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tv   Inside Story 2017 Ep 309  Al Jazeera  November 7, 2017 2:32pm-3:01pm AST

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and business entirely with north korea it is unacceptable that nations would help to arm and finance this increasingly dangerous regime as we work together to resolve this problem using all available tools short of military action the united states stands prepared to defend itself and its allies using the full range of our unmatched military capabilities if need be a siege of a t.v. station in the afghan capital has come to an end gunmen stormed the building and took it over after an explosion in kabul a security guard is reported to been killed the station has now resumed broadcasting zimbabwe's president robert mugabe has fired his deputy everson. the decision removes one of the leading contenders to become his successor his wife grace now appears to be the front runner and the supreme court in papua new guinea has rejected an application to restore electricity food and water services to the
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madness island detention center strayer closed the offshore facility last week six hundred refugees and asylum seekers refused to leave saying it's not safe for them to move to new accommodation in the local community one use of the inside story next. donald trumps in asia where one name dominates talks north korea the us president says patience with pyongyang and its missile tests is over what is he able to do and what he perceives to washington's so-called pivot to asia this is inside story .
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and i welcome to the program i'm jane doctrine don't underestimate america donald trump's message as he kicked off his twelve day tour of asia his first as u.s. president trade deals are on the agenda but one subject overtakes all tensions with north korea trump again in japan a meeting with a man he appears to see as a new best buddy prime minister shinzo of a lunch of burgers and a round of golf he addressed u.s. forces at the base near tokyo speaking highly of american dominance and promised his troops an upcoming shipment of arms all this talk about u.s. military superiority is related to the conflict with north korea both trump an obvious say all options are on the table the era of strategic
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patience is over. some people said that my rhetoric is very strong but look what's happened with very weak rhetoric over the last. twenty five years look where we are right now. there is no point in dialogue for the sake of dialogue with north korea now is the time not for dialogue but for applying maximum pressure on north korea we completely agreed that for north korea to change its policy japan and the us must take leadership i think closely collaborating with the international community so that we can enhance the pressure over north korea through all possible means which i'm going to have as big talk on north korea could pose problems at the u.s. president's next stop south korea charms war of words with north korea has produced a lot of fear in seoul south korean president moon j.n. said this week no military action should be taken without his consent china is also
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wrapped up in the north korea conflict trump and president xi jinping will have talks trump telling china previously it wasn't doing enough to help in vietnam north korea might take a back seat trumps expected to talk about a free and open indo-pacific region an asia pacific economic cooperation or apec meeting and then is off to the philippines and a meeting with president rodrigo to ted while they talk trade military bases or the war on drugs this is chance longest foreign trip yet his previous says a barack obama also spends a lot of time in the region as part of his so-called pivot to asia is trying planning to continue on that path well let's now bring in our guests joining us in beijing and our tangan political analyst and advisor to the chinese government in singapore james dorsey senior fellow at the s. rajaratnam school of international studies and in boston catherine moon professor
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of asian studies at wellesley college a very warm welcome to all three of you n. our tangan this is a massive trip for a man who says he doesn't like to take long trips away from home what sort of statement is it and to whom. well there's a number of statements first off he's happy to be out of washington d.c. especially with things unfolding as they have been with his aides and other people within his cabinet there have been a number of blockbuster revelations but in terms of this trip he is trying to deliver trying to get since read some energy into his kind of moribund lack of ability to get things done in d.c. by in essence delivering some red meat to the political base that he treasures he wants to come to asia he wants them to know that he's there to make deals that he will use his strategic advantage security as
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a blunt instrument in order to get what he wants which are trade concessions said catherine maine a probably delighted to be on the on the plane has raised by an hour but what do you think he's going to find then what's the message we know at this stage that the t p p in the pivot out question is what's in. well mr trump does not have a big vision or a grand strategy for east asia so he's focusing on specific deals primarily i think if we look at his success in japan it says something he has had he has been able to get the japanese government to agree to military sales from the united states so that's good for u.s. military companies and also he got the japanese government to agree to impose unilateral sanctions on north korea so on two of things that he cares
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about trade as well as north korea he has one in japan are ready what is interesting is that the next stops south korea china will not go as smoothly as it has in japan there are many more contentious issues and south korea in particular is very wary of mr trump's. rhetoric in the recent months and his belittling of the south korean president mr moon in by calling him an appeaser relative visa v. into korean relations south korea's relations with north korea so he has still a long long way to travel in asia and then of course he will round out his trip with his new buddy mr du tear today in the philippines so he's starting out with a good friend and he wants to end on a good note in a country where someone who basically is like
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a fog is running the country so interesting book and james dorsey what do you make of this trip the duration and the ultimate aim here. i would argue that i would agree with the previous biggest but i would argue that there is both the domestic message as my colleague in boston described but there's also an agent message it is a message of support in our lives to u.s. allies in the region it's a message to north korea. i think the issues here are that we're dealing with different donald trump's if you wish there's a donald trump who is bombastic if you speak who is personal in terms of his criticisms of others and his taps but there's also donald trump who despite what he says allows his cabinet ministers but barely secretaries of defense. and states to pursue policies that are less aggressive ok picking up on that point
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about allowing people to pursue policies and allowing the military to take decisions into their own hands we had that the pentagon released a statement a not that a full scale ground invasion is the only way to end the arsenal launches coming from north korea i mean is that what the region is preparing for have you been told about that. well i don't think that is a realistic things what you're talking about logistically would be very very difficult if you go back to desert storm and you see how long it took to mount an offensive a full scale invasion the number of troops the backup support the tanks everything involved this is not something you're going to do over a fortnight not even a month this would take months if not six months to try to put together i think this is just part of this kind of badminton game that good trump is playing with
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the other trump saying that you know on one hand i'm i'm reasonable i'll listen to madison and less i fire him and on the other hand i'm willing to do whatever it takes he's ratcheted up at a wreck and by doing so increase the tensions and he's using that as a leverage point in order and what i think is religion is and i deal with my colleague agree with my colleague in boston that this is simply a way of getting trade concessions which he can then take back to the people of the united states and see here i am the great deal maker because catherine if they went to be an attack on north korea then the victims would be japan and south korea. absolutely and south korea's president in has made it clear on several occasions publicly that the u.s. cannot and must not commit any kind of military intervention on the peninsula
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without the consent of the south korean people now one could say that that's just a rhetorical demand but nevertheless it is the south koreans who will face the brunt of any kind of military intervention i just want to add this that i find it interesting one of our speakers said that there are multiple traumas or at least two tribes and indeed in japan mr trump met with japanese families of abductees people who were taken by north korea in the seventy's and eighty's and have not been able to. rejoin their families in japan and some of them may have indeed died in north korea so when he met with the families of the abductees he included this statement which is really interesting he said that it would be a tremendous signal and i'm reading here his words if north korea would send them
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back. and that would be the quote start of something very very special typical trump language but again and an expected possible olive branch and the only problem is with mr trump that even if he says something that is non escuela tory any day any moment he could send a twitter storm out raising that rhetoric or raising the raising the bar so we don't know how stable. and predictable his words can be and i'm afraid that asian nations actually read him the same way james i'm wondering how his tweets play out in your studies and then when it comes to putting policy together in the sort of conversations that all these leaders are having ahead of trump's visit and sitting down talking to them well i think there are several things here one is his i'm fifty below and that's something that he wants i think that part of
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his him predictability is by just sorry and part of this is is by clever what i also think is that donald trump does not want to be engaged in a major ground war a third war after iraq and now alongside of us that what i think we're seeing is a strategy in which he is blistering and threatening and aggressive and that's a strategy that so far has failed to impress the north koreans nor it as worried some of its allies it has really oppressed the chinese to the best of my knowledge but at the same time let's face it yes a lot of this is about trade but. the united states is a pacific power it does have interests in the region a nuclear north korea is an issue with us to come to grips with. lysis mission is that what he's trying to do is ratcheting up sanctions in
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a way that that over whatever period of time he can force north korea on its nice whether that succeeds or not they have second issue and at the same time he is preparing for a military option but that's the least favorite option what are the conversation be and when he goes over to china will we see a push for more sanctions i mean there's talk about targeting countries that sell north korea's weapons which bring in a large amount of money to north korea i mean is that the sort of conversation that will be pushed as opposed to military confrontation possibly. well quite frankly it's very difficult to see whether you're going to get jekyll or hyde when he arrives in beijing i think a lot of it from the chinese perspective is going to be welcoming him in giving him the big kind of grandiose welcome and affecting him great length and this goes
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a long way towards getting into dunk trumps good books what he does from there very unknown he's left his china hawks at home but he's still there still very vocal in what they're saying bannon is on the sidelines saying screaming that china is the enemy and they need to be dealt with meanwhile he's it's just very unclear which side of his cabinet he's with at any particular time as catherine said in boston in one one moment he's you know saying something conciliatory for instance he said i'd be willing to meet with anybody that would be a good start and then at the next moment he's saying that they have to be dealt with a little rocket man all this kind of stuff maybe we should do it with castro then maybe you got some thoughts on this the in-depth pacific policy that they talking about what is this policy is it a strategy what should we envision when they talk about that. that's a very good question because this has come out of fin air as far as it coming from
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the white house in truth the united states does not i repeat does not have an extract of g.e. the whole notion came from the japanese so it is a japanese idea and they have been studying this for quite some time it is a idea to get a consortium of democracies in east asia going as a way to contain china so primarily consisting of japan australia india the united states and this is not for example of a replacement or a sarah gift for t.p. p. which some people think it could be i absolutely would disagree with that there is not much content there i do want to add something about trump's visit to china that is upcoming what is interesting is that everybody is pretty sure he will not pick on the south china seas issue with the chinese and it is not an issue he particularly cares about at least in public but the fact that he's going to vietnam
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and not only for the apec meeting but also we'll go have a bilateral with the president of vietnam in one noise which is symbolic i think that is a way to to give assurance to southeast asians to the ozzie and members of the u.s. understands their concern about china even if they're very friendly with china on trade issues and that freedom of navigation of that south china seas is something that is very important on the u.s. says foreign policy agenda for east asia so in that sense i think it is a smart move not to raise it in terms of temperature but to at least show up where the countries care about freedom of navigation james it's a it's a real balancing act isn't it. pursuing a policy that basically pushes china away donald trump needs china they both need
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each other but we've got cheesy and paying on a high now after election victories in that country we've got a high i want a way this leaves donald trump's leverage and he's negotiating power with all of these nations but i think that's absolutely true i mean in a sense i think what we're dealing with is a donald trump who for whom the concept of america's role in the world still revolting i think the concept that he had when he was on the campaign trail and what he is already entered the will of the oval office and the concept of. a horse in chains since you have to be ok a lot this is still a process in motion and that part of this trip is in many ways going to go to find that i think it's absolutely true that he doesn't have a strategy and that reduces his leverage is very much someone who has issues oriented very much someone who sensitive ones because said earlier of how we have
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speeches and if he is treated with the proper respect and with the proper recognition then he is more amenable so i think a lot of that is the going to play out in beijing but i also think that one of the things that trouble is real engineers the united states has dziedzic interests in asia whether it's trade whether it's security. whether it's america's place in the world all of those things come together in asia and so trump has to come to grips with asia where they were that wants to or not and i know that i guess it's important at this time when. jip politically the u.s. has been weakened i mean look at them pulling out of the middle east for example so many areas where they have lost dominance is this a region an area that they can still claim
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a strong footprint and that's a real question a lot of it will depend on these kind of how much heat they're able to generate among us in our nations about freedom of navigation now i believe that this is spirit spurious china has absolute interest in maintaining clear seaways two point three trillion in trade and also they have to import their resources so i think this is rather fallacious the the issue here is what is the u.s. offering me right now donald trump has gotten concessions from japan he's going to be looking for concessions from south korea but what is he putting on the table other than quote i'm your security blanket so this is why i said earlier he's using security as a blunt instrument to get what he wants in terms of trade i don't think that this is a long term alternative when you start creating uncertainty this is the anathema of
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both business and diplomacy you cannot formulate policies if you don't know what the other side is doing so i think in the end this backfires for him and catherine it seems that there is a delicate balance that works in that region so empowering somebody like there for example with the promise of of of more troops in the region a suggestion that he possibly will buy military hardware from the u.s. change the the constitution how much of a concern is all of that in this changing dynamic. well i think we have to give the asian leaders more credit then trump may be willing to because as much as mr abbay and others put on a good show for trump's visit they are of course they want to have good relations and stronger relations with the united states but it's for their own national
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interest it has nothing to do with making trump happy as a same time what's interesting right now is because the asians are wary of the general u.s. commitment to asia under trump japan and india are throwing around the idea of a military alliance which would be allied against china that would be a major game changer in the region at the same time japan and china are actively in recent weeks improving their relationship and making it very explicitly public so that's a good thing but they are they're basically playing multiple games and then of course south korea and china on the eve of mr trump's visit to asia made friends they reconciled on the issue of fad the u.s. missile defense system that is in placed in korea which the chinese were very very
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adamantly opposed to now the chinese and south koreans have come to terms and they are getting back on track in terms of a good relationship so the asian countries are maneuvering to basically make sure they have plan b. plan c. in case the u.s. is not a reliable partner if i may add there's also the reality that this trip is in a way of a bit of a waste specially of the u.s. taxpayer money and of opportunities because i think we need to think about the issues that will not be raised for example the fact that south koreans want to develop their own domestic. nuclear arsenal which would be a major slap in the face against u.s. nonproliferation effort and increase an arms race in east asia the fact that japan with mr abbate triumphant reelection recently wants to change the peace
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constitution that would be a serious changing of the post world war two security arrangements and assumptions an east asia and there are other issues like that which i know that mr trump is not only unwilling to raise but frankly i don't think he is capable of addressing these very complex issues james i'm wondering what would be considered a success after this trip for the u.s. administration and for all the countries involved what would they be looking for i mean has it given an idea world if scrum would get what he wants to make though it would be of course stronger consensus if it were actually rather than just were. on both korea and it would be what he calls they were aggressive vote for a grill exams i don't think he's going to get that. but that would be the ideal outcome for him so it really depends to what degree he gets at least some movement
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in that direction i don't think that the situation is simply security for trade i think that there is a sincere interest in the security of u.s. allies in the region but i think you're at the same time is and will be demanding that the un what he views is something straight terms be revised and we've seen no indication of that yet we've seen some lipservice in japan. well i don't three of you thank you very much for wrapping up that talk for us and james dorsey and catherine moon good to chat to you and thank you very much for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com for further discussion go to our facebook page you can find that at facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a.j. inside story mine is jane ducking and for me in the race the team i sort of i.
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