tv Real Money With Ali Velshi Al Jazeera November 22, 2013 3:30am-4:01am EST
with the dreamlister. landing at the wrong effort. it was so big and the jabara airport so short there were doubts it would take off again. but it did. a reminder to keep up to date on the website aljazeera.com. this is "real money." you are the most important part of the show, so join our live conversation, for the next half our on twitter at a.j. "real money." i reads them all. america, you have done it. your reluctance to part with the mighty dollar will likely translate into deep cuts. target, saw its quart early profits plunge 46% in the three months heading into november.
compared to the same period last year. and weak sales have already hit other big box retailers. sears which owns and runs sears and k mart shows aunderstand nod quarterly losses from lower sales. last week, both control's and wal-mart, which is america's biggest retailer by far, reported disappointing sales in the three months between august and october. what is more, all four big box changes have revised their holiday outlook lower which probably means big discounts all around for holiday shoppers. a new report put out by i.h.s. global insight, an economic forecasting firm, predicts that this year's holiday season will see sales rise just 3.2% compared to last year. now if that's true, it would make for the weakest growth rate, the slowest growth rate for holiday sales since 2009. wac when the country was just coming out of a recession. now, all of those lower forecasts have the big retailers scrambling to attract your shopping dollars. they are about to run aggressive t.v. promotions and are
starting their discounts early. wal-mart will start offering holiday discounts this friday. a full week before the traditional holiday season kick off. and all the evidence shows they are going to have a hard go of it. not only are americans reluctant to spend too much of their extra cash, the retailers themselves have to contend with a shorter holiday shopping season. one week shorter, because thanksgiving falls this year at the tail end of november. unprecedented. that's how joel pines who has been covering the industry for 20 years described this rush. he says he has never seen deals like the ones that soaring are offering up already. and while a huge voluming of super sales is a great thing for consumers it is not necessarily a bad thing for retailers. which is a consulting firm whose clients include scores of retailers across all categories. joel joined me now from dallas, thank you for being with us. >> thank you for having me. good to be here.
>> you're looking at somewhere between 4.1, and 4.9% compared to a year earlier. >> yeah, i think we are slightly more optimistic that the ihs numbers. i think we are feeling lit be at the lower end of that range, we think lit be between 4.45%. which is the incredible glut of promotional activity, that has already started to take place. which really will create a sense of urgency, that hasn't existed. that will drive consumers into the stores. >> that was a remarkable -- that is when everything was going bad, and retailers didn't have time to plan ahead, so they had too much inventory, and it was flying off the shelves. they were giving it away, what's the urgency? what is going on with the consumer? we know housing prices are still good, we know the stock market is still
going, we know the consumers did seem to go okay, where is this pessimism coming from? >> what is interesting about this year, is it is really a tail of two consumers. the top third make up about 60% of total consumption. and they are fielding pretty healthy, with the stock market and housing prices. but the bottom two-thirds can make up only about 45% of consumption, they are not feeling healthy at all. and what is happened is that the mass retailers in particular, who cater to that income demographic, have realized that it is going to be tougher and tougher to attract a consumer dollar this year, so they have gone very aggressively into the promotional activity that is underpinning this strategy, and then it become as slippery slope. right. >> everyone is fighting for that all mighty dollar, so the deals in the mass area, and with the super stores in the big boxes are just so strong, that it's attracting consumption away from mid tier and the luxury segment, so they will have to be more competitive and the slope slips even more.
>> and it ier for them. why do you think it is not a bad thing for retailers. even if the sales numbers at the high end, let's just assume it came in at 4.9% higher but so much of sit because of sales, then the companies don't make as much, so it isn't often not boater for them. >> that is absolutely true. that it can hurt on the margin line, but the smart retailers that have gotten ahead of this, and plans for this season, understand that where is customer spends more of their total dollar in that store. so first of all they protect their share, and second darely, they are able to pick up some extra points of margin on merchandise that maybe isn't as heavily promoted but the consumer buys while they are in buying their $2.99 television. >> and the slippery slope is in part because we keep talking about the fact that it is going to
be promotional, people wait for it, they don't necessarily head out on the fist weekend after black friday, or on black friday, and maybe they wait because they think come the last week before christmas they will give away the house. >> yak tell you of 20 years of living in the retail space, every single year we hear about the fact that the black friday time period will be promotional, and retailers will be fighting for share, i have never seen a promotional climate as aggressive as the climate that we are seeing this year. already, and it isn't even thanksgiving week. joel, good to talk to you. let's get a read on the holiday season, with someone with a lot at stake. she is one of 200 small retailers in ported land who call themselves little boxes and who banded together to encouraging consumers to shop in small stores on
black friday. debbie, good to see you, you just heard joel talking about this, he says if the big boxes get promotional, it puts pressure on people like yo, because you have to follow suit, how do you avoided getting into that rut? and stay able to make some money. >> especially a local business. we do not necessarily cut prices at this time of year. portland is very strong on shopping and supporting their locally owned business, so with little bosses and events like that that we support and are part of, our customers come in for those because they want to support their small businesses and a lot of businesses like mine, in our area, sell strongly because our items are made by an individual, or a small maker, and they are made either here in portland or in the u.s. that is what our customer is looking to buy. >> sorry to interrupt you. we
often hair that -- the story from retailers in smaller places. less urban places. portland is a city, why do you think in portland these little boxes or buying local has more of an impact? >> well, i think the citizens of portland, and the people that shop here appreciate things that are made by an individual during the recession and even now, our customers tell us that if they are going to spend their money, they would like to spend it on items that are made by a person, or their -- it's a smaller line, and that therefore supporting our community, our shop, and the maker of the item. what's your since, how your consumer has been doing through the course of this year? and what is likely to happen with your business? >> this year, we have seen -- part of different business groups that this -- our seams have really gone up. in this last year, during
the recession, we grew slowly, at a very small but even pace. but in this last year, we have taken a big growth in sales as have other business owners that are the same size of me. sow customers are coming in. looking fur items and getting ideas earlier, and we think lit be a strong season. >> does the growth you expect to have, sounds pretty good, is in step with what the economy and doing? why do you expect to have such a strong holiday season? i think the -- more so in the home industry, and also with other stores and businesses. so we are hearing that from our consumers. >> all right, let me ask you, looks like a great store, you say you make a lot of hand made stuff, what the average price of things you sell, and how much does the average person buy from you. >> we sell anything from
a card at $5 up through handbags at $300 range. our average price is -- our purchase from a customer is around 25 to 45 dollars. but everything in our store is made by an individual maker or a small design group. over half of the items are made in portland, and the bulk of them are made in the u.s. >> all right, then you will be my stop when i come out to portland. good luck, and i hope your wishes the r the holiday season come true. in portland. all right, microsoft is trying to upstage rival sony with a new video game console, and media system rolled into one. the x box 1 goes on sale early friday, or tonight. a week after son no. roll out its console, it sold 1 million units in the first 24 hours.
microsoft product, priced at $499. is microsoft's first gaming console in eight years, can you believe it. it includes perks like a blue ray player, a voice command capability, and facial recognition. was those prices make it $100 more than the play station four. i would tell you what the heck the federal reserve does, and how it effects how much you end up paying for a loan, and plus, an incubator that cooks up entrepreneurs. that story and more as "real money" continues. keep it here.
>> start with one issue education... gun control... the gap between rich and poor... job creation... climate change... tax policy... the economy... iran... healthcare... ad guests on all sides of the debate. >> this is a right we should all have... >> it's just the way it is... >> there's something seriously wrong... >> there's been acrimony... >> the conservative ideal... >> it's an urgent need... and a host willing to ask the tough questions >> how do you explain it to yourself? and you'll get... the inside story ray suarez hosts inside story weekdays at 5 eastern only on al jazeera america >> al jazeera america is the only news channel that brings you live news at the top of every hour. >> here are the headlines at this hour. >> only on al jazeera america.
yell help's nomination to replace ben byrne naqi. the full senate will vote after the thanksgiving break, maybe as soon as the second week in desks most observers expect yellen who is currently the fed vice chair to be approved and become the first woman to lead the world's most important central bank. now the senators who voted against her nomination, have said it is essentially a protest against the fed's on going efforts to stimulate the economy. yell season a key architect of this huge bond buying program known as quantitative easing, that some critics fear will spark inflation, or asset bubbles. now to better understand the debate over the $85 billion a month bond buying campaign, it helps to understand what exactly the fed does, and why it matters to you. when wood row wilson signed the federal reserve act into law, in the decades since then,
the fed and its chairman have remained independent from politics but not immune from criticism and second guessing. bank runs and financial panics. a permanence solution to the nation's financial woes was fiercely debated. five deal was struck just days before christmas 1913. >> the modern fed had a duel mandate. the central bank balances those goals through it's monetary policies. when there's little or no economic growth, the fed muchs money into the economy, making credit more available. effectively lowing interest rates. this spurs borrowing, leading to more business development, and higher employment. when the economy looks like it is getting too hot, the fed takes money out. sending interest rates up, and making credit more expensive in a bid to push down incongratulation. eight time as year the federal bank president
meet to discuss policy. what they decide effects everything from what you pay for a mortgage, to credit card rates. some have reputations as dubs meaning they worry more about economic weakness, why hawks are more concerned with curbing inflation. the feds personality is defined by one person, the chairman, or chairwoman whose event word is parsed by wall street and investors trying to get a read on where interest rates are heading. in the 1980's credited with ending inflation in the early 80's. allen greenspan served for 20 years and was noun for inscrutable language. two bank and its chairperson often attract criticism. greenspan for example, was blamed in some quarters for not reigning in the use of derivatives before the crisis.
i made a mistake in presumes that the organizations, specifically banks and others were such that they were capable of protecting their own shareholders and the equity in the firms. >> ben also faced second guessing, it is all a part of running the most powerful bank in the world. al jazeera. >> and for those of you keeping store, there have been 14 chairman of the federal reserve in the first 100 years of its commission tepees. okay, almost five years later u.s. government is getting out of general motors, it plans to sell the last of its stake in the auto maker, about 2% by the end of the year. that's a few months earlier than expected and it is at a loss to taxpayers. take a look. the original bail out, of market conditions stay about the same, the
treasury expects to collect $40 million. they have been selling the stock along the way, leaving tax dollars with a $10 million tab. they have never said it expected to get the money back, in fact, it said it never expected to get all of it back. is idea was to save the company and millions of jobs. and will allow the company to pay diffidents to investors. okay, coming up, not for science experiments for nurturing small business ideas. we will take you there when "real money" continues. >> we find the fault lines that run through communities. >> the shooting happened about 30 minutes ago. >> companies... >> the remains of the fire are still everywhere here. >> the powers that be at home and around the world... >> not only do they not get compensation but you don't even have to explain why? >> well thats exactly what i said. >> we question authority. >> so you said we could get access... >> that's enough! >> ... and those affected.
>> investigative journalism at it's toughest. determining using some sort of subjective interpretation of their policy as to whether or not your particular report was actually abusive, because if it doesn't contain language that specifically threatens you directly or is targeted towards you specifically, they may not consider it abuse. they may consider it offensive. and in that case they just recommend that you block that person. >> i don't want to minimise this, because i mean, there's some really horrible things that are on line, and it's not - it's not just twitter, what has happened through social media and the anonymity of the net is that you see websites, hate-filled websites targetting all sorts of groups, popping up.
consider this: the news of the day plus so much more. >> we begin with the government shutdown. >> answers to the questions no one else will ask. >> it seems like they can't agree to anything in washington no matter what. >> antonio mora, award winning and hard hitting. >> we've heard you talk about the history of suicide in your family. >> there's no status quo, just the bottom line. >> but, what about buying shares in a professional athlete? okay, i am betting at home or at work, you came up to a solution to a problem. what if i told you your solution may be worth millions of dollars. don't believe me? two years ago, found add
company that was inspire bade problem posed in a focus group. the solution to that problem is now a company that's samed at $12 million. joining me now from new york universities incubator where their company was founded, heck low to both of you. >> hi. >> how sit going? >> i live in manhattan, on the west side, and i would like to learn how to play the achordian, what can you do for me? >> well, we work with hundreds of local providers of local education, and certainly there are a few of them that teach achordian lessons so you come to our site, you search for the class you are looking to learn, and we will show you a list of the classes you can take, and you can sign up. >> i did that, i went to course horse, and it shows 17 classes some of which have not exactly to do with achordians but there were at least three or four where i could learn how to play an achordian. the problem that somebody asked me about, is there
a place i can go to find all the s.a.t. classes in my area, and you figured out there was, what did you do about it? >> well, we immediately spoke to schools to understand if they were having trouble filling seats and they were. and then we spoke to consumers and we found out that they were searching like yourself, for achordian classes and not being able to find them. and we launch add site that catalogs all the local information, and now you can search by neighborhoods, schedule, price, whatever your purchase eye tier yeah is. >> rah you still at the business school, or are you just involved with this. >> i'm sorry, can you repeat that. >> are you still at nyu's business school? >> we're still getting an echo. >> my goodness, i think they may be able to hear themselves.
>> there we go. >> you have me back. so -- you were at the business school, and you -- i don't know if you still are, you can tell me, you entered a business competition, one of these things where you go in with your idea, and you won. were you already in this business, or was it just an idea at the time? >> what we had just quit our jobs when the competition kicked off, and it was a greet opportunity for us. about 250 teams enter can he have year, and we thought we are building this business, we might as well jump into the competition and see what we can do. over the course, we receive add tremendous amount of feedback. and we were fortunate enough to walk away with a prize. >> investors often monitor these competitions and are the judges and when somebody wins or they are close to winning investors scoop in and say i want a piece of the action, they did that to you and you said no. >> yes. woe wanted time to figure
it out. is woe took six to eightn't mos to understand the market. get our first wave of customers in. understand what we could do better. goat some great business metrics and then we engaged when we learned more. >> you are not -- neither of you are technical people. you aren't coders website developers. and yet this is a technology thing. yo i have taken all these classes that people can't find easily, is there a lesson in here that you don't have to be a tech person to get in on these companies? >> that's right. the first we that we as founders get from new entire neuros is how can i find a tech co-founder, is and the he is son has been you don't need one to start the company, and it will be impossible to find one until you build something that is worth working towards. so as we did, you can
find a development firm to build out your idea, and that's what attracts that development to your business. >> i use the term incubator a few times. bro mote this can segment, tell me what it is? >> slur, it is a collection of companies that are are all in the early stage of their life cycle and it is an incredibly nurturing supportive environment, where you have an incredible mentor network. so whatever subject you need help with, there is a knowledge pool that you can tap. and the great thing is that because all the companies are at the same level in their life cycle we can hop on over to our neighbors and ask about hey, have you dealt with this, and chances are they have, and they have figured it out. >> i love the fact that i am talking to you right now, because i suspect this will lead to big things and you guys are going to be responsible for it. the co-founders of course work, by the way, if you
live in manhattan, i am going do learn how to play an achordian because of you. >> thank you for joining us. today on twitter, i asked is today a good time to start a business, wages too high, employee benefit tuesday high, gary you are a killjoy. morgan tweets i think right now is the best time. best way to build up middle class america. tell me what you think or leave us a comment on facebook. no real prize, i just said that. final thoughts the fcc, the federal communications commission says it is going to propose letting people talk on their cell phones while flying. which i love. but the talking thing, that's way different than quietly playing candy crush during takeoff. take it from me, i am probably the most disruptive force you will ever encounter on public
transportation. people regularly tell me to shut up, or they stair me down when i am talking on the phone. i don't know if 200 people talking in a long metal tube for hours on end is wise. i have often said i would not want to sit next to me while i'm on the phone. but, if texting is safe, than so is talking and i suppose there's no good reason not to let people talk. it is public transportation, you want silence, fly private. even if the f.c.c. approves it would still have to get the okay by airline, and they are very cautious about this kind of thing. it could make many customers very unhappy, my solution is let people pay extra to sit in a talking section. why some investors are betting this may be the last christmas for toys r us. thank you for joining us.
>> welcome to aljazeera.com, we have a look at the top stories. >> in latvia 12 are dead at least after a supermarket collapsed. it was located in the northern part of the country. dozens are fear said trapped. no word on what caused the collapse. >> on capitol hill, senate democrats use the nuclear option - stopping phil busters with a simple majority making it easier to appoint presidential nominees. the move mass been called devastating by rep kuns. >> in london - modern day slavery. three women held captive in a home for 30 years. two suspects