tv Inside Story Al Jazeera November 25, 2015 11:30pm-12:01am EST
held to al jazeera.com. ray suarez is up next with "inside story." have a happy and safe thanksgiving. >> rumblings are growing inside of the republican party establish many. but it's time to oppose donald trump head on. but gaffs and embarrassments and public statements normally considered beyond the pale for major party candidates don't pull the real estate developer and political racky down. they only seem to make him stronger. is trump hasn't been a flash in the pan or a speed-dated and then discarded political fling. he has been run in the polls for month. gop versus the apprentice.
it's the "inside story." welcome to "inside story," i'm ray suarez. earlier this year, republican guests joining us in this it studio said both on the air and off, don't worry about donald trump. some went so far as to say he would be out of the race before the first caucus goers headed out into the iowa snow next february. who is out instead? the once highly touted scott walker, the sitting governor of louisiana, and the former governor of florida, brother and son of presidents labors in trump's shadow, struggling to stay out of single digits. the leading governor of the swing state of ohio isn't far behind jeb bush.
not only worried about trump's candidacy, but worried about his affect on the overall gop effort. makes fun of women's looks, and wants to deport undocumented immigrants, and build a wall with mexico, and insists that muslims in new jersey cheered 9/11 attacks. it's not the face that they wanted to show the voter as he and she paid attention to the voters as the first caucus. >> get him the hell out of here, will you please? >> on saturday, a black lives matter activist interrupted trump in alabama. and security officers appeared to trump and kick the protestor, a response that trump defend. >> maybe he should have been roughed up, because it was absolutely disgusting what he was doing. >> after 9/11, after the attacks on the twin towers, he saw frightening reaction from
muslims nearby. >> i watched in jersey city, new jersey, where thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down. >> but there's no evidence that such celebrations, if any occurred at all, were broadcast on tv. and sil sunday, trump doubled down. >> i saw it. >> provocative and questionable statements have long been a hallmark of trump's campaign. protesters say that trump is stoking racial tensions, and his comments about islam are manipulating people's angst and fears, but it's not just muslims that he tarts. he recently hammered neuro surgeon, bill clinton. surgeon ben carson. >> he said that he has pathological disease, temper and disease.
>> and by pathological, trump added this. if you're a child molester, a sick puppy, you're a child that. >> but trump it speaks the way that regular people speak. not in terms of a neuro for surgeon or a governor or a long time senator. my friend from oklahoma, he just lets it fly, and that's the way most people talk when they're comfortable talking with their pals. >> republican strategists say that trump's abrasiveness and misleading claims are giving a pass right now for other reasons as well. a recent washington poll suggests that 75% of republicans believe that most people in politics cannot be trusted. >> people absolutely believe, and he's no different than any other politician in most people's view, but he says it in a different way. >> even a few of trump's supporters when presenced away from the camera, will acknowledge that his claims are
abit surd. but his sentiments are spot on. >> we have very very stupid people running our country. the illegal immigrants are being treated better than our vets in many cases, and that's sad. >> trump's republican rivals are beginning to ramp up attack ads. and john kasich released this. >> no, i want a database of people who come into the country, we have no idea who these people are. >> analysts say that it's only a matter of time that are filled with political ads that turn trump's political rhetoric against him. >> how it stupid are the people of iowa, how stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap? >> david schuster, aljazeera. >> gop versus the apprentice this time on the program. donald trump may be a first time candidate. but he has been a public figure and a self publicizing one for decades.
his long predicted fade is taking its time getting here. joining us, analyst. and a professor of political science, and a political consultant with knock partners, and bruce haynes, a gop political strategist and founder of purple strategies, and bruce. this candidacy, which we talked about when it started, is showing signs of life that seem to be worrying people in your party a fair amount. >> i would say that's true, and you're right, there was a conventional wisdom that at some point, the wheels are going to fall off of this wagon. well, the wheels are on pretty tight right now, and he's holding steady. i myself said on your show in august that there's going to be a slow leak. i didn't feel it was going to collapse, but i thought that his vote would begin to tail off and go other places. that's not actually happening
to trump, but some of the other candidates. ben carson is seeming to lose a lot of the vote into the ted cruz campus. so the things that he says don't seem to be taking any votes away from him. 25, 30%. >> do you think that it's a matter of time? >> i think that what's going to happen, there's some of trump's vote that's still in his parking lot. it's there now, but it's going to go to someplace else. it could go to cruz, to rubio, to christy, because those voters haven't really engaged in the race. they have watched television, and watched a couple of debates. and all they hear is trump, trump, trump. you ask who they're for, and they're not sure who the candidates r well, i guess i'm for trump because he seems strong in the threats to our country and the things that concern me about the economy culture. >>
professor, is this primary season so unusuala you think that you'll be teaching about it to classes eight and ten years from now? >> oh, i would love to forget it, ray, and i think that we probably will. we need to take a broader perspective on it now. if you look at it historically, if you look at what's happening with trump, it's exactly what happened in 1968. they decided to democratize the process, and the party elite for good reason. the party bosses and people that the party was upset about, but once you do that, you open the floodgates. before 1968, only 10-20 states had a primary, and the party has lost control of its own nomination process. it has not been such a problem when we have had incumbent
presidents or a much smaller bench on either side to pick from. but once we have an enormous bench, and no incumbent running, that's what happens, and that's why we're seeing a huge divide between the establishment republicans and the people on the ground, and unfortunately, my prediction is if donald trump wins or doesn't win the nomination, nobody is going to be satisfied. the establishment is not, and the people on the ground are going to feel, if they go with somebody more establishment "rubio or somebody else, it's the ruin of the party. this is a long time running, and we'll see more of this until we change again in the way that we choose nominees for our major party. >> i'll have you expand on this after the break, but is it not a good idea for democrats to gloat too much? that some of the same things that are bedelving his republican opponents may make
him difficult to run against? >> yes, i agree. he is connecting with people in a way that other politicians aren't. i think that he's popular, as much for what he isn't as what he is. he isn't a typical politician. he isn't politically correct. he isn't particularly calm. he's tapping into an anti-dc, anti-government, amount i dc anger, and that anger is prevalent out there. so i think that democrats would be wrong to assume that if he wins the nomination he'll be easy to beat in 2016, and that's not the case. >> how much attention has trump gotten for his outrageous statement? that black criminals kill the vast majority of murder victims in america, and thousands of muslims in new jersey cheered the collapse of the twin towers? just attached to the brash new yorker himself.
if it doesn't work, they deserve it faux for what they're doing to us. >> you're watching "inside story", and i'm ray suarez. to tell it like some republican insiders tell it, don't donald has moved from candidate to somebody deep in the primaries, to contender. what effect could trump have on the efforts to win back the white house and keep the senate and hang onto recent gains in the house? given the gop postmortem in the 2016 leaks? to reach out to minority
voters, what effect will donald trump have as a sizeable presence in the race? it back with janey and bruce. and janey, is this something that after a time doesn't just affect donald trump and his fortunes? but anybody who is running against him? and anybody wanting to run as a republican candidate for other offices? >> that's what i think is worrying the republican party so much. you know, after 2012, they did their post-mortem, and they know, as we all do who study this, in order to win, they have to appeal more broadly, and you have a primary process now that is working against what they said needed to happen. so it's a big source of trouble for people who want to win the general election on the republican side. that donald trump, in the terms of the way that he's appealing and type of support he has been
able to garner is working against any real chances that the gop has to win the general election, and it's highly election that, if he gets the nomination, that the gop would be able to win. but it was highly unlikely that they were going to win anyway. because the numbers work against them this time around. they were trying to maximize those numbers, but donald trump works in the opposite way. this is an election that the democrats have the upper hand on if things stay the they were and that's so worrisome to the republican party. they have the house and they could lose the senate, but in terms of the presidency, it's highly unlikely that they will capture it in 2016, especially if they nominate somebody like conned conned. >> rick, what's going on had inside of democratic campaigns at this point? in presidential years, they
usually train for fire on each other until the convention, and then start looking across to the other party f you war game trump and a trump campaign that stays active well into next year, how do you run with it and against it? >> anchor: well >> well, to me, i'm a researcher, and to me, donald trump doesn't seem to be hit. every time someone seems to go after him he seems to go up in the polls. things that would take down a normal politician, bankruptcy, and sulting other candidates, and out right lying to the american public, they don't seem to have an affect on him. so as far as how to go after him, i'm not sure, and both the candidates in the republican and the democratic party, i think that right now, that's one of the reasons why you see hilliary clinton and bernie sanders focusing more on their own message, and they're
occasionally reaching out and hitting some of the wilder things that he says, but they're not having much of an affect on his popularity. so they're going to at this point talk about the issues that matter most to them and they will worry about the general election when it comes. >> bruce, a candidate that seems imperious to the attacks on the other side, that would be a gift to republicans, and they don't seem to look at it that way. >> well, i think that we see, there's a tale of the two trumps. there's a trump that says the certain specific things, and things about africans, or mexican americans that scare the pants off of us. but i think what the broad portion of the audience and the panel is alluding to, they just see a guy who is strong and certain, and who projects the kind of strength that they want to see in an uncertain time with terror attacks going on in paris, and america seemingly falling behind in the global economic marketplace, and a
culture in this country that seems to be changing at the speed of light in terms of the kinds of values and the things happening on our campuses right now that we wouldn't fathom when i was in college. and in the midst of that, you see a guy who may not always be right, but he's always certain, and that translates to strength. and that's something in an uncertain time people in all kinds of political environments tend to rally behind. >> what hurts a candidate or a campaign at this early date in the race? it is more than two months before the iowa caucuses. just under a year until election day. and have political pros missed something important about what keeps trump riding high? about the republican voter's attitudes toward politicians and the state of the country? gop versus the apprentice. it's the "inside story."
>> welcome bark to "inside story," i'm ray suarez. maybe you think that the mexicans are going to pay for a 1400-mile border wall, and maybe you don't. maybe you think that the federal government ought to reg illegal citizens. maybe you don't. opinion, matters of fact. and donald trump has been a favorite of fact check websites and editors since his campaign began. if they're to be believed, this first time candidate says a lot of stuff to the stuff that isn't so. but refuting his incorrect statements only seems to make him more popular. if the establishment figures in the republican party cringe at trump, what can they do to oppose a candidate who isn't hurt by being wrong? back to you, you absorb the
lessons of trumpism, and try to apply them in your campaign without being donald trump, no? >> i don't think you can. one thing consultants don't like to admit, we manage around the margins, and it's about the candidates. i think that bruce hit on something very important. donald trump shows strength, and that's what's drawing people. he is an alpha male on that stage. you watch him in the debates, and he commands the stage and the attention, and that's what's moving his numbers. people are drawn to his strength. former bush adviser, matthew dowd recently said that republicans right now would rather have strong and wrong than right and weak. and nobody exemplifies more strong and wrong than donald right. >> so professor, how do you manage this guy, even from his own party or the other side? >> it's an
uphill battle, as has been stated. and my sense, you have to get candidates who are focused on being themselves and selling their conservative message, and i don't think that we have seen candidates do that successfully yet. you look at the latest iowa poll. 58% of iowa republicans say that they may change their mind about who they support. the election is still up for grabs as much as we have the polls. and on the other side, you have unique candidates talking about issues that matter to conservative, whether there's security. and if they can sell those. and we haven't seen that yet. establishment. it would be helpful if some of the fringe candidates dropped out and there was much more focus. i think that democrats are right to do what they're doing,
and they're in the driver's seat if you will at this point, because they're not nearly as fractured. but i would also say that those of us in academia and the media, we also have a responsibility. we're fact checking a storm on trump, but we need to call him out seriously, what are not misstatements, but flatout lies, who somebody says is absolutely right to call a demogogue in line with joseph mccarthy. he's not new, but equally as dangerous, and i think we have to do a better job of calling him out and in particular those media outlets that get a chance to sit down and talk to him can't be so worried about their ratings as holding him accountable for what he says, and as we have seen, that's very problematic for anyone sitting down with him. >> this is your party, and you obviously care about its
future, and you cared about the post-mortem after 2012 and figuring out where to go next, and does this really constitute -- >> i think that the seven of them be for donald trump, ten republicans, but the seven are for five or six different candidates. trump may not immediately get smaller, but as the consolidation happens, he gets smaller relative to the strength of other candidates. and i think that you're already seeing the uncertainty that carson is displaying in contrast to trump's uncertainty. he's beginning to lose votes to cruz and rubio, and i think that cruz and rubio are the candidates to focus on. as their canned sees grow, that's when the republicans have the chance to climb out
the donald trump jailhouse and have a choice between a traditional conservative and a new conservative like rubio and have a chance. >> does it happen by iowa? >> no. >> thanks to our guests. i'll be back in a moment with a final thought on this strange campaign season and what trump, carson and fiorina are telling you right now. stay with us, it's "inside story."
>> there was an editorial in yesterday's washington post that was unusual in its starting of one particular campaign and candidate, donald trump. running down his list of crowd pleasing errors of anti-american muslims in new jersey, the post said these are not random errors. all of them appealed to the basic inbe stinks in supporters. they reinforce fears and prejudices. all of them, mr. trump knows by now, even if he didn't know when he it stated them, are false, but i does not care. i'm not sure that this level of high minded disgust is going to work. let's remember that whether it's out of wisdom or caution, candidates that run outside of a fairly safe political comfort zone rarely win high office in the united states.
whether henry wallace on the left. or strom thermon, or barry goldwater on the right ever became president, and few voters stray far from the mean. maybe you worry about donald trump and maybe you're a donald trump supporter. i wonder if this level of concern is really called for before a single voter or caucus goer has ventured out of their front door. meanwhile, it's my hope for you that over this long holiday weekend, you're with who you want to be with, and as we bring you another year of struggle from around the world, you find that you have plenty to be grateful for. happy thanksgiving. i'm ray suarez, and that's the "inside story."
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