tv Dateline London BBC News July 15, 2017 11:30am-12:01pm BST
and at the same northern irish mps. and at the same time, we have a country that is being driven by its people, driven by the results of the referendum. nobody dares say we're going to look at this again. the people haven't really changed the mind as much as we can see. some slight move but basically people want out, and yet more more we get into the detail of what i would means, the more shocking it looks for the future of this country. so we are in a state of paralysis, and until people change their mind, a government is forced to continue to do what it increasingly knows is a catastrophe. eunice goes, how does it look from the continent as they see britain's domestic problems and at the same time negotiations are continuing? there will be another round in the week ahead. i think a lot of people are quite baffled with the mess of the negotiations, with a lack of preparation from the british government and the officials are preparing the brexit negotiations.
every week we hear this is about the reverberations of yet another thing that was not thought through. like leaving the euratom. every week we are learning about ramifications of big things that should have been thought through before the referendum, but we are now two years after. we are analysing. and at the same timel after. we are analysing. and at the same time i think the european union is now scenting the weakness inside theresa may's government. and if the european union has not changed its habits they are going to exploit that weakness as best as they can. they will try to have the best deal they can from a european point of view. all the charm and niceness thrown at britain, all the sense that there might be some flexibility, i would that there might be some flexibility, iwould be that there might be some flexibility, i would be careful with that, because they also sent weakness and the possibility that britain might in the end not leave the european union. and that weakness, polycom is the fault of
british voters, because they took away theresa mays majority. there was this announcement that we would leave the agency come hell or high water and some backbenchers kicked up water and some backbenchers kicked upa water and some backbenchers kicked up a fuss that they might have some sort of agreement and carry on in parallel. that is a demonstration of the problems theresa may faces. parallel. that is a demonstration of the problems theresa may facesm isa the problems theresa may facesm is a terrible problem, because the british people were lied to about how wonderful it would be to leave europe but also, underneath it all was real anger at a very bad economic situation where half the population have had no increase in their pay for ten years, housing costs have gone through the roof, and so it was a means of expressing and so it was a means of expressing and other anger, which of course the expressed in the general election that came afterwards. some will interpret the general election is people saying, we don't want a hard wrecks it because it is making things even worse. and there is a kind of stasis, but the government written down the middle between
people who think it is a disaster to leave, and the lunatics who created this idea, this fantasy of a first place that somehow leaving europe was going to be the answer to all oui’ was going to be the answer to all our problems. and nothing has been resolved between the two halves of the government, and that is why theresa may stays there, precariously balanced between the two sides will never agree. it's not just the government. when it comes to weakness and rack said, look at the labour party. imagine if the labour party were led by a real pro—european and the labour party we re pro—european and the labour party were strongly pro—european. imagine how different it would be and how much more weakness they would sense in europe. you can most here that lament in tony blair's voice, saying that labour put himself in the wrong position and when getting some of the blame if brexit does not work. having labour will end up there, but it is very precarious, because any labour seats voted for brexit. they
are inching their way forward, including jeremy corbyn. his own instinct might be anti—european, but not that much. if he ever becomes prime minister, it will be on the back of the brexit question. they are trying not to move faster than the people are moving. it's very tricky. a week europe is not good for the world, no doubt, world stability. and with the changes in america as well. the new leadership in america would take advantage of this shaky situation in europe to serve its own interests. as far as the arab point of view, it is the same, they would rather have a unified and strong europe leading the region. and we have a european leader who is at least giving the impression of that. he sent his foreign minister after the gulf, i am talking about president emmanuel macron of france, taking a lot of
diplomatic initiative. now in the gulf, trying to work as an honest broker. is he filling a vacuum of leadership? partly, certainly, there is no doubt about that. his first visit abroad was to mali in africa, which is very significant. this is a clear message to the world that we are going to play a part. and he is right doing that. and he should certainly lead europe as well in this direction. there are huge problems in the middle east, in africa, in asia, that cannot be sorted out. the united states itself cannot sort this out from even the united nations. europe has got the weight, the wealth, and certainly the leadership in this way. if you had emmanuel macron to angela merkel
of germany. eunice goes this question of the duality, we are voiced by the engine of europe being france and germany. tony blair suggested in his comments this weekend that you're also felt diminished by the prospect of britain leaving, then europe would be weaker and less influential in the world. is that how people see it in brussels, in paris, in berlin? they do, but they will never admit to it, and they are also trying to make up for the loss of britain. europe is moving very fast and making up for britain leaving. we need to try to cover the ground that britain used to cover, and i think it is very significant that emmanuel macron was elected at this particularjuncture macron was elected at this particular juncture and has macron was elected at this particularjuncture and has lost no time in trying to show that actually france is here, france is back, france is here, france is back, france is here, france is back, france is going to be a country that makes a power that makes a difference in the world. it was very significant that his first steps where in terms of strengthening
links with germany and the engine of europe, and also in steps towards russia, the right of states, this is about showing that france matters. like britain, france is a country that has its delusions of grandeur and wants to punch above its weight, and wants to punch above its weight, and so far it is early days. macron is doing very well. he is giving a very different image of france, because in the past ten years under the presidency hollande in particular france was extremely weak and irrelevant. in european politics and irrelevant. in european politics and was irrelevant, and emmanuel macron seems determined to change that. i much desired dependent on delivering on domestic reform? because in a sense nicolas sarkozy promised it, francois hollande promised it, francois hollande promised it, francois hollande promised it, and neither could pull it off. that is the question. because so far he is presenting all the reforms that europe has been
demanding, in terms of labour market reforms, liberalisation, and so on. he has a parliamentary majority to approve legislation, but what is going to happen in the streets? the streets in france... the irony for britain leaving now is that at the time of this ridiculous campaign for brexit began, they said that europe is falling apart, all europe is not the future, france is dilapidated. now suddenly we see a vision where for one thing the european union is growing faster than we are, we are at the back of the line for g7 growth. but france and germany look very united, very strong. europe seems to have new strength and energy and enthusiasm, and we have been left behind. we are the ones who are going to feel like the outsiders, unimportant. we will be the flyover zone for anybody else. nobody will come and talk to us, they will be going to germany and paris. i think what eunice goes says
about the streets, it seems far away, but it is so important, and it is what links to people who are so analyte which is emmanuel macron and donald trump. they were both elected by amazing disaffection and anger at the grassroots level. if they don't succeed, where is that anger going to go? this is something that worries a lot of people, because this is notjust france and the us, it is other countries as well. this pent—up angeragainst it is other countries as well. this pent—up anger against the establishment, against anybody who is on top, is willie dangerous. but does that affect the code of leaders we get? if there is this kind of reaction and they have been elected because of this surge of disaffection, is there a danger that compromises the issue and makes leaders reluctant to leave because they are terrified of getting a similar response, similar anger and similar response, similar anger and similar objection? certainly, no
doubt about that, but in france's case, certainly the establishment is crumbling, it has crumbled. it is gone. this is new blood. we don't know yet. but i think emmanuel macron has a better chance, lots of chances to lead france, and within europe as well. and with angela merkel who seems to be at the moment... she is up for election in september and all the surveys suggest you will be re—elected. september and all the surveys suggest you will be re-elected. yes, but in britain's case, i think we will wake up one day in maybe two years when brexit is totally signed off, and we will become poorer. and people will ask, did we leave europe to become poorer? which is, fundamentally... but might they also say, and you were hinting at the old ways you really do sometimes behave, might they also say, we are poorer
but we are freer? freer to do what, exactly? our own thing. possibly, there is that illusion. i do think it is an illusion, because this idea of national sovereignty, this concept of sovereignty that is being used does not make any sense in the real world. what does it mean to be free and be in control of your own destiny when questions like climate change, even diseases, terrorism, economic growth, migration, questions of technological advancement... they are so dependent on transnational links full stop what a slogan it was, "take back control". everybody, wherever they are, any stratum of society around the world, has a sense that everything is out of control. power is always somewhere else, it is not where i can control it. this is called a democracy, yet i personally
cannot control anything. people in some senses have lost the notion that actually democracy is a collective thing, and there is much more me, me, me. ilosing collective thing, and there is much more me, me, me. i losing my power, and a big win to get back to a certain amount of basic political education as to what it means to govern collectively. do you think there is any possibility that brexit won't have an? -- brexit won't happen? what tony blair was talking about, outer circles that we might stay within... it is most too late for that. if we have a transition that goes on and on, almost indefinitely, where we stay as we are while we continue negotiating. after all, the build—up was published this week, 1000 clauses to be debated of technical important things that matter desperately to people's jobs in particular
industries, i think it is a possibility. but we spent to much time talking to people like us. i get out there a lot and talk to places that voted to accept, and i see no change —— places that voted brexit. it will say, i don't want to know, i don't want to know the details, don't tell me that, ijust wa nt details, don't tell me that, ijust want out. i figured us in the same realm of likelihood is impeachment for donald trump. it is possible, but it really doesn't feel likely at this point. after his european tour, donald trump is back in washington this weekend. for him, the big legislative doubt is over the "beautiful" new healthcare bill with which he hopes to replace the affordable care act, the hated — to mr trump's base — signature reform of his predecessor ba rack 0bama. haider al—abadi, but does not fight
over the health care bill tell us about donald trump's approach to leadership? —— stryker mcguire, what does that tell us? he was always good to be a different kind of leader. he was elected, but he behaves like an oligarch. he is very removed from the levers and the gears and the mechanisms of government. i don't think he could ca re less government. i don't think he could care less about that. with him, so much as personal. this is so much more about a bummer, the person, —— barack 0bama, the person, than about people might health care. between 18-20,000,000 people might health care. between 18—20,000,000 people. but he is very removed from that. he just wants things to happen because he wants them to happen, therefore this should happen. he gets angry when they don't happen, and this is causing serious problems for the
people who are actually writing the bill. i don't think he wrote the bill. i don't think he wrote the bill. shocking revelation! he is just not that kind of guy. what is going to happen when that many millions of people have lost their health care in excess elections? this is what's really in trusting. we sort of climate change and now we see it with health care. local government in the united states, the city ‘s mother state governments, governors had a meeting recently, this week in boston, and governors are overwhelmingly opposed, because they are right there, they don't in they are right there, they don't in the dirt with the health care bill and all of its repercussions. and so what is going to happen is there is huge opposition within the republican party at that level, but evenin republican party at that level, but even in the senate. in the senate you have moderates who are against it cos they don't want all these
people to lose their health care, and then you have extremists who are against it because theyjust don't think there should be health insurance. it depends where you sit which group you regard as moderates in which you regard as extremists. they could say that ideological eb have a position. the point is you could have a coalition of different interests. and i think the hardliners are more likely to wind down the moderates, the moderates are fewer in number. but even if something were to come out of the senate, they now extended the legislative terms of that that could possibly happen, even if that were to happen, that is farfrom possibly happen, even if that were to happen, that is far from the end of the story. the point you made earlier, mustapha karkouti, about leadership, that the establishment has crumbled in france, the problem donald trump has a few wants to lead is that the establishment in washington still seems very much alive. very much, certainly. that is
his trouble there, he cannot make a lot of changes. he is against a huge wall. the establishment is still strong and sound. both parties. the idea is the establishment finds it also strange and difficult to deal with the businessman who is still running the white house as a businessman. as we all know, the man has no political experience whatsoever. parachuted into the white house to run the biggest, the most important, the most influential country in the world. and the largest economy. one could must feel sympathy for him! i think he is extremely powerful in the sense that so far the checks of the american constitution on his power have not really worked. i think it is
extremely worrying when we see the mixing of his private business interests, his family, the way they are all meddled in all areas of american public policy, in particular diplomacy. this is extremely worrying and is not supposed to happen in a democracy, and yet the two houses of the american congress are not saying a thing. there are no enquiries, there are no questions. there are enquiries, but there is a kind of normalcy. but he hasn't done anything. his first 100 days have been most vacant and vacuous in which nothing has happened. the checks and balances are working to some extent. he thinks he canjust order what everyone's and the result... one thing we have enquiries about is the russia connection, if there is one, and there are a lot of enquiries into that. we have it catching his family because his son had this meeting, and one of the people at the meeting was apparently a former soviet spy.
some are involved in soviet intelligence. and yet it doesn't seem to be hurting his popularity. more than popularity, it seems to be able to carry on. his sons who are running the business of making statements about american diplomacy. i don't think this is normal. his daughter, still in charge of a business, shows up at a 620 meeting i don't think this is normal. it should not be allowed. he is the most unpopular president for this period of time in memory. but the frustration that you are depressing is that it doesn't seem to matter. his so—called base seems to be about 40 his so—called base seems to be about a0 present, sometimes it did so little lower, but the problem is until the republican legislators believe that their own seats are threatened by trump, they are too afraid to move. so untilthe mid—term elections, that would be
the earliest chance? or in the run—up to them. because people begin running early. so they have to make assumptions, they have to make plans based on how they think things are going. and if they are going really badly... you have a third of senators, and you have... every congressman. mustapha karkouti, i started the programme talking about haider al—abadi waving the iraqi flag in mills. in one sense you would think his task of leadership looks easy. he hasjust would think his task of leadership looks easy. he has just had a would think his task of leadership looks easy. he hasjust had a big victory, that would give him a boost. but is it as simple as that, straightforward? boost. but is it as simple as that, straightforward ? is anything straightforward ? is anything straightforward in iraqi politics quiz night haider al—abadi no doubt... the issue is much more complicated than he is trying to portray. certainly daesh...
complicated than he is trying to portray. certainly daesh. .. the group that calls itself islamic state. it has been defeated in iraq no doubt, but this is necessary to do that. but is it sufficient? isn't the only thing you need to do in iraq? not to mention syria, of course. iraq itself has got on that front a step forward. but the biggest problem now starts in iraq which is how to rebuild, rehabilitate positively. not socially, economically, but politically. you have a new militia which took part in the liberation of muscle. now they have to have something to do. exactly, and they are amending a part. this militia, known as a popular mobilisation
force, it is inspired by the iranians revolutionary guard. and they are demanding political parts to play in deciding the future of iraq. you think there is something quite important about the idea of the caliphate having fallen with mosul? the romance of the droopy berlin from all over the place, that there was a place and this was the perfect islamic state that would eventually grow and take over the world. do you think the force of that has gone in terms of recruitment? yes, certainly. ithink the idea of caliphate itself has been used up either deliberately or totally unnecessarily. it had no future right from day one. don't
forget, the vast majority of recruits and non—arabs. they come from abroad. they are mostly european, which is strange. you have no future with such force within an arab environment. but the further you are from a borough market it may seem. i agree. in you are from a borough market it may seem. iagree. in a you are from a borough market it may seem. i agree. in a sense, for a time it was a more effective leadership for rallying banner or democratic leadership. it was, that is why the coalition that helped iraq defeats daesh, they have been very critical of the' —— criticised by an international, because for propaganda purposes it is important to show to anyone who may be attracted by the romance of the
caliphate, that they can have a pretty dramatic, pretty horrific and at the hands of the iraqi army. hopefully in that sense the kind of propaganda works. but i think we haven't seen the end of daesh in the region. no. there are still quite a lot of work to do even in iraq will stop. reasons to be full. but i think even mosul we will find out that some pretty horrendous things happened there and it will make all of us feel very queasy. but yes, there is no doubt that on balance this feels like old. thank you all very much for being with us. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. a bit of a mixed bag this weekend.
some rain in the forecast. most of that today. you will notice that it is a warm and muggy weekend. we have this wedge of warm air coming in from the atlantic. it is coming in with a bit of a breeze. we've also got these weather fronts and they are bringin some rain. that's moving from west to east. drying up into the afternoon across northern england, east anglia. it will be wettest for longest across central and western
parts of scotland. quite a dull and damp sort of day care were should see things drying up into the afternoon. we will see another spell of rain working south across the northern isles. quite warm here — 21 degrees. pretty grey to the western side of the pennines. maybe light rain and drizzle. similar on the western side of wales. maybe low cloud as well. a lot of dry weather the further south. dry but rather cloudy. a bit breezy. and on the warm side. 23—2a degrees in places and quite a muggy sort of feel to things as well. it will stay muggy not just today but into tomorrow as well. this evening wet across central and western parts of scotland. that rain is on the move and slipping southwards. a lot of low cloud ahead of that. and it will be at a muggy night for the further south you are.
16—17 degrees per something fresher coming in from the north. 10—12 here. slightly fresher air will eventually wind out. it is coming in behind this weather front which are slowly slipping southwards and as it moves southwards in the rain becomes increasingly light and patchy. it does start of a bit dull and damp. the rain becomes very light and patchy and south of that is pretty warm and humid. behind, much brighter skies coming in. in the north of scotland will be some outbreaks of rain but not so through the central lowlands. some good spells of sunshine here. just looking ahead into the early part of next week. the north—south split continues on monday. into tuesday maybe a little bit of rain coming in for the west. all good afternoon. the former prime minister tony blair has suggested some eu leaders might
be prepared to change the rules of the single market — to keep britain inside the european union. he says the views of voters could have shifted, and the british might be willing to stay inside the eu if changes were made — such as stricter controls on migration. 0ur political correspondent, emma vardy, has this report. tony blair once argued passionately that britain should remain in the