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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 13  Al Jazeera  January 14, 2018 2:32pm-3:01pm +03

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console poor families suffering from tax increases and price hikes after days of recent protests. the iranian oil tanker that's been burning in the east china sea since last week is said to have sunk in the latest footage broadcast by chinese c.t.v. the ship is barely visible above the water here waiting officials say there is no hope that any of the twenty nine missing crew will be found alive efforts are underway to recover a plane which skidded off the runway at an airport in turkey. incredibly there were no serious injuries among the one hundred sixty two passengers onboard different guises airlines flight avoiding seven three seven jet came within meters of the shoreline in crowds on in the northeast the airport has been closed while authorities try to work out what caused the accident and how why is governor has apologized for an accidental message sent to residents warning them of an imminent missile strike the alert triggered panic among many a why and to scramble to find shelter the emergency management agency later
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confirmed it was a false alarm those are the headlines on al-jazeera the news continues here right after inside story just stay with us. donald trump extends the iran nuclear agreement but towards the u.s. will withdraw if changes are not made but can this deal between negotiators and why is trump adamantly against it this is inside story.
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i don't know that and welcome to the program i'm laura kyle this is a last chance that is the message u.s. president donald trump has sent out of the extending sanctions relief to iran as aggressively warned european allies he would withdraw from the two thousand and fifteen nuclear agreement altogether if it's amman's to change it and not met trump has publicly branded the deal before and during his presidency as the worst ever well iran says an announcement is a desperate attempt to undermine a solid multilateral agreement that is not where negotiable in the middle of all this all european leaders who have essentially said to trump either back the deal or come up with a better one we'll get to our guests in just a moment but first they must ravi spoke to people on the streets of tehran and sent this report. nearly two and a half years after the nuclear deal was signed many iranians say they haven't seen any real benefits and the president hassan rouhani promised more than he could
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deliver to jordan bunkhouses nagesh that then you could house the martinique no impact at all of my life for the price of rice has doubled expensive to millions and around meanwhile the children of official see that the people don't exist money goes my pockets out of the pocket of the woman selling things on the street which people but some are still willing to stand by their president coming as an intelligent woman is doing his best of course there are some problems in the country son. since pressure from abroad naturally impacts livelihoods and the economic situation but if we just blame the president and say he is the one who has to do something of course he cannot we should stand next to him cooperate with him and tolerate the situation the nuclear deal had some success the lifting of sanctions let iran sell oil again freely on the international market exports are up to more than two million barrels a day but gains have been overshadowed by u.s.
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president donald trump's aggressive stance towards iran every few months the iranian nuclear deal was thrown into chaos and managing that political turmoil takes up so much of the iranian government's time that there isn't a lot of room left for public discourse about much else trump has created so much uncertainty about the nuclear deal that iranians say it's been as harmful as sanctions that the deal was meant to lift many people are frustrated that foreign investors are too scared to come to iran and the value of their currency keeps falling. trump is a person who has a psychological problem his opinions have no balance on any issue is always changing his mind and for me as an iranian and for most iranians it doesn't matter if the us pulls out of the deal as long as european countries cooperate with us we will stay in the deal oh oh oh oh summer audience don't care about the nuclear deal and say they simply want to get on with their lives their money never had to live on the show i just want to make people happy that's said and i don't care about
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anything else making people happy is a kind of arts and i'm not interested in these kinds of nuclear conversations. oh. oh oh iran's government says it's ready to deal with any scenario so too it seems are its people. want to take a closer look at the iran deal it's a landmark agreement signed between tehran and six global powers the u.s. u.k. germany france russia and china iran agreed to reduce its enrichment of uranium eliminate enriched uranium stockpiles and modify our water facilities so it can produce material suitable for a nuclear bomb in return decades of international and u.s. sanctions have been suspended and the u.s. president has to sign a waiver every one hundred twenty days to keep suspending the american side of
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those sanctions trump is now demanding the deal include other weapons programs and tougher sanctions he also wants to remove a clause that allows iran to enrich uranium after the year twenty twenty five well turning to our guests now and joining us from tehran sayat mustafa a political commentator and specialist on iran in domestic affairs in london ellie jeremiah a policy fellow with the european council on foreign relations and offer of the book in gauging with iran a european agenda and in washington d.c. alley vias a senior iran analyst with the international crisis group are welcome to all of you and let me start with you because trump has thrown the ball now to europe how is europe going to keep this still alive. well the european part is this deal several days ago had a very important meeting in brussels where they came out with a unified message that they are going to remain committed to this deal and that
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importantly so long as iran carries on its part of the bargain they will do their best to deliver on the deal as it was envisioned or originally now i think everyone in europe understands and acknowledges it's going to be very difficult to keep the deal going if the united states backtracks so their effort for the next four months which is this deadline that their closest ally in the u.s. has issued to them their main efforts are going to be to keep the u.s. administration on board with the deal and find some sort of a solution that accommodates both iran's needs and the u.s. needs but if need be there you need to also consider contingency plans to keep this still together absent the united states just to clear the games for the next hundred twenty days trying to keep the u.s. on side rather than as trump forms renegotiating the deal with iran. well the europeans made very clear in brussels and they have been consistently
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making it clear to the u.s. president since october when he decertified the nuclear deal that this deal is not up for negotiation there has been a possible space and suggestion given to doing some side agreements with iran that addressed some of those areas where president trump seems to be most fixated on it which is missiles programs and the issue of social so-called sunset cruises but before the europeans can even consider that they need the full commitment of the u.s. to this nuclear agreement i think their priority for now will be to keep the u.s. on board but at the same time and in parallel they should be looking at contingency plans whereby they can all figure on a piece for plus one deal that keeps the obligations in place of both sides ok it will look at the people plus one i did just a little later in the program first i want to go over to ali see how difficult it's going to be to keep from all sides in the deal with the europeans as it stands i
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mean how close was he to walking away from it. look i think the administration has in fact committed a mistake by coming out with a set of maximalist demands to impose on the europeans and others in a very short period of time in hundred twenty days remember this deal took more than thirteen years of a nuclear standoff and two and a half years of very intense negotiations to arrive at a very delicately balanced agreement and now the president wants to basically impose a set of maximalist demands on everybody else and interestingly dring the past two months that some of these measures and provisions that the president has in mind were being debated in congress both the europeans and the democrats in congress had made it clear to the administration that these measures like extending some of the
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restrictions on iran's nuclear program for ever or. tying the myside ballistic missile program of iran to the nuclear issue are nonstarters and these are considered violations of the g.c. if you a so i think there is no chance whatsoever that there would be progress by the next deadline on may twelfth so say it is is a run at all interested in finding a way of keeping trump of keeping the u.s. in this deal. known iran has been complying you know with all its undertakings ever since the deal was a struck. this has been the united states the been defying it's on the taking ever since it started i mean at a time of obama he didn't stand up to the changes in the visa waiver program also he never stood up to the congress when the you know reimpose the iran sanctions act
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so iran has been in full compliance with its undertakings but it is not received anything in the meantime there are many in tehran who even before saw trumps all to meet him in january since last summer they knew that trump would go forward this way because this is trumps a strategy but there is nothing in that for trump to drop the deal you know when iran has been in full compliance the united states you know that has not lost anything at least it has removed you know some parts of the sanctions and painter but not in action and they don't have any replacement if they are really honest about iran's true intentions for developing a nuclear program they don't have any replacement for this deal in the meantime bream posing the old sanctions would not bring anything to donald trump but global condemnation because right now they have already in force a second generation of
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a smarter sanctions against iran and they are already working on version two and a half so focusing on the first generation would not do them much you know and it would not bring donald trump any more credit so basically there are many people here who do not see this thread very alive in you know creditable ok early as does that is that the view this echoed in europe that it will not do any good for the u.s. to back off by the to the u.s. to rotten to the rest of the world. certainly i think the europeans see this deal as really for the benefit of global security and regional security in the middle east and so they have repeatedly made that position clear and also said as the u.k. foreign minister said recently that those who have been opposed to it have no better alternative to put on the table now from the european side they are very
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concerned about what the u.s. president does because if the u.s. were to actually go all the way and terminate the deal and snap back the sanctions that would have a huge impact on the ability of european companies as things currently stand to do what is illegitimate within the e.u. laws to do business with iran and so it does have a big impact on europe ok that was going to be my next question if the u.s. does pull out europe stay the course i mean you know can we not keep going without the u.s. the u.s. is isolating itself called rest of the world cario. certainly since president trumps even election back in november twenty sixth. given his position on the deal there has been work quietly happening behind the scenes of you know why or what are europe's options really if the u.s. does terminate its obligations under the nuclear agreement there are some thoughts put in place organizations like myself and i said you are levi's works would be
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looking at different types of mechanisms whereby europe can have a contingency plan and that would really be based on giving iran an economic package together with russia and china the other six parties to this nuclear agreement whereby there can be some sort of economic benefit given to iran absent the united states not for that to work the heart of this debate will really fall on whether the european governments can forcefully and effectively ring fence and protect their companies from the informal foresman of u.s. secondary sanctions and that's where the debate is going to fall ok well just to throw back to iran for a moment what does tehran think of that contingency plan is that a discussion that's going on in government circles right now. well you know of as regards to iran tehran has you know stress that it would not call for extending the deal after the sunset clauses in the after its expiration it would
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not also discuss its missile and regional powers that was a very correct point of my call it was making in europe europeans have so far shown political support for this the but that's not enough although it was necessary when the time arrives if arrives when the u.s. re imposes sanctions or you know of forces europeans to you know comply with the cats or sanctions then iran is waiting to see if europeans would protect these companies in the early transactions with iran so practical steps are needed to be taken by europeans to protect their companies and that's exactly are you know the yardstick in this standard and the real action that iran is waiting to see to decide about the future of the deal if not iran would surely you know drop out of the deal because that would mean the europe the european companies and
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countries would you know comply with the second through sanctions of the united states and the deal is gone ok if they take action sure iran would go along with the europeans. two points that side mention the ballistic missiles program and the sunset clause which allows iran to return to enriching uranium in twenty twenty five these are the two points on that trump is particularly upset about them he calls it makes them call it the west deal ever but is he alone in the u.s. administration and thinking this or how much of the white house supports him in this. no he's not alone there are a lot of concerns about iran's ballistic missile program even in europe and even some democrats who voted for the nuclear deal are concerned about the outer years of the end of the agreement when some of the restrictions start fading away but you know if the object of was to written renegotiate or negotiate
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a supplemental or agreement that would come into force after the g.c. if you expires then the administration should have adopted the completely different strategy it should of implemented this agreement in good faith and work with its allies to try to come up to with a with a follow on agreement the problem is this is ministration turned every milestone in implementation of the j c p o a into an uncertainty generator which has really a an a to the europeans and totally evaporated any amount of trust that was built during the nuclear negotiations with the iranians and if you look at its approach at the moment is not really talking about another multilateral negotiation with the iranians the russians the chinese and the europeans is talking about congress changing u.s. domestic law to basically unilaterally alter a multilateral agreement which really amounts to a violation of the d.c.p. way and the president is basically telling the rest of the world you either join me
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in violating the steel or i will do it alone and i think under these circumstances the europeans and the iranians have much more to lose if the deal falls apart than to try to salvage whatever the deal remains if the u.s. withdraws from it and and try to wait until cooler heads prevail in washington just what will five thought it why does the u.s. have this sanctions way that must be signed if we one hundred twenty days i mean it really does make the deal vulnerable. look these are sanctions that were put in place by congress and because most of these were enacted when a democratic president was in office the republican dominated congress didn't trust that the president would be tough enough on iran and wanted to have a regular way of monitoring and supervising the enforcement of sanctions and
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making sure that the president doesn't give too much today ronny and no one i think imagine that we would be in a situation that there is a president in the white house who can't be trusted by the rest of the world and one of the things that congress considered was to actually reduce this burden of very regular frequent. certification of the nuclear deal by the trumpet ministration but again the problem is the administration has put the bar so high that it's almost impossible to be reached ok any of what are we hearing from other partners china and russia about this. well the russians have been quite vocal in the often off of president from statement to say that these were deeply unhelpful china has been relatively quiet in recent weeks but it has also publicly
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and privately made its position clear that it supports the needs here with green meant and continued implementation on both sides and you know it will be very important for europe to try an activity walk with russia and china despite all the problems that it has with both of these countries to try and find a way to salvage this deal and also keep the united states on board said let's just take a brief look at these protests that have been going on recently in iran because they have affected people's perceptions of the country and its current climate people have paid are angry that because they haven't seen the sons of living increase despite a number of years now of silence and being lifted people on the streets and not feeling their lives improve iran as we heard in the package is now able to sell two million barrels of oil a day so where is that money going. well unfortunately when i see the unit as this has been defined you know it's on the taking sound of the one part
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pertaining to the same fact that iran could sell oil but still this way if there's a work and iran can you know bring back the money to iran to home and they are going for swapping currency deals as well as barter trade and many other ways to bypass these sanctions and the u.s. doesn't allow even two foreign embassies like the south korean embassy to use the banking ties in order to you know budget there in operations in iran and that's a major problem people now have come to realize that the u.s. is not an honest you know actor in the deal and that's why many are opposing i mean the public opinion as well as politicians in here in here from across the camps they are they believe that iran should know more of course will go for any other deal with the west because the results are already clear that's why even
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if i have to mend my answer to the first you know to the last question that even if europeans protect their companies and remain committed to deal or way from the united states if they drop the deal i mean in washington iran would go on with the europeans but there might be some changes to small changes in iran has four options available on their side cases and it's not yet clear which option it would take what mrs there if the foreign minister is already stated is that would not abrogate the deal but it might you know choose from the other three options that it has like you know modifying some of the it's on the takings on their video all this is the result of the change in the public opinion two wars deal. as with the united states and the behavior of the united states because we're short of time but let me explain this a little bit in an outside iran the thought that the united states is trying to you
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know go for talks in order to resolve the differences with iran but now they have come to realize that the united states has not been after resolving differences it's only been trying to contain iran's components of power so they have come to realize this much better and there are true there are some protests about economy been riots are completely different we are short of time i cannot explain about that i know ok i know but is can we get a good sense of the situation there in tehran and the idea of how iranians think towards this and towards the u.s. and wondering whether there is a common ground here that can be found between trump which has allies as very maximalist and tehran is there a deal it has asked five both sides here. well i think here the european position becomes more critical than never in trying to bridge these growing tensions between washington and teheran i think that if twenty seventeen was the year where
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europeans spent trying to figure out if president trump is on board and if the deal sustains itself in its current fashion twenty eighteen has to be about europeans proactively fixing some of the problems to do with the current implementation of the deal and that includes opening up some of the channels for economic ing gaijin with iran that should exist as envisaged by the nuclear deal but hasn't been able to be forthcoming and part of that is really the banking and financial sector connections that is very critical for iran to meet its goals for job creation for for a foreign investment that will be critical to some of president rouhani economic policies and europe with his economic market can have a big role to play in that and at the same time do you think that the europeans and president emanuel mark one of france has made this very clear will also be looking to very robustly engage in or it will go on on other issues about song concern ok
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in the region just in the last minute that we have four months from now do you think we're going to see trump again threatening to kill this deal look this president of there is one thing that is certain about him is that he's totally unpredictable but i really think the administration's logic here doesn't work because it's priority is to prevent iran from developing a nuclear weapon it is myths that there is a nuclear deal in place that has put a lid on iran's nuclear program and iran is fully committed to its obligations under the deal and is still doing everything in its power to undermine that agreement ok very interesting indeed to hear from all of you thanks very much to side mustafa ellie. and thank you to you for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting a website that's al-jazeera dot com and facebook page that's facebook dot com for slash a.j. inside story it was a join the conversation on twitter at a.j.
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