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tv   Brexit  BBC News  July 1, 2017 8:30pm-9:01pm BST

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to march against austerity. the veteran film critic and former bbc presenter barry norman has died at the age of 83. now on bbc news, the negotiations have begun over the uk's departure from the european union. what is the future now that theresa may's election gamble failed to deliver the clear mandate she wanted for her brexit talks with the eu? the bbc‘s europe editor katya adler and economics editor kamal ahmed speak to major players on both sides of the table, in brexit: what's next? hello, i'm katya adler. and i'm kamal ahmed. for the next half hour, we'll
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try to bring you the essential, up—to—date guide on the big issue that 33 and a half million people in britain voted on a year ago — whether to remain inside or to leave the european union. that result — 17 and a half million for leaving and 16 million for remaining — was a majority for britain exiting the eu, what we all call brexit. but after an election result where no—one won a majority, what's changed? well, i'm heading to brussels to get some answers and to speak to those on the other side of the negotiating table. and i'm going the other way. to the north — to a town with a special place in my life and which helps to tell the story of a very divided britain. rotherham in south yorkshire is the area where my mother was born. it voted firmly for brexit. but after a year of turmoil, i want to find out if views there have changed. for years, rotherham was famous for steel
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and for coal, with factories and pits employing thousands. mostly gone now, along with thejobs. today, the forges are silent at what was once the biggest steelworks in europe. it's now a science theme park. but new industries have taken root. newburgh precision makes hi—tech steel components for markets at home and abroad. the chairman is vince middleton. unlike many business leaders worried about britain leaving the eu, he wants out, and says he's already been feeling a brexit bounce. certainly since the referendum, our orders have increased, our confidence has increased, our recruitment‘s increased, so from our personal point of view, we've seen a boost. he's confident too that british industry can thrive outside the eu, if politicians get it right. a year ago, rotherham voted two—to—one to leave. at natters social club,
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i asked if people had changed their minds. what we voted for, to me, that's final. if the people that lost that vote — tough. immigration was an issue for me. you know, we've got 375,000 people from the world and europe, coming into great britain, size of birmingham. where are they going to live? where are they going to go to school? where are they going work? you can't have that volume coming in without making plans for them, which we never did. i would be more than willing for our country to stand on its own feet again. if we're going into a depression, fine, we'll do it for now but we will rise again. and that's what i believe. so, from what i heard, rotherham leavers haven't changed their minds. and their message loud and clear to westminster is — get on with it.
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rotherham voted one way, but where i grew up — 160 miles south in ealing, west london — it was the other way around, for remain. i'm coming to see someone who understands why rotherham and ealing felt so differently, my mum. i don't think you were quite a teenager there, but you obviously fancied yourself as a teenager! i remember going on the train from sheffield to rotherham. you passed all these furnaces, you could see the workshop with the fires going, and people were busy. people worked in the mines or the steel works, i think they felt that they had a place. now, why do you think round here and london in general voted very heavily to stay in? i don't think there's pressure on jobs so much around here as there is in other parts of the country. being a very cosmopolitan city, people are used to mixing with all sorts of different people. we all get on, on the whole, very well. we enjoy that diversity, it's something we're very proud of and we're happy to be part of. two of my childhood friends, john and pier, still live in london.
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i met them — and john's children — at a local haunt. how did you feel the day after the actual referendum ? i felt really quite depressed, it was very sad to see that a lot of people had voted to leave. it was just like what was next then, what happens now? i am resigned to the fact we are going to have to leave, but i am also reassured by the fact that the election has resulted in a compromise, that has really put the brakes on brexit, as it were. pier, you are a senior doctor in the nhs — has it affected the atmosphere around the health service? in my department, nearly half of the consultants are european consultants. a hard brexit in the most extreme sense would be a disasterfor britain. jade, do you think people understand hard/soft brexit and what those two terms might mean? i can't speak on behalf of the country but i certainly have absolutely no idea. not the whole country maybe,
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but jade is possibly speaking for many. this hugely important debate is in danger of drowning injargon. the phrases being used like hard brexit and soft brexit are of course political, and for many are adding to this sense of confusion. but let's try and explain what the differences might be. first, hard brexit. what some people have described as clean brexit. bluntly, hard brexit means the uk is completely out of the eu. out of the single market, which allows the free movement of goods, people, services, and money between all eu members. out of the customs union, in which all eu members buy and sell from each other without paying import taxes. and they all charge the same taxes on goods coming in from the rest of the world. britain would regain control... control of its borders and immigration — no more open door to people from the eu. control of employment rights and trade — a british rule book, not an eu one. control of its own trade deals with countries outside the eu like america,
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china and india. many say hard brexit could cause economic damage notjust to the uk but also to the eu. we are the second largest economy in the eu. since the election, things have certainly become less clear. some people believe we should now be pushing for what is described as a "softer" brexit. many argue this makes jobs and the economy the priority — more important than controlling immigration or regaining sovereignty. with a softer brexit, britain could gain special access to the single market, but we might have to make it easier for eu immigrants to work here. we could just try and stay in that eu customs union. that would allow free movement of goods, but not free movement of people. eu trade laws would still apply,
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which would prevent the uk signing its own trade deals with other countries. brexit is up there as one of the most dramatic european stories i've ever covered. the economics, the politics, and the effect it can have on all our lives. it's a real ripping up of the history books. brussels hosted the first day of negotiations between the eu and brexit britain just last week. in all the years i've lived and worked across europe, no—one here saw this day coming. after 12 months since we had the eu referendum, only now the face—to—face talks started between the uk and the eu. and the eu still has no idea what the uk wants. we must first tackle the uncertainties caused by brexit. we will do all that we can to ensure that we deliver a deal that works
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in the best interests of all citizens. in order to make an informed guess as to where these negotiations might end, you first have to understand why the eu feels as it does about the uk leaving. when the result of the referendum was announced, there was genuine shock in this town and dismay, and a feeling that this could be the beginning of the end for the eu. brussels insiders told me they feared for their european dream. so you think brexit is a disaster for europe. on a scale of one to ten, what kind of disaster? ten. spanish mep esteban pons became a social media hit overnight when he delivered an impassioned speech on the break—up of eu unity. since the first day that the united kingdom
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leave the european union, i will fight to take you back because europe cannot be without united kingdom. we have to invent another name because europe without the united kingdom is not europe. britain was always seen as a very valued member of the european team on a number of levels, and that meant that the other eu countries were willing to do some special deals for the uk to keep it sweet. we didn't have to join the euro currency, for example, and we got a rebate on our contributions to the eu budget. but, that was when we were inside the club. now we're on our way out, and the eu says it has other priorities. i know the uk very well, i've been working with a lot of british ministers in the last 20 years — they are very fine negotiators, but they have the characteristics to negotiate in their own interest. we are going to negotiate for our own interest too. the european commission is negotiating brexit on behalf of all the eu's 27 countries. nobody wants to punish the uk for its choice, the british people for their choice, but one thing is clear —
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the show must go on. the european show will go on. even if there'll be some changes in the props department. i've been told all the flags of eu are in this room. let's have a look. lithuania, latvia, ireland, italy in alphabetical order going that way. so where do i find our united kingdom? there it is. ironically actually, since we're talking about brexit, right next to the european union flag. i guess after the uk leaves the eu, this flag will be taken out of this cupboard. i don't know where it's going to go! the eu didn't know where it was going after the brexit vote. it was already reeling from the migration and euro crises and the rise of eurosceptics like france's marine le pen.
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12 months on and it feels really different here, there's a new eu self—confidence in the air, and why? well, a lid has been put on the migrant crisis and as for those populist euro—sceptics, we've seen them squashed at the polls, notably in france. as for the shock of brexit, farfrom ripping the eu apart, it's actually driven normally bickering european countries into each other‘s arms, forming a united front. for now at least. what about how the eu now views the uk? has that changed over these last 12 months? oh, i think dramatically, and particularly in the last few weeks. there has been utter astonishment since the general election at the disarray in the uk. they believe this chaos in british politics makes a deal harder to reach. one of the best known champions of brexit works right here in brussels. he dismisses all the negative talk. you can't be a self—governing nation
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if you're part of the eu. you can't control your borders or your immigration numbers, so it's the biggest constitutional change in our country since the 17th century. it's about getting back control of our laws. but will we? at the close of day one of eu—uk negotiations, brussels remained unclear about the kind of brexit britain was after. secretary of state, can the eu trust that what you ask for today or tomorrow will be what you ask for in a few days' time, considering the political confusion at the moment in the uk? we will be leaving the single market, we will be seeking to set up a free trade arrangement. similarly, we will be leaving the customs union and that is a major upside for britain and so circumstances have not changed at all. but from the eu perspective, everything has changed. i watched its chief negotiator lose his cool at this first press conference between the two sides. the focus shouldn't be on compromise in brussels, he said.
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the uk chose to leave the eu. not the other way round. so, despite a lingering sense of sadness, the mood music right now in europe is this... brexit, if you're sure you really want it, bring it on. after a general election that nobody quite won, the big question is this for brexit: what, if anything, has changed? how do you think that election result has changed the approach britain will take to the brexit negotiation? i think it's changed pretty fundamentally. theresa may went to the country saying this is my mandate for an extreme form of brexit and she didn't get it. and so we start the negotiations in a position where there's no clear
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mandate and the prime minister's lost authority abroad. overall i don't think it makes a very big difference, if any, because the government set out the direction of travel. we didn't say we would part leave the european union, we said we would leave it and that's what we're going to do dr fox, you can't seriously be saying that nothing has changed since theresa may failed to get a majority in parliament and lead a majority government? in parliament, will it be easier with no overall majority, of course it won't but the government's approach will be the same because we believe that what we set out is in our national interest. i think many people who campaigned to remain in the european union really feel the tide is turning. just a few weeks ago, they seemed down and out but now they're going back into battle, fighting for a different kind of brexit. there are splits between parties, splits within parties.
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the chancellor philip hammond made his intervention in a speech to city and business leaders. when the british people voted last june, they did not vote to become poorer oi’ less secure. they did vote to leave the eu. we will leave the eu but it must be done in a way that works for britain. i am confident we can do a brexit deal that puts jobs and prosperity first — that keeps our markets for goods and services and capital open — that achieves early agreement on transitional arrangements to avoid unnecessary disruption and dangerous cliff edges. what really struck me about philip hammond's speech at the mansion house was the sharp change in tone. he talked aboutjobs and prosperity, in contrast to theresa may before
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the general election. she was much more focused on immigration and on sovereignty. the message from the public before and during the referendum campaign was clear — brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to britain from europe and that is what we will deliver. next door neighbours but different approaches. mrs may wants to cut immigration to the tens of thousands. the chancellor is keener to promote immigration as good for the economy — a view shared by political rivals. what he is doing, it seems to me is, is inching closer to the position we've been advocating for some time. we've said jobs in the economy must be the priority. at his mansion house speech, he said jobs and prosperity must be the priority, so that's almost the same language as we've been using. is there common ground between you, between the liberal democrats and mr hammond's position that he has outlined? i think there is a lot of common ground with him and indeed with a lot of people
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in the labour party who, who can see the potential disasters of going into a really hard, disruptive, extreme form of brexit. and i think ourjob is to reach out to them to find ways of achieving compromise. so, where might those compromises come? well, let's look at honda's factory in swindon. it's the european single market in action. every day two million components are delivered here, many of them from across europe, with no hold ups at the border. if we leave the customs union, it could spell trouble for some. we don't want our components stuck at ports. we don't want to see our cars going to europe being stuck this side of the channel. it's really keeping that free flow of product going. one compromise would be to stay in the customs union where goods can cross borders
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within the eu without import taxes. but that's not government policy at the moment — it wants out. for me, it's about getting what we promised the british people, getting control of their laws, getting control of the borders. you cannot do those things if we remain inside the single market and inside the customs union. if you want the benefits of brexit, being able to get new trade agreements so that we can access the growing markets of the world, that requires the model that we have set out. the customs union will be one of the big battles over the next few months. if we stay inside it — as many big businesses want — that could mean we won't be allowed to sign free trade deals with countries outside the eu. and if that happens, frankly, liam fox would be out of a job. and how long would any deal take? well, the eu divorce is meant to be completed by 2019. and david davis says the transition to a new relationship after that could take a further two years. others are not as optimistic.
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to do this in a sensible way really is, we are talking decade rather than years. the transitional arrangements will probably be in the order of about three years. now it may be that they would have to be extended but i genuinely think that we should be able to get the divorce aspect in the two—year framework and then probably about three years to transition to a new partnership. i think we have to wait and see how the negotiations go. but on the essential point, is it reasonable to have your transitional period if required for the stability of our business and maintaining the market opportunities in europe, that's perfectly reasonable. they may well try and dress it up as a transition period to stop a huge amount of public anger but i do think there is now a significant shift in british politics that says to me that the 17 and a half million people who voted brexit are probably not going to get what they voted for.
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a soft brexit, a slower brexit, some in europe even suggest that britain could stay in the eu. is there any way you could foresee britain staying in the eu? there's about as much chance of us staying in the european union as of me finding the tooth fairy. there was audible spluttering across europe, when in the lead up to the eu referendum, borisjohnson said, "do you know what, we can have our cake and eat it." we can leave the eu but keep the good bits. from an eu point of view it's like me coming into this cake shop and saying, "bonjour. i'd like the blueberry from on top of that cake. all that lovely chocolate flakes from around that one and, oh yes, i'll have the raspberries from right in the middle of that cake. thank you."
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and off i go leaving the cake shop to sort out the mess. we are here in a firm but friendly attitude towards the uk but, no, boris johnson, is totally wrong. he's sure that in the end that brussels will do a deal. this is the city of deals, often at the 11th hour. you british invented the clubs and when you're in the club you have some privileges and not being a member means that you lose some privileges. you cannot have the best of the two worlds. that's just impossible. if we were to do so that would encourage all of our members to leave. however hard the eu tries to market its tough guy approach, make no mistake. it wants a deal with the uk. after all, if the uk economy nosedives, that has a big impact on the rest of europe. but brussels insists it won't do a deal at any price. when the eu thinks about brexit,
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it wants to do everything to protect the european single market. it's the biggest trade area in the whole world. right now made up of half a billion potential customers. the thing is, it's notjust about goods and trade, it's about the free movement of people as well. and so when uk politicians say they want full control over immigration but they want to retain the full benefits of the european single market, brussels says that's pie in the sky. a taste of things to come then — an eu no to compromise when it comes to its rules and principles. but is that realistic? isn't it true that the eu has all the cards? what you're saying is that our european partners would treat us as international pariahs, not want our business, not want our markets, not want our money. the people that would hurt most would be german car manufacturers,
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french wine producers. i'll tell you what the eu really needs more than anything and that's our market. now there is an assumption that all this deal—making with the eu basically comes down to money and that the germans will be pushing hard for a good deal to sell us more and more cars. but to think that would be to fundamentally misunderstand germany and its attitude to the eu. hitler's march across europe and the horror that followed still loom large in european minds. the eu was born out of the ashes of world war ii. eu unity symbolises democracy and security here. for germany it was a chance for a new start. we tend to underestimate in britain the importance and the way in which europe and the eu is part of the german dna, part of the european dna.
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it was a way back for germany into respectability after the horrors of the second world war. so this idea that of course the germans are going to push for a favourable deal for the united kingdom because they want to sell us lots of cars, what do you make of that? but they are not standing up and saying to the german government, "we must have access to the british market." what they're saying is, if you, the german government, have decided that the unity of the eu27 is more important than access to the uk market, so be it, and we will live with that. contemplating the future of eu/uk relations, i keep coming back to the unknowns. what will a deal look like? how long will it take to agree? what happens if it all falls apart? be under no illusions. if we don't get those deals, and if we dont get that agreement, whilst everyone will suffer, britain will be a lot worse off than our former european partners.
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they have very many options for them than we do. the european union — its single market — is the largest single export market for british goods and services — it's where 50% of our exports go. in the uk, many see brexit as an exciting chance for new beginnings, whereas brussels is convinced this is a lose—lose scenario for everybody. the warning here to the uk is stark. there'll be little cake left on the plate after brexit, just a lot of salt and vinegar. we had this weather front attached
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to an old lady of low pressure which has some very strong winds and circulation. later on in the day, it has produced green in western england and wales, a continuous journey south, and all the while, gale force winds. at the same time, into the small hours of sunday, what is left of that weather front will produce the odd bit of rain in the south. as we start the new day, it could be fairly dank across the south—east. not a cold start the day, anywhere, and as we get into the heart of the day, the wind will slowly use across the northern nile and then lizzy claudia stay for the greater part of england and wales. more clued in northern ireland but the chance of pregnancy and there. the bulk of the showers as you see running into central and western parts of scotland, pitching in on a
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noticeable breeze so the cool fuel. —— actual feeling. if you have a plan for the evening, don't think the wind to —— weather gets in the way, same again for scotland when that will be a mixture of the odd sunny shower. some showers across england and wales through monday. that weather through the south—west will not be an issue for wimbledon, nor indeed that front coming in from the north. a of cloud but that will break up and it should be a case of an interrupted play at wimbledon during the course of the day. to get you a sense of how many showers there are, there are few and far between. another day when you will just get on with things. a bit of a different story for monday into tuesday where we will push this atla ntic tuesday where we will push this atlantic frontal system at speed into the heart of the british isles with the high—pressure tumbling
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wednesday for many, settling things down, though there isjust wednesday for many, settling things down, though there is just the sta nce down, though there is just the stance —— chance, having seen rain on tuesday, but that could be some sharp showers in the south—east into wednesday. this is bbc world news today. our top stories: iraqi forces say they've taken control of the main base of the so—called islamic state in mosul. we report from the front line. the remaining is militants have been driven here but at what cost. this hospital complex which was a place of healing now lies in ruins like many other parts of mosul. scuffles in hong kong as its newly appointed chief executive is sworn in. china warns against any challenge to its sovereignty. world leaders pay tribute to helmut kohl, uniter of germany and architect of the european union's expansion.
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