tv Real Money With Ali Velshi Al Jazeera October 21, 2013 5:30am-6:01am EDT
>> the second part will be on tuesday and we will visit u.s. center for disease control to find out if a hope for a cure is implement and go to al jazeera.com and al jazeera. >> ali: fed wofederal workers ak on the job but millions of americans are looking for work. america's working poor. >> they are highly educated but struggling to make ends meet. >> plus craft brewers are looking at ways to make money. i'm ali veshi and this is "real money." >> welcome to "real money" you are the most important part of
the show. >> congress found away to end the government shutdown and get workers back on the job. but millions of americans remain unemployed. and as far as we know the unply unemployment rate is below 6%. the september's job report is scheduled for release on tuesday. >> the job growth has been inconsistent with big gains in one month offset by another month. we should add 200,000 or more net new jobs a months. that means the jobs added and the jobs su sub strablghtd trac. well tuesday's job's report will kick off the release of a flood of other data that was backed up in washington. ahead of that report i asked
austin for his insight on the job market. he is the former chairman of the president's council offed a adv. >> austin good to see you. i'm going to spare you and the viewers from any further discussion of a sense of a shutdown and the debt ceiling debate. let's have you fill in the blank for us this is an important time in our economy. >> okay. >> we need to know what is happening and what consumers are feeling. >> we had government retail numbers that were delayed. we'll get those. we have other supporting non-governmental evidence that the economy is starting to weaken. we are going to get this data now that the government is back open. but most of the date a data we e going to get is applicable to
before the shutdown began. the real impact of the shutdown is not going fo to be felt untie get later data. and the in things that are moore reareal-time like the consumer confidence numbers what we were seeing is not real good. in 2011 we had the second biggest drop ever. bigger than 9/11 and only lehmann was bigger. >> why, yo austin do consumers o feel disconnected in the first place? >> that is a great way to put it, but for whatever reason there is a broad feeling an consumer sen sentiment if therea disfunction in washington that does not bode well for the economy. >> that was in 2011. it took four months before it
returned to the depressed level before the crisis sise crisises. we saw over two weeks the biggest two-week drop even bigger than the episode of 2011. >> wow! >> so we don't know that that automatically translates into lower retail sales. and it's correlated. if it has that fo four or five months persistence the fact we'll have the same fight again in three or four months it does not bode well for the economy. >> we are heading into the holiday shopping time. we flowe know it does come back. >> let's look at ea other mattes including joc jobs. >> we are gaining jock jobs ande months are better than other. what kind of impact do you think
we'll see? we'll see lower job numbers because there were people put out of work. >> you and i have talked about job numbers on a monthly basis for a long time. >> yep. >> i would say my feeling was and the fed had correctly viewed as of it's last decision that the economy, yes it was growing but the growth rate was slowing. and it wasn't looking that tremendously good. and the fiscal drag coming from the sequester and coming from others was having a negative impact. higher rates was having a negative impact on housing. so the jock jobs numbers won't s good as we wanted them to be. and that is before the downturn or the shutdown. once you add the shutdown we obviously add a significant number of government workers, contractors and people who rely or rely on the government on an economic basis that is going to
be a negative. and if you add on top of that, if there turns out to be a negative hit on consumer spending because people were uncertain. i feel that could not drive us into recession but knock us into a negative loop on jobs for months. yoi had a conversation with the president of the home buildsers association. he felt that that actually has a more negative impact on people that are ready to buy a home than interest rates do. i hope that is not true. but if he said that we have to take that seriously. because he has a close exposure ito what happens in the market place. if that is not bad enough interest agents are ar -- rates. you have seen a decline in new home purchases in what looked
like one of the strongest parts of the economy to something that is so so. so-so. we have to keep an eye on this because the impact of the shutdown and the fight of the shutdown. >> i never wish for a bad economy and i never wish for the numbers to be the wrong way. i wonder if we are going to face this again in a few months the numbers may make everybody involved in the discussion on capitol hill may think twice of dragging us through this another time. >> you wish it would. i fear the numbers they actually care about are the poll numbers. >> maybe they will be less willing to do this again. >> you want to see how the ups and downs of washington are eye affecting the economy. the retailers are cautious on their spending an and hiring as they approach the holiday sale
shopping season. >> the retailers created 400,000 jobs over the last year alone. i think retail is the first to feel the effects. retail is the front line. i think we have our trigger on the pulse of the economy in general. there are concerns that reports from the front line are not looking very strong. retailers expect to add 700,000 temporary workers during the make or break holiday season and some earn half of their annual sales. that is down from 750,000 last year. >> if household sentiments slumps heading into the holiday season, i would expects household spending on holiday gifts and travel to be slow and theed a ver adverse effects of t economy will ri riple out to otr
areas as well. >> the international counci couf shopping centers found 40% scaled back on their spending as a result of the direct or indirect effect of the government shutdown. >> when there is something goings ogoingon in poll politicn turn in sales. >> the government shutdown is on the minds of our u.s. customers. we are following this closely. >> knowing uncertainty is not good for consumers or businesses or the job market. >> how the price of asocieties d stocks and bonds and houses move over time. were award wardeed the nobel pre this week.
eugene fama and lars ha sens and robert shiller shared the nobel price. >> shiller showed you can show how prices morp move broadly ovr time. they can predict irrational behavior in the markets. shiller is famous for predicting the chap collapse of housing in. that led to the global recession hansen came up with a map to test out the the theories arouns not the type of map you know from high school. he had the shiller home price index. i spoke to him earlier in the week whether you should tune out market forecasters when you are making your decisions. >> i i think the u.s. market is somewhat high. it's not as good of an investment as it was in other years.
it's not terrible. the basic insight is don't worry day-to-day unless you have some special knowledge, and you probably don't. there are better things to worry about. you are married to a psychologist, you have ye writtn on bu buy behavior economics. what role does behavior play in this. you have written about it as a science but it in fact is how people feel. this is what separates me from gene fama. we are all interested in psychology. but they have a view it's not really that important. this view has not been resolved in my view the main reason for the fluctuations for the stock market are psychological or sociological. >> the last time you were on the
show we talked about housing. >> you are associated with housing and you have written about housing and your name is on the shiller housing index. and you are reluctant to give a view of what housing will look like in america in the coming year do you have more certainty on that? >> i have been trying to figure it out. i have a different approach than my two co-winners. >> i have been doing co-surveys comparing attitudes that people have. come pairingcomparing the attite boom years of 2003 to 2005. people are back in that mind-set but most of them aren't. people's expectations are know the that strong for the market. i think it won't develop into something. >> i'm using a me method of research that is not fama
methods. i think it works and i think you can learn something. you can never be too confident in what the markets can do. >> i'in that sense i'm in with them and these markets are hard to predict. >> let's talk about the award has it sunk in yet. >> i found out at 6 6:30 when i was getting out of the shower. it was a little hard to blooef. believe. it's not sunk in. the day is a whirlwind and it's like a party day for me i don't know where i am going anymore. >> professor shiller will be teaching a case i class in econs this year j ther. >> there are many professional people in america and many can't make ends meet. >> i would envision i would climb this ladder. as i see i did not climb the ladder i'm in my parents basements. >> why working conditions for part time blo pro fess pr profee
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have no job security and little hope of parlaying their current position into a full time career. therthere thisthis is not a stod or retail workers. >> many part time university professors are struggling too make ends meet and some are leaving being being a bein aca. >> whewhen 39-year-old darren bn became a university professor he never envisioned his career woulwould end on such a low. >> i envisioned i would climb aa ladder and you can see i didn't climb the ladder. he taught college courses and was asked back to teach at san
francisco state university. the problem was as a part-timed a uadded aadded as a part partta adjunct 3r0 pro professor. full time professors ships are scarce. by 200 2009 their ranks had swed to 50%. at two years community colleges 70% of the faculty are part timers. in ohio maria was a month away from the start of classes before she learned whether the course she was contracted to teach would go ahead. >> it creates a dilemma because i don't know how much to
prepare. >> uncertainty is not only the draw back of the part time status. >> innin earning an average of $25 $2,500 a part-time course. >> i have had to stop students before they start telling me personal things you know in the hallway. fed up she has banded with other part time prefessor professors l the field between adjuncts and proposers. propose -- professors raise the condition of their working conditions with banners and novelty items. >> if we hooked up with a fair trade kosher coffee company. and they wear buttons to prod students to ask inquisitive. ask -- questions. questions with important answers
there is a large and growing body of evidence that working conditions forked forked a for. students that take classes withed withadjuncts. institutions do not set them up for success they hire them at the last moment so they can't prepare for their courses they have no input for the curriculum and they are often teaching off resources they are not familiar with. >> cuts in higher education funding are the main culprit.
money for instruction that would go to faculty is declining and the other expenses is going up. >> the delphi project has shown key issues. >> at san francisco state leslie wong is facing them to free up money for more full time hires. >> i hope the debate gets louder. i do think it's an important key component. it's the key component to answer the question of quality. the discussion is just starting and it will be a few years hopefully that we see some results and changes. but not soon enough for darren brown who is still coming to terms with leaving the profession that he loved. >> teaching was my passion.
i was not rewarded for that. >> darren brown is still living in his parents basements he is trying to mov move on in his li. he is enrolled in a bicycle repair class. >> how craft brewers are finding creative ways to tap investment dollars. >> they are small and smart and savvy and they are scrappy. they are going to do what it takes to get those dollars in many, many different ways. >> that story straight ahead on "real money." >> seven. >> fault lines how children are hired by us agriculture to help put food on america's tables. >> in any other industry kids need to be 16 years old to be able to work. you don't see any of that in agriculture. >> they don't ask, "is she 12?". they just want their job done. >> how many of you get up before 5 o'clock in the morning?
>> time now for some beer. craft beer. today there are 2500 craft beurreries in the united states. those that produce less than of million barrels a year. they sold $10 million of beer in 20,123. the beer industry calls it a revolution. we have the story of the beer backers and the breweries they love. >> robbie and kyle got started as many in the industry do as home brewers. >> we were happy doing be it. we also ended up with all of this beer. and we couldn't necessarily drink all of it ourselves, at least we shouldn't we were told. >> they made a plan. we did a business plan and determined opening a brewery was a bad idea.
>> financially speaking. financially. >> opening a brewery is a great idea. eveidea. >> even before they had a product to sell. they decided to sell beer shares. instead of equity in the company each share comes with two 750 millio750millilitre bottles. they sold 9 try 9 90 shares tos and family. they open their brewery in long island city, new york in june an plan to offer more shares this january. julia says community based fund-raising initiatives are a good fit for up start breweries. >> they are small and smart and savvy and scrappy.
>> that is like fundable and indie go go. who charges a flat fee. they have an influx of brewers seeking fund being through their platforms. >> brewer gary humble hoped to movie himove his operation out s barn into a new building in grapevine texas. backers had exchanged swag and free beer for life. he didn't meet his goal. he exceeded it. he had $61,000. >> i was shocked. i knew we had a lot of community support and we were shocked and overwhelmed at the kind of support we got. >> the money raised allowed humble to set aside 5% of the future profits 230 for charity. that was a selling point for
troy morgan. >> i'm actually a community owner. >> small business owner in his own right morgan pledged $10,000 in the campaign. he gets his company name on the vats and the opportunity to work with grapevine's brewer to design a co-branded beer. and the personal perks are not half bad either. >> it is fortunate that i have been given free beer for life. >> there are down sides for these fund-raising schemes. not raising all of the money required for one. on several web sites if you don't meet your goal you don't get the funds. hertz says that could serve as focus group for budding businesses. >> if you are not able to raise the funds that may tell you are not tapping the right people or the spot busines or business moy
have to be adjusted. >> brewer association reports that 409 breweries opened last year and 43 closed. among the craft drinkers there are many pulling for these new methodses of fund-raising. >> it's working forker for othed so get out there and do it. i feel that people want to invest in something they know something about. and everyone can relate to beer. >> the idea of having more, better beer is always a good thing. >> ali: brewers magazine estimates that there are 450 crowd funding up starts. including a few devoted to the craft brewing industry. that is our show for this week i'm ali veshi thanks for joining us. ♪