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tv   Inside Story 2017 Ep 257  Al Jazeera  September 16, 2017 10:32am-11:00am AST

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these have arrested dozens of people and clued in prominent clerics their arrests were made ahead of a call by exiled opposition leaders to hold them in stray sions after friday prayers the u.s. face group condemned the arrests calling them a crackdown on dissent and a criticism of the royal family carries a prison sentence in saudi arabia the united states wants the kurdish regional government in northern iraq to call off an independence referendum to be held later this month the kurdish parliament approved the proposal on friday despite opposition from iraq iran and turkey the u.s. is calling on the kurds to enter into dialogue with the iraqi government warning the referendum could spark violence in the region four people have been killed ten and hurt after a typhoon hit central vietnam typhoon us kori pounded six coastal districts with one hundred thirty five kilometer per hour when's the storm to tore roofs off sixty thousand homes damaged electricity voles poles and caused blackouts those are the
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headlines and it's continues after inside story keep it here. on counting the cost how apple's i phone economics make it the most profitable company in the world. how the j. trade is influencing the prices in myanmar. plus one hundred days of the gulf crisis we'll look at how cost of the economy is very. counting the cost at this time on i just did a. north korea fires another missile across japan the second in less than a month world leaders have condemned the north south korea says it's now impossible to talk to pyongyang so where is this crisis heading and how close are we to war this is inside story.
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hello and welcome to the program dennis now north korea's actions of again put the entire region in fact the whole world on edge pyongyang has launched another ballistic missile across japan for the second time in as many weeks now earlier this month north korea conducted its biggest nuclear test and there's another meeting of the u.n. security council so we've got a lot to get to with our guests in a moment first this report from craig lease and then. the missile launch followed a familiar pattern it came early morning two minutes before seven local time with japan in its path launched from the capital pyongyang the missile through three thousand seven hundred kilometers over the northern japanese island of hokkaido reaching a height of seven hundred seventy kilometers before crashing to the pacific ocean. just minutes after sirens sounded in her as a public alert was issued residents had mixed feelings you begin to just doesn't
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feel real i really don't know what it'll do it gives me the shivers i feel like telling them to stop it now the response from neighbors was swift south korea's national security council held an emergency meeting the country's new president ordered to counter fire with a missile test of its own the drill was pre-planned in preparation for another north korean test. not going again fired a ballistic missile obviously disregarding international community's criticisms and warnings and the un security council resolutions such continuous provoking by not go to your c.d.'s that's the peace and stability of korean peninsula and international community that our government sternly denounced us and express anger over the missile launch moon also instructed the nation to analyze and ramp up preparations for new forms of threats from electromagnetic pulse and chemical attacks arriving in tokyo from an economic summit in india japan's prime minister
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immediately called for an emergency meeting of the u.n. security council. north korea has trampled on the international society's strong desire for a peaceful solution it's reckless act is absolutely unacceptable we will request the security council to hold an emergency meeting. he's urging the international community to act as one against north korea and wants the u.n. security council to implement the latest sanctions against the country the u.s. secretary of state is calling on all nations to take new measures against north korea specifically he said china and russia must indicate their intolerance for these reckless launches by taking direct actions of their own this is the second ballistic missile to cross japan in less than a month it comes within twenty four hours of north korea threatening to sink japan with nuclear weapons a threat japan takes seriously now that it believes north korea has the ability to miniaturize its nuclear weapons and place them on top of ballistic missiles like
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the one which crossed the country today craig leeson al-jazeera tokyo. well let's take a closer look at north korea's missile development over the past few months it tested a hydrogen bomb two weeks ago it's six nuclear test and most powerful to date the u.n. security council impose tougher sanctions in response a few weeks earlier north korea fired an intermediate range ballistic missile over northern japan that was on august the twenty ninth in total pyongyang has fired twenty one missiles in fourteen tests since february and that includes its test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in july. all right let's bring in our guests now in so we have bruce harrison a journalist who's based in the south korean capital joining us from exeter in england aden force the carter senior research fellow in sociology at multan korea
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at leeds university in singapore we have graham own web and research fellow at the rajaratnam school of international studies welcome to you all. i'm guessing you're all feeling exactly the same as me a profound sense of deja vu we have north korea launching a missile testing some sort of new clear we think nuclear device then we have swift international condemnation then we have the u.n. security council meets in emergency session and they discussed tightening up sanctions hayden we've been here before goodness we seem to be here almost every day or at least every week it would be wrong though to shrug i wonder if kim jong un doesn't really get the concept of diminishing returns i mean there is a risk that people will shrug but at the same time this is very dangerous activity
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reckless irresponsible and the rhetoric i mean that's one thing that is a bit different i mean you said the threat to sink japan and so on the after the u.n. latest u.n. security council resolution and will doubtless get another one now on the latest sanctions they have some absolute vituperation of everybody and they were using words like yankees the word jap sub please drop in is us please forgive me that i'm quoting you know. and so it's some one cannot but be worried even though it is deja vu this is not a good thing and it's going on and on on and. and coming to bruce in seoul of course it's commonly assumed that you are first in line away you are is first in line of any aggression coming from pyongyang all south koreans as alarmed as they should be given the level of aggression the new regime of president moon has received since he took office i've spent countless
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hours doing man on the street interviews in response to missile tests and nuclear tests and i'd say overall. and this is going on for for years i'd say overall the general response is that south koreans view this is just a perpetual annoyance but in recent weeks and months i have heard some differing responses to be honest i have heard some people say this feels a bit different and it is different to build a little bit on the agents response there at the beginning. things are changing north korea's nuclear and missile technologies are improving what we saw today was a missile that has the capability to fly all the way to guam though they didn't shoot it in that direction there may be some issues with exact targeting and we're not sure about a reentry capability we don't know if there was a payload on this missile we don't know everything but the technology is improving
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and where is it going to end i think south koreans do think about that sometimes this can't continue forever it simply can't and graham i'm just wondering whether the frequency with which talked about there being twenty one missile tests since february is the frequency of the testing and the launches by pyongyang is it unprecedented it is unprecedented certainly i mean i think one in comparison to the previous years. they've seen an unprecedented amount of testing i think on average we have witnessed about fifteen tests not just in just the missile tests in the last few years we're talking about twenty one days you know so clearly there's been a rounding up there's been an intensification of efforts and i think it's all pointing towards this reese in getting its program right and achieving a level of reliability that will in your book young young to wield this nuclear
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threat credibly or i think coming back to you aden why does pyongyang want to have a credible new clear threat. well it used to be easier to answer that and i think it is now meaningless i one could very easily say and i think this is true that it started out as being defensive i mean they were bombed to bits by the americans on behalf of the un in the korean war there in much more modern times they were put on an axis of evil by george w. bush the first country on that list iraq which it turned out didn't have weapons of mass destruction though people told us they did not invaded libya also gave up its search for ukraine gave up nuclear weapons the lesson the north koreans have drawn is you need this stuff but i don't think i mean over it doesn't suffice to say that because they've reached that point of being impregnable where i don't they can't be struck i mean whatever trump my occasion is saying a late night tweet there is no way to strike them but it's going on and going over
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the top with more and more missile tests i mean i'm not making any diplomatic proposal we don't mean you know what they want that i think is that is the really worrying bit to me and bruce listening to some of the statements in the security council particularly coming from the russians in recent weeks it seems very much as at least the russians believe that kim jong un is pursuing this line because he is afraid of american particularly american intervention in pyongyang and effectively regime change i mean do you think that that is a credible justification for the kind of nuclear program that pyongyang is currently involved in. well there's multiple ways to look at it yes the fence as a said and the north americans bombed the base out of them during the korean war but it's harder to define what they want this point and there may be more often
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sieve thought in mind and there's a theory that they want nuclear weapons to unify the korean peninsula that's not simply defensive in nature but what they want any law to is is it something that you believe this does pyongyang want to reunification of the korean peninsula well if you study the propaganda it would suggest that and history does suggest that as well is that possible at this point are we going closer towards the eventual separation and permanent status of two separate states i'm not sure do they want that i think they do do they believe they can achieve that is another question. i think it would be more likely to see a north korea with nuclear weapons. being counseled by china and other you know quads i allies in the region on arms control arm controls
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arms control measures in the future but would they actually trying to use that weapon to unify the peninsula that's hard to say and graham it seems very much as though this is of x.'s existential important says it for the regime of kim jong un he believes that without. nuclear weapons his regime and his very existence is is under threat absolutely i mean he's taken a leaf from what's happened to one of gadhafi in libya libya give up its nuclear weapons programs what happens that and saddam hussein when he gave up his nuclear weapons program so so you know if you look at things from kim jong un's for a point of view he's not taking any chances. he's he's taken confidence in the utility of nuclear weapons in sending off this perceived foreign aggression and no nuclear or blackmail of any sort. to achieve the end of changing the regime and
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removing kim jong un from power so i'm convinced that he was hold on to his card at all costs and quite right i agree with my but with my counterparts on the shore that he is going to be difficult to remove that capability from him and he's constantly getting this is nuclear posture and increasingly with a range of technical measures and operational measures that will be difficult to weed out and a neutralize john young's nuclear assets on the ground is going to become difficult to remove that entirely and aid and i'm just wondering whether it's worth examining the chronology again because of course we're saying that this intensive activity got underway in february and of course there was a new american administration sworn in at the end of january do you think that there's a link between at the trumpet ministration taking over the white house and this
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increased belligerence on the part of pyongyang no not really except in the sense that i don't think the trum response has been particularly good not that i'm saying it's easy and i'm also not saying that obama did any better i think obama's so-called strategic patience which was basically eight years of doing nothing was actually criminally irresponsible because it allowed the technical basis for this really quite rapid surgery have seen recently to to be built up i think that trump doesn't really have a very clear policy but what i'd like to focus on actually is kim jong un the leader i think that there's another kind of regime change not the forcible kind the kind one leader succeeds another in a some countries were lucky enough that it's done democratically but in north korea despite its common. storage and its become a de facto monarchy and we're now on kim number three and this kim is different i mean goodness knows his father kim jong il his grandfather kim il sung were difficult enough north korea establish an early reputation as a provocateur as
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a rogue state that basically wouldn't do what anyone including gets crazy i are lies told it too but usually they were smarter father and grandfather because of a certain point they would throw the rest of us a saw they would tell us what they wanted it might be something outrageous a diplomatic track would start and sooner or later the crisis would diffuse but kim jong un about whom we know all too little or no it was a real shame that no one other than dennis rodman seems to have actually met him is just going on and on and on and we don't really get a clear notion is there a diplomatic track should we fear conquest of south korea i can't really fear that because illyria this is not an islamic state kim is not a fanatic we do know from mr rodman he lives well seven star he called it a north korea has built this very tightly controlled in its own way surprisingly stable society why would they want to upset all that they have all the propaganda of course that's what keeps people loyal to the fever pitch about war but what they really want to do it i doubt it sorry that's too much for me and all right and
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coming to you pretty savvy picking up on the point made by it has been a fairly durable and lasting regime it's even managed to get through to get through family and hasn't it two thousand and nine was the last point at which there were this stands of talks the six party talks as they were known which actually were quite productive were they insofar as the young beyond. cooling tower was destroyed for all to see what's gone wrong since then and why can't the various policies get back to that point where they could at least have conversation around the table. well as time wears on now let's start from the kim jong un administration since since he's taken over i think aden made some good points he's he's not his grandfather he's not his father and not throwing us a bone about what he wants and the current positions of the new united states south
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korea and japan it seems are that this time the talks are simply impossible because the weapons testing nuclear an i.c.b.m. xin other missiles has increased to a level that they're not willing to sit down until that stops it's too hostile right now to to chat they simply don't think the conditions are right. is there an opportunity for a six party dialogue framework it's some point down the road well i think the that it potential exists we can also look at the previous south korean administrations the presidency of young bach and moon and park and hey they were not very interested in dialogue compared to moon j.n. who's had to take a very hard line position because he's dealing with a north korea that is testing weapons more rapidly at the same time he still weakly as far as i know talks about reconciliation with the north and talks about the need
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to have a dialogue and i think south korea really wants to take a leading role perhaps in such a framework if it were to come up come about well that's a natural position is not full for north korea's closest neighbor graham coming to you let's look at alternatives and what kind of alternatives all of their for the international community south korea included your in singapore you're in the heart of the association of southeast asian nations i mean what sort of diplomatic ounces being talked about there. the conversations are still quite incoherent to see it at least i think the ten member states on the key member states in these the five six members of the sol association of southeast asian nations haven't really come to a consensus on what to do or what kind of common position to have on the issue in northeast asia. differing perspectives i think everyone still repping the heads
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around how to go to go about playing a role in facilitating some sort of what we forward away from this this impasse we've reached this this recurring series of tests and condemnations and so forth that i just you know with normal. insight. well i it's hard it's hard to see right now there's a perception which i think is quite inaccurate in southeast asia that this is the fundamentally a great power problem that needs to be worked out between well involving china and the u.s. to move the chess pieces to toward some sort of right structure right ok and aid and let me come back to you because we heard the words of rex tillerson and he was suggesting that the solution lies with russia china access but but tell us a little bit more about this idea or de capitation which was a an idea that was openly discussed about removing the head of
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of the regime in north korea and that was certainly discussed in south korea i mean what is the status of that yeah i thought subprime example to me of the kind of talk which frankly isn't isn't helpful in the slightest quite apart from the fact that in its non-metaphorical sense that something that's all too gruesome the real to us now thanks to islamic state and new neighbors of carter as i won't go into that and so on the idea that you just you fight the threat i mean it's very difficult for south korea not saying if he or for anybody to deal with north korea there are no good solutions but saying we'll go after you and saying it so openly i mean imagine kim jong un in just assumes a priority that this is enemies would want to do that if they actually could it just you know a threat stokes up threat i mean this is also what i think is unhelpful about what trump does we're going back to russia and china it is of course unfortunate that there is not a global consensus these these unanimous u.n.
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security council resolutions eight of them so far are in a sense misleading that unanimity is port of a price the price of watering down the resolution so we get china and russia on board and unfortunately the overall global situation between the great powers is such that china and russia are not about to do anything to help as they see. america's game but at the end of the day it does come down to china it doesn't help anybody to lecture china and tell them do this do that but i think kim jong un should watch out because if he pushes china too far there's a lovely phrase or china scholar perry link used the anaconda in the chandelier i think you may be able to cope you know that china will put up with a lot but one day you know if kim jong un pushes china too far you know what if they cut the oil he's gone right bruce it seems very much as a key to any response is going to be officially they say a stance simply that they want the denuclearization of the korean peninsula but
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perhaps on officially from different scholars i've heard there are three except in the fact that denuclearization is improbable if not impossible and so what do you do then you accept north korea as a nuclear state and you as a perhaps i mentioned before pick up on arms control measures to make sure that there is no proliferation of weapons from north korea you cap what they what they have you allow them to keep what they made so far if they're interested in having a conversation about that and you prevent them from sending anyone else nuclear weapons or technology and developing any more themselves. does russia hold that position exactly as i say i'm not sure but i believe they're closer than that and then you have the u.s. who simply won't have talks right now and won't accept the fact at least a stance ability that that you look denuclearization is not impossible they're still holding out hope for that one completely different pages right now all right graham is due to be a trip to the region by donald trump i believe that's in
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a month will say is time next week he's due to address the general assembly i'm just wondering what do you make of this particular moment in time in terms of of how big a problem is this usa for american foreign policy you know extremely big big problem certainly because there's no. sidestepping or voiding the north korean issue it's certainly here to stay it's stuck because of the amount of testing that has gone on the intensity in the you know the bellicosity of the. rhetoric from pyongyang and from all sides response to what kim jong un has said it was officials have said i think we can expect an interim visit to the region for him to try and rally support . for some kind of movement from r.c. on to step up the pressure has been talking to regard over the last few months about. r.c. arms on which in complicity if you like in terms of the ongoing trade between some
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of the arson economies and north korea that's been going on for the last few decades nothing sinister about that just the way things are in terms of trade relations and the thinking is that if our son turns out the tap on it's an item of about one hundred over million dollars worth of trade coming out from this region that could also help to hurt. and to get it to to change its course of action all right at that point i'll say thank you all very much indeed very very interesting conversation graham own web in singapore and even foster carter in exeter in england and bruce harrison insult thank you all very much indeed and as ever thank you for watching the program you can see it again any time you like by going to the web site out there dot com should you want more discussion you can go to our facebook page at facebook dot com for with that a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a.j. inside story i'm at martin dennis so for me and the whole team here in doha it's by
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documentaries that open your eyes at this time on al-jazeera. sanctions or dialogue the divide in the international there his approach to a defiant north korea. and the shock here this is out of their life and also coming out.

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