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tv   Inside Story 2017 Ep 290  Al Jazeera  October 19, 2017 3:32am-4:01am AST

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in the commission's operations a senior commissioner has resigned and fled to the united states saying she fears for her life pressure is mounting on the separatist leader colors demand to reveal if catalonia will split from spain the government has warned it will take the unprecedented step seeking to suspend catalonia as autonomy if the region's leader doesn't abandon his secession bid. iraq's government has admitted that civilians were attacked by men during the military operation to retake kirkuk from the kurds prime minister hyderabadi has ordered the security forces in kirkuk to protect civilians and property. also today while mr about he the iraqi prime minister has received information that some armed men whose affiliations unknown have attacked some civilians of course the prime minister does not accept such violations we also emphasize our commitment to the
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orders of the prime minister to protect the safety and security of all citizens and the governorates without exception the interior ministry will take all measures to stop those who commit such violations. right that's it for now you're up to date there is a latest headlines from us here at al-jazeera coming up next it's inside story. promising economic openness while tightly consolidating political power what will the latest communist party congress reveal about china's global leadership
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aspirations as america turns inward this is inside story. hello there i'm james pays who is the most powerful person in the world many would say the u.s. president donald trump but the international news publication the economist makes a fair case for arguing it's actually china's president xi jinping unlike trump the leader of the world's second largest economy doesn't have to worry about congress the media or for that matter reelection and although china has had in recent years a collective leadership system president xi is feared because of his anti corruption campaign and as amassed more personal power than any of his recent predecessors this is a particularly good time to assess all of this china's ruling party has
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a major meeting every five years and it's happening right now before we start our discussion of long term china watch out as there is beijing correspondent adrian brown reports from the communist party congress. president xi jinping can control a lot of things but he can't influence the weather to the superstitious and many people here are the damp grey start to this congress was perhaps a warning sign. in spite of the weather this was a day of choreographed unity after what has been a tumultuous few years for the party. but there was a stirring welcome for the president. this is as close as the foreign media get to the opaque workings of china's communist party. she reported on his past five years in office saying the party had achieved miracles he also warned serious challenges lay ahead. our
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country is at a strategic point in is development the future is extremely bright but the challenges are also extremely serious all party congress must assert their size and the high and the think of a danger in times of safety his address lasted three and a half hours if nothing else it showed that she now sixty four is healthy healthy enough to rule for another ten to fifteen years insists his supporters at one stage former president jiang zemin appeared to nod off think he was china's top leader twenty five years ago when i reported on the fourteenth party congress as china began to experiment with capitalism the new catch phrase is socialism with chinese characteristics in a new openness and economic anything seems to go anything that is political
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reform twenty five years on the faces behind me have changed but the backdrop remains pretty much the same and the prospect of political reform as remote now as it was then. the congress will now meet in secret for the next seven days after which china's new leaders will be unveiled president xi is assured of a second term and this congress seems set to cement his position as china's top leader for a lot longer. adrian brown out of beijing. the changing faces of the chinese communist party and the ever so slightly aging face of our correspondent adrian brown well let's discuss the issues surrounding the congress with our panel in beijing that we have tangan he's a political and economic affairs analyst joining us on skype from new delhi job in jacob a fellow at the institute of chinese studies and in washington d.c. we have isaac stone fish a senior fellow at the asia society is center on u.s.
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china relations welcome to you wall i'm going to start with you because you are where things have been happening in beijing we heard the chinese leader say that china has entered a new era what will define this era well quite frankly a lot of the kind of things that he listed in is more than three hour intense discourse very solidly delivered quite a lot it's a difference from twitter tweeting other major leader but i mean seriously the things that will define china it's our push how it deals with the belt and road initiative they also have challenges in north korea south and east china seas and how to deal with just the sheer size of their growth internally they have issues that they have to address but i think you saw within the document that
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he read very clear signal as to why he wants his party his comrades to rally around this why sacrifice is needed and why they have to go along with this program. a far skewed job in what we mentioned earlier on the economist saying the president xi is now the most powerful man in the world would you agree with that number one number two explain to us how he has got more power perhaps in the last five years in the chinese political system and some of his predecessors well i think it's not quite as black and white. that calling him the most powerful leader on the planet he certainly has become quite powerful within china but i think. the events surrounding in the run up to the congress as well as. you know the fact that we do not have
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a very clear picture yet of all the top contenders are for the politburo standing committee i think a lot of these things are still you know up in the air. he had certainly become more powerful over the last five years by his very strong anti-corruption campaign he has reigned in the party excesses he has maintained strong control over the military he has somehow gotten the military on his side much more so than any of his biggest afterwards and i think he has done it because he saw it aligned to the ordinary people as the last of the party card or that's the military that he is out to change china make china stronger and his vision of making china stronger has biota especially at a time when the rest of the united states especially does not seem to be stepping up to the plate as far as leadership is concerned so he's able to said to the chinese people that this is an opportunity that i and china must take it. isaac
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stone fish in washington d.c. there are some saying he's emerging as a transformational leader perhaps like chairman mao or done shopping as you know chairman mao established the communist state don't chopping introduced economic reforms that transform china what is he going to be known for i think it's good to insert a bit of hesitancy in skepticism so from what we can see she is becoming a more and more powerful leader but there's just so much we don't know we don't know what his relationship is with other members of the standing committee we think it's quite good but all we have are the tea leaves that we can see from the outside we think he has a good relationship with the men who run the military that's also something we don't know so if we stick with the assumption that we're making and that she is a very powerful leader and transformative in the way that. were some things we
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might be able to expect is a far more assertive push internationally the chinese leaders like to talk about other country is a developing one not a developed one we could actually see under she china going and potentially getting involved in conflicts or peace talks in the middle east we could see a more assertive chinese stance on north korea see more assertive chinese stance on the disputed islands in the south china sea and on border issues of india so in the job they had the five years and then the next congress in ten years that was when they step down do you think president she is going to step down next time around in twenty twenty two. well that's one of the big questions that surround this lot will depend on whether he brings in the next two people from the sixth generation who would be capable of serving a five year apprenticeship on the standing committee and then be able to take over
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obviously the corruption charges against the former party secretary of chongqing has made that clear that he's out of the running question is can you bring up somebody quickly enough that people are going to be comfortable with in terms of himself i think he has a very ambitious agenda i think we all agree on that and he's trying he's trying to push it through will it take ten more years i am not certain but it will be it will be in the cards but one of the things that i think we we're concentrating too much on is we you know this china is a completely different entity this is not something where you start putting your political and economic norms from your own country in the west and trying to insert them in china the fact is china does not do new plans on the back of a napkin as part of a campaign to get power it is a very slow planning process that involves a lot of steps along the way and this is how they achieve
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a lot of what they've done so this idea that you can concentrate solely on what she is doing or who is on the top standing committee i think is misleading i think that the most important part will be the work a report which will indicate in detail what the government is trying to do and what emphasis it's placing on each part i know you're telling me we're focusing too much on the leda i am going to ask another question about that leader to jump in though which is president she's background in what in what way you think it shapes him because he was from an elite family sort of an elite official who van was pushed imprisoned in his youth in his you've sent to a rural area of china working as a farm laborer how do you think that shape says. political outlook look everyone's background is important to how they think about politics and i am sure this experience that she's father went to in the guts of that lucian had also epic
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event shape except that you know. it might not be in quite the way that we think i think one appreciation that she might have is in the part of the state in the power of the communist party to keep things in order or the need for the communist party to keeping that order so i think that extend she does not seem to have any democrat voting tendencies he seems to think that the communist party that the new century old or china is right and you know so from that point of view i think. that experience has taught him that what china needs is a strong hand. and clear direction and somebody has to give that direction and that is what i think is frankly cheap. you talk about anything you talk about his strong hand and one of the things he's done in his five years is
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a widespread crackdown on corruption but he still says in his speech today it's a big problem in the country. what you are trying to corruption is the biggest threat faced by our party we can only get out of the historical cycle until the long term stability of our party and our country if we persevere in the continuous fight against corruption to ensure that our government its officials and policies are clean are six stone fish in washington d.c. he says this continues this fight against corruption does this help him politically to because at one assumes you cracking down on corruption people are somewhat fearful of you. i think it depending on how well he plays it on the one hand corruption is something that's very unpopular in china as a lot of frustration you have among a lot of people local leaders or even national leaders are corrupt or not steering the country in the right direction i think the question is how much anger xi
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jinping builds among members of the party state for you know turning off the spigot and because he's doing this in somewhat of a hypocritical way you know the problem leaders that he takes down are corrupt if we believe the evidence against them which mostly comes from the party just not entirely trustworthy organization and they also all have run afoul of xi jinping so it's not a sort of honest clean hands we're just going after corrupt officials it's going after corrupt officials who for the most part tend to be in some ways in opposition to xi jinping are not talking in. moving from corruption to the while you economy what all the biggest risks facing the chinese leadership over the next five years. well if you're talking internally a lot of it goes around how to manage the economy but once again this is not
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a cookie cutter western democracy the chinese government has direct control over almost everything so what you see is this kind of feeling the stones while crossing the river approach they try something if it works they continue if it doesn't they abandon it and find something new this is not something you can do you know if you look at the west trying to steer its economies through central banks which is kind of trying to you know cut a wheat field with a razor blade versus china who's able to literally say this is where it's going to stop we're going to close down these factories we're going to move them things now you might not like the system but it is a part of the d.n.a. of china that the people here expect the government to deliver some sort of decent living standards and so far china has done that and i think they're going to continue in terms of corruption i'm i'm not so certain that my american colleagues entirely correct if you start looking at the number of officials who have actually
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been taken down some of them received rises under she himself and he has shown that he is has a pretty even hand if he discovers that somebody has broken the rule he told people five years ago that you this is a new start everything that happened the past is the past anything that happens forward is a direct affront to not only the people but to the party and you will be taken down i don't know that i like this idea that we continually sing the song that china should do something about corruption and then when it does we say oh it's only for power reasons. job in i know keeps telling me not to look at china through westernize i am going to ask you to challenge an assumption though for me a westerner and that is that when you get greater wealth education the people will start asking for more freedom freedom of speech democracy and the like do you see any sign of that and is that
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a challenge for president xi and the leadership well if there is a sign of it then it is very much under control that communist party of china has managed to keep it under the lid it's certainly not. a rule significant enough to change the course or the direction that she sent for the communist party of china and i think we just have to accept facts that they are and i would agree with dinah in thinking that you know this is not a country that one can deal with the west western alliance or even from any indian and in fact if i might say it's the i think it be there for us to or you need to understand what's going on in china because some of the problems that we see in china we also based some of the same issues of anti-corruption are also big issues here and we see that difficulty of actually dealing with these problems in a country to say it's safe that china are so i think yes there is a case to be made for. understanding and accepting that there is
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a separate chinese are different chinese only about how they will handle these issues always are the one westerner who is probably graphically most with how to understand china and president xi is president trump they seem to have surprised people earlier on this year mar a lago when they met in april and got on a lot better than we might have predicted from president trump's election campaign how do you see the relationship continuing particularly as president trump in a matter of weeks will be going to beijing. just one point on what my colleague in beijing has said i think a lot of us make a mistake inside china and outside of conflating the communist party and china the country they are not the same thing the party wants to you have this idea of inevitability that china can only be ruled by the communist party obviously that's
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not true thousands of years of history before the communist party and they'll be thousands of years of history after they also have taiwan democratically run which china says is part of china part of the d.n.a. but as a democratic polity so i think you have to be. a rebuttal. to the question should trump relationship going forward and particularly the important visit of the president to asia. so i think what trump has been trying to do is to use north korea as somewhat of an excuse to increase trade tensions with china trump has this very fanciful idea that. a trade deficit is very harmful to the u.s. economy and he wants to rebalance trade between the u.s. and china basically every credible economist doesn't think this is a problem trump does so i think even though he's going there in early november and
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the two leaders got along seemingly pretty well when they met in april i do think trump would like to have excuses to raise trade tensions between the two countries i know there was it seems a deal this very transonic tional u.s. president said i'll put all my concerns about trade on one side if you sought north korea it seems the u.s. administration doesn't feel that it's go and do the bogan. well quite frankly that was not the bargain this is i think a way that donald trump has been trying to train it so that anything that happens that is being pushed is of course the fault of china i think it's perhaps a clever p.r. move but it doesn't reflect reality this situation is that there is a trust deficit between the u.s. and north korea because of what happened in libya and other places where people
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were. despotic leaders quote were defending and then actually killed so in that part of the things i don't know that north korea and the united states can sit down across a table and strike a deal so i don't know that that's necessarily china's fault in terms of the trade issue that is always hard on that china is concerned about a. regime change message leave that something bad happens. and you start having china starts inheriting all the problems remember there won't be many refugees moving from north korea into alaska or anywhere else in the united states if things fall apart so this the these issues are pretty complicated but it's clear that you know you cannot sis say it's one side's fault if there is no talk no trust there will be no resolution ok i know something let me just not i don't just ask you this follow up question how much influence do you believe beijing has of
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a north korea could they change north korea's behavior if they wanted to not really if you think back every time that she jingping has been near an international microphone for some reason this is the perfect time to fire off a missile or explode a nuclear bomb you can just check that and you'll see that that is the case she has is a very controlled person he does not react to donald trump he does not react to kim even though these are open provocations the chinese people are not happy about it chinese government is not happy about it face is an important issue here and young kim seems to delight in making sure he puts she's face in the mud every opportunity ken ok that isn't ok are you shaking your head a bit there very quickly you'll view on bot. i think china as we we all agree is one of the world's most powerful countries and if china were to decide that it wanted to push regime change in north korea or if it wanted to
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get kim to stop with this missile tests it has the ability to do so again massive country north korea has always been in its sphere of interest of influence china just doesn't want to do that because it doesn't want the costs that would be associated with pushing north korea to change but i don't think we want to just blindly swallow the party line that china doesn't have any sway over north korea or that this is an issue just between the united states and north korea china is a very important partner in everything involving north korea job in quickly from you last thoughts on how much is the issue of north korea going to dominate now for the forseeable future us join the relations. well let me take the middle part on this i think china is not without influence under narco and at the same time i think it's not koreans also know just how much to do to stay
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under the red line as far as china stands and i think they're not good in communist party that we congratulate achieve on this but it looks congress. there is a limit to which not korea will go. under and i also don't see at the same time. while all the reasons that that will mention in the beginning that because of the trust deficit between not korea and the united states . that not claudine's will see their provocations the chinese certainly don't want american troops on their border they certainly don't want to not reduce the collapse so i think what myspace might be they're not going to regime survival is just an important national security consideration for the chinese out there and your brain just think jobim thank you very much thank you to all our guests are now turning in job in jacob and isaac stone fish remember if you're not near a television set you can still watch this program any time on a computer tablet or phone at our website out zero dot com for further discussion
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of the issues around china go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story or you can make your thoughts known on twitter we're at a.j. inside story for me on the team until next time bye for now.
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