tv Election Night in America BBC News November 8, 2016 11:15pm-6:01am GMT
it is over. it is over, by it is over. by this it is over, by this stage, may know it is over. by this stage, that republicans were only getting their obvious states by this time four years ago. we put them in the columns by the washington monument and you can see how close obama was by this stage in the evening to the crucial figure of 270. what took over? let's have a look. three minutes later, the state of ohio comes in. there it is with its 18 electoral college votes. watch line now. it is over and obama wins in 2012. will that happen tonight? we may have steer as to the result by say 2am. m. , we may know. may know. , we may know. by six, we should be certain -- format. unless it is very close. buyer of first-tier as gavin hewitt. donald trump is expected to come here to the
ballroom in central manhattan. if he wins, that will shake up america and also shakeup the international community. donald trump's lawyers have been on red alert for any kind of irreqularity. they have already filed suit in nevada. donald trump has been talking about suspicious moments that might be happening in certain polling areas. earlier today, he made this rather interesting comment, stating, hopefully we will win but let's see how things will play out. 1 win but let's see how things will play out. i want everything honest. they are not prepared to commit to accepting the outcome of this selection. if he loses, he says, they will conclude that it will be a waste of money and energy. as regards the mood, they continue to els regards the mood, they continue to talk about brexit. they have been encouraged by some of the strong turnout in battleground states and some of those supporters
who donald trump hasn't boozed, they believe they have turned out in great numbers at the polls. they are encouraged here but let's see how things turn out during the evening. jon sopel is that hillary clinton's headquarters. i would love to use the word confidence but on the day of an election, it's all about nervous anxiety, stress, chewing your fingernails, chewing the rim of the polystyrene copy cuppa. are you doing everything you can? hillary clinton will be on the roster of iraq did behind me and she has got td iraq did behind me and she has got to speeches prepared. . she hopes she will deliver a victory speech. she hopes she will deliver a victory speech. (th) she will deliver a victory speech. on saturday and monday, they kind of ranked 30 million different people, knocked on 8 million doors. that shows a party machine that is pretty well organised. whether that convinces people to
go on is another question. what they are to do is make sure that every car that is meant to go pick up an elderly or disabled person is on its way there. they got all their lists in order and are doing everything they can. maybe then they will feel a more confident. now it is time for me to hand over to our special we are in new york, as the land of the free chooses its destiny. join us for every bitter twist and turn on election to remember. -- of an election night to remember. don't (ge election night to remember. don't let anyone tell you we don't have what it takes. we do. we are going to build a great border wall. tonight, we've reached a milestone in our nation's
march to a democratic union. we will make america great again. good evening. welcome to times square in the heart of new york. of new york. welcome to times square in the heart of new york. our home for history in the making. there has never been a us presidential campaign quite like it, long, bitter, divisive, full of vitriol, even hatred, sometimes vicious, always tumultuous and unpredictable, a titanic struggle which will be resolved tonight for the most glittering prize in american politics. the two people who would be president even managed up the pace and rhetoric in the last day, campaigning into the wee small hours of tuesday morning. hillary clinton started her final swing in pittsburgh, pennsylvania, and returned to philadelphia, pennsylvania last
night, underlying lp that north-eastern state is to other groups of winning the white house. in between, she visited michelin, another rust belt state she wanted to shore up, and she finished with a midnight rally in raleigh, north carolina, a toss-up state she has fought hard to win. tonight, she is in manhattan and she will soon be heading for a huge rally at the jacob k javits convention centre on 34th st, a few blocks away from us on the west side. donald trump started his day early in florida, that swing state of swing states. what he has to win td of swing states. what he has to win to secure the white house. has to win to secure the white house. what he has to win to secure the white house. he then took to michigan and pennsylvania, democratic states he thinks his appeal to blue-collar workers can turn republican. then north carolina, of course, and finishing flg carolina, of course, and finishing (florere carolina, of course, and finishing late last night in new hampshire, the only new england state he has hopes of winning. now he is here in manhattan,
too, just a few blocks up the road, and his campaign headquarters are in the massive new york hilton. in recent weeks, americans turned out in unprecedented numbers to vote early in this election, but that was as nothing impaired with the tens of millions more who started queueing from before dawn this morning to cast their votes across this huge nation, in an election which will have profound consequences for them and the rest of us. throughout our extensive coverage of the results, we will be joined by a distinguished panel of experts to help us analyse the results as they come in. we will introduce them as we go along. first, a word to my co-presenter, world news america's katty kay. you have covered four presidential elections
and you have been everywhere in this campaign. what are your thoughts now? i have never seen a campaign like this, long and bitter, with two candidates who are deeply unpopular and have almost shakespearean character flaws, but almost more than hillary clinton and donald trump themselves it's what this campaign has shown me about the state of this country. america is changing at lightning speed. it is changing economically, culturally and it is changing demographically, and perhaps that is the most important. the backdrop to this saga, this drama of the presidential election is that united states is on the doorstep of becoming a majority non-white country and, in these changes, some people are winning but others are losing, and they are the people that have been drawn to donald trump. 1 should say, as i have travelled around during this campaign, overwhelmingly the supporters
of donald trump that i have met have been decent, hard-working, thoughtful americans who 00:08:05,1000 --> 00:08:08,033 have often said to me that they don't like what he says about immigrants, women and muslims, but they are so desperate that they are going to take a role of the dice, and they are doing that tonight. we will see if their candidate wins or, after having sent 44 men to be top job, america elects finally a woman as its president. the stakes either way are enormous. i haven't seen anything like it. many of these things we will come back to, as the results start coming back to, as the results start coming the first states close their polls in just over 35 minutes. let's go now to the clinton headquarters where the bbc's jon sopel is. tell us the mood at clinton hq. well, the mood, i think, has changed palpably over the past two or three days. three days ago, sort of tetchy,
tents, they hadn't had the latest letter from the fbi, then they got the letter from the fbi saying that no further action would be taken. that seemed to coincide with polls showing a slight widening of the clinton lead, whether that was in nationwide, battle ground or tracker polls, it all seemed to point in one direction generally speaking, a slight clinton lead. today, 1 slight clinton lead. today, i think that any sense of confidence they had is replaced by that sheer nervous anxiety on the day of an election. are you getting out the vote? is every car going to pick up every pensioner and disabled person that need it? have you got all of your block captains going down every particular block and making sure that the people who said they would vote have voted? to pick up where katty left of, the changing demographics of the country, donald trump made a big play about talking about how he would rewrite the electoral map, bring
people back into the political process and it seemed had got lost. a waking giant has awoken and it seems to be the latino community, who seem to have come out in record numbers in early voting states. it's worth saying that probably a third of americans have already voted before today's polling stations opened. that is where the clinton camp have cause for optimism, but i think that at this stage it is getting out the vote, checking everything down to the last detail, that you are doing all that you can do. jon will be with us or mike at the clinton campaign headquarters. laura trevelyan is a few blocks away at the hilton hotel, with the trump headquarters. jon describing a mood of cautious optimism in the clinton campaign, laura, so what is the mood at the trump headquarters? i should say that the media are currently outnumbering trump supporters.
they are beginning to trickle in, just a handful are here right now. people are confused by what they see as a big turnout across the country. -- confused. remember, the hopes of the trot campaign resting on bringing back missing white voters, people who are registered to vote but have not turned out for whatever reason. trump desperately hoping he can take those states in the upper midwest, michelin, wisconsin, that these states will come home, that they will go for him. we are also seeing signs of some unhappiness in the republican campaign. we have just heard their campaign manager, kelly and conway, complaining on television that the lack of support from the republican infrastructure for donald trump, a tacit acknowledgement that hillary clinton at a better democratic get the vote out machine.
donald trump is a few blocks away at trump tower, watching the results on television, he tweeted. he was asked today in an interview whether he would accept the result and he said he'd have to look at what was happening, and he said there had been reports of voting irreqularities, when people voting for republicans and the entire ticket turning over to democrat. he is obviously reserving the right to challenge a result if it doesn't go the he wants. thanks, laura, at the trump headquarters at the new york hilton, right in the centre of manhattan. in just over half an hour, some of the states on the east coast of america will begin td the east coast of america will begin to close. the speculation will end. the results will start to come in. when that happens, there is a magic number we need to keep in mind tonight. that number is 270. you don't become president of the united states
by winning the most votes across america. that would be too simple. after all, al gore got more moh simple. after all, al gore got more votes than george bush in 2000 but tule votes than george bush in 2000 but mr bush got the white house. you become president i winning -- by winning 270 votes in the electoral college. confused? don't be. here is jeremy vine. i have just had a tweet from somebody saying, can you run the electoral college cost me one more time? we can explain it has many times as you like. here is the map of the usa, 50 states. there are 538 electoral college votes and you have to win 270 or more to become president. you need a majority of them. it will be helpful if i show you the vote of the last election in 2012, when mitt romney, the republican, in red, was beaten, in his second collection, by barack obama, in blue. so each state has a
certain fixed number of electoral college votes. a state like montana up here, with not many people, only has three. california has a huge number, 55, there are 38 million people there. you win i winning the states will stop when you win in a state, you get all of the electoral college votes from that stage. there are only two technical exceptions made in nebraska. you win a state and you get all of the electoral college votes there. what is interesting is that last time, mitt romney wasn't that far behind barack obama in terms of the actual weight of the votes across the nation. obama got 51% look the result. in the electoral college, he was basically 60-40, his advantage in the electoral college, because he piled his vote up in areas where there were the most precious electoral college votes, areas of the greatest
population. if we look at the list of states, we will see the state with the highest number of electoral college votes. you have got classically california, 55, texas, reliably republican, 38, and down the list we go. in a funny way, that isn't our focus through the night. some of these states, like california, are almost sewn up before the election has started. it would be almost unthinkable for california to do anything but democrat. let me change these flashing states to the most tightly contested ones. this is where the heat of battle really is. now you see the electoral college votes assigned to the states most in play at this election. most are blue, because we have coloured them in with the colour of the party who won it last time, so trump needs to win at least half. an awful lot of them are in the midwest,
the great lakes region, places that are, some of them, predominantly white. that should help trump. a lot of people are hurting the cost of the recession in the 2000s. a different story in north carolina, virginia, where there are increasing ethnic minority populations, lots more college graduates who are working, younger workers, the character is changing. this is partly an election describing a new america to us. florida, 29 electoral college votes, pivotal in 2000 when georgie -- george bush junior won the presidency. florida changing, too, its white population only just above 50% now. these are where the battles will be fought tonight. we will be watching so carefully in the midwest, down the east coast, here midwest, down the east coast, here in the west as
well, to see whether those blue states are turning they will need to four trump to emerge as the victor by the end of the night. so how will we know who has won each state as the polls close? our american sister network, abc news, is just across time square, and we have a bbc team embedded in their results room. as each state closes its polls, they will look at the exit polls and the early declared results. you can see their studio where they will be doing their election coverage. that is where the embedded team are. this is in times square, manhattan. it is the city to be in tonight for these results. in s be in tonight for these results. in re clinton's here, donald trump is here, the american networks are here, katty kay is here. it is only right that the bbc should
we care as well. when they are sure at abc news that there is a clear result in each of the states, they will predict the winner and we will bring that to you. it's what's called projecting a state. a veteran of those nights is here. do you ever actually get round to counting the votes? we have sophisticated models of what the results are, but sometimes they are wrong. we look at votes by critical areas from the past. they look at the numbers of votes coming look at the numbers of votes coming they are able to use the exit polls as a bit of a check. generally, they can get a good handle on it. but we will not see results given until they are pretty sure. and if we get results very soon after a poll closes, we will have a good idea. that is where we will be
looking early on at florida, where the polls close at eight. if we get a result soon after, that will tell us a lot. andrew, we will bring you the analysis from left and right during the course of the evening. we will also bring you news as it comes in. a spokesman for former president george w bush has confirmed that he and his wife have voted today, but they didn't vote for donald trump and they didn't vote for hillary clinton. that gives you the backdrop to this election, how extraordinary is that, that the eb how extraordinary is that, that the last republican president did not vote for the republican candidate for the presidency today? wow. it's unprecedented. just to reiterate what norm ornstein was saying, when we say to you that it is too early td we say to you that it is too early to call a state, for example florida, which all eyes are on, that doesn't mean that it's really close and we don't yet know. it could be broader than that, but
we need to be sure before we can call it. that is why we will wait until the exit poll and the early numbers match up. let's speak now to the first of our two distinguished quests tonight. michelle bernard is an independent political strategist, but voted for hillary clinton. job raleigh is a campaigner. michelle, why has this been such a difficult election for hillary clinton? the amount of animosity against hillary clinton as ej animosity against hillary clinton as a person is a phenomenon we are not accustomed to seeing. there was a backlash against hillary clinton from people who dislike her husband. and he was popular as a president. he was, but for example from the african-american community, there is anger over bill clinton's crime bill that he passed.
we are seeing a large number of african-american men incarcerated as a result of that crime bill. language that hillary clinton used in the past referred to african-american men as super predators. there are people of a certain age group who just believe that they woman should not be president. that might explain why there is a big chunk of the african-american community who doesn't like her, although you and i both know they will vote for her overwhelmingly. but the dislike of hillary clinton is far broader than that. if it was just for these reasons, she wouldn't be struggling by reasons, she wouldn't be struggling so much. why the broader dislike? believe it falls into so many categories, but the largest amount of dislike we see from hillary clinton is the fact that people ball clinton is the fact that people still expect women in politics to behave a certain way, and there is a sort of coarseness to hillary clinton.
people want to see through the veil, feel who she is. in 2008, there was an instance when she cried there was an instance when she cried in new hampshire and her popularity ratings we are still [ete:tele] hale) ratings escalated. we are still grappling with how americans view women in the highest echelons of power. let me put that same question to you, joe. i have covered eight political conventions in this country. 1 political conventions in this country. i was in cleveland for the republican convention. cleveland for the republican convention. i was in cleveland for the republican convention. 1 have never been to a convention where the hatred of the opposing candidate was so hatred of the opposing candidate was so visceral. why do you think republicans and trump supporters hate hillary clinton so much? republicans and trump supporters hate hillary clinton so much?! would say it is even beyond republicans and trump supporters. a big chunk of the population is unhappy with hillary clinton. and it is not because she is a woman. the republican party have sarah palin run as their vice presidential nominee eight years ago. it is because the clintons themselves have
walked this narrow line between ethics and scandals for the better part of 40 years. people have been ingrained with this history of this couple, whether it is the foundation of couple, whether it is the foundation or benghazi, the list goes on in perpetuity. a lot of the american public is fed up with the quintessential insiders of all insiders in a year that has been eluls insiders in a year that has been framed as the insiders versus the outsiders. if we said that is true for the sake of argument, would it not have made more sense for mr trump to try to broaden his appeal? if he was up against such and popular candidate, would it not have made more sense to broaden his appeal and not make himself an enemy of hispanics, an enemy of the black vote or an enemy of women and really reduce his core constituency to white , reduce his core constituency to white, blue-collar workers? that is ej white, blue-collar workers? that is a fundamental mistake of the campaign and we will see
in the next two hours whether or not he gained the support of enough hispanics to narrow the gap to the bush numbers. he will not get what mr bush got. he would be lucky to get what mr romney got. if he gets what mr romney got, he will win the election. hat mr romney got, he will win the election. it is wanting to say there is an issue with immigration in this country. this is not the only country having this debate about immigration. it is another thing to phrase it the way he did, and probably served to alienate a chunk of hispanics. obviously, did, we can see that from the exit poll. i have been to trump rallies and there are a people who turn up who feel that mr trump can give them a better deal. what do you think he has tapped into? what is he offering those voters, in tangible terms, that will make them feel that their life will get better if we have a president trump? the message has
been great from the beginning. it is the make america great again, but it appeals to the heart of a disenfranchised electorate that cgb disenfranchised electorate that feels there are two macca sets of rules. there is the rule that the washington elites play, the rule that the business elites play, and they feel left out. if you are someone from anywhere between the midwest, you feel fundamentally left out of the election process. it is amazing that someone who is a billionaire and who is as bombastic and gold-plated as donald trump could talk to a working class american better than people whose job it was as politicians to communicate with them. nixon used to say, keep your eye on illinois. the way it goes is the way america goes, ej way it goes is the way america goes, a quintessential middle american town. there are lots of towns like that in ohio
as well, another rust belt state, one of the swing states, one of the states that mr trump has td one of the states that mr trump has to win tonight to keep his chances of getting into the white house alive. barbara plett usher is in cleveland, ohio. ohio has had a lot of attention in this campaign and i quess we are all going to be watching what happens there this evening? yes, ohio is interesting because it has pockets of strong traditional democratic support and pockets of strong republican support, which is why it is a swing state. it also has a reputation for voting for the man or woman who wins will start since 1964, it has picked the president. so there is a lot of attention here. the camp campaign is feeling bullish, because he has been consistently ahead in the polls throughout the last couple of weeks throughout the last couple of weeks -- the trump campaign is feeling they feel he could pick up ej bullish. they feel he could pick up elle bullish. they feel he could pick up ellas bullish. they feel he could pick up a lot of those angry white working class votes.
a lot of those white working class people are in the democratic camp and they feel they might be able to win those over and tipped the scales. the democrats would say the unions who have traditionally backed them are still backing mrs clinton. but there is unease amongst the union membership. having said that, mr trump has had a very antagonistic relationship with the republican leadership in this state. the committee, the governor, even the man running for senate, who is a republican. so there is a division between his campaign and traditional republicans. there are fie traditional republicans. there are also republicans who benefited from president obama's economy. will they support mrs clinton? she's hoping they will, but they may not. so there is a lot at
play and as you say, mr trump has to win the state. he seems to be doing the best in polling here out of all his swing states, so his campaigners are hoping that pays off for them. barbara plett usher, in cleveland, ohio. in the old steel area of ohio, ohio. in the old steel area of ohio, i met a steelworker who had voted democrat his whole life, a union member, who changed party registration this year to vote for donald trump. for me, that was so telling about the way this campaign is going and the state of the country. these are what we disparagingly called the rust belt states around the midwest and the great lakes, traditional democratic territory, highly unionised, lots of blue-collar workers. donald trump's appeal to them has brought them into contention. let me elaborate on a few
things from the exit polls. we have latino decisions and an in-depth exit poll of latino voters. 18% for camp, a new low. white educated women are going for clinton, which is a dramatic break from the past. and a poll from wisconsin is particularly interesting, which is an even more dramatic educated brick. the educated in wisconsin are going for clinton by a larger margin than they have ever seen for a democrat. the less college-educated voters are going for camp by a larger margin. we have different divisions in this election and different numbers. and it looks like we will see 70% of the electorate this time be white, down 2% from the last time. inexorably, we are seeing them exchange and getting back to what joe
said, it may prove to be a really big mistake for trump to have moved away from some of those groups of voters that are going, and focused on those that have not. the republicans have wanted to be inclusive, but it has not happened this time around. women are critical and this is the first election that might put a woman into the white house. rajini vaidyanathan is in miami for us in another key state, and you have been speaking to women voters down there. yes, i have spent quite a bit of time in florida throughout this campaign, as have both of the candidates. on my travels, i have found a straight split down the middle between donald trump and hillary clinton. that is something that is reflected in the opinion polls here. sober for both the clinton campaign and the trump campaign, it has been about getting the base out, and driving turn up.
1 am joined by two quests now. there has been early voting here in florida, more than 6 million ballots cast. when we look at those, there has been a record turnout amongst the hispanic population. what has driven this? donald trump has driven this. he started his campaign referring to mexicans as rapists and murderers, and that put the focus on this anti-immigration rhetoric. so many latinos feel fear in this campaign. if trump wins, will he build a wall, as he has promised? , will he build a wall, as he has promised? will he deport 11 million immigrants? latinos feel that this time, their vote matters. l that this time, their vote matters. that is why we have seen the large numbers why we have seen the large numbers in early voting and also in the ann, your role has been to drive turnout
amongst women in certain communities. what have you seen in terms of turn up? donald trump. have huge support here, even if it is not in large numbers of the hispanic community. in florida, registered women voters outnumber male registered voters in every demographic, in every age group and demographic, in every age group and in both therefore, if turnout is the question tonight, women will make the difference. a nonpartisan organisation started six months ago to canvas and educate women about 32nd issues that would make a difference in their life - equal pay for equal work, and sexual harassment. we have found great enthusiasm, especially among low-income women who live in some of our poorest four neighbourhoods in miami, and it is surprising. and what do you think is driving this turnout? i think it is a woman candidate. that does not mean hillary clinton
will take this state. i have gone to parts of the state-wide donald trump has huge support, including amongst women. but there is another factor we have seen in our reporting, and that is people who dislike both candidates and might not turn out. even with hispanics, yes, hispanics tend to vote for democrats. 1 hispanics, yes, hispanics tend to vote for democrats. i have interviewed many hispanics who also don't like hillary clinton. there are several reasons for that. they see her as part of the political elite. and also, hispanics tend to say, hillary elite. and also, hispanics tend to eemuitesnls elite. and also, hispanics tend to say, hillary is just going to carry u say, hillary is just going to carry on with obama's legacy. for example, obama promised an immigration reform and didn't deliver. that is a big deal for hispanics, so there is mistrust over both candidates for hispanics and in florida. at the weekend i saw huge lines of african-american voters trying to get to cast their ballots before only voting closed. what impact do you think early voting will
have in florida? this state had the highest number of early votes. almost 40% of our state voted in an extended voting period. we put money into those voting systems and improved it and we have a legacy of having to work hard to vote. this time, that wasn't the case. thank you for joining us. as i said just then, it all boils down to turn out and, of course, some of the voters, like ones i met in hillsborough counter, where tampa is, those ones who said they will make their minds up in the ballot box. we are getting reports coming in that two polling stations coming in that two polling stations in california had to close because four people were taken to hospital following a shooting incident there following a shooting incident there in for st and orange avenue. we are getting reports
from los angeles times and others. we don't know the condition of the people. in fact, we don't know much at all. we will bring more to you as we get it. throughout this campaign, we have heard that hillary clinton is the most unpopular presidential candidate to run ever, since polling began in the early 1940s. the most unpopular, except for donald trump, who is actually the most unpopular, according to polling. so what do americans really make of both candidates? here is jeremy. it comes down to, i think the word we will use is favourability. when you poll people and you say, do you feel favourable or unfavourable and you put the pluses and minuses together, you get a score. we will take a look back at political history to the 1950s and have a look at the favourability figures that were being scored by candidates then. so this
is stephenson against eisenhower, 1956. stevenson lost it, but pretty good favourability ratings, 30% in credit with the voters, even though he lost. let's have a look at some more. quite a standout figure for harry goldwater, on -4%. lyndon johnson, the winner pic on -4%. lyndon johnson, the winner after kennedy's assassination by a big margin. hillary clinton worked on that campaign, the goldwater campaign, so presumably she learnt a lot from that. as we go through, you see a whittling away of these ratings. in the mid-70s, they are ball ratings. in the mid-70s, they are still quite high. he mid-70s, they are still quite high. in the mid-70s, they are still quite high. carter and gerald ford, gerald ford lost in 1976. and gerald ford, gerald ford lost in 1976. carter and gerald ford, gerald ford lost in 1976. but ball ford, gerald ford lost in 1976. but still even be losing candidate gets quite a high favourability score. then look what happened in the modern area.
we go through watergate and all over western democracies political leaders are getting more and more of a focus on themselves. a searchlight is very bright. by the time we get to bush against john kerry, look at this, still very low when you see the last presidential election in 2012 of obama against mitt romney. let me show you something really striking, when we come to the end of this. you can see this whittling away of favourability, politicians in general held in lower esteem. even obama, with all of the hopes that came in behind him, still not breaking clear. have a look at the end of this. they are -11 and -20 eight. as andrew said, yes, hillary clinton is the lowest they have ever been, lower than barry goldwater, but, my goodness, trump is twice as low, and that is stunning. it might partly be about the
modern age, post-watergate, maybe something to do with the clinton white house in the usa, but it is still just exceptional, isn't it, to see it that low, and it explains why there is just a sense so much of real misery around the election and a sense that the candidates be better sense that the candidates be better in so many people let's ask some individual questions of these candidates. so you are asking a question of voters. are they qualified to serve as president? this is material we are getting from exit polls today. ial we are getting from exit polls today. this is exit poll material that is really very fresh. 53% saying that clinton is qualified. 37 for donald trump. now let's put another question to the voters. personality and temperament. again, clinton wins by quite a margin. more than 20%. 56 - 34, so she is ahead again. this one we have to look carefully
at. not honest and trustworthy. you want your score to be low in this one. want your score to be low in this one. trump is again losing in this category, more voters not thinking of him as honest and trustworthy. these are poor scores for both of them. one more is striking, because it is the one that trump wins on by quite a margin. who could bring change? look at that, trump 82% of people saying, yes, he could bring change, and that must surely include ej change, and that must surely include elle change, and that must surely include ellas change, and that must surely include a lot of people who disagree with him and are not voting for him, and people not really believing that hillary clinton can. if there is a change candidate, which is the message that barack obama ran on in 2012, it seems to be resonating with people either voting for or against trump. reading between the lines of this , trump. reading between the lines of this, but this only lines -- goodness only knows. the overall message is that the favourability of politicians is really low
and, in this race, exceptionally slow. jeremy, thank you. only five minutes to go until some states will close and we may be able to project some results for you at the top of the hour, east coast time. before that, we can go to anita done, former obama white house communications director. in so many areas, mrs clinton has been ahead of donald trump in terms of experience, character and so on, so why has this campaign been such a struggle for her? well, there are a couple of things that have been true throughout this campaign. one is that the majority of people in the united states in polling feel that the country is heading in the wrong direction, and this is a general sense of unease that has been here since the financial meltdown of 2008.
that is what we like to think of as a changed electorate, when two lulles of as a changed electorate, when two thirds of the people thinking that the country is in the wrong direction and a strong call for change was not as jeremy was saying, donald trump is seen as the candidate of change but, given that he is seen as unqualified and his temperament concerns people, that people think he doesn't have the experience, it shows you there is a fine line between being a change candidate and a risky candidate. what donald trump has become for, 1 think, a majority of voters is too big a risk to try and go for change. but it is also true that, in this country, it is very hard for a political party that has held the white house for eight years to win the next term. since world war ii, it has only happened once, with george bush following ronald reagan george bush following ronald reagan in it is very difficult. so i think hillary clinton has been fighting uphill in many respects for the whole campaign, but that
she has always been seen as experienced, qualified and prepared to be president. it's katty kay. the two issues on which hillary clinton does not rank higher than donald trump are improving the american economy and defending the country against terrorism. the problem for her is that those are americans' two top issues when it comes to what they are concerned about in this election. how is she going to overcome that gap, even if she wins? something that has always been true about hillary clinton is that she is ej about hillary clinton is that she is a better person in government and as a candidate. 1 a better person in government and as a candidate. i think that was true when she was a us senator and was really able to work with people in both political parties and was a very effective senator by all accounts and was re-elected by an overwhelming margin when she ran for re-election. she was a polarising figure during the presidential campaign in 1992 when
her husband, bill clinton, ran. when she became first lady, she was able to build effective coalitions. a lot of this is what you do once you get into office and how you show people, not just tell people, that you will be a strong president and protect the country from tourism and that you have ideas to rebuild the economy. 1 think marie clinton understands that those are the two issues facing the country and, should she win the presidency, they will be her major priorities. we are going to leave it there, sorry. thank you for joining us from our dc bureau. we are less than two minutes away from polling closing in six states. we are joined by emily maitlis. she was on another bbc programme earlier in downtown new york. she's had to run across manhattan, because the traffic is so bad, to make it here in time. © manhattan, because the traffic is so bad, to make it here in time.
a bit of a scout's pace. this is a critical moment because, in the next couple of moments, the first polls are closing in several key states. this is what the map looks like now, bright, blank and a clean sheet, but this is where we are going to see the polls closing, and the most marginal ones, the fierce battle grounds, are the top. let's start with virginia. this is a tight race. you can see from its electoral history that it has been taken twice by bush, twice by obama. tim kaine, clinton was running mate, has been trying to attract the hispanic vote trying to attract the hispanic vote in a changing demographic area in northern you can see how the campaign polls have clinton on 47 and trump on 42. this is just a campaign poll. they haven't given us any real results yet. b take you on td any real results yet. b take you on to another one, georgia, we are watching closely.
that seems odd when you look at that electoral history. it has had five solid runs of republicans. the last democrat to win here was bill clinton in 1992. trump ahead and again we are talking about campaign polls. if either virginia or georgia has been called, gets called early, it will be a big moment. indiana is our first result of the night. it has been called, projected for trump. that is the language they use it. they wouldn't be telling us this unless they were fairly certain. the polls here have closed state-wide at 7pm but some of them started closing at 6pm, which is why the counting has been underway for our. 1 is why the counting has been underway for our. i am just going to scoot through. you have to come with me. south carolina, we should expect td me. south carolina, we should expect to get quickly. olina, we should expect to get quickly. it has voted republican nine times in a row. s voted republican nine times in a row. it has voted republican nine times in a row. the last democrat to win here was carter last democrat to win here was carter in let me scoot through to the other ones.
kentucky, also being projected for trump. a 65% share of the vote. this is not an unexpected result. if trump wasn't winning kentucky for the republicans, it would have been an upset indeed. the last democrat to win here was clinton. the governor of arkansas, kentucky a neighbouring southern state, that probably helped. this one very much in the republican trump the south states, so no big surprises. we are coming back to virginia to say it is too early to project. that is interesting and it means it is probably quite tight. this was never called time round. it was never called. it is called quickly, that tells us an awful lot. this is how the map is colouring up by this is how the map is colouring up so far. we have had the first three states called. that is the state of vermont, which bernie sanders is the senator. a clear democrat win for
her, landing her three. trump is an h her, landing her three. trump is an 19 with indiana and kentucky. p is an 19 with indiana and kentucky. trump is an 19 with indiana and kentucky. both of those started counting an hour or by of those started counting an hour or so ago. if trump starts to take the lead early on, do not be surprised. e lead early on, do not be surprised. it is more a reflection of the current state in this part of america, the deep south and the south, that are closing earlier. what does this tell us? we have a long way to go. get a copy on. catch your breath, emily. thank you. katty kay, the states which have closed our georgia, interesting, indiana for mr trump, kentucky for mr trump, south carolina, all most certainly for mr trump, vermont for mrs clinton, and virginia is the toss-up. he had to win in indiana and kentucky. these are republican states. has to win those in south carolina or something very peculiar as happened in this campaign. virginia is the one we
will be watching. it would be a big, important take for louis thompson. we have been talking about this sort of state during the campaign. -- an important take for hillary clinton. it is an area of virginia in the north where you have had a younger vote of millennial is coming in, a lot of women living in those suburbs, a lot of hispanics, and then in the south of the state where our military bases and, in the south-west, energy areas, much more trump land. virginia will tell us a lot about how other states are going td lot about how other states are going to go. i'm going to watch georgia, too, because there has been speculation, it is unlikely, but if hillary clinton were to take georgia, we would be looking at a very different kind of election. mrs clinton must think she has won virginia, because she has not been there since july! she must think she has
it in the bag. it would be a shock to most people if she could not win virginia. the largest shock was when it went to barack obama in 2008. the state has changed so much. we see so many people with professional degrees, a women in the area, and changing attitudes about what the country should look like and the role of women. i feel confident that virginia is going to go for hillary clinton. it could be ej go for hillary clinton. it could be a while before we know. joe borelli, are you worried that the republicans, for almost two macca generations now, have been able to count on the south, unless it was a southern governor like the clinton running for president, they were pretty much in the republican basket. now we are beginning to see these question marks over virginia, over virginia and north carolina. are you worried that the republicans
are losing their grip on the south because they are not going with the changing demographic? as katty mentioned, virginia is becoming more northern, for lack of a better word to stop it is not part of the traditional democratic stronghold any more. the two states to what in this set of states are georgia and virginia. it hillary clinton doesn't win virginia and donald trump does not bring georgia, it would be a ground-breaking landslide in one direction or the other. let me take ej direction or the other. let me take a trip down memory memory lane. e take a trip down memory memory lane. let me take a trip down memory memory lane. in 2004, 1 a trip down memory memory lane. in 2004, i remember sitting on a roof overlooking the white house. it was absolutely freezing. and somebody said in my ear that virginia had gone to john kerry, the democrat, by five points. 1 gone to john kerry, the democrat, by five points. i remember thinking, this is not possible. something is wrong with these
polls. and it was our first indication that the exit polls were wrong. we should bear that in mind tonight, because there was no way in 2004 that a democrat was going to win virginia, let alone 99 was going to win virginia, let alone by five points. also, one of the things that is changing some states that are traditionally republican states, or red states, to blue states or purple states that we see large numbers of african americans and latinos living in northern states and the midwest who are moving back in droves to the south because the cost of living is easier. it is a lot less expensive and it is changing the nature of the self. georgia is the race to watch. there is a large turnout expected of latinos and african-americans. and you see the growth of the atlanta conurbation that has turned the state more democrat. if hillary was td state more democrat.
if hillary was to bring georgia tonight, it would change the election. but if she is struggling to win virginia, mr trump is in there with a chance of the white house. you mentioned the red states. let me explain to viewers across the world, it is a little confusing in the united states, as many things are. in most of the world, red means the left. red is the socialists by the social democratic colour. the british labour party sings the red flag. the soviet union was the red menace and by soviet union was the red menace and so on, and blue normally means conservative, to the right of centre, as in a true blue tory. here centre, as in a true blue tory. here in america, i quess centre, as in a true blue tory. here in america, i guess it's a new country. takes a while to catch up! the blue is the democrats. blue is td the blue is the democrats. blue is to the left and centre left, and read it to the right and centre right. we can thank tim russert for
that. he was the first one to do a map that used those colours. so he just did that himself. the power of the media. and of course, purple states mean they are image drove red and blue. just remember, red is republican, blue is democrat, purple is, we don't quite know. now, the financial markets, particularly the dow here markets, particularly the dow here in new york, soared on the prospect of a clinton wall street wants a democrat to win, interestingly. let's find out what the business consequences could be of a trump victory. michelle fleury is our north american business correspondent. she is on the roof of the bbc's facilities in new york.
if tule the bbc's facilities in new york. if mr trump wins tonight, do the markets go in the opposite direction? we can pretty much assume that is what would happen, based on the financial markets over the last couple of weeks. when we saw the polls narrow, the markets started to fall. for nine days in a row, the snp closed low -- the standard & poor's index. then when it seemed like hillary clinton might win, the markets rose higher. we saw the s&p 500 have its highest level in two years. investors think a clinton win would be good for them. . investors think a clinton win would be good for them. a donald trump win, which is seen as more uncertain and less predictable, that is why the markets are more concerned. if it looked like he was winning, you can expect a bumpy road ahead. that is interesting. we are used to wall street
wanting a republican to win and getting nervous if a democrat wins. if you are a trump supporter, you would say, that only shows that she is the candidate of wall street in this situation. but of course, i would remind our viewers but the markets soared on the prospect of brexit not winning and of remain voting on june 23. sun markets don't like uncertainty, and donald trump has not laid out a comprehensive bit of policies and there was a lot of concern about what a trump presidency would mean for america domestically and internationally. that is what you are seeing in the markets. i would quess that is what you are seeing in the markets. i would guess wall that is what you are seeing in the markets. i would quess wall street's ideal would be clinton in the white house, but the republicans still controlling congress. one of the ironies is that if you go back over the last 100 years, the markets do
extraordinarily well with democrat presidents and poorly with republican presidents. so when they show those preferences usually, it may not reflect their economic interest, or it may reflect the fact that we shouldn't listen to them. indeed, under mr obama, the s&p has shown an average increase of 15% a year. let's speak to a former presidential candidate, republican jim gilmore, former governor of the junior, former chairman of the republican national committee. you dropped out of this race in february. having looked at how it has gone this year, 1 february. having looked at how it has gone this year, i wonder whether you are not rather glad you didn't run for the whole thing? well, no, i don't regret it for one minute. 1 had the opportunity to meet people across the united states and it was ej across the united states and it was a wonderful experience. i learned a lot. but now we have to make sure the future of the united states is intact and were making a big decision on that tonight.
you have supported donald trump in his bid to become president of the united states. the same is not true of all of your republican colleagues. today we got the news that former president george w bush and his wife laura voted today, but they did not vote for donald trump. what does this all bowed for the future of the republican party? that is a great question. i think the republican party is going to be in a crisis at the end of this election unless donald trump is elected president. then i think he will quide the republican party in a particular direction. but let me be direct. the national republican leaders who do not support the candidate, 1 believe, are wrong. the general direction of the nation is at issue direction of the nation is at issue in this campaign, whether you move more to the right or to the 1 chose my party's candidate because i believe hillary clinton will be bad for the economy and bad
for investment. but many of them said that they couldn't support the unsupportable, that some of the things donald trump had said, particularly about women in that access hollywood tape, where he talks about groping women, that has been seen as sexual assault, that they couldn't support donald trump. were you ok with what he has said and done about women? of course not. you are not ok with that kind of thing. but the main thing is that we have a direct comparison here between donald trump or hillary clinton. the question is, what are the big picture directions for the united states of america? we need to be a strong country with growth that exceeds this miserable one to 2% we have been seeing for many years. we need to make sure our military is intact, that we are good readers of nato, that we are wonderful partners with our allies across the world, and we are not going to see that.
we will see more of the same that we have seen for the last eight years. the american people know that that is not good and they want change. that is why this election is still that is why this election is still in hillary clinton doesn't represent change, she represents the same. that is what made me decide that despite the criticism of both candidates , that despite the criticism of both candidates, that i would choose my own party's candidate and stay with it. and 1 own party's candidate and stay with it. and i think the national republican leaders that betrayed their local rank-and-file people who are out there, putting up signs, going to the polls and calling people on the telephone, the leaders who don't support the rank-and-file people are guilty of betrayal. who don't support the rank-and-file people are quilty of betrayal. maybe george w bush didn't get the memo about that, since he didn't vote for tule about that, since he didn't vote for mr trump today, we are told. let's look outside in times square, where new yorkers gather on presidential elections night. our partner broadcaster, abc
news, are out there. they are waving on a bus going by. they have no idea what they are waving at, but even so! ave no idea what they are waving at, but even so! they have no idea what they are waving at, but even so! the abc news studios are on the other side of times square. they will predict the results and we will bring them to you as soon as they do. the excitement is building up. more people are going to come into times square as the evening goes on. so if that bus once to get anywhere else, it had better get out quickly ig else, it had better get out quickly or suffer some gridlock. now, we are going to talk a lot tonight about the changing demographic face of america. jeremy has more on that. yes, the word race underlies a lot of what is happening in this election. it will be possible to look at the polls afterwards and see how the vote
has broken down. in many cases, race may be a factor. if we look at white americans and how they vote, you can see that the majority do go for trump. go, on the other hand, to black voters and my goodness, the margin for clinton is extraordinary. it was even greater for barack obama. if we look at hispanic voters, 67%, a massive margin for hillary clinton and the democrats. the thrust of this is that trump is stronger in the largest group here in the electorate. but hillary clinton is way ahead in these growing, burgeoning minority groups. and the question is how
that will affect each state's voting. let's take a wider look at the changing face of the usa. if we look at ronald reagan in the 1980s, eight out of ten voters in those days were white and 12% black and 6% hispanic. we have talked a lot about how america is changing. just watch this as we go through the years since reagan and we come now td years since reagan and we come now to 2016. (tm you can see that the latino presence you can see that the latino presence in the electorate has trebled in the last three to four how will that affect voting in state? well, there may be some states where it doesn't matter much. look at this one. ohio is talked about a lot, in the rust belt, flashing here on our map.
the significance of ohio is firstly that it is tight between the two parties. there are lots of rural republican areas and the city is classically blue. but the interesting thing is how accurate it has foreseen the winning candidate all the way back to bill clinton's first victory in 1992. maybe tonight it will vote the same way as the winning candidate again. trump has hopes in ohio, and this is why. have a look at the changing demographic in ohio specifically. hanging demographic in ohio specifically. 80% whites in 1918 in the usa. it was even higher in pence -- ohio. even higher in pence -- ohio. it was even higher in pence -- ohio. as america changed around it, the demographics of ohio interchange that much. it went from 88% to 80% over five years.
meanwhile, the minority voters didn't change all that much. that is why trump hopes he can take a state like ohio, because he knows he is strongest among white voters and, in places where white voters are dominant, he has his best chance. his problem is, has his best chance. his problem is, in states like florida, where there is a fast increasing minority voting population, there is a danger that, even if he'd tober charges -- if he turbochargers is called out, there is a chance he might not win. can see from this why he is worried he might not win in ohio. jeremy, i have got a question to do with what you were talking about about disaffection with politicians. it's clear it is happening here. is it happening in the uk as well and in other countries in europe and in the west as well? just for viewers around the world, is this a singularly
american phenomenon or is it global? just after i did that graphic, 1 it global? just after i did that graphic, i looked at twitter and people said, it isn't to do with clinton or trump, it is wider, western politics, maybe even global. western politics, maybe even global. i think it is to do with the power of social media, the power of what they call the return path, voters coming back at you if your eye politician, which creates a culture of no more heroes. it may be that we just look more closely at stuff done on our behalf by our leaders. obviously, the usa had the clinton white house and the iraq war and afghanistan. we had the same in the usa. -- in the uk. so there has been a change in the uk as well in that politicians, and all figures of authority, whether they are park keepers or archbishops, are not granted automatic respect. it is a change we are all dealing with. think it is
true of journalists, too. unfortunately i don't think we are granted automatic respect. ink we are granted automatic respect. unfortunately i don't think we are granted automatic respect. when did that happen? yesterday, i think. are we evil mainstream media? as jeremy was explaining, the changing demographics of the united states, the growth of the histon -- the growth of the more hispanic vote, more asian voters, the millennials come with different attitudes from their parents, even young white millennials are often very different from their older parents, all of this has resulted in a different politics in america, and the man of mr trump toss campaign is cut off a number of routes to the white house. e number of routes to the white house. it means his support is overwhelmingly concentrated in the southern states, which are republican, and in those states where there are lots of older blue-collar workers, the midwest states around the great lakes. michelle bernard is here and we are joined by ron
christie, a republican strategist. i would suggest that it isn't a great strategy for your party to tie itself to the declining felad party to tie itself to the declining part of the population and to do really badly in the growing part of the population. you are preaching to the choir. give us a song! politics is about addition rather than subtraction. if you can't add more people of colour or more college-educated white women to the gop, we are done. that is the grand old party, the republican nickname. yes, in order the donald trump to win, he has to do better with the white vote than mitt romney did, 59% of white vote. when you look at the millennials, who are now tied with the baby boomers, the senior population is the largest voting block, if you can't appeal to the young block, if you can't appeal to the young, people of colour and women, trump has a difficult path. in a nutshell, does that sum
up why, whereas mrs clinton has many parts td whereas mrs clinton has many parts to the white house, that mr trump's routes to the white house are quite limited? they are very narrow. now that we are in the 7pm power, he has to do extraordinarily well in south carolina. how is he going to do in north carolina and georgia? when you start looking at these key states in the south, if trump can't do well in this southern states, his narrow path almost becomes extinct. as we are saying, he has fewer routes to the white house, but he has routes, and they are certainly not closed yet. we can get some more details on how it could be president trump. jf could be, and it feels narrow at this point. we will talk about the difficulty of the mathematical route, because we are talking about electoral college votes and the key thing for either candidate is to get past the crucial figure of 270 four stuff
they are spread out throughout the state is to the side -- size of population, not land mass. this is the map coloured up by the states that have been rejected, indiana and kentucky for donald trump, and vermont, just three electoral college votes, for hillary clinton. this is what has to happen for donald trump to make it through. let me put in what we are going to call our campaign polls, how the campaign polls coloured up the safer seats. in other words, before the election, this is what happened, this is how the campaigns have coloured it up. everything in blue is considered safe democratic seat, everything red is considered to be safe republican, and the grey states are the real battle grounds, which we will be watching most closely. now i am going to go into calculator mode and, at this point, 1 going to go into calculator mode and, at this point, i can use a pen and colour in the states according td and colour in the states according to what we are imagining could happen. as things stand, clinton has ej happen.
as things stand, clinton has a blue wall, a more solid base of democratic states, on 200, according td democratic states, on 200, according to campaign polls. trump only has 180, short by 90 foot in other words, he has already further declined by this point. let's imagine that he got at least what mitt romney got lost time in 2012. mitt romney picked up arizona and north carolina, so we are going to colour then in red. he is still short of 64. even as the map looks now, he can't do it. what else could go his way? it looks like lowa could go his way. he has also campaigned a lot in ohio. he expects to take ohio tonight. even if he does, he is short by 40. what does he need? the really big battle ground
states and let's imagine that he takes florida, which is neck and neck, 29 college votes, so let's chuck in a fume. he thinks he can probably win new hampshire. he won his first primary he won his first primary in new hampshire and he had a big rally that night. they liked him very much on the republican side. what about maine? i am adding these what about maine? i am adding these folds what about maine? i am adding these in bit by bit and he is still short by six, even when he has arizona, north carolina, ohio, florida, new hampshire. a lot of these are in balance. he has to take another one of these really big states. he has td of these really big states. he has to take virginia, which obama won twice, pennsylvania, michigan or wisconsin, which his campaign manager said tonight is looking tough. colorado, it is becoming more hispanic. nevada, centred around las
vegas. he is quite different presence there. if he does it, at that point, he has crossed the magic line and he has a path to the white house, but can you see how much of the map, how long it has taken him...? ? so everything has to go right for him? yes, hillary clinton can right for him? yes, hillary clinton eldcliices right for him? yes, hillary clinton can afford to lose florida, pennsylvania or ohio, but trump pretty much need all three. without them, it is very hard. and we know from early voting, and there has been record turnout, that at least nevada, possibly even florida, are actually looking better for hillary clinton than donald trump. we have been talking about demographics and one of the most interesting things about hispanics, and it is what keeps republican strategists at night, it is that every month 50,000 hispanics turn 18, making them eligible voters. in the past, they haven't
turned out rusher they haven't turned out to vote. but mr trump gave them a reason this time. do you think they are going to change this time? we already know from an exit poll that there is an even stronger tilt towards mrs clinton. and turnout. the exit poll and early voting tell us a bit but what trump has to do is get a massive turnout today on election day in republican areas with republicans coming home. there will be some states where that might happen, but what we can see from some of the votes coming in in florida now from today is that, for example in a county around jacksonville, a republican stronghold, the numbers are not coming in in a fashion that would make him feel comfortable. 1 make him feel comfortable. i make another point, robby mook, the clinton campaign manager, said a bit earlier that we might not know north carolina's results tonight, not
simply because it is that close. there, they have had tremendous problems in the area around durham, where duke university is. 1 problems in the area around durham, where duke university is. i don't know why, maybe russian hacking or a screw-up, but the electronic poll books have been way off, and we have got a dispute going on with the north carolina board of elections will extend voting powers. we may find this in other places. let me interrupt you, because we can tell you now that 3 million votes have now been counted in florida. 3 million. still a long way to go. the result so far? clinton 49%, trump 48%. i think the word cliffhanger comes to mind, because we have been there before in this most swing swing states. it is coming up to 7:30pm in new york. let's go back to emily, because some more states are about to close, and we
may even be able to project some results. i am just having a look. we are expecting west virginia to be called any moment. that would be a big surprise. it is hartland trump supporters, white working class, one of the poorest state in america and home to some of trump poorest supporters. yes, it has gone red. that means it has been projected for trump. he will be pleased to have that in the bag but, 1 trump. he will be pleased to have that in the bag but, i would have thought, not that surprised. let's go through to some of the other ones that are expected. let me go back to my list here. these are the ones we are going to be watching. we have seen west virginia turning red. ohio and north carolina, some of the most exciting races. in ohio, it is too early to project. this is the kind of place trump will really feel he has started to make a
move towards that mountain he has declined. if he can take ohio, it gets him 18 electoral college votes. no republican has won the presidency without ohio. if he doesn't win ohio, it starts to look a bit more shaky. of course, this is the election of new presidents, of rules being ripped up, but certainly it would be even more hard if he didn't win it tonight. let's go to one more, if we can. that is north carolina. you heard rock talking about the kind of battles we have seen in north carolina. there have been allegations by the democrats of voter suppression, certainly of the african american voters in areas where they have fewer days, and it was republican-backed laws that made it much harder for them to get the polls. north carolina, they have seen quite a bit of racial tension earlier in autumn. this is somewhere they had
both campaigned tirelessly right up to the last moment, and from its history it is very interesting. obama won it once and lost it once. this is somewhere that donald trump has been saying he can take and he expects to take but, if the democrats take it back tonight, they will be pretty pleased, 1 the democrats take it back tonight, they will be pretty pleased, i would think. how has the map coloured up? we have only got one new edition in this half-hour. indiana, kentucky, west virginia, all solid republican heartland states, they have gone for donald trump, they are in red, and the sole state of vermont, three for hillary clinton. don't read too much into these early results. it's just ej into these early results. it's just a reflection of which states close when. wood thanks, emily, so no surprises so far. those states which were meant to go for mr trump and the state that was meant to go to mrs clinton, vermont, has gone to mrs clinton.
emily mentioned ohio, and of course mr trump has to win it, but he has been ahead in the polls in ohio list of the time. it is leaning towards him. of all of the close battle ground states, that is probably the one he feels most favourable about, and tonight we are not just talking about the presidential election elections for the senate, a third of the senators are up for re-election, and that is ej are up for re-election, and that is a cliffhanger as well between republicans and democrats. republicans hold the senate at the moment but the democrats would like it. one of the senate races we have been looking at is ohio. rob portman is the senator from ohio, he is a republican. he has just been re-elected. it wasn't massively close. it had been close at certain times. it was one which perhaps the democrats might have hoped to pick up. a couple of months ago,
they thought they might get it. but rob portman is one of those more moderate republicans. he is seen as somebody that democrats can do business with. he does that thing which is becoming increasingly unforgettable in american politics, which is to come demise. -- increasingly unforgettable. it will never catch on, this compromise business. you can criticise mr trump for narrowing his roots to the white house, almost knowing he was doing it. on the other hand, the rust belt strategy must be doing something to work, because in the final days we saw mrs clinton rushing off to michigan, mrs clinton starting yesterday in pittsburgh, pennsylvania, and making her second to last stop in philadelphia. it seemed that the clinton campaign began to worry that some of the rust belt states they thought they had were
back in contention. absolutely, the reason for that is that donald trump, in addition to the things we have discussed that he has tapped into, donald trump has tapped into this area of the nation where manufacturing jobs have decreased. for example, when he talks about the impact of nafta and globalisation and free trade... but it was mrs clinton's husband who signed up to the north american freak dairy. exactly, so when people hear donald trump said he will bring manufacturing jobs back, those are people who are very happy to hear someone telling them what they need to hear. west virginia, mrs clinton is famously anti-coal. we hear from donald trump that west virginia will continue to be coal country. so we also see globalisation and free trade on trial in our
election. let's go to pennsylvania now. the bbc's jane o'brien is in philadelphia in a very jolly looking bar. i hope you will be there for a bit longer. this is a very important state for hillary clinton ord donald trump to win. it is one they have both spent a lot of time in, isn't it? that's right. as you can hear, the party is still going. it's a hangover from the star-studded rally she held last month. philadelphia is ej she held last month. philadelphia is a hotbed of clinton support, but not like the whole of pennsylvania. that is why both candidates have been campaigning here right up to the wire. 1 campaigning here right up to the wire. i am at mcgill's historic pub, and most people here are clinton supporters. but i do have something as rare as the siting of a pink unicorn, and
that is a trump supporter, jack. you voted for mr trump this morning, but you voted in western pennsylvania, one of the rust belt areas we keep talking about. why do you support him? why do you support him ? voted for donald trump because of the second amendment rights. we need to protect our military. we need to bring this country back to where it was before. where was it before and what exactly do you want to see? . where was it before and what exactly do you want to see? where was it before and what exactly do you want to see? it is changing so fast. is it possible? a lot of things have changed in the eb a lot of things have changed in the last eight years, with obamacare and every thing else. a lot of things have hurt a people. my own son, a self-employed individual, had to pay ej self-employed individual, had to pay a fine of $750 because he didn't have insurance. while all the other immigrants that are coming into this country are getting free insurance. we need to change that. that is wrong. that is your perception
of the problem where you live, but how will donald trump actually make a difference ? will donald trump actually make a difference? we haven't heard much of his policies. when he did his speech his policies. when he did his speech in gettysburg about ten days ago, he said what he was going to do in his first 100 days of office, how he was going to change america, how he was going to shake up washington, dc, how all the liberals and the other people are going to run for cover. that is his way of doing things. he is a brilliant man. do you have any confidence that hillary clinton is listening to people like you, who clearly feel that you have been left out of the changes that america has seen? she says she has been in politics for 30 plus years. what has she fixed in those years? nothing. she is part of the problem.
how do you feel about being in this bar with all these hillary supporters? am happy to be here and i am happy to be a double from supporter. and you are also a former marine, i quess that makes a difference. back to you. that is the kind of unity that america needs to start seeing, ej that america needs to start seeing, a trump supporter in a clinton bar. let's check in with the clinton headquarters, a few blocks from where we are in downtown manhattan. kim ghattas is there. what is the mood now as some of these states are starting to close, some being called and some being projected? what are they making of it? cautiously confident. there is already a crowd of supporters here, but it is too early to tell how good the result will be for hillary clinton, who
is expecting to win. 1 will be for hillary clinton, who is expecting to win. i have spoken to several of her aides in the last few days, travelling with them on the campaign plane and checking in with them tonight. they are still saying they feel good about the result. they are not saying how good they feel. a few days ago, they said they were hoping to cross beyond 270 and beyond 300 electoral votes, even. we will have to see how it plays out. but they are counting on the ground game they have been working on for so game they have been working on for so long now for 18 months, to get the vote out, not only in the early voting states, but also in the bushel battle ground states on the day of the election, today, including states like pennsylvania. she had a last-minute mad dash across these states yesterday, finishing at three in the morning, back from michigan and north carolina. this was her last day of
campaigning. she put all her efforts into that. now it is a waiting game. her aides told me she has prepared two speeches, the victory speech and ej two speeches, the victory speech and a concession speech. but as one aide told me, they expect a victory, unless a freaky confluence of events comes together and means there is an upset. they don't expect that, but they have to remember that it has been that kind of year. more than that kind of year. it certainly has. kim ghattas at the clinton headquarters. maybe she will have to draft a third speech for a tired result. norm, help me here. they think florida is looking good for hillary, the data geeks. they say she's doing well in key swing counties, but with over
5 million moh counties, but with over 5 million votes in florida, it is trump 49, clinton 48, even stevens. 5 million sounds like a big number, but in florida, it's not. we still have a sliver of the vote in and a lot of the early votes, we have had almost nothing in from miami, a huge county that is very democratic. we know from the exit polls in florida, where you will get a stronger hispanic vote for trump the new bill hispanic vote for trump the new bill in other places because of the cuban-americans, that he is doing much more poorly than mitt romney did last and we know, as 1 mentioned earlier, that in one place where we are getting a sizeable number of votes, at least a third of the precincts, number of votes, at least a third of the precinets, du val co, it is dead even and that is a very republican area. trump probably needs to win that county by 300,000 votes to have ej that county by 300,000 votes to have a
chance, and right now he is still too early to make projections. but ell too early to make projections. but all of the early expectation is that we had that florida would be a good state for clinton because of that surge in early voting and the hispanic votes suggests that we should not pay a lot of attention to ej should not pay a lot of attention to a trump lead at this point. as we start to get on our twitter feeds and start to get on our twitter feeds ecies start to get on our twitter feeds and as viewers get early indications on their mobile phones, it is worth reminding everybody that each state is almost like country. we have to make sure we have got representation from every bit of the country before we can draw any conclusions. that is exactly right. to go back to something you and emily touched on, ch something you and emily touched on, oh 10 something you and emily touched on, ch 10 is something you and emily touched on, oh 10 is that country. 18 electoral college votes. trump having an early victory college votes. trump having an early mlacanle college votes. trump having an early victory is a good sign for the republicans. john kasich, the governor of
ohio, was elected two years ago with 27% of the african-american vote and over 40% of the hispanic vote. it seems to me that if a republican governor can get those numbers and a republican senator can get re-elected so early tonight, that might change things for mr trump. in virginia, 15% of the precinets for mr trump. in virginia, 15% of the precincts have been counted. rginia, 15% of the precincts have been counted. in virginia, 15% of the precincts have been counted. mr trump is leading 54-41. again, that doesn't necessarily mean anything because it depends on the precincts. if most of the precincts come from the rural areas, that is more likely td the rural areas, that is more likely to be for mr trump. but since the north is meant to have the college educated, pro-clinton once, why are the non-college educated folks counting more quickly than those in the northern areas? you would think they would get their act together so that we could get a better picture of virginia. they are busy
at a university faculty meeting. for more on virginia and the exit polls, let's go back to jeremy. thank you. as we get exit poll data, we are just passing it and seeing what we can tell you. this state went democrat with barack obama in 2008 in what katty kay said earlier was a shock result that made you think, are the polls wrong? it hadn't been democrat since 1964. it now seems to be reliably democrat. but let's see what we can tell you. here is exit poll data on the vote among women in virginia. you can see that trump is way behind hillary clinton. she is on 57% and he is on the tea. so among women, hillary
clinton has an immense lead. exit poll data among men is something like 5%. that is an interesting insight into a state that are starting to look much more democrat and it is going well therefore hillary. virginia is one of the key states where are keeping an eye on tonight. in a sense, if mr trump can win virginia, and that is a big if, he is definitely still in the race. but if mrs clinton wins it, she is well on her way to the white house. sun one quick point on virginia. there is this suburban county, loughton county, that he's been near a bellwether in virginia before. it went for obama by the same margin that he won the entire state by. right now, she's winning by 16 points in that county. so you would say that mrs clinton is
on track to win virginia comfortably? it looks that way. she is up by 16. that is a sign that these educated white women are moving in her direction. that is one of the richest counties in the united states. northern virginia has three of the richest counties. it has a lot of this suburban women voters and a lot of independent suburban voters as well, many of whom only read their minds up in the last couple of weeks. but if norm's numbers are right from loudoun county, that suggests that a lot of those women are turning up to vote for her. we now have two more quests here. then used to work for mr obama. and suzanne is a republican, but not a
trump republican. i am not supporting donald trump. how is it going? it is still early to tell, although there is good news on the horizon for republicans, seeing portman wins decisively in ohio. but we still have a way to go. what would you say? it is looking like a good night. why are you smiling? the early numbers are positive. if hillary clinton wins the state of virginia which hadn't been in play for the democrats for a long time before obama won it in 2008, it would be the start of a very good night. she wouldn't have to win the state of florida if she picked up colorado and nevada after that. she has a lot of parts to the presidency if she can win virginia early. uf she wins virginia, she doesn't need td she wins virginia, she
doesn't need to win florida, you are saying? she doesn't have to do. that's the difference between clinton and trouble tonight. she has many options to get to 270 electoral real votes. trump has a narrow path. he has to perform very well in the state still to play. and he has, above all, to win florida. if donald trump doesn't win florida 1 above all, to win florida. if donald trump doesn't win florida i think it will be nearly impossible for him to win the presidency. he would have to win a series of states that democratic presidents have won recently like michigan, wisconsin. he has campaigned there but it would bull he has campaigned there but it would still be a surprise if he won those states. susan, you are a lifelong republican, you work for republicans, but you haven't voted for donald trump. what was it that made you take that decision? i don't see donald trump as a republican. 1 see him as an opportunist, somebody who ran as a populist, who certainly ran away with the
nomination, taking out 16 other very good for republicans, because he was able to affect speak to the voter who feels like they were left behind. that's why he won. and that's why he has cross-party appeal. some of the bernie sanders voters, he really does reach across to a union worker who hears his opinion on trade. donald trump is not a free trader, that's a tenet of the republican party, it believes in free trade. for me it was a -- it wasn't a hard decision not to support him because decision not to support him because i don't feel like he's a i don't feel like he's a republican. i did not vote for either clinton or trumpeter dave. who did you vote for? i will not share that. -- trump today. i want to make it clear 1 didn't vote for either one. o make it clear 1 didn't vote for either one. we can now talk to a former director of the cia.
also a trump supporter in our dc bureau. james woolsey, welcome to the programme. how do you think it's going so far for mr trump? close. it could go either way. some of the early returns look a bit more favourable for hillary clinton, but not decisive. and not necessarily anything that would shut off a trump surge. so we just have to sit here and watch these lights flickering on our television sets for a while. i'm glad they are still flickering. we must have paid the electricity bill. are you happy in the way, the man of tule are you happy in the way, the man of mr trump's campaign? he ended up depending so much, overwhelmingly on, not just white voters, but white voters without
a college degree, not just those, but also white male voters. was that a sensible strategy? i think he tried for all. the thing that has set him aside in ej the thing that has set him aside in a way is a very unique, what's called in musical trade, shtick, a routine that puts some people off. some aspects of it put me off, but it also got a lot of attention. ultimately, 1 it also got a lot of attention. ultimately, i think it drew a lot of people to him. sometimes such a pattern of the way he speaks and so forth is popular, sometimes it's not. when i have met with him privately and talked to him on the phone, none of the bombast of his public speaking is there. it's always very straightforward, matter of
fact, how about this and that. 1 don't know, 1 don't think the way he has approached this has excluded any potential voters. let me ask you this. i understand you're not a campaign strategist but you are a former director of the cia. have you been comfortable with the fact he has barely uttered a word of criticism of either russia or president putin? we have to talk nicely to some countries we have diplomatic relations with, even though we realise that at basis we are though we realise that at basis we ca cs) though we realise that at basis we are very hostile to them and they are to us. the us and britain were very close to josef stalin, at that point the greatest killer in human history at world war i1. point the greatest killer in human history at world war ii. that's because we faced an existential threat from hitler. we needed help threat from hitler. we needed help in beating the nazis.
e needed help in beating the nazis. it's rather difference between mr trump and the kremlin. if anybody thinks these expressions of friendliness, or hostility and so forth, in a campaign are definitive policy statements, that's just wrong. nobody uses them for that. but are you happy... what i'm not happy with is hillary clinton's approach. her approach towards maintaining national secrets and in taking care that we have a decent foreign policy that isn't run in craziness. and is not reflective of what president obama has done, which is to make it much easier for the iranians to get ej much easier for the iranians to get a nuclear weapons. i think those issues absolutely dwarf style and nuance in speaking and so on. are you also happy that
your candidate has described nato as obsolete, and doesn't seem to be a supporter of it at a time when russia has been on both hard and soft war manoeuvres on the eastern borders of europe? is that a sensible foreign policy for the united states? ever since 1949 and the formation of nato, the united states, which carries the labouring and financing focus of nato, has always criticised european allies because they are not doing more. this is nothing different than we have seen in the last 50 or 60 years. no presidential candidate has described nato as obsolete until mr trump. i just don't think putting so much weight on which word he chooses to exhort nato to do more is something you should bear down on from the point of view of understanding his foreign
policy. it's really irrelevant. all right, we will leave it there. let's go to california now, and a congressman, a democrat, joining us from los angeles. we have talked a lot this evening about the changing nature of america and the hispanic vote. historically, hispanics have not turned out to vote even though there are now increasing numbers of them are now increasing numbers of them in the united are you seeing ej in the united states. are you seeing a change in this election? dramatic. no doubt this will be a record level turnout of latinos in this election. it could be so large and so significant that it tips the election in some of these battle ground states. there is a very strong chance that we could save the latino vote could be the decisive vote in this election. is it entirely donald
trump they are voting against? no. hillary clinton has a lot of history with the latino community, she started working with the community before she was ever in the public eye so directly. but she has done a number of things during her 30 years of public service that has drawn her to the latino community. she had a history with us and she had a great deal of support, as did her husband. as a result, that gave her the opportunity to build on it. it helps, of course, that there was an opponent running for president who did everything to shun the latino vote from the republican party. today the party of lincoln is paying the price of its nominee. we know hispanics in different states have different priorities. in california they are interested in the economy. in texas they are interested in health care. in florida hispanics say their priority is terrorism. why does immigration and immigration reform
ranked as an issue for hispanics in america, and do they think that under president clinton they would have any greater chance of getting comprehensive immigration reform in this country than they did under barack obama, who wanted to do it and tried to do it by executive order but had it overturned by the courts? i think you'll find that latinos throughout the country, regardless of their original heritage, probably place jobs and the economy and education as the top priorities. as do most every other american family. after that, you will find issues like immigration are will find issues like immigration ca cs) will find issues like immigration are very personal. because, like me, i'm the son of immigrants, so it's very close. we all still know very many people within our family, our neighbourhoods and our reach who are impacted by immigration and this broken immigration system. it's an important issue and we see it has very personal.
when politicians attack immigrants, we see it as an attack on our family. whether or not we are directly immigrants ourselves. that's why this has become such a volatile issue for republicans, because donald trump has turned it into a virtual ticking time bomb. in a recent vote released today by latino decisions, a very active latino polling organisation, they're pulling out today shows that the latino vote is likely to go 79% for hillary clinton and 18% for donald trump. that is even below what mitt romney got four years ago. thank you, for joining us from los angeles. hispanics, 1 thank you, for joining us from los angeles. hispanics, i think they might be the story of this election campaign, the changing face of america and how hispanics are coming out to vote. we have a view more states about to close any second.
susan, i remember ronald reagan was proud of the fact that immigrants wanted to come to america. he said it was a shining city on a hill. he wanted them, even the illegal ones, td wanted them, even the illegal ones, to work a pathway towards legality. to work a pathway towards legality. i remember he said that hispanics are actually republican voters, they just don't know it yet. what's happened to your party when it has come to immigrants? you have a chance to think of the answer, i'm sorry, it's rush hour here when it comes to the results. 8pm new york time and we have more states coming in, some of them crucial. emily hurtz 20 states closing the polls and the one to florida. remember 2000. last time it was only won by 1% for obama. we are not expecting it to be
called quickly. it was never even called last time. they have already counted a quarter of the votes, 25% of the precinct have already counted a quarter of the votes, 25% of the precinet is in and clinton just has the edge. she has taken place like hillsborough county, that disney corridor that divides the southern democratic voting area and the panhandle that tends to vote republican. we understand she has taken at county. but there are still 75% of the vote ball but there are still 75% of the vote still to come in. no predictions yet at all. pennsylvania is another that has just closed the polls. clinton made her final speech of the campaign here last night with her husband, obama, michelle obama, and that's where she signed off in the rust belt state which has a good solid democratic history for her. and we can just look at what we have coming up so far. oklahoma coming in, safely
delivered in red to the republicans for trump. mississippi has also gone red for trump, no surprises there. and the whole north-east section that has quickly gone into blue. if we get anything called quickly, it was a pretty easy one to call or project. no big surprises in the list in either colour. hillary clinton with 68 electoral college votes. llary clinton with 68 electoral college votes. she needs 270 to win. short by 202. as it stands, donald trump is currently short by 233. we will be in the back and we will be watching florida in particular. taking you back to virginia, that is of particular interest. we have a third of the vote nearly, 31%, and trump is taking the lead. 54% of the counties we
have had in, five of them have gone red. if he can take virginia tonight, with all we have said about the changing demographic, about it becoming more democratic voting, educated in the north, that means a lot of rural virginia has rallied behind the republican vote tonight. behind the republican vote tonight. i don't want to make predictions, this one wasn't called last time either. we only have 31% in so far. but at the moment i wouldn't be surprised if his campaign team were cheering quietly in the back room. when you look at counties in virginia, clinton will be happy that these numbers don't mean much. florida has become a
little more democratic. she is now winning it by ej democratic. she is now winning it by a more substantial margin than obama. it is another good sign for her. one other piece of news is that the north carolina board of elections has just agreed to extend voting in eight precinets in elections has just agreed to extend voting in eight precincts in durham [«el¥iety/ voting in eight precincts in durham county. we have talked about the different make-ups of these states. democrats in durham county have a 4-1 registration advantage over republicans. they will be glad to get the voting time extended. we should point out that if you are in the queue to vote in the united states before polling term ends, the polling station will stay open as long as it takes to get you through. then you get to vote. norm, is it ells then
you get to vote. norm, is it fair to say that from what we know by fair to say that from what we know so far, florida is trending towards mrs clinton? florida is chen ding in that direction. again, i will say that the early vote was an enormous advantage for her. but that is going to narrow overall because her voters turned out to vote early. there will be more trump voters voting today. but when we look at other areas like du val county and hillsborough that are starting to come in in larger numbers and you compare them to what romney got last time, which was a narrow margin in florida, it is looking better for her than it did at this point for obama. it is also looking better for her because of the hispanic vote and the registration drive they had, because of the puerto rican is coming into florida and being able to vote. they have done a tremendous job in florida of registering
and getting the hispanic kaminski involved. -- the hispanic community. two of the bluest states in the country, california and new york, but had republican governors. it didn't just happen because of the registration, it happened because they worked so hard to build coalitions. but who was the last republican presidential candidate to win new york and california? his name was ronald reagan. but my point is that you have to work to build the coalitions. you can't announce your candidacy and automatically turn off potentially 90% of the population. that is what donald trump did. so i am concerned because it looks like the latino vote will be a game changer in this election with their turnout. 1 changer in this election with their turnout. i am concerned that the republican party may have lost them for a generation.
the interesting thing is, after the republicans lost the last election, the republican party did an autopsy on wide a. they said, this has the be an inclusive party next time that is attractive to hispanics and women party next time that is attractive to hispanics and women. and a candidate like jeb bush, who was the early favourite of the establishment republicans, tried to run that campaign and he was roundly rejected. he was rejected by the republican base in the primaries, so there will be a massive reckoning where there might still be split between the republican establishment and the base, and that will take a long time to sort out. are you still smiling? i will be smiling all night. does not concern you, smiling as you do, that although we have heard about the problems for the republicans, does it not concern you that the democrats are no longer
the party of america's blue-collar workers? we will see what the results say tonight. if hillary clinton wins a state like pennsylvania, if she wins a state like michigan, that doesn't mean she doesn't represent blue-collar voters. if she wins, she will win because of philadelphia. she is not winning the rural areas or the steel areas where the blue-collar workers are. but many of those voters left the democratic party under ronald reagan. it is now a more diverse country. i think that hillary clinton tonight will bring the spanish and african-american communities and women. i was asking about the ones she isn't winning, the blue-collar workers that used to be the backbone of the democratic party. i think they will see with hillary clinton, who unlike donald trump
has proposed -- who has proposed tax cuts for the rich, she is focused on the working class. barack obama did not win those blue-collar workers. let's bring in some news from the senate. according td some news from the senate. according to exit poll projections we are getting, marco rubio has won the senate race in florida. he was of course the republican who ran against donald trump. as susan was saying, he was one of the people who might have led the republican party might have led the republican party in a different when he ran for the presidency, he said he would not run again for the senate. he jumped back into the race in the summer and he will now be back. that seat was in contention a while back. e seat was in contention a while back. it is not a huge surprise that the republicans have won that. he's tremendously outperforming donald trump in
his state. the tremarco, as trump called him, is back in the race. he could be a republican again for the nomination in 2020. could be a republican again for the nomination in 2020. he could be a republican again for the nomination in 2020. let's take you outside the clinton headquarters here on the west side of new york. lots of people have been turning up, most of them, i assume, hoping for a clinton victory. it is a massive convention centre in new york, named after a republican senator of new york, it was a pretty moderate republican. ironically, you probably would have had more in common with mrs clinton than he would have had with donald trump. one of the interesting features of this campaign, particularly as it came towards an end, was how nearly all the
action was concentrated on the east and the midwest. in the final 24 hours, both candidates never really went west of the mississippi. it was all taking place in florida, the rust belt states, north carolina, virginia and by states, north carolina, virginia and so on. but there is a big west out there, a lot of republican. one of the states that has been in contention is nevada. so let's go to our correspondent there are james cook. he is in las vegas, which is clinton territory. but we don't know if the home state is clinton territory. but we don't know if the home state is kington territory, do we? -- clinton territory. yes, this city is clinton territory, but the wider state is extremely interesting. you have been talking about latino voters and here in nevada, with its six electoral college votes, not the biggest, but ball college votes, not the biggest, but
still one of the most important because of the latino population here which has made this into a very competitive state, and it is a state which could be very useful for both donald trump or hillary clinton. the latino population that is eligible td latino population that is eligible to vote here is 17% of the voting population. the act were latino population is greater than that. we have been speaking to a lot of people here and there were long queues this morning outside some polling stations, about 300 people at one place as the doors opened at 7am. at one place as the doors opened at tam. they are at one place as the doors opened at 7am. they are going at one place as the doors opened at tam. they are going to close in a couple of hours here. hispanics here were saying that they are determined td were saying that they are determined to get out and show donald trump that they do not like the way he has been talking about immigrants and that they are concerned about what he would do if he became president. this particular demographic does not vote as a homogenous bloc, but the majority of latinos
are in favour of hillary clinton. on the other side, people in the western united states, which has more than a streak of libertarianism through it and more than a streak of individualism, say that they think donald trump would allow them to get on with business and would get america working again. so there is plenty of support for mr trump here too. james is in las vegas, clark county, the biggest county in nevada. it has been trending towards mrs clinton throughout this campaign but there are other parts of nevada, the desert areas are more trump. reno is more trump. it is really purple at the moment. remember what mark twain said when he went to reno. he said i went to reno and soon realised this was not a place for a young presbyterian, so i did not long remain one. that is the kind of
effect reno has on you. emily, what have you got for us? i have a caveat first, because we haven't got a huge percentage of the votes in any of these places, but i want you to compare what we are getting in some of those key swing states. it is absolutely neck and neck in florida, clinton marginally in front if you go to a decimal place. 1 clinton marginally in front if you go to a decimal place. i can't think that we will get this one very quickly. ohio is a different picture. we have only got 12% of the moh picture. we have only got 12% of the votes counted, so there is a long way to go. but on this first reading, she takes the lead. in the rust belt suspect that he had the most chance of taking tonight, he spent a lot of time in rust belt, he
has appealed directly to the workers worried about their jobs and the economy, he hopes to take rust belt and he still -- he hopes to take ohio and he still could. she also takes the lead in north carolina. we have got even fewer votes counted there. we don't even show you the numbers until it goes above 5%, so we are very conscious that we have a long way to go. we also hear that we might not get a full result from north carolina because there was so much debate about these opening and closing times of the polling stations. we were warned an hour ago that we might not hear the result from their although it could still be protected if there a big difference. did they not know the election was coming? they forgot. it came as a surprise!
so those are three of the races we are watching. three of the races we are watching. i will keep watching virginia for you as well and see how that is bait you as well and see how that is shifting depending on the areas we are getting the precincts in from but some interesting stuff, with clinton the lead. i am going to update us on the senate races. the democrats have got a pick-up in the senate. that is tammy duckworth. she is a very interesting woman. she served in the iraq war and lost both her legs. she has beaten mark kirk, who was the republican she was running against. that will be good for hillary clinton tonight. that is hugely important. this was the state most likely that we would pick-up, but republicans only have 54 seats but republicans only have 54 seats in the senate, so if we can take four or five seats tonight,
that will be hugely they will be harder to win the house. you would have to win 30 seats in the house to tip the balance. but if we can get four or five in the senate, that will be particularly important. there will be no landslide victory for democrats in the senate. evan bike , for democrats in the senate. evan bike, who is trying to come back to the senate in indiana, it has not been called yet, but he is struggling. there was an expectation that he was going to do well. he left six years ago and stayed in washington, became a lobbyist, had an efficiency apartment in indiana that he never used. is that one that has low voltage? a tiny apartment. interesting as his rearrangements are, we have more results from emily. a couple of
new projections, southern states going for donald trump. not a big surprise, they were trump. not a big surprise, they were in his tally. big surprise, they were in his tally. not a big surprise, they were in his tally. but tennessee wasn't impossible to lose. al gore losing it when he ran for president, his home state. but many of these predictable states, colouring red. but reassuring for trump that he could still be on track. short by 213 college votes, trying to get to that magic number of 270. clinton is short by 202. at this point in the race it looks even, but the stuff that's happening below the water, florida, virginia, north carolina and pennsylvania, those are the ones td and pennsylvania, those are the ones to watch. it's only 8:20pm.
we want you with us for a while. where else are they going to go? we can get a bit more on donald trump and how his presidency, were he to be elected, would affect not just the united states, but america's allies as well. andrea spoke earlier to the former director of the cia. we have the former nato secretary-general joining us now from london. you and joining us now from you and i have spoken about this before in terms of what donald trump has said about nato. the former director of the cia says it doesn't matter, it doesn't need to be taken seriously. are you concerned about what mr trump said about nato? absolutely. he has raised doubt about the american commitment to defending allies. and whether he is elected or not, and 1 allies. and whether he is elected or not,
and i don't think he will be elected president, that has been undermining the credibility of our alliance. for europe, it's good news that clinton will probably be the united states president. what was it united states what was it in mr trump's objection to nato members paying their fair share, which they haven't all been doing, that was objectionable? he does have ej that was objectionable? he does have a point that america has been carrying the security of europe for too long, and it's time for european nations to pay up. yeah, i fully agree that the europeans should invest more in defence. we also decided to do that at the nato summit in wales in september, 2014. all 28 allies signed up to the pledge that within the next decade they would
reach the 2% benchmark. the good news is that in 2016 the europeans invest much more in defence than they did in 2015. i'm sure that the europeans realise that after president putin's aggression against the ukraine, we are in a quite new security situation and that calls for more defensive investment. even if donald trump doesn't win the election tonight, are you concerned about what his nomination for the republican party, and the amount of support he has got during this campaign, tells you about europe, and america's commitment to involvement in international affairs? absolutely. even if he is not elected, he represents an isolationist movement represents an isolationist movement in
the united but, fortunately clinton represents another approach. a president clinton would clearly lead. she has said in a speech that the united states can and should lead. and i fully agree with her. we need a determined american global leadership and i'm sure she would represent that. thank you for joining us, former nato secretary-general. is it fair to say that hillary clinton is more of a hawk than barack obama and would lead america in a more interventionist direction? i'm thinking specifically of an area like syria where she has supported a no-fly zone where your former boss didn't. she pressed on syria and an intervention in libya which
president obama eventually agreed with. his campaign was promised on opposition to the war in iraq in 2008. he thought entanglement for the united states in the middle east was a bad thing. it's been difficult for the situation. i think she's more cautious than she used to be, but at the end of the day i think she has been in favour of intervention more times than president obama. she has close relationships with members of the military and former generals who have advised her. she supported the surge in afghanistan and was prone a proponent of involvement in the middle east. i also think that she has developed an incredibly close relationship with our allies. like the united kingdom.
she is running the united kingdom. she is running in a contest where a president trump has in fact embraced some of our adversaries at the same time as he has alienated many of our allies. 1 think a president clinton would be very conscientious with those relationships. she's not there yet. she also faces a tremendous problem u she also faces a tremendous problem on her left. she was in a serious primary with bernie sanders' supporters. millennials were not happy with her hawkish stance. if she is elected, or if donald trump is elected for that matter, this would be the most unfavourable and disliked president this country has ever had. they wouldn't have a mandate to lead and they will be on the defence from day one. she will have to worry about hearing it from the right and also her own left blank. it will be a difficult line for her to walk.
we'll be democratic congressional make up the more to the left after today? -- wylfa democratic. i think both parties will move closer to their base them to the middle. we saw that in the success of the bernie sanders candidacy. on the policy front, there is a great war weariness in the country after a decade of involvernent the country after a decade of involvement in afghanistan and iraq. involvement in afghanistan and iraq. i think a president clinton would exercise caution in response to that as well. mr trump was most explicit, and you could say even extreme, in his attitude towards nato, but the fact is even a clinton presidency wouldn't be able to continue to bankroll 70% of the nato budget and lula bankroll 70% of the nato budget and meet the massive naval build-up of chinese naval power in the pacific. something will have to give, whether it's mr trump or mrs clinton. and florida, 61% of
precincts in and mr trump is 49-48 hillary clinton. still close. another close place we expect is ohio and we can go to barbara in cleveland. the polls here, the unofficial tracking shows quite a close race. we don't know the results yet, but i'm in a democratic stronghold. yet there are ball democratic stronghold. yet there are still people here who support mr trump. that includes james, a seminary student who joins me now. includes james, a seminary student who joins me now. (tm seminary student who joins me now. you have been a republican for a long time. it must have been lonely td long time. it must have been lonely to be one in this county. been lonely to be one in this county. is this bait to be one in this county. is this shifting and mr trump has grown things up in the air and he's maybe getting more support here now? cleveland have the republican national convention which was great for state. getting some republican energy into the area, which it never eea energy into the area, which it never has. but even need governor john
kasich wouldn't come to the national convention, which was incredibly disappointing. does that worry you that the republican leadership here that the republican leadership here in ohio has pretty much disowned mr yeah, it worries me a lot. john kasich claims to be a christian, and if everyone accept jcsts christian, and if everyone accept jesus and the sacrifice he made, that chasm would be closed and it would change everything. that's the most important thing. why aren't you supporting mr trump if you are a strong supporter of jesus, do you think he supports jesus? a lot of people say that he is, i'm not sure. he's certainly raised up by god right now to be god's man in this moment. i have no doubt. because he has a great chance to win. a lot of republicans would see him is not a very convincing christian or social conservative. i'm not saying he's necessarily a christian but you can bull necessarily a christian but you can still be used by god and not
necessarily be a christian. but what would he do? he is completely against abortion, for instance. he would defund planned parenthood, which i care about greatly. hillary wanted to support planned parenthood as much as she could, even supporting partial birth abortion which is a crime against humanity and against god. mr trump has been criticised strongly for his attitudes towards women and muslims. (tm attitudes towards women and muslims. you don't see these things as important? i don't see them as what the media is making them out to be. what the media is making them out to be. when hillary is on stage with jay-z, who is one of the worst misogynists... come on! trump's potty mouth can't be compared to leaving people to die in benghazi and giving our enemies nuclear weapons. a potty mouth is not a parable to that. we are getting into the
language of good and evil here. james talking to me, one of mr trump's supporters in a democratic stronghold of cleveland. inaudible let's take a look at what we have so far. states that have been projected on the map on the floor in front of me. there is more red, but what hillary clinton is deriving her strength from is the states in the belt in the top north-east part of the usa where we have a lot of voters. she's packing in some handy electoral college votes in the new england area. but we will go down south to florida. those 29 electoral college
votes in florida. this is what we know from our exit poll. you will have heard talk about what's coming out of the state. you can see the parts of the state that have already reported in. the red rural areas, republican areas mostly. we are waiting for the areas around miami, tampa bay and orlando, those more democratic areas are yet to report. that's why it seems tight and the percentages we have had so far. and the percentages we have had so lclell and the percentages we have had so far. i will now look at the racial profile in florida. the white proportion of the electorate in florida, just more than half. black at 17%, hispanic at 24%. the white percentage has gone down from around 77, 80% 35 years ago. that's a real change in state we are seeing. we can see what the white vote
has done. as far as we can tell from the exit poll, this is this year's election, 62% going for trump. trump has a big advantage among white voters. 34% going for clinton. if i compare it to last time, you can see that it actually isn't that much powerful a vote for trump in 2016 than it was for mitt romney in 2012. and mitt romney for the republicans lost the state in 2012, it was won by obama. hillary clinton is down in the white vote, that's true. but is now looking at the hispanic vote, 24% of the electorate. it was about 3% 24% of the electorate. it was about 9% hispanic in the early 805, 24% of the electorate. it was about 9% hispanic in the early 80s, it's now 24%. you can see how powerfully that vote is going for hillary clinton. 62%-33%. if you add in the other
minorities, african-americans, esel other minorities, african-americans, asian voters in florida, you get to ej asian voters in florida, you get to a situation where you might think hillary clinton can overwhelm trump's advantage with the whites. the difference from last time is modest. clinton up a couple of percentage points from what barack obama did last time. but trump is doing much worse than mitt romney. it is crucial to say obama won the state in 2012, and clinton, by these figures, might well be on course to doing the same. back to you, andrew. all eyes on florida at the moment. 68% of precincts in and mr trump ahead by 1%, 49-48. a difference of 63,000 votes. we will keep an eye on that and come back to it. for the moment, we can catch up with the news with
clive myrie. the polls have closed in more than half the states across america and they are now being counted. including in several key battle ground areas. high turnout has been reported. here's laura bicker. decision day 2016. the campaign might have been ugly but voters turned out in their millions. around 16 million told pollsters it was their first time. with dusk falling across the east coast the lines were ball across the east coast the lines were still long. in colorado you could even stay in the car and hope. a high turnout could be a good sign for the woman who wishes to be the first female president. hillary clinton voted close to her home in new york surrounded by close supporters. it's the most humbling feeling, because i know how much responsibility goes with this. so many people are counting on the outcome of this election, what it means for our country, and i will do
the very best i can if i'm fortunate enough to win today. a few miles away, her arrival also cast his ballot. in florida, as the votes were counted, there were signs of how bitter and divisive the campaign has become. at least one couple are no longer talking to each other. for the candidates, a tense evening ahead as counting gets underway and they can only watch and wait. at least one person has been shot dead near a polling station in the state of california, and three others have been injured. witnesses say the attacker, who was heavily armed, opened fire on a group of people 40 kilometres east of los angeles. the gunman then barricaded wluesy angeles. the gunman then barricaded himself into a house, with police urging residents to stay indoors. the british banker rurik jutting has been found
quilty of murdering two indonesian women in hong kong. their mutilated bodies were found in his apartment in november 2000 14. in a statement read by his lawyer in court, jutting expressed remorse for the killings. he has been sentenced td the killings. he has been sentenced to life in jail. five people suspected of recruiting for so-called islamic state have been arrested in a series of raids been arrested in a series of raids in they include an iraqi lubld in germany. they include an iraqi man known as the preacher without a face. the arrest took place in the north and west of the country. prince harry has issued a strongly worded statement criticising the media for their treatment of his girlfriend, the american actress meghan markle. he said the media had subjected her to a wave of abuse and harassment, some of which had racial undertones. they met in toronto earlier this year. rumours of their relationship surfaced a few weeks ago. relationship surfaced a few weeks ago. some of the stories since have angered
harry, so in what kensington palace acknowledges is an unusual step, a statement was issued on harry's behalf. the past week, it says, has seen a line crossed. the reference to racial undertones arises because ms markle's mother as an african-american. harry evidently now feels duty-bound to try to shield her. the statement says, prince harry is worried about ms markle's safety. there is nothing new about a member of the royal family seeking some privacy or a tabloid media determined to grant as little as possible. this isn't a game, said harry today. the problem for him is that some editors appear td for him is
that some editors appear to believe that it is. that's it. now back to andrew and katty. here in times square, it is just beginning to hot up as the counting gets more than under way. it is a mixed picture, with many fascinating results still to be determined. but let's give you what we know now. this is the date of the race as we go to our drone shot high over times square. hillary clinton has 68 electoral college roads and donald trump 66, both a long way from the 270 that you need to become the next president of the
united states. this is turning out to be an even more interesting night than any of us thought. before we go back to the presidential election, katty, more bad news for the democrats' hope of taking the senate. yes, there are six taking the senate. yes, there are bhs taking the senate. yes, there are six or seven senate races we have been watching, the ones that could swing the senate from the republicans to the democrats. one of those races is in indiana. it is between the democrat evan bayh andy republican todd young. evan bayh was ej republican todd young. evan bayh was a senate from indiana before. bayh was a senate from indiana before. evan bayh was a senate from indiana before. he jumped into the race in july and surprised everybody, and he jumped surprised everybody, and he jumped in with a very healthy that lead evaporated, and it looks like the democrat has lost to todd young, ej the democrat has lost to todd young, a three-time congressman and former marine. todd young has been an interesting candidate because so many of these senate and congress races, they have had to think,
what do i do as a republican about donald trump? when all those revelations came out about donald trump's harassment of women, you had a slew of republicans distancing themselves from donald trump. he was one of them, who threatened to withdraw his support from donald trump. they have all been threading the middle on this one. he threatened to withdraw his support, but he didn't actually do it. the state of indiana went to donald trump for the presidential race. now it looks like the republicans have got the senate seat as well. so from the senate's point of view, it is looking good for republicans. we will have to see how the other key races end up. they will have to win pennsylvania and wisconsin. with every minute that goes by, florida just becomes more intriguing,, goes by, florida just becomes more intriguing, gemili. even as i have refreshed the page is katty was
speaking, you can see what is happening in florida. trump is leading by more than 1%. there are about 95,000 votes between them, but as things stand, with 70% of the precincts now in, we are well clear of halfway and he definitely has a lead. don't forget, this was only won by obama at the end by 1%. said td won by obama at the end by 1%. said to have that 1% lead now, well, it could even out and be replaced by a clinton lead. but as things stand, his campaign team will be excited about the prospect that florida is ball about the prospect that florida is still possible as part of his road td still possible as part of his road to victory. trump seems to be leading in virginia. 63% of the moh leading in virginia. 63% of the votes are in. these are big numbers votes are in. these are big numbers in terms of the electoral college which will make up their eventual
tally, so they are watching these races closely. virginia is somewhere where clinton would have felt safe. obama won it twice. this could still mean that the ones who have not been counted yet are in the more urban, democrat voting precincts. but as things stand, trump is ahead. ohio is almost the wrong way around. virginia and ohio, we would have thought he would be leading in ohio and she would be leading in virginia. but as things stand, even fewer of the votes have been counted fewer of the votes have been counted in ohio, but she has taken the let me bring you up-to-date with the map and see what has been called. in the last few minutes, we have had alabama as well. everything in blue is democrat, and don't ignore the swathe of the north-east that has come in. everything in red is for donald trump. and they are still going all guns to get to
the 270, but it feels quite tight now. very tight. and as the democrats struggle td tight. and as the democrats struggle to get control of the senate, it is not yet out of their reach, but it is more difficult than it looked an hour ago, major agencies are confirming that the republicans have kept control of the house of representatives. that is no surprise, the republicans have a big majority there. the biggest majority majority there. the biggest majority in the house of representatives since 1928. the house of representatives has never changed hands in a presidential year since 1952, when it changed from democrat td 1952, when it changed from democrat to republican. there is a name for that change. it is called the eisenhower wave, because that huge change took place as general eisenhower became president of the united states. so probably a reduced majority, but the republicans are sure of having at least one of the two
legislative arms of this country. there are unconfirmed reports that mr trump is still ahead by 0. 8% in florida. there are also reports that working class turnout reports that working class turnout in michigan is higher than expected, which is good news for mr trump as suddenly, this race remains very much a race. let's go to trump headquarters to get some reaction to this. laura trevelyan is there. joining me now is carl palladino, chair of the new york state trump campaign. how is the night looking by campaign. how is the night looking so far to you? w is the night looking so far to you? how is the night looking so far to you? pretty much as expected so far, but this is the wild time right now. it is the crazy time when all the anxiety is building up. we don't have any good numbers yet. when the numbers go above 70
or 80%, it will be clearer. we do have a high percentage of the vote counted in florida. that is key for you. we have had over 90% of the vote in, so i would hope that it will hold. obviously, florida brings bb will hold. obviously, florida brings us a lot of anxiety because to replace florida, we would need something like new york to slide over. let's say you win florida. that is 29 votes. how do you get to 270 in the electoral college from there? well, we would be michigan or another blue state to come over to us. my feeling is that given the turnout figures we had today, new york is in play. carl palladino, chair of the new york state trump campaign, thank you
for joining us. that is the view from inside the trump campaign. it is still early in the night, although i quess you could say that the trump campaign are little happier than they would have been an hour ago, when it looked as if it was beginning to slip away from them. now for both sides, there is still all to play del sides, there is still all to play for. let's go to london and nigel farage now. when i left london, he was still the interim leader of ukip. he is in our mailbag studio. -- mailbag studio. how is your man doing? very well. this is a hell of a run for an independent candidate. of a run for an independent candidate. we had today that w bush didn't vote for him, that john kasich, the governor of ohio, voted for hillary clinton, so he has
been completely deserted by the upper echelons of his own party, without anything like the campaign funds that hillary had. and here he is, neck and neck in this race. fascinating. so if he is an independent candidate as you call them, although when i looked at the ballot paper, he seemed to be running as a republican, if he wins, would you expect him to govern as what you call an independent? no. if he wins, i think there will be big changes in the republican party. it is clear that the party is doing well in the senate. that is doing well in the house of representatives. and yet he has been stabbed in the back by so many in his own party. so i suspect that if he wins, there will be quite a blood-letting that goes on within the republican party. does it not make you nervous that someone that you
have become quite close to, i understand, if he was to become president, seems to have very little time for nato or the defence of europe, at a time when russia seems more threatening since the days of the soviet union? in general on foreign policy, it is hillary that is the hawk. she supported endless foreign wars, not trump. on nato, yes, he has made the point that all the member states need to pull their weight and they have not been doing so. weight and they have not been doing so. but i do think the british relationship with trump, if he becomes president, to make sure we maintain nato as a viable force, our role in that will be crucial. when it comes to putin, there are two approaches. one is to go on provoking him, and i feel the european union and america have been doing that over the last few years. the other way is to try and
talk to him. jaw jaw is better than war war. we have a global audience on the bbc, but to indulge in our own backyard for a minute, in what way would donald trump be good for the uk? donald trump likes the united kingdom. he believes in the special relationship. he said we would be at the front of the queue. to have an american president who respects us, particularly now we will become an independent and self-governing country, is a marked difference to the time of president obama or what hillary would offer. trump likes this country. and if there is a trump presidency, have you considered american citizenship, getting him to appoint as ambassador td getting him to appoint as ambassador to brussels? it has been speculated on and joked about! gosh, if i got a green card and went to brussels, wouldn't that be fun? but i don't really think it's going to
happen. but you would like it, you can be honest with us. all right, yes! laughter he would have to do an awful lot of fundraising as american ambassador. they appoint them to bring in the money. mr farage would have to turn money. mr farage would have to turn in the big bucks. would have to turn in the big bucks. i would be a pretty good fundraiser. exactly. nige! farage, thank you for joining us. nice to see you, good old blighty in the background. see you, good old blighty in the background. nice to see you, good old blighty in the background. katty, what do you make of things so far? it's looking tighter than we thought half an hour ago. the clinton campaign will be watching virginia closely. mixed reports coming from florida as to which counties haven't yet reported, whether any of the big democratic strongholds in the south, people talking about brow at county. lg people talking about brow at county. as it reported or not reported yet?
even if it has, is it enough to swing back the 125,000 gap donald trump seems to have created in florida? we will keep an eye on florida as well as virginia and also moscow. let's head to russia. we always like to keep an eye on moscow. that's why we have nato! going to russia, donald trump hasn't 82% approval rating in russia at the moment. the bbc's steve rosenberg is there at a watch party in moscow. what time is it and what's the latest? it's very surreal. i'm in an english pub in moscow with a group of russian political activists watching the american presidential election results. all of the people election all of the people i have spoken to here are supporters of donald trump. a short while ago they brought in a big portrait of donald
trump and vladimir putin and marine le pen. it wasn't exactly vincent van gogh but you get the idea. people are following carefully the florida voting at the moment. re following carefully the florida voting at the moment. there were cheers earlier as trump edged ahead there. vladimir putin, a few days ago, said it edged ahead there. vladimir putin, a ey ce eerie nes edged ahead there. vladimir putin, a few days ago, said it was utter nonsense to suggest that he favoured donald trump in this election. but certainly in recent weeks, state media in russia has been lavishing praise on the republican candidate. portraying him as the underdog and as the crusader against a corrupt washington elite. they have been van basten in hillary clinton. it's quite clear that for moscow it would be better to have a president trump be better to have a president trump in the white house than a president -- they have been van --
lambasting. i think that's the busiest bar we had a look at tonight. during the course of the campaign we sent out one of our teams of reporters on the trans-siberian express from moscow td trans-siberian express from moscow to vladivostok and they were all talking about donald trump. and they loved him. it's one of those countries in the world where opinion of donald trump runs very high. we shouldn't forget their view of donald trump is, how should 1 shouldn't forget their view of donald trump is, how should i put it, filtered through the largely kremlin controlled media. it's not surprising he is rather popular there. that was moscow, we can go to london now. every american presidential election, the us embassy in london throws a huge party, and we would like to thank the american taxpayer for that at this moment. every four years, it's very good of you to do that. we can head to the us embassy in london. (tm head to the us embassy in london. you were talking about packed bars,
the bar at the us embassy has been packed all night. 1500 people invited, nonpartisan affair, democrats and republicans given equal allocation of tickets. all scrupulously by the book. the ambassador is with me. thank you for having me. american elections always the subject of great fascination around the world. in the diplomatic circles you move in, have you noticed more interest or, dare 1 say, concern in this one? the circles i travel in aren't as diplomatic as the viewers might think. 1 diplomatic as the viewers might think. i went to 155 secondary schools around the uk and did a workshop with nearly 20,000 british sixth form students, giving them a blank piece of paper and saying what concerns you frustrates you about america. politics comes up. these people are paying attention and they have high standards. it's not limited to the young people, 1 have high standards.
it's not limited to the young people, i hear it from grown-ups like us. they are paying attention, and they should. and we are paying in attention in america as to what's going on in your country. should we be concerned that regardless of who wins tonight, america seems to be moving slightly closer, incrementally, towards a position of more insularity and less engagement with the rest of the world. should the rest of the world be worried about that? speaking to the current administration, president obama from day one has made the opposite argument. he said to his fellow americans, if we want to be more peaceful and prosperous, we have to engage with the world, not pull back from it. many americans don't accept that. if the results we are seeing coming in are anything to go by. we will see how it plays out tonight. we have a history in our country, going back to world war 11, 75 years ago today when you guys were getting bombarded, where
were we, and if we are honest with ourselves, we weren't with you yet. it took us a while , weren't with you yet. it took us a while, but we got there. same thing while, but we got there. same thing in world war 1, a long-time delayed, but when we get helpful and hands-on, we do amazing things together. look what we did to fight ebola. as a nation we resisted, tried to pull back, which is understandable. but if we explained to the british and american people that to be engaged makes you more peaceful and prosperous, that is the argument the leaders have to make. ambassador, thank you for joining us. a few more hours to go yet. people at this party watching the big screen and waiting to see who will be the choice of the american people. they should pace themselves. looks like they will be there a long time before the result of the presidential election of 2016 is clear. we can take a look
at the clinton headquarters in new york. it's over in the javits conference centre, over on the west side of the city. the result, north carolina, where mrs clinton is two points ahead at the moment. not all the moh ahead at the moment. not all the votes in by any means. . not all the votes in by any means. everybody a little bit subdued now. they are looking up and trying to work out what's going on. they might be like that for a while. no razzmatazz on either side yet. going to the trump camp, just half a dozen blocks to the east, but still on the west side. there are too is the donald trump campaign. i'm told it's a bit of a zoo outside, partly because of the media, you can't trust them to behave these days. again, pretty subdued. both sides waiting and wondering to see how
this election pans out. waiting for a crucial, toss up swing state to declare, so they get a sense of which way it's going. it's just before 9pm. that's new york, east coast time. some more states about to close. 14 more at 9pm. we will start to get news from the mountain states, places like colorado, new mexico, arizona. if clinton has a good night she should take colorado and new mexico. a really good night for her, and she will take arizona. if they look dodgy or there are tight races there, not coming in straightaway, she's not having a good night. trump has gone all out to get michigan. he thinks it will have the same demographic as ohio. if he starts to move into that territory, the great lakes and the northern blue territory, then he would be having a very good
night indeed. looking at the list, all in their glory, 14 more to come in. the once at the top might take longer. they are expected td might take longer. they are expected to be closer races. . they are expected to be closer races. we should get a slew of those very quickly on 9pm. et a slew of those very quickly on 9pm. the key races we can't take our eyes off. florida, virginia and ohio. donald trump has the lead in florida, in virginia and is just off florida, in virginia and is just off in we only have 28% of the precincts in, but we have three quarters of them here. on those two counts, he will be feeling more confident than we were expecting at this point in the night. i'm sure he is, emily. the key so far is that the result remains entirely uncertain. financial markets hate uncertainty.
they are open in the far east. we can go to the north american correspondent on the roof of the bbc studios, michelle fleury. how are the markets in the far east reacting so far? strangely, even though we talk about the far eastern markets, one indicator to keep an eye on is the mexican peso. it all has to do with what donald trump has had to say on immigration. tough els had to say on immigration. tough talk on immigration, building a wall and imposing higher trade tariffs. all this could have a negative effect on america's neighbour and mexico's economy. it's something we've heard a lot about on the campaign trail. donald trump even singling out ford, the american car company who moved a car company over the border into mexico. he would slap a 30% tax on vehicles coming into america from mexico made by
ford. that sort of talk has made investors pay close attention to the mexican peso. thank you, michelle. here we talk of nothing else but the mexican peso. in fact, we should have bought some. what happened to all these counties swinging to hillary clinton? a couple of points, clinton's florida person said are a that clinton was doing extraordinarily well in the urban areas, but trump is doing very well areas, but trump is doing very well in the extra urban areas, outside the there was an expectation he would struggle there, but he's not. with the votes in florida at the moment, and the upshot of the new york times, which has done a lot of work on this, earlier projected, about an hour ago that they thought trump might win, but their chief analyst now says they don't know how many results are left in south florida. they think about 729,000 votes
that could go to [ellfy) c about 729,000 votes that could go to clinton, largely to clinton, that would make that up, but this might go on for a long time. in virginia, the big counties out our fairfax and prince william which are heavily democratic. those will probably not clie] democratic. those will probably not end up in trump's camp, but he has obviously found some surprising results in places that in the early evening we didn't expect. looking at the virginia gap, it's a sizeable gap to make up for clinton. a lot of moh gap to make up for clinton. a lot of votes in those counties. it's looking tighter than anyone in the clinton camp would like. it's looking tighter as the time goes on. even in those counties that seemed td even in those counties that seemed to be a slam dunk for mrs clinton, we have seen trump do very well. the polls have shot at 9pm in the central part of the usa. north dakota, south
dakota, nebraska, except for the city of of omaha. all those coming up for mr trump and the republicans, giving him the lead for the first time in about an hour. he's now on 123 electoral college votes. hillary clinton 97. she is short by 173. the ones we are looking for are the too close to [ell looking for are the too close to call ones. new mexico, colorado, arizona. there was a point where we even wondered, when it looked like it could possibly be a convincing, emphatic win for hillary clinton, we belact emphatic win for hillary clinton, we started wondering whether texas, the deep red republican state could even be in the purple zone, a bit undecided. but going into it, we don't have any numbers yet,
but the fact it has been polled so quickly means it was never in any doubt. if there are hispanics voting democrat there are hispanics voting democrat in texas, they're not enough of it yet to change the colour of the state but this might come through in election cycles to going back td election cycles to come. going back to the map, has anything else been added in? you can see how its colouring up in the central part, the wyoming, mountain states, trump with a lead of 123-97. don't jump to conclusions yet. as we keep going back to, there are very close races, too close to call. no real results from any of the real battle grounds yet. at the moment it is practically a dead heat in florida, ohio and north carolina. it wasn't quite meant to be this way.
are you beginning to feel a bit nervous for mrs clinton? feel a bit nervous for mrs clinton? [eu] feel a bit nervous for mrs clinton? i am feeling incredibly anxious. it's a real nailbiter. in a sense, not only nervous for the prospects of us electing our first female president, but what we see tonight in the states you have mentioned will tell us a lot about the future of the country, its political philosophy, what the electorate expects and whether or not the country is even more divided than we feel it is, as we have seen during this campaign. are you beginning to think that maybe mr trump is doing better than you would have thought? i think he is. the fact that he is up a little bit in virginia, 1 i think he is. the fact that he is up a little bit in virginia, i never anticipated that. 1 up a little bit in virginia, i never anticipated that. i thought mona would have gone for mrs clinton. we are neck and neck in florida. -- 1 thought north carolina would have gone for mrs clinton. donald trump is in a good spot right now that 1 don't think he would have
anticipated. pat if donald trump does as well for the rest of the night and manages to swing those three big ones, do you share any of michelle's concerns about what this tells us about just how divided america has become? are you getting ej america has become? are you getting a sense of who has voted for him and who for hillary clinton? i think we will wake up tomorrow and america will be as divided and polar as we have been in decades, whoever wins. how do we recover and move on? we are alienated by gender, race, and age. and religion. how do americans find unity, regardless of what happens tonight, to bring ourselves together? a democratic poll which came out recently from a nonpartisan research group in the states came out a year ago, and in that poll it showed that about a third
of republicans don't just disagree with democrats global macro policies, they see them as a threat to the nation. almost as many democrats see republicans as a threat to the nation. that's very different from how it has been in america. increasingly, americans live divided lives. they are breaking into tribes. they don't go to the same schools, they don't live in the same areas they don't parent the same way, they don't consume the same media. i think we are probably seeing those divides in the course of this election. i think that washington, dc is broken. republicans and democrats don't talk to each other. how can you effectively govern if you are not sitting down at the table to try and find a way to negotiate? that isn't going to get easier on the evidence of tonight. that is the challenge, especially if the senate remains in the hands
of the republicans. we will have a divided house. if we see obstruction, as we saw throughout president obama's administration, whether it is clinton or trump, because not all donald's policy editions are what republicans consider to be republican principles stop he is anti-free-trade, isolationist. how will they republican congress deal with president trump? if you are a fully paid-up democrat and your kid says that he or she is going to marry a republican, i have seen it suggested that you are now really upset, and the same is true the other way. republicans don't want their kids to marry democrats, and that what -- that was not true 20 or 30 years ago. we haven't even mentioned pennsylvania yet. we are still trying to determine the outcome of other states. but pennsylvania would still play a key role in determining the outcome of this
election. pennsylvania is a real honeypot for the republicans. the map shows the states we have projected. so it is where we think we are so far in the election. i will flash pennsylvania. last time it went red was when george bush senior was elected, that one term president in 1988, so going back quite a way. let's talk about the state. let's look at education in the state and try and break it down. education in pennsylvania. we are going back to the 60s to look at the number of roger east and nongraduates. by large in pennsylvania, nearly everybody was nongraduates, didn't have a degree. nongraduates, didn't have a degree. -- the number of nongraduates and graduates. much the same trend in lots of western democracies. e same trend in lots of western democracies. much the same trend in lots of western democracies. now you have a much better educated pennsylvania. 28%
with degrees. not dramatic, but clearly an increase in people with degrees in pennsylvania. that is relevant because we know that nongraduates are much more likely to vote for donald trump. he is once again having to super energised a part of the electorate that has fallen. now we come to the wall. let's break this down and focus in even more and ask for white college educated parts of the electorate. graduates, 44%. these are white voters with a college education in pennsylvania. how are they voting, based on the exit holes we got in 2016 in this election? -- exit holes. they are going for hillary clinton, not by a huge margin. let's break it down again and come to the wall and choose a different catchment. nongraduates now. again, whites in
pennsylvania without a degree. now falling, few of them, how are they voting? dramatically voting for trump, according to our exit holes. 62% going for trump and 34% going for hillary clinton. we were talking about divided america. once you start splitting voters apart, you get marked differences about their choices in this election. the interesting thing i would suggest about pennsylvania is the kind of divisions we have been talking about in the country are there in the raw in pennsylvania itself. absolutely right. you have got, obviously, philadelphia, the cities, the democrats, increasing urbanisation, more and more young college graduates. you have so got a 13
part of pennsylvania, not just the rural areas but the rust belt, the parts being a pain that goes even back before the financial crisis, and map is stark. it is red and blue and you feel as you look at it, never the twain shall meet. what's really interesting is that you put into this division all of the change we are talking about and then you have a candidate like trump who runs to maximise the court. he doesn't go for the centre ground, which is what all politicians do. (tm which is what all politicians do. you look at a state like pennsylvania and, maccabees, where we are in this election at the moment, who knows which way it is going to go? -- and, my goodness. that is the operative question. we have got 84% of precincts reporting have got 84% of precincts reporting in florida and mr trump still has a narrow we are still waiting to see these urban counties, leaning more to
mrs clinton, making a difference. that may still happen, because there are still 60% of precincts to come in. -- 16%. but so far, mr trump is clinging onto that lead. the amazing thing is that 82% of virginia precincts are in and of virginia precinets are in and he has got a 3-point lead. that's remarkable. that will be making the clinton camp very nervous. as we heard earlier, we have to know where those votes are coming from. are their pockets of votes still to be counted? this is looking like a better night for the trump campaign. ing like a better night for the trump campaign. we are joined by an adviser to the trump campaign. betsy, i imagine you are feeling happier than you were an hour ago. yes, but i wanted to address the important question about divisions in the country. prosperity can heal many divisions. as jeremy noted, the rawness
you see is in large measure a feeling that people have that washington had ignored their pain, their economic desperation, their loss of jobs and hope. donald trump's particular campaign, and the reason i support it strongly, is that he has delivered an economic programme that will revitalise these areas. he believes in really pushing... he has proposed that programme. that's right. fossil fuel production. that's important to some of these areas. natural gas and coal in pennsylvania, for example. s and coal in pennsylvania, for example. natural gas and coal in pennsylvania, for example. his corporate tax relief will jump-start the economy and provide more investment and jobs as a result. so what i am saying is, don't despair too much. it looks as if all of these divisions are so baked into our nation but, in fact, 1 believe that, with a period of
real, sustained prosperity, a lot of that healing can occur. but you have had your natural gas revolution and gas prices have collapsed. you are under international obligations on co2 emissions. those are not binding. is he going to break them? i hope the next president will break them. and you think that will bring the country together? i used to be lieutenant governor of new york and the southern part of new york is in agonising poverty because we are not producing natural gas or fracking there. donald trump said, let's maxed out energy production at home and it will provide so many jobs. the argument betsy is making is clearly the economic argument, which is doing so well for mr trump in these areas that you are pointing out, ohio, florida, pennsylvania. west virginia, virginia. why has hillary clinton
failed to make the case that she will be better for the american economy? she polls that she will be less good for that. i will be less good for that. i think there is a split into sections. ere is a split into sections. i think there is a split into sections. under president obama, we have had 73 straight months of private sector job growth. we have seen wages picking up. many americans are starting to feel the dividends of economic recovery, but there are immunities where the core industry has left some americans behind. -- there are communities. whether we have president clinton or president trump, reaching those communities is important. president trump is not proposed a sound economic programme. he has proposed tax breaks for the wealthy which drove us into the financial crisis. we have pursued in ell financial crisis.
we have pursued in all of the above energy strategy under this administration and those jobs have not come back to certain communities, so the notion that he has released a detailed economic plan is a lie. it is very detailed and the most important part of it is slashing business taxes from between 25% and 39% nominal rate to 15. nobody will pay more than 15% tax on income. that is important because businesses in this country are at a tremendous disadvantage. when you see england, canada, ireland and so many other countries slashing business taxes. it is also the case that he has proposed reducing the top tax rate down to 33%, which would be a big windfall for the wealthy of the country. yes, but those are the people who do the investing, but the real key is cutting business taxes and individual
taxes because, don't forget, many small businesses file as individuals, not corporations. donald trump would hold back from our economic alliances all around the world. every time it looked like donald trump might get close to the presidency, the stock market has fallen. i think that is a sign. as an observer of such matters, it's interesting to finally have a debate about policy in this presidential campaign. sadly, the polls have closed several hours ago, so this policy debate can have no effect. so let's go back to the results. a tangible nervousness among democrats on social media. none of these battle ground races are over, they are still being counted, but in florida, absolutely critical battle ground state which obama only won by 1% last time round,
donald trump has the lead with a 49% share of the vote with 89% of the precincts the lead with a 49% share of the vote with 89% of the precinets in. he leads in virginia, 49-48. 83% of precincts in there. he has extended his lead in ohio. only 37% in, so that could change. currently on 52 - 44. we began the night talking about how it was mathematically difficult for donald trump to find a path to the white house. not impossible, but tricky. he needs an inside straight, as they say in poker, needing everything to fall into place. but with those races going the way they are, everything is falling into place. this is how the map is colouring up so far, trump in the lead with 129 of those votes he
needs from 270. clinton currently on 104. if we add up the campaign polls, and you might have doubts about them at this point, but if we efelol about them at this point, but if we add in how the campaign polling left the state of the race, they coloured up all be safe states for either party. the grey ones are the battle grounds we were talking about. i will go into my calculator, pick up the red pen and imagine that he has won the races we have seen him take the lead in. if he has taken florida, virginia, ohio and let's imagine he wins the states mitt romney won in 2012, arizona and north carolina. they were republican last north carolina. they were republican last time around. on these predictions, there is a collective gasp. he's only short
by four. he can get that with new hampshire or lowa or the second congressional district of maine and one other, maybe nevada. if you have just switched on, this isn't the picture. we should have a massive warning sign on. this is the path he could take to victory. his is the path he could take to victory. but that's how the map looks at the moment. t that's how the map looks at the moment. and those are the three we are comparing, and as things stand, they show trump ahead in each one. if he pulls those off it suddenly becomes a whole lot easier. of those three, the one i worry about the most is a trump voter is virginia. generally be counties close to washington, dc are where the government workers live and they tend to vote heavily democratic, they come in last. i'm not counting my virginians yet. still 84% in there. they always come in last.
they are still well-educated. but they count last! ohio, 40% of the precincts in ohio, and mr trump is eight points ahead. we can't project yet but you have to say ohio is trending strongly to donald trump. and it's a state he has to win. yesterday and today, the markets soared on the prospect of a hillary clinton victory. that's what they thought was going to happen. now they have looked at the results come in, the dow jones futures, a financial mechanism that will tell you what will happen when the dow opens on wednesday morning, it's down 300. that's a lot. up 300 before the election, down 300 on the future is now. financial markets not by future is now. financial markets not so clear on the result as
they thought before the markets closed today. we can go straight to clinton headquarters and jon sopel is there. headquarters and jon sopel is there. i suspect they are starting to look ej i suspect they are starting to look a little bit worried there. about an hour ago, and a half ago, every time the new figures came in it was all looking quite good. there were big cheers. everybody in this crowd is either looking at one of the american networks which are being projected on the big screens or looking at their phones and getting increasingly anxious and nervous. this wasn't the evening they had anticipated having looked at the latest polls and the lead into the final days of the campaign. all the organisation they had on the ground, donald trump seems to be pulling off what he managed during the primary races. he didn't have the great ground game and the infrastructure ground game and the infrastructure in place but was able to perform very well on social media and
with his if you are looking at florida, for example, and many other places, you are seeing a real split america. not the splits we have discussed, in terms of disaffected white blue-collar older workers, but fie white blue-collar older workers, but also the differences between the rural communities and the urban. looking at the numbers piling up in the rural areas of florida, and yet it's all about what might happen in the cities, it shows the deep nesmes the cities, it shows the deep fissures in american society that have been brought out. donald trump outperforming what mitt romney managed in republican areas, but in certain urban areas, hillary clinton doing extremely well. it lays bare some of the splits in american society that this election has brought out. what are they looking for then now, do you think? we always knew florida would be close
and it is close. trump ahead at the moment but it's not over yet. 1 quess the biggest surprise for them, quess the biggest surprise for them, i would suggest, is we know some of the northern parts are ball know some of the northern parts are still to report in virginia and they will be more pro-mrs clinton, but in the end, if she were to swing it in virginia, it was never meant to be this difficult there. she hasn't been there since july and stopped spending money there. suddenly it's spending money there. suddenly it's in the contest. but so did he, he thought it was over three or four weeks ago. at the time the access hollywood tape emerged, there was a certain amount of republicans putting distance between themselves and putting distance between themselves putting distance between themselves and his there was a protest outside the republican headquarters which was led by the person who was leading the campaign for trump in virginia. he got into huge trouble over that because he was
furious that donald trump was pulling resources out of virginia, because they thought it was premature. latterly donald trump has gone back into virginia and seems to be doing very well. like florida, where you are waiting for a specific county, in virginia you are waiting for the northern counties that border washington, dc. but virginia was never seen as one of the areas where trump might do very, very well. thank you, john sobel. katty. a quick check in ohio. cleveland, and this is another state we can't [ell and this is another state we can't call yet. 41% of precincts counted and it looks like trump 52-44. you are in a mostly democrat, clinton supporting bar. what are they making of this? watching closely, you are right, a lot of clinton supporters right, a lot of
clinton supporters in this area thinking she might be able to pull it off but not quite different kinds of voting patterns in play. i have a couple of quests to talk them through. edward horowitz is a political communications professor. there has been a lot of talk about mr trump making inroads with so-called blue-collar democrats. is that a really significant issue? here in ohio, the problem democrats face is that the blue-collar workers are less educated, high school less educated white males in particular. they have been energised by donald trump. driving through the metropolitan areas around cleveland do you see lots of signs for donald trump. he is very appealing. those simplicity messages of bringing jobs, turning things around, auto plants returning. they are not clear on how it will happen, but they have faith he will do it for them.
whether it will happen is the big question. if he can take away blue-collar democrats, can mrs clinton take away the affluent republicans in the suburbs? women are the key factor in so many of the races here. in ohio, so many of the suburban women voters have appealed td suburban women voters have appealed to clinton because of the donald trump access hollywood tape where he talked about assaulting women. whether that translates, because of the enthusiasm gap. a lot of people unhappy with hillary clinton and donald trump. whether people showed up at the polls is a different question. but so many people voting early, which seemed indicative of a lot of people supporting hillary clinton. what about the black vote, i'm speaking to michael nelson, the president of the cleveland chapter of the naacp. for hillary clinton to win there would
have to be a tremendous turnout in the black community. one of the issues in that community is enthusiasm and the lack of it. after the ultimate emotional and political achievenent of it. after the ultimate emotional and political achievement of barack obama, anything after that would be ej obama, anything after that would be a significant drop off. i'm not surprised about the lack of enthusiasm, but my concern is that people have to be able to translate ej people have to be able to translate a vote for hillary clinton into their own best interests. sitting it out is not how you do that. they get ej out is not how you do that. they get a lesson from george bush and his wife who didn't vote for either candidate. we have that dichotomy. and then we have the cultural civil war going on, the middle-class blacks against poor blacks, police against blacks, republicans against republicans, and we caught up in that. do you think if the black vote doesn't come up strongly it could lose the state for mrs clinton? obama won ohio by 150,000 votes
in 2012. he went tight in the county where we are doing this interview. ounty where we are doing this interview. she has to get tremendous turnout from the black community for a democrat candidate to be successful. lots of different voting patterns to take into consideration as to who will win the state. but trump as to win it if he wants the path to the white house. cleveland, ohio looking like a nailbiter as well. looking at the reports, one of the big networks the reports, one of the big networks in the united states, cbs, is saying michigan is now a 5%. there is a lot of unconfirmed chatter that mr trump is putting in a strong performance in minnesota. minnesota didn't even vote for ronald reagan. florida, ohio and virginia,
all showing donald trump ahead. this is a really exciting moment for the trump campaign, i think. not only are they starting to feel optimistic about those three, but three brand-new ones that we haven't shown you yet. north carolina, michigan and new hampshire and each have donald trump ahead. michigan is a very interesting one. i remember when he went to michigan and to the town of flint, which suffered a bad water poisoning scandal, and he said that it used to beat you made cars in michigan and flint. now the cars are made in mexico and you can't drink the water in flint. those rust belt states around the great lakes might yet carry his message still further into territories the
democrats never dream they could be in danger of losing. new hampshire, very closely fought, both on 47%, but trump has the lead. it's starting to look like ej the lead. it's starting to look like a much better night for donald trump and a much better night for donald trump a much better night for donald trump and his campaign team than any of the pollsters had predicted before we came on this is how the map has coloured up so far. we still have quite a way to go. none of the races have quite a way to go. none of the lees have quite a way to go. none of the races i have talked about are in yet. they are all in grey and they will stay that way until there is an actual projection and they are called. looking at the list, this is where the polls closed in the last few minutes. these are the ones we've had colouring up. ! these are the ones we've had colouring up. i can show you the share of the national vote. 22% of the country's precincts have voted. this is how the 22% have voted. parts of the west coast and the west are still voting but
mr trump has taken 50%. hillary clinton on 46% of the votes cast so far. the other four percent have probably gone to the other two candidates who have been in the race, the green party and a libertarian candidate. we will have comments from the panel we will have comments from the panel in a moment but we can first of all catch up with the latest news from clive the polls have now closed in all but ten states across america, and the vote tally shows hillary clinton and donald trump running neck and neck in several key battleground areas. here's laura bicker. decision day 2016. the campaign might have been ugly but voters turned out in their millions. around 15% told pollsters it was their first time. with dusk falling across the east coast, the lines were still long. in colorado you could even stay in the car and vote. the biggest battle
seems to be in florida, where exit polls suggest it is too close to call. voters have re-elected republican senator marco rubio, who ran for president against donald trump. florida is an extraordinary place, the collection of all things which made us the greatest nation on earth, people who have lived here for decades, the descendants of slaves, the of immigrants. florida is america and it is an honour to be able to represent this extraordinary state. a high turnout could be a good sign for the woman who wishes to be the first female president. hillary clinton voted close to her home in new york, surrounded by close supporters. she has won that state. it's the most humbling feeling, because i know how much responsibility goes with this. so many people are counting on the outcome of this election, what it means for our country, and i will do the
very best i can if i'm fortunate enough to win today. a few miles away, her rival also cast his ballot. as the votes were counted, there were signs of how bitter and divisive the campaign has become. at least one couple are no longer talking to each other. polls have now closed in wisconsin, where the highest ranking republican where the highest ranking republican in the us looks relaxed, paul ryan, despite distancing himself from the party's for the candidates, weekend evening ahead. as counting gets under way, they can watch and wait. in other news: at least one person has been shot dead near a polling station in the state california, and three others have been injured. witnesses say the attacker, who was heavily-armed, opened fire on a group of people in asuza, 40 kilometres east of los angeles. the gunman then barricaded himself inside a house, with police urging residents nearby to stay indoors.
the british banker rurik jutting has been found quilty of murdering two indonesian women in hong kong. their mutilated bodies were found in his apartment in november 2014. in a statement read by his lawyer in court, jutting expressed remorse for the killings, and accepted his actions were "horrific". prince harry has criticised media coverage of his relationship with the american actress meghan markle, saying she's been subjected to a "wave of abuse and harassment". in a statement, the prince said he'd tried to develop a thick skin about the level of interest in his private life, but the past week had seen "a line crossed". iraqi forces say they've retaken the first neighbourhood close to the centre of the city of mosul, as they continue to battle so-called islamic state. our middle east correspondent, quentin sommerville, is one of the first broadcasters to reach the newly recaptured saddam district, on the north-eastern side of mosul. with heavy armour and caution, mosul
city was reached tonight. iraqi special forces pushed forward in the dark and under fire. we've just moved five kilometres from the east right inside mosul city centre. we're about three kilometres from the nineveh ruins, which really is the heart of this city. as you can hear, this is still a very active area. it's far more dangerous than where we were before. islamic state were here this morning. that's it. now back to andrew and katty. we are back in times square for this presidential
race. it is getting more interesting and uncertain. let's go up-to-date and go to our drone camera in times square. there is the bbc billboard. mrs clinton, 104 electoral college votes. donald trump, 137. the magic number to become the next president is 270 so ej become the next president is 270 so a way to go yet. coming back to you as a trump supporter, the night is clearly going better for him than anybody thought. michigan has been called for mrs clinton. it has been narrower than people thought, but they are still calling it. if that is the case, his road to the white house is still narrow. it is, but one thing we can take from this regardless of the outcome, and that is that donald trump have exceeded the expectations of the media and the political
class and he has set the stage for a real political revolution in the united states, because you can see from the popular vote that millions and millions of americans want a straight talking, honest nonpolitician in government. the days when only the political class can run for these offices... this is essentially a contest between a builder and a blabber. which is which? somebody who makes buildings for a living and somebody who has made a living out of being a politician ansel -- and talking about politics. there is a lot of talk about somebody on the outside coming in. wood but isn't it worrying that a lot of the buildings went bankrupt? he is in the real estate business. each building is a separate business and it is very common in the real estate business for an individual to go bankrupt. trump university? trump vodka?
if you look at a second disclosure form, 145 profit-making ventures. if three or four go bankrupt... given the results are so narrow tonight, we don't know what's going to happen at the end of the night or whether or not donald trump will be president. and he could win. he would win in the house of representatives for sure. if he isn't president elect trump tomorrow morning,, isn't president elect trump tomorrow morning, given how close the have been, what do you think he is going td been, what do you think he is going to do? i have no idea what he personally will do but i do know that the political establishment in washington will have to heed these results either way and there is a new republican party in the making of new republican party in the making or a third-party, if they don't listen. it's the beginning of a big movement. we know that you have to go. thank you, i enjoyed it. get some reaction then i think
you are going to minnesota. you were smiling earlier but looking a bit grimmer now. i am clenching my teeth but the night is tight. it's tighter than democrats would have liked it to be. tal democrats would have liked it to be. but i do think it is a young night. no battle ground states have been called at this point. states like virginia, as betsy pointed out, the vote around the dc suburbs comes in late. a respected florida strategist that was a senior adviser on president obama's campaigns has been following closely and he is saying there is record turnout among democrats in the city but record turnout for trump supporters in the extra urban areas, keeping it tight. one reason it will be a late night is that the democratic war might be is that the democratic war might be in the west tonight, where the hispanic population is very hispanic population is very strong. -- democratic wall.
there was a record turnout in nevada and early returns in colorado are strong for the democrats. we might have to wait until the wee hours for a verdict. what is your reaction? betsy made a great point saying that donald trump have exceeded expectations. especially for me, and i said he wouldn't make it through the primaries... you look surprised. i am, and it is something for the republican party to learn. we have to listen to what people are saying u to listen to what people are saying on the ground. virginia, it's a shocker that it is so close. i think that the democrats thought they had it in the bag and the republicans will wait. if michigan is being for mrs clinton, that really limits the path. it does. let's go to minnesota and a democratic centre. thank you for waiting for us, senator. we have had so many results coming in. you are a clinton supporter.
you have always been a supporter of hillary clinton. how are you feeling at this stage? as was just pointed out, i think it is early. 1 have come from the state where al franken won by 312 votes, so we are used to click -- cliffhangers. you just mentioned michigan, with the detroit newspaper saying that they thought michigan would go to hillary clinton. we have got florida and virginia very tight. so far, we simply don't know enough, except that, when we won the senate race, we turned one senate seat in illinois, the first asian woman out of illinois, so we are excited about that. in nevada, you just pointed out that the western states and the strong hispanic vote, so it is looking good for us there in the senate race. what we have seen here is record turnout of both trump supporters and clinton supporters, no doubt about it.
donald trump asset throughout this campaign, particularly in the last few days, that he could reach states people didn't expect him to reach. he even mentioned minnesota. it's long been ej mentioned minnesota. it's long been a true blue democratic state. are you nervous about the possibility of donald trump doing better than one might have expected in minnesota tonight? that is what some reports are suggesting. interestingly, on the maps, minnesota didn't get much attention was that if you don't think we have voters, 1 attention was that if you don't think we have voters, i have three words for you, governor jesse ventura. we have always gone democratic at the end of many races, including al gore and john kerry. they were both in minnesota a few days before the polls closed because we can be closer. we have significant rural areas and so it wouldn't surprise me if it was
a bit closer if the country is closer, but closer if the country is closer, but i still feel good about the chances of hillary clinton in can of hillary clinton in minnesota. can i ask you about your colleagues in the senate? the democrats are net ales the senate? the democrats are net art one, i think. he democrats are net art one, i think. the democrats are net art one, i think. i think tammy duckworth takes you to one up in the senate. how are the democrats' chances looking at this stage in the evening of taking back the senate, which i imagine for you will be particularly important, were donald trump to take some battle ground states and win the white house? trump to take some battle ground states and win the white house?. think it is also important for the supreme court. we have had a vacancy for the longest time in modern history. we are feeling good about numbers in nevada, where a latina woman returning general of nevada, the numbers have looked good for a while
. the numbers have looked good for a while. so we hold that seat, harry reid's seat. we win illinois. to take back the senate, we need three more seats. if hillary clinton is to win the presidency, four more. llary clinton is to win the presidency, four more. if hillary clinton is to win the presidency, four more. we need three seats, and they could either be in a combination of wisconsin and pennsylvania, new hampshire, missouri or north carolina. those are the five seats that are most in play. we just don't know yet. too close to call. we will be watching. thank you, senator. too close to call is the phrase of the night. ohio, one of the states that tule night. ohio, one of the states that mr trump must win. ne of the states that mr trump must win. ohio, one of the states that mr trump must win. 50% of the precincts are in and he is ten points ahead. a bit too early to project, but it is clearly trending donald trump's way. we have the first picture of donald trump of the night since
the polls closed. his campaign manager posted it on her social media site. there they are, looking very happy, thumbs up. maybe they haven't heard that michigan is being projected by the local newspapers for hillary clinton, but that isn't official. we will go over td that isn't official. we will go over to trump headquarters and laura trevelyan. well, i can tell you that the mood has changed it completely. l, i can tell you that the mood has changed it completely. e the mood has changed it completely. it was a bit funeral like when the night began. 1 it was a bit funeral like when the night began. i am joined by a representative of the trump campaign. how are you feeling? very confident. there were some nervous nellie is in the beginning, as there always but later voting we saw a surge for trump. in florida, we saw an area searching for trump. i think florida will be called very simple trump. ohio, michigan, north carolina he is
doing well. he was pretty much mocked for going to michigan and minnesota, where public polls was showing a solid clinton lead. do you feel you are burning a clinton firewall? i think we are scaling the wall and i think hopefully we will burn that will and we will hopefully build a wall. but we will hopefully build a wall. but i think that tonight is going to be ej i think that tonight is going to be a success. i think it comes down to three issues, immigration, the economy and national security. national security and immigration are definitely tied together in this country as an issue, but i think those are the three issues. unfortunately for americans, the liberal media has focused too much u liberal media has focused too much on hot mike tapes from 11 years ago and things that are not important to americans. we are also seeing in florida and absolutely record turnout, record hispanic turnout, but a record turnout in what they
call the extra urban counties by trump supporters. that's right, and 99 trump supporters. that's right, and by the way i don't think you should cep by the way i don't think you should say that the surge in latino voters is all for hillary. 1 think a lot of aikido and african american voters are coming over to trump. -- a lot of latino and african american voters. he is putting across the message that he is a successful businessman, an outsider, and he will take on the political establishment and the media. does hillary clinton have a western firewall that can stop you? i don't think so. i think she has western states that we expect. i don't think she can overcome the east coast and the mid-atlantic that we are seeing trump winning. so the mood completely transformed here trump headquarters from early on tonight. speaking to trump supporters then, tried but the best face on it, they believed the polls, and now they really feel that their man
has a at the white house. they are not happy in the financial markets. dow futures, which predicts how the mainboard will open in 11 hours, they are down 500 points. if tonight continues the way it has begun, the financial markets across the world could be in for a hammering when the day opens because of the prospect of mr trump in the white house. financial markets do not always get things right. this is ej not always get things right. this is a two horse race in the united states. but gary johnson, the libertarian candidate, who has also been running along with a green candidate, he has got about a million votes so far, not barred for ej million votes so far, not barred for a third-party candidate who did not get much publicity. -- not
bad. maybe a small indicator of some unhappiness in part of the population with the main choice they were faced with. over a million moh were faced with. over a million votes for the libertarian candidate, once governor of new mexico. emily. i don't want you to start thinking the race is over. u to start thinking the race is over. it isn't. i can show you a comparison of places where clinton has taken the lead. pennsylvania and colorado going her way. only 29% in pennsylvania but she has a good solid lead of nearly 20%. in colorado she also takes the lead on this increasingly hispanic demographic. 44%, the precincts. this is another one. when i put this up five minutes ago, clinton had the lead in wisconsin. they thought it was safe blue.
but it forms part of the great lakes area, the rust belt. if trump is looking positive in places like ojai our and michigan, which may not be easy, he may start moving into areas like wisconsin. again, just 23% share of the vote. at the beginning of the night we asked, what kind of pathway could trump card out for himself to get to the white house? i want to show you the kind of pathway hillary clinton has. everything you see in red has been won by donald trump. everything been won by donald trump. everything in blue has been won by hillary clinton. i am now going to add in the polls. the campaign polls going into the polls. the campaign polls going nckus the polls. the campaign polls going into the election, how people imagine the other states would colour up. anni thing you see in grey is a battle ground state, worried we have been focusing our attention.
i go to my calculator and press the blue pen. we're going to start looking at what sort of things she has to win. she is insured by 70, which is not that much. but we have seen these sorts of places now leaning towards trump. let's i assume if michigan is safely blue, she takes that, and she is now short by 54. what are we left with? colorado, we saw heard in the lead. she is still soared by 45. when you go back to the other races, donald trump had the lead in north carolina and virginia. she had the lead in pennsylvania. we will give her that. but she is still short by 25. she could probably do it very easily with any of these states with any combination. but she has two actually win some of those that are actually win some of those that are in play at the let's imagine
them. nevada, maybe we will give her that. that is only six. arizona is quite unlikely, given that it was won by mitt romney last time out. she is short by eight. at this point, he is actually in the lead with the rest of the states. i am struggling to choose which one she is most likely to take of those, possibly virginia. virginia could come him with a laced -- late democrat surge. as things stand, donald trump is still ahead in quite few of those states. it feels like it has got a little trickier. virginia, he is only 13,500 votes ahead. he is now at least officially ej ahead. he is now at least officially a little bit behind. t least officially a little bit behind. she is ahead by ej a little bit behind. she is ahead by a
little bit. when you drill into the county results and the precincts, is it still your view that mrs clinton will win virginia? she is very likely to win virginia. most of the votes that our out are richmond, the heavily african-american areas, where be turnout is not as great as it should be, but mostly in the suburbs. she will not win by as much as we thought. in michigan, even though the detroit free press has called if mrs clinton, nobody else has. it is close. we did have a tremendous surge in hispanic-american votes. there is a big drop off in african-american votes. bigger than people anticipated. a stronger vote for trump in suburban areas. te for trump in suburban areas. a stronger vote for trump in suburban areas. that includes in michigan, 1 for trump in suburban areas. that includes in michigan, i am hearing, from women. more than one might have expected. women voting for mr trump expected. women voting for mr trump in larger numbers than we thought. p in larger numbers than we thought. states that should have been
more easily won are closer. that suggests we are in for a longer night. let's just see this picture. there is the trump family watching the results as they come in. coming up in a moment. it is most likely have seen a surprise. i hope they are enjoying the bbc coverage! ope they are enjoying the bbc coverage! i hope they are enjoying the bbc coverage! riveted, as usual. abc has been reporting that in florida women have broken for hillary clinton, but only by about 51%. that is very close. those numbers may not hold for the rest of the evening. then, 1 numbers may not hold for the rest of the evening. then, i want to get your reaction of where we are at this stage, because it is not what you expect it to be? no, it is tighter than expected. it is tighter than the polls
predicted. the upper midwest, there is still a big question. if clinton can win virginia, colorado and nevada, and hold pennsylvania, she is on track td hold pennsylvania, she is on track to win tonight. how is that looking as a prospect due it looks like vergini is still very winnable. the early vote in nevada was strong for democrats. -- virginia. colorado looks like it is going her way. states like michigan and wisconsin at the big question marks. the path clinton will be narrower if trump wins there. she can afford to lose a state like florida, that donald trump can't. she can afford to lose ej trump can't. she can afford to lose a state like florida, but she cannot afford to lose it if she is going to lose someone like
michigan, potentially other places. virginia bull potentially other places. virginia still very close. pennsylvania, we are not getting a sense of. ylvania, we are not getting a sense of. pennsylvania, we are not getting a sense of. let's not forget north carolina. it is quite possible that tonight we may not know. all of these states can break hillary clinton's way, yet they can also go donald trump. team clinton must be bit that -- beside themselves. they never saw a close election night. they figured they would pull ahead. nobody saw virginia. people talk about michigan, but virginia is the shocker. norm, florida, 94% of precincts in. he is still one percentage point ahead. can she ball percentage point ahead. can she still do virginia, can she still do florida? florida is getting harder. the last time we had a number of moh the last time we had a number of votes counted the next day and they
went for barack obama. we don't know how money votes are out in southern florida. down in fort lauderdale and as you move closer to miami. . down in fort lauderdale and as you move closer to miami. if you keep holding that lead, as you move through more precincts, you are seeing the possibility slip away. you're not so sure? no. i am more sure about virginia than florida. the padron in virginia is that the moh the padron in virginia is that the votes come in late. let's go to our ege votes come in late. let's go to our asia business correspondent in singapore. how are the markets reacting? it has been a nerve wracking day on asian markets. initially they started positive, in positive territory. but over the past hour, as these results have belact past hour, as these
results have started trickling in, indicating an early lead, it appears, for mr trump, markets in asia are broadly gone negative. sentiment has soured. most major asian markets down by between 1% and 2%. we have seen a lot of money being piled into safe haven stocks, as well as safe haven currencies. for example, the japanese yen is rising against the us dollar. that us proxy, the currency seen as the big proxy for us election sentiment, the mexican peso has fallen by almost 8% in asia. there is a real sense of nervousness and anxiety, something they were not feeling necessarily at the beginning of the day. thanking you. the mexican peso taking a hit in far east and markets at the prospect of mr trump been the next us president. we still do not know. we are about to get
a whole range of other states closing. and perhaps some projections. i suspect not many. it is ten o'clock on the east coast of the united states. emily. let me show you the ones we are expecting. this is the list of them. we should hear montana called very quickly. we are expecting that td very quickly. we are expecting that to be called for donald trump. ng that to be called for donald trump. we are expecting that to be called for donald trump. here it is. montana projected, giving him another three volts. . montana projected, giving him another three volts. -- volts. this is a particularly interesting one. e is a particularly interesting one. it is too early to project. there are three candidates in this race. ee candidates in this race. there are three candidates in this race. evan mcmullin, standing as another republican, as a mormon, somebody who thinks donald trump has not rang ej who thinks donald trump has not rang a good, virtuous campaign. he is standing against him. the polls had on about
25% of the vote. we will be watching that closely. on the kind of projections that we are getting from some of the other races, it might be that donald trump is having an easier night in utah. nevada is one of the key races. too early to project. neither side has taken it easily so far. we are at the very beginning of the night for these states. it is not until 11 o'clock that you get this slew of safe democratic seats on the pacific coast, on the west coast. these are the ones we're looking at right now. lg the ones we're looking at right now. as soon as we can update you with any data, we will do so. there is quite a any data, we will do so. there is cm any data, we will do so. there is quite a lot of chatter round on the tv networks and on social media, bearing out what norm was saying, that mrs clinton looks like she is moving into the lead in virginia and could indeed clinch it.
that is not confirmed. but even if she does, katty, it was never meant to be this difficult? no. i think what we are seeing, we started this programme talking about the changing nature of america and demographic groups. we talked a lot about hispanics because they had voted in large numbers before this election. maybe the group we will end up talking about is working class white men. and it seems that working class white voters, probably men and women, are almost acting like a minority group and voting as a block for donald trump. that is why we are seeing this high turnout in some of these rural, extra urban areas. it is the area beyond the suburbs. those areas seem to have been turning out for donald trump. the kind of people i have spoken to during this campaign, people who feel the established political system has failed them, who are also
aware that america's demographics are changing. i spoke td demographics are changing. i spoke to one shock jock, a conservative els to one shock jock, a conservative talk radio host in southern virginia, and he had a great phrase. he said what witnessing is the worse dedication of the american working class mail. he was talking about a group of men looking at the world which was not the world that their father had, not the world their grandfather had, and not the world they expected to have. they are men having to work two jobs, whose wives are having to work, and who are seeing their country changing around them. i think what we are seeing in these results tonight are those voters saying, look, we have to try and get ej saying, look, we have to try and get a better deal, and we believe donald trump when he says he's going to give us a better deal, because the people we have
had in politics so els people we have had in politics so far have failed us. paul ryan is the speaker of the house of representatives. he is republican. the house is staying republican. whether he stays speaker, we will find out. he hasn't been best mates with donald trump. e hasn't been best mates with donald trump. this is what he had to say if you minutes ago in wisconsin. you know, i way out kicked my courage, in my better half, jana. -- 1 kicked my courage, in my better half, jana. -- i outkicked mike overreach. my daughter, liza, our boys, charlie and sam. my sister, janet. my brother-in-law, bill. my nephew, matt. my brother, tobin, and sister-in-law, oakley. we have a number of officials
here. we have members of the state assembly and state senate. congratulations on your races. we look forward to hearing from you tonight. well-deserved races, all of you. congratulations. you've heard me say this before. i am a fifth generation native of this town. i have lived here for almost my entire life. 1 have known most of you for years, if not decades. we have grew up together and we share this community together. it's a great place in a wonderful state in the best country [efefol wonderful state in the best country god ever created. applause and i am so eager to get back to work for you, to get on with fixing our country's problems. we have so much potential in this country, so much, and if we can just ef la country, so much, and if we can just tap it, that's what's ahead of us.
by some accounts, i have just been watching the polls, this could be a really good night for america, a really good night for us. crossed. applause i am eager to watch. o watch. applause i am eager to watch. there are a lot of races i want to watch. ron johnson, all of the others. there are races we want to watch. like you, i am eager to watch the rest of the evening and enjoy this evening with you, so thank you by this evening with you, so thank you so much for coming out. god bless you all. paul ryan said it had been ej you all. paul ryan said it had been a good night for republicans. had been a good night for republicans. paul ryan said it had been a good night for republicans. he has not been donald trump's biggest fan. not been donald trump's biggest fan. i would suggest, given the way the night is going, he is quite subdued. deca night is going, he is quite subdued. from the beginning, he has had an incredibly tricky relationship with donald trump and, if donald trump is elected president, he will carry on having a difficult relationship. either way, 1 having a difficult relationship. either way, i suspect paul ryan's
days as speaker of the house, a job he didn't really want anyway, are numbered. i can't see him working very closely... donald trump is not somebody who forgets when people have not supported him, and paul ryan is not supported him in the way that donald trump would want in order to keep him in the house of representatives in that powerful a position. we have talked a lot about how difficult it would be for mrs clinton facing a republican congress, but actually it could be rather difficult for donald trump. if he becomes president, 1 would suggest he would do so despite the republican congressional leadership. relations will not be that great. they would be great, and also the priorities that need to be in place. priorities that need to be in place. -- they will not be great. the republicans are very much for free trade. donald trump is offering up an awful lot of spending and not a lot of cuts. the house will insist
on entitlement reforms, which he says he will not consider. what do you think about the relations between a possible trump presidency and even a republican-controlled congress? donald trump does not agree with speaker ryan on a lot. he campaigned against entitlement reform. he has campaigned against traditional republican foreign policy. in some ways, there might be ej policy. in some ways, there might be a possibility that speaker ryan could get more done with president clinton in office and president trump. except that the republicans would never let him get anything done. we have got some breaking news. new mexico, an interesting one td news. new mexico, an interesting one to watch, because the independent candidate, gary johnson, he is a libertarian. it has been projected for hillary clinton, 52%. that gives her another
five electoral college votes. she will be pleased with that. we have also had missouri. that has been projected for donald trump. no big surprise, that he will be very pleased, on 62%. se, that he will be very pleased, on 62%. but with only 13% of the precinct in, that could alter, but it is emphatic enough for them to be able to call it quite early. it gives him another ten electoral college votes. let's have a look at the state of the race in a couple of other places. we have been watching virginia so closely, and we saw an hour or so ago how trump was taking the lead. it seems now that hillary clinton is pushing ahead. it comes down to a decimal place, but as things stand she is just edging it. they have nearly all of the precinct in. obama won the state by 3%. it is looking much tighter and there is not much counting to do. even if they win that, 1 counting to do. even if they win that, i think they will get a bit
of ej that, i think they will get a bit of a chill about other races that we are looking at, and i would take you td are looking at, and i would take you to some of those now. this is where the clinton campaign should start to be a bit nervous, i would have thought. florida, with 99% of the precinct in, and he seems to have a 2% lead. that is exceptionally good news for donald trump. if donald trump manages to take florida tonight, a lot more pathways open up tonight, a lot more pathways open up in that mathematical process that he needs to get to the white 4%. in north carolina, where there was so much discussion, and it became, i would say, the battle ground of the last week or so of the campaign, he has opened up a lead of 3%. indeed. virginia, there are many states which
mr trump has to win, and virginia isn't one of them. he didn't expect to win it and it now looks like he isn't going to, but it isn't a huge setback. florida is another matter. florida, he pretty much has to win to stay in the race and, even then, it might not be enough, but the latest figures, 99% of precincts, and he is still ahead. not by much, but he is ahead. as winston churchill once said, one vote is enough, and it looks like he may have more than that. at the moment, we can't project florida, but there is no question that florida is trending towards donald trump, with 99% of the precincts in. that will keep this race very much alive. so what are they saying and thinking ? so what are they saying and thinking? what is the mood at the
clinton headquarters? let's go to can get us. well, this was not the evening that people here at the jacob k javits convention centre in new york were expecting. they were expecting, not an easy win but certainly a happier night. the mood here is very subdued. there have been some chairs about states that are safe democratic states. -- some cheering. some networks are projecting that virginia will be won by mrs clinton, but this was not the night they were expecting. the mood is subdued. we are not getting much reaction from clinton campaign aides. they were sounding very confident yesterday. still sounding confident this evening but, as i say, the whistles we are seeing tonight were not the ones they were expecting. to discuss this further, expecting. to discuss this further, i have the international president of
the service employees international union. this is the largest union in the united states. thank you for joining us on the bbc. this is not exactly how it was supposed to go, is it? i think we thought this was going to be tight. it has been a very nasty campaign. working families all across this country are very anxious to elect a president that will help raise wages and create good jobs, and that is why i am confident that, when all is said and done...? you are still confident? very confident that hillary clinton will be the next resident. where do you get that from? in philadelphia, more people turned out to vote than in the history of the city. in north miami, we heard that every family had voted early. we saw record numbers of latino families registering and turning out to vote. in city after city, when these votes end up being counted in
these states, 1 counted in these states, i think that hillary will be the next president. but it looks like being a narrow win, which isn't the best outcome for her, even if it is better than a loss. how is it possible that somebody with her experience, background and history is in such a narrow, tight race with donald trump, who has offended so many people, but has also appealed to a lot of voters, a rural area middle-class white voters? where has she gone wrong? i don't think she has gone wrong. i think that politics are broken in this country. . i think that politics are broken in this country. the economy isn't working for the majority of the nation. our efforts majority of the nation. our efforts in the grassroots have been to connect with voters and help them understand that, if they turn out and vote, they can elect champions up and down the ballot that are actually going to improve our lives, create good jobs,
raise wages, make sure we passed immigration reform and deal with criminal justice reform. those are the issues people wanted these candidates to talk about and they are anxious to get on with an agenda. but did you expect that the get out the vote operation would deliver a better result at this point in the night for her in places like florida, where she is struggling to keep up with donald trump and she may lose the state? when you look at history of florida when you look at history of florida in presidential elections, it has always a tipping state and a state where every vote that is why we are so proud that 200,000 more people registered to vote in that state, and i think it is heading in our direction. when the corridor where puerto ricans have registered where puerto ricans have registered in record numbers, when they come in, i think in record numbers, when they come in, 1 think we will in record numbers, when they come in, i think we will see a decisive the president of the largest union in the united states, still sounding
confident and hoping for some of those big urban centres to deliver for hillary clinton but, as we have been saying, this is not exactly how the clinton campaign was expecting tonight would unfold. but still a few hours to go. indeed, there is. thank you for that. your quest is still confident of a clinton victory, but some of the pictures we were showing at clinton hq as we were talking, well, a picture tells a thousand words, and if so those words are not good for mrs clinton. people looked quite miserable. we have got over 50% of the precinets in georgia and miserable. we have got over 50% of the precincts in georgia and mr trump 17 points ahead. georgia, you would expect it to go republican, but there was a lot of chatter in the media that georgia could be in play. in that result so far, it is only in play for donald trump. in ohio, he is still way ahead, so i have to say that we are
now projecting that the trend in ohio and georgia is still now to donald trump. he had to take them to win the race and he is still very much in the race tonight. we are pretty close to 100% in florida. mr trump is still a bit ahead. but we are not able to project it. why? there are still votes that would be counted until tomorrow. no! there are some folks out in southern florida but it isn't looking good for mrs clinton. isn't looking good for mrs clinton. -- some folks out. the lead has not shrunk enough to say that it is going to change. in the senate, we have richard burr, the republican senate -- senator for north carolina, who has now been called the winner by msnbc and some others. the winner by msnbc and some others. i should note that fox news called virginia for clinton. but what we are seeing, andrew, is in some ways ej are seeing, andrew, is in some ways
a nationwide phenomenon, which is in part, you know, what a lot of people had thought, but early research didn't suggest would be the case, that there was something they came to what we used to call the bradley effect, where we had an popular mayor of los angeles who ran for governor and all of the polls said he would win and he lost, and the idea was that people didn't want to cep idea was that people didn't want to say to the pollsters that they were not going to vote for an african-american. in this case, we have a reverse effect, people who didn't want to say to pollsters that they would vote for donald trump and who are now doing it. this will shake the polling industry but not as much as it will shake the country. but we have had shy tories, bashful brexiteers, and now it looks like we have got timid trumpettes. we also saw a
skew in the polling sample. we also saw a skew in the polling eelut+ gall we also saw a skew in the polling sample. i think we are seeing a very high turnout that people didn't expect, especially from working-class white folks who might stay at home sometimes. i think the turnout model was probably more off than anything else. to give the trump camp their view, they have said the polling was skewed against them and there were people who would not tell the pollsters they were going to vote for donald trump and would turn out and do so. if this padron continues through the night, there will be a lot of political strategists, people like ben and susan, who will sit back and think, is that get out the vote machine, is the infrastructure of a campaign actually necessary if you have a candidate like donald trump, who manages to get a lot of airtime? it will shake the political industry. it is very hard to
predict what the likely electorate will look like. but what is interesting is that -- trump through the science of politics out of the window in this election. he ran on a message of prior and part of that is coming home. there will be a re-evaluation. i want to get more on florida in a moment. if this has so far not been ej moment. if this has so far not been a great night for mrs clinton, it has not been a great night for senate democrats either? no. they were up one area with the illinois vote. now they have lost the north carolina vote seat to richard burke, ej carolina vote seat to richard burke, a republican, that is looking tougher. -- richard burr. that was an interesting race. the one issue we have not talked about in north carolina, and it may be part of the reason why it was so close,
i talked earlier about how america is changing democratically and economically. it is also changing in social cultural ways. one of those ways has been the discussion during the campaign of lg bt rights. america moved with lightning speed towards gay marriage. when i was in carolina a week ago, people were telling me the whole discussion of gay and lesbian and transgender rights has made a lot of social conservatives uncomfortable. north carolina became ground zero of that debate. we may be seeing some of the backlash in some of these rural conservative communities against social change that makes some people social change that makes some people in america think this is not the country their parents and grandparents it is amazing because the democrats were using that as an issue months ago to get early voting, to kick out the governor, the current
governor. originally they thought they would have a win because of the issue and now it is looking exactly the opposite. richard burr winning in north carolina is a major setback for democratic hopes of the senate. all eyes on florida. we have the exit poll. jeremy vine has the details. yes, it may be a close of 2000, this, where florida was caught for ages in limbo because there was no way of working out whether it had gone to george bush or al gore. 99% of the votes have been counted. the reason for the delay is that even with 99% counted, they still can't tell who the winner is. yes, it really is going to be between less than 1% margin between those two. maybe we are about to
show how it is that donald trump has sprung this florida surprise, if that is what it is. florida was not convinced by bill clinton when he was first elected in 1992, which harks back to the old and more republican character of the state. it stayed republican despite clinton's victory. it then went with clinton in 1996. then you got the two george bush elections. it is a brilliant weather vane state for election victors. it went for barack obama both times in 2008 and 2012. (tm obama both times in 2008 and 2012. you can basically see what the votes have done. 95% of the votes in miami have been counted. you have got these powerful rural areas which seem to be turning out. andrew has some news. trump on a 50 port -- 54% share of the
vote. he has, on this projection, taken one of those key battle ground states, landing him 18 electoral college votes. this is where he has campaigned tirelessly. where he has campaigned tirelessly. i have seen him on the stump. those eles i have seen him on the stump. those rallies have been energised by the message she has been taking, many voters upset by the state of the economy in this rust belt state. lowa for donald trump. they are confident to call it for donald trump at this point. i want to remind you of the kind of races we are watching. of these nine, these are all the key battle ground states. let's start with florida. he is in the lead in all of these. it is too early to predict. we are not going to make any calls but as things stand on 99% share of the vote in florida, he has got 49% to
47% lead. that is florida. you have seen ohio. protected for trump. -- projected. north carolina too early to project. we will not be calling this. he has a lead. 50% share of the vote. let's carry on through. michigan. we heard the detroit papers saying it was clinton's. as things stand, he is in the lead by 5%. only 29% counted. these are looking positive. this is a good night for donald trump in terms of the state of the races. he has a 3% lead in north hampshire. i think we have got one more. wisconsin, which they never really thought, the democrats never really thought was democrats never really thought was in play until this when he belact in play until this week. when he started going to places like wisconsin, minnesota, michigan,
people were laughing. they thought he didn't have a plan. they said he didn't have a game plan. he was just going anywhere. maybe he was. but these places are now putting him in the lead as the votes come in. the lead as the votes come in. i just want to go to the trump headquarters. mr trump has not just won lowa. he has won it big-time. in modern times, the way all lowa goes has been the way the country has gone. -- ohio. let's join laura trevelyan. let's get some reaction. a stunning victory. e a stunning victory. it is indeed, andrew. you can hear the crowds cheering. the crowds cheering. you can hear the crowds cheering. joining me to els the crowds cheering. joining me to talk about this victory is gerry folwell, evangelical leader, president of liberty university of virginia. can i ask you for your reaction?
i think it is huge for the trump campaign. it is very encouraging to see the numbers. i am very optimistic about the results tonight. and florida looking extremely close with a slight trump league two it looks like he is holding onto it in florida. that is absolutely essential. it will go right down to the wire. it is definitely a nailbiter. he is outperforming the polls. what do you attribute that to? there are a lot of people who never voted before and who have supported him but were never asked by any pollster who they were supporting. they were never on the radar. that is just my view. you have taken some heat for supporting him. many christians have said he is not necessarily the most moral of people, having been married three times, having admitted to groping women. do you think the people supporting him care? do you think the people supporting him care ? do you think the people supporting him care?
i don't think he admitted to groping women. 1 think he said that women would let famous people do that. either way it is not especially christian. that is the thing. evangelicals believe all people are sinners, we have all gone wrong, we'll need forgiveness. the donald trump i know has a big heart, he loves people, he loves this country. 1 he loves people, he loves this country. i just don't see that. evangelicals, the vast majority, were supporting trump well before the evangelical leadership was. the divide has only been in the leader ship. -- leadership. not the rank and file. ot the rank and file. not the rank and file. that is the view from a very prominent evangelical leader. nt evangelical leader. that is the view from a very prominent evangelical leader. and here at trump headquarters, the mood is buoyant. thank you, laura. some of the other networks are
calling colorado for hillary clinton. but i think that was expected. i don't think that will cheer them up too much, particularly given the scale of mr trump's victory in ohayon macro. esther obama won ohio by three percentage points. mr trump has won it by 12. a 15 point turnaround. that is an enormous turnaround. it speaks a lot to the state of the economy and people's philosophy and where mr trump said he would do the most for america. he has been pro-trade. he has been against trade body has talked about bringing steel back, manufacturing jobs. that has been an important issue in states like ohayon macro and pennsylvania. easier to say than do. much easier. if mr trump wins and we are looking at a trump presidency,
the question will be, what happens under his presidency in an error of globalisation -- era? it is just not going to happen. it was interesting going to ohio and words like nafta and the world trade agreement organisation are dirty words. the other reality of the american economy is that this is a story as much of technology as it is of trade. a lot of people who have lost their jobs in the steel industry have lost their jobs because a robot of have lost their jobs because a robot or a computer chip has taken their jobs. that will not change. how america deals with that, whether it is a president trump or president [ellfy) c is a president trump or president clinton, how america deals with that shift is interesting. norm, of the battle ground states, ohio was not the one that the clinton had the most hope of taking.
but still, the size of donald trump's win his stunning? they did not expect they would win there. they thought it would be close. we started the evening looking at all the different paths to 270 that the candidates had. trump only had a few. now we are going to clinton having only a few. fundamentally, she has to win the states that were in the bag for her, that remain. michigan looks dicey. minnesota looks dicey. there was an exit poll that showed a close. colorado, we have. nevada, new hampshire, which is not looking very good right now either. and if she loses one or two of those, including the small ones, that is it. beyond that, if she pulls it out macro, it will be extremely close. and we know that donald trump will contest it. we know that we will have
a long and bitter and difficult period ahead. we also know now almost certainly that the republicans will contain -- retain control of the senate. 1 republicans will contain -- retain control of the senate. i doubt very much under those circumstances, given the way the country is going, that jason kander, the democrat, will pull that one out. we may have unified republican government. then it will be interesting. you have a split in the agenda between the congressional republicans and donald trump. you also have a republican party that has built itself around repealing and replacing obamacare, but does not have a plan to replace. they will have to scramble. we are going to have a lot of difficulty in this country for months. the other critical thing about this is if donald trump fought to win the white house tonight, and the republicans were to hold on to be senate and house of representatives, a huge amount more of his agenda can get done. and critically, there is a vacancy on the
supreme court that can fill. and potentially another one as well. many people have felt that is the most important issue with regards to that -- this election. who was going to be on the supreme court and what will be future of personal rights and civil liberties be in the united states? 2%. this was closer and more tightly fought and 1 this was closer and more tightly fought and i think she or her campaign team were expecting, but she has clinched it. as we were talking about, some of the early lead for donald trump came from the republican, more rural precincts and, in the last ten, 15%, she has made up the distance. it's pretty much came down to the last few counts. but she has won it, she has taken virginia, projected
for her on 48. 2% share. that is less than 2%, so she has won it by a smaller margin than obama did. it's tightened. yes, and this is somewhere we talked about the different demographic, north virginia becoming richer, the rural parts becoming just a little bit less populated, and yet, and yet she has not found this race in virginia any easier to win than her predecessor four years ago, although the clinton campaign right now will be incredibly relieved just to have that number of electoral college moh that number of electoral college votes safely in. what cromwell, it keeps the race open. it's a night of ups and downs, more downs for mrs clinton, but the race isn't over yet. let's take you out in times square and show you what is happening. the crowds are gathering happening. the crowds are gathering in bigger numbers. wds are gathering in bigger numbers. the crowds are gathering in bigger numbers.
abc news across the way putting up the results there, as you can see. an exciting time here in the heart of manhattan, as this results programme just begins to gather pace. let's get some news headlines with clive myrie. polls have closed in the last of the key swing states that will determine who becomes the next president of the united states. so far, donald trump appears to be performing better than opinion polls had predicted. in the last few minutes, it's been announced that mr trump is projected td announced that mr trump is projected to win ohio. donald trump is in his campaign headquarters in new york, waiting to see if he has a path to become president of the usa. the battle was always going to be in florida. voters had re-elected marco rubio, who ran for president against donald trump. florida is an extraordinary place, the collection of all things which made
us the greatest nation on earth, people who have lived here for decades, the descendants of slaves, the children of immigrants. florida is america and it is an honour to be able to represent this extraordinary state. decision day 2016. the campaign might have been ugly but voters turned out in their millions. around 15% told pollsters it was their first time. with dusk falling across the east coast, the lines were still long. in colorado you could even stay in the car and vote. a high turnout could be a good sign for the woman who wishes to be the first female president. hillary clinton voted close to her home in new york, which she has won, surrounded by close supporters. it's the most humbling feeling, because i know how much responsibility goes with this. so many people are counting on the outcome of this election, what it means for our country, and i will do the very best i can if i'm fortunate enough to win today. a few miles away, her rival also cast his ballot.
as the votes were counted, there were signs of how bitter and divisive the campaign has become. at least one couple are no longer talking to each other. for the candidates, a tense evening ahead as counting gets under way and they can only watch and wait. iraqi forces say they've retaken the first neighbourhood close to the centre of the city of mosul, as they continue to battle so-called islamic state. our middle east correspondent, quentin sommerville, is one of the first broadcasters to reach the newly recaptured saddam district, on the north-eastern side of mosul. with heavy armour and caution, mosul city was reached tonight. iraqi special forces pushed forward in the dark and under fire. we've just moved five kilometres from
the east right inside mosul city centre. we're about three kilometres from the nineveh ruins, which really is the heart of this city. as you can hear, this is still a very active area. it's far more dangerous than where we were before. islamic state were here this morning. prince harry has issued a strongly worded statement, criticising the media for its treatment of his girlfriend, the american actress meghan markle. in the statement, he confirmed the couple have been in a relationship for two months. but he says it isn't right that she's been subject to what he called a "wave of abuse and harassment" - some of it with racial undertones. here's nicholas witchell. it is a very clear message to the british press - back off. the story isn't going to go away, and i do think that issuing such statements just encourages those that knew nothing about it to find out about it.
a giant sinkhole has swallowed a five-lane street in the centre of one of japan's biggest cities. the collapse happened in the middle of the night in fukuoka city on the southern island of kyushu. it began with two smaller holes that grew steadily until they formed one huge depression around 30 metres wide. that's it. now back to andrew and katty. it's 20 minutes to 11 in times square, new york time, an election results night 2016. let's give you an update on the state of the race on the bbc billboard.
our drone camera picks it up over times square. 122 electoral college votes for mrs clinton, 168 for donald trump. the winning line is 270, and it is still wide open for either of them to become the next president of the united states. just before we went to the news, well, 1 the united states. just before we went to the news, well, i think before we even do that, we are going td before we even do that, we are going to go back to jeremy in a minute, but before we do, colorado. it has just been projected for hillary clinton, giving her 49% to donald trump's 44%. it has mostly been republican since the war, but obama won it twice. it has the highest portion of college graduates in the us, but it has come good for hillary clinton. colorado joins the blue tally. nine electoral college votes. obama won here by 5%. it looks like she has done
pretty much the same. this is how the map looks, colouring up in that part of the south-west, colorado, new mexico, slightly more of a changing hispanic demographic right to helping the democrats. the rest of the central part of the country all colouring up for donald trump. they need 270 to win. that's the magic number of electoral college votes. clinton is short by 139. donald trump is short by 102. he is in the lead at this point, but [eu] he is in the lead at this point, but i am looking at my watch and, in 15 minutes, we will get these states closing, which should and on at [cebe closing, which should and on at least 70 also electoral college votes, pushing her tally up. but there are a lot of undecided races. (tm there are a lot of undecided races. you see virginia, very tight for mrs clinton. colorado, she is pretty much on track with what was expected. there is no consistency
coming out. no, that is what is interesting. colorado, she is doing well presumably from those growing urban areas like denver and bolder. we have a growing hispanic population in colorado as well, an affluent suburban and urban population, the same as virginia. so what is the difference between what is happening in virginia? it's possible that the difference is in the south-west corner of virginia, the bit which sticks out, which is working-class manufacturing country producing coal. that is one of the biggest policy differences between hillary clinton and donald trump, the issue of fossil fuels. he says, oll the issue of fossil fuels. he says, full steam ahead with coal, oil and gas exploration. she wants to make american houses dependent on renewable fuels. anti military bases, colorado has a military base, two, so it's puzzling to me how this is shaping
out, and the only thing we can think is that we have had an uptake in performance in both rural and ex-urban areas where people really feel donald trump is the only one who is going to manage to make their world stop getting worse. here is the bottom line. trump bet on using racial resentment and economic populism to get white working class americans, who make up 40% or more of the electorate, and it turns out they voted like a block, like a minority group, almost. that, along with the fact that politics are so tribal, driven by the negative partisanship you mention, when the republicans otherwise appalled by trump are still going along with him, is what is making the difference. none of us saw that coming in the same way, not even the trump people. here is where i disagree. it isn't just racial resentment
but economic populism that is more important. you have had promise after promise, year after year, that we are going to get the country turned round, more job creation, economic growth, and we haven't seen that, and that is what haven't seen that, and that is what i think the pollsters haven't been able to 9%. but there are still more people out of the workforce and millions more on welfare. people are looking at this and saying, 1 looking at this and saying, i don't want these that you shouldn't any more, i want a change. there are also a large number of people underemployed. 1 also a large number of people underemployed. i have also a large number of people underemployed. 1 have said it since day one, and beginning to see it come to fruition tonight, we saw a large block of white males voting as ej large block of white males voting as a minority group and actually will be a minority group in the united states very soon. we need to go back td states very soon. we need to go back to jeremy vine.
he was telling us about the florida exit poll. telling us about the florida exit poll. it is a key state and we need to hear from him. that result from ohio was sensational. i will come to ohio in a moment. we have got a chance to look at why people have voted the way they have. florida was reliably republican, it went republican in 92, and then it started to go with the candidate who won. whoever takes this state, a bellwether state, that suggests they may be set fair for the white house. there is probably only 1% in it. the narrative with florida was that, yes, trump would get is rural voters out, older white voters but, in the cities around miami, orlando, tampa, lots of minority voters and someone would come out for hillary clinton. it hasn't worked out quite that way, according to the exit poll. let me show you what i mean.
let's bring on particular areas in florida and have a look at how they have voted. we can firstly look at urban places, how they voted, and the answer is that, as expected, 55% went for clinton and 41% of voters went for trump. so far, pretty much as we expected. if we go way outside the urban areas, to the rural areas, this is rural voting, and overwhelmingly going for donald trump, 63%, 35 for hillary clinton. what is fascinating is the third one what is fascinating is the third one in this is in florida, and these are the how did they go? they were supposed to go for clinton. that was the narrative. they didn't, they went for donald trump by quite a margin. this idea that this is all him just supercharging rural voters and they all march into the polling stations, not so. he is getting closer to the cities with his support, at least
in florida. let me clear this down and we will take a look at ohio. ohio has now been called for trump. you can see really how important that is to him. the ebaduld how important that is to him. the last time it went republican, the winner in that state, george bush junior, became president. we will look at sex and race in ohio, white men in ohio, gender, i should say, td men in ohio, gender, i should say, to avoid confusion. actually, can we tracked back to white men? here we go. let's start with white men. this is how they voted in ohio. 30% democrat, 63% republican. isn't that remarkable, to see trump with that kind of lead, more than 30% of white men in ohio? the vast majority of voters in ohio. now we look at white women. this is fascinating.
again, the narrative was, oh, women will go for clinton, but in this election, white women in ohio in some states might not have done. trump won it among white women in ohio. so interesting figures for you to chew over. very interesting. it is the women figure. the women figure. let's go to florida. 's go to florida. let's go to florida. i would imagine that those people in southern florida, the democrats, which is a stronghold, they are feeling a bit nervous, aren't they? yes. i spoke to a senior aide for the clinton campaign a couple of ours go. she said that you need to wait for palm beach county before you can see what is going to happen. lg you can see what is going to happen. as we have seen in the results
that have come insofar, donald trump ball have come insofar, donald trump still has his lead. it is interesting that gary johnson has about two percentage points. one thing i was looking at in some of the early indications were that the white evangelical vote, a percentage of it has gone down overall, but about 85% or 81% of evangelicals have gone for donald trump. 1 about 85% or 81% of evangelicals have gone for donald trump. i am joined by two republicans. pastor robert warren and frank carrasco. it could be that the white evangelical vote in florida just outweighed the minority vote, which the democrats have been banking on? minority vote, which the democrats have been banking on?! minority vote, which the democrats have been banking on? i think the republicans have had to bank a lot u republicans have had to bank a lot on the platform of the republican party. not only mr trump, but the platform. the platform stands for many things that we feel are strong many things that we feel are strong
in the christian faith, such as in leadership, when it comes to the supreme court. i think when it came down to it, we had to make a decision on who we would vote for based upon what the word of god teaches us to stand in. that is what we have done. frank, you are a republican. can you tell us who you voted for? i voted for all the other republican candidates, except i voted for hillary clinton for president. donald trump is completely illegitimate as a candidate. he has no political experience. we don't know what his positions are or what he would accomplish in office. 1 positions are or what he would accomplish in office. i could not have, in good faith, foisted him [weel have, in good faith, foisted him upon the world. i have met some republicans in florida and across the country who have felt the same as you would couldn't bring themselves to vote for
a democrat. it seems that many of those might have done the same in florida and not contrary hillary clinton but stuck with the republican? i had a hard time. when i got to the candidates for president, 1 stopped and voted for the other candidates first before returning to the president. 1 had first before returning to the president. i had to vote hillary clinton. if donald trump wins this, clinton. if donald trump wins this, i couldn't know that i had any hand i couldn't know that i had any hand in i couldn't know that i had any hand in it. 1 couldn't rest at night. what do you think this tells us about florida and conservative values? a lot of it is a protest vote. we are upset at the rub -- the establishment. republicans who have (ge establishment. republicans who have let us down as well as democrats. have let us down as well as democrats. hillary clinton does represent a lot of the establishment. somewhat similar to what happened in the uk with brexit, a lot of this is a protest vote. thank you very much. do you think your man is going to do it?
i am sure hoping so. we will find out. it is interesting, two republicans with very different views. if donald trump does indeed win in the state of florida, it could be because people like the pastor and his congregation came out pastor and his congregation came out in great thank you. let's talk a little bit more about how women are voting in this election. claire shipman is a surrogate with the clip -- clinton campaign. she is in washington. this is not how i would imagine you expected the night to go? hull, not so far. when you talk to the clinton campaign now, they are still looking at the multiple paths to victory. i think they would have hoped to have had it locked up by now. you have travelled around the country talking td travelled around the country talking to women voters, trying to rally female support for hillary clinton. but actually when you are looking
at these numbers, these exit poll returns from a state like florida, it looks like she has not done that well with women? what is interesting when you look at the breakdown, and when you look at the breakdown, and i was listening to your analysis area about the white female vote in ohio, and i would be curious to see that broken down into college educated and not college what we have seen so far is that she has had a fairly commanding lead among college-educated voters, and even white college-educated voters, and certainly minority voters. but the white non-college-educated voters have been really much more trump supporters. i'm not sure what that breakdown looks like in ohio. there is no question that women have been her natural base. women will be the reason ultimately she wins. we are certainly hoping.
but i think it is also the case that it has been really a struggle for her at some points to ignite that base. there has been the likeability factor. she has been accused of not being inspirational. 1 has been accused of not being inspirational. i think we have seen as the campaign has gone on that there have been key moment 20 is really started to resonate boat with voter is my age, and with younger woman. the convention, for example, when people finally let the stereotype fall away and really understand what she has done in public life. 1 understand what she has done in public life. i think they are hoping, and we are all hoping, that women would be the reason she will win. but that does not seem to be the case tonight. even if you look not just at the electoral college vote, but at the popular vote, with 54% of the precinets in, donald trump but at the popular vote, with 54% of the precincts in, donald trump is ball the precincts in, donald trump is still ahead. 49% to 47%. in the popular vote as well.
i would imagine in your conversations tonight, this is just not what the clinton campaign wanted? no. they are looking at michigan and wisconsin and new hampshire, florida would be nice. minnesota, nevada, all key states that the campaign knows they need to win. but again, i think they are hoping, and you just heard your reporter, they are watching this as closely as you are. e watching this as closely as you are. it is not where they are expected to be right now at this moment. claire shipman, thank you. we are only about five minutes away from polls closing in the west coast, that huge avalanche of clinton's support you can expect from california through oregon, into washington. many people have thought that at this stage, as the west --
western support moved into mrs clinton's column, that would take over the 270 mark. in fact, the matter how well she does out there, it will not do that. it will not do it, will it? it will not. we began the night talking about how difficult a path it would be for donald trump to carve a path to the white house. now we are starting to ebs white house. now we are starting to eb white house. now we are starting to ask it from the other perspective. to ask it from the other perspective. clinton is on 131, still short by 139. even if the west coast came in for her, she would not be up to the mark. what is her path to the white house, given the kind of races he appears to be ahead in? this is the map so far. everything in blue is hers. everything in gray has not given us a result. we are going to add in the campaign polls. this is not voting, this is how the campaign polls
decreed on, or guest how the key states would settle. she has more blue. she is still short by 48. this is where it gets quite difficult. because we have already said that florida, where trump is ahead, may go for him. and we have said that north carolina, where he's currently ahead, may go for him. and we have said that arizona, where he is also looking to be ahead, make -- might go for him. at this point, if those ones, and we are still waiting for results, suddenly trump is short 99 for results, suddenly trump is short by 17. that is very little indeed. let me show you what she has to do. she has to take lowa, wisconsin, pennsylvania... she is still short 99 pennsylvania... she is still short by 28 if you get pennsylvania. short by 28 if you get pennsylvania. she is still short by 28 if you get pennsylvania. she probably has to take wisconsin and michigan. michigan and lowa together.
she has to get, of these battle ground states, more than she did at the beginning. suddenly we are asking the question, the completely other way round. if he is ahead in these places where we thought she would take quite easily, it becomes tougher. political, the big political work site, is now calling florida for donald trump. indeed. some others are as well. we are not ready to project. nobody say it isn't going that way. let's go to jon sopel at clinton headquarters. what is the mood there now? funereal. disappointed, this -- dismayed, disbelieving. and actually, 1 dismayed, disbelieving. and actually, i would say that some people have already started to drift away into the new york night. the party they had anticipated has not materialised. and i think you are seeing an awful lot of people kind of looking at how things are going and looking at the picture
of the map as it stands and thinking, it is not going to be. an incredible feeling for democrats who thought fighting donald trump, how could they possibly lose? may be the same sort of feeling that the politicians who called the referendum on brexit who called the referendum on brexit in the uk had, that they thought they wouldn't but there is clearly a feeling with conventional politics that it is failing to deliver for enough people that it should do. and this is the response that someone who comes along as an outsider and says, i am going to shake it up, whatever the flaws in their personality, is resonating more than a hillary clinton, who has been a conventional politician for three decades. throughout this campaign we have talked about how few routes mr trump as to the white house. i think we are beginning to look at how few routes mrs clinton as to the
white house? i think exactly as emily said. house? i think exactly as emily said. i think the boot is now on the other foot. we are now looking at what hillary clinton would have to do to win. her paths seem to be narrowing. as you see the way the moh narrowing. as you see the way the votes in other states have unfolded, she really has to do very well now. there is a big cheer going up. i'm not sure what that is for. i think people are cheering to keep their spirits up. i think california has come in. california has come in for ej come in. california has come in for a hillary clinton. nia has come in for a hillary clinton. california has come in for a hillary clinton. which is not exactly a surprise. cheering. nevertheless, it is making them happy. it is the biggest state them happy. it is the biggest state in the union. t is the biggest state in the union. it is the biggest state in the union. if you have won, why wouldn't you cheer? you have won, why wouldn't you cheer?
there was never any prospect she wasn't going to win california. it is what is happening in the midwest that is of much more concern. people thought donald trump, what are you doing going to michigan and wisconsin? we are now waiting and we are seeing why you went there. that looks like very promising territory for him. all right. thank you for that. jon sopel at the clinton campaign headquarters. just coming to life for the first time in a while as california was announced. the point of that cheering was bigger than california. this has put hillary clinton into the lead for the first time in quite a while. for people watching those screens at those big parties, just to see your candidate come i live in this race is a big moment. it will be a relief, even if a temporary relief. she is short by 80 electoral college votes. donald trump is short by
98. he has the higher mountain to climb, based on the states that have actually been called. he has just added ohio to his tally. hillary clinton has added california and hawaii. it takes her a little bit closer. she is still short by 80. as we showed you before, apart from washington and oregon, which are more likely to settle in the blue camp, a lot of these other ones, florida, georgia, north carolina, michigan and wisconsin even, those seem to be putting donald trump in the lead. if you start taking those out, she has narrower chances to get td out, she has narrower chances to get to the white house. at this point, as everybody in the whole realised, she is now ahead. it is a good tally if you are a democrat. she may not be ahead for much longer. here is a dramatic development. it is just a projection, but from the new york times, the bastien, the home of liberal journalism in the united states. an incredible support for
the democrats and for mrs clinton. they are now saying that donald trump has a 95% chance of being the next president of the united states. have this crazy sort they of dialled thing. if you look on the web, the person who is running it says there is a 66% that clinton wins the popular vote and trump wins the electoral college, so 1 popular vote and trump wins the electoral college, so i am not sure electoral college, so i am not sure i would take the upshot at this point and take it too we were taking the upshot seriously earlier when it showed mrs clinton winning! iron no. 538 . com, which is the one website which said, this is much more volatile and gave her less of a chance of winning, is much closer to even.
in pennsylvania, a state which was almost a sure thing for her is not a sure thing. she has won by a big margin in philadelphia, as you would expect. the numbers from the rowell areas are stronger. wisconsin, we know the results are pretty much in from milwaukee, a democratic stronghold, and she is going to struggle to win wisconsin. if she loses pennsylvania, wisconsin 04:49:25,1000 --> 04:49:28,020 and michigan, which is a real possibility, she loses the white house and, right now, she's got to win three states which are in toss-up category and don't look great for her. if we stand back a bit at the moment and see where we are going here. if the new york times is right, it's more certain to be right and many others but, first of all, donald trump did a hostile takeover of the republican party and he won the nomination against what most mainstream opinion thought was
impossible. he'd be gone by new hampshire and go back to making reality tv shows or whatever. now, at the very least, he is a small way away from really dissing the whole political establishment in the united states, and the media establishment. and pollsters, strategists and everybody that has commented on american politics for els commented on american politics for far longer than i have. this would be the upset of american political history. if somebody comes into office who has never held political office, made his name as a reality television star, and has frankly not offered very many in-depth proposals, has alienated some of america's key allies around the world and, if he still wins, given all of that, i think it is, as much as anything, two things, a reflection of hillary clinton and how much
she is disliked as a candidate, and a reflection of an antiestablishment mood that we are seeing, not just here but in other countries as well. let's go to emily, because you have breaking news on another critical battle ground. in the last few seconds, north carolina has been called for donald trump, projected for him, only 51% share of the vote. they have got 92% of the precincts in. this is a very interesting state. it was won ones for obama and then taken back for the republicans by mitt romney. donald trump will be very pleased to hold onto this in his red state category, 51% share for donald trump, giving him 15 electoral college votes. that is really what his campaign needs. it's a big philip. if he can take north carolina and florida which, as
some networks are already projecting that for donald trump, suddenly the whole pathway becomes much easier. there were lots of questions about north carolina, whether they had allowed the polling stations to be open for enough days to allow some of the african-american vote to come forward and voting early voting. it's been the focus of a lot of electoral tension. it's a changing demographic, younger, more educated, more mixed, and yet, on a night like tonight, donald trump has managed to hang onto it for the republican party. this outsider has taken this state and kept it red. that will be a real triumph for him tonight, 1 think. the north carolina result is clearly significant. the biggest presidential race upset in modern american politics was in 1948. that's when harry truman was thought to have no chance of being re-elected, but he won it. and all of the media
establishment and political establishment thought he had no chance. the chicago tribune even printed a famous front page even printed a famous front page saying the other candidate won that is the biggest ever, until tonight, if donald trump wins, that will be the biggest ever upset in american politics. there they are in times square, below where we are broadcasting to you tonight. sorry, that is not times square. i wondered, because it is new york, and i was slightly wondering why they were cheering in new york. but, of course, it is the trump headquarters. and therefore it is no surprise that they are cheering. ore it is no surprise that they are cheering. and therefore it is no surprise that they are cheering. i suspect that they are now beginning td suspect that they are now beginning to think that they have victory within their grasp. no question. it the start of tonight, we said that the path was so narrow for donald trump, and the path for her is so narrow. north carolina was huge.
this is a reflection of the social evangelicals coming out and saying, we are upset by a lot of things washington has been doing, they are upset about the transgender bathroom issue. now, looking at donald trump's path, he has a chance to win trump's path, he has a chance to win in lowa, new the path for her is getting smaller. if i was in team clinton, 1 her is getting smaller. if i was in team clinton, i would be rather concerned. one thing that is so interesting is that, in every presidential election, we always say it is the women's vote that elects the united states president, and we had assumed hillary clinton would get the majority of the votes of american women. but we have also seen this division within american politics between what we call red state feminism and blue state feminism, and some of the hatred we see, l feminism, and some of the hatred we see, i believe, towards hillary clinton on the part of some american women who lived in red states are people who feel that american feminism has left
them behind, do not respect the decision to stay at home, to maybe home-school your children, and feel left behind by that movement, and a large number of those women supported sarah pailin, and i believe they will those women supported sarah pailin, and 1 believe they will support donald trump simply because of that one issue. they feel left behind. the exit polled showed that 61% of people who voted didn't think that donald trump was qualified to be president, and i think this is a phenomenon we have to look at globally. people who didn't think he was qualified to be president voted for him, a sign of a deeper discontent in a backlash against the establishment and status quo and leadership and, as we look ahead to italy, to france, to germany, possibly, to a lot of other countries that are going to be facing leadership challenges, this, not only be fact they are going to have to deal with maybe newt gingrich as secretary of state, but the
fact that they are going to have their own troubles. there will be chills going up and down the spines of macro hungary elects a pretty hard right government and it doesn't matter that much outside hungary. greece elects a marxist government. it is interesting, significant in its way, but it doesn't matter that much outside greece. when the united states of america, with all of its important alliances around the world and its economic clout in the world, and its significance, elects a non-mainstream politician, that is significant beyond belief. and the thing about donald trump is he isn't really hard right or hard left. you could make a cogent argument, and we have in this election two new york democrats running, were it not for some of the neatest things he has said. let's go to ohio, because we have been talking a lot about the midwestern states and whether hillary clinton can hang onto that blue
wall that is protecting her, giving her still a chance to win the presidency. and it is looking very shaky, that wall. we saw the first stone crumbling in ohio. barbara plett usha is in cleveland. what are they saying there? well, there was always a chance that donald trump would take ohio, quite a good chance, but the margin by which he has taken it has got quite a few people surprised. i have got a democrat in the republican here. tom, you voted for mrs 04:57:36,1000 --> 04:57:37,411 clinton. how do you feel about the 12 points by which mr trump won it? pretty sad. coming from an area of unions and stuff like that to have that big a margin is pretty impressive. the unions were officially backing mrs clinton, would they. yes. perhaps the members were not.
yes, some were not. you voted for mr trump. how do you feel about his margin of winning? were you expecting it? \ expected a single digit win. i was he would win because, with all due respect to my friend tom, i was so encouraged by my fellow lowans that common sense would win out. the leadership hasn't done anything for 30 years. i think they realised a change by somebody who is a problem solver, and it is a unifying message that goes beyond republican- democrat. is this democrat versus republican, liberal versus conservative? i don't think so. i think it is something which goes beyond that. what is it then? i think it is classes of people. there is a silent group, middle-class people, urban people, rural people who have no voice. he is speaking in
plain terms for them, not in legalese, elitist terms, but in plain language that people understand. a lot of economic pain, you think, this reflects, tom is to mock you struggled about whether to support mrs clinton. the way the area has been here, it has been down drastically. 1 believe that is why a lot of the union or people in general had with mr trump. mainly because he is a businessman. he says he is going to bring business back, things like that, so possibly that is why people went with him. but why didn't you? i don't believe he will bring those businesses back. don't believe he will bring those businesses back. this is ej bring those businesses back. this is a man who has businesses out of this country. why are they here? why isn't he supporting and giving these people in america jobs? his businesses are giving other people jobs for obviously less money and hurting us. that is a
piece of his empire. he is a global businessman. i am a native new yorker. i saw how he helped revitalise new york city, made it safe with rudy giuliani, and the development he did. that is why people choose to visit new york city and not necessarily baltimore or detroit. trump is a developer, he hires people, he is a problem solve. well maybe people will be choosing td well maybe people will be choosing to visit ohio, cleveland after this win. what is interesting is that ohio has chosen the president in 1964, so we will see shortly, 1 think, whether it has done again. thanks for that. an increasing number of media outlets are now projecting florida for donald trump. we are not quite ready to do that, but i think it is pretty clear the way things are going. the next state we turn to will be pennsylvania, where things are not going
very well for hillary clinton either. let's go over to laura trevelyan at trump hq. i should imagine things are going pretty strong there, laura. yes, andrew, and fox news behind me is called florida, north carolina and ohio, projected at trump is winning ohio, projected at trump is winning [oe ohio, projected at trump is winning in all i'm joined by tom phelps, a republican from texas who ran for congress. when we looked at that board, donald trump is up in the electoral college, he is up in the popular vote. what is happening? well, it is people that have been ignored are speaking. people that the establishment class has pushed to decide, people might want -- that work $30, $50 an hour inner-city jobs. his trade argument is well founded. are we about to see the same country that elected barack obama
elected donald trump? believe so. i think it is headed in that direction. . i think it is headed in that direction. i think it is headed in that direction. i think that both barack obama and donald trump are passionate about what they believe in, and people sense that, they sense the genuine aspect of donald trump. the media can pile on and take sound bites to try and paint him in a get neck -- in a negative light, but i don't believe what the media says. but for those people of mexican heritage, and he has called some mexicans criminals, rapists, he has talked about building a wall, for those people who might be frightened by what he represents, what would you say? i think that is media spin. i think the way he came across was misinterpreted. i think he cares about the people of mexico. that is why he went and met the president. he understands populations around the world are going to have some folks that do bad
things. 1 going to have some folks that do bad things. i don't think that says what he thinks about latin american culture. being a person who has spent a lot of time in mexico, driven over the border, spending a lot of time in arizona where there is a federal 05:03:12,1000 --> 05:03:15,053 sign saying not to drive over it, and my good friend who 1 drive over it, and my good friend who i live with them is a mexican national said, don't drive over it. it's not a blinkered statement. he has more latinos support as well that the media doesn't want to [ica how do you rate his chances in the upper midwestern states, which could be his route to the presidency? michigan, wisconsin, if you can flip one of those, he could be there. michigan, wisconsin, if you can flip one of those, he could be therei haven't been glued to the tv. 1 believe he is rocking it. i think that what we are seeing, all we saw two of the states that a pollster said he had to have. for me, 1
particularly trust that guy. frank luntz. i feel extremely good. how do you extra -- explain the fact that you extra -- explain the fact that [oe you extra -- explain the fact that in all three of the debates donald trump did not seem to be as informed as hillary clinton, to have as many answers as she did, and yet so far tonight he is coming out do people want a different kind of leader? they do not want a politician. if he was that can a politician, he would know every president of every country, but -- but probably doesn't! hillary probably comes close to knowing that. 1 probably comes close to knowing that. i think it is a referendum... they want someone real. politicians are in a bubble. icians are in a bubble. they are not listening. that is what i got in allston. municipally, they were not listening. they asked me to run for congress. back to your question, it's about people wanted
to feel like they are heard. they are certainly being heard tonight. todd phelps. you can hear the chant behind me, usa, usa. people here at trump headquarters start of the night thinking they were going to lose. now they believe the white house is in their grasp. some of the trump support as we hoped to speak to tonight, we cannot get them yet. they do not want to leave that party. who can blame them? what is happening tonight is being watched with fascination by every government around the world. none more so than the british government. the british government knows almost nothing about donald trump. they will have to become fast learners. mr trump has set when it comes to free trade deals, britain will be at the
top of the queue, rather than the back of the queue, as mr obama said. with the republican senate and republican house, maybe a free-trade deal will come on the british government agenda rather quickly. there will be ej agenda rather quickly. there will be a friendly audience for them in washington. let's get more results. we have just had oregon. it has been projected for hillary clinton. not a big surprise. it has not voted republican since ronald reagan. every little bit counts at this stage of the game. 54% to 40% in favour of hillary clinton. not a state favour of hillary clinton. not a favour of hillary clinton. not a state that will come as any particular surprise. it was factored into particular surprise. it was factored nckus particular surprise. it was factored into the west coast wins. these are the battle grounds we are still watching. this is where it gets interesting. in florida, you can see donald trump is ahead. 99% of the precincts in donald trump is ahead. 99% of the precinets in and donald trump is ahead. 99% of the precincts in and he is on 49% share of the vote. some networks are calling this.
do not expect this to go easily. it was so tightly fought over in 2000. we may have to wait until the bitter end to get the result from florida. he is projected ahead. 8. wisconsin has got him 49% of the vote. if you start to add 49% of the vote. if you start to add in the tallis here, he starts to look like he has got a real pathway. -- tallis. =- tallis. -- tallis. i'm going to add in the polls. this is how they have decreed the safer estates will fall. we are going to play with the calculator button. imagine that he has taken those states in which he has ahead. he has taken those states in which he has ahead. florida was the first. michigan was the second. wisconsin was the third. he is now short by two. that means, he is now short by two. that means, in essence, if you
just pick up either new hampshire or lowa, or any of the bigger ones, he has done it. look what happens if you take new hampshire on that tally, he has crossed the line. not by a lot but it doesn't have to be by a lot. 272. just based on what he has got, on the projections where he is ahead, and on one other state, new hampshire. it looks possible. what a change compared to when we started, when it was the difficulty of mr trump becoming present. -- president. if mrs clinton holds onto michigan, is njie still in contention? mrs clinton holds onto michigan, is niie still in contention? she has to win wisconsin in pennsylvania, and three states that look pretty grim del three states that look pretty grim for. of states that emily pate... as you talk, i am filling them in so our viewers can do the tally.
put in wisconsin. she will win minnesota and washington. and nevada. if she does those, she is on a path. but there is a twist we need to remember. we have at least one elector for mrs clinton in washington, and a second one who has hinted at it who has said they would not vote for her. if she got 271 and the two did not vote for her, she ball the two did not vote for her, she still does not become president. she has this very narrow path. the other states that have not been called, arizona and lowa, at this point, looked very strong for mr trump. she has basically one path to victory. and he has many others. that is a total change. are we looking at a tie at total change. are we looking at a tie at this stage? it is possible only with a
faithless electorate. in nebraska, she won that one electoral vote. is the story democrats 05:10:08,1000 --> 05:10:11,044 and hillary clinton specifically necklet hillary clinton specifically necklet -- neglecting those rust belt she did not visit wisconsin once after the democratic primary. she only went twice between the spring and last friday to michigan. she hasn't been there. she hasn't paid her dues. it is reflective perhaps of a bigger issue, which is the democrats taking those states, largely white states, working-class white states, for granted. there is certainly some truth. it is also that she didn't expect a wave of this sort. she did spend a lot of time in pennsylvania, which is now giving your trouble. another interesting phenomenon is that the trump and the republican party and very little money on sophisticated get out to vote programmes. mrs clinton had the most sophisticated
and expensive get out to vote effort we have ever seen. it shows that those things only take you so far. he had a motivation for voters that didn't he had a motivation for voters that elchin he had a motivation for voters that didn't require finding them and getting them out there. they were there. even many not think he was qualified to be president. but by god, they wanted to make a stand. that really is a new minority group dominating our politics. fox news is reporting that canada's immigration website has crashed! i am getting that from the former prime minister of sweden. i am taking it quite seriously. we have got futile. it has been predicted for trump. there was some? whether the cia spy who lives in utah may be able to take this for the independent vote. it has been predicted for trump and giving him a whopping 53% share. it seems really whopping 53%
it seems really -- even in this state, that has not been enough to deter them from voting republican and four donald trump, a man who does not conform to their type of candidate for republicans. it tends to suggest this has not been about one candidate or another, but about social values. about retaining the social conservatism of their estates. maybe it comes down to the supreme court and the kind of judgments that will be made there. that is perhaps later in the night. (tm that is perhaps later in the night. you can see what that has done to the tally. clinton assured by 73, trump short by 77. it is an incredibly tight race. we are still waiting to hear washington, nevada, arizona and all these key races as well. that is a very strong result of mr trump in
utero. at one stage, tule of mr trump in utero. at one stage, mr mcmullan, a mormon, he had hopes of winning that state. his performance was pretty poor. i want td performance was pretty poor. i want to go back to jeremy vine in a minute. before i do, this isn't just looking like a victory, heading for ej looking like a victory, heading for a victory for mr trump, though we do not know for sure yet, it is a lot more than that, big enough as that is? we spoke a month ago about the possibility of a wave election in america, and we were thinking it was hillary clinton riding that wave. it now looks like we could be going the other way. we are also looking at a republican senate and a republican house. with all of that comes the possibility of not just one seat on the supreme court, which would swing it back to being a republican supreme court, but two seats, which really makes it a republican supreme court. we are looking, andrew, if all of these numbers bear out, and what norman is saying about his
predictions for wisconsin and michigan bear out, we are looking at an america that is very republican for the next 40 years. -- four years. but is led by a president, who, if you take his economic policies, and is less hawkish foreign policy, is actually not as conservative as this movement that he is leading. this is going to be fascinating. we are certainly looking at a republican era in american politics. the impact of that around the world will be tremendous. one of the areas where mr trump has done very well and concentrated on was the midwest. the states around the great lakes. the states that go from wisconsin all the way through td from wisconsin all the way through to pittsburgh, pennsylvania. it is a kind of middle america par excellence. that is where mr trump as particularly resonated with blue-collar
workers. let's get more on this from jeremy vine. yes, the result from ohio still echoing around here. he really did get white men in particular turning out for him. at some point here in the midwest, hillary clinton needs td the midwest, hillary clinton needs to build a fire break and stop these losses to the republicans spreading. let's look first of all at michigan. we look first of all at the seam of white voters going for trump. how vulnerable is michigan? it is not one of the most white states in that area but it is 76% white. the us averages 62%. you can see the map of michigan as it has been coloured in. (tm michigan as it has been coloured in. you can see detroit's. detroit, wherever you live in the world, you know it for the
automobile industry and all the pain it suffered, the recession. that sums up the feeling recession. that sums up the feeling in and around the united states. ing in and around the united states. that sums up the feeling in and around the united states. the disaffection powering trump. what is happening with those voters? those white voters that are at the core of trump's appeal. the answer, according to our exit poll, 64% republican. andrew. in the last few seconds they have just called florida for donald trump. 1%. incredibly tight. but not as tight as it was last tight. but not as tight as it was last time around. last time it was never called at all. 100% of the precincts in. they are confident this goes in the red tally for donald trump. that is why it matters. 29 electoral college votes. with that on the map, he can do practically anything. let's just have a look.
his tally has shot up to 222. he is short by 48. if he adds in arizona, which was won by mitt romney last time, if he takes lowa, won by romney, if he takes georgia, where he is ahead, if he takes alaska, he is only short by 12. what that means at this stage is that he can take michigan or pennsylvania, or a combination of wisconsin and new hampshire, plus, we can assume, one of wisconsin and new hampshire, plus, we can assume, one or two, then he has done it. he hasn't done it yet. all those races are still very heated and very on. it is important td heated and very on. it is important to notice that at this point the only states he has actually taken, the only ones that have changed hands, are all high and florida. -- ohio. we began by saying that
if donald trump is defined as pat, he needs to take ohio, florida and pennsylvania. he has taken two of them. suddenly it is looking much more possible. it does indeed. let's get some more pictures of the celebrations among the trump supporters. lg as you can see, they are pretty happy. there are a number of states he still has to take, but if you look at what has happened tonight, it is a pretty fair quess that arizona, georgia and alaska are now going to go for mr trump. we don't know for sure, of course, but given the way tougher states have been where he has done so well, he must now be pretty confident that some of these states are going to fall. so it is clear that trump
quarters think he has one. we don't know that yet, but they see the way the wind is blowing. he is getting close at 222. you don't want to count your chickens before they are hatched, katty, but if you were in the trump campaign, you would be beginning to think, we have done it. wonder whether that cheer we were listening td whether that cheer we were listening to wasn't because fox news has now called wisconsin for trump. we are not ready to do that yet, but that is from fox news and they will of course be playing fox news at camp headquarters, so they will have heard that and maybe that is what the cheer is about. it is looking increasingly difficult
for hillary clinton to find herself a route to 270. ben labolt, president obama, your former boss, worked his heart out to get hillary clinton elected. he was there last night in pennsylvania. what does this say about president obama's legacy as well? here is what is so surprising about tonight. president obama right now is at a 54% approval rating in america, the highest approval rating we have had since ronald reagan in 1988. so there is a real question tonight about who is showing up at the polls. norm spoke about this earlier, that african-american turnout is a bit soft. when you look at these numbers, it may be a different electorate that elected donald trump than barack obama. we may have seen a soft
turnout among african-americans and millennials and some of the older white voters could be the decisive margin. how do you account for what you are seeing tonight, ben, in terms of passing the baton from president obama potentially to a president donald trump? one of the things i have heard on the campaign trail, mostly from african-american voters and from women who have said to me that they think there is a section of the american community who just looked at the idea of having our! followed by hillary clinton and they said, an african-american man followed by a woman was too much of a shock after 43 white men. there could be some cultural factors driving it. once we see the exits, we will look at that. there is also a question about whether they are voting against washington in general. while the president reached out
to a republican congress... let me interrupt you, because we have more results coming in. emily, it is fair td results coming in. emily, it is fair to say the jigsaw pieces are falling into mr trump's favour. .l to say the jigsaw pieces are falling into mr trump's favour. i expect another cheer from the trump crowd. we have just had lowa projected for trump. here is why i always interesting. it was the first caucus and the one that trump didn't win. caucus and the one that trump didn't win. he lost out to ted cruz. we talked about it being a religious white community, traditionally the kind of demographic that played well for the texas senator ted cruz, and yet lowa has chosen donald trump. it gives him those six electoral college votes. it is not the biggest number votes. it is not the biggest number in terms of the races that are going on, but it fills in the jigsaw and makes it even harder now for hillary clinton. she is left with a range of races here, and
many of them, she is not a head in. he is ahead in arizona. she might be ahead in nevada, but it is becoming much more clear that trump's pathway is becoming easier. we are waiting for georgia. he has got utah, which was georgia. he has got utah, which was in the balance. got utah, which was in the balance. everything could ell in the balance. everything could fall into place with the next three ig fall into place with the next three or four results. some networks are calling georgia for donald trump, which would not be surprising. we are not yet ready to project it. pennsylvania is still in contention. reports are that mrs clinton is ball reports are that mrs clinton is still ahead there. let's go to philadelphia. she may be ahead, but we have got some very worried clinton supporters here.
1 we have got some very worried clinton supporters here. i am in a historic bar in philadelphia, one of her strongholds. and it was going well at the beginning of the night, but now there is a real tension. 1 have effectively assembled the league of nations here. i have miriam from iran, 1 league of nations here. i have miriam from iran, i have a lady from poland, a gentleman from india, another from kosovo. how worried are you? i am a bit worried. i was looking forward to hillary winning and being the first woman president. (tm and being the first woman president. you have been talking about immigration all night. is this why you are worried? he is a threat to the presence of future immigrants in the country. that is a real trend. we have seen what he has expressed about immigrants, which doesn't help us. but you're in this country legally.
why would you be worried? am extremely worried, because he stands against everything we believe stands against everything we believe in and why we are here in the first it has always been about a country that accepts everybody, all nations, and now we have potentially ej nations, and now we have potentially a president that is against everything we believe in. miriam, is that what you feel? absolutely. i am a generation iranian american, and coming here was filled with opportunity. 1 coming here was filled with opportunity. i was able to get my degree in medicine. . i was able to get my degree in medicine. i was able to get my degree in medicine. one of the reasons i love this country is the diversity and that you can get whatever opportunities you strive for as long as you work hard. so this is very sad. and people should be given a chance to come here and work for what they believe and get the opportunities they can. this is fie the opportunities they can. this is also a historic moment for
you. nobody has been declared a winner yet, remember. absolutely. this election in general is historic, considering that a woman was nominated for the presidency. 1 considering that a woman was nominated for the presidency. i am proud as a woman. there is still a chance and if not, this still goes down as a major event. having hillary clinton represent the rest of us is a beautiful thing. hopefully, we can learn from this. (tm hopefully, we can learn from this. you were saying jokingly that you would catch the next plane out of here if trump wins, but you are joking? i am joking because this is such a great nation and 1 joking? i am joking because this is such a great nation and i have so much pride and as an immigrant eau much pride and as an immigrant myself with my family, we came here because of america as a nation that thrives on its diversity. the fact that we have someone potentially become our president whose pews rhetoric about hate against immigrants and diversity, it's a scary thought. that was why 1 immigrants and diversity, it's a scary thought. that was why i said that. all of you, thank you
very much. you have been terrific. thanks for giving us your views on a very contentious evening. of course, we ball contentious evening. of course, we still don't know the result in pennsylvania. we are going to start getting reaction now from around the world to the news from here in the united states. donald trump is not there yet, but he is looking increasingly likely to get to that magic number of 270. it is the news that europeans will wake up to and that asians are already digesting. they will be watching closely in america's southern neighbour in mexico. the bbc's katie watson is there. we have joked this evening about how we have been watching the paso during this campaign. it goes up and down according to how well donald trump is doing, but what will be the reaction in mexico when they elg be the reaction in mexico when they wake up to the news tomorrow morning if that donald trump has potentially made it past the
magic number of 270 electoral college votes? i don't think many mexicans have gone to bed they are watching very closely. i have just been in a bar where they belact have just been in a bar where they started the evening pretty upbeat. in the last few weeks, they felt donald trump was not going to win and of course, he doesn't have many fans in mexico. as the night has gone on, that has changed. people have become more worried. the peso has been tied to what has been happening in politics in the united states in the past few months, and it dropped as much as 10%, the biggest fall since 1994, when mexico devalued its peso and there was a huge crisis here. that is the main issue in mexico. politically, it has been damaging, but what does it mean for the mexican economy if trump wins ? for the mexican economy if trump wins? that is what mexicans are worried about. at is what mexicans are worried about. one of the things donald trump has proposed, as you know, is
banning all remittances from mexicans who are in the united states illegally back to mexico. it is a big source of states illegally back to mexico. it dc cits states illegally back to mexico. it is a big source of revenue for the mexican economy. it is not clear how he could do that. he would firstly have to identify these people and then impound all of their remittances, but i imagine it is the kind of thing that would make mexicans think that a donald trump presidency is not going to be great for the mexican economy, and what about the mexicans who are here illegally? what happens to them under a donald trump presidency? absolutely. remittances are worth $25 billion. that is more than oil $25 billion. that is more than oil in terms of foreign revenue. an oil in terms of foreign revenue. that is more than oil in terms of foreign revenue. it is a massive deal for mexico. not only that, donald trump has been talking about renegotiating the north american free trade agreement, which is a big concern for mexico because it has done very well. mexico and the united states are neighbours and huge trading
partners, so it is a massive concern for any mexican, whether they have family legally or illegally in the united states. i was talking to a mexican who also has american nationality who voted has american nationality who voted in these he came in this evening quaranteeing that trump was going to win. and it looks like his predictions are coming into play. but for the average mexican, whether it is remittances being brought over from the united states or just general trade, it is a huge concern. mexicans will be watching this closely. by the way, one of the things that donald trump never rowed back on, because he has rowed back on some of the more controversial things he said, like the ban on muslims, he never rolled back on the fence macro. he has said until the end that there will be
a wall. the mexican government they would not pay for it. the question is, could he go to the senate and congress and said, right, 1 he go to the senate and congress and eetematels ail ret a he go to the senate and congress and said, right, i want the money to build a wall? who knows? let's go to democratic headquarters and get some pictures. it is obviously not a happy seem, people are in tears. some of the younger supporters of hillary clinton, this has come as a shock to them, which is why it is hurting so much, people shaking their heads, stunned into silence. 1 quess as they moved into tonight's results coming out, they were expecting that their candidate would be the next president of the united states. it has a sense of more of a elg states. it has a sense of more of a wake than anything else now as they come to terms with it. so there
we are. we don't yet know who has won. mr trump has not passed the 270 mark, but it is clear from these faces that a lot of hillary clinton supporters are concluding that the game is up and that their woman will not be the next president. let's get more reaction from the markets. our correspondent on the markets is in singapore. what is happening? there is a real sense of disbelief amongst many of the traders at this singapore trading floor now that it looks like mr trump has an increasing chance of victory. and we are seeing that reflected across asian share markets. all of the major asian share markets are down significantly. 2%. that is as a result of the fact that you
are seeing many investors in asia rushing to safe haven stocks and currencies like the japanese yen. there is a real risk aversion is now, and the sentiment is really souring. that is because a clinton victory was seen as broadly positive for asia's economies because it was, as one analyst put it to me ahead of the election, a case of the devil you know. mrs clinton is very well-known in asia. she has been secretary of state and has travelled td secretary of state and has travelled to these parts before. but mr trump is seen as the unknown, and that brings with it uncertainty, volatility , brings with it uncertainty, volatility, and also some of the comments he has made about slapping 45% import tariffs on chinese goods, for instance. all of that concerns many asian investors, and that is what you are seeing reflected across share markets and currencies in asia today. clearly there will be rubbish
and is clearly there will be rubbish and is in the financial markets when they open in europe, london and then new in a moment who will speak to robin wright, a secretary of state for labour under the clinton administration. emily, what's the arithmetic looking like? it's not over yet, but we have three races that are incredibly tight that matter and donald trump is ahead in each of them. wisconsin, head on 49% with 79% of the precincts in. arizona, clinton is three points behind. and trump is ahead by two percentage points in new hampshire. two percentage points in new hampshire. 67% of the precincts are in. if he gets those three states, he has another 25 electoral college votes. putting that into the maths. georgia has just been called. this is the projection for
trump, 52% share of the vote giving him 16 electoral college votes. going back to the map, going to the calculator, adding map, going to the calculator, adding in the ones that we were just looking wisconsin, arizona and new hampshire. look what it does to the maths. if he gets those three, and we just had georgia court, he is short by one and can do it with any of the states. he could even do it with one bit of maine, one congressional district gives him one point and he has crossed the line. it's very easy for him now. there we are, mr trump heading towards 270, but not there yet. it's not impossible by both end up with 269, just to complicate things, and throw it to the house of representatives. robin wright, the former labour secretary of the clinton administration is in berkely, california.
the democrats have been california. the democrats have been in the white house, and i think i have this right, for 16 out of the last 24 years. why have they lost the support of blue-collar workers? the democrats really turned their backs on a lot of the working class. e backs on a lot of the working class. it was in their pursuit of suburban swing voters and upper middle-class voters, and also very dependent on big money. as inequality widened in the united states, the democrats, like the official republican party who went after the affluent, because the affluent could support their campaigns. this astounding turn of events tonight, 1 campaigns. this astounding turn of events tonight, i believe is campaigns. this astounding turn of events tonight, 1 believe is very much an antiestablishment revolt, if you will, not unlike brexit. the establishment part of the republican party doesn't like donald trump. wall street does not like and doesn't support donald trump. big corporations in the united
states have by and large been supportive of clinton, not trump. you have to look at this as not only the democrats deserting blue-collar america, but fie deserting blue-collar america, but also as a lot of america, mostly blue-collar, basically deserting the establishment, abandoning the establishment and saying to the establishment of the united states, we are no longer going to settle for stagnant wages and declining hopes. would you agree, it's not clear how the democrats get these voters back? no, it's not clear at all. i think there will be, to say the least, a lot of soul-searching in the democratic party, as there has been and will be in the republican party. there is a massive realignment in both parties. bernie sanders, the primary challenger for clinton in the democratic party, took 22 states.
this is the most unlikely candidate anybody came up with to be ej candidate anybody came up with to be a democratic challenger, and then you have donald trump almost at this hour winning the presidency. again, the most unlikely challenger to the typical republican candidate. he has as much to do and as much in common with mitt romney or george w bush as he does with most democrats. 1 with mitt romney or george w bush as he does with most democrats. i can't describe for you the extent to which america is surprised and shocked, even including most of the business class, most of the republicans who had been assuming that the polls and the assumptions that underlie all the official washington and official new york thinking that hillary clinton would be elected president. how much world congress, even if it's a republican congress, be a construct on mr trump's
taxing and spending plans? the projection from the budget office projects a massive decrease in the debt if he went ahead with his plans. can he start a trade war without the support of congress? there must be great fears that if he means what he says and trade policy, we are moving back to the 1930s, and a beggar thy neighbour policy. let's assume for the sake of your argument that congress stays in republican hands, both the house and senate, 1 congress stays in republican hands, both the house and senate, i think they will be very resistant to donald trump's budget plans because most republicans still believe in deficit reductions, small government. donald trump is very different from all that. donald trump has a gigantic budget deficit bill in his economic plan and is not small government at all. at the same time most republicans
in congress are free traders, the business class of america are free traders. here it gets interesting. under most of our trade laws, the president is a great deal of discretion to renegotiate them, or even turn his back on them. basically repeal those trade laws. that would put donald trump in a clash with congress, but the president does have that power. thank you for being with us tonight and going through some of those issues. we will talk more about them when the picture is clearer. you get ej when the picture is clearer. you get a sense there that there could well be a clash between eight trump presidency and even a republican congress. it's certainly true there could be a clash between a trump presidency and members of the republican business leading establishment. the question will be whether the house of representatives, many of whom support trump, and has been leaning
more conservative over the last few years, decides to fall in line with president trump, and it's hard to see why they wouldn't. we can go back to trump headquarters. you can see the crowd building and they will start waiting,, see the crowd building and they will start waiting, and they might start wondering when donald trump will come to address the crowd. he would normally wait until he gets to 270 and then the process would unfold where he comes out to address his supporters. we understand that he's spending time with his family, talking to them before going to the hilton hotel in midtown manhattan. laura trevelyan is there for us. what are you hearing?. what are you hearing? i have with me two loyal trump supporters. pastor james davies from ohio and a new york city councilman. it's quite the turnout. ohio, donald trump winning by nearly ten points
there. what happened? i think his message resonated. we are a rust belt state, and in that regard we have lost a lot of jobs the manufacturing leaving and going offshore. when he began to speak to that, like he said, it's a movement and people got behind that message. maybe it didn't resonate in the polls so much coming into it, but there was a huge groundswell that we knew was there of people who would come out to support him in the voting booth who wouldn't necessarily support him in public. behind us the tv screen is projecting that donald trump is just 16 electoral votes away from the white house. does that surprise you? i've supported trump since 2013, but even i have to admit that right now i'm surprised to some degree that we have won. you haven't quite, but nearly. the message was always right, the outsiders against the insiders. trump cornered the moment of people who were
frustrated with a system that never seems to benefit them. those are the people, as was said about ohio, pennsylvania and michigan, they were frustrated and they've come out. the popular vote is looking to be pretty close, so we would be a divided nation if president trump wins. if the president trump elect comes here tonight to address all of us, what tone do you want to hear him strike? of course, you want him to celebrate, but you also 05:43:30,1000 --> 05:43:33,290 want him to have a message of healing, bringing the country together. 1 have a message of healing, bringing the country together. i believe he will talk about that. about the little guy, the people having their republic back. we have been on the outside of it. 1 believe with my councilman and friend here, that now it's been put back in the hands of people and we will send our message to him and he will resonate that
and lead accordingly. this has been a very divisive and bruising campaign. tule very divisive and bruising campaign. mr trump had a lot to do with that, setting the tone of it. can he govern for all america if elected? yeah, sure, there have been times when he has said things that myself and others have disavowed, and he didn't use the right terminology. he chose the wrong words when describing the immigration system, but it doesn't detract from the concept that the immigration system has a problem that needs correcting. maybe he doesn't say the right thing all the time, doesn't choose the right words , all the time, doesn't choose the right words, but we need a fundamental change in the country and that's what voters have told them. donald trump doing better with african americans than mitt romney did. he was criticised in the campaign for having a patronising tone, you have never had it
so bad tone, you have never had it so bad in inner cities, why not because you have nothing to in inner cities, why not because you have nothing to lose ?. in inner cities, why not because you have nothing to lose? i agree to the degree that he was telling the truth. some people had a problem with the tone and venue, that it wasn't necessarily in black communities where he was making those statements, but where ever he talks, people listen. 1 those statements, but where ever he talks, people listen. i believe african-americans began to hurt his message and as a result they came at more than they thought. at one time ell more than they thought. at one time all the media said it would be less than 1%. i'm standing here, and there are thousands of others who were with him from the beginning, back when he announced, that we would be there. and now across the nation, we haven't seen the polling yet but we believe it will be a big number. not so sure we believe much of what exit polls tell us after tonight. the tone he has struck on foreign policy, nato allies having td foreign policy, nato allies having to pay their way, do you think
if he is elected president he would be so blunt in person? i believe the figure is 2% of gdp that they committed to nato funding, and some have not lived up to that. when the chips fall in terms of dealing with other countries, we might see a difference but he wasn't drunk in difference but he wasn't drunk in saying that other countries were not living up to what they were expected td living up to what they were expected to pay under the original nato -- but he wasn't wrong in saying. the mood in trump headquarters, people can see that a trump presidency, and maybe at the beginning of the night they didn't think it could be a possibility, but now they feel they can reach out and touch it. back to you, andrew and katty. this is turning out to be the most
remarkable political night in modern history. anywhere, in any country. donald trump promised brexit times ten. we thought brexit was in itself a remarkable event. it looks like he's delivering on his promise and he's beating brexit. it might not be times ten, but it certainly times two, three or four. certainly times two, three or four. i can't remember another election night like this. donald trump is now 26 electoral college votes away from being the next president of the united states. and there are a number of states that suggest he can do that. he's a little bit ahead in the nebraska second district, a state the nebraska second district, a the nebraska second district, a state that splits that would only give him one, but it all counts. mrs clinton is a little bit ahead in counts. mrs clinton is a little bit counts. mrs clinton is a little bit ahead in pennsylvania but trump counts. mrs clinton is a little bit cecen aol catching up. trump ahead in new hampshire, a little bit ahead in
michigan. wisconsin, many have called that for donald trump. is there anyway, as things stand, that hillary clinton can be the next president? it looks very difficult at this point. the pads seem to be closing. this comes as a huge surprise to democrats across the country. it comes as a huge surprise to pundits. and pollsters! stop the new york times is projecting that hillary clinton may win the popular vote. the president trump will have to bridge the divide trump will have to bridge the divide in this he used his campaign tonight in the divide, so it will be a long healing process. is mr trump a healer? is mr trump a healer? before he decided to run for president, he was pretty
much a democrat, so we know he changes. 1 pretty much a democrat, so we know he changes. i said at a little tongue in cheek, but we know he is willing to change his positions, and willing to change his positions, and i think that being so ego driven, you will want to get something done and i think he is willing to give up u and i think he is willing to give up on a lot of the things he ran this is a huge achievement for him. it is tremendous. donald trump started off the night saying his pathway is very narrow. that is mrs clinton's pathway now. she probably will not make it, as the odds are looking. credit where credit is due. he stayed focused, he kept on message, which was important, for the last nine or ten days. no one thought that would happen. and he ground it out, and so did his
team. e ground it out, and so did his team. it is worth remembering that donald trump has done this without the full backing of the republican party. they didn't throw their weight behind him. it was without president and laura bush, who didn't even vote for him. it was without the star power of michelle and barack obama, who have campaigned relentlessly for hillary clinton. he has done this pretty much by himself. the interesting thing about donald trump is that there are interesting thing about donald trump (bure u ccie icing interesting thing about donald trump is that there are not many donald trump surrogates, because this is a campaign about one person. some people said to me early in the course of this campaign, watch what this tells you about american television viewing habits, because people on the east coast and the west coast fail to appreciate the degree to which donald trump was familiar to ordinary americans in the middle of the country just from the apprentice. but this reliance on one person is a dangerous way to govern. he said he was his own top foreign policy adviser, so if he steps
into the oval office, he would be the first president in history to just rely on himself as his top adviser and he will really have to go into the job and change his mentality on that. i heard a turkish friends say, welcome to my world. this is very much like what they saw this is very much like what they saw in forget the coup. we had a vote where the urban, sophisticated population voted massively against him and the rural, nationalistic, religious population brought him into power, and we are having that kind of divide here. look at the role of mitch mcconnell now, who is role of mitch mcconnell now, who is in a tough the republican leader. trump will be pushing him to do things that a lot of republicans don't like. and we will also have the democrats in the senate, who will filibuster any of these initiatives that they view as reckless. and you're going
to see pressure on mcconnell. listen, i didn't support donald trump and 1 didn't see him winning, but he did say, i am a deal-maker. this is part of the skill set he will bring, because he is willing to compromise. we are moving into uncharted territory here. this is what makes it so fascinating. most people including ourselves have no idea what a trump presidency will look like and what a trump administration will consist of and who will take the most important positions. something has happened in american politics tonight that we are all [ete:tele] hale) politics tonight that we are all grappling to try to understand. let's go back to jeremy. looking back at that ohio result and whether it might be replicated in other so-called rust belt states, we mentioned michigan earlier. we are focusing here
on the vote of white people in michigan. why has he been successful? in states where there is ej successful? in states where there is a white population that is higher than average in the usa, with an average of 62%, he turns out voters and he wins. could he win michigan? let's look at what he has done among those white voters. it looks very good for him, because this is the majority of voters and it is white men we are talking about. if we include white women, we find trump include white women, we find trump in the lead there as in certain states, he has super mobilised the white vote. that leads you to wonder whether he might even take wisconsin. hillary clinton didn't even go to this state when she was campaigning. it wasn't thought to be on the republican target list. but look here.
82% white. (tm you can see how trump has powered through these states. white men in particular are voting for him. there will be a lot of analysis of this result. he has turned certain groups of voters into cohorts, and they have acted in a super concentrated way to get him elected, if that is what has happened. he has almost got white men in certain states to behave like a minority, and this has done a brilliant job for him. if these two states are confirmed for trump, there is no way back for hillary clinton. there is going to be so much analysis of this voting. e be so much analysis of this voting.
it is the opposite of centre ground politics, andrew. during the campaign, there was a lot of talk about inequality in america and how the top 1% had done so well, but average wages had barely grown but average wages had barely grown in real terms over the past 30 only recently did we see a bit of a spike. well, mr trump's victory will do something for inequality right away, because the financial markets look like they are heading for a massive crash when they open in europe and the united states. if you are wealthy with massive assets and stocks and bonds, you are going to take a major hit when they open. they could easily reverse, but for the moment, it looks like a meltdown being predicted. it is looking like that. dow futures have tumbled. futures have plunged 5%. we are getting the same story from markets in asia. i am trying to scroll through my twitter feed fast enough, because
the news is coming into these markets very fast. you are right, it can bounce back up again, but don't be surprised if, when new york opens tomorrow, we don't see a similar sinking on the dow of the dollar. the dollar has been very strong against sterling, of course. you all know that, having come over here. (tm know that, having come over here. you will have a very big impact on the financial markets. that doesn't necessarily have to last, but it will be the instant reaction of traders and investors, which is negative at the prospect of president donald trump. let's go back to kim ghattas at clinton headquarters. i described it earlier as looking like a wake. i would think that description still holds? yes, the mood here is very grim, people holding hands, hugging.
some of them are teary eyed. not quite ready to admit defeat, but very grim. even if she still squeaks by and has a very narrow win, they will be asking themselves, how could this happen? how could it be that she didn't have a bigger victory? and we are still looking at the possibility of a and a trump victory. i have spoken to her supporters and friends, and they say that to them, this looks terrifying. they told me that they were very upbeat yesterday and still putting a brave face on today. they think she can still win if she gets michigan, but it is getting very narrow. a lot of questions will be asked about the ground operation, about the internal polling and
frankly about polling in general. that is the story of the night as well, because a lot of the exit polls were wrong initially. but also, this is your the connection between her and the voters, the connection between the washington establishment and middle america, the middle america that donald trump has so well connected with. i remember speaking to a clinton aide just remember speaking to a clinton aide jtbe remember speaking to a clinton aide just a few weeks ago. when i asked how they felt about their prospects, they said, we think we will win. and if we don't, then perhaps we don't know this country any more. and that is the other question they will be asking themselves. this disconnect that they didn't judge properly, exactly what was the message they had to give to voters, how to connect with them. for a very long time,
clinton's message was very negative. it was the anti-trump campaign. only in the last week or by campaign. only in the last week or so did she bring it upbeat tone. k or so did she bring it upbeat tone. only in recent days did her campaigning improved. you can already hear people say that if she had done this from the beginning, perhaps it would have served her better. but we are still waiting for the final result. there is occasionally some cheering when there is a bit of good news from here or there, but it is very grim. and it has turned very quickly. when we spoke earlier this evening, 1 and it has turned very quickly. when we spoke earlier this evening, i was telling you that her aides were feeling upbeat. they said things were looking good. they were confident, and something has gone terribly wrong when confident, and something has gone lae ieee ace confident, and something has gone terribly wrong when it comes to how the clinton campaign has carried out its operation, even the ground operation underestimating the surge of voters for
trump and how that cancelled out the surge in their favour that we saw in states like nevada and florida with hispanic voters. that was the latest report from the clinton headquarters. one small ray of hope that mrs clinton ball small ray of hope that mrs clinton still had was pennsylvania. it is worth 20 electoral college votes. it was a state that to begin with, people thought would be a stretch for mr trump to win. through most of the counting tonight, mrs clinton has been ahead. but now, with 94% of the precinets in, mr trump has been ahead. but now, with 94% of the precincts in, mr trump has been ahead. but now, with 94% of the precinets in, mr trump has just taken a small lead. so it could be that as more of the rural areas of pennsylvania come in, mrs clinton is doing well in philadelphia. she will have taken pittsburgh as well in the west of the state.
but the rural areas in between, where they shot the deer hunter, it is very different from pittsburgh, pennsylvania. they are now coming in for mr trump and it looks like he could get that too. and if he gets that, emily, he is not there, but he's pretty much there. we have learned that it might be time to throw professional political polling out of the window for a while i go back to paul the octopus and his eight tentacles! it seems as good a chance of any of getting things right. we are going to call him up. if you have just joined us, this is the state of the race as things stand. everything coloured in red has been taken by donald trump. everything in blue has been taken by hillary clinton for the democrats. and everything in grey is still in play. those are the big battles we are waiting for. are the big battles we are waiting for. those are the big battles we are waiting for. this is what we are looking at, the 270
electoral college votes needed to win the white house. as things stand, donald trump is only short by 26. hillary clinton is short by 61. her race, given the state of the races we are looking at, is almost impossible now. so i have put this in a calculator mode. i am going to colour in states that she could ball colour in states that she could still win. she could still take nevada. that gives her another six and means she is short by 55. we could give her minnesota. that is another ten and she is short by 45. let's give her maine. she is still short by 42. as andrew was saying, donald trump is even in the lead in pennsylvania. he is in the leading minnesota and wisconsin.
let's imagine that the leading pennsylvania is very tight. she could still claw that back. ok come she has got it. does that do it? no. she's still short by 22 electoral college votes, and now we have to give her something to get her over the line that is not really in play, like arizona. at one stage it looked like it might be in play for the democrats, but not tonight. he is ahead in wisconsin, in michigan and new hampshire and the second congressional district of maine. so even if one of those comes right for her, imagine it is michigan, she ball her, imagine it is michigan, she still can't do it. she has to take michigan and wisconsin, or wisconsin and arizona, or wisconsin and new hampshire and maine second district. e hampshire and maine second district. it is getting increasingly difficult td it is getting increasingly difficult to see how she manages to pull that off when she is shot
by 61 electoral college votes. the democrats have held onto the senate seat up for grabs in nevada, vacated by the retiring harry reid who was the leader of the democrats who was the leader of the democrats in the senate, a veteran it meant there was no incumbent. it was up for grabs but cortes amassed mastoe has taken it for the democrats. they have not gained anything. one area mrs clinton has td anything. one area mrs clinton has to win tonight is nevada. clinton has to win tonight is nevada. we haven't yet heard from it. it was in the clinton column, leaning that way. the clinton column, leaning that way. it was in the clinton column, leaning that way. we can go to james cook in las vegas. what are you hearing, james? in terms of the results here,
at the moment is just 15% of precincts have reporting. hillary clinton with a slight edge at the moment. but the breaking news that caught hers mastoe has been elected to the senate, replacing harry reid, not a game for the democrats, who at this stage looked like losing the senate, the house of representatives and the presidency as well. if clinton wants td presidency as well. if clinton wants to win she will have to pull off an escape acts that would wow the crowds on the las vegas strip. it's looking increasingly difficult for her to do so. we'll see what it means for latinos, people said it would be the election of latinos and this would be the moment they stepped up and voted for hillary clinton. we are joined by leo, ape political activist, and maria, an organisation for getting the vote out. we should note the election of catherine cortez
mastoe is historic, the first latino ever elected to the us senate. part of our democracy has been seeing ourselves in elected officials. it ensures the policies benefiting latinos are enacted. donald trump has promised to build a giant wall along the mexican border. crackdown on immigration and the fellas crackdown on immigration and the port 11 million plus undocumented and illegal immigrants in the country. if he is president, what does that mean for latinos in the united states? the reality is latinos turned out to vote in historic numbers in this election. the work was only just beginning on november eight. there is already a wall in the southern border. what he talks about in his rhetoric, deporting 11 million people, isn't going to happen. we are here to stay, mobilise, and we and our kids will keep voting. this is the beginning of
a lot of work. there are fencing and walls at certain points, are fencing and walls at certain lila ina are fencing and walls at certain points, not one are fencing and walls at certain [eo eac are fencing and walls at certain points, not one all the way along. leo, the thing about the wall and the immigration policy, are we wrong td the immigration policy, are we wrong to try to judge the latino vote as a bloc, as a homogenous vote? i spoke td bloc, as a homogenous vote? i spoke to quite a lot of people that say, 1 came here legally, why shouldn't others come here illegally? the latino vote isn't a monolith. every single campaign has to sit down with latino voters across the country and talk about matters that matter to them. the polls show immigration isn't always the top issue, it's jobs, the economy, health care and education, making sure our children have a brighter future than our parents. every election and campaign needs to take that into account, we are not a monolithic group. wh donald trump becomes president, what do you think that means for communities who are growing? it's a growing demographic.
everybody said it was the demographic you have to win to win elections. is he proving us wrong? no, we are seeing history us wrong? no, we are seeing history in the making in their father. story in the making in their father. no, we are seeing history in the making in their father. the first ever latina woman elected to the united states senate. the conservatives and the koch brothers gave up on the race months ago. they aligned themselves with donald trump and lost in nevada. thank you both for talking to us. i have to say, there's not a great deal of celebration from latinos in this city if donald trump becomes president. it would be an extraordinary period for that demographic. 1 extraordinary period for that demographic. i think this is going td demographic. i think this is going to be, if he does win, and it looks like the path for hillary clinton's victory is incredibly narrow, walking along a precipice at the top of a mountain, this would be a defining feature of the
next four years, how he implements these pledges that he says he would put into place and which so many people regard as essentially unworkable. james cut in las vegas. probably the group that will be watching this most closely and trying to figure out what it means for them are people in the united states here not legally, because they could be the first targets of donald trump and his policies of trying to get them out of the country. we can go back to miami. i imagine that people down there in southern miami where you are, mostly the democratic stronghold, they always knew florida would be tight, but as they watch the rest of the country go towards donald trump, what are they making of this wave? it's not hillary clinton's, it's donald trump's wave sweeping america tonight. clinton's, it's donald trump's wave ef tor slater ia ollo al clinton's, it's donald trump's
wave sweeping america tonight. i don't think it was a surprise florida was going to be close. throughout the campaign both candidates made several stops here. because the polls were indicating in the final stretch that the two candidates were virtually neck and neck. i'm joined by two younger millennial voters. 1 met you at a donald trump rally in miami. it was about five days ago. thank you for coming to meet us again tonight. how do you feel at the fact donald trump has won the state? the fact donald trump has won the be chl the fact donald trump has won the state? i feel good about it. i didn't think it was a surprise. at his rallies you see a lot of people coming out. 1 his rallies you see a lot of people coming out. i originally saw him months ago, when it was between ben carson and ten -- ted cruz. 1 months ago, when it was between ben carson and ten -- ted cruz. i think the republican party had a good sense of confidence with donald trump. do you think some trump supporters were just not willing
to tell people out in the open that they supported donald trump? when i was in tampa bay over the weekend i met a young woman who voted for donald trump and she said she was ashamed to have voted for him, but she thought he was the lesser of two evils. i met you at a rally with thousands of supporters, but if you think some people didn't say they supported him, and is that what we are seeing? definitely. i would consider myself that way for the most part as well. as a millennial, people are pretty quick to say that donald trump isn't a good person. he's not the right choice. it's hard to depict what is the right choice to depict what is the right choice in this 1 can definitely cep in this election. 1 can definitely say people were afraid to admit it because of the harsh things he said about women and so on and so forth. earlier when you found out donald trump hadn't won florida, you were pretty upset. -- had won florida,
i'v pretty upset. -- had won florida, i've beg your pardon. ad won florida, i've beg your pardon. i have to stop there, we have favoured a result. top there, we have favoured a result. hopefully we'll come back to you later. -- we have another result. nevada has been called for hillary clinton giving her six more electoral college votes. she will be pleased but to be fair, it's too little, too late. it colours in the whole west coast, her short by 55, but it's really difficult. she now has to get a combination of any of the places where donald trump is ball the places where donald trump is still ahead. 55 is quite a lot to be sure to buy at this stage. even if she gets pennsylvania, she is sought by 35. that's mean some combination of all of these has to be in her tally. taking minnesota, still short by 25.
taking maine, the first district likely to go democrat, it will take to 22. she could take new hampshire, let's imagine, still short by 18. but she still needs two of the states that are left. michigan and wisconsin, michigan and arizona, or wisconsin and arizona. but that is looking really, really tough right now. all we've had in the last few moments is that the vada result, so it adds to her tally but doesn't change things. all these places are still battle grounds showing donald trump in the lead have to be turned around. in every remaining precinct she has to take the lead and then she could amass another 30 or 35 electoral college votes. but to ask for all those races to be wrong at this stage in the day is quite a big one.
it is indeed. we used to say that about donald trump's chances. how things have changed. in terms of the vote, almost 75% of the country's precincts have reported. 42 from 50 states that we have projected. mrs clinton on 51 million votes, mr trump on 52 million votes. i'm rounding up the figures. he's brought the 1 million ahead. supposing mrs clinton in the end was td supposing mrs clinton in the end was to win the public vote, and it's not clear that will happen, but mr trump wins the electoral college vote, for ej wins the electoral college vote, for a divided nation, that would be terrible. i would take a look at the vote in the year 2000, al gore and george bush, we faced similar situations before. it would be incumbent 06:14:55,1000 --> 06:14:58,153 on president trump in that scenario to communities
he alienate it in his campaign, hispanics, women, others he campaigned against at portions of the campaign. 1 women, others he campaigned against at portions of the campaign. i think it will take a long time to undo that damage and try to win trust of the population. there is a great divide between cities and rural areas. there sure is. you talked earlier about him being gay deal-breaker, somebody prepared to compromise. we have also heard accounts from somebody who, for example, said if he was elected president would sue the women who have accused him of sexually harassing them. vengeance was said td harassing them. vengeance was said to be a top priority of his in life. to be a top priority of his in life. do you think he's somebody who is prepared, if elected president, and the scenario changes when you get into the scenario changes when you get nckus the scenario changes when you get into the white house and the oval office and the responsibility of the president cloaks you. is he somebody, do you
think, who would reach out to people who voted for clinton, and the people who he specifically has alienate it with some of his rhetoric? it would be a humbling experience even to donald trump, no question about that. he's u trump, no question about that. he's on his way to becoming the next president of the united states. donald trump's ego is also important. he will want to go down as a very good president and somebody who got things done. maybe perhaps driven in part by ego and in part by the office, he could get something done. do i think he will sue those women? i don't think he will. one thing he learned about trump, he will listen to advisers. it came very late in the game, but when he saw a way to win, which is when the letter from director of the fbi john -- james comey came out, that's when he dropped
another $11 million in his campaign. he became disciplined when he realised he could win. i'm as shocked as anybody, but i at least have to hope he can do subbing positive for the country. first we need to say that it's not quite over yet. almost, i'm pessimistic about mrs clinton's chances in pennsylvania. ironically, she got more votes in philadelphia than obama did last time. and he had pretty much a clean sweep there. now we are getting a massive increase in votes from other places, and she might lose narrowly. in michigan and wisconsin we have the college towns. ann arbor, madison, they might help her. a larger point about trump, it's not so much about deal-making it's not so much about deal-making in the united his almost deeply embedded in his personality is that if somebody attacks you you k is that if somebody attacks you you hit them
back harder, because if you don't it's a sign of weakness. remember when we had the president of the philippines calling barack obama a son of a horse and he said even worse things about others. sometimes a president has two swallow hard with some of those things and not retaliate. it's difficult to imagine a foreign policy where your modus operandi is, if somebody hits you, you hit back harder, when you have delicate alliances to work with. that's where the choices of people that he will have, if he becomes president, that he will have four foreign policy positions, and if he goes for the people who have been closest to him, like michael flynn, who has clashed with almost everybody in foreign policy. rudy giuliani or chris kristi as attorney general. maybe newt gingrich as secretary of state. we are going to see some of these challenges. they are
polarising figures. but it's not like donald trump hid any of these tricks from the american public who are electing him. the public know what they got. it is not like we will find things out about the secret trump ego. my own breaking news is that donald trump so far tonight has not claimed the election has been rigged. that may surprise you, but we have had no complaints that the election has been rigged so far was dubbed throughout the campaign, there was much talk about how divided america is. as the results have been coming in, it has been pointed out how divided america is. as mr trump begins his presidency, although it is not over yet, there will be continued talk about it. let's go back to jeremy and get an idea of the divisions in the united states. we can look now at the actual votes and the exit polls and have a
portrait of how the country split when it came to deciding between these two candidates. let's first look at the split between men and women, straightforward. men tended td women, straightforward. men tended to go for donald trump. but when you ask women how they voted, it switches around. there is ej voted, it switches around. there is a good ten to 12% gap here. . there is a good ten to 12% gap here. it is dramatic and clear that trump and clinton divided the reactions of men and women. that is the first thing. let's take another way of looking at the population. here, we look at a full. i guess this is predictable, but still worth pointing out that there was a big lead for hillary clinton among the younger voters, where trump only got 40%. but if you move to over 45! , trump takes
the lead. so you see again, straight down the middle division between the two candidates. and here is the most toxic one, the division on ethnic lines. if you look at the far end, you see a huge advantage for hillary clinton among hispanic voters. there was the talk of building a wall and all that stuff. donald trump wasn't even trying to curry favour there. have a look at black voters. look at the lead that hillary clinton has, 80% over donald trump. barack obama's was greater for obvious reasons four years ago, but this is remarkable. only 8% of black voters went for trump. if trump has won, this is how he did it, by mobilising white voters. this is probably the most difficult territory of
all, a division between the two candidatess' supporters on ethnic lines. we have been getting reports that at the trump headquarters here in new york, obviously in an exuberant mood as these results come in, they have belact as these results come in, they have started chanting "mrs clinton, lock her up! " we heard that many times during the campaign itself, and if you wanted a symbol of a divided america shouting of your opponent, "lock her up", that would seem to be ej "lock her up", that would seem to be a potent symbol. speaking of divisions, new hampshire has yet to report, but norm, it seems very divided. it is still not clear where the vote is out in new hampshire. but if we are
talking about a contest where you may be able to find a path to victory with 271 or 272 electoral votes, that makes a big difference. for mrs clinton, the real downfall for her will be pennsylvania. the only votes that are out in large numbers are in the lel are out in large numbers are in the rural areas. she doesn't have a path to win if she loses pennsylvania. let's see if we can bring up this photo that has come in from the trump headquarters. it shows donald trump and mike pence on his right, watching the returns come in. 1 don't know if this is at the hotel, but i imagine it is and 1 don't know if this is at the hotel, but i imagine it is and i imagine he is starting to think about the victory speech he might be able to give at some point. he would only be human to
be thinking about that. it used to be that the electoral college had an odd number as its total, which meant that you couldn't have a tie. but in 1951, they gave three votes to washington, dc, which had not been included in the electoral college before, and that took it to an even number electoral college before, and that took it to an even number. that means, emily, that it is arithmetically possible that each could get 269. we now need an interesting turn of events to excite the night a bit! it has been so quiet that we were wondering what to do. mathematically, this is the way it could end in a tie. i have pulled up three states where the race is ball up three states where the race is still ongoing and you can see how tight they are - michigan, pennsylvania and minnesota. minnesota, she has a clear lead and will expect to take minnesota. pennsylvania, it is incredibly close. michigan, trump
has a 0. 9% lead. but imagine she takes all these electoral college votes, 46. e takes all these electoral college votes, 46. she is short by 55. remember which ones we have coloured in for her. member which ones we have coloured in for her. now she's by nine. new hampshire, neck and neck at the moment. she could take maine as well. she could take the first district, not the second. she could also take the second in nebraska. and then she is short by one. we gave her quite a lot of stuff there, which is definitely not in the bag. but at this point, she has
to take wisconsin or arizona to win, or he has to take those, and they are both short by one. 1 has to take those, and they are both short by one. i will leave the constitutional experts to explain to us the process once they are both on 269! if thanks for that, emily. if it is 269 and 269, the decision then goes to the house of representatives. but they don't vote as individuals, they vote as states, and each state has one vote. so the representatives will have to meet, save to decide how they vote. rhode island, a state rather smaller than california, also gets one vote. norm, the consequence of this is that if it does go to the house of representatives , that if it does go to the
house of representatives, donald trump is the president. not just that the republicans control the house of representatives , republicans control the house of representatives, and the democrats are disappointed here as well. they had hoped for double-digit gains and it looks like it will be the low single digits. but because the republicans have the advantage in smaller states, smaller high modern estates have a big advantage in the number of states they control than they do in the overall house of representatives. so donald trump would win under those circumstances and probably win the presidency. this is where senate control comes into play as well. the senate vote separately for the vice president, and they don't do it by state, they do it as individuals. so if the democrats had somehow managed, and there is a tiny chance that they could pull out a victory in the senate, and they got it to a point where they had a slim majority,
you could end up with a tim kaine vice presidency. this is fanciful and unlikely to happen and the democrats are unlikely to win that majority, but it is an interesting twist on american politics. the new work among you will have noticed that if the house votes state-by-state, that is 50 states, also an even number, by is 50 states, also an even number, so it is possible that the house could divide 257 so it is possible that the house could divide 25/ 25. what happens then? the speaker of the house becomes president for a period. you need an absolute number, and that has to be decided by march. it wouldn't happen that the speaker would become president because the senate would almost certainly choose ej senate would almost certainly choose a vice president and then on a vice president and then on inauguration day, january 20, the vice president would get inaugurated and he would, under the 25th amendment, become the acting so it is also possible that the republican house could look at donald trump and say,
we would rather have mike pence. my brain is getting tired. it is 12. 45 in the morning in new york and i am not sure how much bandwidth my brain has, but that is why we have norm here, so he can fill us in. let's go td here, so he can fill us in. let's go to the clinton campaign headquarters and find out what is happening now rather than in some hypothetical future. kim ghattas, it sounds incredibly quiet at clinton hq. it is very quiet. you are hearing the sound of the big screens and the american networks and their coverage of the event. but the crowd has thinned out. people are sitting on the floor. we have seen the people crying and hugging. they cannot believe that this is happening. they were expecting to celebrate a victory. they were expecting to celebrate the
first woman president of the united states and it is not done yet, but as you have been saying, the path is looking very difficult for hillary clinton. and there is a lot of head scratching going on. there will be a lot of questions being asked even if she gets a narrow victory about how they underestimated the mood in the country to this extent. how did they miss this wave of trump support? 1 have been travelling with them for the last few months, and of course, you always run the risk of being spun by campaign aides, but they were genuinely sounding upbeat. they were not trying to manage expectations, even though they had said for the last few weeks that the polls would tighten. they said yesterday that this was looking good. and it wasn't just putting on ej good. and it wasn't just putting on a brave face. t wasn't just putting on a brave face. putting on a brave face is what they are doing tonight. e face is what they are doing tonight. although we have not heard from any clinton aides over the last four hours as they try to
digest what they have seen unfold in front of them. 1 they have seen unfold in front of them. i was speaking to a senior clinton aide a few months ago after she had won the nomination. 1 clinton aide a few months ago after she had won the nomination. i said, how do you feel about this? and this person did say he was worried about the third and fourth party vote, that this would dilutes some of the support for clinton or take votes away from her. we have seen that in some places. but that person did say there was a lot of anger out there. perhaps this was not an understanding that was shared by enough people within the clinton campaign, because they also underestimated the bernie sanders movement. they didn't see that coming in the primary season. they did not expect to have such a difficult primary race against a senator from vermont who was previously barely known. but he tapped into that same anger, but on the left. now we are hearing
from some people close to the campaign, but not from inside the campaign. they are putting a brave face on this. they are trying to see whether it is still possible for her to win. r it is still possible for her to win. ken salazar, the head of the transition team, spoke to an american newspaper and said it is not over yet. but what we are seeing unfold is astonishing. just to pick up on that third party vote, as kim says, it hasn't been huge in many states, but importantly, it looks like it has been millennials who have been voting for those third party candidates, for the libertarian and they imagine for the green party candidate, the same people who were drawn to bernie sanders and who have said all along that they were not excited by hillary clinton's candidacy. and in critical states, it could be that in voting
for third-party candidates, they have deprived hillary clinton of those states. ben, millennials were barack obama's base. they propel him to victory in 2008. what happened to that vote? it seems like barack obama is good at getting barack obama elected, but he is not good at getting other democrats elected. let me first apologise on behalf of my demographic. it seems they made a similar mistake to the ones voters made in ralph nader in 2000, who took what could have been al gore's voters in 2000. hillary clinton embraced many of bernie sanders' policies during the run-up to the election, somebody who would fight for the middle-class, make college affordable , for the middle-class, make college affordable, make sure there are good
paying jobs for all americans, 1 think hillary clinton was that candidate, but it looks like the millennial numbers were soft tonight and a view to many of them will have gone to voters. candidates. or not voted at all. when campaigns depend on people who tend not to vote, you tend to run into trouble. you also run into trouble when you rely on somebody else's coalition. obama's coalition was there to elect obama. one thing you heard democrats say in the off year elections when the president wasn't up for candidature but the senate was, they felt disappointed that they couldn't get the obama machine mobilised. they didn't have a lot of practice test run in the coalition. frankly, it was on hillary clinton to put together her own coalition angie should have recognised that. the democratic party under
obama across the united states has been decimated. losing more than 800 largest letters across local offices and losing governorships. -- 800 legislators. they have the least number of representatives since the second world war. president obama has not left the democratic party at ej has not left the democratic party at a nationwide level in great shape. his numbers were so high, his favourable numbers at a time when both candidates for president were so both candidates for president were so upside down and so high, their unfavourable is, with his favourable numbers they thought he might be able to bring it in. that's what we were looking at yesterday and earlier today, we were thinking hillary clinton was going to do very well in part thanks to president obama. it turned out it wasn't translatable. a lot of people who voted for obama in 2008, probably voted for trump today. there might be a certain
percentage that did, but i think what happened tonight is that for the republican party, this is more of a short-term bet. if donald trump was voted for with older white voters, as the country becomes more diverse every single year, the people who turned out to vote for donald trump were simply a different electorate at the end of the day, and you could still see hillary clinton win the popular vote. with fewer african-americans and young voters as a share of the vote, it is some of the demographic that will be voting for this final election cycles that might have elected donald trump. we keep on hearing that because the republican party, with tomography against it and it being an increasingly white party, that it's a party in decline. but we sit here tonight and the republican party could be heading to retake the white house. it has already retaken the house
and will probably retain the senate. as he went into tonight it controls 31 out of 50 gubernatorial offices throughout the state. if that declines, 1 throughout the state. if that declines, i could name a list of centre-right parties in europe who would regard it as success beyond their dreams. one thing i think will be troubling for democrats, you are right first in one sense, looking at ej right first in one sense, looking at a state like lowa, there were people who voted obama in 2012 who in fact voted donald trump. we will find in pennsylvania, michigan, counties that went strongly for him who went for trump. but we also know that in north carolina, for example, a sizeable number of votes were suppressed by the laws and the way suppressed by the laws and the way in which they handled the election sites and precincts and the voter now we are going to have
a republican party that as a national party has a struggle building a larger majority but will have a supreme court that will allow very tough voter id laws. it will have a party that is going to find ell have a party that is going to find all kinds of ways to make it difficult for democrats to get their voters out and make them work. what happened to democrats, every time you win the white house, you tend to lose in congress the next time around and lose in the mid-term elections, which will make 2018 very interesting. but republicans might find ways to hold on. we knew this was the whole hardest cycle for the republicans to hold this time. with the lead of paul ryan comedy even increase next time. hold on, money talks. we don't have commercials on the bbc, but we keep an eye on the financial markets. it's coming up to
six minutes to one o'clock here in new york, east coast time. very soon the european markets will open, followed by the london markets. we can go to the bbc's north american business correspondent, michelle fleury. what's the latest from the markets? about the fact that investors, the financial markets, they were hoping for a hillary clinton win, but as the prospects for donald trump have brightened you have seen the markets turned sour. it's a case, much like brexit, investors are caught wrong-footed. if you look at the dow futures, the 500 futures, they are trading down around 4% lower. the mexican peso, has hit all-time lows. all this in reaction to what is now looks like increased prospects for a donald trump presidency. if the senate and the house
of representatives, that's ej the house of representatives, that's a clean sweep and it's also something the markets are concerned about. they like the idea of a divided government, in part because it maintains a status quo, it's harder to get big changes through. that's something investors will be anxious about, the uncertainty this brings. in particular what it will mean for global trade, for example. thank you, michelle. the mexican peso hitting a record low against the dollar at the prospect of a trump administration. the ftse 100, the major british benchmark of the stock exchange, its future is predicted to be down 4%. nearly all the major stock markets. the dax and cac, i think they will fall when they open in just over an hour. what are they making about
it in china? let's get more global reaction. one of the country's donald trump had support in was china. despite the fact donald trump has said china is ej fact donald trump has said china is a currency manipulator, actually he gets pretty high approval ratings there. johnson with is in beijing. what are they making of this in china today? -- john sutcliffe is in beijing. if you look at the state media election coverage, the chinese see themselves as stuck between a rock and a hard place. there is no love lost for hillary clinton here, she is seen as the architect of the american visit to asia which was seen by many in china as a policy of containment. we know she has long been critical of the chinese human rights record, for example. she's a known quantity, and it's not
a quantity they particularly like. there has been a lot of interest in donald trump. there's a certain amount of recognition now for him among the chinese public. again the political elite are far from certain. certainly some of his more strident comments on international trade, bashing china probably harder than any other american presidential candidate has over things like currency manipulation, trade protection and threatening to put tariffs on goods, some of that they might be able to dismiss as rhetoric ahead of an election. but i think it's the sense that he's an unknown quantity that worries many. don't forget the chinese leadership craves stability beyond anything else. they know that their futures are linked america's prosperity. there is a sense that given that, hillary clinton is the devil
they know, if you like. 1 clinton is the devil they know, if you like. i think there will be a large amount of nervousness in the elite political circles as a result of a trump presidency, if it is confirmed today. john sudworth in beijing. i can go to moscow, a country where donald trump has an 82% approval rating. sarah, this will go down well in the kremlin. think it will. officially speaking president putin has been asked about who he would prefer to see as president and officially he said he would work with anybody who would work with russia. 1 would work with anybody who would work with russia. i think the odds are that he is hoping president trump would be a far easier president to work with than clinton. clinton is a known quantity here, she is seen as a hawk, as anti-russia. i think putin has had a personally difficult relationship with her in the past. as for trump, there has been something of a bromance between the two men
over the past couple of years. some very leu the past couple of years. some very warm words from donald trump, talking about putin as a man he thinks he can work with, admiring him as a strong leader. that's something russia will welcome. there is a real problem in relations between the united states and russia at the moment and there is the potential that trump in the presidency could heal the rift somewhat. it's worth pointing out that president obama himself is heading off to europe to meet with angela merkel and other leaders next week. those will be very interesting meetings. you feel they might want td meetings. you feel they might want to meet donald trump instead, because they don't know him at all. that's part of the problem. no world leader, the british, the germans, perhaps with the exception of the russians, know much about. it's coming up to lam on wednesday morning in times square. the pictures outside in
the heart of manhattan. the eyes of the world are on the results of the american election as they come in. people are gathering they come in. people are gathering in times square. ople are gathering in times square. of course, at the clinton headquarters over on the west side not far from here, very subdued, as you can see. people are very quiet. we saw tears earlier on. this is not the night they had hoped it would be. over at the donald trump headquarters, although he has not yet won, they are now pretty much expecting him to do so. he is 26 votes short of the majority. that is the number he needs in the electoral college. we await an four new hampshire where it is neck and neck. pennsylvania, he is a little bit ahead.