tv Real Money With Ali Velshi Al Jazeera February 1, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
preparing the world for the next pandemic like ebola. bill gates puts his money where his mouth is. i'm ali velshi, and this is "real money". so the obama administration is floating a plan that would open up the coast for oil, virginia to georgia, opened to oil companies, long after the president leaves office. oil companies are barred in the atlantic from drilling. in about six months, that's the first question i posed
when i spoke to the chief economist and director of global energy and economic at the internet energy agency. he worked for o.p.e.c., and is one of the most respected figures in the world. "forbes" magazine says he is one of the most powerful people in the energy industry. he said we should enjoy low prices. >> my expectation is by 2015, upward pressure on the price, 2015, oil production will be cut globally by 15%. prices. >> yes, in north america. this is the implication on the production. downward pressure. second lower oil prices means we
are guzzling reserve price, and this gives upward pressure on the demand. this comes together, lower pressure on the production, upward on the demand. after a year, upward trend in prices. which is what many expect. >> do you feel in 2016 the upwart pressure... >> it tips, definitely. >> let me guess, they are asking the world bank to consider not doing so. off. >> this is an excellent opportunity. in china, india, indonesia, and the government making good mood. it is a burden on the budget
giving incentive for the consumers to use energy in an inefficient way. if we vote for the middle east or producers, or importers, india, indonesia, malaysia, very important to phase out the subsidies. it's good for the climate change. it will reduce them. politically. >> i can tell you something today, giving you a number. $500 billion. logic is hear. subsidies for the poor. according to our analysts, more than 10% of the subsidies go to mid to high income levels, less than 10 to 20%. >> energy. >> exactly. the poorer you have, you have no energy. people in the work today, in the developing work. sources.
>> what do you think is the motivation of saudis not to cut production. on one hand they can afford this. and the title, the oil that we are getting from shale in the state and oil sands, that needs a price in the 50s, if not higher to make it work. is that a motivation, they want to get the market share back. >> there's many discussions that occurred personally. i thought the main topic of davos, i live in paris, if not terrorism, it's the oil price. here, the oil collapse is conspicuous. my belief is as a result of the market forces, saudis, they let the market go and let's see what picture
it shows us, and i believe the picture we'll see in a couple of months of time will producers. >> let's talk about that. what does that mean for the future of production. every politician running for office in america talks about energy efficiency for north america, independence. the oil sands is controversial. at $40 a barrel and lower, it production. >> there'll be a decline 15% globally in investments this year, and north america is about 30%. what happen to north america i expect is mergers and acquisitions. small fish is smaller countries.
the prices will not stay at these levels. i do not expect it, it will be a big disaster. what you see is that it slows down. i should say one thing, we mix two things together. u.s. shale oil is good for the u.s. it is major net importing country versus saudi arabia. the largest exporting company of the world, the u.s. need less. what about asia, europe - they need oil and there is one thing... >> that is why - this is why o.p.e.c. was entirely the
decision-maker. now norway dash all these other countries, and the united states produce. >> it will be crucial, and crucial for the oil markets in many decades to come. it is good. other countries you mentioned, the saudis, and the countries are crucial. >> your view is on balance in the united states, employment is getting hit, lay-offs are coming, but on balance, there's a net gain for the united states over the loss. >> from this there are three things - the biggest winner is the united states.
but for us, we turn the page. the energy will come from the shale revolution. it is the biggest winner. russia and nigeria - and there are countries in the middle east, india, china, net oil in the country they are a good use. they can also win from that. for u.s., it's good news it's not been the economic fix the country hoped for. despite cheap oil, the world oil is forecasting lower growth. at present we hear about what we really need to get back on track. tell me what's on your mind:
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and it's not clear for a lot of reasons, including the ability to attract immigrants into the problems. >> the growth was disappointing and the sales tax had a big impact. there was a big spike in consumption, but the drop off lasted more than people expected. from my perspective i'm impressed with prime minister ab, and the deputy prime minister's commitment to the process. it will be hard. look what they have done. i can't imagine another group of leaders would be so bold in terms of monetary policy. for prime minister narendra modi, i told him if the ranking and doing business ranking was based on guzhrat instead of delhi, they'd move from 159th to 50th. i told him that, and after he targeted for all of india to be 50th in the world.
we are working with him. that's the boldness and courage that you need to survive in the counter global world. >> when you look at russia, problems are different. that contraction is because of sanctions and the issues over ukraine and oil, which is part of the - how is the price of oil affected your forecast 2015. positive? >> so the average price of oil is $96 in 2014. if there's a 30% drop in the range of $60. if that happens, the overall economic growth of the world we think will go up. if you predict 33% growth and it goes up half a per cent, that's a one sixth increase in growth, it's substantial. the problem is that there are winners and losers. russia is worried, venezuela is another country. in venezuelan, there was a
company that provided low interest loops, and provided gasoline at a lower price for cuba, haiti, honduras. some relative fragile areas. it's all the countries supporting them. we are focused on providing support, for example, to nigeria. and over the internet. it's a tough situation. we'll try to do everything we can to help with social protection programs. we are standing ready, but there are other examples like india, who will do well in this context, and for the countries that will do well, they'll benefit from the low oil prices. this is a country to get rid of fuel subsidies. we have shown, i.m.f. showed that fuel subsidies have an impact. it's a regressive programme. so what we are saying is take
this opportunity now to focus your support to the poorest, and take the subsidies off. some are moving in that direction. india - it's a great opportunity to do that. >> when the world economic forum started, oxfam came out was a report projecting by 2016 more wealth will be controlled than 99% in the world. that is talked about. it's a serious problem. no one wants to begrudge the wealthy getting wealth. we have probably done a good job with those in the world, those on $1 a day, and $2, we are working on the numbers. the middle class across the world is struggling. it's a global issue. >> it is. the numbers suggest to people that there's something out of kilt here. >> what we have found is that
it's extremely hard to know exactly the incomes of the wealthy, it's hard to get real data. what we have done is said yes, inequality is a good issue. there's an ability of people living on less than $1.20 a day. we are focused on strategies, growth is important, not just any growth. if you focus on the mining industry in a particular country, that is not a rich path. so we are trying to find the jobs. for the bottom 40%, our focus is on what can be developed, growth, economic growth that has an outsized impact on the poor. it you look at the best projection, optimistic scenario - now, i don't know anybody that gets that average over the next 15 years. in that most opt stick scenario, we are not going to get to less
than 30% poverty. we have to change the poverty. in other words every point of the growth has to have a bigger impact on reducing poverty. that is what i do every day next, the gates foundation committed $75 million to fight ebola. i spoke to the woman who heads the foundation to see where the money is going. that's next. starting monday "real money" will air 10:30pm eastern
this week on "talk to al jazeera", a rising star in the ballet world, misty copeland. >> it was the first time i had an identity to be a dancer when the six children raised by a single mother - misty copeland had a difficult childhood. >> i never felt a connection to anything or anyone. i was constantly trying to fit in. >> misty copeland stumbled on to ballet at 13 she had natural talent. >> as soon as i stepped into the ballet studio i