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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  July 16, 2017 2:30am-3:01am BST

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the largely silent crowd walked to china's representative office in the territory to show their support for mr liu, who died on thursday. now on bbc news, it's time for dateline london. hello there. they are leaders, but ata hello there. they are leaders, but at a leading? welcome to dateline. donald trump was treated like royalty as the french celebrated their revolution. theresa may was trumpeting a different sort of revolution in england. she is a diminished figure after losing her parliamentary majority. president trump is distracted by the investigation into links between his campaign and his family, and the russians. it can't be often that they envy that prime minister of iraq, but haider al—abadi looked
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like a leader this week on the streets of mosul, celebrating the defeat of islamic state. welcome to oui’ defeat of islamic state. welcome to our guests. good to have you back. tony blair was saying today that we have had a lot of followership lately, we need some leadership. is he right? i think it's true, we are leaderless at the moment. we have an incapacitated, paralysed prime minister who has lost her majority and has to depend on eccentric, northern irish mps. at the same time, we have a country that is being driven by its people. it is being driven by its people. it is being driven by the results of the referendum. nobody dare say, we are
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going to look at this again. people have not really changed their mind as much as we can see. some slight movement, but people want out. more and more, we get into the detail of what out means, and that looks more shocking for the future of this country. we are in a state of paralysis. until the people change their mind, a government is forced to continue to do what it knows is a catastrophe. how does it look from the continent of europe as they see britain's domestic problems? negotiations are continuing, there will be another round in brussels in the week ahead? i think people are baffled with the negotiations, with the lack of preparation from the british government. every week, we are listening to analysis about the reverberations of something else that was not fought through, such
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as... the nuclear agency? we are learning about more big things that should have been fought through before the referendum, but we are i'iow before the referendum, but we are now analysing... at the same time, i think that the european union is sensing a weakness within theresa may's cabinet. they are going to exploit that weakness as best as they can and they are going to try and have the best deal that they can have from a european point of view. all the sense that there might be some flexibility, i would be careful with that, because they also centres a weakness in the real possibility that britain might not leave the eu. and it is essentially the british voter's fault, because they took away theresa may's majority. a few
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backbenchers have kicked up a farce and blurred the lines of it. we might carry on in parallel. is this a demonstration of the problems theresa may faces? the british people were lied to about how wonderful it would be to leave europe. underneath it all, there was real anger and a bad economic situation, half the population have had no pay increases in ten years, housing costs are through the roof. it was a means of expressing and other form of anger. it was a means of expressing and otherform of anger. some people will interpret the general election is people saying, we don't want a ha rd is people saying, we don't want a hard brexit, it is making things even worse. there is a kind of stasis within the government. between people who passionately think it is a disaster to leave and the lunatics who created this idea, this fantasy that somehow leaving
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europe was going to be the answer to all of our problems. nothing has been resolved between the two halves of the government. that is why theresa may stays precariously balanced between the two sides who will never agree. it is notjust balanced between the two sides who will never agree. it is not just the government. look at the labour party. imagine if the labour party we re party. imagine if the labour party were led by a real, pro—eu campaigner, and the labour party we re campaigner, and the labour party were pro—eu. imagine how much difference it would be and how much more weakness they would sense in europe. you can almost hear that lament in tony blair's voice. he has put himself in the wrong position, that he would get some of the blame ifa that he would get some of the blame if a brexit doesn't work.|j that he would get some of the blame if a brexit doesn't work. i think labour will end up there, but it is very carriers, because so many labour seats voted for brexit. they are inching their way forward is, including jeremy corbyn. his instincts may be different, but if
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he ever becomes the prime minister, it will be on the back of the brexit question. they are trying not to move faster than the people are moving. it is not good for the world, world stability. the changes in america as well, the new leadership, taking advantage of this shaky situation. serving its own interests. they would rather have a unified, strong europe, leading the region into... the european leader is giving the impression of that, he has sent emmanuel macron to the gulf. taking a lot of initiative, trying to act as an honest broker they are. is he filling the vacuum
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of leadership? partly, no doubt about that. there is a situation in africa that is very significant as faras emmanuel africa that is very significant as far as emmanuel macron is concerned. he is trying to negotiate in the area. he should lead europe in this direction. there are huge problems in the middle east, in africa and asia. they cannot be sorted out. the united states cannot sort this out. even in the united nations, europe has the weight, the wealth and certainly the leadership to persuade... if you add emmanuel macron to the question of germany... we have always talked about the engine of europe being france and germany. tony blair was suggesting
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this weekend that europe as well felt diminished by the prospect, that europe would be weaker and less influential in the world. is that how people see it in brussels, paris, berlin? they do, but they will never admit to it. they are also trying to make up for the loss of britain. britain is moving very fast, making up for the fact that they are leaving. we need to try to cover the ground that britain by others. i think it is very significant that emmanuel macron was elected at this juncture. he significant that emmanuel macron was elected at thisjuncture. he has wasted no time in train to show that france is here, it is back and it is going to be a country that tries to make a difference in the world. it is significant that his first steps we re is significant that his first steps were strengthening connections with germany, strengthening the engines of europe. also making steps towards
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russia, the united states, this is about showing that france matters. it isa about showing that france matters. it is a country that has delusions of grandeur, wants to punch above its weight. so far, emmanuel macron is doing very well. it is a very different image of france. for the past ten years, france was under a very different presidency. it was very different presidency. it was very weak and irrelevant. in european politics, it was totally irrelevant. emmanuel macron seems determined to change that. how much does it depend on him delivering domestic reform? does it depend on him delivering domestic reform ? nicolas does it depend on him delivering domestic reform? nicolas sarkozy promised it, so did other presidents, and nobody was able to pull it off. that is the question. so far, he is presenting all the reforms that europe has been demanding in terms of labour market reforms, liberalisation and so on. he has the parliamentary majority to
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approve that legislation. what is going to happen in the streets? it is the streets in france... the irony of britain leaving now is that when the campaign for brexit began, they said, europe is falling apart. it is crumbling. old europe is not the future. france's dilapidated. now we see a vision where, for one thing, the eu is growing much faster than we are. we are at the back of the line for g7 growth. france and germany look very united and strong. europe has new strength, energy and enthusiasm, we have been left behind. we are the ones who are going to feel like outsiders. a flyover zone will be very important as well. it will be going to germany and paris. what you say about the streets, it seems far away but it is so streets, it seems far away but it is so important. it is what links to people who are so alike, emmanuel
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macron and donald trump. they were both elected by amazing disaffection and angerat the both elected by amazing disaffection and anger at the grassroots level. if they don't succeed, where is that anger going to if they don't succeed, where is that angergoing to go? if they don't succeed, where is that anger going to go? this is something that really worries a lot of people. this is notjust friends that really worries a lot of people. this is not just friends and the that really worries a lot of people. this is notjust friends and the us, it is other countries as well. this pent—up angeragainst it is other countries as well. this pent—up anger against the establishment, against anybody who is on top, is really dangerous. does that affect the leaders we get? if there is this reaction and they've been elected because of the third of disaffection, is there a danger that compromises leadership because they are terrified of getting a similar response, similar anger and a are terrified of getting a similar response, similarangerand a —— are terrified of getting a similar response, similar anger and a —— and rejection? certainly the establishment has crumbled, it is
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gone. this is a new blood, we don't know yet. emmanuel macron has a better chance, a lot of chances, to lead for us and within europe as well. up for election in september, so... in the case of britain, i think we will wake up one day, maybe give it three years, when brexit is totally signed off, we will become poorer. people will ask, totally signed off, we will become poorer. people willask, did totally signed off, we will become poorer. people will ask, did we leave europe to become poorer? that is fundamentally... might they also say, looking at the old ways in which european leaders used to behave, they might say, we are poorer, but we are free. freer to do
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what, exactly? ithink poorer, but we are free. freer to do what, exactly? i think it is an illusion. this idea of national sovereignty and the concept that is being used by the brexit peers, it isa being used by the brexit peers, it is a nuisance in the real world. what does it mean to be free and in control of your own destiny, when questions like climate change and even diseases, terrorism, economic growth, questions of technological advancement and so on, they are so dependent on... you couldn't think ofa dependent on... you couldn't think of a better slogan, takeback control. everybody, wherever they are, every strata of society and probably around the world, has a sense where everything is out of control, power is always somewhere else. it is not, i can control it. this is not poor they democracy, i personally cannot control anything. people have lost the notion that democracy is a collect of thing. it
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is all about me. i'm losing my power. i think we need to get back toa power. i think we need to get back to a certain amount of basic political education as to what it means to govern collectively. do you think there is any possibility that a brexit won't happen?” think there is any possibility that a brexit won't happen? i think it's possible, but the time is so short. the changes that might happen within europe that tony blair was talking about, outer circles that we could have stayed within, it is almost too late. if we have a transition that goes on and on, almost indefinitely, where we stay as we are while we continue negotiating... the bill that was published this week, a thousand clauses to be debated, really technical and important thing that desperately matter to people's jobs and industries. i think it is a possibility. we spend too much time talking to people like us. i have
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talked to people who voted wrecks it andi talked to people who voted wrecks it and i see no change. people say, i don't want to hear the details. i think it is as a likely as impeachment for donald trump. it is possible but it really does not feel likely at this point. a good reference to drop in it was just this week in congress they began impeachment proceedings. unlikely to get very far, but after his european tour, donald trump will be back in the capital over the weekend. his bid legislate if doubt is over the big healthcare bill that he hopes to replace the signature re— form of his predecessor. what does this tell us his predecessor. what does this tell us about donald trump's approach to leadership? he was always going to
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bea leadership? he was always going to be a different type of leader to say the least. he was elected but he really behaves like an oligarch. is very removed from the levers and the gears and the mechanism of government. i don't think he could ca re less government. i don't think he could care less about that. with him, so much as personal. this is so much more about obama. obama the person thanit more about obama. obama the person than it is about the healthcare of the people who might lose the healthcare. so, between, you know, 18 and 20 million something people. it really is so much about obama. but he is very... he is very removed from that. he just wants things to happen because he wants them to happen, therefore they should happen. he gets angry when they do not happen. this is causing serious problems for the people who are writing the bill. he, of course, don't think i don't think he wrote
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the bill. a shocking revelation. again, he is not that kind of guy. the republicans that many million people are hit have lost their healthcare? this is what is interesting. we saw it with climate change now was healthcare. local government in united states, the cities, the state government, governors had a meeting this week in boston and the governors are overwhelmingly opposed to this because they are right that. they are down in the dirt with the healthcare bill and are down in the dirt with the healthca re bill and all that percussions. and so what will happen is that there is huge opposition within the republican party at that level but even in the senate. in the senate you have the moderates who are against it because they don't wa nt are against it because they don't want all these people to lose healthcare. and then you have the extremists who are against it because they just don't extremists who are against it because theyjust don't think extremists who are against it because they just don't think there
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should be health—insurance. because they just don't think there should be health—insurancem because they just don't think there should be health-insurance. it sort of depends where you seats, where it you think is an extremist versus a moderate. ideological either have a position that your point is you can have a coalition of these interest that can kill it. the hardliners are more likely to band than the moderates. the moderates are fewer in number. but the thing is, even if something were to come out of the senate, and they have now extended the legislative term so that they could possibly happen, even if they we re could possibly happen, even if they were to happen, it is by far the end of the story. that point it that you are making a little earlier about leadership with the establishment in france grumbling, in essence, donald trump's problem is that the establishment in washington still seems very much alive. very much. certainly. there is trouble their. he cannot make a lot of changes. he is against a huge wall that. the establishment is strong and sound.
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both parties. the ideas, the establishment finds it all so strange and difficult to deal with the businessman who is still running the businessman who is still running the white house as a businessman. he has not changed. the man, as we all know, everybody knows, has no policy experience whatsoever. pa rachuted down into the white house to run the biggest and most important, the most influential country in the world. with the largest economy. we could almost feel sympathetic for him. i think it is extremely powerful in a sense that so far the checks of the american constitution on his power have not really worked. i think it is extremely worrying when we see the mixing of his private business interests with family in all areas of american publico public policy,
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particularly diplomacy. this is not meant to happen in a democracy and yet the american congress, the two houses, are not saying anything. there is no enquiry, there is no question. there are enquiries... but there is a normalcy to weed. i remember, he has not done anything. his first 100 days have been the most vacant and vacuous. he thinks he canjust most vacant and vacuous. he thinks he can just order whatever he wants and the result is... one thing we do have an enquiry about is the russian connection, if there is one. there are many enquiries into that. we now haveit are many enquiries into that. we now have it catching his family because his son had a meeting and one of the people at the meeting was apparently a former intelligence agent, possibly aspire. and, yet, it does not really seem to be affecting his popularity. morgan his popularity,
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he seems to be able to carry on. his children, they are running the business, they are making statements about american diplomacy. i don't think this is normal. his daughter is still in charge of a business and shows up at g20 meetings. i don't think this is normal. this is not normal. is the most unpopular president for this period of time in memory. but the frustration that you are expressing is that it does not seem to matter. so—called based seems to be about 40%. the problem is until the republican legislators believe their own seats are threatened by donald trump, they are too afraid to move. so until the mid— term elections next year? too afraid to move. so until the mid- term elections next year? or in the run—up to because people begin running, as you know. so they have
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to make assumptions, they have to make plans based on how they think things are going. if they are going badly, then that... because you have one third of senators and all of the congress. every congressman, exactly. i began the programme talking about the waiving of the iraqi flag and mosul. in one sense you would think the president ‘s task of leadership easy. he had a victory, that would give him a boost. is heard as straight forward as that was to certainly not. no doubt he has got the right to say and do we really wants but issue is much more complicated than he is trying to portray. certainly the
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islamic state has been defeated in iraq, no doubt, in mosul. but this is necessary, to do that. but is it sufficient? is it the only thing you need to do in iraq? not to mention syria, of course. so iraq itself has got, on that front, a step forward. but the biggest problem now starts in iraq, which is how to rebuild and rehabilitate, positively. politically, that is. we have a new militia that took part in the liberation of mosul don't need someone to do, they demand a political part. they are the popular mobilisation force, they are iranian revolutionary guards. a shia militia. they are demanding
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political parts to play in deciding the future of the country. do you think there is something quite important around the world that the idea of the caliphate has kind of falle n idea of the caliphate has kind of fallen with mosul, the remains romance of it that drew in people from all over the place. the idea that there was a place and this was the perfect islamic state that would eventually grow and take over the whole of the world. don't you think the force of that has gone in terms of recruitment? oh, yes. certainly. i think the idea of caliphate has been beefed up, either deliberately or unnecessarily. it had no future, right from day one, no doubt about it. don't forget, the vast majority of recruit a non— arabs. they come
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from abroad. they are mostly european, which is strange. you have no future with such a force within an arab environment. the further away you are from, the more romantic it may seem. and it is a different kind, at fruit i'm at least it was a more effective leadership in terms of rallying than some of our own leadership. it was. and i think that is why the coalition that helped iraq to defeat daesh have been critical of amnesty international reports. for propaganda purposes it is important to show to any, to anyone who may be attracted by the romance of the caliphate that they can have a pretty dramatic, pretty horrific and at the hands of the iraqi army. hopefully, in that
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sense, the caliphate propaganda works but i think we have not seen the end of daesh in the region. i think there is still quite a lot of work to do, still, even in iraq. any reasons to be hopeful? yes, yes. there are reasons to be hopeful. 0n mosul i think we're going to find out that some horrendous things happen there and i think it will make all of us feel very, very queasy. but, yes, there is no doubt that on balance this feels like hope. thank you very much to all of you for being with us. thank you as well for joining you for being with us. thank you as well forjoining us for the programme. we return at the same time next week or the senate, but by.. from all of us here, or by. ——
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goodbye. hello there. if saturday was a little bit cloudy for your liking, well, most places can expect something a little brighter during sunday. the skies actually started to brighten in one or two spots on saturday afternoon and evening. that was the sunset in cambridgeshire. and a little earlier in the day, where we saw cloud breaking up a little bit through the the likes of the midlands and northern ireland, temperatures lifted very readily, up to 2a or 25 degrees because of the wedge of warm, humid air that was sitting in place. now, fast—forward to the start of sunday morning, that wedge of warm air is confined to the southern half of the country, where it will be quite cloudy, misty, murky and drizzly in places. a very, very warm start to the day indeed, but something cooler and fresher for northern ireland and for scotland. that will be, though, where we see the best of the sunshine during sunday morning. northern ireland, scotland,
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quite a lot of sunshine, although very blustery winds for northern scotland, perhaps gales in exposed spots, bringing showers into the mix. across the north of england, things will turn increasingly bright as our weather front, this cold front, slips further southward. along the line of the front and to the south of it, it's going to be quite a cloudy start to the day. welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. i'm duncan golestani. our top stories: a huge rally for turkey's president consolidating power a year after the attempted coup. tony blair says britain could win concessions on immigration and stay in the european union. thousands march through hong kong to mark the death of chinese dissident and nobel peace prize winner, liu xiaobo. turkey's president, recep tayyip erdogan,
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has addressed a mass rally to mark a year since the failed military coup.
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