tv Inside Story 2018 Ep 27 Al Jazeera January 28, 2018 2:32pm-3:00pm +03
territories electoral laws charles party wants more autonomy from china. police in russia have raided the moscow office of the opposition leader alexina valmy ahead of nationwide antigovernment protests the money says the police shut down the live feed of his opposition t.v. station police say they were looking for a bomb of and he called for demonstrations after he was barred from running in march his presidential election his candidacy was rejected last month week due to a conviction for a financial crime that he says was politically motivated. i'm not ready to make peace with this eighteen year old regime and i don't want to be prolonged for another six years but if they just want to go to the street myself to get to the protests and whether i get detained or not and i can tell my children what i was their corruption and conflict is said to top the agenda at a meeting of the african union leaders from the fifty five member nations gathering for their annual summit in ethiopia's capital that is out of the finance chairman of the us republican national committee has resigned over allegations of harassment
and sexual assault several women told the wall street journal that steve wynn made unwanted advances and pressured them to perform sex acts when denies the allegations. there's the headlines we'll have more news for you here on out is the era of the inside story next. donald trump says america first is not mean america alone interests business leaders at the world economic forum in davos but can a man who's promoted protectionist policies and scrap trade deals convince the world the u.s. is open for business this is inside story. hello
and welcome to the program i'm richelle carey america first has long been one of the most common refrains of donald trump's administration yes president first used the phrase in his inauguration speech and he's repeated it over the past year in reference to political and economic policies so it's no surprise that the phrase resurfaced in a speech at the world economic forum in davos on friday but this time with the caviar in america for us does not mean america alone when the united states grows so does the world american prosperity has created countless jobs all around the globe we cannot have free and open trade if some countries exploit the system at the expense of others.
we support free trade but it needs to be fair and it needs to be reciprocal president trump insists many of the trade deals the u.s. has signed over the past decades were not reciprocal any plans to end that trend early in his presidency trump refused to back the transpacific partnership a trade deal negotiated by barack obama with the levin under other countries in latin america and east asia the other countries went ahead with the deal without the us trying to mention it in his davos speech that he may consider rejoining as president has also threatened to withdraw from the north american free trade agreement or nafta and last week trump imposed new steep tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines china which makes many of those products has criticized that decision let's bring in our guests now joining us in suffolk in the u.k. is and had a fourth director of the u.k.
based think tank prime economics which focuses on policy research and macro economics in beijing michelle garage the head of the china economic policy research program with nottingham university and answer mark for ha economics analyst and assistant professor at the doha institute for graduate studies and welcome to all of you mark i want to start with you because i understand that you have just returned from davos so how would you say. u.s. president ronald trump speech was received there. well i think it was received more positively than expected anticipated initially of course there's a lot of antipathy towards donald trump among some of the quote unquote economic elites of this world and liberal elites but on the other hand the economy in the u.s. and a tax cuts have been a boost to the economy and so the economic you know sort of balance sheet right now looks pretty good for report card comes pretty good for donald trump and he has thus won some favor in fact despite some you know
reservations towards him as a personality here is it a bit soon though to know for sure what the impact of the tax cuts is going to be well i think is not from himself said in fact the impact has already been seen because people have already figured in the valuations of companies et cetera that these tax cuts will be a boost to earnings and we were seeing now in fact is a sort of a bubble a big fat ugly bubble is down from said about thomas gratian stock market it's gotten even bigger right now and it remains to be seen whether this is sustainable growth or whether in fact there might be some sort of a crash in the offing because it is inflated right now despite all the hype ok so i think question to you michelle what did you hear about how donald trump was or how his speech was received it up as compared to expectations. comparator
expectation. i think of there was no way the novelty was twofold one is that he's continuing to do and try to do what he said during the electoral campaign listeria was promising to do so in a way it's a rare situation around the world where we have a political leader that anyway sticks to what he said during campaign whether we like it or not that's quite unusual clearly here the message was implicitly directed at china because trumper change it a little bit to the rhetoric of ease approach he said that we are open to trade there with the any partner america first of course about we are part of the world unless the someone is not going to work according to fair and equal rules and the reciprocity and of course it is it's a message that is directed to china and other countries that he may perceive or do
things we maybe exchange rate with labor laws situations salaries and so on and in a way damping although the word dumping was not specifically mentioned trump wants equal trade on fair terms on reciprocal terms with the rest of the world or increasingly these is going to be a sore point in the u.s. china relationship that we can address later on but this is the second lesson you are that you are right every act we will have here in beijing you are right we will come back to talk about china more and just a moment first i want to bring an end to the conversation so and when donald trump says america first it sounds like a great campaign slogan how what does america first actually mean policy wise has he truly articulated that. well yes i think. this is as your other contributors just said he has to. he does say what he means and he has done what he
meant to do in other words he is promoting protectionism you know it extends from building a wall in mexico to blocking or raising tariffs on washing machines and sort of panels from south korea and so on so in that sense he he's he's not moved from his agenda but what he's in my view not saying is that actually america has a massive current account and trade deficit and is really really dependent on some of those billionaires moving their funds into the u.s. so. you know america first here is an assumption that america can go to learn but it can't actually you know it is heavily dependent on the rest of the world for the rest of the world savings in order to enable americans to carry on consuming in a way that they do and faqih when you say protectionism. an analyst with sandy
say specifically says that he's this is a quote i think in two thousand and eighteen one of the biggest risks we face is the trump of ministration moving from rhetoric into real policy a real protectionist policy saying that he thinks it's a risk and a bad thing mark what are your thoughts on that. yes it's all true but of course the u.s. is still the preeminent economy and as we saw in davos as well when trump met with european executives they're still very intent on investing in the united states especially of course with these tax cuts now so it's not quite back clear that it will you know just be a return to mercantile ism or to protectionism pure and simple and of course that's a global trend to some degree as well this is trying to sort of safeguard borders central but because by dint of the us being such a powerful important economy most states are a lot of companies will not be able to sort of easily say no to the u.s.
that having been said the dollar has suffered a lot even this week we saw that again and even before trump in fact people have been pulling out some of the money out of u.s. treasuries some of the states and so that is a whole different part of the equation as well what's the future of the dollar and you know the dollar policy of united states as well as stephen and she indicated and then trump reviewed it subsequently and i think that's a big issue as well actually that it that is a good point how important is messaging doll trump is been very unpredictable about a lot of his policies right he'll say one thing one day he'll tweet something another day someone in his cabinet says something another day how important is messaging when it comes to trying to renegotiate any of these deals and i actually i would like mark i'll start with you and i want the others to join in on that as well well i think if you read the art of the deal you see this is always a strategy of trump to be ambiguous in his dealings with the other party to say one
thing and one day and another thing the next day to threaten somebody and then to pull back and we said how is that ago shading tactic how achan you negotiate with someone that if you don't think of doing so in good faith. well i mean that's that's his strategy right he says and the art of the deal he did that with the chinese to he threatens them one day and then he pulls back the next day and tries to exact concessions by antagonizing the other party in the first instance and then relenting in the second i mean that's a strategy and sometimes it works sometimes it might be dangerous in political situations but you know it remains to be seen where it goes but he has a lot of trump cards so to speak in his hand still despite the u.s. and losing market share and the company you had to say trump card somebody was going to have to say chuck car today so it got to be you mark michel so i would like your thoughts as well the fact that this has been one of the criticisms of donald trump's foreign policy he'll say one thing a sector a state says something else when it comes to to particularly economic policy how is
important how important is that rather for the messaging to be consistent for other countries to know where the u.s. stands what they mean what it is they want. well there is been some changes over a three but i think the from the main goal and underlying principle of drums policy really hasn't changed maybe we analysts the media have reported in the front ways or but when the you hear him directly from he's mouth as we did today in and hours his message has been clear and in a way that there is a consistent a tramp is not a protectionist we do tend to say our trump is a protection but he's not a he is a protecting some sub sectors of the us economy isn't an economy and only for a limited period of time so he's a you know way i would call it
a i would call him a target protection is of certain sectors of certain segments of the economy now the different thing between being protectionist and not in even the ideologically is that the people who believe in free markets they tend to believe in free market full stop are always at any cost people who maintain to be believing in the protections they never say we close our door entirely we never sell anything we never buy anything from other countries they always mean i think that's what was most people think we do selected protection easement so we are here in a bit of an imbalance a liberalised means open one hundred percent protection is never means close one hundred percent and so if trump put some thirty percent arabs on washing machines on solar panels or anything imported from china that does not make him a protection he's per se is just trying to protect those sectors of the economy and
the thing that has not been reported is that those tar if it will taper off down to zero percent in the next few years or so he hasn't said the thirty percent forever but that's what the public believes supposed public only reads the first sentence of what we say and what we report how he said that we're going to thirty percent now and then going down to zero the next few years ok and did you want to get in on that. but that's the problem you know trump's messaging is chaotic let's face it as we all know when he travels abroad he tends to read his written speeches written by his advice that was the case yesterday in davos but on the whole the messaging both on trade policy but also on foreign policy is chaotic and the danger of that and i agree that he doesn't often mean what he says and that actually it's not protection and full blown protectionism. but it but the come the the chaotic nature
of the messaging is that it would it raises tensions it raises trade tensions around the world and political tensions around the world which create financial tensions and which could trigger an accident of some kind or another and so this is what is so dangerous about you know the haphazard way in which he does communicate the chaotic way in which the white house communicates with the rest of the world so i am not complacent about this and i don't think we should be complacent i think he's quite dangerous to the functioning of the global economy and that's because of his nationalistic and protectionist instincts but having said that i mean he's not really addressing the real problem the real problem isn't trade the real problem the financial flows and the determination for example of the value of the dollar by markets. not he has and the new canon has no control over that they claim but the fact of the matter is that the dollar has been overvalued it was overvalued in
twenty forty and that puck explains the election of trump because that hurt american economy but trump and all of the devices are in favor of not doing anything about managing and stabilizing the global economy they're in favor of this of the global economy being managed by invisible capital markets invisible to us and unaccountable to us and responsible to a lot of us to lety of currencies of trade and a financial close. and they're not prepared to do anything about that there are any prepared to as i say engage in this chaotic messaging which just raises political and trade and financial tension hard to agree with that analysis from man. yes and i would go further than that i think maybe the root problem of the global economy is financial ization so we've had you know the crisis in two thousand and eight which was solved by more liquidity quantitative easing and a competitive devaluation i don't know if the dollars to hire too low because everybody is printing like crazy and everybody is to is engaging in debt after debt
after death you know so that i think has not been solved by trump despite his campaign rhetoric to go against you know the wall street fact that's he's in fact employed people from goldman sachs and others he's not going against special interests neither there nor in the foreign policy in war with israel with the israel lobby nor with the financial lobby nor with the arms law and the so on all three fronts trumping the fact you know betrayed his campaign promises and the financial problems go beyond trump i think the united states has inequality in financialization in the whole world i think that's something that was there before and it's only been exacerbated now so it's still not been solved and we're waiting for this next bubbles you know you know sense to pop so we'll see when that happens you mention goldman sachs which would obviously have to come up in a conversation like this and actually lloyd blankfein c.e.o. of goldman goldman sachs tweeted this after trump's speech yesterday he said give truck credit for campaigning where there are no electoral votes his message at
davos promoting america's interests doesn't mean withdrawing from the world agreed now can we stick with international commitments on environment trade and defense so there's actually currently thirty according to the world trade organization thirty five new bilateral and regional trade pacts that are under consideration the u.s. is only in on one of them so the world is moving forward regardless of the new positioning that donald trump is trying to get for the u.s. can you just jump in and out of these agreements when you want to michel. no you cannot but as a new president who you can stop or let's say and do everything that was done before if you don't agree with those policies and then start resigning one by one of course other countries have been air share from previous policy the may have not changed in the last year but trump. approach is
a whatever was done before could be wrong or maybe it is maybe it is into so let's stop it let's review it and then let's reconsider if we want to carry on with those agreements or not. he has said what i call it a temporary no to everything or to all agreements or climate trade and so on and that over time he will pick cherry pick those that are in the interest of the u.s. or what he perceives are the interests of the u.s. . in my mind the trump approach is very clear we may not agree or we may not like he feels like a c.e.o. of a company he has a judiciary. obligation to his shareholders to make them richer. in this case as president of the united states the seizure of legation is to the citizen of the united states and we do not say those same things about
other european leaders that are pending and trending toward the protectionism as well. just because maybe they approach her with a different rhetoric or they just get the support of certain ideological fringes about he's doing what he feels he has and they bring an end to this do you want to retire that he's looking after his base you think he's going to be hurt by the trade protectionist measures that who he is helping other number the one who said you know that's why gary cohn of goldman sachs you know was the one that led him into that mess and that's why gary had it right he wrote the speech. yeah so so so you know the billionaires of divorce against do very well the cost brothers in the united states against do very well i'm not so sure that he was looking after his base and what worries me is that having promised to look after the interests of
these base having pretended that protectionist you know solar panels and washing machines is helping in space when it does not happen that way the revoked the anger will be much greater than it was in the lead up to his election but i agree that protectionism is not privileged around the world and it's not the politicians have suddenly turned bad it's that the financial system has so harms the interests of ordinary people that they're demanding of their politicians that they should be protected from these uncontrolled mockridge financial polo and though admittedly i want to tap and it may just not tap into what you're saying right there that the people that the go to davos the people that are end of that room. do they have any sense of this type of anger and frustration that you're voicing that people have about about the system i think that it's not enough to know that there is deep
anger out there all to rich enough to think they can build themselves a form of protection against it or they can bright their way through until they can cope co-opt politicians to protect them as the anger rises but i don't think i have the slightest idea honestly. of how their attitudes that neglect if you like the interests of ordinary people is going to damage them ultimately this is what happened in the one nine hundred thirty s. you. people were asleep at the wheel as as you nationalists and fascists came to power and they came to power because so many people were demanding to be protected from the uncontrolled market forces that were humming their job opportunities their abilities of their children to go to university they have been achieved to find a roof over their heads and so on these were being destroyed by so-called market forces and by financial flows and ordinary people demanded that politicians protect
them and you know the ones that offered to protect were tended to be the right wing nationalist leeches people like that so we you know we we we i have not learned from history and secondly the big annex just have not learned from history that you know free financial flows and i'm controlled management of the global economy can lead to rising nationalism and protectionism and this ultimately hurts the one percent never mind the rest of the mark of and i'm going to give you that the last word on this right now nafta is still being renegotiated right now. depending on how things go with nafta do you think that that could perhaps. predict how for the renegotiating a other paxson trade deals can go do you think there's a lot riding on how they have to go how it turns out. well yes but you know nafta itself the record is a little bit mixed there it wasn't in the interest of the average u.s.
worker there's different studies on that and trump and is based on this week thought so that this wasn't the case and this goes for other you know bureaucracies that you being one etc view on so i agree with your previous guests on this danger of this stratification and the gap between rich and poor but when i often see that this preceded trump to some degree he's in a sense came on the heels of this polarization in society a society and it's true though that the policies he's pursuing now are not necessarily those that he promised and in terms of serving his base and they may in fact further entrench this financial oligarchy and i think the financial system at home as a whole is kind of in jeopardy in the future so we'll see if he manages to reign that in he doesn't then i think it might be his undoing as well especially since the stock market now is that it's you know in a complete bubble only preceded by nine hundred eighty seven i think in terms of the way the stock since you know coke completely defied that relations of companies
so it's a crash happens and lord help us that's. ok mark he will have the final word this is a really good conversation i appreciate all of you joining me today for this and pettifor michelle garage she and mark for ha thank you all and thank you for watching you can see the program again at any time if you get our website al-jazeera dot com also for further discussion our facebook page is very easy to find a space but dot com forward slash a.j. and tight story and of course there is always twitter our handle is at a.j. inside story and me richelle carey in the entire team here i found out.
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