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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  January 22, 2017 2:30am-3:01am GMT

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the former leader of the gambia, yahya jammeh, has flown out of the country, paving the way for his successor to return from exile. mrjammeh‘s decision to leave ends a standoff which began when he refused to accept defeat in the presidential election. now it's time for dateline london. hello, and welcome to dateline london. two stories dominate the week and are likely to dominate the year ahead too. the beginnings of the trump presidency and the beginning of the end for britain in the european union. my guests today arejohn fisher burns of the new york times, thomas kielinger of die welt, polly toynbee of the guardian and dmitry shishkin
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of bbc world service. donald trump first, and as he begins the job of being 45th president of the united states, to paraphrase a question from the presidential debates, let's start by saying something nice, positive or hopeful about the new president. this is going to and stretch for you, but have a go! after that inaugural speech in which he reached out to nobody at all, in which he trashed all of the previous presidents sitting around him very politely, i think the only thing we can seriously hope for is that this meglomaniac will overreach himself to such a degree that he will be impeached as soon as possible, hopefully before that four years is up. and that he will simply be removed. he is utterly unfit to be president of the united states and i think we saw that writ large in his speech which was the most outrageously ungracious speech i think probably any president has ever made at an inauguration. john, i challenge to you do
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a bit better than that, just a possibility here! um... well, there was very little for anybody who is not an american in that speech. there was very little for the people who have felt that american presidents in the last 30 or 40 years have achieved significant things. but i think if we look at what he's promising for america, rebuilding the infrastructure of america, bringing jobs back to america, these are going to be df things to do. it's not clear where the infrastructure he is going to find the money. anybody who has travelled through america, particularly anybody who has travelled through the ohio valley will know that an attempt, a serious attempt to bring jobs back, to rebuild american industries is long overdue. therefore, to sum that up
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in a slogan put america first, there is another context in the 1930s, but to say in the 21st century i am going to put america first that strikes home, doesn't it? it has, of course some pretty ominous overtones for anybody who knows american history, including it in the 20th century. isolationism and protectionism then. the adjectives rolled out here in the press and the last few days about trump, it's hard to disagree on the basis of what we saw in the campaign with very much of it. but on the other hand, 63 million people, maybe 66 million people voted for hillary clinton, but 63 million people themselves and many of them are far from being crass, vulgar bullies, they found something in trump that persuaded them that he would change the course of america to their benefit. i think it's far too soon to conclude they were wrong.
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thomas, you have covered — been based in washington and seen inaugurals, the first inaugural of ronald reagan was greeted in britain and europe with perhaps not the same amount of dismay but there were a lot of headlines saying he is just an actor which was not true because he had eight years as governor of california. this perception continued throughout his years. in europe you could never get a set of opinion to understand america is doing from our way of politics and reagan comes straight from the bone marrow of american identity and he was to be a great president. nobody recognised that really until today. there is not a single street in germany that says reagan street or reagan plaza although he was the guy who said tear
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down this wall. i totally agree with the nature of his speech with polly. that leads to a positive conclusion, that he will unite, not americans so much because he didn't do much to do that in his speech, but unite europe. nato will begin to understand that something needs to be done to do better than they have so far. it will also cause minds to pause in the brexit debate. i don't think eu and britain can afford to go down the route into trade wars. we are going to have to watch our trade relations with america. that might lead to a unifying amongst europeans and in relation to britain, so it will have a positive effect on the brexit debate, i am sure. president putin is hoping to talk to trump sometime soon, i take it the russian response has been in so far as we can read it positive? in the bbc interview the press secretary of putin yesterday said
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they would go and celebrate the russian christian holiday yesterday rather than watch the inaugural address. however, what we know is potentially what russian television has been saying and the positive thing is they call him the man of his word and that's interesting in itself. politicians generally say they don't know what is going to happen really because there is nothing to say anything concrete about his policies moving forward but what they are definitely saying because the tide is changing, they think actually making trump think about america only is actually good for russia because it means that russia can come and again start asserting it can go and again start asserting its influence. in the look at the wish list it's
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not going to be dissimilar to trump's possible agenda. maybe apart from middle east where syria is one thing but actually long—term middle east strategy for russia and america are quite different. it was also said that there can't be real progress in syria without the americans, in other words, the possibility of some deal with a deal—maker. precisely. i guess this is exactly right about nato but i think even if america withdraws itself from different types of bodies, from world bank, imf, un, this is all actually positive, will be seen positive in moscow. i thought one of the first casualties of trump's vision for america is his hope for improved relationships with russia and putin and the fact that he's appointed, for example, as secretary of defence and he is not alone, amongst the cabinet nominees, somebody who takes a much tougher line on russia. it's indicative and it won't be very long before trump and putin fall out.
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you are right. that's why i think the current feeling in moscow is the feeling of let's wait and see what will happen because actually i wouldn't actually be surprised by hearing on the russian television moving forward that trump is our guy, he is good, he really means well but he is surrounded by the establishment and the hawks of washington won't allow him. i think what we see is two rather similar and perhaps impulsive characters. i think the idea that they're going to somehow make great friendship, it will take very little, there is a tinder box, it will take little for either to take great offence at something the other one does. the possibility of friction seems much greater than the idea of this — unless of course it is true he is totally in putin's hands and he has blackmail material and all of that, but leaving that aside. i would agree and also say they're both people —
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actually for putin to be seen alone with trump in this kind of russia—us really important summit is an important thing. interesting this choreography, if there is a summit. people within the reagan administration said the president tried to give away all nuclear weapons. afterwards people thought what was wrong about that? is this possible to dream that kind of thing? the dream continues, i am sure quite rightly but the way reagan went about it without consulting with his allies was totally negative. mind you, reagan started as far as russia is concerned with that famous statement in the first press conference the day after he was inaugurated when he was asked what do you think about the soviet union, he said they lie, they cheat and want to conquer the world. for trump to give putin so much of the benefit of the doubt already saying you can trust him when russia has to reearn its trust after all that happened recently with the olympics, drugs scandals and interfering in american debates,
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so to come out with this statement to trust putin, he says i trust putin as much as i trust angela merkel. which is a juxtaposition of outrageous proportions. it didn't go down well in germany. in terms of what you think he might do if he does spend a lot of money somehow domesticically and rebuilding infrastructure which just about anybody thinks needs rebuilt, where is the money going to come from, but also he has to persuade congress. isn't one of the big, it may not be as obvious as foreign policy to people in europe
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and around the world but he has to deal with people in congress who are in the republican party who have power and some of whom don't like him. the question is will they be close to him because he is the president and they have to be seen to be or will they look at the next election which is in two years as far as they're concerned and say not sure? many years i spent in china, the chinese government, when asked a question they didn't want to answer, the situation remains to be determined. this certainly, there are so many uncertainties we can not know. it seems one plain point of friction is going to be money. on the one hand trump has talked about doing something about this huge multitrillion dollar deficit. on the other hand he wants to build up the armed forces on which the united states is already spending the best part of $700 billion a year. now he wants to rebuild american — where is the money coming from? it has to come via congress. congress, we know republicans are very loath to spend money. i think it's going to be a lot of conflict there. it's interesting how
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little he was scrutinised. what's been extraordinary about this election is that any normal election, a presidential candidate would have to answer that question. you are going to cut taxes and spend hugely on armed forces, huge amount on infrastructure, you are going to save working class america, where are the tax cuts coming? they're all for the rich, not for the poor. how does he square any of that? nobody ever got to force him to answer those. i think there are more dissimilarities between trump and reagan. one obvious dissimilarity is that reagan was a charming individual. even his political opponents found him a likeable individual. it seems to me that's not the case with trump. in terms of his relationships with congress that may prove to be another difficulty. could i suggest one thing that — one strong positive you may dislike
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is that he is a great communicator. people will look at the speech and so on but to people he needs to contact or communicate with, the use of twitter which is just a thing that's said and is republished, that's one of the reasons why he wasn't scrutinised in the way you suggest because he was able to say in 140 characters make america great again and people thought that's a great idea. yeah, the twitter has been brilliant. he is plainly going to go on with it, all day and all night tweeting away. it means that he doesn't get challenged or questioned. he puts it out there to his own followers. that works very well. i think that's a frightening lesson for modern politicians. listening to that rather dull inaugural speech yesterday, it was indeed written by donald trump. he said he was going to eradicate islamic terror, that's going to be
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a difficultjob, but setting a tone that is something he can clearly work with moscow on. as you remember, the relationship between russia or soviet union and the west always were — they were constructive on anything to do with nuclear missile treaties, irrespect yaf of how bad the relationship were in early 80s, they still were able to go and do something on the missiles. in terms of the co—operation between the secret services, definitely post—9/ii when putin was the first to call bush and he was proud of that, he has suggested his help and this will continue definitely. let's just not make mistakes about why, what aims put isn't trying to achieve in the middle east or anywhere else and others because obviously as i was referring to the wish list, the wish list goes much further than that. there is a question about ukraine and georgia and notjoining nato, we were — this is this legend, nobody knows whether it is true, whether it was promised not a single country in europe would join nato after reunification of germany.
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there is mixed stories about whether this happened. here the same thing. i think i agree with you, if they hit it off it will be really fabulous relationship between them two for the next whatever years. but it's hard. the difference is that putin has a plan. i don't think trump has a plan at all. he has tweets, an emotive... i don't think he knows where georgia is. in a post—truth, quite tired phrase already, but in a world where people believe with their hearts and react with their hearts, rather than their minds, we are talking about scrutiny. we as journalists are interested in that sort of thing. but i guess societies in large around the world probably are going towards the fact of that different thing. there are some other obvious problems. for instance, iran is a de facto ally in the middle east with russia and iran is one of the bogeymen
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donald trump has threatened to change relations with. so that's definitely one of the questions they are not going to be comfortable talking about. i also would say in the middle east, if america, obviously, sides with saudi arabia, russia clearly with iran, so that's the biggest issue. when all's said and done on relations with the rest of the world, the most important is the white house's relationship with congress. no wonder we call congress the other arm of government. that is essential. he can't do anything unless he strikes an emollient or tolerant relationship with congress. carter was a case in point. he had a majority of his own party in congress in his four years but he was constantly bogged down by fighting his own people in congress. he couldn't make headway in international relations because he couldn't make peace with congress. so it's essential that congress and trump will get on. i am not sure they will.
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the tweeting mis—culture or whatever you call it is a terrible juvenile habit of his to be pursuing. i wish he'd become a tweet—totaller as well as a teetotaller. he communicates with people who will not listen to white house speeches. it communicates with a lot of people, which is one of the reasons he's been so successful. he doesn't read anything himself. he says he hasn't got time. all he can read is tweets. he assumes all his followers read tweets. he overpromises, though. that speech was full of overpromising and he raised expectations in a wild sort of fashion, which congress soon will shoot down, i am sure. and we should remember macmillan's dictum about "eve nts, dear boy, events". you can imagine any number of events. some events that may be forthcoming may be unimaginable. indeed, the events of 2016 were unimaginable a year ago.
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it could knock, for example, trump's ambition to establish closer relationships with putin. and what if there is friction on the borders with russia and estonia and lithuania. how long would that detente last? we don't know that. if he is so convinced he needs to concentrate on the rust belt and building factories and whatever, then he said that america first and potentially, you know, estonia... at the end of the queue. i want to come on to queues about trade and other things. theresa may made clear her plans for brexit this week — or she didn't. britain out of the single market was clear enough but she said if we don't get a deal, britain is prepared to walk away. so what might that mean? and how is mrs may's clarity or otherwise viewed around the world? first of all, we will get to the trade talks with the head of the queue, back of the queue, whatever, but in germany, when people heard what mrs may had
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to say, was it much clearer what britain is aiming for? well, it's very hard for germans to understand the way the british mind ticks. still to this day, they don't understand how a nation, a member of the eu can even conceive of leaving it. this notion of the island nation going for the global, sort of, horizon is totally strange to their way of thinking. we are in the middle of europe, surrounded with nothing but friends at the moment, thank goodness, and we need to be collectively involved. and for britain to go it alone... they struggle to understand it but i keep reminding them, shakespeare's first theatre was called the globe. there is a tendency, a tradition in english thinking, like seafaring nations reach out beyond the immediate continent and neighbourhood. other than that, though, they think they will look at it rationally and the arrival of trump on the scene, as i said before, gives me hope that the two sides, the eu and britain will come together at a workable
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sort of solution. there is no advantage to be gained from going into a trade war sort of mindset between the eu and great britain. while you have to be careful not to make it too easy for britain to leave it, because that would bring up copycat mentalities in other european nations, who might say, "ok, we can also leave it". that's probably is again, an unofficial hope from within the kremlin. basically starting an avalanche for the same trends in other countries. geert wilders, marine le pen, alternative for deutschland, other countries have their own... yes and also, the relationship between eu and russia always subject to this axis of south and north. southern countries were more pro—russian, northern countries... i am generalising here. but you definitely have greece and some former eastern bloc countries...
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now you have le pen part—financed by the russians. yes, that's another thing. but if you look at probably the britain leaving the european union is out of the public debate in russia, just not an issue. it's irrelevant? completely. regular russians would say "i wish we had your problems", generally, that would be one way of looking at it. other people would say, "good for you, we all know how bad the european union is and go and do it alone because you are a great country". do you think we got clarity this week? absolutely not. we got some fairly ill—intent in the idea she would say, "we are leaving the single market and the customs union but somehow, we are going to have some magical deal which is just as good as being inside", when the response right across europe, whether it was in brussels or individual capitals was, "you can't do that, you are either in or out. there is no way in which you are going to have a better deal. you will not have to pay in, you will not have to accept freedom of movement..."
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and then of course, this global fantasy. it was extraordinary, sort of, empire talk. she has an elizabeth i fantasy, apparently. she sees herself in this role. we will travel the world in our little ships and have these wonderful trade deals. if we want a trade deal with india, for instance, they will demand a lot more visas. now, a lot of the impetus against europe was also an anti—asian, anti—islamic feeling about immigration, as much as it was anti—poles or hungarians. i don't think people are going to tolerate the idea we have to have a lot more people from india in order to have an indian deal. the idea we are going to have a good deal with trump... trump will make a deal. i interviewed him in 1988, read his appalling book, the art of the deal. he always comes out on top, the other guy is always screwed, that's the way you do it. any deal between us and america means we have to accept their hormone, antibiotic—infused meat, their regulations, not eu regulations. the moment we do that,
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then we cut ourselves off even more from europe, because we are not accepting european regulations. i have said this on this programme before, i think a lot of of the discussion about brexit and where it is going to carry us is conducted as if we live in a rather static kind of world. europe right now is not in a static condition. we know the forthcoming elections in france, indeed in germany and in italy can radically change the europe that theresa may is negotiating with. not to mention the italian banking system and many other economic factors. i wouldn't be surprised if, within the precincts of 10 downing street, mrs may is actually quite pleased at the possibility of delay in invoking article 50, because the further she can push these negotiations into the era of the emerging europe, the europe where there could be a referendum in europe, for example, and in italy and in france, which could very easily go the same way as ours did
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and i think we might, a year from now... alas, it won't be delayed. you hear labour, most labour people, a few rebels, corbyn saying "we are going to sign it". the lib dems won't, but she will get it through, i am afraid. the other point of clarity, polly, with due respect, i felt it was clear in one aspect. she's willing to go for brinkmanship with europe. she has a way of taking both sides to ransom. "if you don't agree with me, we have another way of becoming a different country". that's a reasonable negotiating tactic. expect it's such a terrible prospect. she wants us to be a singapore, a bargain basement, lowest possible tax... we would be cutting off our own nose to spite our face if we did that. i agree, and the impossibility of her suggestion of course strikes you immediately, because there's so many circles to square, as it were.
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one thing is, where is the money? we talk about money in the trump case. where does she get the money for the social reforms she promised? i think that the uk goes into these negotiations with quite a few advantages. to cite only one, how many bmws are sold in this country every year? 265,000, i think. so where is german industry, the motor industry going to be on this issue? they certainly don't want to drive the uk into some sort of high—tariff isolation. it's holding europe to ransom on that account. this is a very important point. the germans and the rest of europe, like us, are less motivated by economics when it comes to the crunch than by principle, and their principles about europe will be stronger, just as ours were.
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we have done ourselves terrible economic harm for the sake of a fantasy belief in our great independence. have we done ourselves tremendous harm? we don't know. it's likely. so far, all the prognostications are good. but it hasn't happened yet. we haven't done anything yet. we are not out. but markets are all predictive. the markets seem to have decided this is a do—able thing. from somebody who came to this country about 16 years ago, i can say that i can feel that actually, internationally, globally, britain as a country where english is spoken, part of europe will still be extremely interesting for people from asia to come and do business with, from south asia, east asia, russia, other countries, africa, as well. there is something culturally and something existentially that britain will remain a big magnet. a large part of that is our relationship with the united states and the fact that we have a common language and, to some considerable extent, a common culture. we will have to leave it there. that's it for dateline london for this week. you can comment on the programme on twitter and engage with our guests. we're back next week
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at the same time. please make a date with dateline london. goodbye. well, for many of us quite a frosty one out there and it will be a frosty start to sunday morning. you can see where the frost is, that blue on the weather map. these are the 50 cents and temperatures and in rural areas it will be much colder than that. minus seven degrees in a couple of areas. thing on sunday morning, of these western parts of the uk will have some cloud or maybe a spot all two of drizzle and snow
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across the hills of wales, maybe parts of scotland as well and may be mist and fog there through the lowlands. for the bulk of the country, another beautiful and sunny as we head into monday and tuesday morning in particular it will be a major problem for some of us. we spread fog, freezing fog so stay tuned because it could be very dense indeed on monday and tuesday. welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in america and across the globe. my name's gavin grey. our top stories: president trump praises the intelligence community, denying a feud with them, accusing the media of making it up. as you know, i have a running war with the media they are among the most dishonest human beings on earth. huge crowds take to the streets of the united states and cities across the world to protest against the new trump administration. in other news: the man who led
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the gambia for two decades has left the country, ending weeks of political crisis. and brazilian riot police have used shipping containers to separate rival gangs inside a prison after fighting left 26 inmates dead.
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