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tv   Inside Story 2017 Ep 265  Al Jazeera  September 24, 2017 2:32pm-3:00pm AST

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this has been scenes to twenty fifth of august the fastest and most urgent refugee emergency in the world you know the figures but let me repeat them we estimate that four hundred then almost four hundred and thirty thousand refugees from myanmar or from northern iraq kind state have poor into bangladesh in the past few week stand for most violence has to stop because it is that violence that has caught because the flight of the people violence has to stop the main challenger to germany's chancellor angela merkel has cast his ballot in the general election social democrat candidate martin schultz has urged people to boycott the far right and the immigration a.f.d. party polls suggest that merkel has a strong lead for a possible fourth term in office the taliban says that it was behind a suicide attack on a nato convoy in afghanistan's capital kabul security sources have told her that at
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least three people died several others were injured the attacker detonated a car bomb targeting a danish military convoy and those are the headlines on al-jazeera the news continues here right after today's inside story next. just days after the u.s. president calderon a rogue nation tehran says it has successfully tested a new ballistic missile i thought what would that mean for the landmark twenty fifteen you clear agreement this is inside story.
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hello and welcome to the program today with me when world powers came together to sign the twenty fifty nuclear agreement framework with iran it was hailed as a historic achievement it was the first time iran had agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions but two years later and with a distinctly different presidents in the white house that agreement faces an ounce in future president donald trump has now threatened to withdraw from that agreement holding the islamic republic a quote rogue state now iranian state media have released footage of what they say is the successful launch of a ballistic missile it was unveiled at a military parade just a few hours before the test president hassan rouhani says tehran will not seek permission from any country to strengthen its defense capabilities we'll bring in
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our guests in just a moment a first this report from sin and. these are iran's latest ballistic missiles with a range of two thousand kilometers they can reach much of the middle east including israel during his speech president hassan rouhani defended his country's right to protect itself. no matter if you like it or not we will boost our defense and military power to the extent deemed necessary for deterrence we will not seek permission from anyone to defend our country and our land. that's likely to cause more anger at the white house president donald trump called iran iraq nation during his address at the u.n. this week and has threatened to withdraw from the two thousand and fifteen nuclear agreement frankly that deal is an embarrassment to the united states and i don't think you've heard the last of it believe me it is time for the entire
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world to join us in demanding that iran's government and its pursuit of death and destruction. a group of six world powers namely china france russia the united kingdom the u.s. and germany are part of the deal which included the lifting of sanctions for iran scurrying up its nuclear program analysts say the trump administration isn't likely to back down on the agreement president i think there are two aspects that are problematic about this deal first is his overall perspective towards the muslim world which i would characterize as was deep intactness and the second is basic business s. this deal doesn't make sense from an american business perspective it doesn't benefit the united states economically the core of our of the iran nuclear deal is that it brought made a series of concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for the united states
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essentially lifting sanctions on other countries. the international powers that brokered the deal are pressing the white house stick by it their grammont prevent iran from its nuclear activities for ten to fifteen years it also allows them to maintain some of its nuclear stockpiles for research and medical purposes although it's not clear what happens after that or if the united states withdraws from there freeman seen on the soul of al-jazeera. it heard a lot about the twenty fifteen uclear agreement with iran it was signed between tehran and six world powers the u.s. the u.k. france china and russia plus germany they agree to lift sanctions against iran in exchange for the government's curbing of its nuclear program the deal restricts amongst other things the amount of nuclear fuel that iran can keep for the next
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fifteen years and it prevents its ability to use to radioactive materials you rhenium and plutonium to make weapons to do that iran stockpile of low enriched uranium had to be reduced by ninety eight percent and two thirds of its installed centrifuges had to be cut the deal also calls for sanctions to be imposed quickly if the agreement is violated and inspectors from the un's nuclear watchdog get access to iran's nuclear sites any time ok let's bring in our panel joining us here from stockholm is the former prime minister of sweden and cochairman of the european council on foreign relations carl bildt in tehran humble on a dairy a journalist with the daily english language newspaper cairo and international and from richmond virginia mark fitzpatrick director of the international institute for strategic studies who previously spent twenty six years at the u.s. state department welcome to you all coal built this iranian missile launch how
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dangerous is it. i don't think that isolated myside launch is particularly dangerous this is part of an only going away in program for quite some time. in defense surface are not particularly impressive but they invest in mr program they invest in special forces they don't have money for very much else but i think those in political terms should also be interpreted now as if i instigate is trump i think the trunk rhetoric. leaving whatever he will do the nuclear agreement waiting for was the consensus in tehran needs to continue this research program so in itself not particularly exciting but with the politics of it yes problematic mark fitzpatrick in richmond we've known for some time that iran could in theory say hit a target like israel it's got the range so why attentions increasing today when i think minister built put it exactly right that iran is responding to
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president trump's bellicose statement at the u.n. and that this missile is part of a development program that's been in play person time iran's missile development is going on in a much slower pace compared to north korea's just a few missile tests a year compared to over two thousand point north korea and i think iran is probably seeking this particular missile because of their missiles in its inventory have not proven so we back to the previous missile the city of two hasn't been tested successfully persepolis years and perhaps iran was not able to acquire the various materials needed to fuel that missile so they are now experimenting with the same core i'm sure missile and are very interested why does the iranian leadership feel the need to day to flex those muscles. this has nothing to do with flexing muscles as your distinguished guests just mentioned it has nothing to do
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with iran in defiance of president trumps you know. threats military threats or iran not being able to upgrade and improve its missile defense capabilities this has everything to do with iran's right to defend itself under international and un charter make no mistake trump has been around for a couple of months probably six months or so but iran's missile defense program has been around for more than twenty seven years so before trump and after the after trump this program is going to continue apace for the simple fact that iran does not get permission from any country or outside power to determine how it is supposed to defend itself as far as iran's nuclear. deterrence capabilities are concerned i have talked to several military commanders the tests will continue
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apace in the coming weeks i have and months and by the way get ready for a new surprise because iran will soon send a new satellite into orbit so we have pretty much at vance our capabilities in this particular field and at the same time i would like to repeat what president rouhani said yesterday iran's missile defense capabilities does not pose any threat to its neighbors whatsoever. built just to be clear here we're talking about a missile launch missile launches ballistic missiles are not covered by the nuclear deal that is to do very clearly with your rein him in richmond. well it has to do with the note the program that is correct what is prohibited is of course that any sort of nuclear you start nuclear armed missiles and that goes without saying. now iran is claiming which i only correct that. these are the sites that do not have been tension but if you were. the us you say that there is language in the security
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council resolutions that you spend to deter discourage iran from from these six but strictly speaking. there is no international coalition against iran having this particular program most marked better except that it's been been ongoing for a fairly long time and i think as a background to the experience of the iran iraq war especially mark you want to let me let me jump in here yes let me just provide a little bit more detail about the security council resolution twenty two thirty one that does speak to this question. on iran not to test missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear weapons and this missile system that was just has this certainly capable of carrying nuclear weapons it's based on soviet scud systems that were developed for nuclear weapons delivery so there's no
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question about its nuclear weapons capability or why it was originally developed and your guest from tehran had noted that iran has been developing missiles for twenty seven years it's pretty well established that part of that program did have the intention to mated with nuclear weapons now the nuclear weapons part has been put on hold because they actually did the right normally would be off before a missile was giving her an involvement and that's why the threat. it is you know it has nothing to do with red excuse me. what you're trying to say is that iran can iran's missiles can carry these nuclear warheads the problem is iran doesn't have nuclear warheads if you are in doubt please be my guest and ask the i.a.e.a. and go through all its you know reports and investigations over the past couple of years they have made it absolutely clear that iran has not violated the terms of the nuclear agreement with the world powers and the international community iran
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does not have a nuclear weapons program because iran doesn't need a nuclear weapons program you don't only need missile defense capabilities to defend itself within its own borders for the simple fact that the trump white house and this madman in tel aviv who is called benjamin netanyahu keeps threatening us with so-called military options please be a little bit fair and go through the eye over the last couple of months or years. we all understand that iran does not have a nuclear weapon and it is prohibited and it is said it has no intention but the fact is that it used to have a nuclear weapons program associated with its missile program and in the future it could resume their nuclear program and have well developed missiles that's why it is of concern that are just like these nations who are like you you are free to speculate you are pretty you excuse me you are pretty you are free to speculate but you are speculating under the assumption that you know what you hear from the white
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house and tel aviv are right this is not the which is not true iran is not going to develop nuclear program today tomorrow or ever because you don't doesn't need nuclear weapons where where are we supposed to drop these weapons we don't need them why should we need what should be you have nuclear weapons we love to have perfect relations with our arab neighbors in the persian gulf we love to have perfect relations even with saudi arabia but the problem is the trump white house the deal conservatives and israeli regime and the zionist lobby in washington don't don't let that happen that is the problem gadahn a very high i'm going to. try thinking is towards at least two other discussions let's take it back to cull bill for a second call built is there are double standard here go with me on this one is there a certain double standard we know that israel has a nuclear capability we think it's between eighty and ninety nuclear warheads it's beg borrow or steal or stolen all the kids to go with that nobody in washington is
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pointing a finger at the government in jerusalem in just over the past couple of months the u.s. has been testing ballistic missiles around the world as well so and it's not looking itself saying we've got a power game either so what's really going on here. no i mean if that is absolute true of course that israel is assumed to have a fairly substantial nuclear force would also have advanced the most probably higher position medium range ballistic missiles that can come in most of the region . that that's part of the question and i believe i belong to those that think that one should work towards a nuclear persona in the very middle east without going too much into that it technicality or what is nuclear capable i mean a lot of things are nuclear capabilities say three aircraft is nuclear capable although it's not tonight. the old scott says mark looted two which is the beginning of these which goes back to the germany to do the second world war yeah but what that was nuclear capable of question but that in the soviet awesome but it
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was also used very widely in the iran iraq war from those sites with conventional weapons to what effect one can discuss and i think it's that particular experience from that particular conflict and the use of ballistic missiles for to mention all threatening deterrence or harassment purposes of whatever you call that is one of the backgrounds to what we see from the ranger side not ok are there double standards well in structure seconds there are a couple of other big points i want to get to call bill can donna terry in tehran if america pulls out how will iran react. well if that is going to happen iran won't bother at all because this is an international agreement with the world power powers and only and the us is only one party to this important deal the us is going to isolate itself and other discussion it is not going to hurt the nuclear the air for the simple fact that the whole international
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national community even iran's neighbors qatar saudi arabia kuwait everybody else also support this important nuclear deal for the simple fact that it is going to help establish peace and security in the region which is what we all need so the white house is free to walk out we don't care but we are going to have much better relations with the international community and prove to them even to the north korea that i mean it cannot be trusted when it comes in international negotiations and at the same time deals so america's going to isolate itself we would love to see that go ahead and make our day mark fitzpatrick if america pulls out what is that signal saying or sending to north korea because north korea might then surely turn around and say well hang on you've pulled out of the deal the deal one assumes would stay in place because then it would be one plus five not one plus six but then pyongyang might turn around and say well how can we negotiate with you if you back out of your promises and your pledges what you've just said is so clear and
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should be understood by everyone it's one of the strong arguments why the united states should not hold out of the nuclear deal sends a signal not just to the north koreans who unfortunately aren't interested it appears in negotiating anyway but it certainly doesn't exactly the signal that you suggested it also sends a signal to other countries that you know and states does not maintain the u.s. but i want to just introduce another caution here. whenever the united states decision is in the next couple of weeks about. certifying or not now the run is in compliance with the deal won't necessarily mean that the united states is pulling out of it i think the united states has several decision points several cards to play and i think it will be a little cautious itself about pulling out of the deal when it might do is impose additional sanctions and hope that iran poses out of the deal and both sides might
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hope the other side poses out cold bill you're nodding in a knowledge meant there is there another potential carolla really here and it's this that the other european powers who've pushed for this who have that that strategy of distant engagement they might end up looking a little bit weaker well i'm not quite certain there will be that we could see because as was pointed out that it was essential to go straight between the united states and iran that's true that it had been sort of facilitated by the european union and very much supported by russia and china and it's endorsed unanimously by the u.n. security council so it is an international agreement and i agree i don't think sort of us will leave it sort of openly but they will try to provoke in different ways so that one way or the other that they can play that iran is in violation to it i was slightly encourage i would say by president rouhani is rather moderate approach
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of the when he talked at the u.n. general assembly he was not overly provoked by president trump and i think it is very important that the iranian leadership don't call into the trap that very obviously the hardliners in that the trumpet ministration is trying to to to to set for them so mark fitzpatrick when donald trump says the deal is an embarrassment is a good deal it's a solid deal everyone's on board. what's he basing that on what's embarrassing about this accord the disagreement they put together. well ok i don't agree with what he said but i can understand some of it is that the deal there was a hope that the deal would be transformative not was strictly transactional and strictly a nuclear deal but there was a hope that it would help to change iran's behavior in the region and at home and it hasn't had any such effect iran's involvement in neighboring countries has
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increased its domesticity posture has not changed. and it has a seized additional american citizens during the last a couple of years which is of grave concern to all americans plus incidence in the gulf. of harassment of u.s. ships have increased of late so there are many reasons why president trump and others in the united states feel anger at iran and and wish that this nuclear deal could have been used to help control that and it wasn't it hasn't changed iran's behavior at all call built i mean the economies of the country vastly different populations vastly different but could this deal as it stands even if it survives a trump decision to withdrawal could this still be used as a template for the beginnings of negotiations with north korea. i don't think it will be kept at that but at least if you don't if you look at it it's because it's very different situations so we know what the north korean does have nuclear
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weapons does have zero clue told me i'm an uranium production capabilities weapons grade has at the very much more advanced myside program that i think we were aware of until fairly fairly recently so it's a much more tricky that any much more closer site not that iranians normally that open but i mean much more close society north korean gets. so that is adept at in that respect but of course as you alluded to if the united states were to walk away from this equipment the one way or the other different ways of doing then of course the arguments that might be involved by someone in pyongyang to the supreme leader there. say we should negotiate with americans that argument risks being a. being having no credibility whatsoever so in that sense what happens now with iran has fairly significant implications for the remote possibilities of the
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diplomatic solution of the north korean crisis which is far far work we do we have a crisis understood hand on a theory until wrong briefly because we're heading towards the end of the program this is perhaps can i suggest you a perfect storm of a story for mr rouhani because he gets to play to a domestic a domestic audience and also an international audience at precisely the same time. well that's that's a good point you just mentioned i attended the parade yesterday which marks the an anniversary of the iran iraq war on iran in the one nine hundred eighty s. the only person who has spoken that parade was president rouhani and he spoke what he what he had agreed with military commanders who were standing by the way beside him that he is going to continue to foreign policy in the region a pace at the same time he's going to support iran's decision to improve its defense capabilities i think president rouhani has come to the conclusion that if
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he wants to stay in power he has no choice but to stick to the establishment and at the same time you know keep his supporters happy but at the end of the day every politician gives a lot of promises that at the end of the day it's unable to deliver president rouhani has not been an exception he won the votes because he made promises but as far as his domestic policies are concerned he hasn't delivered on his promises yet ok mr dewey thank you for the final brief point to both call built and mark fitzpatrick all built is there a sense in which donald trump has brought this on himself he's taking a situation and it's turning into a crisis. i think it is particularly i mean you can't blame him for the north korean crisis because that's been there for a long time and primarily caused by what the north koreans are doing your views on there are three separate thing here i think he's taken a situation where it dislikes the wrong agreement it's like the iran regime understand to some extent and here he provokes
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a crisis in my opinion is unnecessary enough of problems at the least mark fitzpatrick we are promoting a crisis in your mind where you think it's going to end up. i'm sorry to say that although we don't have a crisis today i think we will have a crisis in the months to come i think probably president trump will not certify that iran is in compliance even though clearly it is he'll do that on national security grounds which are a valid legal reason and then it's up to the u.s. congress to whether to reimpose sanctions it will have a fast track plate of ability to do so and i believe it probably will impose some previous sanctions some of these will be secondary sanctions which will cause european firms to be more reluctant to enter into trade agreements and investments in iran iran will have reduced benefits from the j.c. p.o. iran deal and iran might eventually decide that it is not in its interest to
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continue or it will want to up the ante and and try to provoke or threaten the united states by resuming. nuclear enrichment. r. and d. research and development at a higher level or something else so i think i think the crisis is going to be on building in stages over the past few months maybe we have to talk about that again on your show i'm sure we will gentleman the clock has beaten us as ever on inside story thank you so much for your company today thanks to all our guests the former prime minister of sweden called built and bought a dairy mark fitzpatrick thank you too for watching you can see the program again whenever you want on the website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion check out the facebook page facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story or tweet me i'll switch back to pizza topping one join the conversation on twitter for me he said i'll be on the team here in the thank you for your company will see a very sort of
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a. for decades puerto rico's schools of being crumbling beneath the weight of massive debt now one hundred seventy nine it due to close for good the largest closure of schools in the history of this u.s. territory is a frightening development this elementary school will remain open but will take in one hundred fifty of the twenty seven thousand students due to be relocated that's double its current student body over the last decade enrollment of puerto rico schools has dropped by more than forty percent as families continue to leave those
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left behind often don't have the means to follow suit but ultimately it's now puerto rico's poor communities that are paying the price for this island's staggering debt. too often on the streets of eighty million are victims but a new force is at play. female police officers are combat ing sexual assault and domestic abuse. but changing society is a challenge and so is life behind the bags for india's needy cause. at this time. i resell kerry and these are the top stories on al-jazeera the crisis in the cross .

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