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tv   HAR Dtalk  BBC News  January 6, 2017 4:30am-5:01am GMT

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doubt russian cyber attacks tried to influence last year's race for the white house. russia denies ordering the hacking of democratic party emails and the production of fake news. donald trump, who's been unconvinced so far, will be given a briefing on friday. two people have been killed and least five wounded by a car bomb in the turkish resort of izmir, outside the city's courthouse. two attackers were shot dead by police and a third is said to be on the run. police suspect a bigger attack was planned. prosecutors in the us city of chicago have charged four people with hate crimes over a video live—streamed on facebook, in which a bound and gagged man was tortured. police believe the victim, who's described as mentally disabled, may have been kidnapped for up to 48 hours before the attack. let's have a quick look at some of the front pages of the morning's papers. the ft says top spies in the us are on a collision course with president—elect donald trump, two weeks before his inauguration.
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it's after they rejected his dismissal of their findings, that russia interfered in the recent election. the metro pays tribute to the sex assault campaigner and rape survivorjill sawa rd, who's died at the age of 51. the paper calls her the "bravest of the brave". the mail also pays tribute to her, but leads on a story that civil servants working on brexit have asked for a pay rise due to "unsustainable" pressure. the i investigates new homes being built on flood plains, saying it's found that 1,200 properties have been built in what it calls "danger areas". the telegraph's top story is the admission by the bank of england's chief economist that it's warnings of an economic downturn in the wake of the brexit vote, were wrong. the times also leads on optimism over the british economy, and news that theresa may will visit donald trump next month. it seems her two most trusted aides
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have been on a secret mission to build bridges. and the express leads on the six—day run of highs of the ftse 100. now on hardtalk, stephen sackur speaks to bassma kodmani about the syrian conflict. welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. after six years of terrible bloodshed, could 2017 dramatically shift the dynamic of the syria conflict? change is in the air. aleppo has fallen to the assad regime, and a ceasefire deal brokered by russia and turkey is just about folding. —— holding. moscow's dominant role in the diplomatic endgame is now undisputed, with ankara playing a pivotal role as well. my guest is bassma kodmani of the negotiating team of the syrian opposition. is it time for the moderate rebels to accept their de facto defeat? bassma kodmani, in paris, welcome to hardtalk. hello, stephen. thank you.
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well, it's a pleasure to have you on the programme. let me start with a question that comes directly from the new year. do you see 2017 bringing with it better prospects for an end to the conflict in syria than we have seen at any time in the previous, almost, six years? i do, carefully optimistic, but i do. i do hope, and we are working towards making 2017 the end of the disaster of the tragedy and the beginning of a political transition. that is what we are hoping for and the coming weeks will tell us whether we are moving in that direction but there is certainly a turning point and certainly something to build on at the moment with the new players that have asserted themselves, and i think there is space for diplomacy now if the signals
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coming out from moscow and from turkey as well as, very carefully, from tehran, if these signals are sincere, then we have some hope for a political settlement, yes. i want to talk about those key players and their signals in a minute, butjust taking up your phrase about a turning point, would it be fair to say that the defeat of the anti—assad forces in aleppo was a fundamental turning point? certainly. the military confrontation has turned to the advantage of the assad regime. why? simply because it had the full and massive support of russian air force on one hand and pro—iranian militia, sectarian militias on the ground as ground forces. very little was done by assad's forces, it was by one key regional power and one key international
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power, so it was obvious the outcome was not going to be in favour of the opposition. but one needs to look back five years ago 01’ even six years ago when the uprising started. those who rose up against assad had no arms, no military means at all, so we are looking at a confrontation that is ending militarily, but the ingredients for a conflict and the confrontation is still there. if we are going to build on the military balance of forces, i don't think we will go very far in either defeating terrorism in syria or in ending the conflict and having a satisfactory political transition. the people of syria and goodness knows that they have suffered so much,
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they have seen well over 300,000 of their people killed, they have seen 12 million and more displaced including 5 million who have left the country altogether. with that in mind, is this the right time for you in the so—called moderate anti—assad opposition who have been aligned with the united states and the saudis in particular, would it be the right time to acknowledge that you have lost out here? you wanted assad to go and those who have prevailed, the russians in particular and the iranians as well, they are the people who are insistent that assad need not and will not go? to be fair to the opposition, it has sought support from democratic countries, it has received very little support and obviously the assad regime has received massive support. russia has decided syria would be the place where it would signal its international power, stature and military might. so we have seen it
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happen on our territory. it is not because we chose to align ourselves with this or that party. we as syrians are asking for dignity, rights, freedom and security and the right to life today for every syrian, and for that to happen, we will be working with any country serious about organising and facilitating a political transition. we have tried it with assad himself directly for ten years, then the population rose against assad for six years. did not receive any concession, none whatsoever. we look to all the powers in this world and if russia is serious about brokering a settlement in syria, it will find a partner among the moderate opposition, both military and political. these are people who the moderate political opposition is very clear about. the state needs to remain. there has to be continuity of governance, we need to restore security to syria because we know the international community is worried about international
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terrorism coming out of syria. if i may, let me read between the lines. you acknowledge the russians are driving the process, no question. the americans with 0bama in his final days as president, with donald trump singing a very different tune, the americans aren't really in this game at the moment and as far as you're concerned, you are now ready, are you, to undertake the peace negotiations the russians want, to be, they say, hosted in astana, kazakhstan, with the turks and the iranians playing key roles with no sign of the americans? are you with your team in the high negotiations council of the opposition prepared
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to participate in that process? look, i believe if these talks were to take place in astana or geneva or any other place, if they are placed under the terms of reference, if the terms for the talks are clear, if they refer to un resolutions which russia has voted for, there is no problem in participating in such a process. russia is brokering a cessation of hostilities on the ground. if this holds, the parties will be ready to go whether they are military or political. what we would like to see is certainly the new us administration step in and take some responsibility in brokering this political arrangement. we have russia telling us it is serious about political settlement. we have turkey playing a positive role but so far we have not had a positive role from iran. let us admit that iran has been the key spoiler. sectarian militias on the ground
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are our key problem today in syria. they are fuelling jihadis on the opposition side. what we need as a priority is a coalition of countries, and the trump administration should be part of that, to push out those sectarian militias who are poisoning the ground inside syria. i will push you on this a little bit. you can say what should happen and what you would like to happen, but let's deal with reality, what is happening. the us is not playing a role and the un, frankly, has been sidetracked as well. the russians are dominating the diplomacy right now, and i want a simple yes or no answer. are you prepared to go to peace talks that are brokered and controlled by russia? the russians, who don't see a reason to insist that assad be removed from power. are you prepared to undertake and participate in those talks under russian auspices? the russians are referring to the un resolutions.
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if that is clearly the case, there is no problem in participating. the opposition can go. what i'm saying is the trump administration, the us congress, are clearly coming out against iranian behaviour across the middle east because it has really destabilised the region. that is where we can expect the trump administration will play a role in pressuring iran to limit its presence across the region. it's iraq, syria, lebanon, yemen, everywhere in the region, and we have a real problem there with the shia militias on the ground. we cannot get rid of sunni jihadis whether it is daesh, al nusra, radical groups, if we have this poisonous presence of shia militias on the side of the regime. this is where iran needs to come to terms
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with what needs to happen on the ground in order for syria to see a peaceful settlement. on one point of detail, yesterday a coalition of 12 or so different anti—assad forces on the ground said they were going to reject any further diplomacy under the russian—astana tent because of what they described as systematic violations of the ceasefire agreement by assad forces on the ground. is that your position or are you prepared to say that the ceasefire is holding in a satisfactory way? unfortunately the ceasefire is not holding. these groups are the ones who signed with russia, and russia signed on behalf of the regime, an agreement for cessation of hostilities. the groups abided by the ceasefire and the syrian regime is notabiding.
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what the groups are asking is for russia to get the assad regime to behave, to comply and enforce the cessation of hostilities. if it is credible, a political negotiation can happen. these groups are willing to go to astana, they signed, they said they were going, and now we see the other side is not respecting any of that. we need russia to put pressure needed, and it can do so, on iran as well as the syrian regime if it wants a political settlement. i personally believe that russia today has an interest in finding an exit strategy through a political settlement. i would expect it will do so. we have spoken a lot about the russians in this interview. have you and other negotiators who have aimed your efforts mostly at the un, in geneva, have you reached out privately or maybe covertly with key russian officials? through the united nations
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we have contacts with everyone involved in this crisis. with respect, i don't mean through the un track. the financial times reported last month that some moderate leaders had covert and secret talks with russian officials hosted by the turks in ankara. have you been involved in that? the turks have hosted talks with military groups and lots of political figures from the opposition have also been in touch directly with russia. some have gone to moscow and some have met them elsewhere. there are many messages passed on to the russians and they know exactly where the opposition stands and what it is willing to negotiate. really, the problem today is not so much russia and the opposition. they know each other, or they understand each other‘s position. we are willing to operate and negotiate under the political transition, fine, we can go to a negotiation on political transition...
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if i may say, we have talked before and you have always in the past said, you know what, it's quite simple, the removal of assad, no role for us in the transition. that is a dealbreaker dealbreakerfor us. we cannot sign anything or engage in any process that involves assad. it seems to me that you must be changing your mind. if you say you believe in russia's good faith and believe in their desire to see the conflict ended, we know the russians don't feel that assad has to go, so presumably, you have given ground on that, have you? look, can i say very simply, we read the international equation. here's the balance of forces on the ground, here is what russia is seeking to achieve, a political settlement, fine, along the lines of resolutions in the un, to talk about political transition.
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that is fine for us. what assad becomes is how he behaves in these negotiations. is he in a position to make concessions, to yield some of his prerogatives, a lot of his prerogatives, most of his prerogatives, any of his prerogatives, to a transition government? if that is the case, then the discussion changes, but do you think the opposition... but he might be leading the transition. he cannot lead it. what? he obviously cannot lead it, he is not showing any indication other than destroying communities and starving people. we need to see some behaviour that is positive on the other side. then we will have a partnerfor peace. if we don't i think russia will come to terms with the fact that it doesn't have another party on the other side and cannot ask the opposition to do much to work with assad if assad doesn't want to work with the opposition. so, the equation is fairly easy, you know.
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we are not asking for assad to go away the day we enter negotiations. we are talking about negotiations in which there is give and take. we need prisoners out, we need women and children to be safe and to be released also from prison. we need the disappeared, to have news about them. we need to have the bombings stopped, and barrel bombs stop being thrown at people, at civilians. i am sorry to repeat myself, i don't want to get stuck on this issue, but one last time, it seems to me you have given ground on the role of assad. you are now acknowledging to me that assad will be a key figure in the negotiations. he won'tjust be removed, it will be assad in many ways who is the figure deciding what he can give. look, the power of assad is very little, he has nuisance power, yes, but those who are negotiating, the decision—making power, is in moscow and in tehran.
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unfortunately, there is no syrian regime that can still decide on a yes 01’ no. that is why we are talking to russia. we will be talking to the countries and the parties that support the assad regime, not so much the regime itself. we need to find some reasonable voices over there. we have not seen them so far. he has prevented them from rising. and if negotiations can bring those reasonable voices out, and if we can talk to them and have them safely talk to us without being themselves punished for showing some reasonable behaviour, then we will have a negotiated process. otherwise, i think russia will understand — iran is more difficult — but russia will understand that it doesn't have a helpful partner out there and it needs to work differently with the opposition. everything we are talking about is couched in terms of moscow, putin, russia. let's look at how we got
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to where we are today. do you feel desperately let down, maybe even betrayed, by the 0bama administration? i think the 0bama administration has opted out. it should have played the role that was what a us role should be in this region. 0pting out of this region is abandoning certain responsibilities vis—a—vis syria but also vis—a—vis the whole region — iraq, the gulf countries — we are in a region where the us was a key player. it cannotjust pull out as it did. and, in the case of syria, it is the syrian population, yes, paying the price. 0bama, you know, he steered away from obviously any significant military action against assad. it looked possible for a while he walked away from it. he talked — at least, hillary clinton talked for a while about some sort of aerial intervention to establish safe havens.
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they walked a very long way from that. they talked about training moderate forces on the ground. well, the training programme turned out to be pitiful — actually, farcical. so, when you look at all of those elements of what the administration talked about and didn't deliver, give me your final verdict as 0bama's about to leave office? well, i believe he should have thought of where security — how to restore security in syria, and today that his our concern. the 0bama administration has decided that there was no possibility to challenge russia. he certainly should have challenged russia at some point. and at those turning points he failed us, he certainly did. but i think what we are looking at today is, can we bring back security to syria? this is the concern of the international community. unfortunately no one is thinking about assad. assad can sit there.
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they don't see the link and the risk between terrorism rising and assad staying in power. fine, but what we are saying today is, if you want to bring an alternative to the horrible criminal system that we have in syria, then we have to have a security plan for this country. and we need the cooperation of every country. we need the us, we need russia. briefly, your message for donald trump, then, donald trump, the man who says vladimir putin is very smart, and who also says that when it comes to analysing the syria situation, his objective and, frankly, his overriding concern is smashing thejihadists in so—called islamic state. it doesn't seem to be in getting rid of assad whatsoever. so, your message to trump? the message to trump is, get the foreign fighters out of syria. shia militias are pro—iranian, they are iraqis, afghanis, iranians, not syrians. and on the other side there are jihadi foreigners,
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and we want them out of the country. this is what the international community needs to help — the reasonable syrians to achieve in the coming weeks and months. at least then we can have the ground for a political settlement, yes. we don't have much time left, and i want you to reflect on the six years that have brought us here. you've been actively involved with the opposition throughout pretty much that entire six—year period, and here we are with russia in the ascendancy, with the americans basically opted out and donald trump singing it in a way which doesn't sound like it will soon be very well, and on the ground the opposition forces defeated in aleppo and on the defensive in the pockets of territory they still retain, is it time for you to quit, for the opposition to say, we tried, we failed, the country has been ruined and the best thing now is to walk away and accept defeat because that is the only way we can save further life? you know, this is our country, we can't give up, giving up
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makes no sense. what we are looking to do, to achieve... it makes sense if you are saving lives. well, no, it's not, because coming under assad's control tomorrow morning, if that is to happen, is under also under shia militias. again, assad has no capacity to control the country again, has no capacity to govern it, neither legitimacy or military capacity. he needs those foreign troops to be on the ground. so it is too late to imagine a scenario of assad returning and retaking control of a whole country. that is not going to happen because he cannot do it, even if russia wants him to do it, he cannot achieve it. russia knows it. well, i will tell you what, quickly, russia seems to want, as best as we can understand from what officials have said,
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is they want a much more federal system, assad to still be president, much more autonomy to the regions of syria, which would recognise the rights of the different ethnic groupings in the country, a looser, looser system, but one which still has assad at its federal centre. could you imagine excepting that? —— accepting. i think the russians will themselves realise that that is not going to work with assad. we want decentralisation, we want a loose control from the centre, we want, obviously, a democratic party system, so we are on the side of the community on this, is assad on the side of the community? that is a question to ask. is he willing to fightjihadi groups? the shia groups are as jihadi as as al—nusra or daesh. i don't think he has shown indication of that. this is where we believe the opposition is showing every sign
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that it is part of the solution and that working with it builds security capacity and governance capacity for a future syria. yes or no, do you think we will be having this conversation again at the beginning of 2018 with syria still at war, or will it be over by then? i think war will be over by then. i think the parties are exhausted. and i do believe that in 2018 we will be talking about what we have reconstructed so far and how we have brought legitimate governance to the different areas of syria. that is my belief and that is what we are fighting for. we will end on that positive note. bassma kodmani, thank you very much forjoining me from paris. yesterday morning we saw the lowest temperature so far
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in england this winter. we got to —8.1 in rural 0xfordshire. the frost was widespread this morning. there will be some across the south—eastern quarter of the uk. that is because we have more cloud coming in from the west. it is bringing some rain with it and hoping cold temperatures. it is quite wet for the western side of scotla nd quite wet for the western side of scotland to start the day. the eastern side fares better. some fog on the hills and wet weather in northern ireland. the rain fringing into the western side of england and wales. not quite into cornwall yet. a largely dry start. head further east and we run into the lowest temperatures, cold and frosty, and some patches of fog. bear that in
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mind if you heading out on the rates. it could be up and down. into northern england, much more cloud. not much in a way of rainfall, but a bit. two or three in places. through the day, the main area of rain will topple southwards and eastwards and get into the midlands to the afternoon. it never really gets to the south—east. the morning fog moves into low cloud. that will break up into the afternoon. the lowest temperatures there as well. further west, something less cold coming in from the atlantic. less cold air continues to drift its way in through saturday morning, and saturday itself will be a fairly grey day. generally through the weekend, it will be less cold. a lot of cloud around. not much in the way of cloud around. not much in the way of rain. a bit of patchy rain and drizzle to be had. it will be a great start to the dave saturday. a lot of cloud. not much rain. a little bit here and there. a few breaks, but a quiet day in all. 10—
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11 degrees. something less cold than the united kingdom into the weekend. however, a cold wind will bring pretty low temperatures to central and southern parts europe. —10 by day in the balkans. back on our shores on sunday, and what similar to the first part of the weekend. a lot of cloud not much rain. temperatures 10— 12 degrees. for the early pa rt temperatures 10— 12 degrees. for the early part of the week, more u nsettled early part of the week, more unsettled with a band of rain starting in the north—west and ending up in the south—east. hello, you're watching bbc world news, i'mjames menendez. our top story this hour: moscow denies us intelligence claims that it directed cyber attacks and interfered with november's presidential election. after dismissing claims of russian hacking again, donald trump is due to be briefed by senior spy chiefs later. welcome to the programme.
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our other main stories this hour: turkish police are still searching for a suspect who escaped after a bomb attack in izmir, officials say kurdish militants were behind the attack. more than 600 arrests in mexico after demonstrations over rising gasoline prices led to looting and violence. i'm aaron heselhurst. in business:
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