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tv   Inside Story 2019 Ep 274  Al Jazeera  October 2, 2019 3:32am-4:00am +03

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groups and international monitors was signed after a meeting in belarus is seen as a major move by ukraine to resolve a conflict that's killed more than 13000 people since 2014. several members of congress in peru have refused to vacate the building even after the president's decision to dissolve the body on monday police of being guarding the area and preventing other politicians from re entering military and police chiefs to supporting my scar as president despite the opposition controlled congress voting to suspend him from office. or those are the headlines the news continues here on al-jazeera after inside story stay with us.
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it's 17 years since the founding of communist china about protests in hong kong overshadowed breakings message of national unity and quality along with trade wars and territorial disputes how will china manage seems persistent challenging this is insight story. hello and welcome to the program i'm fully back to bill the founder of modern china once said a single spock can start a prairie fire while 70 is since mala saddam established a comma is people's republic china's modern day leaders want to contain the spock's potentially threatening their hold on power president xi jinping wore
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a traditional mouse suit to launch the celebrations with a launch military parade in beijing she warned against threats to national unity and send a message to semi-autonomous hong kong and the south through island of taiwan. no power can shake a great model that position no power can stop the progress of the people's republic of china and the people of china when we are. we must uphold a peaceful one country 2 systems principle safeguard hong kong prosperity and stability and promote a peaceful developments of cross streets relations unite all the chinese people to continue to realize the complete reunification of the motherland. or hong kong's leader carry lamb was at the celebrations in beijing while in her home city police were busy putting out fires in untied china protests one man was shot in the chest
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in the latest of 4 months of protests demanding change the hong kong government tone down the national day celebrations our clock has more from hong kong. the big dramatic scenes across hong kong want to target 1st which is china's national day a tear gas has been used in every single rally location and the 6 different organized assemblies across hong kong and one massive march which is a peaceful march which attracted tens of thousands of people to move from court why by through to central hong kong the place is not confirmed that live bullets were used at 2 those locations at the one location in turn 11 particular person was hit and punched range by the mob in other people hospitalized the hospital authority says more than 50 people have got to hospital with injuries after today's various assemblies and protests where police and protesters have clashed or beijing has other problems too the trade war between china and the us continues to damage the world's 2 largest economies what's described as the repression and abuse away go
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muslims in western china is another major issue human rights watch estimates at least a 1000000 people are held in so-called reeducation camps where they're forced to abandon their culture and praise the government and china is also condemned for its territorial disputes with various countries bordering the south china sea china has created manmade islands and built military bases. well let's bring in our guests now for today's inside story from hong kong we have . a professor at hong kong baptist university and author of china to morrow democracy or dictatorship and on skype from seoul south korea gordon chang political analyst and author of the coming collapse of china thank you gentlemen for being on inside story. let me start with you to what extent have the rallies in hong kong spoiled beijing celebrations and could hong kong be the single spark that
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the prairie fire for beijing. i think the protests in hong kong succeeded in supporting the show of the national day and the people's republic of china today . you had these huge parade in beijing this morning. what the international media going going to remember about today will be the violence in the home cohen and the ongoing political causes him. many of the issues which have been raised by the protests has. remained to be solved and i think today by the level of violence which has been reached on both sides of the protests aside but also on the police side we've entered a new ballgame things are getting more complicated fall i think kerry and i'm the chief executive to get out of the crisis gordon chang in so he wrote in
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a recent article that china's communist party has little to celebrate and chinese leader is no longer in control of their destiny the same way why well what you've seen is in hong kong we certainly don't control the streets anymore because we have what looks like open warfare including what may be a fatal shooting of an 18 year old and that will trigger a new round of violence you know we have seen in prior history going back to millennia chinese regimes have on travel often from the outside in including the last regime dynasty so you know right now i think that siege and things got to be a little bit worried you know people in china are not sympathetic with the hong kong protesters but they certainly could be inspired by because people on kong have gotten something they've got the permanent withdrawal of the extradition belt and people on the mainland may say well i've got groups as well so i think it's going
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to be a very difficult time who are out of siege and think i had a difficult time going in you say but in 2. sydney beijing has let these protests in hong kong continue and probating supporters do have a point when they say that if mainland china really wanted to intervene and influence hong kong's affairs then they wouldn't we wouldn't see these continuing protests in hong kong it's been nearly 4 months now all these demonstrations why do you think china has been reluctant to intervene directly i take a different view of this sensually what you got is china not being able to influence events you know they could of course bring in the military but if they were to do that i think they'd be in for years if not decades of essentially it a rule of campaign so i there would be casualties that would be high on both sides so i actually think that china right now is in a position where it realizes it can't influence what's going on in hong kong and is
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really just a bystander well let's bring in our 3rd guest now from beijing has just joined us on skype i know our tongan who is a china political analyst who advises the chinese government on economic and development issues i know i thank you very much for being with us president xi jinping said in his speech at there's no force that can shake the status of this great nation i wonder what is going through the chinese leadership's mind when on this significant day they see the chaos that's been going on in the streets of hong kong well you notice that he referenced 1841 which was the beginning of the century of humiliation that was when a great britain actually forcibly seized the whole column as part of the spoils of the 1st opium warms great britain's chance to be the great drug dealer to china so this is this whole display everything about it was to assure the people
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the integrity of china was protected and that they would not be in essence vassals to a clone. our ever again now in terms of my last colleague's statement ironically the reason that china is being very reserved is a you know it's partially a trap they feel very strongly that this is being instigated by forces especially from us and that this is something where they want the u.s. wants china to go in there with an armed response with the way so that it can be claiming that yes look china is a group dictator so they understand this is the game that's being played and they are trying their best to maintain distance and have faith in the once one country 2 systems ok john pakistan your thoughts on that why do you think china hasn't intervened in hong kong i mean in 1909 the tannin menswear massacre saw pro-democracy protesters killed in town and men and this of course branched china
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and international isolation why do you think they have been more reluctant to step in this time. i think because hong kong is not china hong kong is a special place which was returned to china 22 years ago hong kong political culture dominant political culture is very much democratic. mediated by liberal values now of course you can choose the british having in cool created in the mind of the people liberal values but this is jewish and it is and it does mainland china can convert the homecourt society to the one party system that's why you have this clash of values between hong kong society and men and chinese society so vice versa i don't think that hong kong at this stage can really influence mainland china no sparklies going to said the fire to the prairie in the coming
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years but the having said that sitting ping's room for maneuver in hong kong is pretty narrow because you want on the one hand to keep the one country the system formula you want to keep it credible not only for home but also for taiwan to morrow and he wants also to keep it credible because hong kong is still very important as far as a financial place for hong kong for chinese economy and for chinese credibility on the world stage and i think that's very important for china not to hold the boat too much here so the now there are the options to get out of the crisis one would be to change d.c. the chief executive has to carry land to leave and to appoint someone else that will sort of. really helps. if not putting an end to the cries of these at least knowing the temperature hit on combe the other concession that can be made as been asked for many ways many months and weeks by the protesters is to set up an independent commission for inquiry about police brutality you know but for the time
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being as you know this is the chief executive has refused to fulfill that demand before we move on to other nations let me bring in gordon chang and ask you warden what do you think china's options makings options in hong kong right now andy think that the one china 2 system policy is doomed you know i think the system is doomed this is certainly not working chinese communist cannot leave well enough alone there would be no protests at beijing did not try to encroach on autonomy and clearly we've seen siege and gangs intrusive policies fail you know i just don't see china having very many options given the situation here this is not going to be another tenement where you had you know why don't farm it where chinese armor could kill it well hong kong is very different it's a dense urban landscape it's got narrow roads and alleys got high buildings which are like forts the casualties for china would be extremely high and i don't think
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see chimping really believes that he can sustain that so i don't think there is a military option you know see chimping is not known for restraint and so in general so i don't see why he would be restrained in hong kong right now especially considering the challenge to chinese authorities because the kids are saying on the streets they want independence and that would be anathema you would think i would do something and if it could do something it would have done. all right in beijing talk about taiwan briefly i know you want to respond to what you just heard from gordon and i'll let you do that but taiwan the goal of china has been to eventually unify the taiwan straits how achievable is that today in the current context. well it's not political but it's not very viable because you have people manufacturing these kinds of issues which really have less weave beijing and more
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to do with the economy and what i mean by that is in. taiwan they have a stagnant economy also in hong kong which you in essence have it's the top 100 families have been using that position to enrich themselves while their fellow men and women get very little the average person at the average wage in hong kong would have to work 28 years and not eat or sleep anywhere except their parents house or for one house and a very modest one at that so they've been able to restrict land about aids i mean serious trick building and in essence drive the prices up and this is this is what is is really driving this so all of these ideas of not giving concessions and doing like this you don't do that with them up they don't have a leadership you can't negotiate every sign of weakness as in holding this this
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extradition treaty are only resulted in more mayhap so with this kind of situation this i think you know that this is democracy the flower of democracy is wrong these people are throwing molotov cocktails at chinese troops they're growing up that their fellow couldn't have had a medal a lot more interest on home now couldn't go ahead you know response to that you know we have seen in the beginning of this cycle it's not the kids throwing molotov cocktails it was the excessive force of the use by the police and indeed the reason why the rough tactics of the protesters have not drawn criticism from the mass of society is because people across the society are concerned about the police brutality and you know we've seen this today in some of those videos the police beating a female. who are not protesting on their lawyer prostrate on the ground and police officers are hitting them with their children's need this is just something that we have seen day in day out so i you know i don't know what's going to move them arms
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of the young protesters but clearly the people do not want charter to encroach on their autonomy and so yeah call it democracy call it whatever you want but these people have legitimate grievances ok gentlemen let's move away from hong kong for a bit if we can because there are other issues to explore here of course and one of them being the trade war between the u.s. and china stand where do things stand right now as china celebrates 70 years you've got this trade will going on and there's been a lot of talk about decoupling the world's 2 biggest economies how much would that hurt china and the communist party leadership well we'll serve the middle of this trade war and as you know the negotiation of the are going to resume in october this. whether the they will be able to yield some results remains to be seen. it's likely that we were going to reach some kind of partial agreement on some
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issues. but the fundamental issues which are opposing the u.s. and china are still there and i don't see. both countries really reaching a deal across the board so now the question is whether they will be or the coupling of both economies i think it lead to coupling will remain partial because there are too many businesses and sectors of the economy of both sides which are interdependent of course some of the production lines of already moved to other countries of east asia or south asia but but there are number of industries which you can't move overnight so i think both economies will remain partially interdependent in the longer run so and that's something we have in mind because that will have some thing impact. on the negotiation and the way the both sides can reach a deal and our tongan do you agree with that that both countries have to be interdependent
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to a certain extent even though we've seen china recently trying to turn to other countries in latin america for instance in argentina is decoupling that you know this decoupling that's been mentioned a lot is that china that is that something that china is seriously considering. it's not a question of considering a business and diplomacy it's based on trust once the trust is lost and you cannot reply you have to move elsewhere i would agree that during this investment cycle the companies will try to run out whatever it is that they have been bested and keep it there but in terms of new investment they're going to be looking for other places i mean you already see always announce that they can build their. g.e. radios without any. check hardware or software from the us then you're going to continue to see this kind of developments what's difficult to understand is that the u.s. will be walking away from about a half a trillion dollars a year in business and that's a business that will not be replaced by saying
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a half a trillion i mean the value american companies make in china and south here and also the export back to united states and what is imported back into china from united states so this is a very big number there's no markets to make it up right so it's a little bit strange how this is going to turn out gordon and so a nasim to think that the americans will hurt more from this prolonged trade war with china and the chinese well do you agree with that. i certainly don't you know last year china's merchandise trade surplus with the united states was 119.3 percent of its overall surplus you know that's overwhelming dependence on the u.s. i mean the overriding reality is the u.s. market and also you know we're not america is not a trade dependent connally but china certainly is certainly much more trade
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dependent and by the way we're in the trade deficit country you know one he the foreign minister says oh you know b. american should remember the lessons of the great depression and the trade war well the lesson of the great depression is that trade surplus countries really get hurt in trade wars we're not the trade surplus country so you know up china has a lot to lose much more than the united states does we've got an economy which in reality it is growing faster than china's so you know why should we worry and i are response to that i don't know what's reality reported referring to go or not as i did last recall china is 6 the united states is hovering around 2 and going down you know it was you might sample taken those and. you would start talking about she's when you start talking about types numbers going to 6.9 percent were cases they just say you know reality what is the reality that you're talking. all right
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ality is that and is growing maybe one or 2 percent maybe even contracting as that roman university professor mentioned last december us will grow about 2 to 3 percent and we've got a larger economy so the gap between the u.s. and china will grow but china right now is this is your experience based on a song and surveillance are not your main things are going to make for you're supposed to be a fairly well respected economist with a night you know about things generally you would rely on some sort of set of data not some sort of point made by a random professor that you choose to believe i mean if these numbers are incorrect why isn't the i.m.f. the world bank and everybody else saying that this isn't true all right gentlemen this could go on for for some time let's leave the trade a war issue there and move on to human rights if we can and i see that john pierre in hong kong that perhaps wants to intervene here. on the issue of human rights
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last month that the chinese government issued a white paper on its progress in the field of human rights in the past 70 years but really what progress has a been on the human rights fund for china in the last 70 s. . ok well my 1st remark will be to say that there the big difference between the 1st 30 years of the chinese companies regime in the last 40 years in your 1st 30 years the human rises the situation as you know it is there are a lot because of all that on 1st of all where you took your children maybe 10000000 chinese accusing them of being controversial reasons and then you decided to launch the great leap forward 40000000 there and then the culture of all this and which caused the death of many more people and the and destroy the lives of many families in china since the terms are being long to reforms in china the situation of human
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rights has improved social economic rise have improved much better than political rights and the big issue today is that china is sort of sticking to a very soviet type of approach to human rights saying that. sort of wise are more important political and civic rights which is of course true right and the problem today is whether china can respect human rights the way the you know the financial community understands human rights meaning that you have you need both economy wise but also political wives and aside china is concerned it is clear that they see a long way to go for china to fulfill those words and i don't think that as long as you have a one party system in china it will be possible for china to accept having people who criticize the one party system and we want to form another political party to to to move towards another political system ok so all as long as you have that
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system those open will be suppressed and repress gordon let me bring you in on this question of human rights. says there has been some progress but there is still a long way to go your thoughts. well there was progress starting with dung shouting but under siege and think there's been a reversal so for instance we've seen those concentration like camps singe on in the northwest part of the country and perhaps in tibet as well where you have you know somewhere between 1.3 and 3000000 people in facilities that remind us of the 3rd reich before the xmas mass exterminations also you have the social credit system that is being put in place with consequences for people who are considered to be unfriendly or unreliable so we're going back to a totalitarian system in china it's you know at 1st was slow but is starting to pick up and so i think that if you're going to talk about phases there should be
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the 3rd phase which is really a return to something that people just don't like gentlemen we're going to have to leave it there unfortunately we've run out of time thank you so much for taking part in this discussion a not time game john p. a cab stand and gordon chang and thank you as well for watching you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website at al-jazeera dot com for further discussion go to our facebook page facebook dot com for slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation of course on twitter our handle is that a dating site selling for me 30 back to one whole team thank you for watching i think .
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this is a dialogue let you decide not to have children and it's what the stake is really human survival everyone has a voice that must start with our community because of course this is a debate and it's a he did want it to do a little be patient literally be able to do a page and ideally join the global conversation with people i think if only they knew what is happening to we were muslims they will be with us and they will be outraged on how to 0. 0 where every. new yorkers are very receptive. because it is such an international city they are
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very interested in that global perspective vives. the top stories on al-jazeera for the 1st time in the months of unrest in hong kong police have shot a protest or would live ammunition leaving him in a critical condition the incident on the large scale protests in the city overshadow the 70th anniversary of the people's republic of china a day when the communist leadership wanted to present its best face to the world a german brown reports from hong kong. the police it wounded choose day would be very dangerous it was the pitched battles carried on into the night with protestors define.

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