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tv   Election 2017  BBC News  June 8, 2017 9:55pm-2:00am BST

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if‘ai‘it if‘ai‘ii n—f that leak proves comey as a say that leak proves comey as a politcal operator, he could see he was just protecting his politcal operator, he could see he wasjust protecting his reputation because he was worried the president could lie about the meeting?m because he was worried the president could lie about the meeting? it is not hisjob as fbi director to protect his own reputation, if it comes to the point when he cannot execute an order because it is an ethical, legal, it is hisjob to resign, blow the whistle. if he thought it was more prudent to stay oi'i thought it was more prudent to stay on the job, leading to the media probably is not the way to go. he should probably talk to the attorney general. that is from us, or outside source. if you are watching in north america, europe and to get much more onjames america, europe and to get much more on james comey, but america, europe and to get much more onjames comey, but then the united kingdom, or else we are, we are handing over to david dimbleby. polls are minutes from closing in
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the general election. about to find out the results of the exit poll. good evening and welcome to the election centre. tonight, the third time into yours that we have come here to the result in a major unity kingdom wide poll.. in 2015, david cameron's election resulted in the vote for brexit see a promise. and theresa may has guaranteed certainty for the years ahead. three act drama. indications of what she has got what she wanted orjeremy corbyn has dashed hopes will come with exit polls at ten. who gets to number ten? welcome to the virtual downing street. we have watched as in 2015
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conservative constituencies pathed the path. labour left behind. what is going to happen tonight? will the conservatives get the 326 seed is that they need, or can labour close the gap? earlier today, the party leaders casted votes. just as 47 million of us had the right to do. and the first actual result will help cast results. newcastle and sunderland going head to head. sophie is in sunderland. these are the people poised to grab the ballot boxes, sunderland south has been the first to declare since 1992, butt newcastle is after the crown. can they do that? we should now in about 45 minutes. the team at the election centre are going to be gathering the results, analysing the individual
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contest, updating the production and we can looked at each of the 650 individual constituencies. delving into the political make up. never before have we gone into an election with such diverse productions. this is when we discover what the numbers are going to be. the giant screen is going to be bordered with data, and ina going to be bordered with data, and in a moment i should be able to predict which seats could be changing hands. and on the balcony, michelle will be joined by politicians and commentators, assessing white what has happened has happened, and the consequences. i will be heard throughout the evening, getting verdicts on what the message delivered by the people means for the parties, policies, and some political careers. and with me, the political editor laura chris, talking about this exit polls. just
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20 seconds, then i will be able to reveal the results of the bbc, itv, skyjoint poll. 0ver reveal the results of the bbc, itv, skyjoint poll. over 30,000 people, and many polling stations questioned today, and by magic we were able to predict what we think has happened tonight. what we are saying is that conservatives are the largest party. they don't have an overall majority at this stage. 314, the conservatives macro, down 17. 266 for labour. at 34. the snp, 34, down 22. treats that figure with caution for technical reasons. the liberal democrats on 14, at six. the smaller parties plaid cymru eight stays on
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three, the greens on one, none for ukip and the others, 18. the prime minister called this election because she wanted, as she put it, certainty and stability. this doesn't seem, at this stage, to look like certainty and stability. it could still be that the conservative macros have an overall majority. they need another 12 seats. that's just the exit poll. the reality, after the first result, will be the real test. that's how things look 110w. real test. that's how things look now. what do you make of it, laura? if these numbers are correct, theresa may has played a high risk political game and she may have lost her gamble. she didn't have to call this election, she only did so to give herself a mandate and breathing space over brexit. a few weeks ago
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at the start of the campaign she seemed almost unassailable. a very shaky seemed almost unassailable. a very s ha ky few seemed almost unassailable. a very shaky few weeks and an insurgent labour party underjeremy corbyn may have dashed their hopes. this exit poll is not what either of the main parties have been predicting privately. this would be another political surprise, with both the british public again defying expectations of the largest political parties. the tories look like they will still be the largest party, they may still have a majority, but to raise a's promise was strong and stable leadership. she may end the night diminished. the situation more uncertain. but only your votes, the real results, will actually dictate what happens next. maybe, given that we are in this territory of waiting to see whether our exit poll is correct, but let's assume it is and have a
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look at the new house of commons. this does feel sensational. the key figure is 326. just over half the mps in the house of commons gives you the majority. david cameronjust got there in the last election and the exit poll has the conservatives falling short. they can't outvote all the other mp5 falling short. they can't outvote all the other mps in the house of commons. as has been said, it wouldn't take a little bit of error in the exit poll to push the conservatives over the line. it will bea conservatives over the line. it will be a fascinating night. let's look at the other parties. labour, 266, up at the other parties. labour, 266, up more than 30 seats. the snp we have going down to 34. there are a lot of 50—50 calls so that may change. the lib dems have added six seats to their tally, the —— we think. the same for played camera.
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the greens, the same. 18 others. let's go back to the government benches and stress that this gap is very small. it's possible that it closes during the night. at the moment, under the exit poll, the conservative party have lost their overall majority and would be short by 12 votes. 12 mp5 short of an outright majority. i'm joined by 12 votes. 12 mp5 short of an outright majority. i'mjoined by by 12 votes. 12 mp5 short of an outright majority. i'm joined by two senior politicians from the main parties, john mcdonnell, shadow chancellor for labour, and parties, john mcdonnell, shadow chancellorfor labour, and michael fallon, the defence secretary. michael fallon, if this is right, it was a terrible error to called the selection. let's see some actual results. this is a projection. you made that clear. it's not a result. these exit polls have been wrong in the past. in the 2015th these exit polls have been wrong in the past. in the 20 15th they underestimated our vote. a couple of
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elections before that they overestimated our vote. we need to see some actual results before we can interpret this one way or the other. if this were to be close to the result, in other words that you mightjust have a majority, you wouldn't have what you were all looking for, which was a big majority in the house of commons. people were talking about a majority of 30, people were talking about a majority of30, 40, people were talking about a majority of 30, 40, 50 a few weeks ago. i never believed the polls showing us 20 points ahead. in an election you get a tightening between the major parties. that was clearly happening this time. it's very early, on the basis of what is a projection, before single actual result. let's wait and see. john mcdonnell, you're encouraged by the prediction of 34. if that happens, you and jeremy corbyn remain in charge of the labour party, presumably. i'm going to surprise you and agree with michael for the first time ever. we
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have to have some scepticism about all polls at the moment. we've got it wrong in the past. let's see some results. what do you have to say about the election campaign? we tried to have an extremely positive campaign. we modelled it around jeremy's character. when he stood for the leadership, his slogan at the time was honest politics, straight talking and that's what we've tried to do. if it is reflected in this level of support, it changes the nature of political discourse in our country. people have got fed up of the yah boo politics and some of the nasty tactics that have gone on in recent yea rs. tactics that have gone on in recent years. a positive campaign, if it comes out like this, it will improve politics in this country. what did you think about their campaign?m was very nasty. at times it dragged us was very nasty. at times it dragged us into the gutter and i didn't like that. let's put that to one side. if
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the result is anywhere near like this, it means positive politics has succeeded. nasty campaign? i don't agree. 0ur succeeded. nasty campaign? i don't agree. ourcampaign succeeded. nasty campaign? i don't agree. 0ur campaign focus was on strong leadership, on getting the brexit negotiations right, on setting out some of the big social and economic challenges which case this country. leaving aside the personal stuff, labour ducked it. they pretended there was a magic money tree. michael... you've got brexit talks starting in 11 days. serious talks about the future of this country. that was hardly discussed in the campaign. if this is right, theresa may hasn't got the sort of massive support from the country she was hoping to get to allow her to do whatever it is she wa nted allow her to do whatever it is she wanted to do, which she never told us. wanted to do, which she never told us. we did bring the campaign back
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to brexit. you never said what kind of brexit. we did, we set out the 12 tactics, we set out the deep and special partnership with europe, being careful about the trade we already do with europe while looking for new markets. security... and on security cooperation. we never got into the debate on brexit we should have had. is that your fault as well? generally we didn't. .. have had. is that your fault as well? generally we didn't... did have had. is that your fault as well? generally we didn't. .. did you have a policy? that's the sort of politics people are rejecting. you've got to be straightforward and honest with people now. you should not parody other parties positions. what was interesting is that theresa may went with one question about brexit to the electorate and that was going to be the central question of the whole election. people said there are other issues we want to discuss. i remember the 1974
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election. the government then, ted heath went to the country and asked who rules britain. it was the miners strike at the time. people said the question is about living standards, public services, the future of the country. neither main party really got into brexit. looking at these numbers again, if they are proven to be right, what was called the progressive coalition would tot up to 318 seats as opposed to the tory seats of 314. they might be able to rely on lord of the irish seats, but be —— we could be in a position where several parties could be equal to the conservatives. let's have a reminder of where the exit poll is. this is what it is showing. we've projected it on the front of new broadcasting house. in the dusk! labour on 266. the snp on 34, down
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22. lib dems on 14. plaid cymru on three, the greens on one. ukip none. others 18. the conservatives on 314, which is 17 short of an overall majority. the first result we get from you, sophie, will give you a clue as to whether these two gentlemen are feeling more cheerful 01’ gentlemen are feeling more cheerful or less. it certainly will. the ballot boxes are being run in. the first one was in at three minutes past ten. a lot of sixth form students, 80 of them, are bringing them in. houghton and sunderland south has been the fastest to
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declare with a record of 45 minutes. they have newcastle snapping on their heels. we will have to wait and see who gets there first. it's a really well old machine. they only fold the ballot papers in half. they've even checked out the roots to get to the sports centre to make sure the fans take the fastest route possible. you can see how hard they are working just make sure they do get in and they their crown. —— they retain their crown. let's join andrew marr. he's at maidenhead, whether theresa may is waiting for her count. what's the reaction down there? the reaction from senior conservatives is they flatly don't believe it. they say that's not the reaction they've got around the country. it cannot be true. one of
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the reasons they are saying that is it would be a huge disaster for theresa may and the conservative party if it was accurate. this whole election was about ensuring that theresa may had the leeway to do a proper deal on brexit afterwards. she needed a bigger majority to do that and it appears she hasn't got that. she can bring in a small platoon of democratic unionists from ireland. they agree with her on brexit. she can't do what damon —— david cameron did when he brought in the lib dems. on the great issue of the lib dems. on the great issue of the day, brexit, they are of opposite opinion. she's in trouble. thank you. let's join the other party leader... nick robinson is in islington north, jeremy corbyn‘s seat. in the dark. have you had in that back a reaction to this exit poll? when jeremy corbyn arrived
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just before the exit poll come he was in the dark but he looked chief or, as did his chief adviser. —— looked cheerful. everybody will be cautious about this exit poll because it comes in such a surprise, in line with some of the polls that showed just 1% or 2% tory lead. it will give enormous power to jeremy corbyn, not just within will give enormous power to jeremy corbyn, notjust within parliament, but within his party, too. very few people believed he would win this election, but two years ago they never believed he would fight this election. they now believe they have shifted british politics for good. they believe they have put ideas that were previously seen as extreme or on the margins, nationalisation, big public spending, borrowing and taxing, ideas of investment in the nhs, back firmly in the centre of british politics. he will be strengthened. what he didn't anticipate would be a rather
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powerful role to play over brexit. if the exit poll liz wright, if theresa may effectively has to do deals in all dirty get her way, that gives labour potentially enormous power in terms of the deals they are willing to do and whether they will work with tory rebels when it comes to crucial vote on brexit in 2018 and 2019. we live on rumours from places and we have just heard a rumour, i put it knoche longer than that, that the tories may be in trouble in hastings. amber rudd, home secretary, who stood in for theresa may in that debate, and who is thought to have done a formidable job, in hastings she may be in difficulty. let's look at some other seats with emily. it's impossible to predict at this stage anything too closely. it's impossible to stress too much how delicately we are treading given that the exit poll,
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as things stand, is untested. we've not had a single result. if it is on track or right, these are some of the seats, tory held at the moment, that have a 90% chance of turning red, being taken by labour. some of them are incredibly tight marginals. some of them are much higher up the target list, bedford, around 11 or 12 on that target list. i'll show you what we are able to do. this is croydon central, a very tight marginals. gavin barwell, the housing minister. you can see what is being projected on the forecast. a likely labour game. the leave vote split pretty evenly, we don't know if that will come into play. bolton west, theresa may launched her campaign in this neck of the woods. not this exact seat. very tightly
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fought. they only need a .8% swing to ta ke fought. they only need a .8% swing to take it from the conservatives, but the figures the forecast is coming up with suggest labour would be on coming up with suggest labour would beona coming up with suggest labour would be on a 9—point lead in pretty much all of these seats. that's why we're saying they have a very good chance of taking them. this would go read as well. bedford, 13 on the labour target list. it looks tight at the moment. tony blair took it three times for labour. it's not often you'll hearjeremy corbyn and tony blair in the same sentence, but we could be looking at some interesting changes of seats. bedford projected to be at least ten points between labour and the conservatives. brighton, camp town, next to the green seat, simon kirby on this forecast, could be for the conservatives will stop we are projecting a labour game with a lead
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of another ten percentage points. we'll know when we get the first result and whether that exit poll is even vaguely on track. we are on eggshells at the moment, being very cautious for perfectly obvious reasons. if you've justjoined cautious for perfectly obvious reasons. if you'vejustjoined us, we're not saying the conservatives have an overall majority, we are saying they are the largest party. if the exit poll is true, what are the implications? no one better than some of the senior politicians who have been involved in this sort of thing before. mishal husain has won with her. with me is ming campbell, former leader of the liberal democrats. your reaction to the exit poll? david took the word eggshells out of my mouth. the history of these polls in the past, it's very, very dangerous to seek to draw conclusions. one thing is certain. mrs made's effort to get a large
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majority in order to enhance her ability to drive a hard deal with the european union has simply been exploded. if these results... the exit poll shows your party adding seats in the house of commons, going up seats in the house of commons, going up to 14 lib dem mps. could you imagine the liberal democrats being pa rt imagine the liberal democrats being part of some sort of progressive alliance in the commons? tim farron made it very clear, he said no deal, no coalition. we've had our fingers burned by coalition, i don't need to tell you that! i find it very, very difficult to see how tim farron would be able to go back on what he's previously said and indeed to persuade the membership of the liberal democrats that a coalition would be a good idea from our point of view. a progressive alliance would be different. progressive alliance implies a commitment to support the government in power. the
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notion of a progressive apply —— alliance is it will supplant the conservatives. on brexit, the liberal democrat position is very clear as compared to jeremy corbyn's position, which almost defies definition. i can't possibly see an arrangement of the kind between labour and the liberal democrats which would in any way overcome that quite significant difference of opinion. as far as tim farron is concerned, however difficult it might be to put to the members, and with the memories of the 2010 to 2015 experience, this is a campaign which was fought on brexit and wanting to fight against a heart brexit. should tim farron consider some kind of arrangement with the conservatives? that's equally impossible. mrs may made it clear before and after calling the election, she said no deal is better thana election, she said no deal is better than a bad deal. she is willing to
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acce pt than a bad deal. she is willing to accept the hardest possible brexit. how could tim farron possibly ally himself with that? nor could he take the party with him. over 100,000 people, a doubling of the membership since 2015. even with possible having influence over the brexit negotiations? we know about coalitions and influence. our experiences after the last coalition, the major party gets the credit for everything that's done and the junior party takes the blame for the things that people don't like. he will have to make his own decision. i should be astonished if he would countenance any kind of coalition either with labour or the conservatives. what he can say is we will deal with every issue on a vote by the basis. we will not have, if you like, opposition for the sake of it, but we will consider everything on its merits. that is something he
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can sell to his own party and its something which will preserve his and the parties integrity. fascinating scenes in sunderland. there is still a bit of daylight, being further north than london. look at the students with these boxes! bringing the ballot boxes to the central count. white gloves, handling them carefully, all trained to do this, both sunderland and newcastle have been competing. the man who organised sunderland last time has been giving advice to slough in buckinghamshire because they wanted to get their result in as fast as possible. the boxes have to be opened. there's a problem this time round. if people go who have postal balance and put them in these boxes, they have to be individually verified and that takes a bit of time. they are saying now, newcastle they will have fares by 11pm.
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sunderland a bit before. let's talk to our reporter down there. hello, can you hear us in newcastle? hello. it's looking like a great race, how are you doing? everyone tasked when you said sunderland might be a few minutes before newcastle. they are definitely clock watching. frantic activity behind me. the first ballot box came in at seven minutes past ten. 128 in total will be making their way through to the sports arena. we think we have 50 insofar. newcastle a re arena. we think we have 50 insofar. newcastle are hoping to get a declaration result announced by as early as roughly, maybe, 10:45pm. if they do that, they will become the first to declare a result on general election night. they want to beat
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sunderland. they have a very healthy rivalry that's been going on for many elections. they keep reminding us many elections. they keep reminding us they beat sunderland last year in the eu referendum result. i was here that night and tonight is no exception when it comes down to the precise process of the boxes coming into the hall and the counting getting underway. if they are on track, and they are looking optimistic, maybe before 11pm and before sunderland. it's great to have the race, but it's important because those first results will give us a clue through our psephology this. they will give us a clue on whether the exit poll is accurate or not. i'm joined by stewart hosie, who was the mp for dundee east. he's standing for dundee east. he's standing for dundee east. he's standing for dundee east. you're in glasgow tonight but thank you forjoining us. what do you make of this exit poll? it looks rather damaging for
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the snp, down 22 is what the exit poll is saying. first of all it is only an exit poll. all of the usual caveats and pinches of salt soda apply. the main story, if it's accurate, is that theresa may has given up the majority. if the numbers are correct, 314 tories against 314 others and 22 from the northern irish parties. that's an extraordinary thing. for theresa may to call this election for narrow party advantage, and then if these numbers are correct, to blow it incredibly. if she has blown it in the sense that she doesn't have an overall majority, would you allow her to go through with the queen's speech in the house of commons with the snp assuming you have a substantial wage in the new house? —— wedge. substantial wage in the new house? -- wedge. it would still point to
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the snp winning the election in scotland, which is what we set out to achieve. i don't recall us ever voting for significant tory policy in the past and it would be hard to see in the current climate, with austerity cuts, heart brexit, that we would want to support them in any way ina we would want to support them in any way in a future parliament. the reason i said that the beginning we we re reason i said that the beginning we were a bit cautious about snp on 34, down 22 is a lot of these are very tight, polling suggesting 50—50. angus robertson, your leader in westminster, and alex salmond, your former leader, are both said to be under threat if this exit poll is correct. do you have any information from them on how they think they've done? no. i don't have any specific information from those seats. common
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sense would tell us that a big fish like alex salmond, a fantastic parliamentary performer, like angus robertson, with their track records in their constituencies, would have an edge over any insurgent tory campaign. it will take some hours before this comes out in the wash. thank you very much. when it does come out in the wash, perhaps you'll come out in the wash, perhaps you'll come back in the light of reality rather than speculation and tell us your position. indeed. i'll be delighted to as long as it's stopped raining by then! a last word from you about this. we heard menzies campbell talking about what would happen. everybody is dumping on the tories at the moment for having called this election in the first place. saying it was a misjudgement. i think it was the right thing to do to have a strong and clear mandate as we go into the brexit negotiations. theresa may didn't
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have that mandate last year when she took over from david cameron and it was clear that other opposition parties were in the business of frustrating a successful brexit. it was right to ask the british people for a mandate. we don't yet know what the result is. it was the right thing to do, but feared it goes wrong, you will say it was the wrong thing. you don't have a result. you can't say was the right thing to do if it turns out wrong. you'll be blaming theresa may the having called it. i think it was right to ask their british people for a support for a strong mandate to negotiate this very complex brexit. i think it was the right thing to do. she inherited from david cameron a previous manifesto, which was designed before the brexit referendum. your shadow defence secretary, emily thornberry... shadow foreign secretary, emily thornberry. she's just shared
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shadow foreign secretary, emily thornberry. she'sjust shared —— said that she thinks that theresa may, on the basis of this exit poll, should resign. don't say we don't know the exit poll... should resign. don't say we don't know the exit poll. .. i'm so cautious on these occasions. assume it's right. if it is right, her position is increasingly untenable. michael, you need to listen to what the people are saying. theresa may promises she do when —— went go for a snap general election and she goes for it. she wanted to secure a your ready had. people saw through that. they saw this as an election which was for party advantage rather than the interests of the country and it looks like they've rejected her a result. she didn't have a mandate. please! we voted for article 50. she didn't have a mandate and many people argued she should have called
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an election earlier. people saw this as pure opportunism and it looks like they've rejected it. they thought she was putting party advantage above the country when we need to address the real issues, the economy, public services. laura, what's yourjudgment? my phone is filling up with messages of scepticism, not of outright denial, but scepticism from senior figures. one senior labour figure says this doesn't feel believable. a conservative says it feels wrong. this is an extremely extensive exit poll and theresa may, having looked unassailable at the start of this campaign, had a very bumpy time. whether that was over social care, her manifesto promised that she was fought to change, or whether it was over police cuts that became a huge pressure for her in the closing moments of the campaign. we heard this from voters on the doorstep,
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some people were perhaps not resentful, but a bit peeved about having another election. michael fallon, until april the 18th, you also said it was not the right thing to have an election. you said it would be wrong to have an election and people around the country saw that, they was get to go about theresa may going to the country. they understood the central argument that other parties were determined to frustrate the brexit process to vote against it. we heard the lib dems would campaign for a second referendum. if the conservatives go backwards, surely it will have been an enormous political mistake to have called an election she didn't need to. evenif even if the result is anywhere near it, catastrophic. the people have seen through this. even if it is near this. you're getting carried away. not that old. the exit poll
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could have egg on its face. joint poll with itv and sky! not on our own! getting the excuses in. and you we re own! getting the excuses in. and you were getting the excuses in! listening to that conversation, we should not assume much at all. but we have got the exit poll. we're looking at the conservative seats, the most vulnerable, starting with exit poll, for gower, and so on. down we go. first page of 32 seats. the conservatives and the most vulnerable seats. we have got the exit poll on this. we can see the land grab. amazingly, gower stay in
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conservative. derby north, labour. quite a lot of damage. ed balls' old seat, back to labour. and interestingly, as the board goes on, the conservatives defending better. it looks as though that is the extent of the labour advance. it is a patchy prediction. 32 more. torbay, 3000 majority. what do we think has happened? we can take a look. you can see that some of these labourgains, look. you can see that some of these labour gains, not look. you can see that some of these labourgains, not in look. you can see that some of these labour gains, not in places that you may have expected. exit poll i have got to stress. and you remember that
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michael portillo moment. on that, labour have done some more damage. and it does not stop. we can go to even better defended seats. you would not have thought these could go to any other party when theresa may started the election campaign. and we have got labour reaching into these seats, with majority. milton keynes dons south, and under the exit poll we will have to see what happens when we actually come to the actual results, and that is surely not going to be too long. we can look at targets. when theresa may called the election, she thought we re called the election, she thought were going to gain some labour seats, but have they managed to get any gains? well... this seed that is most vulnerable, chester. labourwon
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it with only a 93 vote margin. berwickshire, tight win for the snp. these are the seats that you would think the conservatives would advance into. and you can see, it is advance into. and you can see, it is a poor performance. nothing going on. we have taken, according to the exit poll, berwickshire and roxburgh, marginal, and wrexham. it seems to be a better story in wales and scotland for the conservatives and scotland for the conservatives and england. these are safer seats, but the conservatives could still have had eyes on them at the start of the election. have the conservatives won any? yes. but what have they got in common? wales. scotland. dumfries and galloway, the scottish seat, and newport east,
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jessica morgan was the mp. saw in england, big gains for the conservatives seem to be few and far between. we have got one more. these would have been the seats that would have been difficult for the conservatives to gain. has anything been happening? very little. moray in scotland. nothing in england. extraordinary. labour have done some serious damage to conservative accrue to in england, but they could have offset it with gains in wales and scotland. are we going to be hung, drawn and quartered if this is wrong? we have got to go by the exit poll. but we have got reaction to the exit poll. the bbc media editor, and the economics editor. has there
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been an immediate reaction? huge reaction. this is a massive shock. huge caveats. many people saying you have got so many close seeds. astonishment across twitter. caroline lucas, the green leader, has just tweeted. and the political editor of the daily mail, supportive of theresa may, has said that the famous quote. already, some big themes emerging on social media. disaster for theresa may, and another that we could have another election. and people like lord
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ashcroft, it is going to be a long night! not another election. in a bristolian accent. we were a few together on the referendum evening, for brexit. it is a similar field. you have got to be careful. it is a poll. we have not seen any real results, but the e down 2% against the $and results, but the e down 2% against the $ and euro. it is not as much aboutjeremy the $ and euro. it is not as much about jeremy corbyn deemed the prime minister, depending on how things could turn out if this is correct, but it is about uncertainty. that world we always use, when markets are looking at the situation. the economic challenge for the native kingdom was brexit. if we are in a position when neither of the parties have got a solid majority and have to go through tough negotiations,
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weak positions, it could be another election and the situation when the scottish referendum could come back into play, depending on those negotiations. the markets look at that and with much prefer a 70 majority for theresa may orjeremy corbyn. whatever the policies. at least then they can make judgments on the policy. not thinking that it is going to be a softer brexit if theresa may does not have the majority? some argument that they do not have a huge amount of sympathy for that you could have the softer brexit f it is a jeremy corbyn led government, hung parliament, having to put together some coalition. the uncertainty of this government lasting four, five years, the brexit process, would the brexit process be
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put back to parliament in some substantive way? i think those concerns would outweigh concerns that you can get a better deal with europe. that is the reaction you're getting with the currency. we have been here before. with brexit, the currency went to 1.20. but on 2%, we have got to wait for those margins. and currency traders, making a fortune? some of them are going to be on the right side, wrong side! million, billion there! all of them are gamblers. it is more than that. making a judgment on the possible strength of the united kingdom economy. do not call it gambling. we can't go to scotland. just a reminder, the exit poll had the snp
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going down to 24.32, reminder, the exit poll had the snp going down to 24. 32, we are going to need a new world for caveat.|j think we are talking about extreme caveats. the scottish national party, even harder than some of the places to read. according to the forecast, the snp on 34. that means that they would be losing 12 if the poll is on target. these are some of the ones, 90% chance of them losing. the first one... bat comes out on the forecast as gain for the conservatives. they have called this aberdeen westlife because all of the candidates are under the age of 30. you can see stuart donaldson. even with that massive majority of 7000, and the conservatives needing the 6.4% swing, on the forecast they are going to take it. that is the fast
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possible game. —— first. perth... the conservative target was 88. it would seem as though the conservative chances in scotland are better than england but we have not had the result in yet. these are the forecast. the conservative long shot. 9% swing. that would put them on 50% share of the vote. and some of us that there is would lose, not to the conservatives but the liberal democrats. this one, being tightly fought. and john nicolson, the former television presenter going out, and coming in, jo swinson. she lost her seat in 2015, and she would ta ke lost her seat in 2015, and she would take it back on a pretty decent share. much bigger than the swing
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that she would meet. and edinburgh west, number nine on the targets. you can see the 2015 share has those top two parties, on the forecast. and these are all tentative, but these are the most likely to actually change. we have got a lot more in scotland that we would call 50 50. on the cusp. we would not go farther than that. but that is why the exit poll is in such a caveat mode. and these parties, pro union? do not want another referendum on the union? that could have something to do with that. but what was interesting, for example in
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aberdeenshire west, i looked at the leave vote, 49%. but to put that in context, a high leave vote for scotland. that could have given the conservatives a chance. in scotland, some of them the 70 30 murder. and we can go to edinburgh. what do you make of this poll? if it is true? absolutely. and the snp themselves looking anxious about this. but i would not say that they think they are on target to lose that many seeds. they were braced for some watchers, it was such an amazing result two years ago, 56 of 59 in scotland. it seemed inevitable debugging to lose some of them. this would be really remarkable if the exit poll was correct. and as you
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alluded to, the dynamic of this campaign in scotland has been com pletely campaign in scotland has been completely different. you have got the snp, having so many of the seats, and the conservatives almost the insurgents, thought that they could take some of the seats. optimistic about 6—10. a dozen. would be very happy with that. the campaign narrative has been different. it has been about independence. it wasjust different. it has been about independence. it was just three months ago that nicola sturgeon said she wanted another referendum. and the conservatives have cast themselves who said they are the one party that can stop another referendum, the defenders of the united kingdom, opel labour and referendum, the defenders of the united kingdom, opel labourand the liberal democrats also said the scene. the conservatives have taken on that mantle. and the hope that could propel them to take some seats from the snp. we can go to cardiff. and the played comrie —— plaid
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cymru, what can we expect?” and the played comrie —— plaid cymru, what can we expect? i am in cardiff, not expecting any results for some time. but the first minister of wales, ca rwyn wales, carwynjones, talking to me. it was only back in 1983 that the conservatives had their high watermark, gaining 14 seats. that was at the height of margaret thatcher's popularity. theresa may was hoping to make some inroads. she came to wales, three times. four
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different constituencies. she was hoping wales, having voted to leave, in some of these marginal constituencies that she would be gaining support. she was really targeting this. we have got to see what the results are going to be. ca rwyn what the results are going to be. carwyn jones, the what the results are going to be. carwynjones, the first minister of wales, really lead the labour campaign. jeremy corbyn visited but was not particularly visible. welsh labour have said it has been successful. but he does not want to comment on this too much, on this exit poll, it is a ladies. but he has made the point that he did not feel theresa may had engaged with people when she came on these visits, making the point that she had not entered the debates. and plaid cymru, expected to remain
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on on three. the former leader coming out of retirement. going to be looking close at that. and also, campaigning very hard on the streets. and launching the plaid cymru manifesto. clive is in south london. tooting. covering battersea, what is the story there? before you start, we're keeping an eye on the results from sunderland, whatever. yes. it could be interesting, at wandsworth, justine greening, 10,000
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majority so highly likely to retain that seat for the conservatives. but for the conservatives, tooting and battersea could be interesting. , tooting of course the former seat of the mirror of london. and when he stood down, it was held by the labour party, the majority was just over 6000. and the conservatives have been covering tooting for the last two elections cycles, poured money, campaigners. and they really thought certainly up until the last few days of the campaign that they had been making inroads. i have been talking to labour activists and they are confident they are going to hang on to tooting, getting activists to come to tooting. and the feeling is that they have been doing pretty well. the final say, battersea, killed by the conservatives and jane
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ellison, —— held by the conservatives and jane ellison and if the overall exit poll is anything to go by, it could be that labour have taken this. interesting times. we are waiting for sunderland south. and there they are counting. what should we look out for, in terms of verifying the exit poll? this is the first real test of the exit poll, this was the 2015 share of the vote. we do not expect that to change. ukip, second place. the conservatives, third, 18. if the forecast is on track, labour will go up forecast is on track, labour will go up to 68%. keep that in your mind. and when the real result comes in,
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around there, we know that the exit poll is correct, at this part of the world at least. it could be a big drop for ukip. some gains for conservatives. and large gains for labour, 14%. that is what we will be putting beside the exit poll to see if that makes sense. john curtice was in charge of the exit poll, done by these broadcasting companies. what would you like to say about this? surprised ? what would you like to say about this? surprised? i think what would you like to say about this? surprised? ithink we what would you like to say about this? surprised? i think we should a lwa ys this? surprised? i think we should always start with exit polls, suggesting what we can rule out. u nless suggesting what we can rule out. unless the exit poll is incredibly wrong, the prime minister has failed to achieve the principal objective, that she was going to achieve the landslide, at least a very big majority for the party in the house of commons, providing potentially some more wriggle room over brexit. the second thing that we can
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probably rule out, the labour party going to end up with more seats than the conservatives. probably talking about theresa may or at least somebody from the conservatives at the head of the next administration. thereafter, the exit poll talking about at the moment 314 conservative seats, short of the majority, two yea rs seats, short of the majority, two years ago it said was going to be 316 and then it ended up 331. being certainly, we cannot rule out the possibility that the conservatives are still going to have an overall majority, but possibly one that is not bigger than when the election was called. thank you. and a reminder how it would look in the house of commons. ready? we can take a look at the house of commons. we have got this device. the coalition builder. win the election campaign
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began, we thought this is not how it is going to end up. but when you put together the 326 mp5 for the overall majority, this is what we have. this is from the exit poll. we keep having to say that without having the result. we are going to pull them out one at a time. the conservatives. 314. and as you can see, 326 line here. can they find some alliances? getting them the majority in the house of commons, not even the coaltion but a working relationship, to get the queen's speech through? 2010, it was the liberal democrats. this time, it is not going to work. they have been burned by that. the
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democratic unionists, in northern ireland, happy to work with the conservatives in the past, at least vote by vote, but the trouble is that they need 326. so far, so far short of that, 322 with the dup. no ukip mp. not on the exit poll. the situation, is that they have fallen short. for the conservatives this could be really awkward. the exit poll would not, hold on, the other side! all of the parties on the other side of the house of commons. the exit poll could be slightly wrong, and it would change things drastically. shall we just tried this quickly, with labour? the numbers. again, it is tricky. the numbers. again, it is tricky. the numbers have said similar things about labour, as the conservatives. but we can try this. just
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visualising. 266. maybe, something, some way of getting the snp to work, vote by vote, bill by bill, to get the queen's speech? labour and the scottish national party. that would make 300. still short. and we can put in lib dems for the sake of it. still nowhere near. it is all theoretical. dealing with numbers that we have not had confirmed. but it is now easier for labour to put any team together, this exit poll is some extraordinary because it leaves all of the parties stop —— stuck. some extraordinary because it leaves all of the parties stop -- stuck. we can look at one of the building blocks of that. jeffrey donaldson,
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of the dup, in northern ireland, the last time around you has eight mps. if that happened again, what is your view of what you do? and what do you make of the selection, called to get the prime minister the overall majority? good evening from lisburn, northern ireland. this is perfect territory for the dup. if the conservatives are short of an overall majority it puts us in a strong and go shooting position. that is one that we would take with relish. and what would the negotiating position be? just for those who do not know?” negotiating position be? just for those who do not know? i am not going to spell that out in detail add this stage. as of 2015, with aspects of elation and in the conservatives managed the overall majority. i am conservatives managed the overall majority. iam not
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conservatives managed the overall majority. i am not going to pre—empt the outcome. but we are going to the serious players with a hung parliament, talking to whoever it is, and it looks as the conservatives would be the largest party. we have got a lot in common. we wa nt party. we have got a lot in common. we want brexit working for the united kingdom. and for northern ireland, we want the union strengthened, and the conservatives are committed to that. i think we have got a lot of common ground on which we could work. and obviously we wa nt which we could work. and obviously we want the best deal for northern ireland. something up your sleeve from viewers? we know that you were in favour of brexit, shoulder to the wheel on that. what else have you been thinking about?” wheel on that. what else have you been thinking about? i have been a negotiator in northern ireland for a number of yours and i know that any serious negotiator does not reveal their hand in advance, and we are
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not going to do that. but i can give you some clues. in the past, we have operated under vote by vote basis, with the government and looked at issues as they have arisen in the house of commons. it could be a different scenario this time. thank you. you had a point, laura? in this previous parliament when the conservatives have origi been dealing with a small majority, they have been dependent on the dup, used to dealing with them paying the scenes. and the dup, tending to take a stronger line on brexit than the tories, they are used to pressing the levers, to get things out of the conservatives. and in terms of 326, sinn fein mps do not tend to take seats. the actual number that they
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are looking at, 323. if it is going to be finely balanced. never taken seats? no. michelle. we can go to you. but we will keep an eye on sunderland. with me, the chair of momentum, organisation set—top to support the leadership ofjeremy corbyn. what could this exit poll mean forjeremy corbyn personally? he has fought a very successful campaign, which has resulted in to reason me failing to get the overwhelming majority that she was seeking. and she sought an election that she said several times she was not going to call, to get that. and she has utterly failed. jeremy has
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fought a fantastic campaign. despite that, the conservatives looking like the largest party. knowing jeremy corbyn, is she going to be trying to have those conversations, difficult though they are, with the scottish national party, liberal democrats, to get the route to number ten?” think it is far too early to be talking about those things. very small changes in these results. those could completely change the arithmetic. and it is not clear that's where we are. i think that is premature. thank you. one of the reasons that it is taking longer to count, turn out in sunderland up by five percentage points. still pretty good. the average was mid 60s last time. and when we do come to that, we mark the card. you have got the
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figures? if our exit poll is right, the labour candidate who got 21,000 votes last time may get 20,000... newcastle has a result and we will go there. newcastle are of the winners. they will have to read it out fast. i'm ready to declare the result for newcastle upon tyne. i, pat ritchie, returning officer, hereby give notice that the total numberof hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for newcastle upon tyne central can the constituency is as follows. nick cott, liberal democrats, 1812. steve kite, conservative party candidate,
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9100 and 34. david millward, uk independence party, 1482. chi onwurah, labour party, 4071. stuart thomson, green party candidate, 5075. and chi onwurah has been duly elected to serve as member for the constituency. so here for the first time is the way we will show the results tonight, no surprise that chi onwurah has held the seat with a majority of 14,000,
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up the seat with a majority of 14,000, up 2200 from last time. let's hear from her. the terrible murder of jo cox just a year from her. the terrible murder of jo coxjust a year ago from her. the terrible murder of jo cox just a year ago and following the atrocious attacks in manchester and london, it is banks to our police and r services that the democratic process can come to such a successful conclusion and i would also like to thank the returning officer and all the staff here. there are efficient and extremely quick count, and they also glad to see that the national youth council... the counters in sunderland, newcastle rather, looking pleased with themselves. let's see this share and this tells you the story, labour on 65%,
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conservatives on 25, the change since last time, labour up ten and the conservatives at ten percentage points, ukip down 11 and the swing from conservative to labour, 2%. peter, in your view that is better for the conservatives and worse for labour than the exit poll suggests. the projection from the exit poll to the seat suggested a split of 74% and 14, we have 65, 25, so the exit poll projected 7% swing and we have a2% poll projected 7% swing and we have a 2% swing. this is a safe seat, the exit polls will not be reliable in these seats. let me ask john curtice. peter these seats. let me ask john cu rtice. peter ca navan says these seats. let me ask john curtice. peter canavan says it is not as accurate. that is right and i
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can tell you why we forecasted a big swing. the exit poll looks as though it found that labour would do better in the seats it was defending where there was a substantial remain vote as opposed to those places with a substantial leave vote, so we do not expect laboured to do as well in sunderland as in newcastle, but we should note the direction of travel. it is aid to labour, it is a safe seat but it is the first sign of the night that maybe the country will drift from the conservatives to the labour party. from the conservatives to labour? yes, we have a 2% swing to labour? yes, we have a 2% swing to labour. but not for the conservatives to overtake labour. and newcastle was 50—50. conservatives to overtake labour. and newcastle was 50-50. but it is a more pro—remain labour seat than
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sunderland. nothing seems to have happened in sunderland. that increase in the turnout in newcastle is something that has occurred early broadly across the country and given that one of the questions about the selection was whether people would turn out, young people in particular, i would guess the labour party would be guard the evidence that turnout is up as encouraging. do you have evidence about young people? we don't, but i can tell you that in general we are finding that in constituencies where there are a large numberof in constituencies where there are a large number of graduates, who are disproportionately younger, we expect labour to do better than in places with fewer graduates. it looks like that part of britain which was predominantly remain will
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be relatively good territory for labour and that part of britain will be relatively good for the conservatives, so this makes end up having been a brexit selection even though the issue of brexit disappeared off the campaign agenda. i think we have the sunderland result. i, irene lucas, acting returning officer, give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate in sunderland is as follows. richard peter bradley, green party, 725. pauljohn legend, liberal democrats, 908. paul campbell, conservative party, 12300
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and 24. michael anthonyjoyce, campbell, conservative party, 12300 and 24. michaelanthonyjoyce, uk independence party, 2371. jess may philipson, labour party, 24,000... cheering independent, 479. may philipson has been elected. they may be able to count ina been elected. they may be able to count in a hurry but they need to ta ke count in a hurry but they need to take control of their sound system. labour won but the conservatives are
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up labour won but the conservatives are up more than labour in that seat. ukip went down and if i heard it right, the conservatives are up from 7000. we don't seem to have all the figures in, we may have missed the labourfigure, we figures in, we may have missed the labour figure, we are trying to find it out and then we can explain what happened but it looks as though... the conservatives have done substantially better than the exit poll and labour have done worse. these are 20 miles apart so there may be something going on in safe labour seats that the exit poll hasn't picked up for the exit poll might be wrong, we will have to wait two or three hours to find out. both of those seats have seen a significant following for ukip. for the conservatives from the start of the conservatives from the start of the selection, their central strategy was ukip voters who might
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have been previously labour voters, they hoped would go to the conservatives and there are 71 seats where the labour majority was smaller than the ukip vote in 2015. the pattern in these safe labour seats that ukip is crashing and the conservatives need that to happen across the country if they are to form a majority. it looks like ukip is not crashing as completely to the conservatives as some projections expected, and that may be quite labour is doing better than in some polls. we still haven't got the figures for the share for sunderland because apparently a microphone failed at the count. do you have it on twitter? nobody ‘s got it. we will try and get it in due course. let's go to what was tim farron's
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seat and join lucy manning. we are outside tim farron's house, we expect him back here quite soon, if the exit poll is right this will be seen as a pretty good night for the liberal democrats, even if they only gaina the liberal democrats, even if they only gain a handful of seats, expectations were so low because there was such criticism of the campaign, offering at second vote on brexit and questions about tim farron's leadership that now with this exit polls suggesting they could get 14 seats, it leaves some potentially as a kingmaker and yesterday on the bus i talked over the idea there would be a hung parliament and what the liberal democrats would do, and he was clear there would be no deals, part broad coalition, notes apply where they voted for the budget. everyone
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remembers the liberal democrats got burnt when they went into coalition and lost seats at the last election and lost seats at the last election and he doesn't want to repeat that and he doesn't want to repeat that and lib dems sources to night were clear that remains the same, no deals or coalitions, so if there is a hung parliament the liberal democrats will be in a situation where both sides might want them but they will only offer support on a vote by vote basis. i'm not sure this exit poll is right, they are being cautious, in previous years the exit polls had them on more seats than they got, they say some of the key battles are too close to call, they are seeing a hardening of the vote for labour in some universities seats they hoped to get, but at the moment they are more optimistic than they thought they would be. whether they have that traction, we will discover. we now have the
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sunderland south result, a safe labour seat. there are the raw figures. ukip in third place, conservatives going up into second place and the change since last time, there is the change. conservatives of 11 percentage points. a swing here from labour to conservatives of 3.5%. peter, what do you make of that? the exit poll expectation was a swing in the opposite direction, to labour, so these results will be cheering the conservatives up after a grim hour following the exit poll but whether that she will carry on through the battle ground seats that matter where the majority is narrower, that will have to wait. what will you look for next as a test? these are
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seats in the north—east, where would you want to get your spread?m seats in the north—east, where would you want to get your spread? it may be an artwork too, because the seeds rushed to declare and there may not be many... slough is going quite quickly, i don't know. that will be interesting, swindon north, battersea and putney, where the conservatives might be vulnerable, justine greening, the education secretary in putney. tooting, a labour seat, these are the kind of seats but a lot of these will wait until 1am ought to william, these early declarations were their rush to get the counts done with them and are but that is the exception, everywhere else will take longer. wordsjoined by a everywhere else will take longer. words joined by a familiar figure from politics, neil hamilton who is
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now the welsh leader of ukip. it looks like wipe—out for ukip. you've done yourjob and got your brexit and that's it. we have been squeezed. theresa may intended this to bea squeezed. theresa may intended this to be a binary competition between labour and tories although it has not worked out that way her disastrous campaign that ukip has an enduring place in welsh politics. we have members in the welsh assembly for the next four years and i believe after the selection we will believe after the selection we will be able to carve out a permanent niche for ourselves in uk politics because we put forward a lot of policies which no other parties can copy us on like slashing the non—humanitarian aid budget to put money into the health service, slashing the green budget, none of that came out in this campaign which was focused for ukip supporters on
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the brexit issue and a lot of them had gone to the tories, without which theresa may's position would have been bleak. it looks like ukip won't have any seat in westminster, you don't expect to gain seats, so your strength will be in wales. that was meant to be a tease! i wasn't actually saying you could rebound from wells. in wales we have proportional representation, so we getfair proportional representation, so we get fair representation, unlike in the first past the post system in westminster. let's hear what reaction has been for these two results. there is the initial shock in conservative circles, and thought about longer term implications. tim montgomerie, a conservative writer, has tweeted that theresa may has been the most disastrous tory leader
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since anthony eden and talk about how long she will last as leader. the political editor of the sun has beenin the political editor of the sun has been in touch with senior tories who say they have crunched their own numbers and are convinced the exit poll is wrong. the quote he has is that it doesn't add up. there is talk about what this means for brexit and alistair campbell, one of the most vigorous opponents of theresa may and her plans for our ha rd theresa may and her plans for our hard brexit says this election is a rejection of hard brexit, a vote for one to go and the other to be revisited and that will be part of the discussion, and we have some foreign reaction because the former swedish foreign minister has said this could be messy for the uk in the years ahead, one mess risks following another, a price to be
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paid for the lack of true leadership, so the raw international implications and opponents of theresa may in europe are looking at this with some glee. laura, what would theresa may need to get to quell anxiety, furious, plotting against her in the conservative party? she has heard the exit poll, what will she be thinking she needs to remain prime minister?m what will she be thinking she needs to remain prime minister? if the exit poll is anything like right, it is very dicey for her indeed because even after the campaign, one senior conservative said today after the mistake she has made in the campaign she will not be allowed to fight the next general election. that was one view but the member of the party seeing —— said seeing her not being
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able to run a resounding campaign, her time was limited in terms of staying on. this could be wrong, a significant majority could blow her out of the water but people have been saying that if it was 34 below, she is very damaged. most tories would have been happy with the majority of 50 or 60 but if the polls are right she is miles from that, so if she ends up with no overall majority she is damaged but evenif overall majority she is damaged but even if she climbed to a majority of 25 or30, even if she climbed to a majority of 25 or 30, she is still very tarnished by this. she had a working majority of 17. which was uncomfortable and difficult, she had to change her mind and drop policies, she made her chancellor ditch the central part of his budget because the party wouldn't wear it
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but she did have a majority and could get things done. she didn't have to call the selection. do you think she could change her chancellor? everybody said hammond was on the way out. it was expected if she got a majority she would sack philip hammond, you would never know. but she will not be in a strong position to offend other parts of the party. in terms of the current balance of the conservative party, cheerleaders for mr hammond would not be in great enough numbers to force her to keep him, but if the political situation seems rocky in terms of the economic reaction, changing a chancellor who was respected by the city would not be seen as a wise move. it's notjust us sitting here in the studio talking, all over the country, many
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places are busy counting. in islington, where jeremy places are busy counting. in islington, wherejeremy corbyn's seat is counted and emily thornberry‘s seat is counted, huddersfield, where there are a clutch of marginal truancy is, in west yorkshire where the conservatives were hoping to make ground, two seats in derby, labour's margaret beckett, and then westmorland and lonsdale, tim farron's constituency, all these people brought in as volunteers, paid, sometimes bank clerks paid overtime and it is responsible work and tiring. you have to open each one and verify it, not electronic, all done by hand and that is why it is taking time and if it is true that the turnout everywhere is up, the slower pace of results is what
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we can expect. with me is the former labour home secretary jack straw. when jeremy corbyn was first elected you said he would lead labour to political oblivion but the exit polls suggest labour has made gains. and if that's the case i'm delighted because i have been in the labour party slightly longer than jeremy corbyn and have been working for a labour victory. this election, it's perfectly public that a lot of people in the parliamentary party had reservations about jeremy people in the parliamentary party had reservations aboutjeremy but one interesting thing is that the labour party as a whole has been very disciplined, it has got behind jeremy corbyn and the manifesto and if this exit poll is anything to go buy it suggests we have done better than most people thought. are you suggesting it's more about the party
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and the party machine than a person? it's also a great personal credit to jeremy corbyn and john mcdonnell if this is correct because what we have seen, i didn't expect it, is great vigour and consistency by the labour party, including on the ground by candidates, and again a thing i didn't expect was that in place of a strong and stable leader, to coin a phrase, we had a week and wobbly leader and this is a disasterfor both the conservative party and theresa may, the over silver lining for them and the country may be if it ends up with a hung parliament and conservatives being the larger party, we may get a more sensible set of negotiations for brexit than otherwise. it depends where she looks for support, if it's the dup,
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the obvious people she will turn to in the first instance. i have worked in the first instance. i have worked in the minority government, i worked in the minority government, i worked in the 1974-1979 in the minority government, i worked in the 1974—1979 labour government and in that situation you have to compromise with your own side and also the other side, it's the way the alchemy of parliament works. jack straw, thank you. we had a query on twitter about the exit poll, people saying maybe 25% of people have classed postal ballots. you stand your people at secret, because i have asked you to tell me where you are, secret polling stations around the country, 144. what happens with the postal alerts? we are comparing how people who went to the polling station voted this time without those people
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who went to the same polling station two years ago voted, so the assumption we are essentially making is not necessarily that postal voters will vote the same way as those at the polling station but the movement in whatever direction will be similar among those who written by post. so it's a sample. they may behave differently but one thing we love that was how polling stations va ry love that was how polling stations vary in the proportion of people registered to vote i post, but there isn't a relationship between this went to conservatives warned labour and the proportion of people registered to vote by post. is it possible under your exit poll that there could be a substantial conservative majority? it depends how you define substantial or big.”
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would say an majority is toast now. if the exit poll is as wrong everywhere else as in these first two results, it could have 80 or 100 majority but still if you dial that done, 30 or 40. a majority of 30 or 40, we still have to regard as possible. 80 or 100, we will still be astray. one thing that often happens with exit polls, they exaggerate the forecast in terms of differences between constituencies, so because we are looking at two labour constituencies in both of which we expect a substantial swing to labour, a bigger swing than across the country, we may have exaggerated the extent to which that is going on. i will come back to you
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but tatty adler is standing by in brussels and let's join but tatty adler is standing by in brussels and let'sjoin her. have you had a reaction to this uprising exit poll that we have had this evening? no official reaction because we are talking about exit polls but i would love to see because we are talking about exit polls bu bubbles love to see because we are talking about exit polls bu bubbles here to see because we are talking about exit polls bu bubbles here in see because we are talking about exit polls bu bubbles here in brussels and thought bubbles here in brussels and eu circles in berlin and paris tonight because it is in all these places across europe that politicians are glued to their tv and radio sets, notjust in the uk : gt. t. % this t gt. it. % this g have a big impact because this will have a huge impact on brexit. the eu didn't really care how these elections turned out, what flavour of government would come out, but nearly a year on after the eu referendum they want to get down to business. they were hoping to start face—to—face negotiations with
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the uk in ten days and now there is a big? hanging over it. they wanted a big? hanging over it. they wanted a strong and secure prime minister who would be in place for the negotiations' durability, someone who knew their mind and would not be beholden to smaller groups in or outside their party because the eu doesn't want someone who wavers and makes u—turns and doesn't know their mind, and this is most important for the uk because the clock is ticking, article 50 was triggered, the countdown to brexit has started in the uk only has until march 2019th to get that divorce deal signed, sealed and delivered, never mind a future trade deal so - hesitation future trade deal so any hesitation is costly for lsgsggtkjgths .l!!’.. tgz. .. . .. lsgsggtkjgths .l.!v.. :1.. .. . .. to lsgsggtkjgths .l.!v.. 1.11. 11 1 11 to get lsgsggtkjgths .l.!v. 1.11. 11 1 11 to get a majority you said they didn't care
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because you said they didn't care but from what to say, if they want clarity and a leader who knows what clarity and a leader who knowswhg doing and doesn't have to clarity and a leader who knowswhg doing and doe: big 1ave to egéfifigféfifllifigfzfi mi bassififlfi} 7. ”t" ::%;:; may would . ~ ~ ~ .. ieirfiifiifimjiiiii mi msiiflfi} *’ ”t” ::%;:; may would help ~ .. ieirfiifiifimjiiiii mi msiiflfi} *’ ”t” 7g may would help them. = for theresa may would help them. they didn't want theresa may more thanjeremy they didn't want theresa may more than jeremy corbyn or anyone they didn't want theresa may more thanjeremy corbyn or anyone else, they just wanted a thanjeremy corbyn or anyone else, theyjust wanted a prime minister who would be secure enough to know their mind and push it forward, to a chief the achief “sit?“ 1 1 1 the eu isef “sit?“ 1 1 1 the eu isthe “sit?“ 1 1 1 most for the eu is the most important figure, the person who will sit opposite them with the chief eu negotiator who comes from the european commission and they will battle it out month by month right up battle it out month by month right up until the last minute, by all brussels deals in the past, so they need a government that is stable but not for eu tastes theresa may or jeremy corbyn or anyone but someone who will be in that seat for the
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duration of negotiations. there was criticism of the campaign, we had john mcdonnell complaining that brexit never surfaced, he john mcdonnell complaining that brexit neve brusselsi, he john mcdonnell complaining that brexit neve brussels and the eu here. from brussels and the eu perspective, the uk seemed to tear itself apart after the eu £5. remainders and then believers and remainders and then dived into preparations for a general election and in the meantime, almost 12 months have gone by and the eu has been quietly getting its brexit ducks in a row, it has its chief negotiator in place, he has his team and they have
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been dotting the is and crossing the ts, they have issued draft negotiating papers on points like the amount of money it wants the uk to pay before it leaves the uk —— the eu, the rights of eu citizens in the eu, the rights of eu citizens in the uk and the rights of uk citizens in this eu. theresa may and also had a brexit planned that they did not want to dive el zhar. —— they did not want to discuss that. the eu, there are so many players involved they cannot keep anything a secret. they are being transparent, they are publishing all of this and a lot of details are prepared already. cambridge, let us go to cambridge,
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labour party holds the seat, liberal democrats were hoping to take it. is your imgresggg - the aw”? 777555 7:7 ”zitm’i 5l" aw”? ttti; tt ttziwti tl" 5g aw”? ttti; tzt ttiini tl" ham-f"; may1 11 11 1 1 1 aw”? ttti; tzt ttiini tl" ham-f"; may have 1 1 1 aw”? ttti; t1t ttiini tl" may have taken = democrats think they may have taken cambridge, or the adam o'brien, that the labour party has kept it? —— orthe the labour party has kept it? —— or the other way round. that feeling is that labour is going to speak it and hold on. it is one of the tightest battle grounds in the country. the liberal democrats have fought on offering a second eu referendum. in cambridge, even if they cannot take cambridge, one of they cannot take cambridge, one of the highest remain votes in the country, the feeling is that that so—called lib dem surge will not happen despite what the exit poll is saying. the student will is key here. there are about 13,000
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registered voters, we do not know whether they are going to vote, how they are going to vote, at cambridge, or at their home address, but the sensors that they have come out, it does mean a labour halls, but already thought of a recount here are not being ruled out. we have been seeing various counting centres. yours is particularly beautiful. where is it? it is different to the school gymnasium jones that are being used. it is in the guildhall. it -; near where that the guildhall. it is near where that leaders debate took place. it is very much in the centre of cambridge. if you talk about the eu referendum and the remain vote, 200 yards away from here is the constituency or that had the highest
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remain court in the entire united kingdom. let us go to hastings because there are smiles on the face of labour. that is right. labour seem pretty ecstatic. that is a big contrast from both the conservatives and the liberal democrats. the conservatives are looking tense and nervous tonight. talking to the conservative party chairman here, he says that they have had a positive campaign, but a strong vote in the county areas, but they were not keen to talk beyond that. this is held by the current home secretary amber rudd. no sign of her yet today. we have been told that she will not give any media interviews at all today. that remains to be seen. labour says they have had a fantastic campaign, despite this being a snap election, they say they
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mobilised 2000 volunteers, and have canvassed more homes in the area have done before. they say that is because ofjeremy corbyn. the liberal democrats say they are vote has been completely squeezed and the ava nt has been completely squeezed and the avant intimate has been completely squeezed and the ava nt intimate losing has been completely squeezed and the avant intimate losing their deposit here. sophie, two more declarations, what sophie, two more declarations; what the timetable? central is the one that sunderland central is the one that we are expecting next but it is taking an awful lot longer than it usually does. they are still counting the votes were sunderland central over there. one of the main reasons it is taking longer is because the turnout is up again in this seat. 62.1%. that is 5% higher thanit this seat. 62.1%. that is 5% higher than it was in 2015. it is a strange atmosphere here in this vast sports hall. people are baffled. they are not sure what to make of it all. when that exit poll came out at ten
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o'clock there was surprise amongst some labour supporters. they said they did not expect to see anything like that although others said it had been reflected on the doorsteps when they went out campaigning. something else we are hearing, some of the campaign officials are saying they believe that of the campaign officials are saying they be to 'e that 1111 . of the campaign officials are saying they be to more: 1111 . of the campaign officials are saying they be to more: people 111 . £33233; 21; gili agug; iiiili . t, t. engaging, that 15,3313; 11 gili 111-jg; iiiili . t, t. engaging, that is what they are sensing about this campaign. the next result we are going to get will be the sunderland central seat that m m
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