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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  December 23, 2016 8:30am-9:01am GMT

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this is business live from bbc news, with aaron heslehurst and maryam moshiri. as 2016 draws to a close, we'll look back on a year which featured two events that will shape the global economy for decades to come. welcome to business live: review 2016. this year saw the uk take the momentous decision to leave the european union. we'll take a look at what lies in store in the next 12 months. defying all the odds! he did it! billionaire businessman donald trump wins the race for the white house. he's made some bold announcements, but was it all talk and no action? and it's been a turbulent yearfor global markets. oil prices hit a historic low, but there's light at the end of the tunnel, following a landmark deal between members of the opec cartel.
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and... exploding phones, driverless cars and virtual reality. it's been an eventful twelve months in the the world of tech, but what can we look forward to in 2017? we'll speak to our resident gadget guru rory—cellan jones. welcome to a very special edition of business live. this year saw two of the biggest political results of the decade as the recent trend towards globalisation took a step back. there are now dark clouds of uncertainty hanging over two of the world's biggest economies — europe and the united states. let's start by looking back at what happened following the uk's momentous decision to leave the european union. tonight at 10 — the voters decide that, after four decades, it is time for britain to leave the european union. i don't think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country
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to its next destination. across asia today, we have seen shares fall on the major markets like japan's nikkei, down more than 7%. look what happened, it tumbled down to levels we have not seen since the 1980s. many people in the financial markets caught, perhaps, unawares by this decision. brexit means brexit, and we are going to make a success of it. it is a victory against the big merchant banks, against the big business and against big politics. the end of the day, jamie dimon, lloyd blankfein, you want to take your troops from jp morgan and goldman sachs to paris, to the boulevard, have a lovely holiday. i'll give you a clue, guys — you'll be back. i'm joined by our economics editor, kamal ahmed. we saw brexit back in the summer. looking ahead to 2017, where do we
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stand in terms of uk negotiations? everything looks so uncertain. the phoney war will come to an end, britain voted to leave the european union injaw and the practicalities of that will begin next year. —— in june. the british government wants to spark article 50 which starts the process of exit. by the end of march. that is a two year process so that should be completed, we think, by 2019. there are tensions on both sides. in britain, there are tensions between those who want what is cold a hard brexit, fully out of the single market and the customs union, able to sign trade deals around the world itself, with no reference to the european union. and those that want a softer brexit, still having preferential access to the single market, possibly still in the single market, possibly still in the customs union. that is tension on one side. on the european side,
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the 27 other member states, there are tensions between those who want to ensure britain does not get a better deal by going out of the european union, politically unpalatable as that is, and britain is the second largest economy in europe. they do not want to set up trade barriers so the european economy suffers by losing the british market. london, one of the leading globalfinancial british market. london, one of the leading global financial centres and europe needs the city to front some businesses. indeed. let's bring up the board. i wa nt to indeed. let's bring up the board. i want to talk about the ftse and the pound. this is how they have ended as of december 20. the ftse nearly 13% and the sterling down 16%, we we re 13% and the sterling down 16%, we were expecting that. if they vote for brexit happens, we would see that pound punch. the judgment was investors would think assets in the uk would be less valuable in the future so their money would be
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better employed on the continent and frankly in america. and so the pound has fallen in value. what is interesting and more surprising is how good equities have been and the markets. in a way, although brexit is incredibly important politically and economically, the fundamentals have not changed that much yet. and so have not changed that much yet. and so equities remain very quite —— attracted because of the high bloke interest—rate and loose monetary policy, no signal yet from britain, the central bank in the uk and europe that interest rates will rise $0011 europe that interest rates will rise soon and quickly. so the equities run has been very powerful, a lot of those in the ftse, in the london markets, they are global companies. their profits are in dollars so as sterling falls... their profits have gone upwards. so there is a situation where those equities are doing rather well and you have a
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clash. equities positive, sterling has had a tough three months. the european project, how is it looking going into 2017? brexit is important but i would not suggest it is the most important thing in europe in 2017. you have elections in the netherlands and in france and in germany. and each of those elections will be a big test about the kind of europe that the voters in europe want. a reformed europe, high levels of unemployment, problems with growth. what type of europe will people who support the project, windows elections, or will people who want to rip up the project and cause more tension in europe and possibly split up the eu, will they wind? it will be a fascinating year. but the cards on the table, could we see a european shock like we have seen brexit and the election of donald trump? we need to be careful, the pull suggests not, but at the end of
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2017, what might be described as the establishment parties have put themselves back at the centre of europe —— the pulls. the european project is incredibly important european government and at the end of 2017, it is suggested they will look more victorious than knows what that one to split up the eu. one thing we learned this year it was do not listen to the pollsters! happy new year! the uk's decision to leave the european union certainly surprised global markets, but investors didn't need to wait long before the next major upset. in the united states, the billionaire businessman donald trump swept to power in one of the most divisive political campaigns in living memory. let's look back at some of the highlights. right now, 92 million americans are on the sideline, outside of the workforce. they're not a part of our economy. it's a silent nation ofjobless americans. donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis.
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he said back in 2006, gee, i hope it does collapse because then i can go in and buy some and make some money. well, it did collapse. that's called business. 9 million people... we will build the wall, 100%, and mexico will be paying for the wall! just imagine how many more automobile jobs will be lost if the tpp is actually approved. it will be catastrophic. we can't continue to allow china to rape our country. and that's what they're doing. donaldj trump, billionaire property developer with no previous experience of public office, is the 45th president of the united states. companies are not going to leave the united states any more without consequences. it's not going to happen. i'll tell you right now. 0ur number—one priority
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is going to be the economy, get back to 3% to 4% growth, we think that is very sustainable, and focus on things for the american worker. that is absolutely our priority. nice thunderous music. i love the drama! i love the drama! pippa malmgren is a former white house advisor and she joins us in the studio now. you did it! you did it! you picked brexit and trump. yes, it was a big year! can you do the lottery numbers? i know you want to talk about the economic and trump's vision. this is what we have been hearing, is the tea m what we have been hearing, is the team that he's building, what do you make of it? the last was peter
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navarro who wrote one of his box, death by china. yes, exactly, he is picking people with very different points of view. they are going to have a cabinet that argues which might not be a bad thing, they will have debates about the right direction to go. second thing, the establishment is very upset about these new people because they are not. and that was the point. the electorate said, i want the establishment out and something new that looks after my interests more. that is what i think they are going to deliver. someone described this as bonfire of the agencies! trump has been brought into literally burn the house down and start again, reconstruct this thing. and washington was overgrown in many ways. will there be accidents along the way? every president makes m ista kes the way? every president makes mistakes and we will see those, certainly. but the upside may be
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greater than people expect. just because they do not like him personally, the markets were like his policies. we have seen that with the dell. the wild card is trade policy and whether that will harm growth in the future. what is your ta ke growth in the future. what is your take on that? again, i do not know, these are my personal views, i think that there is a lot of bluster about trade policy. but in the end, what they want to do is sell more american birds, have better quality imports. so the end goal is to have trade. —— american goods. they will not use that word, we will have less talk about free trade, does it mean something profoundly different? maybe not. you cannot cede the us as an island, it has got to trade in the world. to be fair, less than 1096 of us gdp depends on exports are as
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a nation, we are incredibly lucky. we can be an engine even if the rest of the world is not going well, trade is as small part of our economy compared to most others so thatis economy compared to most others so that is something to keep in mind. thank you very much indeed. happy new year. still to come: exploding phones, driverless cars and virtual—reality gaming. it's been an eventful 12 months in the world of tech, but what can we look forward to in 2017? we'll speak to our resident gadget guru rory—cellan jones. you're with business live from bbc news. throughout the show, we've been hearing about how the events of 2016 are set to the shape the business landscape for years to come. yes, 2017 is set to be a busy year. here's the bbc‘s theo leggett with a timeline of key events in the next 12 months. in january, president—elect donald trump takes the reigns in the white house, and onlookers will be keen to see if he follows through with his plan to restrict trade and inject hundreds of billions of dollars
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into the us economy. fast—forward a couple of months and we'll see the first big development in the brexit story. the uk prime minister says she'll trigger article 50 by the end of the march. this is when britain can start formal negotiations with the european union. and we'll begin to see what the new relationship could look like in years to come. this is, of course, crucial to the future of the eu project. france is one other country which will be paying close attention. in april, it'll hold the first round of its presidential election. the far—right candidate marine le pen is riding high on a wave of anti—establishment politics which is currently sweeping the globe. the leader of the front national is a staunch eurosceptic, so there could be some further bad news for brussels if she's voted into power. in germany, it's a similar picture. recent events have seen chancellor angela merkel come under fire for her open—door migrant policy. the public could go to the polls as early as august 27th. the german leader has seen a steady
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decline in her popularity ratings recently. if 2016 is anything to go by, the next 12 months could be very interesting indeed. let's take a look at how markets have fared over the course of the year, starting with stocks in europe. yes, there you can see sterling down against the dollar by 16% as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the brexit vote. the ftse gained around 13% this year. this is until december 20. a quick look at us stocks now — the dow jones rose around 15% this year. us markets actually broke all records following the us election. investors are perhaps anticipating donald trump will follow through with his $1 trillion spending plan and this could provide a boost to american companies. and they need it right now. borrow
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and build, but maybe they don't need to borrow? a lot of investors will throw money into construction programmes. you are watching the review of 2016 on business live. the events of the past 12 months have made for a turbulent year in global markets. at the turn of the year, the price of oil was already at its lowest point for a decade — this had investors wondering whether the market could head any lower. injanuary, iran returned to international markets following the lifting of western sanctions and crude fell below $28 dollars per barrel — but this proved to be short lived. in the first half of the year, the market rallied as some of that over—supply left the market. and in september some of the world's leading oil producing nations managed to reach a landmark agreement. for the first time in over 8 years, members of the 0pec oil cartel struck a deal to limit production. initially the market had its doubts
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that the deal would hold, but after iran and saudi arabia agreed to resolve their differences, the oil price surged once more. iain reid is a senior oil and gas equity analyst at the investment bank macquarie. a good ozzie institution. that is the key, they have all agreed, but will they stick to that? yes, compliance is always the key. as you say, they have not done it for a while. what encourages the market is that the core countries of 0pec, the gulf countries, saudi arabia, kuwait, uae, they make over half of it and they really have to comply, given their budget constraints. we think most of the rest of the countries will comply to some degree. some are tempted by the
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slightly higher oil price, to increase supply and make more money. it has been hard going for countries in south america, some african countries? yes, libya and nigeria are coming out of a pretty depressed position anyway. they will be allowed to increase. there will be some choosing, but there will be a lot of compliance, i think. we finally saw that announcement, we have been talking about it for days and weeks in the lead up, they have made this agreement. but they cut at record levels. russia was producing more than 11 million a day, something like that. does it really make a big difference? well, demand is also increasing. lower prices means it is cheaper. that demand growth has been good. how long do think that will last, now prices are rising? unless there is a recession in the west, i think there will be a decent amount of growth, which will increase the wiggle room some of the country's health. the us is also producing quite a lot of the world
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us producing quite a lot of the world us oil. the worry is that with higher prices they will produce even more. the americans? fracking? they will come into it, and make money. a lot of them shut production when the prices got too low, but they can switch it on pretty quickly? there isa switch it on pretty quickly? there is a finite limit to that, to be honest. with a bit of compliance and demand growth, i think the oil price will reach $60. next year? yes, it is $55 now. look at the chart, brent crude is up 46% in 2016. predictions for 2017? over $60. but not the $100 mark that we have seen before? not u nless mark that we have seen before? not unless there is a cataclysm, but don't rule that out. but we're not forecasting that. a nice smooth path up forecasting that. a nice smooth path up to 70. we will put you back on
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next year to see if you are right! in a moment, we'll be talking tech with our gadget guru rory—cellan jones. he is taking photos and he will put it on social media. we are going to ta ke it on social media. we are going to take a look at the year in social. these are daft people in our office playing it! jay says, "majorly disappointed. it changed my life for a week and then, poof, it was gone." he said it was the best
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out of this year. a viewer in scotland says "no, i would never use a driverless taxi or any driverless road vehicle." mutala in india, "i would be scared to sit in one in india because it might just malfunction." i tweeted this about five o'clock this morning and had nothing but short, sharp, shrift, responses from viewers about this one. has been a very interesting year.
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2016 has been an eventful year in the world of tech. as you've just seen, driverless taxis picked up passengers for the very first time. and the war between samsung and apple reached explosive new heights. i see what they have done! we're joined by our technology correspondent rory—cellan jones. you see that picture? is this the future? we said that 2016 was going to be the year of virtual reality. we saw a lot of launchers. i don't think we have seen mass take—up. what we are now seeing is the emergence of cheaper forms. this what we are now seeing is the emergence of cheaperforms. this is an example, a cheap headset into which you put a mobile phone. much easier to get to grips with. not as good as things like oculus rift. what does it do? why are you doing? you are being transported new worlds. i like the world i am living
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in! good question, but my experience, the first time somebody does this, i did it with family members, an ageing parent the other day, they are quite excited by it. my day, they are quite excited by it. my question mark is whether this will last. the first experience is great and then you do begin to say, yes, what is it for? it is fun now, but they have to apply to something? something constructive? we are seeing augmented reality, putting virtual object in the real world, the great example was pokemon go, wandering around with phones, catching pikachu. microsoft has a thing that takes virtual objects of a step into the real world. it has a business application for that. voice control? aaron, be quiet. ok,
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google. it works! happy to help... be quiet for one moment. who is alan haselhurst? according to wikipedia, he isa haselhurst? according to wikipedia, he is a bbc world television presenter... it got it! this is an intelligent assistant. it offers questions like how old is he? we will not go on to that. we celebrated our 70th birthday this year. we have already seen this year the amazon echo, the voice control speaker taking off. you have a picture of that. and google home. voice becoming the new interface. this is a google mobile phone, using the smart assistant. you also have siri in apple devices and cortana in
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microsoft. it knows when i ask who alan haselhurst is, a good follow—up question, how old is he? who would buy these things? they are buying them. these voice controlled speakers are out there. it's not so much that these are products people are going to buy, they are out there. they are in the environment, voice control is becoming a thing. this is stuff, when we were younger, we would watch science fiction films, they would be on a spaceship, talking to alexa or whatever? what amazes me is how blase we are about it. in star trek there were devices where you could speak in one language and it would come out in another. we got back! -- we got that! what about driverless cars? another. we got back! -- we got that! what about driverless cars7m all feeds into the same theme, more intelligence being built into devices, principally cars. we have
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come an awful long way. we are expecting a lot more demos of that kind at the ces show in las vegas. that knowledge leads us into... about 110 seconds left, into the internet of things? yes, a bunch of devices, everything connected to the internet. that is a smart doorbell with a camera. it will identify who has come to the door and you can let them in through smartphone. smart lighting, that you can control through the mobile phone. drones. you said you wanted one before i came on. a lot more in the sky. rory turns on his christmas tree lights through his phone. hey, siri, to the christmas lights on. we love you, in the non—biblical sense, thanks for joining us. see you in the new year. for most of us, storm barbara will
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just be a lot of wind and some rain. for the far north—west of scotland, thatis for the far north—west of scotland, that is where it will be severe. gales could hit 80 or 90 mph. we are used to big storms across this part of the world. even for the north of scotland, 90 miles an hour is pretty nasty. an amber warning from the met office. be prepared and expect some disruption. in fact, there could be disruption. in fact, there could be disruption in other parts of the country as well, even further south. the storms up there, way up there, but we are feeling effects as far south as other western of the uk. this is a band of rain that pills into barbara. you can see the really bad gales in the north. regular gale force winds across the western areas, 50 or 60, maybe 70 mph gusts that we get in the winter. the last
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place to get the wind and rain will be east anglia. if you watch the clock, it is not until after dark when it pushes through. then the sky clears across the south. the wind will die down a little bit. the north will continue to be getting strong wind. then there is colder aircoming in behind strong wind. then there is colder air coming in behind barbara, once it pushes away. so, here is the storm early on christmas eve. still gale force winds to the south, where the isobars are tightly packed is where we get the rush of wind. the wind raging in the north, hill snow, showers, hail and thunder possible across parts of scotland. very quickly, the weather improves as you head south. if you are heading southwards during christmas eve, the weather will improve. much less wind and even some sunshine. a nice christmas eve for many across the south. christmas eve evening, into christmas, the weather starts to go downhill. another nasty area of low pressure heading our way. that area is also going to send a lot of mild
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air in ourdirection. is also going to send a lot of mild air in our direction. this is what it looks like. robin ince barbara. this is the next low, a lot of isobars. the wind will be going round and round the weather system. nasty, if not storm force in the north. exceptionally mild, 13 in the northern scotland, maybe 15 in the south. later on christmas day, there could be some northern hill snow. this is bbc news. the headlines at 9:00: two men are arrested in germany — on suspicion of planning to attack a shopping centre — as the hunt continues for the man behind the terror attack on a christmas market. in australia, police say they've foiled a terror attack planned for melbourne on christmas day. another serious prison disturbance, as 60 inmates take over a wing of hmp swaleside. one of the world's biggest banks — deutsche bank — agrees to pay over seven billion dollars in a deal with the us
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authorities over its role in the financial crisis. and in the next hour, we'll tell you what to expect when storm barbara hits the uk. storm barbara battering the north today, but the effect will be felt a little bit further south, too. stay tuned for the forecasts. and as well as the weather, the details on the travel disruption
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