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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  September 22, 2017 8:30am-9:01am BST

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this is business live from bbc news with rachel horne and jamie robertson. britain will push for a brexit transition period that would keep it in the single market for two years. but can it break the stalemate over money? live from london, that's our top story on friday september 22nd. british prime minister theresa may is in florence where she's likely to pledge billions to break the brexit deadlock also in the programme — north korea's suggestion of a hydrogen bomb test prompts a rise injapan‘s currency. we explain why. a shaky start on the markets. we will bring you details throughout the programme. plus, we'll be looking back on a busy business week — and wrapping up the fed,
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a visit to canada and protests for independence in spain with our economics editor later in the programme. and as some of california's cities sue major oil companies for rising sea levels — because of climate change — we want to know who's really to blame. let us know on twitter? just use the hashtag bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. we start in florence, italy, where british prime minister theresa may will set out her position on brexit in a speech later. with just 18 months to go before the uk is set to leave the eu, she hopes it will break the stalemate in negotiations. so what are we expecting? sources have told the bbc that theresa may will ask for a transition period of up to two years after the uk leaves in march 2019. she will offer to keep paying into the eu budget during that transition —
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so other eu member states don't have to contribute more as a consequence of the uk leaving. at current levels that would amount to about 20 billion euros — about $24 billion. in return — she wants uk access to the eu single market and some form of customs union in the transition period. this could save british firms from a ‘cliff edge‘ situation and allow the uk time to negotiate new trade deals. this won't end the wrangling over money though. counting long—term liabilities like eu pensions and debts — brussels has put britain's total exit bill at up to 100 billion euros or nearly $120 billion. so will it break the deadlock? we will soon find out — the next round of brexit negotiations start on 25th september — this monday. pieter cleppe is the head of the brussels office of open europe, an independent research body. is this going to be enough to get a deal or is itjust keeping the show
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on the road? well, we shouldn't forget that the eu side is not demanding a final deal on the money. it only wants to achieve material progress before it was willing to move on to trade talks. so the initial idea was to decide if there was enough progress at the october summit but this has become so symbolic that i don't think the eu will be willing to give the uk government this victory so in all likelihood, if there is a decision to move to the trade stage, then this will be in december. 50 what you are saying also is that europe has the uk slightly over a barrel, because they're not going to move on to trade talks and not move on until they get what they want in terms of they get what they want in terms of the money and say agreement on eu citizens‘ rights and uk citizens‘
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rights and the northern ireland border? initially the european commission wanted to demand that there is a final deal on the money before there could be trade talks but this was watered down by the eu 27 capitals. so it‘s all become a little bit symbolic but at the end of the day i think we only have a final agreement on the money at a very end when there is a deal on everything because it‘s politics, everything because it‘s politics, everything is linked to everything. in the speech theresa may will also specify likely some concessions on citizens‘ rights so actually what britain has proposed in terms of the rights of people would get that is largely 0k rights of people would get that is largely ok for the eu side. the eu is mostly worried that it will be very ha rd is mostly worried that it will be very hard for citizens to actually obtain these rights so as i understand it britain would commit
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to some kind of direct effect of these rights which would sort of make it easier for people to get their citizens‘ rights. make it easier for people to get their citizens' rights. in the past their citizens' rights. in the past the uk prime minister has said she would take no deal over a bad deal. is there a feeling when she comes to the table today we have been told there are going to be warm words, there are going to be warm words, there are going to be numbers given, is there now a realisation perhaps a deal needs to be made? of course the uk wantsa deal needs to be made? of course the uk wants a deal and the eu also wa nts a uk wants a deal and the eu also wants a deal but imagine if theresa may would say that she would accept any deal whatsoever, i mean that would dramatically weaken her negotiating position, wouldn‘t it? so we shouldn‘t read all too much into that. it‘s clear that the uk government wants a negotiated brexit, not a cliff—edge brexit. actually, when you want a negotiated brexit, then there is not so many options on the table. of course you
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need a transition period, but at the end of the day britain cannot be a rule—taker like norway, end of the day britain cannot be a rule—ta ker like norway, it‘s end of the day britain cannot be a rule—taker like norway, it‘s too big, too important for that. also you couldn‘t imagine that britain would keep outsourcing its trade policies, so eventually the uk will leave both the customs union and the single market. thank you very much. op single market. thank you very much. 0p other stories making the news. facebook founder mark zuckerberg says his company will share 3,000 russia—linked political adverts with us investigators. in a live address on his facebook profile, he pledged to make political advertising more transparent on his network in future — with disclaimers about which campaign or organisation paid for it. the move is being interpreted by some as an attempt to fend off any potential regulation from the us government. president trump has signed a new order that boosts us sanctions against north korea over its nuclear weapons programme. the us treasury has been authorised to target firms and financial institutions conducting business
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with the north. the president also said china‘s central bank had instructed other chinese banks to stop doing business with pyongyang. a top us financial regulator faces questions about its preparation for cyberattacks, after disclosing a breach of a key database of company filings. the securities and exchange commission said a software vulnerability allowed access to private information and may have led to illicit trading. the yen has climbed against the dollar after north korea suggested it might test a hydrogen bomb over the pacific ocean. tim mcdonald is in singapore. the yen, it seems bizarre that you have an appreciating yen at a time when japan is, as have an appreciating yen at a time whenjapan is, as it were in the firing line, literally, i suppose? yeah, that‘s right. you think japan‘s currency might not be where
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investors flee to if japan is the one at risk. it turns out that‘s not the case at all. a little history might be instructive here. the yen isa might be instructive here. the yen is a robust currency, after the 2011 time and nuclear disaster investors ploughed so much money into it the took government intervention to bring it back down to normal levels. what‘s happening today, analysts have told me there are a few things at work. investors see it as more of an economic threat rather than a security threat. this crisis might dent confidential or a block yad might have a cost but nobody‘s vice—presidenting —— expecting war. if this is run of the mill bad times people will do what they always do and put money into yen. secondly, it‘s actually really only seems to be the only save haven in town. investors seem to rate the us dollar and gold as riskier than putting money into the yen. so the yen turns out to still be a save haven currency and that‘s where investsers are putting money. thank you very much.
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we are going to talk about the markets. 0vernight asian markets had a bit of a wobble — investors feeling jumpy once more about geo—political tensions in north korea — also a bit of selling for profit happening as traders cashed in after a good week. wall street closed down with a second downgrade of china‘s debt rating also adding to the negative feeling. european markets are open — north korea weighing on investors around the world. samira hussain has the details about what‘s ahead on wall street today. apple unveiled three new phones and advanced watch that can take calls and a new apple tv. but die—hard fa ns and a new apple tv. but die—hard fans will not be able to get the new iphone x until november 3. the iphone x until november 3. the iphone 8 and 8 plus will go on sale onfully friday —— on friday. the
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organisation of the petroleum exporting countries, 0pec and non—0pec countries are meeting to discuss a possible extension of a deal to cut supply to cut oil prices. the 0pec aims to clear a global glut of oil by curbing output by about 1. global glut of oil by curbing output by about1. 2 global glut of oil by curbing output by about 1. 2 million karls —— barrels per day. russia and other non—0pec producers agreed to cut half as march until —— half as mch until march 2018. now the markets. joining us is james quinn, group business editor at the daily telegraph/sunday telegraph. 0pec, talking about there, does it have much control over the price at the moment do you think? not particularly. speculation, obviously 0pec is a cartel of sorts and so it should have, but it hasn‘t had of late. there was a lot of talk in march of a supply cut and that would
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do to the price, the price has been pretty much flat if you look at the last six months. what do you think will happen? i think they'll probably fudge it, suggesting there won‘t be a cut and the price will continue to hover around this mark we have had for sometime. way off the 100 dollar mark. are they happy, is saudi happy? i think on an historic basis, it‘s not bad. two yea rs historic basis, it‘s not bad. two years ago on 100 dollars, you know, greed is all round and it‘s all about money. do you think they'll get back up to 100 dollars, that‘s one of the reasons why they keep cutting ply to increase demand and the price? behind this is a possible float, the world‘s biggest public company. a higher value of oil at the time of the float, the higher the time of the float, the higher the greater money the saudi royal family will receive from whatever is sold. you have this prospect of shale stepping in as soon as the price goes above a certain level,
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shale comes in. and stops the price going higher. you have that balancing factor and so once 0pec was all in the 70s and 80s, particularly not so much. briefly, china‘s downgrading on the nation‘s credit rating, tell us what impact that‘s had? credit rating, tell us what impact that's had? i think that's had a certain impact. what is more concerning coming down the track is the impact of fed tightening on china and money coming out of china. interest rates go up in the states. a warning on that yesterday. we will have you back at the end of the programme. still to come, we take a look back at some of the week‘s biggest business stories. including theresa may‘s visit to canada, a lot of travel for the british prime minister. how fruitful were those talks? 0ur economic editor will be here to discuss. you‘re with business live from bbc news. slough in berkshire has come top of a list for work, the cost
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of living and employee satisfaction. jobs site glassdoor, which has been measuring the 25 best uk towns & cities to work in for 2017 — says its study showed that slough had emerged as a "prime spot" as cities like london have become too expensive. mark di—toro from glassdoor joins us now. you are going to have to give us, the last time i went to slough, with all due respect, i didn‘t really like it very much. good question. look, deciding where to live is one of the most important decisions we all make. therefore, it must be an informed decision. using data like this to make the best decisions, employers love informed employees. it's employers love informed employees. it‘s decisions to be made by the head and not the heart. slough is, if you look at the data, slough has average salary levels which are the same as london. has lots ofjobs, huge multinational companies based
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across that tech backbone of london around that area and people are satisfied, people are happy. and we re satisfied, people are happy. and were you surprised that it was slough, were there other surprises on the list, or has slough been inching up over recent years? slough is new to the list this year, it‘s come out of nowhere. 0ur is new to the list this year, it‘s come out of nowhere. our data looks at the last 12 months. it‘s been a surge injobs in slough. there‘s huge low unemployment rates there. surprisingly, we had newcastle in the list for the first time, luton. and other regions like that. the list is full of companies around that midlands area of the uk which is close to heathrow airport and in terms of businesses it‘s cheaper to be based there and the employees are cheaper to hire. do these lists a chilly matter, who looks at them? this is the thing, it‘s about making
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people as informed as possible, job seekers. ifjob—seekers are looking at this, they will be better hires, they will stay at companies for longer and be more satisfied, and in terms of employers, they like these kind of employees because they stay longer at the company and reduce better work in the long run. where do you live and where did it come in the list? and would you live in slough? i live in brixton, and i pay a lot of the mortgage so maybe i would live somewhere in the future where my money would go bit further 999 " where my money would go bit further egg —— would go a bit further! you‘re watching business live. our top story. the british prime minister is hoping to address the brexit divorce bill during her speech in florence later on friday. and now let‘s take a look back at some of the week‘s bigger stories. the us federal reserve has confirmed it will start to unwind its massive
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asset purchase from next month as it left borrowing costs on hold. and canadian companies have much greater access to one of the world‘s largest markets as a major trade deal between canada and the european union enters into force. could that mean good news for a post—brexit britain? 0ur economics correspondent andrew walker is here. welcome to the programme again. good to have you back. let‘s start with the federal reserve. winding up that massive quantitative easing. yes, they have bought a total of something like three and a half trillion dollars worth of financial assets, government bonds and bonds issued by agencies that support housing finance in the united states, and they are going to add long last start winding down. they‘re going to do it in the most extraordinarily cautious way. against that 3.5 trillion total assets they hold altogether, they
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hold 4.5 assets they hold altogether, they hold 11.5 trillion, they will sell off at 10 billion per month. they are not actually going to sell off, they are just are not actually going to sell off, they arejust going are not actually going to sell off, they are just going to allow these bonds to mature naturally. when you get the repayment, there‘s the question of what to do with the money and the fed has been reinvesting the money, and they‘re going to cut down the amount they are reinvesting. i think market in the first instance are barely going to notice the difference. so when the bond matures, they will pay themselves? strictly speaking, the us treasury or the housing finance agencies pays the fed, and then the fed then go and reinvest that money by buying more bonds that have been issued by the government. they have been very cautious about this and the market reaction now that has been confirmed? frankly, the market knew what was going to happen so no reaction. i think that‘s what they wa nt to reaction. i think that‘s what they
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want to achieve, minimum possible reaction, i think they remember the taper tantrum in 2015 went —— 2013 when it was spoken about merely reducing the rate which the fed was buying. it is what all central bankers do, they give an enormous amount of warning before they do anything, they treat the market with kid gloves. it's striking the way it changed. if you think of alan greenspan, who did sometimes take the markets by surprise and i rather think there were occasions when he thought that was a useful thing to do. that‘s not the way they work now at all. let's talk about canada, theresa may was in canada, they have put the finishing touches to ceta, their trade agreement with the eu, there is hope that this is a trade agreement that once we have extracted from the eu, we could copy and paste. there are a couple of issues, one is whether that
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agreement would continue to apply with uk trade with canada after brexit, but the other thing could be it could be a model but tamim the uk and the remainder and the eu as a new trade model. —— between the uk and the remainder of the fourth and the remainder of the eu. new trade model. —— between the uk and the remainder of the eu. i think most people would tell you this is still not as closer relationship, not the same degree of regulatory relationship as you get as being pa rt relationship as you get as being part of the eu or the economic area which includes norway and a few others. as regards these bilateral agreements between big trading blocs, is this a high watermark? is this the end of the phase?” blocs, is this a high watermark? is this the end of the phase? i do wonder, there is certainly a lot of domestic political resistance to these agreements in the eu, which
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has slowed them down. in the united states we have got a new scepticism about the type of agreement at the trump administration, who very quickly decided not to go ahead with the transpacific partnership and the negotiations with the eu, the transatlantic trade in partnership, thatis transatlantic trade in partnership, that is going nowhere. there is one going on with japan? the eu has agreed one in principle, that‘s been in the pipeline for a long time to thatis in the pipeline for a long time to that is probably going to go ahead. so catalonia have got a referendum called by the separatist government for independence, but madrid has issued some pretty stuck economic warnings. there is an economic context to this although there are obviously a lot of other issues involved. 0ne obviously a lot of other issues involved. one of the perceptions of some parts of catalan society is that they are subsidising the rest of spain, madrid robbed us is a phrase which is sometimes used. the spanish finance minister have been
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talking about the risk of a shock production of economic activity in catalonia if they went independent, the idea being that if that were to happen, they would find themselves outside the european union and outside the european union and outside the european union and outside the euro zone. that would be disruptive but the question as to whether that would be the political result would depend to a significant extent by decisions taken no spanish government. do you think there is an economic course to this, do they have cause to resent madrid? it's certainly in there and one of the things that the spanish government has suggested is that if the referendum is called off, they will enter into talks about the idea of having greater economic and financial autonomy for catalonia. but it is notjust about that. there‘s a different language there, for goodness‘ sake. there are other
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issues of a distinctive catalonian identity. the brains behind a business unit, from america to canada to spain! in a moment we‘ll take a look through the business pages but first here‘s a quick reminder of how to get in touch with us. the business live pages where you stay ahead with all the days breaking news, we will keep you up—to—date with the latest detail with insight and analysis from the editors around the world. we want to hear from you as well, get involved in the bbc business live web page. you can find is on twitter and facebook. we are back to look at some papers, let‘s talk about a story that we asked you to tweet about, san francisco and oakland are set to sue oil company is over rising fees,
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we‘re asking you —— rising sea levels, who is to blame? kevin said, global warming, levels, who is to blame? kevin said, globalwarming, reporters levels, who is to blame? kevin said, global warming, reporters who go to puerto rico jarring puerto rico —— global warming, reporters who go to puerto rico —— during a hurricane contribute with the jet fuel. and michael says, sea levels are not at all historically unusual. maybe he doesn‘t believe in climate change. this story is quite interesting, you look at when people first took on the tobacco companies. absolutely, in terms of what the cases are about, these cases focus on a public nuisance in the american legal system. they are not the first cases, there are two existing suits in california that have been california. —— that have been brought. small counties going up against big oil, against chevron, bp and shell. have they got a chance?
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it seems unlikely. do you think this is to get money? they talk about how much they got to spend, $500 million ona much they got to spend, $500 million on a wall in san francisco for flood barriers in the short—term, do you think they are looking for money or do you think this is more of a trying to get public opinion and raise awareness? will it not open the floodgates? you have been waiting all morning to say that! cities in seven cisco might want to get some money, but what about, —— in san francisco might want to get samantha, but what about, as you have pointed out, those poor hurricane hit islands in the caribbean? it‘s difficult to see, it clearly climate change point, a time when donald trump says he‘s going to withdraw from the paris agreement and hasn‘t done it yet, clearly environmentalists want to get their point across. let's talk about
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lillian bettencourt, she was the world‘s richest woman, she inherited the l‘0real empire, did she do anything with it apart from indulge ina number of anything with it apart from indulge in a number of scandals? that's right, she inherited it from her father, her mother died when she was very young. she was seen as the matriarch of l‘0real, her family still owns 30% of the company. in a world where faceless conglomerates control many of the world‘s biggest brands, the fact that she was seen asa brands, the fact that she was seen as a public figure, although not really seen in the last ten years or so due to failing health, the fact that she kept the businesses together. the scandals were about people trying to get her money. you can read all about that on the bbc website. thank you for coming in. that‘s it from business live today, there will be more business news throughout the day on the bbc website and we will see you tomorrow. good morning. today is the autumn
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equinox and it certainly felt very autumnal this morning, temperature down to single figures that the clear skies. high pressure with us in the morning but to the west, we have a weather front which is bringing outbreaks of rain towards northern ireland at the moment. that will spread north and east, any patchy fog across eastern areas will disappear by 11am and then plenty of sunshine in eastern and south—eastern areas while the rain continues to move eastwards. this afternoon should remain dry in the south—east, temperatures getting up to 18 or 19 degrees. we will see the rain spreading into south—west england, in through wales, a patchy rain into the midlands, north—west england as well, eventually that will hop over the pennines into the north—east. for scotland we will see some rain into the afternoon but some rain into the afternoon but some brighter skies, particularly in the north—east of scotland.
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temperature 13 or 1a degrees, improving in northern ireland later on as the rain clears. this evening, the rain becomes lighter and more patchy, staying across southern areas but with much more cloud around tonight compared to last night, you will notice that difference in temperature. but takes us difference in temperature. but takes us into the weekend which will be dry for many of us, will rein in the west and it will feel quite warm. we have got a big area of low—pressure sitting out towards the west and you can see these weather fronts straddled across the uk. these weather fronts don‘t have much rain in them, but a lot of cloud. quite thick cloud so there will be some light and patchy rain in the morning across wales, the midlands, eastern england, that will transfer northward into the afternoon and that will bring some sunshine into southern areas. sunshine in the
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north—east of scotland and northern ireland, temperatures in the sunshine will feel quite pleasant into saturday afternoon. by sunday, we will see a bit of rain moving from northern ireland into western scotland, wales and the south—west of england. the east of that, it will remain dry that is where we will remain dry that is where we will see the highest actors. —— temperatures. 2a degrees, pretty good for the end of september. more details on the website. hello, it‘s 9 o‘clock. welcome to the programme. the prime minster theresa may is making a major speech on brexit today in the italian city of florence. she is expected to tell the audience that history willjudge brexit not for the differences we face but for the vision we showed. mrsmay is to tell eu leaders it‘s in your interests too to strike a brexit deal as she unveils new proposals on the rights of eu nationals and the amount of money britain‘s prepared to pay to leave the eu. also in the programme. the leader of north korea,
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kimjong—un, has called us president donald trump mentally deranged after the us president‘s speech at the united nations this week where he said the us
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