this is bbc news, the headlines at four: theresa may sets out her objectives for withdrawal from the european union saying the uk will leave the single market. not partial membership of the european union, associate membership of the european union, or anything that leaves us half in, half out. scotland's first minister says the move could be economically catastrophic. labour claims the prime minister is trying to have her cake and eat it. she has said that to lead the single market and at the same time she wa nts to market and at the same time she wants to have access to the single market, i am wants to have access to the single market, iam not wants to have access to the single market, i am not quite sure that will go down in europe. inflation went up sharply last month, pushed by rising food prices and air fares. security at beach hotels in tunisia was criticised in a report for the government, months before 38 people were killed in a terrorist attack, an inquest hears. and in the next hour we'll report on how donald trump's latest tweet in praise of his daughter
ivanka brought internet fame to an unsuspecting woman in brighton. and the rambling reptile — what happens when a giant alligator crosses your path. good afternoon and welcome to bbc news. the prime minister says the uk will leave the eu single market when it quits the european union. in her long—awaited speech on the impact of britain leaving the eu, theresa may said she would seek a new free trade agreement with europe for a "global britain". mrs may also confirmed that both houses of parliament will get to vote on it. the labour leader, jeremy corbyn said mrs may seemed to want to "have her cake and eat it".
we'll be getting political and business reaction shortly, but first this report from our political correspondent iain watson. good morning, what is the plan. you have heard her slogan, brexit means brexit. today we saw some of the substance. theresa may voted to remain in the european union, but she consulted leading league campaigners, boris johnson and she consulted leading league campaigners, borisjohnson and david davies, over the most important speech she has made since becoming prime minister. she did not give a detailed plan for brexit, but she did set out a direction of travel. not partial membership of the european union, associate membership of the european union, or anything that leaves us half in, half out. i wa nt to that leaves us half in, half out. i want to be clear. what i am proposing cannot mean membership of the single market. inside the european single market there are no trade barriers, no tariffs, between
the states, but they have to abide by rules and one of those means a freedom of people and goods, that means it is difficult to limit immigration. the prime minister wa nts a immigration. the prime minister wants a new free trade deal with the eu and the control of the uk borders was politically important. the message from the public before and during the referendum campaign was clear. brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to britain from europe. and she said britain from europe. and she said britain would have to come out of some aspects of the customs union, oi’ some aspects of the customs union, or leave it entirely, as full membership would limit the ability to do the sort of trade deals the prime ministerfavours. but to do the sort of trade deals the prime minister favours. but whatever changes the government makes with oui’ changes the government makes with our relationship to the eu, she wa nts our relationship to the eu, she wants business to have time to adjust. it is in no one's interests we re adjust. it is in no one's interests were there to be a cliff edge for business or a threat to stability as we change our existing relationship toa we change our existing relationship to a new partnership with the eu. and she had this uncompromising
message for the remaining 27 members. while i am sure positive agreement can be reached, i am equally clear no deal for britain is better than a bad dealfor britain. the prime minister has given us a bit more clarity today, but in doing so she has given more ammunition to her opponents for an attack. deviously denouncing statements of red, and blue brexit seemed a bit of a fog, but today the battle lines are more firmly drawn. throughout the speech there was a threat that somehow along the line if all her optimism of a deal with the eu did not work, we would move into a low tax corporate taxation, bargain basement economy on the shores of europe. the prime minister said mps would get a vote on the final deal to lead the eu, but the lib dems claim she has no mandate to take britain out of the single market and there should be another boat. all
there should be another boat. all the polling we have shows that 90% of the british people believe we should be in the single market. this isa should be in the single market. this is a theft of democracy. politicians get to vote on the stitch up, but the people do not. if this process started with democracy lastjune, it must not end up with a stitch up. we must not end up with a stitch up. we must trust the people with the destination also. but ukip is concerned the exit could happen to slowly. she spoke about interim measures, a phase which will only start in april 2019, we want this done quickly. we want a clean break with the european union, a free—trade deal and we can get on with an independent nation. she faced some criticism from political opponents in britain, but the real task will be to persuade 27 countries to listen to the uk's demands. countries to listen to the uk's demands. live to westminster and our chief political correspondent vicki young. we are gauging reaction from mps who
we re we are gauging reaction from mps who were on different sides in the referendum campaign and i am joined by peter bone who was a campaigner for leaving the eu. what is your reaction to her speech today? for leaving the eu. what is your reaction to her speech today7m for leaving the eu. what is your reaction to her speech today? it was the best speech by the british prime minister on the the best speech by the british prime ministeron the eu the best speech by the british prime minister on the eu ever. in my long—time campaigning to come out of the eu did i everthink i long—time campaigning to come out of the eu did i ever think i would hear a british prime minister saying we would definitely come out and here are the 12 ways in which we will do it? i are the 12 ways in which we will do it? lam are the 12 ways in which we will do it? i am over the moon. she said clearly we will leave the single market, but on the customs union she was not quite as decided. she says she has an open mind, what is your view on what we should do?” she has an open mind, what is your view on what we should do? i have just come from the commons and that was expanded in the statement by david davies, the minister for exiting the eu. we cannot be in the customs union as it is now because they let the trade tariffs across they let the trade tariffs across the world and we want to be a global
trading nation. it may be that we have a british bilateral agreement with them, but we will not be in the customs union as it is. will our eu partners grant us that kind of arrangement? we are asking for everything we want and you go to negotiations doing that. we do not know for sure if they will give it to us. they will be mad not to because they have a £60 billion a year surplus with the united kingdom in trade. they will not want to put any barriers on their exporters selling into this country. it is much more of an advantage to them to have a free trade area than tariffs. it is in their own interest to do it andl it is in their own interest to do it and i cannot imagine the directors of mercedes will say we have to have this free—trade deal to germany. i am confident we will get it. that is the argument that has been put to those who want to leave. it is
right. that is an economic argument, but when it comes to the eu there is a political side to it. they do not wa nt a political side to it. they do not want us to have as good a deal outside as we had inside and that could be the trump factor for them. do you mean the european elite that i’ui'i do you mean the european elite that run the european union? you are right. the people making the decisions in the negotiations. all over europe there is a growing movement to rebel against the european union. unless they are going to ignore the people, we will get this. if they ignore the people, thatis get this. if they ignore the people, that is the death knell for the european union itself. angela merkel has suggested you cannot encourage other countries to leave, so there will be a downside to the negotiations for the uk. to take your example that they decide to impose tariffs both ways, we will be
financially considerably better off because we will collect far more duty in tariffs than the european union would. because of services as well. we will be billions of pounds better off. because there is a flaw in the pound, our exports have been made so much more cheaper and their imports so much more expensive that everything is going our way and that is why the economy is growing. yesterday the growth forecast was put up round about 15%. that was by the imf. it is a prosperous britain we can look forward to when we come out of the eu. peter bone in typically optimistic and robust mood. those on that side of the argument and others are now saying 110w argument and others are now saying now is the time for everybody to get behind the negotiation because in the months ahead theresa may will not get everything in her own way. we will be talking about reaction in
germany and in the last few moments the reuters news agency is carrying quotes from the german car—maker bmw, which builds the mini in britain, and it is saying it is best for business for the uk to be in the single market. the company is urging london to ensure the country retains tariff free access to the block. the initial comments from bmw. i have been talking about all of this with oui’ been talking about all of this with our berlin correspondent before we heard that news. we have been talking about reaction in germany withjenny hill. talking about reaction in germany with jenny hill. first and foremost, and you mentioned the foreign minister, he has expressed relief that seven months after this decision was first made finally europe is starting to get an idea of what britain might want. that is the overriding sense here at the moment. but more than one mp has started to
make the point that perhaps theresa may's plans are rather over ambitious. 0ne may's plans are rather over ambitious. one said this idea of trying to negotiate a trade deal from scratch with the rest of the eu within that two—year timetable after the triggering of article 50 will not be possible. there is a lot of concern here amongst mps about what happens at that stage. no one wants to see this go off the edge of a cliff, will there be an interim agreement? lots of questions. theresa may raised this herself, should the eu be punishing britain for leaving, in effect trying to stop other eu member states heading for the door themselves? while some mps say that is not what we want and they say we want friendship and alliance with britain, there are voices here who say, and i am quoting one conservative mp, no one who leaves can be rewarded by european co—operation, after all we
do not want imitators. i get the sense this will not be a simple negotiation, but for now here in berlin there is relief. it is worth pointing out that the german government and cabinet have formed a special brexit committee, formed of some of the most senior ministers here and they will meet tomorrow. they will be going through what theresa may said with a fine tooth comb, working out how they will prepare their response. the lying is officially still, we will not respond on this or be drawn into negotiations and to article 50 is triggered. behind—the—scenes eve ryo ne triggered. behind—the—scenes everyone is talking about this. just why we are talking, we hear on the reuters news agency that the german industry association, the ih k, says german companies will now back investment in the uk because of
brexit. that is literally all we are hearing. iam brexit. that is literally all we are hearing. i am not sure brexit. that is literally all we are hearing. iam not sure if brexit. that is literally all we are hearing. i am not sure if they are giving a news conference, but german companies will scale back investment. that is interesting and worrying. it is interesting because last night angela merkel made a speech to one of the branches of that, the chamber of commerce and industry, and she urged businesses in germany to support the government's line, that line being do not allow britain to start trying to cherry pick and do deals with german companies independently. you get the sense from german business that so far it has pretty much supported the german line. whilst there are vast pies or business here, for example the car industry, who see britain is very valuable market that they do not want to upset, they are very cautious about giving too many concessions because it could upset the rest of the eu and that upsets the rest of their
business as well. business, whilst it is lobbying for an easy time for britain in some respects, it is conscious of the political ramifications of what it actually doesin ramifications of what it actually does in practice. it does not surprise me they have put out that kind of statement. let's return to piquillo at westminster. you have more. yes, we have, never ending reaction. earlier i was talking to peter bone from the conservatives. i have a different view from the former cabinet minister kenneth clarke. theresa may has made it clear we are leaving the single market. what is your reaction? she has not said anything today that she did not say before. i thought the tone was better, it was more grown—up, it was more accepting that this is an everybody's interests, the way we lead. we do have a
successful eu and we will agree on things, we are sensible people and germany and france will agree with sensible people in britain. iwas quite bewildered actually. we are contemplating some new trade barriers between ourselves and our biggest single market were at the moment we have completely unfettered access. we are in favour of parliamentary sovereignty, but we will not have a vote until it is all over. what are we going to do about access under the single market and membership of the customs union? i listened to david davis as well as theresa may and i am none the wiser i'iow theresa may and i am none the wiser now and i do not think they are either. do you think she is relying on the goodwill of our eu partners? she is saying, let's be sensible, the best thing is we carry on with free trade. she is appealing to
their better nature. is there any sign that they will give us what we want? they will not give us what we want, but that is the right approach. the right—wing eurosceptic press are triumphant because we got the whole country to vote to leave the whole country to vote to leave the eu, but the whole thing in terms of punishment by the europeans or as poking them in the eye, that is not the attitude that will be struck by theresa may or angela merkel or anybody else. sensible people on both sides of the channel will wish to preserve as much as they can of the present benefits of britain being a member. if britain pulls out of membership, we want to avoid trade barriers and doing too much economic damage. we have to minimise the political damage and reassure people that we accept we face, threats from vladimir putin and all this sort of thing, but on trade the tone will be welcome. that was the
best thing about what she said today. on the actual detail of what the british government thinks it can sell to good eurosceptics, i say we remain completely in the dark. do you still think this will be detrimental to british business? do you have fears for what will happen to the uk economy? yes, but if you haveis to the uk economy? yes, but if you have is we have completely unfettered access to a completely open, free market in goods and services to 500 million people, if you retreat from that and put some new barriers in place, you will make yourself worse off than you were before. they will suffer as well. that is why you need sensible negotiation to minimise that. what they have described is they will leave the single market and they will have a new, one of trade agreement to replace it between the united kingdom and the european
union. a trade agreement with anybody, including new zealand, means you accept binding rules. both sides are bound by rules. you have a dispute procedure, you have arbitration. you do not suddenly say that the british will decide what the rules are at any given time and only our records will settle the dispute. 0r only our records will settle the dispute. or you go to the wta and thatis dispute. or you go to the wta and that is far worse than anything else. i will not go into any more technical detail, but the fact is when isa technical detail, but the fact is when is a single market becoming a free trade agreement? what is the difference? free trade agreement? what is the difference ? if free trade agreement? what is the difference? if i want to be really encourage. . . difference? if i want to be really encourage... controlling immigration is the key thing theresa may wants to do. she wants to control immigration, but she once all the people that we need to be allowed to come. if she starts bringing in work
permits for students and academics and everyone working in the economy, you cannot be in the single market. we are responsible for the single market, it is a thatcher government idea and we have always had freedom of movement and leaving aside immigration control, and we have no idea what will be introduced in immigration control, if you are going to trade, you have got to have movement of people and binding rules and arbitration or a court. if you leave the single market and accept all the single market rules, but they are british and we are not changing them and we are giving up the european court, but we accept and arbitration agreement which has british people and foreigners sorting out the dispute, i am not sure what you gain. we will still follow the common market rules, but
britain will not have any say over what those rules are. very different view, not quite so optimistic as our previous guest on what the future holds for britain outside the european union. scotland's first minister nicola sturgeon said theresa may's strategy for leaving the eu isn't in scotland's interests and it's now clear that the uk is heading for a hard brexit, which could be economically catastrophic. she said scotland has to be able to choose a different future. 0ur scotland editor sarah smith is in glasgow. directly in response to what theresa may had to say about consulting the devolved institutions, nicola sturgeon said she has not seen evidence that scotland's voice is being listened to and she also said that the uk government cannot take scotland out of the eu without scotland having the ability to consider its future. you may remember at the end of last year nicola sturgeon laid out her preferred options for the brexit negotiations. she said she wanted the whole of the uk to stay in the single market, but if that was not
possible, scotland should be allowed to stay in the single market and extra powers should be devolved to the scottish parliament to make that possible. it did not sound like that was under consideration in what theresa may had to say today, so what does that mean? well, nicola sturgeon recently ruled at the idea of having another out the idea of having another independence referendum in 2017, but she also stated she is very much not bluffing about having a referendum on scottish independence at some point if, as she puts it, scotland is driven off a hard brexit cliff. it may be that what she has seen today as she was watching the prime minister's speech inside her official residence in bute house in edinburgh, sounded very much like the kind of hard brexit she said could provoke another vote on scottish independence. the rate of inflation is at its highest level in two and a half years. the consumer prices index rose to 1.6% last month. the increase in the cost of living is partly being put down to rising air fares and food.
to this heathrow—based haulier, the effect is very obvious. because the pound is weaker, you need more pounds to buy the same goods in dollars. fuel had been falling in price. 0n today's inflation numbers it up by 10%. the company can absorb the cost, but not for ever. the cost of the fuel is starting to bite. we will have to put a fuel surcharge in like everybody else in this industry once we go past a certain level because we cannot afford to keep those costs in—house. the effect of the weaker pound is most obvious up the supply chain where raw materials, most of them imported, are up by 15.8%. so far producers have not been passing most of that on. with prices at the factory gate up 2.7% only now is that starting to feed through to shop prices, up 1.6%. sterling is having an impact now and we are seeing import prices pushing up quite markedly and that is the sharp fall in sterling since the brexit vote which is driving a lot of that.
but the bigger move from the sterling effect is still to come because contracts have still to be renewed and that is where we think inflation moves up much further from the 1.6% we have seen today, to above 3%. food prices are still lower than they were last year. goods prices generally had been falling for most of the last two years, though not any more. the return of inflation may be temporary, a one—off adjustment, or if workers start to demand higher wages, it could become permanent. the weaker pound has also prompted us companies who do a lot of business in the uk to bump up their prices. they may be making the same money or more here in the uk in pounds, but when that is exchanged for us dollars it is much less, so the likes of apple are raising their uk prices to make up. within seven days an app which now costs 79p will cost 99p, a 25% rise. today the court has been hearing
from a senior foreign office official who has been defending the advice given to travellers going to junior c at the time. richard galpin has been following those inquests at the royal courts of justice. we have been hearing from a very senior foreign office official, jane mariette, she is the head of the government's unit on international terrorism and experienced in the middle east. the key question, the foreign office plays a very important role in tourism and travel because it puts out travel advisories for everyone to see on the internet. if you are going somewhere where there is a risk you can look on the website and work out what the risk is. what we have heard
todayis what the risk is. what we have heard today is the foreign office decided not to increase its travel advisory, ta ke not to increase its travel advisory, take it to the highest level, which would be advising british nationals against all travel to tunisia, despite their having been the horrific attack in tunisia in the capitaljuniors horrific attack in tunisia in the capital juniors in march, horrific attack in tunisia in the capitaljuniors in march, 2015, targeting a museum in which 22, mostly foreign, tourists were killed. this came just three months before the attack ensues, the subject of this inquest. there has been a lot of focus on that and whether the foreign office should indeed have changed its advice or not. what this foreign office officials said is they believe they took a decision in march 2015 across whitehall that they would not do so because the threat was not sufficient enough, despite the previous attack, they thought the threat was not sufficient enough to go to the highest level. that raises
questions, one of which is whether the foreign office was concerned about the impact of pulling all british tourists from tunisia. 400,000 went there in 2014, what impact that would have on tunisia. it would have a massive impact on the tourist industry which is very important, which then would have had an impact on the economy and that in turn could have had an impact on the tunisian government. tunisia was described in court today as the one surviving member, or surviving country of the arab spring in the sense the arab spring had led to change from a dictatorship to a democratic government, but as we know in all the other countries with an arab spring it has led to absolute chaos or the return of a dictatorship. they were worried that
a nascent democratic government in tunisia might be destabilised by undermining the tourist industry. 0ne undermining the tourist industry. one of the unions behind the southern rail strikes has agreed to suspend three days of action next week whilst talks take place posted by the tuc. representatives from the drivers‘ union aslef will meet representatives tomorrow to try to end the long—running dispute. a woman from brighton who was mistaken for ivanka trump on twitter by none other than the us president—elect himself says it‘s all a bit surreal. this is the twitter feed — @ivankatrump — of the daughter of the president—elect. but because of a simple typing error, he actually directed people to the twitter feed of a different ivanka. this one lives in brighton and her handle isjust @ivanka. the mistake quickly went viral. she responded on twitter too urging the future president to be a bit more careful in future and put in a word for global warming while she was at it. nick miller has the forecast.
it is very warm across northern ireland and parts of scotland. 13 or 14. but it is just1 degrees ireland and parts of scotland. 13 or 14. but it isjust1 degrees in kent, despite the fact there is some sunshine. some dreary weather this afternoon and into this evening across north—west england with hill fog as well. where you have got cloud the temperatures will hold up. quite a sharp frost to come and temperatures may be below —5 and six as wednesday begins. we will be scraping the eyes of the car, but there is a bit of sunshine to follow. some sunny breaks in eastern scotla nd follow. some sunny breaks in eastern scotland and north east england, but for many of us it will be another cloudy day. where you have got
cloud, the temperatures tend to hold up. the temperatures become fairly similaron up. the temperatures become fairly similar on thursday and friday and into the weekend. sunshine is at a premium, but with high pressure in control there is a lot of dry weather to come. hello. this is bbc news with jane hill and simon mccoy. the headlines at 4.30pm: the prime minister has made her first major speech outlining her strategy for leaving the eu, and announced that she wants britain to leave the single market after brexit. not partial membership of the european union, associate membership of the european union, or anything that leaves us half in, half out. scotland‘s first minister nicola sturgeon said a different future for scotla nd sturgeon said a different future for scotland now looks more likely. inflation hit its highest rate
since july 2014 last month as food prices and air fares rose. security at beach hotels in tunisia was criticised in a report for the british government — months before 38 people were killed in a terrorist attack. more on those stories to come. now, let‘s catch up with the sports news. 0lly foster has that. mp as we reported last week, alun wynjones will take over the wales captaincy from sam warburton. the interim head coach rob howley named his 36 man squad for next months six nations championship today and confirmed his skipper. jones has led the team five times before and also captained the lions in the final test against australia in 2013. the squad also includes seven uncapped players. warburton is still in the squad but the decision to take the captaincy off him was made so that he can concentrate
on his own game. he has skippered his country a record 49 times but has had some injury problems and has struggled forform. no one is guaranteed their position andi no one is guaranteed their position and i think that you know the one thing with alan wyn, he is the first name on the team sheet. when i spoke to sam, the talent we‘ve got in the back row, we just feel at this moment in time as a coaching team, that it moment in time as a coaching team, thatitis moment in time as a coaching team, that it is best for sam to concentrate on being the best that he can be to get his mojo back. bristol say there has been no wrongdoing despite sale sharks lodging a protest with the rfu that one of their own players passed on information to bristol ahead of their match on new year‘s day. tom arscott, seen here kicking the ball, has been suspended by sale who claim he had a conversation with his brother luke, a bristol player, on the eve of the match. bristol say nothing "of any sporting value" was discussed or passed on to their coaches but sale want
the rfu to investigate. we got a complaint from the senior players at the club that one of the players at the club that one of the players passed some information over before a game. i had to deal with it in the formal way really and by doing that, and setting up a disciplinary we had to inform the governing body. it is unprecedented in most sports. it is notjust by. in most sports. it is notjust rugby. there is a trust element that‘s been put in question by the players and they‘ve come to me with that. there are five british players through to the second round of the australian open for the first time in 30 years. johanna konta, heather watson and kyle edmund all came through overnight, konta, who is ranked ninth in the world, beat former wimbledon semi—finalist kirsten flipkens in straight sets. i am very happy to have come through that. if it was going to take two or three sets i was prepared to stay out as long as i needed to.
but again, it was a tough first set, there wasn‘t much in it, and i was just happy that i was able to put my foot on the pedal and really manage the difficulties the match presented. manchester city are considering an appeal against the severity of bacary sagna‘s fine for the comments he made on social medial. the fa has fined sagna £40,000 for questioning "the integrity of the match official". he posted "10 against 12". but still fighting and winning as a team", referee lee mason had sent off a city player during their 2—1 win against burnley. british athletics say they‘re confused as to why david weir has used social media to criticise them today. the six—time paralympic champion voiced his frustration with the governing body saying he doesn‘t want to race for his country again. weir wrote, "i have been let down again. today is the day i
officially retire from gb. i will never put a shirt on again. thanks british athletics. what a joke." he had already planned to retire after the london marathon in april. judd trump has been knocked out of the first round of the masters snooker tournament at the alexandra palace by marco fu. the world number was only won frame away from victory, but fu stormed back and clinched the deciding frame with a century break. he‘ll play mark allen next. that‘s all the sport. in four days time donald trump takes over the white house, becoming the 45th president of the united states. it marks the end of barak 0bama‘s eight years in the oval office. all this week, our correspondent, jon kay, is travelling along highway 45, gauging the country‘s mood. today, he‘s in chicago, illinois, where barak 0bama began his political career, and where people have been reflecting on the legacy he leaves behind.
right through the middle of donald trump‘s america. to get a sense of the country he‘s taking over. but our next stop is not trump territory. chicago. this is barack 0bama‘s favourite diner. he lived round the corner before he was president and he still comes back. he is humble. he is strong. taihitia is an 0bama fan. as a nurse, she likes the changes he made to health care, giving poorer people better access. she worries donald trump will overturn the reforms, hitting the most vulnerable. many of them will be very sick, can‘t get medicine. some of them will die. her son daniel thought having a black president would mean a more inclusive america. but he fears donald trump‘s brand of populism is
now encouraging division. i do feel my safety might be, you know, in danger. really? you feel more vulnerable now? i do, i do. in certain situations i do. post—trump? post—trump, yes. because it is something that you can see from the energy that trump built and the way that people express themselves who support trump. a lot of them have certain beliefs in things like that that do not align with my existence. some here do question the 0bama legacy and think change is overdue. aspiring businesswoman erika hopes donald trump will help people like her. i believe that he‘s going to open up doors for small business owners, hopefully, that‘s trying to create big businesses. like you? yes. maybe you will be as rich as donald trump in a few years? we head to the suburbs.
elgin, where nearly half the population is hispanic. donald trump‘s plans to build a giant wall along the mexican border mean many here cannot support him. never. but some views here may surprise you. rosa hopes a wall would help stop illegal immigrants. we have our own problems here in america, so... you know, to add more of them coming over here, i think... i don‘t think it‘s a good thing. and in the choir, margarita hopes donald trump will safeguard her pro—life catholic values. i‘m so excited and i‘m so happy for him. and we should not be afraid of anything, not even a wall or anything. it seems this hispanic community is split, just as america is split. and look where we are.
time to get back on route 45. theresa may has ruled out membership of the single market after britain leaves the european union. a lot of reaction. the director—general of the cbi says that britain must do all it can to prevent falling back. he said if any sectors are left behind in eu talks the knock—on effect for other sectors of the british economy are serious. that‘s from the director of the cbi. there has been reaction from scotland‘s first minister cho claimed that leaving the european single market would be economic catastrophe. she has been speaking to brian taylor. it is clear that theresa may wants
it take the uk off a hard brexit cliff edge. the direction she set todayis cliff edge. the direction she set today is not being driven by the rational best interests of the country. it is very clear it is being driven by the ob—serbings of ukip and the hard—right of her own party, it can be economically damaging to the uk and it is a direction she has no mandate for. the uk as a whole voted to come out of the eu, but i don‘t believe that there is a mandate to take the uk out of the single market, but unless the house of commons finds the gumption to remind her and stop taking the down that damaging route, it seems likely that the the uk is coming out of the single market. she said it was clear during the referendum debate the single market was on the table as an element to be discussed and debated and she said you couldn‘t have part in, part out. you couldn‘t have partial membership. you had to withdraw from
the single market? i think she is just rewriting history when she says the single market as opposed to the eu was on the ballot paper. she now wa nts to eu was on the ballot paper. she now wants to say that free movement were on the ballot paper, but the slogan that was across the side of the leave campaign‘s bus, £350 million a week extra for the nhs is cast aside and forgotten. i don‘t believe she has got a mandate for this direction of travel and there is a big question for the house of commons, are they going to stand up for the economic and the social interests of the uk and stop her taking the country down that road or are ne simply going to stand aside? i accept that the vote across the uk was to come out of the european union. but even leave voters, i don‘t believe, in the majority were voting to do economic self—harm to the country and that‘s what theresa may set the country on a path to today. the prime minister says there can bea today. the prime minister says there can be a glorious globalfuture? today. the prime minister says there can be a glorious global future7m
you listen to the prime minister‘s comments, she set out a long list of things that she would like to be the case in an ideal world, but she is about to enter a negotiation with 27 member states of the european union. all of whom will have their own interests and there will be a collective interest on the part of the eu to make sure that the interests of the eu are protected as well. that‘s the nature of negotiation. theresa may said that staying in the single market would mean accepting the eu‘s rules without having any say in making them. she stated that negotiating tariff—free trade with the eu is one of her top priorities. i know my emphasis on striking trade agreements with countries outside of europe led to questions about whether britain seeks to remain a member of the eu‘s customs union. and it is true that full customs
union membership prevents us from negotiating our own trade deals. now, i want britain to be able to negotiate its own trade agreements. but i also want tariff—free trade with europe and cross—border trade there to be as frictionless as possible. that means i do not want britain to be part of the common commercial policy and i do not want us commercial policy and i do not want us to be bound by the common external tariff. these are the elements of the customs union that prevent us from striking our own comprehensive trade agreements with other countries. so the prime minister has confirmed that britain will leave the single market, and wants a different relationship with what‘s known as the european customs union. but what exactly does that mean? 0ur economics correspondent, andy verity, explains. we sell more goods and services to the other 27 members of the european union than to anywhere else. it is oui’ union than to anywhere else. it is our biggest trading partner, not least because it is our closest trading partner with nearly half of
oui’ trading partner with nearly half of our exports going to eu member countries. if you are a british exporter, it is obvious what the single market means, whatever you make in the uk, you can sell anywhere in the eu, no member country can block you. that‘s free movement of goods. you can also invest capital anywhere and any member country can invest in your country, member states promise not to block that either. and in theory at least you have free movement of services and more controversially, free movement of people. the fear is, if we leave the single market, oui’ is, if we leave the single market, our exporters won‘t be able to sell as much to our main trading partner so the economy will grow more slowly. now, there will be a similar effect if we left the customs union. well, before the eu, countries used to try to stop cheap imports under cutting their own industries especially with high value goods like cars. they would slap a tariff on, a form of tax, to make the goods more expensive. under the customs union, members of the eu agree to scrap tariffs on each others goods,
if we exit the customs union, the ta riffs if we exit the customs union, the tariffs might come back, making our car exports less competitive of the that‘s one reason the pound dropped shortly after the referendum. you can see it there because of fears we would export lessment the pound lost a fifth of its value and that started to drive up prices. with me to discuss this liam halligan, economist and co—author of the report, clean brexit and sam lowe from friends of the earth. welcome to both. liam you must be pleased with what you heard from theresa may today?” pleased with what you heard from theresa may today? i don't speak for the government. it was an imaginative and yet realistic speech, i thought, imaginative and yet realistic speech, ithought, it imaginative and yet realistic speech, i thought, it was quite tough, but emollient at the same time. i think it is a good thing that britain has ruled out staying
in the single market. the economic benefits i think of which have been exaggerated over many years and discriminates against smaller firms and as for the customs union, being in the customs union has lots of drawbacks, the tariff makes a lot of our imports into the eu more expensive and we can‘t cut our own trade deals. 0verall, expensive and we can‘t cut our own trade deals. overall, it was on balance a good speech. sam, your thoughts. i'm worried about the fact that we're going to be leaving the single market. ithink that we're going to be leaving the single market. i think the that we're going to be leaving the single market. ithink the eu is our most important trading partner and the idea that we can compensate for lost trade with the eu through other trade agreements to me isjust not true. the long—term analysts, long—term assessment by the treasury for us leaving the eu at its lowest, as its most conciliatory level was 3.8% drop in long—term gdp, the best we can hope for from a trade
agreement with the us that i have seenis agreement with the us that i have seen is an increase in 0.35%, we're just, itjust seen is an increase in 0.35%, we're just, it just compute, seen is an increase in 0.35%, we're just, itjust compute, what i'd like to see going forward is a prioritisation of our relationship with the european union. 0k, we're going to leave the single market, that's what we've been told, but we need to focus on making sure we have the closest, most integrated relationship possible. this takes us back to the arguments people were having in the run—up to the referendum. are those figures something that you just don‘t recognise? why do you feel optimistic and other people can‘t or won't? sam is right. that's what the treasury said, but of course the treasury, the bank of england, they have admitted to a michael fish moment where theyjust got their numbers wrong. probably, let‘s be honest because a lot of political pressure was put on economists in the treasury to come up with the right answer. i am a professional economist, i know these things happen. america is outside the single market. america exported $259
billion of goods and services into the eu in the first 11 months last year. some of the goods and services attracted a small low single digit tariff and we can do the same. similarly, we have, you have trade that goes on around the world outside explicit trade deals. america and europe don‘t have a trade deal. eu and china don‘t have a trade deal. america and china don‘t have a trade deal and those three blocks and the trade between them is the bulk of world trade, jane. someone saying that it is an illusion that britain can have the advantages of the single market? illusion that britain can have the advantages of the single market7m that a story? is that really... he says there will be obligations. that a story? is that really... he says there will be obligationsm that really newsworthy? does he make afair point? that really newsworthy? does he make a fair point? there will be obligations. it is well and good to say the us trades with the eu. that ignores the fact that we are heavily integrated into the european market.
0ur companies are already heavily integrated. there are supply chains taking advantage of the current scenario, we keep hearing about global britain. we are explicitly withdrawing from a relationship that is conducive to trade and so when i hear all this, i get a little bit confused and to hear, it is great, we can have a trade agreement with these people and we can get a trade agement with ghana. i'm sorry, that's not going to make up for what we're losing out on. there is a point about time scale. this is going to take a very, very long time, isn‘t it? going to take a very, very long time, isn't it? maybe i wasn't very clear, but the point i tried to make in my report with gerald lyons and just right now, yes, trade deals are good, but you don't have to have trade deals. trade deals are pumped up trade deals. trade deals are pumped up by trade deals. trade deals are pumped up by the media or politicians as being... there is a long—term trend
around the world of tariffs and barriers coming down. there is a time stipulation here, but again, we don't need to be channelled into a two year window. we don't have to have a trade deal with the eu by the end of this two year article 50 window and to cut one within two years when there are so many other things to be arranging, i agree with sam on that, there is lots of arrangements to make, it would mean we would probably get a bad deal. we can cut a trade deal in our own time and in the meantime, we can trade under wto rulesjust and in the meantime, we can trade under wto rules just as and in the meantime, we can trade under wto rulesjust as most and in the meantime, we can trade under wto rules just as most world trade around the globe happens under wto rules. sam, is it fair to say transitional arrangements are vitalment businesses need to plan and they need some interim?” vitalment businesses need to plan and they need some interim? i think they are essential. where i would agree a free trade agreement isn‘t a good thing by virtue. where i would disawe greed is the idea we can fall
back on to wto terms and it will be fine. if we are to leave the single market and to have a new trade trade arrangement with the european union, we need to give it the time it needs and the time it requires to make the best of it. if that requires transitional arrangements so be it. that‘s a good idea. transitional arrangements so be it. that's a good idea. liam, it's going to work, it will work? look, there are still big dangers facing the british economy. the western world is addicted to printed money. there is addicted to printed money. there is still, you know, we have got a protectionist coming into the white house. all these things are causes for concern. all these things could rile financial markets in the next few months and years, but i really don't think brexit is a blot on the british economic landscape. we need to get beyond the sense that we need to get beyond the sense that we need to make the worst of a bad job with brexit. 88% of the world economy is outside the european union. and we have tremendous links there and we
can trade with the rest of the world. it is much faster growing than we are. that's where we need prosperity for our children and grandchildren. thank you very much indeed. the nigerian air force killed 100 civilians by accident in an air strike against islamist militant group, boko haram. members of medecins sans frontieres were among the wounded. the defence spokesman for nigeria said the accidental bombing has been confirmed, he said, these kind of mistakes do happen in an operational zone. latest reports suggest more than 100 people have been killed. we will get more business reaction now. let‘s get today‘s business news now. our business correspondent vishala sri—pathma is in the city for us, at the stockbroking firm peel hunt.
i‘m here at peel hunt. lots of traders have packed up and gone home because we‘re nearing the end of the trading day. someone who hasn‘t gone home is charles hall he is head of research here. we‘re going to talk about sterling. sterling has been the story of the day. it is up 3%. how significant is that rise and what‘s been driving that? has that been because we have got more clarity that we are going to leave the single market? really, it is about the fact that the speech was well lea ked about the fact that the speech was well leaked in advance and so the reality was that sterling was weak in the build up to today and it has recovered a little bit, it is a certainty coming in the currency traders can see what is happening and it is no surprise it has recovered lost ground. 0k, and it is no surprise it has recovered lost ground. ok, so overall, since the referendum result, if sterling is lower and this morning we got data on inflation and inflation higher than
expected, 1.6%, higher than the inflation and inflation higher than expected, 1.6%, higherthan the 1.4% predicted, that sterling feeding into the inflation rates? that's right, yes, but it is notjust the lowest sterling, we are also seeing a number of prices rising across the different markets, energy prices are rising so higher oil price, food prices are rising. so sterling is exacerbating the increases in prices that are coming through. i‘m sure a lot of retailers will be thinking post—christmas, now is the time to start pushing through price increases. we should expect inflation to carry on increasing. does it put pressure on the bank of england, mark carney gave a speech last night. he didn‘t really hint on what he was going to do. he said interest rates might go up or down, will it put pressure on him to raise rates by the end of the year?” don‘t think that‘s the case, with all the brexit talk going on, there will be more focus on keeping the economy moving, consumers are under pressure, they don‘t want to put
them under more pressure by raising interest rates and having a lower currency is helpful and if interest rates were to rise, that would probably strengthen sterling and lose some of the gains that exporters have achieved over the last few months. 0k, exporters have achieved over the last few months. ok, let's finish on a bit of company news, rolls—royce, the uk courts approved a settlement that they were facing over bribery, us and uk bribery cases, it was over £260 million. yes, so this was a very big fine. so the sfo have imposed a large cash sum... that's the serious fraud office. the serious fraud office and that‘s going to be painfulfor rolls—royce, but it is a long—standing case. five yea rs but it is a long—standing case. five years it has been running and i think the market has looked at it and it is good news because now rolls—royce can look forward and put this episode behind them. charles hall thank you very much. that‘s it from us here in the city. back to you in the studio, jane. now if you‘re a little scared
of alligators or crocodiles, these next pictures may not be for you. tourists in florida filmed this enormous alligator taking a leisurely stroll in a wildlife reserve near tampa. not surprisingly, no one got too close to measure its exact length. but the alligator was given a name — humpback. you wouldn‘t be laughing if you saw it, would you ? time for a look at the weather. it is misty. there is low cloud and hill fog around too and temperatures have been struggling under this cloudy zone through parts of the midlands and into south—east wales, south—west england. despite the sunshine in south—east england today, some spots have been one or two celsius. a hard frost setting in across south—east england and east anglia overnight in the countryside. elsewhere, you keep the cloud. temperatures hold up compared with
south—eastern parts and there is a chance for getting patchy rain and drizzle out of the cloud and into tomorrow and mist and murk and hill fog around. some spots brightening up fog around. some spots brightening up tomorrow. parts of eastern scotla nd up tomorrow. parts of eastern scotland and north—east england and some spots into southern anglia as well. a range of temperatures. they are higher, the further north—west you are in the uk. still mild for the time of year. tomorrow, across parts of the western and northern isles, there is the chance of rain. temperatures get closer together from thursday and into the weekend. plenty of cloud, but despite that dry weather with high pressure in control and that‘s how it‘s looking at the moment. today at five: the prime minister spells out her strategic goals for taking britain out of the european union. in a long—awaited speech, mrs may says britain will leave the single market, seek new trade agreements, and control immigration. while i am sure a positive agreement
can be reached, i am equally clear that no deal is better than a bad dealfor britain. parliament will get a vote on the final brexit deal, but labour says the approach involved "enormous dangers". she has said leave the single market, and at the same time says she wants to have access to the single market. i'm not sure how that will go down in europe. in scotland, the first minister accuses theresa may of taking the extreme option. it is clear she wants to