tv Real Money With Ali Velshi Al Jazeera October 12, 2013 5:30am-6:01am EDT
show, the christie's auction house, colored diamond make up less than 5% of world production. more on that and all our news stories on aljazeera.com. velshi." >> consumer confidence drops to an all time low. will americans start closing their wallets right before the holidays, plus making sense of interest rates. why most of us want to refinance mortgages now and how craft beer makers are brewing up innovative ways to raise money. i'm tony harris in for ali velshi, and this is real money. >> this is "real money" and you
are the most important part of the program. so join our life conversation for the next half hour by using the hash tall aj real money on twitter. less than eight days before a debt ceiling meltdown. your elected leaders have not agreed to , but post sides are talking again. the problem, that may not be enough to placate the american consumer, people like you and me who are the backbone of this country's economy. sentiment fell to the lowest since january. hundreds of federal workers have been furloughed and many more continue to work without pay. millions more are just plain worried that the government crisis could implode the entire economy, a real possibility if the u.s. starts to default on its debt.
two-thirds of all economic activity comes from consumer spending. people like you and me going out and shopping in that vain, the fact that retail sales rose by 2.3% should give us pause. the back to school season is seen as a good indicator of what retailers should expect for the important holiday shopping season, and it doesn't look good. on thursday house republicans presented president obama with an offer to raise the debt ceiling but only temporarily until november 22nd. in exchange both sides would commit to far-reaching budget negotiations over the next six weeks. for most americans that sounds like more uncertainty coming out of washington, and fear of the unknown affects the decisions we
make with our money. for more on that let's go to stacey tisdale. >> reporter: poet maya angelou said people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but they will never forget how you made them feel. >> hesitant, anxious, concerned, not quite knowing which way the future is going to unfold, and a lot of uncertainty around finances as we go through these transfer imaginations. >> reporter: and how people feel has a direct impact on their spending habits. >> and at a time of uncertainty will kind of harbor their resources, close down their spending, because very conservative and constrained in their planning and their ou outlook. >> reporter: according to gallop daily, americans spent $84 a day in september, down from $95 a day in august.
>> i'm seeing a huge emotional reaction among the general publis public. >> reporter: the reason why you should care, consumer spending is 70% of the economy growth. >> throughout the year we've seen people starting to feel better about their job security and their over all financial situation. just when it looks like the economy m.i.t. start to get cracks you now have thes starts to get traction,this hap. >> reporter: predictability. stability, sense of sufficiency. meaning if something goes wrong we need to feel confident there is enough cash to pay the bills. right now washington is getting failing grades on all three.
[ buzzer ] >> people feel their concerns are being heard, cared for and responded to, we will calm down. that of course, will affect the economy. >> reporter: stacey tisdale, al jazeera, new york. >> business owners across all industries are already feeling the squeeze of the impasse, you may remember doug from the dc area. just as the government shutdown was beginning, doug felt losing thousands of customers would weigh on the importing industry. it's down 40 purse since the shutdown began. he's co-founder of red hook lobster d.c. nearly two weeks ago you were concerned about food truck sales as a result of the shutdown. what has happened since then? >> well, tony, it's got ten
steadily worse. we've seen the business dry up in the three or four places where federal workers used to work. those trucks that were working interest have now moved to the other places where trucks are. so now instead of having 15 trucks in a place you have 25 trucks in a place, and everybody is really suffering. >> what is the big seller for these trucks, and are people changing their buying habits? >> absolutely. with. suite's truck in particular, their business is down more than the savory trucks. on our trucks we've seen typical price point menu item as a delicious maine lobster roll that sells for $15. people are opting for our shrimp roll, and our ticket prices are going down as a result that ha have. >> so how much frustration is being expressed among your
owner-operators? >> i can't begin to describe it. in d.c. we went through a huge ordeal getting regulations in place. the frustration now with respect to the shutdown are beyond what we were feeling over the past three years with respect to that. our customers-- >> no, no, go ahead, your cus your customers are? >> now it's only about the shutdown and people are fed up, frankly, from what we were hearing. >> do you expect some trucks to go out of business as a result of what is happening in washington? >> reporter: yes, unfortunately that's going to be the case. one truck has shutdown in the duration of the shutdown, and other trucks have stopped going
out as often, and unfortunately the timing on this is really bad because food truck industry in dc is very seasonal, as you might imagine, and people try to save money as they go into the winter season when business is much slower, and they're not going to have that source of funding to carry them through. >> how is red hook lobster planning for uncertainty? >> well, we're doubling our efforts out in the suburbs where we think the impact will be less than in dc, although we're frustrated there as well because the suburbs as you know have a lot of government contractors, and their furloughs . >> hopefully it won't last too
much longer and the two sides at least are talking. come back and give us an update with where things stand. >> love to do it. doug povich from washington, d.c. uncertainty is a word that gets thrown around a lot. business leaders say it stops them from hiring, and consumers may not spend as much because of it. can you measure uncertainty? we have an indetective that does just that. it's called the undernty endecks, and it has been spike recently. >> hi. >> we're talking about feelings here. how do you measure uncertainty? what are the components involved in this type of a measurement? >> reporter: we have a few components. another component is looking at
the tax code and the uncertainty there based on the number of taxes that are set to expire , and the third component, i was looking at the number of news articles that has written about economic policy on uncertainty every day and every month. let's take a look of your three-month chart of your i can decks, and tell us why it showed and why it spiked in october. that's where we see the red dot on the chart. >> yes, absolutely. coming into the first quarters of this year. we see the elements of the fiscal cliff. since then with the talk of the government shutdown and the government actually shutting down and us getting closer and closer to potential breach of
the debt ceiling we see this index begin to tick back up again day by day. the longer this goes on, and especially if we get close to reaching the bent dealing the index will shoot up and it could have very negative consequences for the broader committee. >> let's take a look at the one-year shot that shows the biggest spike is the biggest jump since january, walk us through this chart. >> yes, as i said there were huge discussions in late yea year 2012. doing taxes, spending, and weighty government issues. a lot of those got resolved early in the year with the imposition of the i sequester in february, and the unemployment
taxes, fica taxes. we saw this number drop precipitously. as of this month we see the right back up. in september, and as we got closer and closer to the government shutdown, and when the full numbers come out in october, we're going to see a higher level. >> so you trust it, and should people take a little faith and trust of what you're doing? >> we've done the he pest job as possible with automated and readings, and it's a pretty a pretty good indicator in the future. >> of course, we're talking about feelings here. scott, appreciate your time. thanks for being on "real money." and coming up, why more
driving the renewed interest in refinancing. >> reporter: homeowners looking to reduce their monthly loan payment with a brisk refinancing trade in april an. but the refinancing rush hit the kids after the federal reserve announced it could start easing back on its $85 billion a month bond-buying program later in the year. >> we'll ease the the pressure on the accelerator. >> consumers brace for the fed to start tapering b yo . but the fed kept its foot on the gas instead. market celebrated.
30-year mortgage rates dipped slightly. the refinancing indetective is still trending right ward with refinancing accounting of 64% of all mortgage applications. al jazeera, new york. >> robert, a banker and homeowner and refinancing. he works with programs in ten states around the country. what is driving this? >> i think it's a combination of the ten-year rebounding a little. >> what do you mean by saying the ten-year rebounding. >> the ten-year treasury, the yield is indicative to how the mortgage interest rates go. we found in may, we were a caught a little off guard with a spike in the ten-year treasury, 50 ticks up which caused a sudden increase in mortgage rates. >> what do you think caused that
up tick? >> i think it's when the fed and bernanke spoke, and spoke of-- >> tapering, right. >> when the bonds stop the rate starts to rise. >> we're talking abouting the tapering of the stimulus plan from the federal reserve. >> it would cause interest rates to rise and it's a lot of speculation. that's what it comes down to. when people system late that the rates are going up, they start to rise. when the ten-year start to rise. we see the ten-year at 1066 and then 292. and then september 18th they had another meeting, and we were all hiding under our desks with helmets on because we didn't know what might happen. consumers ask, where has the market gone? >> they called you on the phone? >> oh, yes, where are the rates going? we don't have a crystal ball but
we plai explain to them that we don't know where the markets are going. but september 18th they did announce that the tapering would not subside. >> because unemployment was still a bit too high. >> i would love to give you--i don't want to hide behind the stage here but the way it seemed to happen was there was a drastic decrease in the rates. people who were shopping for mortgage that didn't proceed said hold on, now that the rates have dipped, let me do it now before i can't do it. again, we don't know what the future brings. >> what is your advice right now? someone calls you tomorrow-- >> correct. >> someone calls you monday. what is your advice for them? >> i think money is still very inexpensive. i think there are some aggressive loan programs out there that helps homeowners in need which are less reliant on some of the credit stuff and
some of the loan to value where some of their homes are submerged underwater. but there are still great products. the rates are too low and there are a lot of opportunities to refinance. they see it as only as a savings. people who are better financial situations may want to reduce their terms from a 30 to 15 where the rates are still 3.5%. >> at the moment business is pretty good? >> you know, it was a wild ride. may, june, july was a wild ride. i'm seeing a surge in refinance applications. we're also seeing the purchases of starting to pick up. >> terrific, terrific, robert, i appreciate your time. thank you for being with us on "real money." >> thank you very much. >> rising mortgage rates took a toll on the nation's biggest home lender last year. wells fargo lending fell 42% from a third earlier. they the bank reported profits
rose and fewer bad loans. meanwhile, huge legal bills took a bite out of profits at the nation's largest bank, jp morgan chase said legal expenses resulted in a loss of $400 million in the third quarter. it's the third loss reported under jamie dimon. the legal bills are partly if the mortgage lender misled. craft brewers are finding creative ways. >> they're small, smart, savvy, they're scrappy. they're going to do what it takes to try to get those dollars in many, many different ways. (vo) al jazeera america we understand that every news
story begins and ends with people. >> the efforts are focused on rescuing stranded residents. (vo) we pursue that story beyond the headline, past the spokesperson, to the streets. >> thousands of riot police deployed across the capitol. (vo) we put all of our global resources behind every story. >> it is a scene of utter devastation. (vo) and follow it no matter where it leads, all the way to you. al jazeera america. take a new look at news.
and to finance that revolution, more small breweries are turning to people who love beer. duarte has the story of these beer backers and the breweries that they love. >> reporter: big ellis brewing got started as many industries do, as homebrewers. >> we were happying o happy doie ended up with all this beer. we couldn't drink it all ourselves, or shouldn't, we were told. >> reporter: so they made a plan. >> our business plan and determined opening a brewery was a bad idea. >> financially speaking. >> opening a brewery was a great idea. >> reporter: even before they had product to sell they would have to funds months of rent, ingredients and other costs. they decided to sale beer shares.
each share comes with bottles each month for six months, an every changing variety. they sold 90 shares to friends, family and wider brew loving community. they opened their brewery in long island city new york in june and plan to offer more shares this january. julia craft beer program director for the brewer's association said community based initiatives. >> they're small, savvy, scrappy, they're going to do what it takes to get those dollars in many different ways. >> reporter: that includes going to crowd funding website. both sides say they've seen an influx of brewers seeking funding through their platforms. >> this is the future home of the grapevine craft brewery. >> reporter: he hoped to move his operation out of this barn
into a new building in grapevine, texas. backers pledged money to his campaign in exchange from everything from swag to free beer for life. he didn't just meet his goal. he exceeded it raising more than $61,000. >> i don't want to say we were shocked because we knew we had a lot of community support, but we also work worked and were overwhelmed with the money we got. >> reporter: it allowed humble to set aside 5% of future profits for charity. that was a big selling point for their top sponsor troy morgan. >> i'm actually a community owner. >> reporter: a small business owner in his own right. he pledged $10,000 to the campaign. for his contribution he doesn't get an equity stake in the company. he gets his company name, pan tech design, on the opportunity to work with great vine's brew for design a cold branded beer.
and the personal perks aren't half bad, either. >> yes, it is fortunate that i have been given free beer for life. >> reporter: through are a few down sides to these fund raising schemes. not raising enough money for one. if you don't meet your goal you don't get the funds. in many ways that can serve as a market focus group for budding businesses. >> if you're not able to raise the funds then that might not be telling you you're not tapping the right people or spot or business model you've chosen needs to be adjusted. >> reporter: and it doesn't necessarily guarantee business success either. the brewery association report reports 409 opened, and 43 closed. >> reporter: there are many pulling for this method of fundraiser. >> i feel like people want to
invest in something that they know something about, and you know, beer, everybody can relate to beer. >> the whole idea of having more, better beer is always a good thing. >> al jazeera. >> the government shutdown poses a new challenge for the small businesses. grapevine craft breweries said he's still waiting for his application to be processed. if he's not able to open in late november he stands to lose $100,000. all right. that's our show. i'm tony harris in for ali velshi. thanks for watching real money.