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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 87  Al Jazeera  March 29, 2018 3:32am-4:01am +03

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u.s. nationals to bring action against foreign countries they believe may have assisted acts of terror within the united states u.s. president donald trump has replaced another senior member of his team veterans affairs secretary david is the second cabinet secretary to leave over a travel expense controversy. to replace him with his white house doctor ronnie jackson a south korean delegation is on its way for high level talks with north korea in the demilitarized zone that separates the two countries they're expected to finalize the details of kim jong meeting with south korean president. this comes just days after. to beijing where he met the chinese president xi jinping there's been a riot at a jail inside a police station in venezuela tear gas was also fired at family members demonstrating outside the facility. they're demanding to know what happened to the prisoners dozens of inmates are thought to have been killed but there's been no
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official word on the number of dead or what triggered the violence the gunmen have attacked a hotel and killing at least one person injuring two others it happened in the. five man reportedly approached the entrance and opened fire. returned to pakistan for the first time since being shot in the had six years ago she's expected to meet top officials the twenty year old was attacked by the taliban those are the headlines on al-jazeera inside story coming up next they with us.
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a surprise summit between china and north korea it's all smiles in beijing join ken jong un's first overseas trip as leader and the chinese remind the world that they have a crucial vote on any nuclear and missile talks with donald trump so is the north in a stronger position this as inside story. they've been allies since the one nine hundred fifty s. hundreds of thousands of chinese soldiers are believed to have died in the korean war and the north spin an important offer for china ever since keeping u.s. troops allied with south korea away from the chinese border but their relationship soured as the north's nuclear bomb and to continental missile ambitions expanded under the leadership of kim jong un this year the diplomacy has been high on the
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north's agenda including groundbreaking visits to the winter olympics south of the border and comes due at summits with both the south korean and american presidents or the north relational ally seemed to be sidelined bought with kim choosing china for his first overseas trip as leader well chinese leaders have a charles to assert their influence in any diplomatic solution here much holocaust spondon to adrian brown and beijing. paying this was a diplomatic triumph he did not u.s. president donald trump now the first world leader to meet kim jong il a chinese state controlled media waited until kim was back home before confirming what officials had tried so hard to deny just a day earlier. in the great hall of the people kim and his wife were welcomed like old friends appearance is important at times like this she opted for
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a business suit whereas kim stuck to the look favored by his father and grandfather the wives of both men were present during most of the photo opportunities. visits like this are all about symbolism for she it served as a reminder that china still holds sway over its neighbor and intends to be at the center of diplomatic efforts to achieve a nuclear free korean peninsula. it's not clear what made him come to beijing or indeed what incentives he may have been offered to do so but china remains north korea's only real friend and ally so it's fair to assume the president xi jinping might want to know what kim's negotiating strategy will be during his upcoming summit with president trump. and kim's visit made it possible for china to know what north korea will be talking about to south korea and the united states in these discussions on the nuclearization china has also learned what north korea's demands will be which will help china. india it's
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a visit the would have seemed unimaginable just a few months ago where north korea was ignoring chinese appeals for restraint at an exhibition showcasing some of china's technological achievements the message appeared to be we can help you with all of this if you behave china's leaders are fond of metaphors that are lavish banquet she told his guest that in the beautiful season of spring everything comes to life kim replied i believe our meeting will yield abundant fruit that could mean making good on his commitment to give up nuclear weapons the fruits of spring were apparent in the garden of the state guesthouse where friendship also seemed to blossom she accepted an invitation to visit north korea and told him he was welcome to visit china again the visitors left happy adrian brown al-jazeera beijing.
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well china and north korea have a mutual defense treaty signed decades ago but chinese leaders have tried to convince their neighbors to stop developing nuclear bombs the chinese government led seven years of negotiations line a six party talks to dismantle north korea's nuclear program after kim jong un took power in two thousand and eleven the chinese were surprised by the purge of several moscow. and with close links to china including kim's uncle jang song taek or commanded his chinese allies with missile and nuclear bomb tests and china suspended colin imports from the north last year china's overall trade with north korea declined by more than ten percent in two thousand and seventeen and that appears to be a major economic blow considering china accounts for almost ninety percent of total trade well let's bring in our panel now from saul carroll the director of m.k. news a new site focused on north korea from beijing on
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a tank and an investment banker and advisor to the chinese government on economic and development issues and from chicago father of the chicago council on global affairs welcome to you all mr ken jong un's first trip to a foreign country since taking power in two thousand and eleven just how significant is that and does it mean that north korea is now ready for more engagement on the nuclear issue. well it's significant in the sense that it is condolence first of a trip overseas it's been six years since he became leader. and going to china in his father's ahmed trained seems like a small voice of security it is a priority but you know it is for the north korean government and i think it's very into the look at all of this in the big picture which is this diplomacy we're seeing now is coming after a very intensive year of mr allonby killer testing and it's
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a year in which we saw three r.c.b. ends and test it and the north korean stating definitively that they develop development plans have been complete it's a full crate it's in the state kill force in. north korea it has kind it's completed its nuclear weapons programs and it's now willing to talk but it seems the distance denethor is ation it wants to talk about is a very lofty version very little to go and that's going to be a lot of difficulty in laying the foundation for a credible path where to you that will satisfy all sides. mr tradeoff as mr kalvin saying it has been a year of tensions on the pro korean peninsula we had a year of threat tests more sanctions but does this me saying show that the sanctions are working. i think it's really too early to to say that there has
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been some anecdotal evidence that has come out people have been watching gas prices that had spiked in the past but then those came back to just about normal and so there's really no way to tell i think we need to remember that if sanctions are really going to work they need to target the regime and those at the very top but of course north korea is a criminal organization that is built on a national scale and so the money flows up and the consequences flow down so if there are people suffering there probably at lower levels and the north korean regime has showed continually that it has no real regard for citizens at lower levels so if sanctions really are the reason for this we're going to need to wait and see there is a bank of korea report that's due out later this year where they're going to make estimates on the north korean economy but for now i see this more as north korea thinking that it has an advantage and it's not so much sanctions that are pushing it into negotiations with the united states and others and this attack and whatever it is that is pushing north korea to these new valent of negotiations how
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significant is it for the chinese president xi jinping to tens for nations with north korea last year and looking increasingly sidelined. well i don't think you could ever sideline the largest neighbor they have the longest border china is going to be necessary to any kind of resolution keep in mind that despite all this talk the situation has not changed the u.s. is not going to abide a north korea with the nuclear threat capability reaching of the united states and it's very doubtful that the d.p. r. k. would give up its only leverage which is its nuclear program so there has to be some sort of breakthrough that comes through and i think that probably will have to be some sort of security guarantee either by russia china or both because there is perhaps a lack of trust what it comes to the united states given what has happened with
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iran what happened in with saddam hussein and khadafi and assad so in these particular instances it's doubtful that the p r k is going to entirely trust the u.s. and these might be just the beginning for rays of either play for time or to see what china the u.s. and the world will pay to have the d.p. r. k. under control so how what do you make of that what is china willing to do to control north korea of course has that very enviable tosk. keeping it and line of it at the same time not punishing enough to risk of regime collapse on its border. yes a choice nice main go with the d.p. r. k. is to ensure that there are still that it's a noble goal and i think the days that go with the need for the mission comes beneath the stars especially with the level of threat but that escalated last year
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when you had pyongyang threatening to surround us co-opt them with medium range missiles at best and so on it was a real fear that that could break out soon. but we have a very difficult situation ahead and i think the primary problem is very different expectations in china south korea and the united states about the best way to go forward and just to get the real text your from that it was just don't bolton who just the other day said that before being appointed national security adviser that he favors the trump summit because if the north koreans agree to telling the u.s. which pools in and puts the planes can come into to collect north korea's nuclear program john bolton is all full that anything else then it's a good excuse to use a military option and that's pretty unrealistic right thing for d.p. r. k.
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south korean and chinese perspectives in this in this trade off how do you see the new national security adviser john bolton's role in all of this given his talk of the pasta you know attacking north korea how much that new appointment factor into these talks do you think. well of course you have to wonder about how the new national security advisor is going to advise the president of my primary concern is what he's going to do with the national security council staff if you look down down the staff there are several very reliable people who have been working with korea who know korea well and i think of played a very important role in being intermediaries and going back and forth not only to china obviously but also to south korea one of our most important allies if he determines that they are not reliable that they are perhaps holdovers from the obama administration which i know that a few of them are and they are then sidelined or perhaps kicked out of the national
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security council altogether the replacements that come in for those people are going to be very important to watch in terms of what they're recommending to do on korea their connections back on to the korean peninsula and how they see this playing out that's a tag on is the u.s. even ready for substantive talks with north korea for this thing this much anticipated meeting between president trump and kim jong un given what mr fayed has just said and the fact that the embassy in seoul doesn't have an ambassador there's not a secretary of state yet. well . my colleague has pointed out some of the larger flaws in this in the technical sense but you know donald trump it's not clear that even understands what's going on in terms of the situation he's not willing to be briefed and if he has. john bolton whispering in his ear bomb them back to the stone ages he just might i mean
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people when we're talking about bolton remember this is a man who is still defending the invasion of iraq that killed you know those responsible for killing millions of people it's for four to six trillion dollars of u.s. debt and here's somebody who's a vising the president the present president who called all of bush's appointees and neo cons the you know the greatest fiasco on earth so no he's not prepared obviously and this is why it's going to be a fiasco at best i think china has stepped in to try to calm the waters ahead of this note that they fully briefed trump and his team as to what they were doing there has to be some sort of semblance an adult in the room and that's where it's not going to come from donald trump i think young kim was very concerned in the first questions i would ask if him or let us say the first answers i would want is what would china do if the u.s. attacked north korea and second what what position do you tend to take on these
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sanctions are these going to continue or get worse the answer those questions would have a lot to do with how i would be personally proceeding. mr cowles so it doesn't sound like you know from what either of our guests a saying that the u.s. is very prepared for these talks what about south korea and president because you know we had kim jong un's father kim jong il make his first trip to china in the year two thousand reportedly to consult with the chinese leadership ahead of his summit where the south korea's then lida are we seeing something similar here and is south korea more prepared than their previous governments have begun and then the u.s. is now well the south korea in summit is is interesting in the sense that it's going to be very very soon and we strongly that they've motivated it almost equally in the same way as the north korean interest in
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particular using this idea and conjunctions new speech full this summit or this into clear apartments take place both careers were very were it last year about the threat of war and i think that selfishly for the right reasons. oh beijing and pyongyang are kind of all on the same page with regards to probably won't wind wanting to provide optics that will satisfy trump at least until the end of his in his generation and so whatever it can take from those three i'm not saying they can be working side by side. they are coming from the same feel of concern and so if they can come to an agreement where north korea on the set face agrees to give up more amount of its nuclear program and ever before on the cephus then that could satisfy trump for the short. list of eight how do you think that north korea is in
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a place now where it would denuclearize denuclearize to some extent because kim jong un did speak about it with the chinese president. well denuclearizing to some extent still leads a nuclear north korea and that outcome i think is going to be unacceptable to the united states for now they may try to pursue a freeze for freeze that is north korea doesn't develop any more weapons and the u.s. perhaps goes back and starts to think about a freeze on its military. exercises with south korea but again the result is they're the same that we're left with a nuclear north korea that's a tag and what do you make of that well. i mean it. talks about this fact that these three are working together let's see what the alternatives would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of south koreans being killed by not to clear arms but by conventional weapons the
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nine to thirteen thousand artillery pieces that are aimed at about a one quarter of the south korean population yes i think they are concerned and they don't want to war so talking about this in dispassionate terms as if this is some sort of exercise in the classroom is not a fair way of doing it i think the whole world would like a resolution to this right now you have donald trump saying that he wants to act tough he wants to show his base that he can push this little guy around and that they either do what he wants or else and this is not the way that you conduct diplomacy it's the reason why most of the world is looking askance at him he's not reliable or predictable those are the two bedrocks of business and diplomacy and so far he's offering neither so carol what will do you think it takes to find a resolution to this could we have
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a resumption of six party talks i don't think that's likely but i do think. first of all trump has the trying to ministration and the ball and bolton especially have very very high unrealistic expectations about the ant to demilitarize the peninsula and the reason i mention those three countries working together is because in effect they have to human. that very senior parts of the u.s. administration and provide optics that make it look like they're getting what they want and the north koreans in a way can help that by refrain buying from nuclear and missile testing in gauging in shuttle diplomacy with beijing and south korea at the highest levels all of those kind of things even meeting with all paper that's been floated by tokyo from some sources all of those kind of things really reduce the chances that we're going to wake up here and saw one morning with the sound of artillery. but you know actual strike from the best that comes out and the straight hole for all of those
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things will all of those things be enough without any real involvement from the u.s. if it's just not ready not up to it. you know the u.s. involvement i think you know it's been touched on before that when president shows up to this he's going to be probably wholly unprepared for what he's about to get into i would note that this is been you know quite well played by by the south koreans in the fact that one of the things that donald trump has noted throughout his presidency is that he's taking a transactional approach while prime minister rabin has tried to warm up to donald trump and and perhaps have played golf with him appear to be friends that it has gotten japan very little but south korea has been more under pressure from the united states and yet it has delivered one of the most prized deliverables to president trump and that's the the ability for him to appear as a statesman so for him to appear as the great negotiator and they've secured a deal for him to meet with kim jong un they've played that very well and i think
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that has brought the south koreans more closely into the u.s. fold and made them a more reliable partner for the united states from the united states point of view mr chang and what would you like to see the united states do with this opportunity that's been presented to them from the south koreans especially after you know the last year of heightened tensions that we've had would this not be a wasted opportunity if nothing was done. well there's very little that can be done i mean from the u.s. political side it doesn't matter if it's donald trump or another president any president who allowed a nuclear north korea to have nuclear capabilities against the united states would be voted out of office and probably along with his party so that's just not something that can happen politically the issue here is that the u.s. should be working with china and russia japan south korea and saying you know even if they don't have six party talks let's get it together and have
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a unified position what is it that we need to do i'm willing to take our troops out of south korea if this is helps china come to terms with taking care of the d.p. r. k. and by that i mean insisting on a de nuclear dupnik do need denuclearization of the place at the threats of all of these powers saying well you either go if you go against one of us you go against all of us trump was trying to seize the spotlight for himself aided by the south koreans i agree very canny move but right now it looks like kim jong un is the crafty one he's gotten both beijing and united and washington to come to him this is unheard of for a country that is considered a rogue nation that has defied the u.n. and so carol even if we don't see those six party talks which don't sound entirely likely could we see there's the political will exist for the things that mr tangan
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is talking about to take place. said it probably doesn't the russian charani east south korean side but the u.s. and japanese are question mark arbib. and i fill the u.s. as we as we're saying those just very high expectations and detroit nation is by people always going to be a multi the face endeavor you know but they have freeze doing you have inspection as you have dissembled them and then you have to do something for scientists that's not going to happen overnight as john bolton wants and it's hard to know where with the trump ministration where the line is between tough talk bluster and real initiative in and sort of thinking in mode today ssion and keeping all of that in mind mr food off what do you think is the best that we can expect out of the
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progress that we have had the cea. i think the best that we can expect is that negotiations are going to be ongoing negotiations fail of course the ominous alternative is a perhaps preventative strike by the united states which would lead to perhaps all out war so the best that we can hold for especially when this round of summer tree is done let's say that kim and trump do end up meeting which i think is going to happen unlike many people who have their doubts but i think the best that best outcome from that will be essentially they agreed to keep talking. any other outcome i think plays to the advantage of kim jong un he is going into this with with his kind of chosen adventure and seeing that president trump really wants to do this does it isn't going to be well briefed on the situation and even having the meeting is probably one of the goals of kim jong un and in of itself so let's just hope that they come out of this there is no disaster from any of the summits and there's an agreement that negotiations are going to continue they're going to be
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young going in that contact will be maintained thank you very much for that. that is joining us from chicago from seoul chadha carol and from beijing on a tank and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website c.n.n. dot com and for further discussion to go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. and side story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a.j. and side story from the elizabeth and the whole team here thank you very much for watching and bye for now.
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