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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 27  Al Jazeera  January 28, 2018 10:32am-11:00am +03

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at least ninety five people were killed more than one hundred ninety others injured when the bomber detonated explosives that were inside an ambulance. syrian activists are accusing the government of violating a cease fire in the east and up the syrian observatory for human rights says that air strikes killed three people on saturday a day early as syria's opposition confirmed that it had received an offer from russia of a cease fire deal the area is the last remaining rebel stronghold near the capital damascus police in russia raided the moscow office of opposition leader alexina valmy the head of nationwide anti-government protests the valley called for demonstrations after he was barred from running in march his presidential election his canvas candidacy was rejected last month over his conviction for financial crime which he says is politically motivated seven survivors of a missing ferry have been found drifting at sea for days after that boat sank near the pacific island nation of killer they were found in a lifeboat by the new zealand air force are those the
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headlines we'll have more news fear on al jazeera after inside story next. this is really an attack on itself is a lot of misunderstanding of what free speech is supposed to be about the context it hugely important setting the stage for a serious debate up front at this time on al-jazeera. and donald trump says america first is not mean america alone interests business leaders at the world economic forum in davos but can a man who's promoted protectionist policies and scrap trade deals convince the world the u.s. is open for business this is inside story. hello
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and welcome to the program i'm richelle carey america first has long been one of the most common refrains of donald trump's administration yes president first used the phrase in his inauguration speech and he's repeated it over the past year in reference to political and economic policies so it's no surprise that the phrase resurfaced in a speech at the world economic forum in davos on friday but this time with the caviar of america for us does not mean america alone when the united states grows so does the world american prosperity has created countless jobs all around the globe we cannot have free and open trade if some countries exploit the system at the expense of others. we support free trade but it needs to be fair and it needs to be reciprocal president trump insists many of the trade deals the u.s.
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has signed over the past decades are not reciprocal any plans to end that trend early in his presidency trump refused to back the transpacific partnership a trade deal negotiated by barack obama with the levin under other countries in latin america in east asia the other t.v. countries went ahead with the deal without the u.s. trust mentioned in his davos speech that he may consider rejoining as president has also threatened to withdraw from the north american free trade agreement or nafta and last week trying to impose new steep tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines china which makes many of those products has criticized that decision let's bring in our guests now joining us in suffolk in the u.k. is and had a fourth director of the u.k. based think tank prime economics which focuses on policy research and macro economics in beijing michelle garage the head of the china economic policy research program with nottingham university and answer mark for ha economics analyst and
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assistant professor at the doha institute for graduate studies and welcome to all of you mark i want to start with you because i understand that you have just returned from davos so how would you say. u.s. president donald trump speech was received there. well i think it was received more positively than expected anticipated initially of course there's a lot of antipathy towards donald trump among some of the quote unquote economic elites of this world and liberal elites but on the other hand the economy in the u.s. and of tax cuts have been a boost to the economy and so the economic you know sort of balance sheet right now looks pretty good for report card comes pretty good for donald trump and he has thus won some favor in fact despite some you know reservations towards him as a personality here is it a bit soon though to know for sure what the impact of the tax cuts is going to be
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well i think it's down from himself said in fact the impact has already been seen because people have already figured in the valuations of companies etc that these tax cuts will be a boost to earnings and we were seeing now in fact is a sort of a bubble a big fat ugly bubble is down from said about tom tom a ministration stock market it's gotten even bigger right now and it remains to be seen whether this is sustainable growth or whether in fact there might be some sort of a crash in the offing because it is inflated right now despite all the hype ok so saying question to you michelle what did you care about how donald trump was or how his speech was received it up as compared to expectations. comparator expectation. i think of there was no way the novelty was twofold one is that he's continuing to do and try to do what he said during the electoral campaign listeria was promising to do so in a way it's
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a rare situation around the world where we have a political leader that anyway sticks to what he said during campaign whether we like it or not that's quite unusual clearly here the message was implicitly directed at china because trumper change it a little bit to the rhetoric of ease approach he said that we are open to trade the we the any partner america first of course about we are part of the world unless the someone is not going to work according to fair and equal rules and the reciprocity and of course it is it's a message that is directed to china and other countries that he may perceive or do things we maybe exchange rate with labor laws situations salaries and so on and in a way damping although the word dumping was not specifically mentioned trump wants
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equal trade on fair terms on reciprocal terms with the rest of the world or increasingly these is going to be a sore point in the u.s. china relationship that we can address later on but this is just if you can listen if you are to say you are right i react we will here in beijing you are right we will come back to talk about china more and just a moment first i want to bring an end to the conversation so and when donald trump says america first it sounds like a great campaign slogan how what does america first actually mean policy wise has he truly articulated that. well yes i think. this is as your other contributors just said he has to. he does say what he means and he has done what he meant to do in other words he is promoting protectionism you know it extends from building a wall in mexico to blocking or raising tariffs on washing machines and sort of
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panels from south korea and so on so in that sense he he's not moved from his agenda but what he's in my view not saying is that actually america has a massive current account and trade deficit and is really really dependent on some of those billionaires moving their funds into the u.s. so. you know america first here is an assumption that america can go to learn but it can't actually you know it is heavily dependent on the rest of the world for the rest of the world savings in order to enable americans to carry on consuming in a way that they do and in fact when you say protectionism. an analyst with sandy say specifically says that he's this is a quote i think in two thousand and eighteen one of the biggest risks we face is the trump of ministration moving from rhetoric into real policy
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a real protectionist policy saying that he thinks it's a risk and a bad thing mark what are your thoughts on that. yes it's all true but of course the u.s. is still the preeminent economy and as we saw in davos as well when trump met with european executives they're still very intent on investing in the united states especially of course of these tax cuts now so it's not quite back clear that it will you know just be a return to mercantile ism or to protectionism pure and simple and of course that's a global trend to some degree as well as this whole trying to sort of safeguard borders central but because by dint of the us being such a powerful important economy most states are our companies will not be able to sort of easily say no to the u.s. that having been said the dollar has suffered a lot even this week we saw that again and even before trump in fact people have been pulling out some of the money out of u.s. treasuries some of the states have so that is a whole different part of the equation as well what's the future of the dollar and
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you know the dollar policy of united states as well as stephen and she indicated and then trump refuted subsequently and i think that's a big issue as well actually that it that is a good point how important is messaging. is been very unpredictable about a lot of his policies right he'll say one thing one day he'll tweet something another day someone in his cabinet says something another day how important is his messaging when it comes to trying to renegotiate any of these deals and i actually i would like mark i'll start with you and i want the others to join in on that as well well i think if you read the art of the deal you see this is always a strategy of trump to be ambiguous in his dealings with the other party to say one thing and one day and another thing the next day to threaten somebody and then to pull back and we said how is that are those shading tactic how i can you negotiate with someone that if you don't think of doing so in good faith. well i mean that's
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that's his strategy right he says and the art of the deal he did that with the chinese to he threatens them one day and then he pulls back the next day and tries to exact concessions by antagonizing the other party in the first instance and then relenting in the second i mean that's a strategy and sometimes it works sometimes it might be dangerous in political situations but you know it remains to be seen where it goes but he has a lot of trump card so to speak in his hand still despite the u.s. and using market share and the company you had to say trump card somebody was going to have to say chop car today so it got to be you mark michel so i would like your thoughts as well the fact that this is been one of the criticisms of donald trump's foreign policy he'll say one thing a sector a state says something else when it comes to to particularly economic policy how is important how important is that rather for the messaging to be consistent for other countries to know where the u.s. stands what they mean what it is they want. well there is
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been some changes over a three but i think the from the main goal and underlying principle of drums policy really hasn't changed maybe we analysts the media have reported in the front ways or but when the you hear him directly from he's mouth as we did today in and hours his message has been clear and in a way that there is a consistent a tramp is not a protectionist we do tend to say our trump is a protection but he's not a he is a protecting some subsectors of the u.s. economy isn't an economy and only for a limited period of time so he's a you know way i would call it a i would call him a target protectionists of certain sectors of certain segments of the economy now the different thing between being protectionist and not in even the
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ideologically is that the people who believe in free markets they tend to believe in free market full stop are always at any cost people who maintain to be believing in the protections they never say we close our door entirely we never sell anything we never buy anything from other countries they always mean i think that's not what most people think we do selected protection easement so we are here in a bit of an imbalance a liberal means open one hundred percent protection is never means close one hundred percent and so if trump put some thirty percent arabs on washing machines on solar panels or anything imported from china that does not make him a protection these per se is just trying to protect those sectors of the economy and the thing that has not been reported is that those tar if it will taper off down to zero percent in the next few years or so he hasn't said thirty percent forever but that's what the public believes suppose public only reads the first
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sentence of what we say and what we report that we're going to thirty percent now and then going down to zero the next few years ok and did you want to get in on that. but that's the problem you know trump's messaging is chaotic let's face it as we all know when he travels abroad he tends to read his written speeches written by his advice that was the case yesterday and but on the whole the messaging both on trade policy but also on foreign policy is chaotic and the danger of that and i agree that he doesn't often mean what he says and that actually it's not protection and full blown protectionism. but it but the come the the chaotic nature of the messaging is that it would it raises tensions it raises trade tensions around the world and political tensions around the world which create financial tensions and which could trigger an accident of some kind or another and so this is what is so
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dangerous about you know the haphazard way in which he does communicate the chaotic way in which the white house communicates with the rest of the world so i am not complacent about this and i don't think we should be complacent i think he's quite dangerous to the functioning of the global economy and that's because of his nationalistic and protectionist instincts but having said that i mean he's not really addressing the real problem the real problem isn't trade the real problem the financial flows and the determination for example of the value of the dollar by markets. not he has and the new canon has no control over that they claim but the fact of the matter is that the dollar has been overvalued it was overvalued in twenty fourteen and that puck explains the election of trump because that hurt american economy but trump and all of the devices are in favor of not doing anything about managing and stabilizing the global economy they're in favor of this
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of the global economy being managed by invisible capital markets invisible to us and unaccountable to us and responsible to a lot of us to lety of currencies of trade and of financial flows. and they're not prepared to do anything about that there are any prepared to as i say engage in this chaotic messaging which just raises political and trade and financial tension hard to agree with that analysis from man. yes and i would go further than that i think maybe the root problem of the global economy is financial ization so we've had you know the crisis in two thousand and eight which was solved by more liquidity quantitative easing and a competitive devaluation i don't know if the dollars to hire too low because everybody is printing like crazy and everybody is to is engaging in debt after debt after death you know so that i think has not been solved by trump despite his campaign rhetoric to go against you know the wall street fact that's he's in fact employed people from goldman sachs and others he's not going against special
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interests neither there nor in the foreign policy in will have with israel the israel lobby nor with the financial lobby nor with the arms law and the so on all three fronts trumping the fact you know betrayed his campaign promises and the financial problems go beyond trump i think the united states was in the call of the financialization in the whole world i think that's something that was there before and it's only been exacerbated now so it's still not been solved and we're waiting for this next bubbles you know you know sense to pop so we'll see when that happens you mention goldman sachs which would obviously have to come up in a conversation like this and actually lloyd blankfein c.e.o. of goldman goldman sachs tweeted this after trump's speech yesterday he said give truck credit for campaigning where there are no electoral votes his message at davos promoting america's interests doesn't mean withdrawing from the world agreed now can we stick with international commitments on environment trade and defense so there's actually currently thirty according to the world trade organization thirty
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five new bilateral and regional trade pacts that are under consideration the u.s. is only in on one of them so the world is moving forward regardless of the new positioning that donald trump is trying to get for the u.s. can you just jump in and out of these agreements when you want to michel. no you cannot but as a new president you can stop or let's say and do everything that was done before if you don't agree with those policies and then start resigning one by one of course other countries have been air share from previous policy they may have not changed in the last year but trump. approach is a whatever was done before could be wrong or maybe it is maybe it is into so let's stop it let's review it and then let's sort of reconsider if we want to carry on
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with those agreements or not. he has said what i call it a temporary no to everything or to all agreements or climate trade and so on and then over time he will pick cherry pick those that are in the interest of the u.s. or what he perceives are the interests of the us. in my mind the trump approach is very clear we may not agree we may not like it he feels like a c.e.o. of a company he has a judiciary. obligation to his shareholders to make them richer. and we do not say those same things about other european leaders that are tending and trending toward the protectionism as well. just because maybe they approach it with a different rhetoric or they just get the support of certain ideological fringes
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about he's doing what he feels he has and they bring an end to this maybe once you retire that he's looking after his base he thinks he's going to be hurt by these trade protectionist measures that who he is helping other number the one percent you know that's why gary cohn of goldman sachs you know was the one that led him into that mess and that's why gary had it right. he wrote the speech. yeah so so so you know the billionaires of divorce against do very well the cost brothers in the united states against do very well i'm not so sure that he was looking after his base and what worries me is that having promised to look after the interests of these base having pretended that protectionist you know solar panels and washing machines is helping in space when it does not happen that way the revoked the anger will be much greater than it was in the lead up to his election but i agree that protectionism is not privileged around the world and it's not the politicians have
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suddenly turned bad it's that the financial system has so harmed the interests of ordinary people that they're demanding of their politicians that they should be protected from these uncontrolled mockridge financial polo and though admittedly i want to happen just not to tap into what you're saying right there that the people that the go to davos the people that are in that room. do they have any sense of this type of anger and frustration that you're voicing that people have about about the system i think that it's not enough to know that there is deep anger out there all to rich enough to think they can build themselves a form of protection against it or they can brighten their way through until they can cope co-opt politicians to protect them as the anger rises but i don't think i have the slightest idea honestly. of how their attitudes
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that neglect if you like the interests of ordinary people is going to damage them ultimately this is what happened in the one nine hundred thirty s. you. people were asleep at the wheel as as nationalists and fascists came to power and they came to power because so many people were demanding to be protected from the uncontrolled market forces that were humming their job opportunities their abilities of their children to go to university they have been a city to find a roof over their heads and so on these were being destroyed by so-called market forces and by financial flows and only people demanded that politicians protect them and you know the ones that offered to protect were tended to be the right wing nationalist leeches people like that so we you know we we we i have not learned from history and secondly the big annex just have not learned from history that you know free financial flows and i'm controlled management of the global economy can
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lead to rising nationalism and protectionism and this out to nikki hurt the one percent never mind the rest of mark of and i'm going to give you that the last word on this right now nafta is still being renegotiated right now. depending on how things go with nafta do you think that that could perhaps. predict how for the renegotiating a other paxson trade deals can go do you think there's a lot riding on how nafta goes how it turns out. well yes but you know nafta itself the record is a little bit mixed there was it in the interest of the average u.s. worker there's different studies on that and trump and his base of this week thought so that this wasn't the case and this goes for other you know rock receives that you being one etc view on so i agree with your previous guests on this danger of this stratification and the gap between rich and poor but when i often see that
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this preceded trump to some degree he's in a sense came on the heels of this polarization in society a society and it's true though that the policies he's pursuing now are not necessarily those that he promised and in terms of serving his base and they may in fact further entrench this financial oligarchy and i think the financial system at home as a whole is kind of in jeopardy in the future so we'll see if he manages to reign that in he doesn't then i think it might be his undoing as well especially since the stock market now is that it's you know in a complete bubble only preceded by nine hundred eighty seven i think in terms of the way the stock since you know coke completely defied that relations of companies so it's a crash happens and lord help us that's. ok mark he will have the final word this is a really good conversation i appreciate all of you joining me today for this and pettifor michelle garage she and mark for ha thank you all and thank you for
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watching you can see the program again at any time if you get our website al jazeera dot com also for further discussion our facebook page is very easy to find a space but dot com forward slash a.j. and side story and of course there's always twitter our handle is at h a n side story and me richelle carey in the entirety here i found out. from satellite technology to three d. printing and recycled waste to solar powered classrooms africa is transforming young innovators aap propelling change building communities creating employment and solving. their challenging systems and shaping. creative thinkers
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shaping the continent's future innovate africa at this time on al-jazeera. and. on. u.s. and british companies have announced the biggest discovery of natural gas in west africa but what to do with these untapped natural resources is already a source of heated debate nothing much has changed they still spend most of their days looking forward to full drive like this one five years on the syrians still feel battered or even those who managed to escape their country have been truly unable to escape the war. as witchcraft is sorcery killing spreads across. exposes shocking human rights abuses. of the specific mission. at this time on al jazeera and. on the. u.s. and british companies have announced the biggest discovery of natural gas in west africa but what to do with these untapped natural resources is already
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a source of heated debate nothing much has changed they still spend most of their days looking forward to full drive. five years on the syrians still feel battered or even those who managed to escape their country have been truly unable to escape overlords. the scene for us whether online what is american sign in yemen that piece is always possible but it never happens not because the situation is complicated but because no one cares or if you join us on sat there people that there are choosing between buying medication and eating base is a dialogue i want to get in one more comment because this is someone who's an activist and has posted a story join the global conversation at this time on al-jazeera. are doing this for the benefit of saddam people. so they see the importance of
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their our cars. witness documentaries that open your eyes. at this time on al-jazeera. corruption and conflict high on the agenda as african union leaders hold the annual service in ethiopia.

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