tv Dateline London BBC News July 15, 2017 4:30pm-5:01pm BST
parliamentary majority, and president trump is distracted by the investigation into links between his campaign — and his family — and the russians. it can't he often that they envy iraq's prime minister, but it was haider al—abadi who looked like a leader as he held the flag of iraq aloft on the streets of mosul, celebrating the rout of islamic state. to discuss leadership this week, i'm joined by four leading lights ofjournalism. american journalist stryker mcguire, who's london editor for bloomberg markets, polly toynbee, columnist with the guardian newspaper, the portuguese writer eunice goes and mustapha karkouti, a broadcaster based in the gulf. we're ina we're in a of paralysis, and the goblet is forced to do what is increasingly a catastrophe. how does it look from europe? will be another round of negotiations in the weeks ahead? a lot of people are baffled
by the lack of preparation, the negotiations. every week we are listening and now this is about the reverberations of yet another thing that was not thought about like leaving euratom. every week we learn about ramifications of things that should've been thought through before the referendum but now two years after we're analysing. at the same time the european union senses the weakness in theresa may's government. and the european union agreed to try to exploit that weakness as best they can, have the best deal they can from a european point of view. all the charm and myspace thrown at britain, the sense that there might be some flexibility, i would that there might be some flexibility, iwould be that there might be some flexibility, i would be careful with that. mail so sent the real
possibility that britain might in the end not leave the european union. and that weakness is the fault of voters who took away the majority of theresa may. and then a few backbencher started kicking up a fuss and it has blurred a bit, we might have some association agreement, we might carry on in parallel. it's a demonstration of the problems theresa may faces. parallel. it's a demonstration of the problems theresa may facesm isa the problems theresa may facesm is a terrible problem. the british people were lied to about how wonderful it be to leave europe. but underneath it all there was real anger at a very bad economic situation where half the population have had no increase in their paper ten years. housing costs have gone through the roof. it was a means of expressing and other anger, which they expressed in the general election that came afterwards. some will interpret the general election
as, we don't want a hard brexit because it makes things worse. and there is a kind of stasis. the government is written down the middle between people who think it is passionately in disaster to leave, and the lunatics who created this fantasy in the first place that somehow leaving europe was good to be the answer to all of our problems. nothing has been resolved between the two halves of the government, and that is why theresa may stays there, precariously balanced between the two sides, you will never agree. it's notjust balanced between the two sides, you will never agree. it's not just the government. when it comes to weakness or brexit, look at the labour party. imagine if the labour party were led by a real pro european and the labour party were strongly pro—european, imagine how different it would be and how much more weakness they would sense in europe. you could hear that lament in tony blair's voice saying that labour have put themselves in his view in the wrong position and a
doubling of getting some of the blame of brexit does not work. labour will end up there, but it is very precarious because so many labour seats voted for brexit. they are inching forwards, including jeremy corbyn. his own instincts might be anti—european. he wants to be prime minister, and if he does it will be on the back of the brexit question. they are trying not to move faster than the people. it is very tricky. a week europe is not good for the world, world stability. and of course changes in america as well. new leadership in america take advantage of this tricky situation to serve its own interest and stop as faras to serve its own interest and stop as far as the arab point of view, it is the same, they would rather have a strong europe leading the region. and we have a european leader in
giving this impression that, he sent foreign minister to the gulf this weekend, president macron france. taking a lot of diplomatic initiatives. now in the gulf trying to act as an honest broker. is he filling a vacuum of leadership? partly, roberto 's first visit abroad was to mali in africa which is very significant. this is clear message that we will play a part, and he is right doing that. he should certainly lead europe in this direction. there are huge problems in the middle east, in asia. it cannot be sorted out. the united states itself cannot sort this out, even the united nations. europe has
got the weights, the wealth and the leadership in this way if you had emmanuel macron to angela merkel. this question ofjealousy, we have talked about the engine of european france and germany. tony blair suggested in his comments this weekend that europe also felt diminished, that europe would be wea ker diminished, that europe would be weaker and less influential in the world. is that how people see it in europe? they do, but they will never admit to it. they will also try to make upfor admit to it. they will also try to make up for the loss of britain. europe is moving very fast and making upfor europe is moving very fast and making up for it. to try to cover the ground britain used to cover. it is significant that emmanuel macron was elected office juncture and has lost no time trying to show that france is here, france is going to
bea france is here, france is going to be a country that makes a power that makes a difference in the world. it was significant his first steps where in terms of strengthening links with germany, strengthening the engine of europe. but also steps towards russia, united states, this is showing that france matters. like britain, france has its illusions of grandeurand britain, france has its illusions of grandeur and wants to punch above its weight, and so far these are early days, emmanuel macron is doing very well. he is giving a different image of france. for the past ten yea rs image of france. for the past ten years and president hollande, france was extremely weak and irrelevant. macron seems determined to change that. how much does that depend on in delivering on domestic reform? nicolas sarkozy promised it,
francois hollande promised it and neither could pull it off. that is the big question. so far he is presenting all the reforms that europe has been demanding in terms of labour murky reforms, liberalisation and so on. he has a parliamentary majority to approve legislation, but what will happen in the streets? it is the streets in france that decide. the irony for britain leaving no is that at the time by mr dickens campaign for brexit began they said, europe is falling apart, old europe is not the future, france's dilapidated. now suddenly we see a vision where the european union is growing much faster than we are. we are at the back of the line for g7 growth. france and germany look very united and strong. europe seems to have new strength and energy and enthusiasm and we have been left behind. we are the ones who are great if you like
outsiders, we will be the flyover zone as people go to talk to germany in paris. what eunice goes says about the streets, it seems far—away, but it is important and it is what links people who are so one alike, that is macron and trump. we we re alike, that is macron and trump. we were both elected by amazing disaffection and anger at the grassroots level. if they don't succeed, where will that anger go? this worries a lot of people because it is notjust france in the us, it is all countries as well. this pent—up angeragainst is all countries as well. this pent—up anger against the establishment, anybody who is on top, is relieved dangerous. does that affect the leaders we get? there is this reaction, they have been elected because of the surge of disaffection, is there a danger that
compromises the leadership because leaders are terrified of getting a similar response of anger and similar response of anger and similar rejection? certainly, no doubt about that. in france's case the establishment is crumbling, has crumbled, no doubt. this is new blood. we don't know yet, but i think macron has chances to lead france and europe as well. and with angela merkel who seems at the moment... she is up for election in september and the signs are she will be re—elected. september and the signs are she will be re-elected. in britain's case, we wait up one day, maybe two years, when brexit is totally signed off, we will become poorer, and it'll will ask, did we leave europe to become poorer? but might they also
say, and you are hinting at the old ways in which leaders sometimes behave, might they also say, we are poon behave, might they also say, we are poor, but we are freer? freer to do what? our own thing. possibly, there is that illusion. you think it is an illusion? i do, because this idea of national sovereignty, the concept of sovereignty that is used by brexit ears doesn't make any sense. what does it mean to be free and in control of your destiny when questions like climate change, diseases, terrorism, economic growth, questions of technological advancements and so on. they are so dependent on transnational links. what a slogan it was, "take back control. " everybody, what a slogan it was, "take back control." everybody, wherever they are, any stratum of society, around
the world, has a sensitive the thing is out of control, power is always somewhere else, it is not where i can control it. this is called a democracy, yet i cannot personally control anything. in some sense as people have lost the notion that democracy is a collective thing, and there is much more me, and i'm losing my power. and i think we need to get back to a certain amount of basic political education as to what it means to govern collectively. do you think there is any possibility brexit will not happen? it is possible, . brexit will not happen? it is possible,. but the timer so short. the timescale that tony blair was talking about, there might be outer circles we could have stayed within. it is too late for that. if we have a transition that goes on and on, almost indefinitely, where we say as we are well the continue negotiating. after all, the build—up
was published this week, 1000 clauses to be debated, technical things that matter desperately to jobs in particular industries. i think it is a possibility, but we spend too much time talking to people like us. i get out there a lot and talk to places that voted brexit, and i see no change. people still say, i don't care, i don't wa nt still say, i don't care, i don't want you the details, don't tell me that, just want out. it is about the same realm of likelihood is impeachment for trump. it is possible, it is, but it really doesn't feel like we have this point. i could reference to drop them, because just this week in congress, they began impeachment proceedings, and likely to get very far to stop. after his european tour, donald trump is back in washington this weekend. for him, the big legislative doubt is over the "beautiful" new healthcare bill with which he hopes to replace the affordable care act, the hated —
to mr trump's base — signature reform of his predecessor ba rack obama. stryker, what does not fight over the health care bill tell us about donald trump's approach to leadership? he was always good to be a different kind of leader. he was elected, but he behaves like an oligarch. he is very removed from the levers and the gears and the mechanisms of government. i don't think he could care less about that. with him, so much as personal. this is so much more about obama, the person, than about people might health care. between 18—20,000,000 people. but he is very removed from that. he just wants things to happen because he wants them to happen, therefore this should happen.
he gets angry when they don't happen, and this is causing serious problems for the people who are actually writing the bill. i don't think he wrote the bill. shocking revelation! he is just not that kind of guy. what is going to happen when that many millions of people have lost their health care in excess elections? this is what's really interesting. we sort of climate change and now we see it with health care. local government in the united states, the city ‘s mother state governments, governors had a meeting recently, this week in boston, and governors are overwhelmingly opposed, because they are right there, they don't in the dirt with the health care bill and all of its repercussions. and so what is going to happen is there is huge opposition within the republican party at that
level, but even in the senate. in the senate you have moderates who are against it cos they don't want all these people to lose their health care, and then you have extremists who are against it because theyjust don't think there should be health insurance. it depends where you sit which group you regard as moderates and which you regard as extremists. they could say that ideological have a position. the point is you could have a coalition of different interests. and i think the hardliners are more likely to bend than the moderates, the moderates are fewer in number. but even if something were to come out of the senate, they now extended the legislative terms of that that could possibly happen, even if that were to happen, that is far from the end of the story. the point you made earlier, mustapha karkouti, about leadership, that the establishment has crumbled in france, the problem donald trump has a few wants to lead is that the establishment in washington still seems very much alive.
very much, certainly. that is his trouble there, he cannot make a lot of changes. he is against a huge wall. the establishment is still strong and sound. both parties. the idea is the establishment finds it also strange and difficult to deal with the businessman who is still running the white house as a businessman. as we all know, the man has no political experience whatsoever. parachuted into the white house to run the biggest, the most important, the most influential country in the world. and the largest economy. one could must feel sympathy for him! i think he is extremely powerful in the sense that so far the checks
of the american constitution on his power have not really worked. i think it is extremely worrying when we see the mixing of his private business interests, his family, the way they are all meddled in all areas of american public policy, in particular diplomacy. this is extremely worrying and is not supposed to happen in a democracy, and yet the two houses of the american congress are not saying a thing. there are no enquiries, there are no questions. there are enquiries, but there is a kind of normalcy. but he hasn't done anything. his first 100 days have been most vacant and vacuous in which nothing has happened. the checks and balances are working to some extent. he thinks he canjust order whatever he wants and the result... one thing we have enquiries about is the russia connection, if there is one, and there are a lot of enquiries into that.
we have it catching his family because his son had this meeting, and one of the people at the meeting was apparently a former soviet spy. some are involved in soviet intelligence. and yet it doesn't seem to be hurting his popularity. more than popularity, it seems to be able to carry on. his sons who are running the business of making statements about american diplomacy. i don't think this is normal. his daughter, still in charge of a business, shows up at a 620 meeting i don't think this is normal. it should not be allowed. he is the most unpopular president for this period of time in memory. but the frustration that you are depressing is that it doesn't seem to matter. his so—called base seems to be about a0 present, sometimes it did so little lower, but the problem is until the republican legislators believe that their own seats are threatened by trump, they are too afraid to move. so until the mid—term elections,
that would be the earliest chance? or in the run—up to them. because people begin running early. so they have to make assumptions, they have to make plans based on how they think things are going. and if they are going really badly... you have a third of senators, and you have... every congressman. mustapha karkouti, i started the programme talking about haider al—abadi waving the iraqi flag in mills. in one sense you would think his task of leadership looks easy. he hasjust had a big victory, that would give him a boost. but is it as simple as that, straightforward ? is anything straightforward in iraqi politics quiz night haider al—abadi no doubt... the issue is much more complicated than he is trying to portray.
certainly daesh... the group that calls itself islamic state. it has been defeated in iraq no doubt, but this is necessary to do that. but is it sufficient? isn't the only thing you need to do in iraq? not to mention syria, of course. iraq itself has got on that front a step forward. but the biggest problem now starts in iraq which is how to rebuild, rehabilitate positively. not socially, economically, but politically. you have a new militia which took part in the liberation of muscle. now they have to have
something to do. exactly, and they are amending a part. this militia, known as a popular mobilisation force, it is inspired by the iranians revolutionary guard. and they are demanding political parts to play in deciding the future of iraq. do you think there is something quite important about the idea of the caliphate having fallen with mosul? the romance of the droopy berlin from all over the place, that there was a place and this was the perfect islamic state that would eventually grow and take over the world. do you think the force of that has gone in terms of recruitment? yes, certainly. i think the idea of caliphate itself
has been used up either deliberately or totally unnecessarily. it had no future right from day one. don't forget, the vast majority of recruits and non—arabs. they come from abroad. they are mostly european, which is strange. you have no future with such force within an arab environment. but the further you are from a borough market it may seem. —— the more romantic. iagree. in a sense, for a time it was a more effective leadership for rallying banner or democratic leadership. it was, that is why the coalition that helped iraq defeats daesh, they have been very critical of the' —— criticised by an international, because for propaganda purposes it is important to show to anyone who may be attracted
by the romance of the caliphate, that they can have a pretty dramatic, pretty horrific and at the hands of the iraqi army. hopefully in that sense the kind of propaganda works. but i think we haven't seen the end of daesh in the region. no. there are still quite a lot of work to do even in iraq will stop. reasons to be hopefull. but i think even mosul we will find out that some pretty horrendous things happened there and it will make all of us feel very queasy. but yes, there is no doubt that on balance this feels like old. —— feels like hope.
thank you all very much for being with us. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. there have been hidden gems today. 24 there have been hidden gems today. 2a in hereford, so the potential was there today. warm and humid with some sunshine. but the vast majority have not, keeping lots of close. some rain, most obscene sum at some stage. still wet across north—west england up to north scotland. the
rain is sinking southwards through this evening and into tonight. scotla nd this evening and into tonight. scotland will see the rain returning across eastern parts. increasingly light from northern ireland to stop still a few breaks in the cloud. generally where it has dried up across england and wales it is a little brighter. later this evening parts of northern england will see the return of some spray. stays wet in north—west england. into wales the return of outbreaks in the north and west. low cloud and hill fog across wales and england. warm in the south. clear skies in scotland and northern ireland, temperatures made it, but sunnier and fresher here tomorrow. windy and northern scotland. brightening up in northern
england. this area of cloud works so making patchy light rain or two showers. ahead of it, warm and humid. at wimbledon, lots of cloud around, some brighter breaks. late afternoon into evening there is the chance of a shower. with the british grand prix, rain for qualifying. the risk of a few spots of light rain and drizzle. few late heavy showers tomorrow, a spell of rain for northern scotland to end sunday. clearing early on monday, monday as high pressure building, and for many of us on tuesday, warm sunny spells,
getting more humid again. i choose to write into wednesday we'll see thundery showers. this is bbc news. the headlines at 5pm. the authorities in turkey have sacked a further 7000 members tony blair says some eu leaders are ready to compromise on freedom of movement to help britain stay in the single market. europe is looking at its own reform programme. they will have an inner circle of the eu and an outer circle. laws on buying acid are to be reviewed by the government following a spate of attacks in london on thursday night. a 15—year—old girl has died after taking a drug — formerly known as a "legal high" — in newton abbot in devon. also in the next hour — the anniversary of the failed coup in turkey. since the attempt to topple president erdogan, more than than 150,000 state employees have been dismissed, while some