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tv   Inside Story 2017 Ep 285  Al Jazeera  October 14, 2017 3:32am-4:01am AST

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deal but his country remains committed to it international powers including britain france and germany are urging chump not to undermine the agreement police in kenya have shot and killed at least two people during protests against the electoral commission opposition supporters defied a ban on demonstrations calling for reforms to prevent fraud in the rerun of the presidential presidential poll in two weeks' time. france's form of culture minister. has been named as unesco's new director general she succeeds bulgaria's it in a book over at a turbulent time with the united states and israel saying they'll withdraw from the un's cultural agency venezuela's are preparing to vote in sunday's regional elections for twenty three governorships the opposition parties are predicted to win most of the seats as nicolas maduro his presidency is embroiled in political and economic crises. as anti immigrant freedom party has ended its election
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campaign with a rally in vienna immigration has been a major issue ahead of sunday's votes party's leader hinds christian kids the government governing coalition of trying to swap out austin people for muslims as the headlines the news continues but first it is inside story. turkish troops cross the border into syria and korea says it's to enforce a deescalation zone deal with so many foreign forces in the country though which they don't mean for the unity of syria and the prospects of peace this is inside
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story. i welcome to the show i'm sam is a than dozens of turkish soldiers of crossed into had lived province in syria as part of an agreement between russia iran and turkey the escalation zones it's a move that bringing peace to syria we'll get to our guests but first this report from. from the border with syria. turkey's cross border operation is underway these are soldiers from a special unit tasked with setting surveillance post in it live province. turkey aims to enforce a cease fire agreement that was signed last month. president.
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said the move was crucial for turkey's national security. it is that our front here we have to take our precautions no one has the right to tell us why are you doing this we're the country with nine hundred eleven kilometer border with syria where there was that under harassment and threat no one has the right to tell us why did you do this. turkish soldiers are seen here in. a village on those border with. not far from areas controlled by the white p.g. syrian kurdish faction turkey has repeatedly insisted it won't allow fighters to expand further to worse the northwestern provinces of and latakia thank you this is a delicate operation for turkey. is mostly controlled by hate and.
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if formal qaeda affiliate. rejects the deescalation agreement vowing to fight to the death it's not yet clear if the group will be turkey's next target turkey's main concern was all new. people but after changing this. referendum process. after kurdish more. than border off to syria to turkey on thursday egypt and opposition fighters a cease fire agreement in the east of the. rebel stronghold in the syrian capital damascus. the deal would allow the rebels to get humanitarian aid in their besieged areas but would also allow government troops to shift their focus to the east where
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they are on the battle against icily the military campaign in syria poses many challenges for turkey and qatar as stated goal is to ensure a ceasefire agreement holds in but it's real motive might be denying the kurds access to areas like the coastal province of latakia has about. one turkish border with syria so what was agreed on that the istana talks in kazakstan then you may remember in september turkey russia and iran all agreed to set up deescalation zones in syria for six months the areas in mainly opposition held parts of the country are used in court are it lip taqiyya aleppo and hammer zones are aimed at avoiding fighting between the different warring groups syrian army and its allies on the one hand and the us backed rebels during the six rounds of diplomatic talks the government delegation and armed opposition groups have traded barbs staged a walkout and disagreed on proposed resolutions. let's
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bring our panel into the show now we have joining us here in the studio marwan caroline he's director of policy analysis at the doha institute from istanbul mateen good chan and columnist at our monitors turkey pulse and via skype from washington d.c. douglas ollivant senior national security fellow at the new america think tank welcome to you all if i could start with men team perhaps how do you see this mateen will the deployment of turkish forces indeed live cements the deescalation deal first i have to say that i'm in a do this is not a surprise i think and this is now an unilateral american craft unilateral act what we're seeing is in sort of negotiated. in accordance with our star now talk saw yesterday night was mechanized infantry units and a command or some commando units to cross the border and deployed in the north of.
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it so. i will say that the first stage of the operation which was the reconnaissance observations and negotiations phase of the operation particularly for the north of here is all work so the second stage is right now has just started so what is uncut are subjective with this second stage is two objectives first one is to create or establishments monitoring belt i would say monitoring payout starting from where a whole new town on. turkey and stretching to the. region you to feel chilled park and saw in this fifty kilometers long so on has been planning to establish fourteen different observateur of military all sports for what first one is to monitor the existing ceasefire which is the open object there
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and the second one is there is all asian and containment of all offering count on beaches currently under p.k. k. affiliated to i.p.o. forces ok let's bring marwan here in the studio into the discussion so turkey's got a monitoring belt in place says nineteen does this mean the prospects of peace a peaceful resolution are growing is it time to celebrate i think it's bit early for that but let's me. remind our viewers that. the fall of final ball was a turning point actually in this conflict and because after that the whole process of us athon are kicked off and since then the whole dynamic of the syrian conflict has shifted has changed and now favor of the regime and that is on one hand and also. the relationship between the three major powers the three major players in the syrian conflict because we have seen turkey iran and russia supporting in a war by proxy supporting different factions in this conflict supported the syrian
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opposition over the past four five years whereas iran and russia supported the city and today we have we are seeing the three major players actually coming together quite a bit ings trying to end this conflict that in my opinion is a very positive the fun of men because we see in syria when these when these different parties actually fight the syrians would pay the price actually because they have been fighting for the boss for fight so you think this could lead to a bigger chance at a peaceful resolution yet i think i would say so i would see a saw but even if that does not lead to political solution to this crisis something that might be not very and we might not see any soon at leas that would end the bloodshed that would end the conflict between the easy my under siege some of them and that might be if they have their way actually for further discussion concerning
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to put for a solution douglas in washington it's interesting listening to model one they said the three major players where is the u.s. is its influence a whining i mean so much the u.s. has importance of waning as the u.s. does not have the security interests in syria that the other three powers just mentioned do the iranians have a obvious ally in syria as do the russians one of the you real allies the russians have major ally the iranians and of course the border the united states has none of those so it's not that the united states influence is waning it's similar data our interests are it's the u.s. does have allies in the form of groups which it's backing in the conflict. we have groups that we're backing but i think any observer would have to say our attempts have been somewhat half hearted when it doesn't come to fighting isis when it comes to fighting isis we're very serious when it comes to resolving the syria conflict
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let's not let somebody else's problem this thing because i mean this is exactly what the united states had been doing what the boss come to feel as the main focus actually was i said it had nothing to care about it actually changing the dynamic of this heat and conflict or even finding a solution to this set of this conflict but that has led on the other hand to marginalizing the united states in and this and this conflict and it's in my being it's not true that the americans don't have security interests in syria otherwise why would the actually. supporting. the c.d.n. democratic forces on one hand and why they are investing so much heavy and then what in the northeast but is symbolic of syria but i mean i guess from washington said let's give douglas a chance to come back in on that the united states is a superpower we have interests everywhere the question is what is the intensity of our interests we do not have the intensity for lack of
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a better word we do not say syria is critical to our interests of the middle east as we do other places do we put some effort into syria yes are we willing to pay a very high price to achieve a certain outcome in syria that no we're not all right so with and with when they have to say is don't. get in the seat in clumps that conflict and in the knees and you have seen that eyes off which brought the united states once again to the ija and so it's for me it's a bit complicated issue because on one hand what americans are going to have security interests and syria on the other hand when i said actually gets think then that medicare's would bring all of their forces actually back to the reason and start this conflict let's bring mateen in since we're talking about the neighboring countries which do have. critical security. interesting and acknowledge that syria is that is this are we witnessing the. something of the carving up of syria into zones of foreign influence through this the escalation deal i think i don't think
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so i mean here is the case you know the worst case or not me your scenario for the preachin is there is asian pressure there is a sion of. becoming. the harper that will tretton not on the future of syria but also the future of the security of the region so this is the first thing that we should. vishal prevent the second issue i think in ankara strategic thinking you know. fear of being encircled or surrounded by and p.k. k. or kurdish rebels stretching from the region in northern iraq we are seeing return . to accountants in the east of your affairs here and probably can't once and with this african count on to the eastern mediterranean so ankara is stinking that this
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should be deferred stret. tackle so i think this is the prime motive for shaping all outcomes right now in in ankara ok that's interesting not only do you think the syrians see this move towards. establishing peace in syria or more about containing the syrian kurds which to ankara appear to be some kind of threat is very true but on the one hand if you ask about syrians depends on which syrian you are talking about because if you are talking about loyalists those who are supporting that they have different different answer to that if you are talking to the opposition and also within the opposition there are different answers to that but concerned in turkey and its interest in in fact i see this this process the whole process having to mean objectives for. the other parties to this agreement that your onions and that a chance for turkey is the main issue here is containing the free and the dominated
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the could dish dominated a free area and the northwestern part of the country and by getting involved intervening militarily and directly in adlib we have in fact just surrounded the whole area which are the cause are controlling in this part and because i was not them from moving out not spam they don't know i am there their current that the turks actually deal with very much concern that the americans will be supporting the senior democratic forces into a military operation into the abyss is why we have seen the turks actually coming for us trying to prevent any probability that the americans would be sending the syrian democratic forces into it and tried to finish it all off the. front this is something that the turks have have to actually stop right now but on the other hand for the turks and the russians and the iranians this is all saw an attempt in order to. create
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a sham and so we have the turkish government trying to contain the kurds we have the iranians and the russians on the other hand trying actually to overthrow or to weaken and lost a lot front in this operation douglas what would it mean for syria's. full of the region for the world if the kurdish syrian kurds are able to push out of their own claims and create some kind of united toe tree clearly the turks would would not be fans of this and it's hard to see the turks allowing that to stand. and it's not clear to me that the kurds could do that absent u.s. support and i don't think that there will be u.s. support or kurdish expansion the us is happy to support the kurds and fighting isis once that's over i suspect that support will significantly diminished. or turkey isn't the only country in the region right now which is very worried about the
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kurds long running tensions between iraqi kurdistan and the central government have escalated since last month's controversial referendum on kurdish the session from baghdad iran also has concerns about kurdish empowerment there are iranian kurdish groups on their side of the border with aspirations of independence to middle eastern states do have that history of allying with each others kurdish rebels to undermine neighboring governments but now it appears central governments have a common fear of rising kurdish our interesting development team do you think that policy towards kurds is going to continue to drive divergence perhaps between anchor in particular and washington that's right i mean right now what we're seeing in iraq and in syria is that you know isis threat is more or less or we're. going to end in this prosperity or setting you know the kurdish. living in the hot states of horse the status of syria and iraq they are. you know emerging as the
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most successful actors. who can. expand its early of influence in territorial terms and also who has big stakes and big expectations for how to manage this expectations of existing particle sis i mean contacts in the region so there's why. for instance has been feeling this increased expectations as an a direct threat for their you know. political beings so i guess why we see a sort of. reprimand between at the moment because of this convergent interest in the post i said i think the management of the increase a shelter and thought. express agency of cards you made earlier about to prime factors have been called out are you made the point about repression on between one
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current or are let's not also forget marwan baghdad is very much a player in the game of kurdish power do you see these countries forming some kind of loose alliance at least on the issue of how to confront rising kurdish power i don't i don't i don't think we can talk here about an alliance i can talk about convergence of interests about the kurdish the prevention of the court did establishments of a court dish state in the region because if we go back to ed live and the turkish operation in adelaide why the the turks the turkish government was actually trying to prevent a u.s. backed is the f. forces from moving print from a free and southward towards. to overthrow that all of them. want their turkish government on the other hand was going to prevent both iran and russia from entering into and try actually to overthrow a national front so we have the turks actually playing to have to fold here objectively and on one hand preventing the united states from entering the u.s.
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backed forces from entering into another one hundred one thing that the iranians and the russians from doing exactly the same so this is maybe a point of contention between ankara and perhaps washington and moscow but when it comes to as you said the convergence of interests between the her on ankara and baghdad absolutely the also agree on the prevention of their stablish much of a kurdish state where all actually in line concerning this issue douglas the u.s. on the one hand supports kurds in syria the y.t.d. which is the main component of the syrian democratic forces but the u.s. has opposed this sort of independence push by iraqi kurds how coherent and is there a coherent u.s. policy towards kurds in the whole region i think so i just i don't think the kurds have clearly understood it washington sees itself as a friend of the. courage throughout the region as some state actors we are friendly with them we have good relations with them we're able to do
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a lot of things with and through them that does not mean that we are supportive of their changing international boundaries unilaterally and declaring states and washington mean that extraordinarily clear to irby all we flew principles to send that message to or be all and tell them quite clearly that we thought this was a monumentally bad idea and that there would be negative consequences which could not be totally predicted but would certainly be negative and now that seems to be happening and we're kind of an i told you so moment with the kurds and they may have to live with the consequences of what they've done in iraq and this is very interesting. statement in my opinion because for me i mean it means that the united states is using the ca's as a proxy in the fight against eisen and the ones that our fight against isis is finished the americans will most probably actually abandon the cause and give them fierce i mean the major the major powers and that is you know who are actually
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trying to put in them because the kurds actually we're expecting to be rewarded by the united states by the international community for their own in the fight against assad by supporting the you know their their intention to the to the canadian independent states and now we are using this feeling let down i think so i mean this is what the what the what the some of them actually have been expressing the oppressed mission and disappointment at the position of both the united states and the obion. that you actually can see happening. that they found them and then off a doc has to convince a couple of weeks ago let me give douglas a chance to come back in on that would you agree with that analysis i think that's right i think the kurds are disappointed but i think the united states made it crystal clear what what our expectations were and what the limitations of our support for quite frankly the united states thought the kurdish referendum was a bad idea that it was not good for kurdistan and we thought we were being
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a good friend to the kurds by telling them that you know your good friend is the one who tells you when you're about to make a mistake not the one who encouraged you to do it. mateen wherever this is heading and however much power in much international support there is if you look at some of the trends i mean the fight against isis in iraq for example has left iraqi kurds in control of forty percent more land and as we know stronger international backing at least up until the referendum the wife e.g. or the syrian kurds have made similar achievements because of the fight against eisel there in syria in june in your country in turkey the political party headed received the highest percentage of votes from the turkish in the turkish kurdish political history is any of this unstoppable maybe one thing to try and and stop the kurds from ascending further work can any of this be reversed i mean doesn't there have to be at some point some different calculus on how to actually deal with
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the kurdish question. this is the million dollar world question at hand at the moment so the question is how to accommodate the increased expectations in syria and iraq in kurdish expectations and with the existing particle system in the region as i said before and let me say this i mean right now in the post isis i think what we need in iraq and in syria is an. kind of calm. sort of a deescalation a sort of softening and then also a people's staying away from the armed conflict so i think in this. issue the order to get this is. what we need is much more communication instead of you know. military operations and much more dialogue so the question is at hand you know how to integrate daws you know kurds who felt themselves
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a linear ated in iraq and in syria and then how to buy into how to create a sort of new refresh the center peripheral relationship in iraq and in syria and all actors regional actors turkey iran and syria and iraq around baghdad and damascus they have to think about that but more importantly the system level actors russia and the yes there should be a sort of top down top down consolatory top down conforte inker relaxed approach and this why i think. the corporation or confrontation between the united states and russia is the prime prime. factors that are mine and all outcomes so what we see you actually. i know we can we can talk about this economy asian i mean come on television. russia
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and commonly this is the think we need for everybody in this. conflict thank our guests so mark schneider one couple are here in the studio with you know charles and douglas all of them and thank you to fortune can see the show again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com for further discussion had over one facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story can also join the conversation on twitter and there is at a.j. inside story from a sam is a than the whole team here for now with fine. bonus
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