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tv   Brexit  BBC News  July 1, 2017 12:30am-1:01am BST

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with south korea's president moon jae—in at the white house, he said the menace of north korea should be met with a determined response. a gunman has opened fire at a hospital in new york city killing himself and one other person. six others are wounded. police say the shooter was a former employee at the bronx lebanon hospital. the indian prime minister, narendra modi, has officially launched what's been described as the biggest tax reform since the country became independent seventy years ago. the changes standardise taxes on goods and services. the german parliament has voted by a large majority to legalise same—sex marriage. the measure will grant gay and lesbian couples full marital rights, including the right to adopt children. now on bbc news: brexit: what's next? hello.
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i'm katya adler. and i'm kamal ahmed. for the next half hour, we'll try to bring the you the essential, up—to—date guide on the big issue that 33 and a half british people voted on a year ago — whether to remain inside or to leave the european union. that result, 17.5 for leaving the european union, and 16 million for remaining, was a majority for britain exiting the eu, what we all call brexit. but after an election result where nobody won a majority, what has changed? i'm heading to brussels to get some answers, and to speak to those on the other side of the negotiating table. and i am going the other way, to the north, to a town with a special place in my life, and which helps to tell the story of a very divided britain. rotherham in south yorkshire is the area where my mother was born. it voted firmly for brexit. but after a year of turmoil, i want to find out if views
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there have changed. it is famous for steel and coal, with factories and pits employing thousands — mostly gone, along with thejobs. today, the forges are silent at what was once the biggest steelworks in europe. it is now a science theme park. but new industries have taken root. newburgh precision makes high tech steel components for markets at home and abroad. the chairman of this company is vince middleton, and like many business leaders worried about britain leaving the eu, he wants out, and he says he has already been feeling a brexit bounce. certainly since the referendum, our orders have increased, our confidence has increased, our recruitment has increased. so from our point of view, we have seen a boost. a year ago, rotherham voted 2—1 to leave.
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at natter social club, i asked people if they changed their minds. what we voted for, to me, that's final. if the people what lost that vote, tough. immigration was an issue for me. you know, you've got 375,000 people from the world and europe coming into great britain. size of birmingham. where they going to live? where they going to go to school? where they going to work? you can't have that volume coming in without making plans for them, which we never did. i would be more than willing for our country to stand on its feet again. if we're going to go into a depression, fine, we'll do it for now, and we will rise again. and that is what i believe. so from what i heard, rotherham leavers haven't changed their mind, and their message to westminster is "get on with it". rotherham voted one way, but were i grew up, 160 miles south, in ealing, west london, it was the other way
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round, for remain. i'm coming to see someone who understands why rotherham and ealing think so differently — it's my mum. i don't think you were actually a teenager, quite, but you obviously fancied yourself as a teenager. i remember catching a train from sheffield to rotherham, and you could see all these furnaces, and workshops with fires going. and — and people — people were busy. people worked in the mines or they worked in the steelworks. i think they felt they had a place. why do you think around here — and in london, in general — voted very heavily to stay in? i don't think there's pressure on jobs as much here as there are in other parts of the country. being a very cosmopolitan city, that people are used to mixing with all sorts of different people. we all get on, on the whole, very well. we enjoy that diversity. it's something that we are proud of, and we are happy to be part of. two of my childhood friends, john and pierre, still live in london. i met them, and john's
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children, at a local haunt. how did you feel, the day after the actual referendum ? i felt really quite depressed. it was very sad to see that a lot of people had voted to leave. itjust — it felt like, what's next? what happens now? i am resigned to the fact that we are going to leave, but i'm also reassured by the fact that the election has resulted in a compromise. it's really put the brakes on brexit. now, pierre, you're a senior doctor in the nhs. has that affected the atmosphere around the health service? in my department, nearly half the consultants are european consultants. a hard brexit, in the most extreme sense, would be a disaster for britain. jade, do you think people understand a hard and soft brexit, and what those two terms by mean? i can't speak on behalf of the country, but i have no idea. not the whole country, maybe, butjade is speaking for many. this usually important debate is in danger of drowning and jargon. the phrases being used,
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like hard brexit and soft brexit are, of course, political, and, for many, are adding to the sense of confusion. but let's try and explain the differences. first, hard brexit — what some people have described as "clean brexit". bluntly, hard brexit means the uk is completely out of the eu. out of the single market, which allows the free movement of goods, people, services, and money, between all eu members. out of the customs union, in which all eu members buy and sell from each other without paying import taxes. and they all charge the same taxes on goods coming in from the rest of the world. britain would regain control. control of its borders and immigration. no more open door to people from the eu. control of employment rights and trade — a british rule book, not a eu one.
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control of its own trade deals with countries outside of the eu, like america, china, and india. many say hard brexit could cause economic damage, notjust to the uk, but also to the eu. we are the second largest economy in the eu. since the election, things have certainly become less clear. some people believe we should now be pushing for what is being described as a softer brexit. many argue this makes jobs and the economy the priority, more important than controlling immigration or regaining sovereignty. with a softer brexit, britain could gain special access to this in the market, but we might have to make it easier for eu immigrants to work here. we could just try to stay in that customs union, which would allow the free movement of goods, but not free movement of people. eu trade laws would apply,
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so the uk would have to sign its own trade deals with other countries. brexit is up there as one of the most dramatic european stories i have ever covered. the economics, the politics, the effect it can have on all of our lives. it's a real ripping up of the history books. brussels hosted the first day of negotiations between the eu and brexit britain just last week. in all the years i've lived and worked across europe, no one here saw this day coming. after 12 months as we had the eu referendum, only now are the face—to—face talks starting between the uk and the eu. and the eu still has no idea what the uk wants. we must first tackle the uncertainties caused by brexit. we will do all that we can to ensure
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that we deliver a deal that works in the best interests of all citizens. in order to make an informed guess about where these negotiations might end, you must first understand why the eu feels as it does about the uk leaving. when the result of the referendum was announced, there were was genuine shock in this town, and dismay, and a feeling that this could be the beginning of the end for the eu. brussels insiders told me they feared for their european dream. so you think brexit is a disaster for europe. on a scale of one to ten, what kind of disaster? ten. spanish mep esteban pons became a social media hit overnight when he delivered an impassioned speech on the breakup of eu unity. europe cannot be without the united kingdom.
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we have to invent another name, because europe without the united kingdom is not europe. britain was always seen as a very valued member of the european team on a number of levels, and that meant that other member countries to special deals for the uk to keep it sweet. we didn't have to join the eu currency, for example, and got a rebate on our contributions to the eu budget. but that was when were inside the club. now we're on our way out, and the eu says they have other priorities. i know the uk very well. i've been working a lot with british ministers in the last 20 years. they are very fine negotiations. but their other characteristic is they negotiate in their own interest. we are going to negotiate for our own interest, too. the european union is negotiating brexit on the half of all the eu's 27 member countries. nobody wants to punish
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the uk for its choice. one that is clear — the show must go on. the european show will go on. even if there will be some changes in the props department. so i've been told all of the flags of the european union are in this room. let's have a look. lithuania, latvia, ireland, italy... alphabetical order going that way... so where do i find our united kingdom? and there it is. ironically, seeing as we're talking about brexit, right next to the european union flag. i guess after the uk leaves, the european union, this flag will be taken out of this cupboard. i don't where it's going to go. the eu didn't know where it was going after the brexit vote. it was already reeling
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from the migration and euro crises and the rise of eurosceptics, like france's marine le pen. 12 months on, and it feels really different here. there's a new eu self—confidence in the air. and why? well, a lid has been put on the migrant crisis, and we have seen the eurosceptics squashed the polls, notably in france. as for the shock of brexit, farfrom ripping the eu apart, it's given normally bickering european countries into each other‘s arms, forming a united front. for now at least. what about how the eu now views the uk? has to changed ? there has been utter astonishment since the general election at the disarray in the uk. and they believe this chaos in british politics makes a deal harder to reach. one of the best—known champions of brexit works right here in brussels.
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he dismisses all the negative talk. you can't be a self—governing nation if you're part of a european union. you can't control your borders or immigration numbers. so it's the biggest constitutional change in our country since the 17th century. it's that getting back control of our laws. but will we? at the close of day one of eu—uk negotiations, brussels remained unclear about the kind of brexit britain was after. secretary of state, can the eu trust that what you ask for today or tomorrow will be what you asked for in a few days‘ time, given the political confusion at the moment in the uk? we'll be leaving the single market. we'll be seeking to set up a free trade arrangement. similarly, we'll be leaving the customs union. the circumstances have not changed at all. but from the eu perspective, everything has changed. i watched its chief negotiator lose his cool at this first press conference between the two sides.
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"the focus shouldn't be on compromising in brussels," he says, "the uk chose to leave the eu, not the other way around." so, despite a lingering sense of sadness, the mood music right now in europe is this — brexit, if you are sure you really want it, bring it on. after a general election that nobody quite won, the big question is this for brexit. what, if anything, has changed? how do you think that election result has changed the approach that britain will take to the brexit negotiations? i think it's changed it pretty fundamentally. theresa may went to the country saying this is my mandate for an extreme form of brexit and she didn't get it.
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so we start the negotiations in a position where there is no clear mandate and the prime minister's lost authority abroad. overall i don't think it makes a very big difference if any because the government set out the direction of travel. we didn't say we would part leave the european union, we said we would leave it and that's what we're going to do. doctor fox, you can't seriously be saying that nothing has changed since theresa may failed to get a majority in parliament and lead a majority government? in parliament will it be easier with an overall majority? of course it won't. but the government approach will be the same because we believe what we set out is in our national interest. i think many people who campaigned to remain in the european union really feel the tide is turning. just a few weeks ago they seemed down and out but now they're going back into battle, fighting for a different kind of brexit.
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are splits between parties splits within parties? the chancellor philip hammond made his intervention in a speech to city and business leaders. when the british people voted last june, they did not vote to become poorer oi’ less secure. they did vote to leave the eu and we will leave the eu. but it must be done in a way that works for britain. and i'm confident we can do a brexit deal that puts jobs and prosperity first. that keeps our markets for goods and services and capital open, that achieves early agreement on transitional arrangements to avoid unnecessary disruption and dangerous cliff edges. what really struck me about philip hammond's speech at the mansion house was the sharp change in tone.
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he talked aboutjobs and prosperity in contrast to theresa may before the general election. she was much more focused on immigration and on sovereignty. the message from the public before and during the referendum campaign was clear. brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to britain from europe and that is what we will deliver. next—door neighbours but different approaches. mrs may wants to cut immigration to the tens of thousands. the chancellor is keener to promote immigration as good for the economy, a view shared by political rivals. we've said jobs and the economy must be the priority. at his mansion house speech he said jobs and prosperity must be the priority. so that's almost the same language as we've been using. is there common ground between you, between the liberal democrats, and mr hammond's position that he's outlined ?
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i think there's a lot of common ground with him and i believe a lot of people in the labour party who can see the potential disasters of going into a really hard, disruptive, extreme form of brexit and i think ourjob is to reach out to them and find ways of achieving compromise. so where might those compromises come? let's look at honda's factory in swindon. it's the european single market in action. every day, two million components are delivered here, many of them from across europe with no hold—ups at the border. if we leave the customs union, it could spell trouble for some. we don't want our components stuck abroad, we don't want our car is going to europe stuck on this side of the channel. it's really keeping that free flow of product going. one compromise would be to stay in the customs union where goods can cross borders within the eu
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without import taxes. but that's not government policy at the moment. it wants out. for me it's about getting what we promised the british people, getting control of the laws and getting control of the borders. uou cannot do those things if we remain inside the single market and inside the customs union. if you want the benefits of brexit, being able to get new trade agreements so we can access the growing markets of the world, then that requires the model we set out. the customs union will be one of the big battles over the next few months. if we stay inside it, as many big businesses want, that could mean we won't be allowed to sign free trade deals with countries outside the european union. but if that happens then frankly liam fox would be out of a job. and how long would any deal take? well, the eu divorce is meant to be completed by 2019. david davis says the transition
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to a new relationship after that could take a further two years. others are not as optimistic. to do this in a sensible way... we are talking decades rather than years. the transitional arrangement will probably be in the order of about three years. it may be that it would have to be extended but i generally think we should be able to get the divorce aspect in the two—year framework and then probably about three years to transition. i think we have to wait and see how the negotiations go, but on the essential point, is it reasonable to have a transitional period if required for the stability of our business and maintaining the market opportunities in europe? that's perfectly reasonable. they may well try and dress it up as a transitional period to stop a huge amount of public anger, but i do think there's now a significant shift in british politics that says to me the 17.5 million people who voted brexit are probably not going to get what they voted for.
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a soft brexit, a slower brexit. some in europe even suggest that britain could stay in the eu. is there any way you could foresee britain staying within the european union? there's about as much chance of us staying in the european union as of me finding truth very. —— the tooth fairy there was audible spluttering across europe when in the lead up to the eu referendum borisjohnson said, you know what, we can have our cake and eat it, we can leave the eu but keep the good bits. from an eu point of view it's like me coming into this cake shop and saying... bonjour, i'd like, oh, the blueberry from on top of that cake, all the lovely chocolate flakes from around that one and yes, i would like the raspberries from right in the middle of that cake.
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thank you. and off i go, leaving the cake shop to sort out the mess. we are hearing a firm but friendly attitude towards the uk but no, boris johnson is totally wrong. he's sure that in the end brussels will do a deal. this is the city of deals often at the 11th hour. you british invented the clubs and when you're in the club you have some privileges, and not being an eu member means you lose some privileges. you can't have the best of the two worlds, that's just impossible. if we would do so that it would encourage all members to leave. however hard the eu tries to market its tough—guy approach, make no mistake, it wants a deal with the uk. after all, if the uk economy nosedives, that has a big impact on the rest of europe.
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but brussels insists it won't do a deal at any price. when the eu thinks about brexit, it wants to do everything to protect the european single market. it's the biggest trade area in the whole world, right now made up of more than 500 million potential customers. thing is, it's notjust about goods and trade, it's about the free movement of people as well, so when uk politicians say they want full control of immigration but they want to retain the full benefits of the european single market, brussels says that's pie in the sky. a taste of things to come then? an eu no to compromise when it comes to its rules and principles? but is that realistic? isn't it true that the eu has all the cards? what you're saying is that our european partners would treat us as international pariahs, not want our business, not want our markets,
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not want our money. the people hurt most would be german car manufacturers, french wine producers. i tell you what the eu really needs more than anything and that's our market. now, there is an assumption that all this dealmaking with the eu basically comes down to money and the germans will be pushing hard for a good deal to sell us more and more cars. but to think that would be to fundamentally misunderstand germany and its attitude to the eu. hitler's march across europe and the horror that followed still loom large in european minds. the eu was born out of the ashes of world war two. eu unity symbolises democracy and security here. for germany it was the chance for a new start. we tend to underestimate in britain the importance and the way
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in which europe and the eu is part of the german dna, part of the european dna. it was the way back for germany into respectability after the horrors of the second world war. so this idea that of course the germans are going to push for a favourable deal for the united kingdom because they want to sell us lots of cars, what do you make of that? they're not standing up and saying to the german government we must access to the british market. what they're saying is if you've the german government have decided the unit of 27 is more important than access to the uk market, so be it, and we will live with that. contemplating the future of eu/uk relations, i keep coming back to the unknowns. what will a deal look like? how long would it take to agree? what happens if it all falls apart? be under no illusions, if we don't get those deals and if we don't get that agreement, whilst everyone will suffer,
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britain would be a lot worse off than our former european partners. they have very many options for them than we do. the european union, its single market is the largest single export market for british goods and services. it's where 50% of our exports go. in the uk many see brexit as an exciting chance for new beginnings, whereas brussels is convinced this is a lose—lose scenario for everybody. the warning here to the uk is stark, there'll be little cake left on the plate after brexit, just a lot of salt and vinegar. saturday does not look bad at all across most of the uk. we are in for some sunshine and warm weather.
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there is a little rainfall on the way in the north—west but it should not be too heavy. in the short term, a fair bit of cloud and some light rain. damp weather across east anglia in the south—east overnight. many northern and north—western areas are a lot clearer, where we will have fresh weather early in the morning. in fact, in parts of northern ireland, possibly even in rural areas, a touch of grass frost. temperatures in the towns and cities will be 10—14 degrees. looking at the weather across northern areas first of all. this is first thing in the morning across scotland. absolutely fine and the sun should be out. the clouds are increasing in the western isles and we have light rain heading to stornoway. that will push into scotland and northern ireland later on. dry in belfast. notice that apart from the western fringes of wales here in cornwall there is a fair bit cloud around but it will be mostly thin cloud and through the morning into the afternoon, those clouds will be breaking up and we really are in
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for a decent day. see the sunshine there developing as that shade melts away. at the same time we also have a weather front getting into scotland and northern ireland so around the middle of the afternoon i think there will be spots of rain in belfast, glasgow as well. coolest around 15—17 degrees but where the sun comes out for any lengthy period of time across england it should reach 20 degrees, possibly 2a in london. compare to the rest of europe, temperatures are similar across the heart of europe but incredibly hot across the south—east of europe. athens, for example, 43 degrees. that is europe. back to the uk. this is saturday night. the damp weather in the north—west that i spoke about will be moving southwards during the course of the early hours of sunday. that means that early on sunday morning, there could be some damp weather across east anglia and the south—east but it should clear out of the way and basically we are left over with a very decent sunday once with some sunny spells.
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a little fresher. low 20s in london, 16 in glasgow but also some showers in the forecast there too for northern scotland. sunday into monday, the weather front is moving in so there is a little rain and the forecast for early in the week. that is the weekend. let's look at the weekend summary. does not look bad at all. dry weather with sunny spells and it will feel pleasantly warm. this is bbc news my name is gavin grey. our top stories: hong kong is marking 20 years of chinese rule. these pictures show resident xi jinping leading celebrations as china's flag rises over the former british territory. the era of patience is over: president trump and his south korean counterpart have called for a tough
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and united response to the security threat posed by north korea. the battle for mosul: iraq says it will recapture the city from the so—called islamic state in a few days, but the fighting remains fierce.


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