tv Dateline London BBC News January 14, 2017 11:30am-12:01pm GMT
intelligence and the media, or it's a conspiracy by donald trump's supporters — and perhaps russian intelligence — to help trump become president and embarrass the media with fake news. either way, how far can mr trump's team of talented family members, billionaires, ex—generals and others heal america's obvious divisions? this is the week when he will become president of the united states. detox about bringing the country together. people want that. will it happen? now, it will not happen. the country is divided. it is not a new thing. it is not something that has happened in last year and a half since donald trump declared he would run for president and he has become a divisive figure. the country has been building to this since you are correspondent in washington, gavin. you wrote a book about her angry americans wear. sometimes when the economy is bad, the sense of being ata economy is bad, the sense of being at a distance with fellow citizens is pushed to the site when the economy is ok. it has not been 0k since the crash in 2008 for many.
evenif since the crash in 2008 for many. even if he was a more emollient and traditional politician, i don't see that he could bring the country together. barack that he could bring the country together. ba rack obama that he could bring the country together. barack obama is exactly that. he wasn't able to bridge the divide. the other part of your question, about who do you trust? use extraordinary good at exploiting that question. who do you trust? after decades and decades in which the traditional news media, and they include the bbc new york times, have had their reputations, principally trashed. —— reputations comprehensively trashed. millions of people every day get their news from sources that are decidedly nontraditional. there is exploiting whom? the traditional way of finding it would be to gundogan find out. there is no time in the modern news cycle. it is an extraordinary change
of historical circumstance. the other part of this, and so many things have gone on in the last week, but to have gas and who will become president of the us in a fight with us intelligence services and suggesting there could be warmer relations with russia... that in any time in the last 50 years, would seem like that sentence got mixed up. many things sound like they could never have happened before. that is the answer to your question. donald trump not only casual divides, she doesn't want to. —— he does not want to. the way that he got to where he is today is by exploiting divides. in his last press conference , exploiting divides. in his last press conference, which he gave when he was in a fight with cnn, when things get calm, donald trump gets nervous and has to provide content and substance. so he asked to provide drama all the time. he is going to govern from the fringes. he
is going to govern people on his side and alienate everyone else. whether that includes the cia, the republican party, whoever, he knows that all he needs is the support of those people who voted for him. they got him to where he is. until, when he says they need a tax to pay for the wall in mexico, congress don't agree. otherwise his domestic programme will not happen. but you have to remember that even though some republicans made very wise, lofty pronouncements and trump and how they are not happy he is here and they tried so hard to make sure that there was a decent candidate, he brought them back from the brink. he brought them back from death will stop they were in the hinterland. they are now back in the driving seat. they need to work with them to ensure they have a future in government. there's all kinds of parts of this for germany as well.
we will get to that in a minute. i was thinking, the german elections coming up. germany is clearly quite alarmed that the kind of intervention which now most people, wider conspiracy theories is believed russia did play a role in the us election. if it happens, it can happen in germany. there is a lot of nervousness ahead of the elections in germany in september. everyone is expecting more russian intervention in domestic german politics. for example, there was a lot of... there was a big story when refugee crisis started in 2015, with a fake story about a russian girl being rates by refugees. that came out and was manipulated story. you can see that what we see now in the us isjust... it is happening in europe as well. we will all have to deal with this? yes. and
europe as well. we will all have to dealwith this? yes. and it europe as well. we will all have to deal with this? yes. and it is a big challenge. it is an extraordinary week and we will get on to do these the fight with the doctors in britain, which is politically very brave. we also have which is politically quite brave and american president to say that he thinks there might be something a bit wrong within american intelligence. that is quite brave. it is very brave when you consider what happened to some of the previous presidency got into a row with the cia. jfk springs to mind and sold as richard nixon. what on earth ever happened to him? he is playing a dangerous public quite clever game. he understands media and how to disrupt media and block part of the traditional structures in a way that gives him inc". ultimately, the problem for him is the promises he makes essentially defy economic logic. he
talks about increasing entitlements, lowering taxes, detection is —— protectionism but then making life better for protectionism but then making life betterfor american protectionism but then making life better for american workers. but prices will go up if they go that route. so it is very difficult to see how he can, between now and the midterms, which is the beauty of the american system, he has two years, if in those two years does not go economically quite as he has promised people in michigan and those sorts of states that voted for him, then he has a problem. of course, his response then will be to blame congress. he will be the man who says, i try to do other stuff and it is just because these two parties are completely useless. this isa parties are completely useless. this is a swap that they have to dream. he won so narrowly and on such a quirk of the electoral system, he sta rts quirk of the electoral system, he starts with hillary having 3 million more votes in the electoral college. his approval ratings, probably aside from hilary, the worst of any
president. reagan's budget director says we break it now, we fix it later. in other words, spend money and worry about that later. that is presumably what he will try to do?|j do presumably what he will try to do?” do not think his mind goes far as that. or even as far as the midterms! i don't think that as it works. the interesting thing to watch, said from his twitter feed, which i do wish they would stop, he plays the american mainstream media like a fiddle. who cares what he treats any more? we're not supposed to normalise donald trump. this is is normal behaviour, at 3am he says something crazy. the real action is now focused on congress. it is com pletely now focused on congress. it is completely in the hands of the republicans. they are deeply and geological party. we should be looking at what they do more than what he does. —— ideological party. and knowing that, we have to look at
which republicans will stand up to him. in the senate, guys likejohn mccain, he hasjust been re—elected, he has six years, 1.5 trump terms, and it is possible he could run for and it is possible he could run for a second term. he has 1.5 terms to face up to a guy likejohn mccain. in the senate, villa ‘s possibilities of standing and vision back against any —— a new administration short on common political sense. but the problem the rest of us have is that the president, as you know, has the most power in terms of an executive order in an agency. that is why people are worried. people are quite scared. in the event of a terror attack some unforeseen foreign prices, the imperial presidency, as it has grown in the
last 40, 50 years, has a huge power. he has freedom notjust a tweet but to act on those tweets and take action... and he has support. the point you made earlier about him defying logic i trying to propose economic measures that are not doable, we sit here for months before the election saying, trump cannot win because it defies logic. he won because he defied logic. his supporters do not care. people who supporters do not care. people who support them plainly do not care about what he promises on the economy. there is no benchmark. you can blame everything on his opponents, like brexit, if it goes wrong, it is the fault of the remainder is —— people who voted remain. let's move on. russians — and friends of the kremlin — hate to be reminded that the soviet union was on the nazi side when world war two started. stalin and hitler carved up poland between them — and then, when stalinjoined the winning side, his comradely forces occupied poland and imposed communist governments.
now poland is being reinforced by us troops and other nato forces, and so how serious is the prospect of new conflict in europe in the 21st century? this is something germans and people in scandinavia in particular are very sensitive about for obvious reasons. and it is not only about poland but the reinsurance measurements that are started in poland, bulgaria and romania. iwas in lithuania to watch the final exercise of nato troops before they start deploying. the british will go to estonia, i think. there start deploying. the british will go to estonia, ithink. there is start deploying. the british will go to estonia, i think. there is around 5000 troops in this region, reassuring measures. if you go to lithuania, they have a long, tragic story of occupation by the germans, then of course by russia. there is a tangible fear. people are scared there. if you look at the numbers, 5000 nato troops, but if you look
couple of miles over the border, 100,000 russian troops on the western border of russia and you have these missiles that can be equipped with nuclear weapons. if you talk to people in natal, the question is, will we really see a state and state war? is this possible? on the other hand, we talked about trump and manipulation of the german election. there is also the case of manipulation in other areas and destabilisation. how do you see this? the way you characterise this, it is a deterrent, a trip were, it is not the to fight a war but to say that we're the to fight a war but to say that we' re interested. which underlines, look, it is 100
yea rs which underlines, look, it is 100 years this year since the russian revolution. i think we need to start thinking about russia again seriously. trying to understand russian psychology. history gives us some quite basic lessons. do not invade russia. do not try and provoke russia. russia is so vast that armies could be swallowed up in it. essentially, the thing to do is to try and contain russia. suggest to try and contain russia. suggest to russia that we are serious about western defence and we need to start thinking again... brexit to one side. the much bigger european question is the integrity of the west and western security. we have got out of the habit of having to think about this in the last 25 yea rs think about this in the last 25 years or so and it is now back front and centre. part of that is that at the end of the cold war, to put it in simple terms, the west won the cold war. natal won the cold war and there was no big conference or congress in vienna, there was no
versailles treaty. the russians had reasons to believe they were discounted because they were weak. that was perhaps, looking at it, a long—term mistake. that was perhaps, looking at it, a long-term mistake. it was, and one that people have not learned from in the past. i know that it is tedious when people hark back to nazi germany but it is the same mistake people make with nazi germany in world war i. a sense that it was the end of history, they had dominated and there was no sort of plan. one of the main lesson is that a staggering that people have not learned, to see how brexit is played out in the troubled action is played out, andi out in the troubled action is played out, and i think if you are an immigrant, these things are clear in your head. but the fact that natal and the european union and all these things happened because there was a fair that there could be a big rupturing incident. world war ii, people think it would happen again but these things have receded from the public consciousness in a way that i find really strange. in a way
that i find really strange. in a way that i find really strange. in a way that i think people of the south have not forgotten. and they do feel that these threats are real and imminent. in answerto that these threats are real and imminent. in answer to the question you made the first place, how dangerous and how feasible is it, how realistic is it that we could descend into a conflict, i think it is entirely feasible. blunder into it. blunder into it with a series of unfortunate events. this is where the world war i analogy comes in. the steps that led to the conflict beginning where a series of blunders. the incorrect dramatic assumptions about how far governments will go. i have to be give up the congress of vienna. poland was partitioned at the congress of vienna. to bring about a donald trump, and mean, it is something that we still can't know. it has been reported today, actually, that in late december,
barack obama actually, that in late december, ba rack obama that actually, that in late december, barack obama that new sanctions on russia because of the allegations of hacking into the dnc and trying to interfere with the american election. on the very day that he did that, the incoming head of the national security agency, retired general mike flynn, was on the phone to the russian embassy. in fact, apparently, through the transition period, he is in regular contact with the russian embassy and has been a regular guest on russia, today. the devil's advocate position is, donald trump is right. we need a better relationship with russia. maybe you can do it. maybe having someone maybe you can do it. maybe having someone from exxon, used to dealing with russia, is a good thing. someone from exxon, used to dealing with russia, is a good thingm could be good, but what does that mean in terms of your european partners, since 1945? rex tillerson, who is secretary of state designate, said, how would you have dealt with
the invasion of ukraine? he said... the reason they say that vladimir putin has been respectful of angela merkel, she sees the broader picture and this is what she sees through. i agree with you, you need to find a new language with russia. all the polemic doesn't take us anywhere. the big question the end of the day is, how do you read vladimir putin? they say that he is like a dancer with the woman. when you step back, he will come forward. to keep that balance right... he is a classic russian. he is a prerevolutionary figure, ina russian. he is a prerevolutionary figure, in a sense. he uses the techniques of the kgb and fsb and never really left the kgb. the way that he thinks about russia is he wa nts to that he thinks about russia is he wants to restore a concept of respect for russia and russia being
a great power. and only once, other than possibly during the revolution and at the end of the first world war, has russia been properly fully defeated. that was from 89 until 2000. the response and swing back was the choice of someone like flooding britain to restore an idea of russian pride. —— someone like vladimir putin. people cottoned on that that well ago but the response to vladimir putin has been to laugh at him, for five years ago, and re ce ntly at him, for five years ago, and recently to basically disintegrate in the face of this resolved from russia. it was interesting that in the headlines it said the operation of nato troops was called atlantic resolved at the same time europe is falling apart and america's detaching itself from europe and potentially from natal. so, do not
laugh at him but do not disintegrate in the face of the russian determination. let's move on. in britain, we have had prime ministers talk of the big society and the shared society, of those "left behind", "hardworking people", the squeezed middle and jams — just about managing. this week, we also heard the national health service faces a "humanitarian crisis". instead of debating acronyms and slogans, how serious are the social problems facing britain, in particular those associated with the ever—spiralling cost of health care? whatever you think of it, it is quite bright for downing street to say that the family doctors, the most respected profession in britain, pretty much, need to work longer, and if they don't, they will lose funding. opinion polls suggest there is resentment from people about the deal done to give gps shorter hours. i think you're right, in the middle of this crisis, it is a brave and somewhat reckless strategy. there is also a degree
of... there is something seriously wrong here and that is a problem not so much quickly with the nhs. it is a problem with social care, a problem that western countries have. britain's population above the age of 85 full double in the next ten yea rs. of 85 full double in the next ten years. britain has not had a proper grown—up conversation about how that should be dealt with and paid for. what is happening is that that pressure is then loaded onto the nhs in accident and emergency. you'll get the headlines from 20 years ago, 30 years ago. nhs is always impresses. especially in january. -- a lwa ys impresses. especially in january. -- always in crisis. i think it is an exaggeration. does germany do things better? your health service in general costs more per ashya of —— per share of gdp. it does. almost every day, you have a headline about
the nhs. in germany, headline about the nhs. in germany, headline about the health service is probably if they pay for a massage or acupuncture treatment. not life and death. it is people in miserable conditions. you think, i do not want to get ill. they have brilliant doctors, but the capacity is completely... it is money. in germany, you pay around 16% of your salary into a contribution insurance system. it is not tax paid like in the uk. i looked at the numbers. in germany, per capita, you haven't eight hospital beds per capita. in the uk, 2.9 beds per capita. gdp is around 11 or 12%. in germany. in the uk, 8%. in germany, you pay more money to solve the problems. and you have a lot of people in the uk and
you have had savings and savings in public services while more people come into the country. but then you have the democratic rubble when people get older. —— demographic problem. you need more money but other things as well. one is not to be partisan when dealing with the labour party and conservative party. whenever you see a debate about the nhs, it is always posturing. it is never people try to find common ground. the posturing and partisanship handset. —— harms it. it isa partisanship handset. —— harms it. it is a political hot potato which is why there are these headlines. if you observe it in the last 20 years, no—onein you observe it in the last 20 years, no—one in government will say, this is something that predates us and will probably happen after we leave. everyone is trying to prove that firstly, there is no issue, which is what theresa may was trying to do by deflecting it onto gps. gps not pulling their weight. if there is an issue, it is one precipitated by
legacy. that is something we picked up legacy. that is something we picked up from government before. there is a lot of dishonesty, political fear and partisanship. politicalfear, we know that one person who went in to see tony blair to be promoted was terribly worried he would get health. to get it is a bit of... maybe that is why they have not replaced jeremy hunt after all these yea rs. replaced jeremy hunt after all these years. no—one else raised his hand in cabinetand years. no—one else raised his hand in cabinet and said, i will take it. jeremy is doing such a noveljob, someone jeremy is doing such a noveljob, someone has to fix it. it is a very difficultjob. someone has to fix it. it is a very difficult job. very difficult job. nhs, after the monarchy, the thing that defines being a modern brit, the sense of pride in the nhs...m the sense of pride in the nhs...m the opening ceremony of the nhs.” come from america and went last if i would never move back, i think, how much money, even with some form of obamacare, which would be around in a month, but the amount of money have to earn before i pay tax just
to ensure my family... here, that whole thing has been lifted from my shoulders. there is a cultural fixation on it. i think there is a cultural fixation on the nhs in this country and people think that there is this... there was an interview with immigrants to see how well the integrated in the uk. when asked what the nhs dans four, one said national health service, and then someone national health service, and then someone said, no, it is envy of the world. this is the curious thing about the british. i accept that there needs to be more money, particularly on social care. but almost alone in europe or in the world is this concept of a massive national service, run effectively from a desk in whitehall, with a staff of more thani million in whitehall, with a staff of more than 1 million people. in whitehall, with a staff of more thani million people. highly centralised. and whenever there is a problem in a part of the system, it
becomes a mash of —— massive national scandal. this is not to other countries do it. the health service has evolved to this point and changes began going back to the 1980s, when there is an idea of starting the beast coming from conservatives. —— conservatism. people would get fed up with social ca re people would get fed up with social care and want to go private. and look, the other thing, and this might come out wrong, but because the population of this country shot up the population of this country shot up after 2004, this put a tremendous stress that has not been budgeted for or accurately assessed by all the consultants who are meant to figure out that. that is true, but as well as more money, the opposite is true. we need a more partisan discussion because we need to be the consensus and there has to be room for new ideas, like what germany, france and italy are doing. let's move on. that's it for dateline london for this week.
you can comment on the programme on twitter and engage with our guests @gavinesler. we're back next week at the same time — make a date with dateline london. goodbye. hello. it is a quieter day for most of us today. there will be a scattering of showers but also some sunshine as well. some showers running food north sea coasts could be wintry and this north—west of a breeze has been driving some showers in the ibc this morning. —— in of the irish sea. you can see, moving into the isle of man with organised band of rain as it pushes through manchester liverpool. by contrast, a
beautiful start in much of east anglia. cold, yes, but longerspells of sunshine. that will be the story through the rest of the day. we will have some sunshine for many. showers in east anglia, running the risk of sleet and snow. here, it stays cold but further west, some cloud around and some scattered showers. milder here with seven or eight celsius. hopefully clinging onto some sunshine. if you do get some showers, there could be some light dusting is a snow in east anglia but they should be few and far between. northern ireland, western fringes of scotla nd northern ireland, western fringes of scotland in milder here with seven celsius. some cloud and showers. generally speaking, it is better and quieter in terms of the weather for scotland. for the football, quieter in terms of the weather for scotland. forthe football, it looks like a solution of everything. to these, sunshine will continue the further west you are, so always a chance of a little more in the way the cloud. clear skies in the east will allow for an early frost but a weather front pushes in from the
atlantic, wind swinging to a westerly. on the leading edge, we could seize sleet and snow for a time before it comes back to rain. milderair time before it comes back to rain. milder air arrives from the west, still called in to the east. it will get the. it will take its time in doing so as the weather fronts continue to drift each was —— drift eastwards. for a time first thing in the morning across lincolnshire, eastern lincoln and what to say these, we could season snow. that was back to rain. for sunday, it is a great, grisly affair. showery outbreaks of rain continuing. temperatures struggling at two celsius in some areas. it could stay chilly in the south—east for the early pa rt chilly in the south—east for the early part of next week, but the father north west you go, it will stay cloudy and mild. —— but the further north—west yougov. this is bbc news. i'm gavin esler. the headlines at midday...
gps are warned by downing street to keep their surgeries open longer to meet patient demand — or risk losing funding. the one thing in general practice needsis the one thing in general practice needs is more resources, more funding, more nurses. what we cannot cope with is having any further pressure at the idea of cutting funding would be a disaster. more than 5000 homes were evacuated after a storm surge passes in the east of england last night. a group of mps says theresa may must spell out whether she wants the uk to remain in the single market by the middle of next month, before talks can begin. also in the next hour — a girl stolen from hospital when she was just eight hours old is found — 18 years