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tv   Inside Story 2017 Ep 286  Al Jazeera  October 15, 2017 10:32am-11:01am AST

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and they say that they are confident in the two or three hours from now they will make a final announcement saying that russia is finally and control at least twenty people have been killed in two bomb attacks in somalia's capital mogadishu a truck bomb targeted an area with many government offices hotels and restaurants armed men then attacked a hotel and for a gun battle with police a second blast hit the city's medina district. austria is going to snap election today that could see the far right freedom party enter into government as part of a coalition the election is a year early after the current government fell apart in may with the conservative people's party leading opinion polls ahead of the vote austria could elect the world's youngest leader today and voters in kyrgyzstan are heading to the polls for the presidential election none of the candidates is expected to win outright with many analysts predicting a runoff between two former prime ministers security has been high due to
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kyrgyzstan's violent political history the first two leaders since the fall of the soviet union were ousted following riots but the country has since restyled its parliamentary system. there's the headlines i'll be back with more news here here on al-jazeera right after today's inside story next. al-jazeera. every us. donald trump's nuclear reaction is he right about iran the u.s. president refusing to recertify the nuclear deal signed two years ago and accuses the iranians of breaking the agreement iran says allegations are delusional and world leaders are also critical this is inside story.
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hello again i'm james bowie's welcome to inside story after months of bold talk and threats against iran the u.s. president is laying out a new strategy to challenge the leadership in tehran donald trump's refusing to certify the major nuclear deal signed with iran two years ago the obama administration and six world powers agreed to lift a long running sanctions in return for a rainy and promises to limit nuclear weapons development trump says iran is not meeting the conditions of the agreement but stopped short of completely withdrawing from it instead he's asking congress to consider new sanctions on iran by his own terms the iran deal was supposed to contribute to regional and international
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peace and security and yet while the united states said here is to our commitment under the deal the iranian regime continues to feel conflict terror and turmoil throughout the middle east and beyond it didn't take long for iran's president to hit back at what he called trump's pile of delusional allegations has some rouhani says iran will play by its own terms and charge show them why they are giving in and we will continue to cooperate with the international atomic energy agency in the framework of international treaties but if someday our interests are not realize that other parties want to violate their commitments they should be aware that iran will not hesitate a moment and will respond to them and. let's introduce our panel now from washington d.c. alley viruses senior analyst at the international crisis group from tehran will
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stouffer cautious sherm who's a university professor at the applied sciences university as well as a journalist and political commentator we're also joined in washington by daryl kimball who's the executive director of the arms control association welcome to you all i'm sure you all have opinions about this and we'll discuss where we go from here but first i think for our viewers let's explain exactly what happened i'll start with you darrell what is the certification. well what president trump just did was to fail to report to congress that in his view iran is meeting certain conditions you know this is a u.s. law that was passed after the conclusion of the iran nuclear deal the agreement between iran and six world powers and the european union and he said president trump said yesterday that in his opinion the sanctions relief granted to iran under
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the deal is not proportionate to the steps that iran has taken to restrict to severely restrict its nuclear activities and so what that does is it opens the door to congress reconsidering the application of sanctions or other legislation relating to the deal and we've heard from senator bob corker the chairman of the foreign relations committee that he is going to be pursuing legislation that would impose additional sanctions on iran if iran does not extend the limits the time that the limits are due to apply to iran and that amounts to a unilateral attempt to renegotiate the iran nuclear deal and that's why iran the europeans are saying that they're going to stand by the agreement they're not going to stand for a unilateral attempt to renegotiate the terms of this international accord now what congress does we're not quite sure we're going to have
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a months long debate here in washington that my organization the arms control association is going to be deeply engaged in so the future of the iran nuclear deal does hang in the balance so i need to be clear nothing has actually happened to that deal i remember i was there in vienna with you when when it was signed back in september twenty fifteen nothing's actually happened under that deal this is the act of congress that was there to scrutinize. the deal and president. reporting back to congress what's your understanding of exactly the legislation president. is he trying now. to actually have a second mechanism. the judge's compliance. look i think the iran nuclear agreement review act that was passed under the obama administration was designed to basically keep the obama administration's foot to
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fire and force them to certify every ninety days that the nuclear deal remains in the u.s. national interest and this was something that president trump also twice certified but it was well he did so every time very grudgingly and i think he just wanted to get out of that and the certification has allowed him now to toss it back to congress and as darell mentioned congress has sixty day to reimpose sanctions if it deems expedient to do so i think that is a very likely out unlikely outcome congress is not going to reimpose sanctions because iran remains compliant with its obligations under the deal as it has been verified by the u.n. agency in charge of monitoring iran's implementation of the deal even by president own state department. so what is going to happen is that congress is likely going to change the iran nuclear agreement review act and add new conditions to it so it
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would take away the certification and it would probably attach the snap back of sanctions to conditions that are not in the nuclear deal for example it would say if after ten years iran starts ramping up its nuclear program as it has been allowed by the nuclear deal then congress will snap back sanctions or or if iran moves to develop its ballistic missile program further and moves towards a longer range missiles intercontinental ballistic missiles then same. as was snapped back automatically now the problem with this is that this is a unilateral alteration of a multilateral deal that has been enshrined by the un security council and this is in fact blackmailing and twisting the arms of u.s. allies to come join it in violating the agreement and forcing the iranians to accept conditions that were not part of the deal in return for nothing so basically their ministration once its partners to join it and pushing to the iranians to eggs
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accept less for more and i think that's an impossibility was stuff it's not just the nuclear deal that was announced or his what he was going to do with regard certification of the nuclear deal that was announced by president trump there was another piece to his strategy which was fresh strong sanctions on the revolutionary guard what does that mean. well you know since obama started the engagement policy there were critics in tehran who would say that the united states is not just trying to resolve differences over the nuclear issue but it's trying to wear off the components of power of iran that include its nuclear declare and miss on capability is where the its original clout and influence now after a couple of years even those who have pinned hope you know talks with the united states like the president and president rouhani is administration they have even now come to realize that critics were right and the united states apparently does
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not mean at all to resolve the differences it's trying to harness iran to control iran and to win concessions from iran that it failed to win in the battlefield like in syria where the united states has lost its role along with its allies like saudi arabia they are not major players in there anymore and they have failed to hold to keep and maintain their power in there they want to pressure to iran to give these concessions and to revive their role through diplomacy through sanctions and through talks now this is not going to work because the main targets of the efforts antagonistic efforts made by donald trump and the u.s. you know the stat this stablish been in the u.s. . are directed at the wearing off these two components the missile and this really
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as well as the original clout and the i.r.g.c. is responsible for ds to areas of power of iran that's why everyone in tehran from the people to the ministration officials to the lead there everyone has thrown his weight behind the i.r.g.c. and the successful experience of the i.r.g.c. . if command there is threats a few days ago to donald trump that if the us designates the i.r.g.c. as a terrorist organization they would reciprocate dead with a similar there's a nation of the us army as a terrorist entity and behave them and treat them like i saw in the region and that of course includes similar treatment by his valar hamas and other uranium allies in the region that would in care a lot of costs on the us and it it was successful in the tearing the us president and the announcement and there's a nation of keeping away from his promises to designate the i.r.g.c.
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as a terrorist organization now people in tehran that have seen this successful experience they are demanding similar action by the government so are there public into even those who have voted for or heinie they are asking for a tougher tone and the i.r.g.c. has gathered my support i personally have never seen such you know full support by all of our political wings from across the spectrum as well as people into iran and across the country and even people outside the country who have all come to realize that they need now to support the i.r.g.c. let's discuss not only what the trumpet ministration deed but also that speech and what president trump said and the way he say said it darrell to me it seemed to match the general assembly speech of almost a month earlier with its far etonian it was so different from
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a briefing that was given in the white house off camera briefing by the secretary of state rex tillerson that i listened in to on a conference call the tone could not have been more different than in the speech trump said so different again from secretary of state to listen who said that iran was in compliance with the deal that there had been multiple violations is that true. well you're right this was a typical donald trump fire breathing speech. filled with a number of statements that i think really amount to in un doe what he has been saying is that iran has not met its obligations under the iran nuclear deal he cited a couple of things the fact that in january twenty sixth seen iran very briefly exceeded the limits stablished on heavy water which is used as
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a moderator for certain kinds of reactors that violation was actually minor in scope it lasted for a couple of weeks and iran went back into compliance the reality is that iran is in compliance with its heavy water limits and all the other complex and stringent commitments established by mandated by the iran nuclear deal they also allege that iran has intimidated the i.a.e.a. so that the i.a.e.a. the international atomic energy agency does not request inspections of iranian military and military facilities that might be engaged in nuclear activities prohibited nuclear activities now we have to remember the iran nuclear deal a stab a broader mandate for the international atomic energy agency not just to visit declared nuclear facilities but also to conduct snap inspections of those
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facilities as well as iran's uranium mines its centrifuge manufacturing facilities and there have been some four hundred snap inspections conducted by the i.a.e.a. since the iran deal was implemented one and a half years ago. and what trump is alleging is that the i.a.e.a. has not exercised its full authority to conduct challenge inspections of certain facilities that the i.a.e.a. believes may be involved in. activities privative by the j c p a way weapons related activities. the i.a.e.a. said just the director general yukiya amano said in response to donald trump we have had the full authority and we have inspected the facilities that we need to inspect in order to ensure that iran is fully complying with the terms of the deal so this again i think is innuendo it's a suggestion that there may be
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a problem where there hasn't been quite yet. and so you know trump is trying as best he can to suggest incorrectly that iran is somehow violating its nuclear commitments i mean it's not just the i.a.e.a. there are those close to trump his top advisers we mentioned the secretary of state but the secretary of defense the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff they've all said he's the technically under the deal iran is complying i was listening in on a number of conference calls in the last twenty four hours to another one by former obama administration officials including the deputy national security adviser under president obama ben rhodes let me just read you his quote you're looking at an administration that's contorting itself in order to justify the irrational decision of the president. look i couldn't agree more the reality is the president couldn't even base is decision based on the allegation that
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iran has not complied with the deal he used the idea that that will mention previously which is that sanctions relief is not proportionate to iran's actions under the deal in order to decertify he couldn't use noncompliance as justification so i think there is no doubt that the decision was taken based on other reasons based on the fact that the president does not like this deal he has put himself in a rhetorical corner by repeatedly calling it a bad deal and an environment for the united states even before becoming president that he just simply couldn't live with this ninety day certification which was a real burden on his shoulders now the real question is does the certification actually improve iran's behavior across the board on some other issues that the president mentioned in his speech including iran's role in the region and i think if one has an understanding of the sources of iranian conduct in the region one
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would come to the conclusion that putting iran under more pressure and threatening iran across the board and arming its regional rivals more and more would only result in in a more aggressive iranian behavior in the region i think one issue that the president fundamentally does not understand is that if he truly believes that iran is part of the problem in the region and in the turmoil that we see in the region then by definition and inescapably iran will also have to be part of the solution. more stuff when you're there in iran and you're talking to people who heard the trump speech what do they make of some of this language repeatedly he called it iran's dictatorship he said early on in the speech iran is under the control of a fanatical regime that seized power in one nine hundred seventy nine and forced a proud people to submit to its extremist rule how does that go down the. well all apparently many people. you know they hate for this kind of
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language. he's using harsh words his literature is rich with aggressive awards and insults and this has antagonized iranians even more even those they're not very much political people or they don't have political tendencies as well as those that might be even you know not interested in the islamic revolution or the the ruling system they have come forward to stand up to donald trump they rushed to instagram to either their social media networks in order to file or complains especially when he misnamed the waterway the persian gulf and he called the arabian gulf and he antagonized many even those that are considered this opposition of the islamic republic go abroad they also condemned trump for this kind of language so
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he i believe op is trying to you know intensify his rhetorical against iran in order to shoulder height of animosity but when it comes to action he refrains from taking actions after his withdrawal with regard to the paris agreement nafta and returning you know really imposing sanctions on cuba and going you know to after unraveling the moves that were made by obama. he has come to realize that his actions in care costs on his reputation his own reputation so with regard to the deal he wants you know a result there but he is not ready to you know pay the costs so he is what i want to look on the cost of close to one of the last one of policies was stuff for one other thing that president trump said and i know the fact checkers have been busy on his speech. was all about this money you're talking about one hundred billion
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dollars that had been given to the regime he said the regime also received a massive cast cash settlement of one point seven billion from the u.s. when he talked about this he seemed to use the sort of language still of a property sells them the saddest part of the deal for the united states is that of the money was paid up front. which is unheard of rather than at the end of the deal when they have shown they've played by the rules you can fact checkers that for us ali i'm not sure if the president has actually read the agreement and understood the process properly look. if you look to the arguments of critics inside iran as a completely the other way around they argue that the way that the deal was implemented iran had to actually first start by dismantling hundreds and thousands of centrifuges by shipping out ninety seven percent of its stockpile of enriched
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uranium by putting cement in its heavy water reactor before it received a dime of its own money so iranians would have to actually deliver first on their end of the bargain before they would be rewarded with the sanctions relief that was devised in the j c p o a and the president talks about the money that iran received as a result of a legal settlement in the hague as if this money was paid to iran from u.s. taxpayers pockets whereas this was iran's money that was frozen as a result of an aborted agreement from the time of the shah in us bank accounts for purchase of weapons that after thirty odd years was returned to iran and because of us sanctions that were not properly draws back there was no way other than sending it through the iranians by cash so the fact about ok our event was let's discuss
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what the partners of the us particularly the other five countries are negotiating with iran what they think about this and i think probably the strongest reaction came from the e.u. high representative who came out moments later with a point by point rebuttal including this thing that president trump said in the event we are not able to reach a solution working with. and our allies then the agreement will be terminated it is under continuous review and our participation can be cancelled by me as president at any time is clearly not in the hands of any president of any country in the works to terminate an agreement of this sort because this is a un security council resolution this is a plan of action that sets things to be done commitments nuclear related
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commitments and only nuclear related commitments and that is man implemented so the president of united states as many posts not this want to know what does this mean not just for the iran deal but for the us is reputation in doing deals around the world. it doesn't do us any good to be quite honest you know the international community operates on the assumption that it's a government that negotiates and signs and agreements will continue to respect that agreement even if there is a change in governments we've seen this throughout the decades in the twentieth century the twenty first century but what donald trump is doing here not just with the iran nuclear deal but with the paris climate accord and other agreements he is clearly giving you know it's kind of the impression that by negotiating with united states you cannot trust that that agreement that deal will be
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respected in the next administration ali very quickly very down ali ali very quickly of course this is a time when you have now a growing nuclear crisis with iran but also one with north korea two growing emergence. yes and i think the effect of what president trump is doing with the iran deal is that the north koreans would look at the situation and they would say what's the point in dealing with the united states you know you agreed to give away most of your nuclear capabilities in return for sanctions relief that is much less than what has been promised and as soon as the administration changes washington goes back on its word and the size to negotiate another deal so i think the north koreans would have absolutely zero incentive to settle the current standoff with the united states in
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a diplomatic way well thank you very much to our guests three real experts on this subject early virus daryl kimball i'm a staffer thank you two for watching you can find plenty more stories about the iran deal you can even watch this program again if you want on our web site al-jazeera dot com and if you have strong views on today's topic if you join the conversation on our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story alternatively use that twitter where we are at a.j. inside story that's it for me james based on the whole team i'll see you soon bye for now. in the final part of a six part series filmed by. the people are still fighting for their land. the village chief his imprisonment.
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