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tv   The Election Wrap  BBC News  May 19, 2017 7:30pm-8:01pm BST

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hello and welcome to the election wrap, our guide to all the election news of the day. the conservative leader in scotland gives a frosty reception to the means testing of the winter fuel allowance, leaving it out of their manifesto north of the border. will tactical voting swing it forfor one of the major this election? catchphrases and slogans — they might work for comedians, but are they working for the political parties? have these phrases seeped into your brain yet? it isa it is a choice between strong and sta ble it is a choice between strong and stable leadership under the conservatives. britain needs strong and stable government. for the many, not the few. for the many, not the few. and we'll be discussing all the best campaign lines with paul waugh, executive editor at huff post uk and kate proctor, political reporter from the evening standard.
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let's catch up on the latest developments from the campaign trail. the conservatives in scotland have launched their manifesto with the leader of the tories ruth davidson, and the prime minister theresa may making a pledge to stand up to the scottish national party. part of the manifesto was a protection for the winter fuel payments for all older people, with no means—testing in scotland, unlike the policy for england. we made a different choice in scottish manifesto we believe there should be means testing. the reason we have said that if as many of your viewers will acknowledge, scotland isa viewers will acknowledge, scotland is a colder climate than we have a different amount of housing stock and evolution allows you to make different decisions. i want to use the money in terms of the winter fuel payments, dance out my collea g u es fuel payments, dance out my colleagues want to put it into the
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health service. that is what politics are about, sometimes it is tough decisions. i say i want to keep the winter fuel payment here, devolution allows me to do so. we have devolution in the united kingdom. we have given the scottish government significant powers in relation to welfare and they make a numberof relation to welfare and they make a number of decisions about various welfare benefits in scotland. the decision we have made about winter fuel payment is, we will continue to ensure the least well off pensioners are supported, but there is a principle of earners where you see well of pensioners getting help with their fuel bills and struggling, ordinary families not having the help available. the money released from the change in the winter fuel payment will go into health and social care. meanwhile labour have attacked the policy of means testing the winter fuel allowance. calling it sick and sneaky. john mcdonnell said ten million people would be hit by tory proposals to means—test the allowance. labour, says axing the policy could mean people die. yesterday the conservative party
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abandoned older people. there was a triple whammy. they‘ re abandoned older people. there was a triple whammy. they're tearing up of the triple lock, the attack on the winter fuel allowance and yes, the plans on care costs where people could lose control of their homes. john mcdonnell verve. the snp say that the conservatives would priortise a "hard brexit" over protecting scottish jobs. the parties deputy leader angus robertson said that theresa may came to scotland to deliver one simple message, "to get back in their box". and it's been a difficult 2a hours for ukip. their leader paul nuttall had been due to visit london and essex..but due to visit london and essex but both campaign trips were cancelled after an incident with the party's battle bus. and the ukip leader had something of a bumpy ride during the itv leader's debate when he struggled to remember leanne wood's name. do you think they will stay there?
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of course not. 6500 well—paid jobs in wales you are prepared to lose. think natalie is absolutely right. my think natalie is absolutely right. my name is leanne. you have done it twice now. we need to fully integrate health care and social care. 0h integrate health care and social care. oh dear, there were some smiles, but how embarrassingly. so let's begin with scotland and this difference of views about the winter fuel allowance. paul and kate with me. does it matter the conservatives are taking two different lines on this? absolutely, i was so surprised. it shows how keen they are to get this tory vote in scotland. they are
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ahead with the over 60s in scotland, the tories are ahead in the over 60 polling. but they felt they needed something to bring people in and bring them over. i am astonished they announced this today, it feels like such hypocrisy. theresa may was talking about devolution and today she was talking about devolution when it suits her and the rest of the time she doesn't want to talk about it at all. paul, ruth davidson saying it is called in scotland so it is different, horses for courses. if you live in cumbria, you might think it is quite cold in winter. there might be descents from english voters, a sense of resentment. but is what theresa may doesn't want. she has been trying to make sure it isa she has been trying to make sure it is a united kingdom and she stands for the whole of the country. but on day two after their manifesto lodge, they have a pension problem. not just the winter fuel, but social ca re just the winter fuel, but social care and this so—called dementia
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tax. you could tell today they are worried because david davies went on the bbc to try and attack the line. in the manifesto yesterday they talked about focusing help on the least well off when it came to the winter fuel allowance. today, they are saying they will only take money from those who can afford it. in the middle, you have people who are very worried. we will stay with scotland... well the drop in the price of oil has affected aberdeen's economy. recent months have brought signs of a recovery but what do people there think. 0ur reporter nick eardley has been to the aberdeen north constituency to find out. city synonymous with oil and gas uk an industry which brought wealth and jobs, but after a slump in the price of oil, some have been left struggling. like here, this foodbank is one of nearly a0 in aberdeen and is one of nearly a0 in aberdeen and is getting busier. a lot more now.
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it is kept going by volunteers like dougie and robert and they sell items to locals. the foodbank varies between 20 to 25, up to a0 to 50 individuals coming in on a daily basis. this time last year we were doing between 80 to 100 food parcels ina doing between 80 to 100 food parcels in a week. we can now do up to 150 food parcels a week. he blames welfare changes for rising demand. it is to do with the £20,000 benefit on families which stops them claiming anything in excess of £20,000 a year. it has reduced payments for people and the amount of disposable income they have got. we travelled along union street in aberdeen and spoke to a local business owner. has been a difficult time over the last three years. not getting customers as regularly as we used to. anything what he would like? dean walker is annexed verve.
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he is retraining oil and gasworks is to cut hair. we are notjust relying on the oil and asset to and knowing how vulnerable it can be and quickly it can change. how is business to you? it has been fantastic. would you? it has been fantastic. would you say the economy is working to you? absolutely. on the foodbank, those views about diversification are echoed, butjohn is less ha p py less happy about the future. and here is the full list of candidates standing in the aberdeen north constituency. let's return to scotland with our
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guests. we got a flavour from one pa rt guests. we got a flavour from one part of scotland about the economy and local issues, but we are being told that crucial to the vote in scotla nd told that crucial to the vote in scotland is the issue of whether there will be a second independence referendum for scotland. how do you unpick this, kate? the tories were clever, they pushed it towards the snp and said, you have to allow brexit to bed in and then you can have your referendum. but it pushes them back onto them and the snp have to choose the opportune timing. i just want to point out that theresa may and ruth davidson when they were speaking, talked about the snp as nationalists and nothing rouse them more than being called nationalists. i thought it was a strong line to come out with and with their strong and stable, all about dealing and then the snp who they are trying to
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frame as this unwieldy bunch. we had this phrase from the conservatives saying there needs to be public consent for any second independence referendum. we haven't had a definition of what it might mean? no, and that is why the snp will keep pushing it. you have both sides trying to exploit the independent idea. they say they are obsessed with the constitution and exception of bread—and—butter economies and the oil economy. when you have the snp pushing hard saying we are against a hard brexit. for the voters, where you stand on brexit or not, may not be the determining factor in this election. there may be other issues and they might take offe nce be other issues and they might take offence at both parties trying to ram this down their throats. the oil economy in aberdeen, in the tory manifesto yesterday, was this idea that britain's north sea will be
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decommissioned in future years. all these oil rigs could be a world ce ntre these oil rigs could be a world centre the decommissioning oil rigs. it isa centre the decommissioning oil rigs. it is a brand—new idea from the conservatives. you have these voters in scotland who don't want to leave, but they don't want to vote tory. what happens to them? they are facing a difficult choice. it will be interesting to see how it plays out in scotland. smaller political parties can occasionally cause a tremor on the political landscape. especially when the race is tight, and a few hundred votes can make all the difference. so just how much tactical voting is going on this election. here's nina warhurst. the weekly community cook at the marsh centre, run by green councillors who are popular with eight of them on lancaster city council. they work and live here, they are very well liked. they do a lot for charity and they said they would do something, they usually get it done. when it comes to the
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general election, the local green voter doesn't always translate, why is it? it is a waste of time, they think. they think they will get enough votes or theyjust don't bother. and that is the problem with the greens here. labour won lancaster and feet would a tiny margin last time. do they go with their hearts and help the conservatives win, or do the greens vote and get labour in? this is a marginal constituency so it is only between labour and the tories. if we vote green, we hand the seat to the tories, as we did a few years ago. and we regret that. i am still wrestling between the green, who i wa nt wrestling between the green, who i want to vote for and labour, which is the tactical vote. sometimes that decision is batted away. when greens are keen to block a conservative when they pull out of the race,
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asking supporters to swing to labour 01’ asking supporters to swing to labour or the lib dems. if the greens stand down, those voters have got to go somewhere and if the greens enter the competition, the voters have got to come from somewhere, so it affects the upcoming closely fought seats. so they can win or lose the seats in closely fought areas? it can have that impact. there has never been a green mp from the north—west, but that doesn't mean they are not important. at the last election, they stood aside in chester asking supporters to back the labour candidate, who went on to win. this time round, they are not putting any candidates forward in the seats that are too close to call. the green vote is growing, especially in communities like the marsh stayed. they know there is a long way to go before there are more green mps on the greens seats of the house of commons. so tactical voting and left wing pacts.
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it's notjust the north west where parties are forming alliances against their common enemies. in brighton pavilion the liberal democrats have agreed not to stand against the green party's only mp caroline lucas, who's fighting off a challenge from labour and the conservatives. meanwhile in hastings & rye, the greens have pulled out to try to help labour oust the home secretary, amber rudd. so, quitea so, quite a lot of negotiating, horse trading going on. do you think we will see more tactical voting this time round? i am not sure we are. what we're talking about, and it was clear from that clip, a tiny numberof it was clear from that clip, a tiny number of seats were majorities are tight and makes a difference, this could be a tsunami from the conservatives and it could sweep aside all the little lifeboat people are constructing for themselves. not enough numbers, the maths doesn't do it. also, that report was talking about the green party, but in the
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south—east, i feel like the greens have stood aside so much, they are actually not offering the green choice to lots of people. that might have been a tactical choice, but that option isn't even there now. i am surprised how many people split their boats and people i have talked to in north london, they go labour for their borough but then torrealba is because brexit. where i live in west london, there is peeling and bre ntford west london, there is peeling and brentford and isa worked for the green said they will stand aside. —— ealing. picking up on the point you made, kate some people say it is a moral obligation and if you are party and stand for certain things, regardless of an overlap with another party, you ought to give people the right to see the candidate and it is your moral duty to field a candidate?” candidate and it is your moral duty to field a candidate? i agree with that and that is how politics works.
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he want to be elected and push forward. i do feel sorry for those voters who feel disenfranchised now. they don't have their usual party to vote for. we'll have to see if you are right. the swingometer has been a regular feature of election night coverage for the best part of 60 years. it was designed to explain the unfolding results in visual terms. what started off as a simple hand made prop has developed using the latest in computer wizardry. jenny kumah's been looking at the evolution of the device. # it don't mean nothing if it don't have that swing. if it is election night, there is a swingometer. it first appeared in 1959 showing how movements of votes
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from one party to another translated into parliamentary seats. if the swing for example is one point consistently and on the average to the conservatives, they are not only in again, but they will have an increased majority of about 35. what started off as a crude looking cardboard model has become more sophisticated. nowadays, it is about virtual reality. for the 2015 general election, the bbc transformed this room to show the conservative path to power. it can be traced back to this man, 92—year—old sir david butler. as a student here in oxford, he was playing around with the results of the 19a5 election and decided to record the change in voting patterns. i have been desperately keen on cricket statistics. the war stopped first—class cricket and i switched to looking at elections and i played around with pasta election
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results. his theory led to the creation of the swingometer and decades of commentating on election night. when ten seats were in, you could predict the final outcome. the average swing in those first seats came very near to the average swing at the end of the day. he was there at the end of the day. he was there at the end of the day. he was there at the beginning and are still alive, still analysing elections. only this week, he started on twitter. he has already got 5000 followers. as smaller parties have played bigger roles, more swingometer have featured. for 2017 there will be a total of five, with there will be a total of five, with the first—ever showing the contest between the conservatives and the scottish national party. if the geeks love their swingometer
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ts, if the geeks love their swingometer ‘s, politicians love a catchphrase. but do they make you tune in, or turn off? just in case you need a reminder. it isa it is a choice between strong and sta ble it is a choice between strong and stable leadership under the conservatives. britain needs strong and stable government. only a vote for me and my team will ensure britain has the strong and stable leadership we need. britain has the strong and stable leadership we needlj britain has the strong and stable leadership we need. i am proud of our manifesto for the many, not the few. for the many, our manifesto for the many, not the few. forthe many, not the our manifesto for the many, not the few. for the many, not the few. thank you very much. nothing embodies ourcampaign thank you very much. nothing embodies our campaign theme, for the many not the few, better than the national health service. there must bea national health service. there must be a vote to change britain's future. paul, before we go on to catch phrases, let's pick up the issue of swing. it does muddle some people,
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but it can be significant? it can, it was significant when we had four parties at the next election, ukip, the lib dems as well as the conservatives and labour, all above 10% in the polls. this time we don't have them all above 10%, but what is reverting to be almost 19505 system reverting to be almost 19505 5y5tem labour again5t tory. so the old—fashioned swingometer people are u5ed old—fashioned swingometer people are used to might be more effective thi5 time. it was brexit, the swing when we got those first results coming in from newcastle and sunderland that started to tip us off that something had gone a bit wrong from upper pollsters were saying? absolutely, seeing the swing on the night is such a dramatic part of any election, the physical image of its sweeping to one side. i think this time it will be the swing from ukip to the tories. that will be the case in so many seats across the country. in the meantime, ifeel like
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subliminal messaging. do people take those in, do you think? yes. i am not sure. the spin doctor the george bu5h, u5e not sure. the spin doctor the george bu5h, use to say only when the media i5 bored of a catchphrase or sound bite is the point when people are li5tening bite is the point when people are listening to it. a lot of people only see political news for a few minute5 only see political news for a few minutes a week. so if that is the chance they get, they will listen to it. some other catchphra5e5 are the be5t it. some other catchphra5e5 are the best ones who don't talk at the voter5, they reflect what voter5 think. we have done some focu5 group5, think. we have done some focu5 groups, and the loss of this strong and stable leadership was coming out from focu5 and stable leadership was coming out from focus groups before theresa may we re from focus groups before theresa may were saying it. it is working. i was talking to friends earlier today and asked them what has come through. they are not politically engaged, but they said strong and stable straightaway. they also knew the labour won as well. they did know
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how they knew it. but the message is getting through. it is genius strategy. we then tried to look at some of the other parties and they are not working with slogans. if you think of the lib dems, the website says a vote for us can change britain's future. but they haven't been saying it with nausea like some of the others. ukip has a bus with their five pledges of the others. ukip has a bus with theirfive pledges on. of the others. ukip has a bus with their five pledges on. it is all a bit blancmange from the others. that i5 bit blancmange from the others. that is why they are not putting too in the polls because they don't have a clear definition and that is everything in politics. jeremy corbyn thi5 everything in politics. jeremy corbyn this week has made labour finally a tax and spend a hollick party which is what a lot of 5upporter5 party which is what a lot of supporters have wanted. whether it got through to the voters on the night of... there has been an uplift in the polls for labour. it could be getting through. monday is cut off day for voter
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registration. what do we know of the importance of turnout? it is absolutely vital. look what happened with brexit. it was such an enormous turnout and everybody was so engaged. 7296 turnout. turnout matters but we still have a problem with engaging with young voters and thatis with engaging with young voters and that is why labour and lib dems want 16 plus voters. if you analyse turnout, who turns out in terms of the demographic and the age can make a difference as to who polls well? ye5, a difference as to who polls well? yes, in some 5eat5, it can help you protect a seat or attack a seed. the youth vote in some university cities has a role. but there is an iron rule but young people aren't as interested in voting as older voters, unfortunately that has been so voters, unfortunately that has been so for so long. a lot of politicians
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wa nt so for so long. a lot of politicians want to change it, jeremy corbyn wants to change it. thank you both for your time and being with us tonight. it has been a busy week. that is the end of the first week of the election wrap. i hope it has given you a flavour of what is to come. we will be back on monday. the same every night at 7:30pm and it gives you a sense of what has been going on. but here is a few things that gave us food for thought. feast your eyes on this. where you interested in politics when you are 16? no, just boys. if you don't read the manifesto, you don't know what they are going to do. what about you? hello, i am sorry to interrupt you, i know you
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are having your ice cream is. 216—year—olds eat a lot of cheese? surprising what they do eat. excellent. spent all the money... pack it in. ayew well? very good. this was sleaford. this has been seen across many this was sleaford. this has been seen across many parts of the country. towards the north—east, more persistent outbreaks of rain, so more persistent outbreaks of rain,
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so this was the scene in the afternoon. you can see the grey cloud producing some outbreaks of rain through much of the day. we are keeping the rain through part of the north—east of england and north east scotland. elsewhere, across the country many places the showers easing away. becoming largely dry, clear and fresh first thing saturday morning. temperatures in single figures. through the day tomorrow, another day of sunshine and showers, but still some rain across the north—east of scotland, south—west scotla nd north—east of scotland, south—west scotland and into northern ireland, sunny spells and scattered showers. the north—east of england, patchy outbreaks of light rain but heading our way further south across england and wales, there will be sunshine to kick off your morning but showers cropping up across wales and the south—west of england where they could be heavy first thing. fewer showers for central and south—eastern parts of england. adding to the date as temperatures rise, we will start to see the
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showers building across much of england and wales and northern ireland. we could see some thunderstorms mixed in. across scotland, the heaviest of the rain will clear towards the northern isles leaving a scattering of showers. temperatures in the mid teens. by sunday, most of the showers tending to ease away. should be an improvement by the time we get to sunday. showers and temperatures warm, up to around 20 degrees which will feel pleasant with light winds but still a few showers in the northwest. heavy downpours likely, but equally some sunshine on saturday. sunday, the drier day with fewer showers around and those temperatures on the warmer side. heading through into the new working week, monday we see low—pressure approaching from the northwest. this will bring breezy weather to northern ireland, scotland and outbreaks of showery rain. the further south east you go, things are looking drier and in the sunshine it should feel warm at 22 degrees. goodbye for now. this is bbc news, i'm rachel scofield.
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the headlines at 8pm: wikileaks founderjulian assange says his legal conflict with britain and the us continues, after swedish prosecutors dropped a seven year rape investigation. seven years without charge while my children grew up without me. that is not something i can forgive. it is not something i can forget. theresa may defends her election pledge to scrap winter fuel payments it to them opposed by some scottish conservatives. labour described the winter fuel plans as "sick and sneaky", claiming ten million older people would be hit. the families of the victims of serial killer stephen port
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