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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 207  Al Jazeera  July 27, 2018 3:32am-4:01am +03

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since against ankara if andrew bronson isn't released the us government says it's released more than eighteen hundred migrant children from immigration detention facilities in announcement comes just hours ahead of a court ordered deadline by which immigration authorities have to return about three thousand separated children to the families the government also says it's reunited more than fourteen hundred children with their parents but at least seven hundred children are still separated as they are not eligible for reunification french president emmanuel mckown has rejected any new trade deal between the e.u. and the united states has said that europe and france never wanted a trade war he said the u.s. needs to make a clear gestures on its part to reduce the trade dispute those are the headlines the news continues here on al-jazeera after inside story.
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cutting off the supply of middle east oil saudi arabia temporarily suspend shipments through the straits opted to have its tank this hour attacked by the rebels off the coast of yemen without further fuel regional tensions and to high oil prices this is inside story. welcome to the program i'm peter dubey petrol prices could soon be on the way up because of the war in yemen and sanctions being reimposed on iran saudi arabia has ordered its oil tankers to stop states sailing through the bible mendip straight
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off the coast of yemen off to two all those were attacked if ships on their way to the suez canal and beyond can't use this vital seaway rerouting all the way around south africa will out weeks to delivery times and push up the cost of oil and all the products who the rebels have been fighting in yemen for the past three years they're backed by iran and face a coalition of countries led by major oil producers saudi arabia and the united arab emirates they also use the straits of hormuz to export their oil worldwide but the gateway to the gulf is also a hostage to tensions between washington and tehran iran's leaders have one they'll shut the strait if the u.s. halts iranian oil exports doldrums reimposing sanctions after pulling out of the nuclear deal. and again you don't name is it a good action enough so that the americans say they would not allow iran to export even one drop of oil do you think iran is that weak what are you thinking
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definitely and certainly you cannot do such a thing we will stand up to you we are men of resistance the entire iranian nation will resist these major general kassam silly money from iran's revolutionary guard said this on thursday quotes the red sea which was secure is no longer secure with the american presence trump should know that we are a nation of martyrdom and that we await him ok let's introduce our guests today joining us from london is dr mundo selami an international oil economist from washington d.c. we have al gore saying she's the c.e.o. of alcoa saying global strategy is a political and business firm both with projects in the u.s. and the middle east and we also have mustapha costs a political commentator joining us live from tehran welcome to all of you meant to sell them in london first quarter the who's the rebels trying to achieve here they are trying to impact on saudi oil. exports and also to
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assure that they have the upper hand in yemen. the war in yemen has to be costly for saudi arabia and the united arab emirates and the whole if is not of trying to assure the united the saudi arabia and u.a.e. that continuing the order will not give them and the benefit in the future and it's better to come to the negotiate the so they are using their at facts on the. their areas of saudi arabia and u.a.e. and it thank god has to put pressure on the saudi government. in washington potentially what could this do to the oil price. i think definitely we should expect that oil prices continue to increase we've seen under the trump administration over a fourth of july weekend that oil prices got the prices at the pump for american
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citizens were the highest they have been in for years and for whatever reason that trump administration allows mohamed bin salon and saudi arabia to act very aggressively in the region completely untried and shacked or in fact with u.s. support as we know the who are backed by iran and saudi arabia has blocked this important strait which raises the question of whether or not iran will then block the strait of hormuz in a retaliatory effort the strait of hormuz is extremely significant because over twenty percent of the world's entire oil flows through that and it is the opening from the persian gulf out into the sea was something close tension in tehran so clearly the who sees. deliberately trying to hit the these where it hurts the a run code. well thank you very much for having me on the show then. you know the
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point is that there are been some misunderstandings in here because and so a lot of yemen they have been reiterating since last night that they have targeted washin and not crude wessels while saudi officials including their energy minister they are insisting that their crude missiles have been targeted and i have not personally seen any proof or evidence to decide who is telling the truth but a nation that has been under attack by the saudis and a number of other nations for the last several years and seventeen thousand people have been killed in that country of the countries under siege and there are many diseases an epidemic diseases than there like cholera and they are under much pressure and they have every right to defend themselves one more point actually with regard to major general hossam soleimani there have been some misc old saw that started actually from here and i've seen many reports continuing this
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miss report with regard to the red sea he never said that we've done or you know we are making the us president insecure in there he said that the united states has done meddling in the red sea like many other regions in the war and at that the region of the red sea is now in secure even for the americans themselves so that doesn't mean a threat actually that was you know. stating his assessment of the united states military plans in the middle east with regard to iran it's no secret that iran has options available to increase the crude prices you know if crude prices rise more than some specific levels then rounding international support for sanctions would be a very difficult and cumbersome. i'm sat task for the donald trump and his administration ok but just just because you have recently started is that it is
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a i do want to keep on talking to the other two guests so in thirty seconds though would you accept that what has happened whether it's oil tankers plural or a warship singular doesn't really matter would you accept two points point number one the symbolism here is huge and point number two arguably it has iranian fingerprints on it i don't believe that iranian is have been involved not at all because if iran means to increase the oil prices through such moves then it needs to take a very tough and strong and much more powerful action in order to boost prices are ten dollars plus but such an action by the end so a lot movement it could probably increase prices for nor more than a few dollars maybe one or two dollars not more for a very limited short period of time because millionaires the consumers would enter this scene in order to ensure the free for all of oil in bottom and that so if iran
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wants to play some kind of counter strategy against the u.s. sanctions that it needs to take a much more powerful action i don't believe that iran has been involved member selim in london does this mean that hu data becomes even more of a battlefield than it has been to date because the data is crucial to taking the tension out of this conflict because of humanitarian aid and because of trade. it will indeed but the most important thing is history of bob and mendip through which a lot millions of barrels of oil pots every day and its weight you rope force out to any be and the united arab emirates to a great extent most of their oil goes through the ages of accretion so they can bypass this threat of by an amended but for oil bestand for the
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o.p.m. yoni and country is it has to pass through the bab al manned and anyway and you threat to their routes through which they always thank god his goal to the price of oil it might not be much but for because i am being it will add one or two dollars that is not that much at a time when prices anyway out of going to go up based on the positive fundamentals of the global oil market but somehow hussein in washington bahrain the a bahraini authorities are on record as saying they want immediate global action what does that mean. well i think that's a very important call from the bar a nice but we need to understand that bahrain is part of the saudi coalition against the who t.f. first of all second of all we need to understand that this oil the oil prices are
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an incredibly important domestic political issue in the united states and of course in europe as well and so while the saudis in the am roddy's may not be so concerned with the. cross route that doesn't change the fact that the international community should be extremely concerned and as you rightly pointed out earlier the port at al who data is extremely important because that is the access point for essentially all goods and services from the sea to reach the many people both in items to get out and as you pointed out the humanitarian. supplies to get in as we all know the cholera epidemic in yemen has reached just absolutely exponential numbers and it's continuing to grow and there's really no excuse for it because cholera is something that we do have medical solutions for and so we continue to see massive amounts of civilian suffering at the hands of the saudi led
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coalition and they constantly use you know rebels and not wanting weapons to be transferred into yemen to support the hutu rebels as an excuse to not allow a number of humanitarian aid to get in and so i think it is very important for the united states and for europe to place pressure on saudi arabia and on the united arab emirates to allow for more humanitarian support there and to pressure them to come to the negotiating table with the who will so we don't see this continue to escalate because as i pointed out earlier iran if they so choose. could it cut off the strait of hormuz which would have extremely detrimental impacts i think that total cutoff is unlikely because they also collect tariffs from all steps passing through the strait of hormuz and so they like some ships passing but we it wouldn't
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be out of the question to have them temporarily restrict certain exports which would concrete good cause igs egregious detriment to the united states and european economies if not the economy worldwide stuff in a concession from your vantage point what will happen if that call from the bahraini is for international immediate global help full fee is and there's no help coming over the horizon. well i do believe for much of the statements made by your other guest from washington is true that the yemenis are under a tight seas there is a catastrophe a disaster in there and the international community especially the u.n. should play have been major role in resolving this problem through foreseen solve the arabia and its coalition to stop attacks on the nation and resolve this problem for the sake of humanitarian causes of in the meantime i believe
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the arabia and its allies are trying to make some kind of propaganda ad of this of saying that there is a very immediate hazard a threat to of the free flow of energy to parts of the world then energy consumers would be surely sensitive and there would come onto the scene to lay pressure on the who thiis or install or a lot movement in order to you know of will push them back from the data and that that's what they are doing i believe much more need of much more power is needed to be placed on the saudis to step back and so far they and the u.a.e. have failed to you know capture or they'd up or and there is no reason or sign to for us to believe that they could do it in future but what they are doing is wreaking havoc on the nation that that's what is needed that's the immediate
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necessity men do is there more than a grain of truth that's what mr author is saying given that saudi arabia is oil you know despite m.b.'s reinventing the economy allegedly over the next five to ten years you know employing so these in proper jobs instead of just enjoying the profit margin of a massive oil industry why can't they just flip the oil surprise supply from the east of the country to the west they've got the ships they've got the infrastructure they've got the pipelines. because the bulk of that is standing ovations and ketamine as food loading the saudi oil in the eastern part of saudi arabia however saudi arabia has a pipeline oil pipeline which can transmit the oil from the east to the port on the red sea and that is that pipeline was built
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by iraqi money during the iraq iran war so as to let. exports go through and avoid the strait of autumn us the saudis have expanded that in fact doubled its capacity to four million barrels and they're out of care by bill in this case of exporting four million barrels through that pipeline that's bypassing this threat of baptism and the and also by passing in the future and destroying it of homo's so the saudis have managed well with that at least half of their oil exports will good that about how all of our through that pipeline the exports will have to go to europe because remember most of the saudi oil exports go to the age or pacific region so they have to pass the senate of lattimer's but they
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can bypass this threat of bobby mendip and go through the asia pacific region however for their exports to europe they can easily manage through the red sea so is going on to europe so as for the installations itself as the only fields you remember all of the oil fields if not the overwhelming majority of the saudi oil fields are looking at it in the east than bottom of saudi any bia so they can craftsman the. that i'd see but that is steady actions and their third of me that we're a man or a lot of time in the east then bought out of saudi arabia bessemer is there a chance that if this incident gets purchased outside the immediate area the whole situation could get worse before it gets better because people might use it as a springboard to kind of reinvigorate their standing approach to their relationship
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say with saudi arabia donald trump you know couple of months back he had the big thing saying twelve and a half billion dollars worth of a deal with saudi arabia he's got a very specific attitude towards the crown prince and clearly a very specific attitude towards iran as well. exactly and that is one of my primary concerns because i think of the trump administration has allowed the saudi regime to operate largely unchecked and is using hatred towards iran in the united states and in saudi arabia and in israel as a political talking point domestically a lot of the general population doesn't understand the linkages between oil prices and these different straits and points of entry and how this aggressive behavior by saudi arabia is increasing the price of oil down to the consumer level i think that it's very frustrating to see donald trump so supportive of the saudi
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arabia. interests almost to the detriment of the united states i think it would serve us much better in the united states if he took a slightly more balanced approach gave credit where credit was due we already know that iran was complying with the iran deal despite that president chose to pull out of it and it's caused a number of issues and now as you know president trump has has talked about imposing secondary sanctions on countries that operate and do business with iran which in which raises a number of sovereignty issues and also places tension on our relations with those separate nations including many european traditional allies mostafa into iran what are the chances as well that this push is to run on to the bank salutes and also pushes saudi arabia on the back foot as well because they might have to rebalance what the do with there was ships that are at sea off the coast of yemen and they
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might literally have to move to and around the coast so what they've been doing off the eastern coast still have to start doing off the southwestern coast. well you know iran has been conducting anti-piracy patrols in by the bottom and by the navy since two thousand and six according to international laws and according to you know of facts present facts we know that they have never been involved in yemen story or they have never had any problem with the saudis or others they have actually rescued thousands of foreign and non iranian ships that have come under attack by pirates in that region in all throughout the last twelve years so iran is not present end there miller in military terms as regards yemen and saudi arabia problem the point is that the solo these have been you know supporting terrorist
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groups across the middle east they have been helping train clamp down on a democracy seeking movement of the people for the last several years they waged the war on yemen and they have been even threatening a war against iran you know of the crown prince and the fact the ruler ruler mamak been sellman said months ago that they intend to take the war to tehran and then less than a month later there we saw a couple of terrorist attacks by eisel or die at the iranian parliament and him on for many shrine and this means that they are only escalating tensions in this region if the war especially energy consumers intend to guarantee the security of supplies they need to harness so with the rulers. of an attorney i'm going to have you know for us to slouch i wanted more time and all of this i want to get your closing thoughts because we are approaching end of the program member selami in london so we're talking about
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a proxy war here but there were predictions that this kind of incident was going to happen predictions going back twelve fifteen months why is it happening now. well it's by accident it happened but since the truth is i have achieved some success now of the theory saudi oil exports through the amended study that they will be emboldened to do more of that and that will continue however i make a point that the saudis decision the saudi decision makers should read history the british empire refrained from acute pieing north yemen and limited itself to south yemen in aid them simply because the tober guffey of yemen nobody can so brits yemen and occupy it as state that if that is the case
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they should learn that they must cut their losses and leave yemen or at least endeavor to reach a peace treaty with difficulties and leave yemen and on in that case the yemen will not be if threat to saudi any b.s. nor will bubble monday be a threat to oil there is another point i want to mention which a lot of colleagues from washington mentioned. rice principle how about a bit sad. i advice prince mohammed bin saddam not to invest money in the united states because of that is over litigate in relation to nine eleven you know all of that the kong going to says a good read a little what the sixteen overwhelmingly which lifts the immunity oh governments who are citizens would evolve in nine eleven any case any single
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case is that by an american citizen means the of the medical government would you freeze all assists and funds of saudi and understood in do not see this they want to come in there and not points of the nine eleven people yes so my colleague in the middle east has cracked and then he says congress passed that bill it's called jost the justice against state sponsors against terrorism act it passed with overwhelming popularity and congress because of popular support among the american public however president obama vetoed that bill precisely because he understood how detrimental back could put the united states in a position with our middle eastern allies and as we know some of these governments including the saudi arabian government the government and qatar have worked very closely with the united states on at least cirrhotic aiding state sponsorship of
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terrorism ok and cooperating with the united states in trying to identify internal terrorist groups of course there's a lot more work to be done to stood that law is not actually active in present on the buck stuff across chesham into iran in the next twenty seconds tell me this clearly donald trump will not get the saudis reined in that's never going to happen there's nobody to rein in the iranians this plenty of people who would like to bomb iran that's a matter of record so what are the chances that the. bonnie and step back from this i believe that the europeans and americans should act much more wisely when iran has so many options including checking of the you know of saudi of vessels of all op trafficking or moving in the strait of hormuz so ok the last option i believe is that they should they should hold back their threats and the europeans should rush to you know to provide the iran with its needed guarantees for keeping
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the nuclear deal otherwise energy prices might to skyrocket and we may experience. and oil shock similar to one thousand nine hundred seventy three ok we have to leave it there thanks to our guests members selami bassam al gore saying and mustapha question and thank you for your company you can see the program again any time by going to the website al-jazeera com for further discussion check up a facebook page facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also talk to us on twitter at a.j. inside story or at least it will be one for me peace it will be on the team here in doha thanks for watching see some are.
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