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tv   Inside Story 2017 Ep 255  Al Jazeera  September 14, 2017 2:32pm-3:01pm AST

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so continue to try to escape what's going on across the border inside me and mara. the u.s. secretary of state rex tillerson is in london for talks with the u.k. prime minister to reason may he will also meets the british foreign secretary boris johnson they are expected to discuss tensions on the korean peninsula mr tillerson would also attend a meeting on libya along with representatives from france italy egypt and the u.a.e. . north korea has threatened to using nuclear weapon against japan after the u.n. impose more sanctions against pyongyang japan condemned the threat saying the announcement was extremely provocative the u.s. president donald trump has denied reports of a deal being struck to protect undocumented young people known as dreamers in the states earlier democrats announced an agreement had been reached which would have protected nearly eight hundred thousand migrants they had benefited from the former president barack obama's program but earlier this month trump announced he would end it and he gave congress six months to come up with something new those are your
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top stories adrian's within the coming hours between now and the top of the hour it's inside story season. u.n. has imposed another round of sanctions against north korea pyongyang conducted its largest new kids test and in this month or two sanctions likings would in north korea elsewhere in the world and is it the people who suffer the most this is inside story.
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and i welcome to the program i'm jane dutton it's a cycle of provocation condemnation followed by sanctions repeated time and time again north korea has been under some form of un or us sanctions for the better part of the past twenty five years now the security council has impose more sanctions targeting pyongyang's oil imports and textile exports to industries it relies on heavily the sanctions are a response to north korea's six and largest nuclear test earlier this month but existing sanctions don't seem to have much sway in preventing the government from developing its nuclear and missile program so how will these new sanctions be any different it's bring in our panel in london we have a meal dollar research fellow specializing in nuclear proliferation and sanctions policy at the royal united services institute in berlin sara brock a man
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a project manager at the global public policy institute specializing in mass atrocity prevention and joining us on skype from capetown richard pop lacquers a senior contributor to the daily maverick a very warm welcome to all of you do you think this latest round of sanctions will finally work will it do what these sanctions have been trying to do will it bring this regime to heel. no i don't i don't think that this round of sanctions will make a significant difference in north korea scaling back its nuclear and missile program we are now too late in the game for denuclearization to still be on the agenda for the north koreans but sanctions are still incredibly useful in sending a clear message to north korea that its provocative actions will not go unresolved
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i understand it and it also sends another signal sue would be violators other countries who see north korea getting off with it with provocative behavior it sends a very clear message to them that the international community will bring penalty against you if you violate international law so abroad where do you think that these sanctions have any chance of succeeding where other sanctions have so far failed whether sanctions move work and north korea will very much depend whether they're in bed and this is always the case with sanctions in a larger political strategy so i am not hopeful that this is going to be the case and in this case because essentially what would be needed is a political strategy that has everybody on board including the united states and north korea obviously but also china and russia and even just in the united states if you look at the state department that has been severely understaffed so far it is very unlikely that we'll have any kind of political strategy any chance of
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essentially rallying people and countries around a common goal on this north korea issue so i do not believe that there's going to be very successful what about do you richard pop like i mean those sanctions really are stacking up on their i mean is this tightening of the noose helping him anyway . well i hate to be the voice of a sort of closed consensus here but having lived through such as boy here in south africa. there's a very curious aspect as to section's when you're sort of in the middle of the of the hurricane as it were and that is that some people get very very rich very quickly others get very very poor very quickly and it's certainly with the apartheid regime was very unclear whether sanctions actually fell the regime itself. i would argue that sanctions which kicked off the ninety six and the ninety ninety one and the end of apartheid in nineteen at the end of ninety nine beginning of ninety ninety were coincidental i don't think sanctions had as
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much as much impact on the south african economy as as many academics even. and i think that narrative as well as been has been turned around a lot since recent data has come to light. yeah ok so sara sorry richard to raise some important points there i mean you reckon that there needs to be the the political will the political framework but also how do you prevent people from circum navigating these sanctions they are many ways on things i mean essentially and un sanctions theoretically everyone is free to be obliged to implement them and in essence sanctions are affective if they target those that have political power those that actually have the palleted same something and death there is no but there is no legal. recourse essentially if that country if our second mensing sanctions this would simply be then the responsibility of national
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systems to pursue. all right let's take a look now at some of the most prominent sanctions of the past century the u.s. has meant taint embargo on cuba for more than fifty years the goal was to end the castro government but its still in power south africa on the other hand is often seen as an example of a successful sanctions campaign richard had some covers to make about that some say an economic blockade imposed a nine to five force the minority wide government to step down and in the one nine hundred ninety s. the un blocked food and medicine imports to iraq to pressure saddam hussein to give up his suspected stockpile of chemical weapons which didn't work and the blockade may have led to the deaths of thousands of children heavy sanctions on iran arguably pushed on to the negotiating table in two thousand and fifteen which were lifted after the nuclear deal went into effect but president donald trump has imposed new sanctions trump also new restrictions on russia on the same day that's
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in response to its suspected interference in last year's u.s. election and it's a gratian in eastern ukraine if you look at all of those together in a meal you've got to ask the question do you sanctions in general really work. well i think the cases you refer to just now are really quite different and they and they warrant different examinations the iraq case as you point out was in the comprehensive embargo on the country which ended up causing massive humanitarian consequences with iran the sanctions that were constructed much more sick toral targeting iran's vital exports in terms of oil targeting the iranian financial industries access to the global financial system and basically isolating the regime what was really vital with iran case is the
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combination of negotiations so as sanctions were hardened against iran. you also see an uptick in negotiations you saw an uptick in the willingness by the european union and united states to engage in a structured and clear negotiation on the side lines of those sanctions i do think we've learned a lot from sanctions over the years and the mistakes that we made in the iran case in one nine hundred ninety s. those mistakes that we've learned from and won't be repeated again so i think iran is a really good example of where sanctions are today how we can use actions effectively but they only work when we carried them pair them up with with some other form of diplomatic tool in this case negotiations and in south africa richard what do you think the combination was that worked alongside sanctions i mean the the national party was pretty much bankrupt towards the end was it the fall of the iron curtain
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was it the end to partake movement what was it. well that you're exactly right there were all these other factors that were there in play if you look at the massive sort of moments of capital outflow in south africa they came off that huge opera's shop all in the sweat uprisings and then of course all of the unrest in the one nine hundred eighty s. so that had something to do with it as well to put it to put the end of apartheid entirely at sanctions feet would be would be a mistake and would be so under so the uprising blocks of their time that have a lot to do with mismanaged financial and governmental mismanagement also had a lot to do. that there seems to be a misconception that the apartheid regime was a well run regime it was not there was a lot of fiscal spending and so that had a lot to do with it as well all of these factors going to play and you know there has been a sort of or is it revisionist movement here in south africa looking at how effective
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sanctions actually what about capital flight sara i mean how does that work when sanctions have been imposed on a country and that money is taken out of the country. effectively the people the common man woman will they not then bear the brunt of the sanctions because the money that should be going to them towards the education possibly is going to the regime in the government's hands instead yes i think you mentioned a very important aspect of the sanctions debate that's been going on for decades actually at this point and iraq as you mentioned and momentous and was one example of pretty much disastrous effects of large economic sanctions there are thousands of children and people killed but it's also important to say that the international community did in fact i think learn from these failures as well and you've seen much more of the shift in the last two decades that particular from these large
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economic sanctions that are affecting essentially you can affect everybody and most of the time even affect normal people more than political leaders in power we've seen a shift from that to more targeted so-called smart sanctions that are actually supposed to affect individuals so this is a lot of times targeting individual political leaders financial assets if they have any financial assets abroad or this is targeting they're essentially posing travel bans on them so it's it's always been important to keep in mind these individual targeted sanctions because that's a big part of the sanctions regimes that are have now at this point been passed by the united nations there are at this point five thirteen sanctions regimes passed by the u.n. security council and more than six hundred individuals on that list in meal talking about russia and the impact of sanctions that and targeted strikes and you know there's some estimates of hundreds of thousands of children died because of that
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what should happen then to those behind those sanctions behind that action surely they can get away with it i mean what makes them any better. i mean so so looking at the north korean case right now the effect of sanctions on the north korean regime is very difficult to measure because the north korean regime has become very capable of operating abroad and invading sanctions they set up huge corporate networks operating in china but also in other countries that allows them to actually. navigate through a very complex actions framework so to start with it's very difficult to completely isolate a country but you also have to think about well what does complete isolation mean will complete isolation necessarily result in the outcome that we wish to achieve and there it's really important as i said before to think of what other things can
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we make sanctions a pair with sanctions can you what you said given that isolation would have any minute song psychological effect on leadership and the nation itself but not in north korea it seems. well north korea is a completely different country it's it's we don't know very much about the u. turn the workings of north korea so sanctions theory usually says we bring economic pressure on a regime domestic opposition grows within the country in response that economic pressure and forces the leadership into changing behavior that is not in compliance with international law with north korea it's not clear that the calculation works exactly that way all right so china is supposed to abide by these sanctions we know that it's not very successful at imposing them strictly what should happen to countries like china in this case do you favor what trump says that these countries
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should be. penalized punished that trade should be stopped because it certainly works in other countries doesn't it you have to find measures of punishment that work i don't think that it would be a very smart strategy could the u.s. to stop all trade that china. smarter strategy would be to find a common solution to negotiate with china to find some common ground that they would actually this is what i think the state department and the term administration should pursue if i can just say one more thing on the kind of the individuals sanctioned and on the context essentially it's any time no matter if it's economic are targeted sanctions it's extremely important to know who is it that you are trying to target and what is the political context just to give you an example of what doesn't work in south sudan we have had u.n. sanctions imposed. and you know the u.s. has long term sanctions imposed on south sudanese warlords a century that are trying to they're fighting amongst each other and their
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sanctions have no effect essentially because most of them don't actually even have assets outside of the country and essentially sanctions are almost a badge of honor if you are on the u.s. sanctions list you are freely made it so in that case it's even if it has even the adverse effect so this is just to illustrate you always have to really get well analyzed the political context that you are moving and that you want to imply a ploy these sanctions and there richard that's a good point is a let me go to know what the the case for the sanctions is who you're trying to target isn't the leadership the people and in many cases i mean what happens if kim jong un is forced to leave look what happened to redeem him badly or exactly is this new sort of more targeted stance or shiny sanctions do you make a little more sense but but again in zimbabwe. just simply hasn't worked although
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that is on it yet maybe ship has been targeted and although there's been a blanket blanket sort of shutdowns you have entire sectors of the economy there basically the the leadership manages to smuggle wealth out of the country. once more and get it done. and that is sort of birthing its own humanitarian crisis so bob is another case where sanctions however however well meaning and however you know certainly in the sort of sanctions to. certainly not working but at least talk a little bit more about the sanctions busters whether it be the leaders those imposing the sanctions the black market traders i mean how does it all work under a sanctions mantle there's a serious particles that are. and they remember that sort of look back at the apartheid regime and how and how sort of other you know other other countries and
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europe managed to circumvent the whole sections. that sanctions regime the perfect example you know that they remember today and it's a test process where the french systematic went about getting around the embargo especially the arms in order to prop up french arms from the french what is now the french arms got. these were were you know received sort of sort of sanctions busting knees that were you know they came rubber stamped right at the very top that was that was you know that was a complete. you know a completely french program. and so it's still happening today if you look at yemen the british government is involved in arming the saudi led offensive the we know that the u.s.
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is also sending weapons yet they are also signatories yet they also sit on the u.n. security council i mean how do you get that sort of balance right when you preaching one thing one country and then behaving in a different manner well pakistan fortunately is a big part of all of international relations mean just to make this point again if if there is a u.n. security council resolution the resolution if there is a on sanctions regime that has to be translated into law for example within the european union this becomes they implement u.s. sanctions and then every country and every company will have to comply with these sanctions and if they don't they actually should be liable in you a national law so in that sense there is a legal recourse as well. emil i'm just wondering this does go back to south africa but i'm just wondering how it applies generally this is from f.w. de klerk the former president he wrote that he believed that sanctions actually
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delayed change that isolation it change in the bud and i'm praising this he said south africa should be allowed to grow economically and change would have come sooner do you think that could benefit countries like iran for example all do countries because of song sanctions become more self sustainable. while i think it works in both ways because when you have sections installed sanctions are most effective when they're lifted again so countries that are feeling under sanctions also know that if they change behavior according to what the unit un security council says that behavior change can lead to a lifting of sanctions so i think it works both ways i just wanted to pick up on a point that was made a bit earlier and it's worth remembering that many sanctions seems today or actually pursued unilaterally so the same regimes against iran hit very hard when
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it was just the u.s. and european union lateral sanctions that were brought against iran the european union has had a weird relationship with sanctions for many years they've been opposed to to two u.s. sanctions especially when the for impacting on european business interest and hope that things like blocking statutes in place which have forbid german companies for example from complying with u.s. sanctions that that said don't do business with cuba the european has changed a little bit and they're now more import with with with with what we call secondary sanctions in the in the u.s. terminology. but what's really powerful bus stations is the fact that you can lift them again and behavior change can be to that lifting and sarah the level of sanctions if i can put it that way it sanctions all what's the alternative is it a military option is it the last line of defense attack.
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well in all kind of conflict prevention and consequently gessen efforts that we have sanctions is just a simply one tool of many that we have next to diplomatic measures we have tended to development and we have all kinds of pressures and yes we also have a range of military tools obviously available and for all of these measures again it is you always have the rule essentially you they have to be employed in the context of a political strategy you have to have some kind of political goal and you have to pursue that goal with in sabet sickly all these tools that you have where you don't have that you will not have any success richard when you think sanctions as a foreign policy to become futile you know. details of this as it were look i think again context is so critical in
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the targeting of sanctions design essential so critical if there are holes and let's call the sanctions wall as it were so that once switzerland didn't join the european community and bugger all so that was enough of a gap for the or for the apartheid regime to move money through swiss bank accounts so without there being a sort of concerted one could almost think it was sort of like a you know entirely global effort when it comes to sanctions those holes in the wall these things heat up ok emil if sanctions are not working we're not seeing it work in north korea at the moment is a time now for a rethink of sanctions can those fifteen members on the council get together and come up with something a lot more effective that doesn't involve a military option. i'm not sure poke yourselves remember that sections serve a multitude of uses and in the north korean case sanctions if implemented correctly
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by all countries can constrain the regimes activities of fraud can disrupt their illicit networks trading networks that operate in southeast asia in china in africa even in europe. but sanctions so far have been linked to denuclearization they've been linked to the objective that if we bring sanctions against north korea north korea will turn back from the nuclear brink i don't think we're at that stage anymore we cannot keep bringing more and more sanctions against north korea without actually stepping back and thinking what is our objective with doing this how do sanctions fit into a wider strategy and how can we make citations a tool of that for why the strategy rather than an end in themselves otherwise we risk sanctions becoming a default option and a north korean regime knowing that of course that doesn't mean that sanctions are not hitting the north korean regime hard they are absolutely feeling some impact of
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the citations and everything moving against them makes it more and more difficult for the north korean regime to operate syria do you think it's time to finesse sanctions as a foreign policy tool or just come up with something far smarter i think as with better essentially with any foreign policy instrument that you have you don't have that many options so essentially the fact that sanctions can be ineffective and often are ineffective and they're badly implemented doesn't mean that we should just throw this tool that we have out of the window and start with others essentially it means we have to invest more in getting smarter and them and put them throwing them in the correct way and in essentially developing more sophisticated smart and more developed tools well thank you all three of you for talking us through sanctions what they mean the impact that they've had or not a meal dollar sarah broke my and richard public. and thank you as always for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera
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dot com for further discussion go to facebook page at facebook dot com ford slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a.j. inside story mine is at jane. by from university. a new level of luxury has arrived. at experience that will transform the way.
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