tv BBC Business Live BBC News July 21, 2017 8:30am-9:01am BST
this is business live from bbc news with rachel horne and jamie robertson. the european boss of goldman sachs warns that the city of london needs a brexit transition deal as soon as possible. live from london, that's our top story on friday 21stjuly. theresa may moves to reassure businesses, but the chief executive of goldman sachs international says that the uncertainty is costing the bank money. also in the programme: taking stock of trumponomics. markets have surged but, six months on, and the president is yet to deliver on growth, tax cuts or major reforms. how long will wall street's patience last? these are the european markets... europe is strong and the dollar is
weak, we will bring you the figures. and a big week for china, the inside track with our economic schoolroom andrew walker. —— economic specs but. today, the top story on the bbc website tells of how britain's skies are choc—a—bloc and if nothing's done about it, delays and cancellations will rocket. so our question — what would you do to make flying a better way to travel? welcome to the programme. the man in charge of goldman sachs‘ european operations has urged the uk government to agree a transition deal as soon as possible. the city of london faces a potential cliff edge if it leaves the european union without a formal agreement. goldman sachs employs 6,500 people in the uk and its brexit contingency plans involve adding hundreds of staff to their other european offices. richard gnodde is the head of goldman sachs international. he sat down with the bbc‘s business editor, simon jack. here's what he had to say.
i'm spending money every single day to make sure that, come march 2019, i'm open for business. obviously, as each month goes by, i've spent more of that money. so, certainty becomes less useful for me as we go further down that path. if i knew today that we would have a significant transition period, i could stop spending that money, taking out that insurance. because i'd know i would always have time to transition my business. if they tell me in february of 2019 there will be a transition period, well, i've already spent all that money, it's not much use to me. at that point, the transition period doesn't really help. so, the sooner we know the answer, will there will not be significant transition period, it is obvious to helpful to us. ideally, in an ideal world, you would need to know this year? the sooner, the better. joining us is nandini ramakrishnan, global market strategist atjp morgan asset management. are they going to get a deal?“
are they going to get a deal? is the government listening? that is the big question for financial services and businesses in the uk. we expect and businesses in the uk. we expect a transitional agreement because of how much a priority protecting business and making sure business can function in the uk is. we're a lwa ys can function in the uk is. we're always hearing about the business, the banks, financial services. this goes beyond that industry? across the uk, businesses in services and goods, the production and manufacturing intentions have plummeted since brexit, the referendum result. they have recovered since, but there is still uncertainty, we will see those intentions and ideas for new businesses and greg prospects get wea ker businesses and greg prospects get weaker again. how long do you think they have got? you cannot put a date on it, but it is not quite the end of the year, when have they got to come up with a solution? when 2018
begins is a nice time to reconsider and make sure we do have something because just how important the uk's exports in goods and services is to the rest of the uk is the opposite almost of uk gdp going from the uk to the eu, so a large percentage and important the priority is there. you work in the city of london, what is the feeling? is there a feeling it is too late and businesses have started putting contingency plans into place and we still do not know how it will happen and when and if there will be a transitional deal? there are tonnes of teams across various businesses in the city and ca nary wharf various businesses in the city and canary wharf in the financial centres of the uk, focusing on this. but it is also important to remember that within the financial services, there are different facets. asset management, trade management, banking, different elements filtering through, so still a diverse place in terms of thinking and not all doom and gloom. people
do not feel worried about moving to paris? frankfurt? where is the favourite place? it is a fun pastime to think where one might want to move but it is not a reality by any means on the floor, at least with me. thank you so much. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news... us authorities have fined exxon mobil $2m for violating sanctions against russia while secretary of state rex tillerson was its chief executive. exxon dealt with igor sechin, the president of russian oil giant rosneft, who was blacklisted, the us treasury department said. exxon has challenged the finding, calling it "fundamentally unfair". microsoft says quarterly profit almost doubled to over $6.5 billion — thanks to strong growth in its cloud computing business. microsoft is hoping to be the first choice for businesses relying on cloud computing, as the industry moves away from packaged software. but it faces stiff competition from amazon and google — all three are investing heavily in artificial intelligence. let's stick with the theme of brexit.
uk foreign secretary borisjohnson is injapan to discuss trade relations, ahead of britain's departure from the european union. leisha santorelli is in singapore. hello. what is the feeling of that, what is borisjohnson trying to achieve? well, the japanese are looking for clarity on what britain's relations with the eu will be after brexit and what that means for business. mrjohnson is not directly involved in brexit negotiations but as a senior official, it is important for him to reassure japan's leaders because of the important trading relationship. japanese companies have invested more than $50 billion in the uk and the uk is the second—biggest destination for japanese the uk is the second—biggest destination forjapanese foreign direct investment. to give you more numbers, more than 1,000 japanese firms operate in britain, including
toyota nissan, factories employing thousands of workers across the country. what is interesting, japanese foreign direct investment spiked after the brexit referendum last year. according to data from capital economic is. that shows continued confidence. but that sentiment could change depending on whether we see a hard brexit or a soft brexit. there is the question of whether the uk and japan could signa of whether the uk and japan could sign a free trade deal after brexit given japan's assigned one sign a free trade deal after brexit givenjapan‘s assigned one with the eu not long ago. thank you very much for that. president donald trump has been in office for six months. he made some big promises on the us economy — inspiring a wave of optimism among investors. but most of them are still just that, promises. and some are now questioning the reality of trumponomics — or to use the new catchphrase, maganomics — as in make america great again. let's take a look. the dowjones index surged on mr trump's election in november and it has continued its upwards
march after breaking through the 20,000 mark at the start of the year. it's up 3,200 points, or 17%, since the election. but political divisions are beginning to see the trump agenda grind to a halt. take his flagship policy, replacing the affordable healthcare act — or 0bamacare. he's struggling to get fellow republicans to agree on what should replace it. 0ne senior figure in the party is now warning it may take as long as two years for this to happen. that has raised doubts over political support for some of his other plans, the ones that got wall street so excited, cutting regulation in the energy and banking sectors, and the big one — his highly anticipated overhaul of the tax system that would see big cuts for business and middle income earners. so what about the broader economy itself? president trump promised to raise the gdp growth rate to 3%, a level it hasn't sustained since the 1990s. but six months in, that goal still looks a long way off. in the first three
months of this year — despite being revised up — the figure's less than half of that. and the rate for april tojune is expected to be better, but still fall way short. with me is leslie vinjamuri, associate fellow, us & the americas programme, at chatham house. what is strange with those figures, the economy seems to be doing well and the market is doing well, but he has achieved nothing, i am right when i say that? he has not achieved very much, especially in light of what he aims to achieve. his two big achievements are paper achievements, pulling the us out of the trans—pacific pulling the us out of the tra ns—pacific partnership pulling the us out of the trans—pacific partnership and has taken the us out of paris. what his corporate base wanted is to see, as we have seen, tax reform, his base is interested in the repeal of the affordable care act, and those
things are not happening. repealing the affordable care act essential forfunding tax the affordable care act essential for funding tax reform. the affordable care act essential forfunding tax reform. there is not only no success on the stage for that, but there was also no clear detail and for tax reform. this is a president who has not been very interested in working with congress and building the coalitions that we re necessary and building the coalitions that were necessary to push any of these legislative policies drew in large pa rt legislative policies drew in large part because he is very distracted by what is going on with the russian investigations. what is stopping him from getting legislation through? he has a majority. it was a satisfactory election for him. why is he not achieving change that he promised? that is right, there are many things going on. first, he does not seem to have the temperament to focus on the details to build political coalitions. there has been distraction as a result of remember one of the core things he wanted to do was to reset the relationship between the united states and russia
and this has become one of the most difficult things because he is being investigated and those around him for their ties to russia so tremendous focus within the white house just tremendous focus within the white housejust simply tremendous focus within the white house just simply and trying to deal with this crisis. he is also at the level of governance failing to put forward well over 4,000 400 names subject to senate confirmation. if you look at the bureaucracy, they are not functioning at the level they need to take on his deregulatory agenda. a bit of crystal ball gazing, is this going to come to a head, is there going to bea to come to a head, is there going to be a crisis, or is this going to be a slow, really unpleasant grinding for —— four years and it is going to get worse? this is the big question, with many wondering, will there be impeachment? that is very far away i think, as long as the republicans control both houses. but whether it is grinding, his approval ratings are still hovering around 36%.
how does that compare? that is not great. it is very low for a president. and even lower if you consider his strong approval ratings are down to 20%, that is very low. remember that politics does not operate in a vacuum and there is no obvious alternative challenging, there is no vision or obvious alternative, so i think we are likely to see grinding along and a series of the bomb calls along the way. thank you very much. —— and a series of problems along the way. still to come... a big week for china, the inside track with our economic specs but. you're with business live from bbc news. vodafone says that it is seeing good momentum in europe, with robust growth in italy and spain. the world's second largest mobile operator saw sales up 2.2% at 10.3 billion euros.
matthew howett, telecoms analyst at 0vum joins us now. how have they been doing in the uk? they have had problems in the uk with customer service. well—publicised problems with customer service have been going on a couple of years. there is a recovery under way. the changes they are making to improve the service for customers is getting noticed and things like the net promoter, whether vodafone get recommended to other people, is getting better so the turnaround is working. what about elsewhere? they have done quite well in southern europe with challenges in india, is that correct? yes, southern europe is looking good, they have seen a lot of revenue growth because the price has been going up. india is a lot more challenging, a new competitor has come into the marketplace which has come into the marketplace which has challenged the existing by almost giving away data and vodafone has struggled in particular. why strip —— weiss southern europe? the
economy is not known for being strong. a couple of reasons. initially, they have successfully increased the amount consumers pay each month so the revenues have gone up. in spain, they have been able to sell across the portfolio of products and notjust mobile phones, things like broadband to consumers. what is next for vodafone? ultimately, vodafone has to look at its position in the uk. it is a british company and it needs to be number one, it is number three. british company and it needs to be number one, it is numberthree. it wa nts to number one, it is numberthree. it wants to turn that around two leading position and it needs to focus on how it will do that by thinking what is next. things like five g, for example. thank you very much for your time. left and look at what is going on in business. we have michael gove talking to farmers today. he seems to be coming out as quite a green environment secretary. he is using a speech in surrey to
save farmers will continue to receive funding after the uk leaves the eu, but only if they agree to protect the environment and rural life. another story on the website is all about the uk skies. it is potentially the busiest day for flying in the uk. we want you to get in touch and let us know what he would do to improve airport travel. that is your report? but my name is not on at! sad! you're watching business live. our top story — the man in charge of goldman sachs' european operations has urged the uk government to agree a transition deal as soon as possible. goldman sachs employs 6,500 people in the uk and its brexit contingency plans involve adding hundreds of staff to their other european offices. let's look at how the markets have been getting on this morning. you can see the ftse is up ever so slightly. 0n the currency markets we
have a very strong euro. the dollar continues to be weak. yes, after the meeting of the european central bank. dropped a hint saying there might be some tough monetary policy. we are not going to talk about that. we are not going to talk about that. we are not going to talk about that. we are going to get the inside track on the other big economic news of the week, china. they have been in the week, china. they have been in the spotlight after announcing growth figures. that's right. so, give us the figures. what was the reaction? 6.996, the second quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. it was a little better than most people expected. i think most thought that the fact the chinese authorities had been taking a bit of authorities had been taking a bit of a clamp—down on financial risks, concerns about the growth of debt, very strong housing markets, there we re very strong housing markets, there were concerns that they might conceivably be the foundations for future financial instability. the
clamp—down has not been reflected in growth figures, that did hold up better than some people expected. maybe we shouldn't attach too much weight to a tenth of a percentage point here or there. and chinese figures? that's my point. capital economics, the london consultancy, say they doubt it is the official growth figures. implausibly stable growth figures. implausibly stable growth over recent years, they say. but they do also take the view that what we saw in the latest figures, particularly if you look atjune, it does seem to be holding up quite well. they do think, and i think there is good reason for thinking this, that the clamp—down on financial risks is likely to take a little bit of the steam out of the economy. we have the congress coming up economy. we have the congress coming up as well, the political side of it? it is good to have these figures? that is true. it is worth taking a step back and thinking about the longer—term context, which is china's attempt to manage a
transition to a slower pace of growth. it was an average of 10% a yearin growth. it was an average of 10% a year in the three decades after 2010, to something that is more sustainable, lest riven by investment, less driven by exports and with a bigger role for the chinese consumer. you mentioned exports, that is the other story we had out of china. 0n exports, that is the other story we had out of china. on tuesday, the meeting with the us over trade. president trump set 100 days to try to start doing more china— us trade. they couldn't even agree on how to word what they disagreed about? indeed, they didn't hold press conferences. we got news during the day that those had been cancelled. that can often be a sign ofjust how difficult negotiations are. at an earlier stage in the process, a couple of months earlier, they managed to agree on improved access for american beef to china, credit rating agencies and chinese cooked chicken. that is really low level stuff. it does indicate that it is going to be difficult. resident
trump wants to see a major reduction in the bilateral deficit. frankly, a lot of economists would tell you that what really drives trade bala nces that what really drives trade balances is not so much this kind of minutiae of trade policy, but the level of savings. america is a relatively low save the economy, china is a very high saving economy. away from china, greece, the imf has decided tojoin the away from china, greece, the imf has decided to join the party, away from china, greece, the imf has decided tojoin the party, lending money. has there been dancing in the streets in greece this week?|j money. has there been dancing in the streets in greece this week? i think not. imf is only provisionally joining the party. they have agreed a programme of1.6 joining the party. they have agreed a programme of 1.6 billion euros in the context of a bailout from the eurozone that is up to 86. it is a small contribution, moving towards the imf result of some of the doubts that it has about the programme. they are also saying they are not actually going to handle money over until they have more assurances
about debt relief for the future. nonetheless, christine lagarde, going to her board and saying i think we should make this commitment in principle and board has said yes. that represents the imf‘s member countries. let us know when they hand it over. now it is time for the next in our series of million—dollar ideas. now we look at the family favourite, the frisbee. summer is here! get to the beach! queue the sun and the frisbee! who came up with the idea? 1938... walter morrison and his wife were on a beach in california, tossing a metal cake pan to and fro. people offered to buy it for five times more than they paid for it in the shop. easy money. guess what? was
made into business. after the war, he made better flying made into business. after the war, he made betterflying versions made into business. after the war, he made better flying versions out of plastic and sold the design to the toy company wham—0. they called it the... well, the boss had heard about students who had tossed around empty pie trays from the frisbee baking company. so he took the name, changed the i 4—iron e and the brand was born. they got it involved in sports like frisbee golf. the world record throw was 338 metres. there you go! he is not safe to be let out. alan haselhurst, if you didn't realise. let's see what the media has been taking an interest in. nandini ramakrishnan, global market strategist atjp morgan asset management, is joining us again to discuss. the fed, fining exxon $2 million? it
is all to do with rex tillerson? there were business deals done when there were sanctions on russia. exxon is claiming there is a line where it was not specified between the personal and business sanctions in place. 0verall, it's not great news for some of that is very much in the spotlight politically in the us, in the trump administration. doesn't tie into the rush administration, itjust doesn't look good? two separate issues and streams going on. again, as it comes out in the media, it is not great for the trump administration and the general sense of keeping things in russia clean. not that $2 million is anything to exxon? no, they are contending they didn't necessarily know. saying it is unfair? exactly. at the start of the programme, we
mentioned the story on the bbc website, uk air traffic controllers warning of overcrowded skies. they say today could be one of the busiest days for travel in the uk. jamie wrote this story, but it doesn't have his byline! we will give him credit. it's staggering, 8800 flights expected today. give him credit. it's staggering, 8800 flights expected todaym marks the beginning of a doubling of the size and manchester airport. all airports are seeing growth in air traffic. the problem is, the place is just crammed with aeroplanes. they've got to reorganise everything in order to be able to make it work. it's interesting, taking a step back. the airline industry is always in the news in terms of profits, because it is such a high difficulty area of making profits, getting price competition between different airlines. as these guys get busier and is the airports get busier, it put even more pressure on them for delivering that service. the other side of the story, actually, the
whole thing coincides, there are a lot of things happening today to do with aviation. there is the consultation paper being put out by the uk government. they are looking up the uk government. they are looking up the entire industry, everything from drones, the way you do baggage handling, the way you fly from one airport to another. it is the whole lot. there is a consultation paper going out, any people with ideas on how to improve it, write to the government. the first ideas are coming in as we speak. james says that air travel is where we wanted it to be 15 years ago, i would say stop moaning and get used to it. chris says that it has changed for the worst, so undignified for wheelchair users. he says airlines are refusing to adapt. for 100 yea rs, are refusing to adapt. for 100 years, they refused to adapt. 0ne other story, an interesting one. the wall streetjournal. low other story, an interesting one. the wall street journal. low income earners are getting the fastest wage growth. this is what happens when
you get full employment? in the us imply that rate —— and implement rate, it is below 5%, it is a tight labour market. it gives people that are looking forjobs a bit more power. it is the low in the the income bracket that is able to do it. could it happen here? we are behind in terms of the tightness of the labour market, but ifjobs keep getting taken up, there is the power of negotiation they can have. thank you very much for your time this morning. that is it from us. we have come to the end of business live. you will get more business news throughout the day on the web page. have a great weekend and we will see you again next week. good morning. ithink
good morning. i think it is going to be fairto good morning. i think it is going to be fair to say that for some of us todayit be fair to say that for some of us today it is not going to be a very nicejuly day today it is not going to be a very nice july day at all. today it is not going to be a very nicejuly day at all. a deep area of low pressure is moving from the west. with it, some particularly heavy rain and also some strong wind. the strongest of the wins will be across wales and south—west england, particularly around the coasts, where there will be some gales. the rain is going to be quite heavy as well. if you are travelling towards the south—west of wales today, bear that in mind. there could be some disruption to your travel, if you are starting off on your summer travel, if you are starting off on your summer holidays. let's look at things about 4pm. you can see by the bright colours in south—western england, really quite heavy rain here with gales around the coastal areas. heavy rain across wales, particularly south wales. for central and eastern parts of england, into eastern scotland, it should be largely dry today. bright spells as well. at this stage in the afternoon, drier weather coming into northern ireland, plenty of sunshine
in the far north and north—west of scotland. that rain really will be quite heavy, as i mentioned. strong wind as well. but further east, in the sunshine, temperatures getting up the sunshine, temperatures getting up to about 2124 celsius. not too bad. disappointingly cool in the west, with the wind and rain. quite challenging conditions at royal birkdale for the open. strong wind from the south—easterly direction. saturday coming to the weekend, looking a bit better. but there will be the odd shower around. let's look at the weekend. this area of low pressure is still going to be with us. pressure is still going to be with us. it is going to slowly move eastwards. strong wind in the south—west of england and wales. there will be some sunny spells and showers. showers will be heavy, thundery, a bit more in a way of rain across central and southern scotland. some places staying com pletely scotland. some places staying completely dry. eastern parts of england staying mostly dry. even if you catch a shower, sunny spells in
between. showers are fewer in number on sunday, but one two could be on the heavy side. more persistent rain into the south—east of scotland. maximum temperature is 1722 celsius. that is where they should be for the time of year. if you get caught in showers, it might feel quite cool and breezy at times. as i mentioned, if you get some sunshine, it will feel quite pleasant. more details available on the website. i'll be back with more later on. see you later. hello, it's 9 o'clock. i'm joanna gosling. welcome to the programme. two people are dead and more than a hundred injured during an earthquake on the greek island of kos. they area is a popular with tourists including many from the uk. my mum looked at me and she said, "we've got to get out of here." so we did, we ran. we'll have the latest and speak to people caught up in the quake. a british woman is demanding an apology after an airline