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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  February 10, 2016 6:30pm-7:01pm EST

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>> this is what innovation looks like. >> i feel like we're making an impact. >> let's do it. >> techknow, where technology meets humanity. only on al jazeera america. >> both party's primary contests offered surprises and push back on conventional wisdom. among republicans, donald trump won, doubled the result of the second-place finisher, john kasich, dropped the supposedly surging marco rubio into 3rd and pushed carly fiorina out of the race. bernie sanders won, as was expected, but by a thumping big margin, and among almost every group of voters, what's next?
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it's the "inside story". welcome to "inside story". i'm ray suarez. new hampshire has a way of shaking up a young race. john kerry beating howard dean in 2004, ben carson's win in 1992, saving his campaign after he got a thumping in iowa. and john mccain in 2000, over george w. bush. last night did things, confirmed donald trump's place, and chased carly fiorina out and may be sending chris christie back to new jersey. it cast doubt on marco rubio's theory of how to run for the republican nomination. there was heavy turnout on the republican side, healthy but
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not record-breaking turnout on the democratic side. we'll start this edition of "inside story" in where else, in new hampshire with aljazeera's libby casey. >> because of a uge voter turnout, and i say uge, we won. >> reporter: in concord, new hampshire, democrat, bernie sanders, thanked his supporters. >> what began last week in iowa, with voters here in new hampshire confirmed tonight is nothing short of the beginning of a political revolution. >> reporter: the vermont senator stuck to one of his familiar themes, railing against wid wall street and the. >> at a time of wealth and inequality, the wealthiest people and the largest corporations in this country will start paying their fair share of taxes.
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we'll need to come together in a few months and unite this party and this nation, because the right wing republicans we oppose must not be allowed to gain the presidency. >> i heard parts of bernie's speech, he wants to give away our country, folks, and we're not going to let it happen. >> reporter: a big night as well for republican, donald trump, who claimed victory in the granite state, after finishing second in iowa. in his speech, trump talked about jobs, obamacare, preserving the second amendment and even referring to the paris attacks. >> we're going to make america so great again. i love you all. thank you, new hampshire, thank you, new hampshire, thank you. we are going to now to south carolina, we're going to win in south carolina. i love you all, thank you very much. >> thank you so much. >> reporter: for hilliary clinton, it was a night to
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shake off her loss. >> i know i have some work to do, particularly with young people, but i will repeat again, even if they're not supporting me now, i support them. >> reporter: the former secretary of state put up a positive front, saying she's looking ahead to the future. >> you are the reason we're here, and the reason we're going to win the nomination, and we'll win the election together. >> reporter: the small group of republicans fought it out for second place. >> at a time when changes is in the air, maybe we're just turning the page on a dark part of american politics, because the light over came the darkness. >> reporter: kasich beat out.
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libby casey, aljazeera, manchester, new hampshire. >> what's next? the road to south carolina, this time on the program, joining me now, john fund, the columnist for national review, and columnist, victoria burke is back, along with research and a pollster. let me start with you, john, you devoted a whole issue to explaining in detail why donald trump is not an acceptable republican nominee. are you going to have to reprint it and rewrite some of the essays down the road? is he more plausible than he was a week ago? >> well, certainly, he has done better than many people expected. but if you do the math of the delegates and the delegates nominee, the calculation is that he would have to get in every primary and caucus over
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45% of the vote to get all of the delegates, that includes a winner take all caucus that he might win. there's no chance now, because while donald trump can be in the low 30s in poll, you have people in the mid 30s that won't vote for him under any circumstances. donald trump is the frontrunner, but a frontrunner with perhaps a low ceiling. >> i understand your point and your math, so if he remains in the race, a fair amount and most if not all of the campaigns stay in the race, what does he do to split the party and change the math of becoming the nominee? >> well, the party could certainly have a race that goes all the way to the convention. by that point, i suspect you'll see more candidates drop out. we lost two today, chris christie and carly fiorina. and then you'll see interesting
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alliances working themselves out and you see of course that assumes that donald trump doesn't trip up and he does as well now as he has done in this primary in new hampshire. we're not going to know that until after south carolina and the southern primaries. because while donald trump's message is resident to the southern states, most of those states will only allow republicans to vote and won't allow independents as new hampshire. donald trump wouldn't have done as well last night if independents had been allowed to vote. >> what have you seen in the exit polls inside of donald trump land right now? >> a couple of times. if i were a republican i would be worried if you look at the trend line. all of that, here's where it's problematic. donald trump actually beat out ted cruz among evangelicals last night, which is a big deal in the republican party, especially when you're heading south. donald trump won those voters last night who consider themselves very conservative, and he has now come in first or
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second, and really sort of doubled up in new hampshire. and he's such a clear frontrunner for them, and yes, some of the math, when you shake out some of the other folks, that helps the establishment. but that's yet to be seen. i see someone who is growing and gaining momentum. if i were a party republican in the south, i would be very concerned if i look at the numbers where he is among blue collar and evangelicals. he's gaining support, and falwell's endorsement, it becomes very problematic. >> given everything that john carnell just said about the strong headwinds that face donald trump, did new hampshire not settle things in a way that could have provided the anti-trump? provided the plausible champion to be the anti-trump? because rubio finished in fifth, and john kasich, who has
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very little organization in the south and the west finished second. got a new breath of air, an oxygen injection, and maybe a hormone injection for jeb bush's campaign, a little testosterone there, and what's going on down the finishing? >> i think that cornell is it right. we have a situation where the first place -- he came in a close second in iowa, and then first in new hampshire. donald trump, it's not as if ted cruz is right behind him in new hampshire. i thought that he really solidified himself as a clear frontrunner in two states where nobody thought that he would do particularly well, and now you're going down south where the issues line up with trump and the voters line up with trump a lot better. i think there's a huge problem for the republican party because his unfavorable numbers are huge when you pair him in a national contest, he doesn't fare well, but when it comes to
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comparing him to other republicans, he does really well. you imagine governor kasich coming in close or second in carolina? i don't imagine that. so i think that trump is probably not only the clear frontrunner now, but i don't know what stops him. rubio, is rubio expected to come in second? no, there's no place on the map where you see his contenders showing up and getting in and making it competitive for him. i think that they have a huge, huge problem. >> i want to go back to john. because south carolina and nevada are next for the republicans, february 20th, south carolina, and february 23rd, nevada. right after it, and if he does well in both places and right now, he's leading in the polls in both places, doesn't that push back on your point about his implausibility as a nominee? >> no, and i did not extrapolate too much from iowa where he lost and underperformed his polls. and i won't ex strap late too
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much from new hampshire. every primary is different and a different kurt. if he does do well in south carolina and nevada, the math i mentioned to you still holds. he has to get a majority of delegates, and frankly, supporters other than donald trump will support anyone other than donald trump. i'm not saying that he's not a frontrunner, but he's a frontrunner where there's enormous candidate support from the other side that goes against him. that's all. he has to get 51%, and not 34%. >> what's next in the road to south carolina? stay with us. it's "inside story".
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>> you're watching "inside story". i'm ray suarez. what's next? the road out of new hampshire and onto south carolina. bernie sanders won among women. he won among young voters, he won among all voters except people who makeover $200,000 women over 65. cornell belcher and burke and fund are with me. and is it time to regroup for hilliary clinton. >> it's time to regroup and shakeup. let's be clear. what happened in happen ham and what was iowa, you look at
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what's problematic. he won among segments in new hampshire, in the campaign in 2008. he won in segments of new hampshire where she killed obama. the counties of rochester, and same with the lectorate. he's competing and beating her there. you have to have a shakeup and a more forward futuristic message. right now, they see her as a prag attic leader, and folks in 2008, thing to shakeup the establishment a little bit right now.
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>> it's an tactical answer. in an anti-establishment year, you can't rule out people like gloria steinem. her worst number, 80% voting for bernie sanders, and i don't know why that would change in south carolina and on super tuesday, and the other mistake that the clintons keep making, hiring the same people that keep losing the campaigns for them. when i hear rumors of mark penn, these are the people who lost for you before. why do you keep hiring them and keep listening to them? so yes, a shakeup is in order, and it's good to hear that she's in brooklyn today. because there needs to be a huge change in the campaign if they're going to win south carolina. >> is there a sharpening of the knives and not dwell on the
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tumult in the republican race when you look over the other side of the fence and see what the democrats are up to? >> well, the democrats have a revolution going on, and the fact that the party has moved to the left and hilliary clinton hasn't budged, except where she is rett orcly. nevada, it's not like the republicans. they're going to vote first, and then south carolina. nevada is a caucus state. and bernie sanders with his activists do very well in a caucus state, and he may do fairly well with the spanish population in nevada. so you can't say that south carolina is the firewall because hilliary clinton could get there first. >> and the strength of the unions in the democratic party cannot be ignored for a second. and bernie sanders is likely to make inroads there as well.
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>> the big news, less than half of the voters view hilliary clinton as honest and trustworthy, and that's an amazingly big barrier for a candidate who wants the party's nomination, it has been a long time since richard nixon. >> firewalls. i hate the term. i hate the assumption that you can pick places on the map and say, i'm losing but i'm not going to lose there. the view that minority-rich states are favorable to hilliary clinton. >> she's polling well with african-americans in south carolina and that's fine, but bernie sanders is hiring a lot of young african-americans and paying at least minimum wage to
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campaign in the state. and when i hear that she's overstaffed in the state, that may even it out. but i do think that there's a point that she has to win. she has to win in south carolina. obviously, on super tuesday next week, but she, to me has to win in south carolina. >> this is what the problem is. right now, if i can make inroads, she's running so well among african-americans, making up deficits among black voters. he doesn't have to beat barack obama. if he getting one-third of south carolina, it becomes very competitive there. and she can't pull away from him in south carolina with a core democratic base minority voters. on super tuesday -- >> what about john's point that nevada comes first for the democrats and it could be nasty. >> it could, you have a large diverse hispanic vote as well as the union vote there. someone once told me, if you
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want to understand democratic primaries, you have to understand unions and minorities and liberals. so the union vote becomes big there for nevada and also the hispanic vote. if he can make inroads there, it's a real problem. >> what's next? the road to south carolina.
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comcast business. built for business. >> welcome back to "inside story". i'm ray suarez. think about a presidential campaign. it starts publicly early in the year before the primaries. the conventions, and the general election. but it starts long before that, behind closed doors, in planning, calls to early donors, the establishment of campaign committees and political action committees, and all the while, money is being spent. it varies from campaign to campaign. some run lean, shepherding resources until actual voting begins, and some spend formably. think rudy guiliani, who burned
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through $50 million had virtually nothing to show for it, when he suspended his campaign. my guests are still with me. and john, what role will money play with a still crowded field going forward? >> well, the herd, we have had two republicans drop out and i think that john kasich is going to raise some money now, but can he raise enough for a national organization? jeb bush has enough money, and marco rubio's donors will be hanging back to see what happens in south carolina. so that will probably narrow the republican field over time. on the democratic side, hilliary clinton has all the money in the world but it doesn't seem to be work, because as lauren pointed out, there's no message that resonates with people. so we have seen that big money is not a panacea. it gets you a lot of media attention but the voters may be unimpressed. >> is this an answer to the woah is me, sky is falling
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stuff before the campaign season started, that this election was going to be bought and it was going to be a big money election? we're looking at the dollar spent per vote figures, and they're incredible. >> right. to have two figures in the race like bernie sanders and donald trump. one is a self spender, who can go on and on, and the other is raising small dollar dean aces that should terrify hilliary clinton. that plug that he did last night, he said by the way, go to bernie for donations, i bet you 72 hours after that, he's going to end up with a few million dollars. >> $15 million. >> it's amazing and unprecedented. >> i was part of the obama campaign in 201 2008 where we ha lot of small donors, and they have more than that. and most thought that hilliary clinton was going to take into
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selection, and that money is gone because he's raising a lot of money, and she burned through a lot of money early on. right now, if you look at the money raised, the clear edge does not go to hilliary clinton, and that's a real problem as you look to super tuesday. >> jeb bush still has a great deal of money. can that encourage him to stay in the race longer? as we saw in some campaigns in 2012 than you might otherwise keep campaigning in. >> yes, but so far the super pact has been most known for attacking marco rubio, but marco rubio wasn't hurt until he hurt himself in those three minutes mt. saturday debait. so i'm beginning to question. voters see a lot of commercials and i think that they tune most of them out and that's why once again, big money in politics doesn't necessarily buy you love, because as we have seen,
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grassroots organizing and general enthusiasm, whether it's for donald trump or bernie sanders, so far seems to be trumping big money. >> bernie sanders rejected money with a system, and coordination and organization and all of that stuff. and that sounds very virtuous and forward-looking and all of that, and is there a point where he may end up really needing that money? >> i laugh because obama rejected pack money at first, and you go back and ask people, did obama take pack money? and all politicians take pack money. in the end, whoever the nominee is, given the money that's going to be spent by either side, you are disarming yourself in a very detrimental way when you say that you're not going to take outside money, and you don't want it being spent on this campaign, because it's going to be spent in this campaign.
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let one side take all of the pack money and dominate the conversation, it's problematic. >> rejects public funding in the general election cycle. is he letting the other side get a leg up? >> he is, but the problem is him, and it's the reason why no one -- obama, his campaign is based and his authenticity is involved with not getting involved with big money, so for him to change that at the back of the game would be very difficult for him to do, but bernie sanders, the way he's raising small donors, i'm not sure that's going to change a lot. if he gets the nomination and goes against trump, and i laugh as i say it, and it seems completely unbelievable, but that's what we're looking at. >> john, poo pooing the idea of
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big money controlling the election, and if bernie sanders sticks with his current plan, does that give the advantage to the republican nominee? >> i agree with howard dean, the chairman of the former democratic national committee. he said bernie sanders is against packs, but he has packs of his own, it's called unions. unions are the democrat's packs. they aren't called packs, but they are. bernie sanders will have lots of union packs on his side. >> i have to write down the date and time, because i don't think that i ever heard john fund say i'm going to agree with john dean, the farmer chairman of the dnc. >> i admired his race. >> my guests, great to have you all, and i'm ray suarez, join us again tomorrow. good night.
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>> this is aljazeera america, live from new york city. i'm david schuster. just ahead, the u.s. justice department has now filed a federal lawsuit against the city of ferguson, missouri, and it comes after failed negotiations with the police department. congress testimony today in the flint, michigan water crisis, a no-show on capitol hill. and his refusing


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