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tv   Counting the Cost 2019 Ep 51  Al Jazeera  December 24, 2019 8:32am-9:01am +03

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that architect of one critic say. the government's anti muslim policies the u.n. secretary general is calling for an immediate truce in northern syria government forces are pushing deeper into the last rebel stronghold and if you live dozens of civilians have been killed and tens of thousands displaced in recent weeks. in another part of northern syria at least 8 civilians have been killed by a car bomb that happened in so long a time turkish backed fighters took from kurdish forces in october. china's premier says the leaders of japan and south korea have agreed to cooperate on north korea they've gathered at a summit in chengdu it's a rare agreement between seoul and tokyo after months of worsening relations. you are right up to speed with all the top stories up next here on al-jazeera counting the cost of a summary for you in 30 minutes. leak stories generally found some headlines with different angles from different perspectives separate the spin from the facts
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. with the listening post on al-jazeera. oh i'm adrian finnegan this is counting the cost of al-jazeera a weekly look at the world of business and economics this week a special program for you from the doha forum here in castle will discuss the future of investments in emerging markets since the 1990 s. globalization has given the impression that a virgin markets were and could converged with developed nations the brics and next 11 became the latest investment craze hundreds of millions were lifted out of poverty and millions more climbed the social escalator into the middle class but something has gone wrong the end of the commodity supercycle and easy money came along before populism and the threat to globalization but it could be argued that
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most emerging market growth has been attributable to china and india. so let's dissect what countries really want from globalization and more importantly foreign direct investment our panel here at the whole forum is at the cutting edge of policy making joining me and i'm sure gets out as executive director of the international trade center what i mean the chief executive of hepzibah rather ali our lead out party is the chief executive of the investment promotion agency here in qatar and i was lehmann is the regional director for the g.c.c. at the world bank welcome to you all thank you for joining us today. i want to start with what could only be described as a threat to globalization this trade war between the united states and china presidents president trumps threats to our penned the post-war liberal order including attacks on allies and institutions like the world trade organization
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foreign direct investment into emerging markets as a whole fell last year to its lowest level since the 1990 s. according to the international institute rather for international finance and that populist call from trump for companies to repatriate money and reassure production back to the u.s. appears to have resonated i want to get your thoughts in particular on that but ali let's start with you we can you had a up an agency that's that's looking for investors what sort of investors are you looking for and why i think i mean the general trends in terms of protectionism populism. and it's always been negatively correlated towards investment and trade investment it is a very closely interlinked any destruction in the global trading or doing in the rules based multilateral system would lead to a negative impact towards f.d.a. inflows and we are seeing this now especially with regards to emerging economies now what this has led us to kind of rework or rethink is what are really really. be
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looking for in terms of attracting if the ai what kind of f.b.i. should we be aiming for and this is the question i think that has some clarity on the sentry looking for quantities in terms of really looking for quality f.b.i. and by quality i would mean transfer of knowledge and looking for skills talent and i think i have a lot to offer in terms of its own value proposition and i think many developing countries especially some at this stage of the cycle are reworking this question and rethinking it and trying to find how investment could play a role in terms of leave it in poverty and it using sustainable development thank you. there's no doubt that the middle east peace lessen its dependence upon hydrocarbons. and it's pretty easy to say that but how on earth do you go about it would you advise me for
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a system to float catalog us. thank you very and thank you for a very simple and easy question actually. but let me let me say a little bit few things you know you put the big picture out there for has been happening in the world in terms of f.b.i. and drew i mean the f.b.i. has been going down over the last few years and it's almost half what it used to be 4 years ago but the g.c.c. in general has bought this thing actually the g.c.c. f.b.i. has been going up especially in 4 countries out of the 6 country in the g.c.c. and one thing that qatar is doing and also the rest of the g.c.c. is doing is that they are working on the essential which are like how to get their investment in and how to transform their economies and if you look at their vision and transformation plan or development plan most all of them actually have the diversification as the main driver of where they want to head into the future so
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while the hydrocarbon has provided a lot of growth in the future they all know basically that this is not where they need to go from here on and a lot of things are being done and there is a shift as has mentioned opening up the economy and bringing investor but investors and not the traditional way not and into the hydrocarbon but investors that can really help them develop that economy well that is foreign direct investment because 2 i really want. allison in the middle east or do or anybody in my market for that matter. do they not have a tendency to crowd out local startups for a tech company like ours where you see hyper growth when you talk about investments either making investments or taking a resinous you look certain things which are mainly not just capital it's much more how do you get more from these synergies that you might also add on top if there is
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a. markets you are considering also you look for if there is a talent pool or if there is a regulatory framework that can help you and encourage for innovation so those things are very crucial to be found you look for taking or making investments and 4 hours for our case in this case we are really like the leading e-commerce platform in the region but we are you know when i go global i mentioned i would ask you the same question but from a different angle ok so i get a cheaper right with with but but the drivers up poorer for it. i mean there isn't a driver anywhere in the world that would say that making more money than making a better living working for ruger is. the back of your question what's happening with foreign direct investment and i'm afraid that we are for the long term we're going to see a continuous decline in 4 in the reg investment because there are 5 structural
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factors that are pushing it downwards 1st this tractor all factor is geopolitical tensions this is not going to be resolved anytime soon this is a long term issue that chills flooring direct investment number 2 the digital economy that is changing the way companies are deciding where to locate that has a big impact on how we're going to be taxing need regulating it again chilling factor on foreign direct investment number 3 the fact that the recent no system of global governance for investment it's getting fragmented countries are doing this at the national other regional level best. number 4 the fact that there is more and more security screening of investments and this is a general trend $2.00 and $5.00 and final one their fact that we are much more looking into responsible business conduct that again is leading to probably
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less investment but maybe it's leading to what eileen was mentioning is an important fact of. looking more at the quality of the investment and this is where i want to think with the question you're asking maybe it's not all that bad that foreign direct investment is on a downward trend if the investment that is coming we're looking more at the quality of this investment and if we start to leverage more domestic investment which also many countries are sitting on but they are not leveraging enough. shake out he did what incentives a un able to offer companies coming to set up shop here are you concerned that ultimately you're going to create jobs. but the profits are going to leave the country. you surely want to create a circular economy that benefits the nation. well i mean let me take kind of step
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back because we were talking a bit about the commodities supercycle and i think this is one of the structural issues that is facing since you know we see nonoy in gas g.d.p. growth far. accelerating far more much more than oil and gas g.d.p. growth but we see then for inverse in terms of if the inflows were if there even inflows are the majority of which is in the oil and gas sector and the minorities in the northern gulf and how do you how could we fix this and specially how do we use incentives to kind of reinvigorate the annoying. thing that government over the past 2 years has embarked on a liberalization program we had number 12019 liberalizing all sectors 200 percent foreign investment we had the free zones authority stablished allows 100 percent for investment and tax holiday of up to 25 years. and other platforms such
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as lot of financial center die pay has been recently established as well to help coordinate and promote other investment destination and i think i mean generally the main drive has been in this direction and really think that all these initiatives. in addition to incentives could provide look at the of value proposition and more specifically in terms of attracting high skilled labor attracting talent and not only attracting them but wreaking them and this is the tricky question i think that most countries especially developing countries are looking to answer i know companies are on. social not for profit organizations is it not rather unedifying when you have emerging nations cup. p.t. for the same dollars for growth the idea is still is the single most important source of financing for development around the world so there's nothing
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bigger than that i mean even when you combine all the flaws of developing funding that goes into it doesn't it doesn't pay does ok so it is important now does it mean that it was all what's going on in the world today that there's going to be a trend going forward it's very hard to predict because there is a disruption taking place today. on a lot of different fronts and i russia has mentioned sure them but i'm going to go a little bit to the other side which is what murat alluded to i mean the digital economy and you know what's happening in artificial intelligence what's happening in internet of things what's happening basically in the 5 g. and into the connectivity that this is going to be providing is going to be basically developing a new type of services and industries and training and type of. of workforce that we might not have seen over the last 34 decades so what we learn when the world
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bank introduced its report on the future of jobs it was very clear that the future of jobs might be very different of what has happened over the last 2 sleep decades and what will differentiate countries is not basically if they only can do like the ease of business and reduce barrier and so on but it has to do was cost it has to do with what type of value proposition this country is going to be providing and we are going to see differentiation between those who are going to see countries that will be able to adapt and move and prepare their use and prepare their workforce basically wolf 2 for what's happening in the future i tried to join to come back and see you nodding vigorously that yes i make the game the old game was basically incentive. stu attract investment which basically you know sometimes with incentives that were not clear whether the deal was about clearing somebody
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because of the incentive or because it had a good value proposition whereas the future looks very different the future looks skills and eco systems and the investor will not need an incentive if you have a good value proposition to offer in the form of a serious psychosis and where i very much agree with the money the human capital so the game is changing so what i think what's important to understand is that it's not enough to look at way that if their figures are telling us that investment is going down it's important to back what's behind this which is in my view the game we should be embarking on which is qualities of the investment rather than just simply looking at the quantities of the investment. to do want to come in on that yeah i said i pretty much agree on the human capital idea because you know what if you just go back internet has been with us around for 30 years and half of the global population is below 30 years old so if you just make
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a quick math you can see half of the global population actually was born she internet world so when we see the future but should definitely keep in mind the future economy will be shaped by you know asian technology and entrepreneurship so i certainly believe that the human capital is a shield the core of this future growth and when we hear also mentioned that all these upcoming technologies we are going to redefine the business model and economic model as well so i think for us to consider. investments or very going to look at our companies in the individual be different they're going to focus number one on the human capital can be tracked elland can retain talent like you said and also it can be also develop feature ideas from this community because there's the crucial part of to sustainable growth. check i want to i want to move
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on to infrastructure now when when money is no object. the last 25 years for us is have transformed this country cattle i know it's not quite money money the object or don't get me wrong but but when money is particularly tight. emerging markets with we're talking of here where do they turn how do they transform their societies in the way that cattle house down. south to south and investment and trade within emerging economies. that could mean help achieve some of the goals that company countries which might not have the same resources that probably have up our benefits from. india could gain a lot from it now i think the question is. the real issue and iran kind of touched on this as with regards to centers liberalizing and it's always
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a moving baseline. and this could easily lead to kind of a slippery slope like race to the bottom which is what i think all of us try to avoid so we need to really look at what industries are fragile what needs to be protected and what really needs to be grown and in a sustainable way that i think that is the main way that emerging economies and developing countries could seek to achieve their their goals. surely mention south to south westerly here's a pic when it would would you would you put yourself in that bracket i think differently emerging the developing markets they can collaborate because i think the simple idea actually is can you create one plus $15.00 or 10 or a 100 that's the new technology so when we look at all these opportunities what we look at are actually do we have capabilities in synergies that we combine those
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together and create a value that is going to be actually unique value proposition for a sustainable time that's what we're looking for so it's a should it could be from an emerging market emerging market it could be from a top market i think the core idea is to create this unique you value proposition so that's what we are looking into e-commerce i think you are really trying to examples like what we are looking for now e-commerce actually is cross borders do snore. boundaries right so we can sell the goods in digital and physical goods across the border so what we're looking now is in order to make this global and access to billions of people around the world you need to focus on a logistics operations data technology in the debt so all those things actually turn come from anywhere so it's not it doesn't make actually right it's not shouldn't limit ourselves just looking at certain ages joke refuse or markers we should think broader because we should we can see so many senior juice from so many
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different geographies all these capabilities coming together you can create a global success story that's what i believe that is the often heard complaint is we need to build a road from from this portrait to the city the world bank says it can't help i was really surprised that the emerging nations turn to china for help well. no because basically there's no surprise it's not only china who's had been in the developing world qatar here is another example i mean the emir this morning said how much basically qatar as small nation is putting in developing the g.c.c. in general also and some other countries around the world and also so china like england like a lot of other type of of countries who are interested in development they are putting this but let me just go one step back and say a couple of things you know i mean can economy transform itself yes and i'm going
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to i'm going to go was a humble example of course that eco costa rica biskit transformed itself without any resources like what the g.c.c. has they used to export bananas mainly ok now they export chips and medical equipment and this was in a very short period of time relatively speaking in any period of emission and how they did it basically they did it be by getting what i just mentioned before so a good strategy for investment at acting intel 1st to be to be due to be able to go to manufacture the chips then creating there are in the out of intel and from there basically had spillover around for a lot of different small and medium enterprises but also basic into like other stuff that they were able to so yes in asian countries on itself i mean we have small nation as well as big nation like australia or norway i mean more is not very big but the who are based on on also like minerals and hydrocarbons and they were
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able to diversify their economies taking in the right strategy putting in the right ecosystem and creating basically the value proposition and human capital that was basically to develop that but entre how do you ensure that the money that is coming in through for the right investment is going to the right sort of places i mean there are downsides to it and i'm talking about money that is that is basically going into the banking system is going into the stocks and bonds. and that's not productive money is it leads to mclean or offer to crisis yeah and i want to get to that. because on the previous question which was this south south i mentioned we are in a forum discussing multilateralism. and one of the areas where there's more people larry the is the starkest is in trade and investment if i look 30 years back 70 percent of international trade was north with the north 20 percent was north with
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the south and south south was 10 percent this is only 3040 years ago today is one 3rd one 3rd one for the same story with investment who is pushing for governance on investment today in the world trade organization is not the america is not the e.u. it's developing countries is the south who have huge interests in making sure that conditions of accessing other developing countries are also clear and transparent it's a negotiation that is. by go along by china by qatar who want to make sure that there is a bit of a better transparency over investment regimes in other countries so i think this is an area we should not be neglecting this there is a big game that is called south south also on the investment space now in all of these at the end of the day what matters is back to the quality of the investment
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where is this investment going and i think we are not doing enough of a good job countries are not doing enough of a good job not only on tracking how much investment they attract but what is happening with the investment they track. sorry the i trucked what is the tracking what k b i's is ali going to use to measure the investment that is capable of a drachten here in qatar and what are the k.p.a. is that the countries we are investing are going to use to demonstrate that this is going into their productive economy is not going to see dido and just produce returns for they have been few shareholders so there is a big discussion to we had on quality and tracking of the quality of the investment with better matrix that up until now frankly we have not been very good at. this time how do you advise emerging market nations with how to cope with an influx of investment. on issues like. aggressive
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tax avoidance that that sort of thing we hope that there is this aggressive f.b.i. going everywhere it's not it's not the case which is which is unfortunate however there is there is basically. a basic basic advice which is you want to attract f.b.i. to improve the standard and quality of living of your people create jobs upgrade your economy and make sure basically that whatever industry you have inside also can either benefit or you have new new companies that move in to that space too and with the spillover of what what's coming in you're a couple of things basically that some of the studies have showed that for example coming into mining or agree culture does not have a lot of effect on on creating more jobs or
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a or spillover into into society versus other type of industry and. one of the of the main advice that you give is that ok well you need to open your economy so 1st they can come in you need to create the ecosystem not only basically to have the least raid that you have basically to export what you have i mean and here export is not when i say x. was not in the traditional sense of export it's not like physical good anymore only it's a physical good and probably digital goods and and basically making sure that this is happening and making sure that there is in upgrading of whoever is already functioning in that turkey was a good example when they opened their economy for foreign investors to come in it had them basically upgrade all that industry inside they became very competitive bringing in more technology in the country and they had to survive internally you had to do that and there semi's internally also it able basically to to have the spillover so for us that it's not like one advice that you give it's basically
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a whole ecosystem that used to be done but the most important part of it is that the country would need to look at its own value proposition and how it's gonna this f.b.i. is going to help improve the standard of living if of its own. people and that's our show for this week if you'd like to comment on anything you've seen you can tweet me i've got a figure on twitter please use the hash tag a.j. c.t.c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost of al-jazeera dot that is our e-mail address as always there's plenty more for you online at our website al-jazeera dot com slash c.t.c. that takes you straight to a page a day you'll find at the vigil reports links even entire episodes for you to catch up on but that's it for this edition of counting the cost of a very very good oha thanks for being with us but news of al-jazeera is.
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