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tv   Weather World  BBC News  October 20, 2017 9:30pm-10:01pm BST

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afg ha n afghan officials so that... the second targeted mosque in the province. european leaders have concluded their summit in brussels. the eu says that rumours of a deadlock in brexit negotiations are not true. and donald trump has provoked fury in the uk after linking a link of crime with islamic terror. and 9 million people have died according to our water pollution is according to a new study. at ten o'clock, so the real work will be hit with a full run top of
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—— round—up of the evening ‘s news. now, weather world. this time on weather world, i'm in florida in the united states where the power of hurricane irma has had devastating consequences. and we will be speaking to scientists about cyclones here in the web this centre. we will be looking at the season's other major hurricanes, including harvey and maria. plus the science behind these monster storms, and how climate change could be affecting them. from harvey's unprecedented tropical deluge in texas. it slammed into the caribbean, before heading to
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florida. to the explosive intensification of maria, as the caribbean took another devastating hit. this is the story of a hurricane season that at times has produced more power, more rain and more destruction than ever recorded. we can talk about wind speed, we can talk about pressure, but it is a com pletely talk about pressure, but it is a completely different thing to experience a hurricane first—hand. welcome to this special edition of weather world. from here in florida, where the extensive damage caused by hurricane irma will take months to repair. it was here in september, when hurricane irma became part of one of the most lives athletic hurricane seasons. and some say the
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most damaging since hurricanes katrina slammed into new orleans killing 1800 people over a decade ago. before hurricane irma, there was harvey. here at the bbc weather centre, we have been following the twists and turns of a remarkable and record—setting atlantic hurricane season. hurricane record—setting atlantic hurricane season. hurricane harvey, bound for the texas in august brought warnings of catastrophic flooding. it went on to become the usa's wetters tropical cyclone ever recorded. 4000 —— over 4000 days. that's how long it had been said a major hurricane had hit the usa. but, harvey changed all that. having rapidly intensified its mid lands formed in texas, as a category four storm, with winds of 130 must power. it was the most powerful hurricane to hit texas and
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96 di. powerful hurricane to hit texas and 96 d1. did you sleep? no, i secured the roof, and about 1030, there is a tree in my yard. and then their house is completely gone. but after the initial destruction, worse was to come. the storm, was only slowly edging towards louisiana, still able to tap into... it became a prolific rain maker. as street is taken into rivers, the us to prescribe the situation as unprecedented. this was new hurricane territory, and houston, the fourth—largest city in the uk ah usa, was a democrat in the bull's—eye. as the deluge went on, more and more people had to abandon their homes. with anything that could float becoming part of a makeshift armada leading people to safety. this is what harvey did to
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histon, killing it at least 30 people in this area alone, and almost 80 in total. this is what —— this shows the remarkable transmission. as much a 64 inches over 1600 millimetres of rain fell ina over 1600 millimetres of rain fell in a week—long deluge, causing billions of dollars of damage. hurricanes, i a formidable force of nature that can cause devastation. how do they form? why has 2070 been so how do they form? why has 2070 been so intense? let's take a look at the science behind the storms. hurricanes form due to an area of low pressure that strengthens rapidly over tropical or subtropical waters. a cluster of thunderstorms can form, waters. a cluster of thunderstorms canform, and waters. a cluster of thunderstorms can form, and then they draw in a flow of warm and moist air, as they move flow of warm and moist air, as they m ove over flow of warm and moist air, as they move over these warm waters, creating a low—pressure centre. if
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conditions arejust creating a low—pressure centre. if conditions are just right, it tropical storm is born, which can then strengthen into a full—blown hurricane. this year, there has been a particularly strong west african monsoon, meaning bigger and a particularly strong west african monsoon, meaning biggerand more frequent storms in the hurricane development zone. several specific conditions are needed for hurricane formation. averages need to be higher than 26 celsius to provide the fuel for these big storms. this year, waters across the western atla ntic year, waters across the western atlantic and the caribbean had often been— the time of year. also, we need a lack of wind shear. when she is when winds that don't very much in speed and direction, but at height... but lower wind shear allows a storm to rise vertically. also, el nino has been stuck in a neutral phase. the sun has to be a
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sufficient distance away form the equator for the fact to quit kicking to provide the spin. all of these conditions have often come together doing this year's hurricane season, producing several hurricanes of more than six miles high, and hundreds of miles wide. earlier, we had how harvey set new records for rainfall. the next hurricane, irma, was also to ta ke the next hurricane, irma, was also to take its place in the record books for power and intensity, and thomas experienced it. hurricane irma, bearing down on the caribbean in early september as a maximum category five and storm with winds of 185 mph. the strongest hurricane ever recorded this far east in the athletic. this is what it sounded like as irma moved across the
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northern islands. this, is what a category five hurricane leaves behind. the islands of barbuda, from caribbean paradise to ruins. it's just gone. what you do now? i don't know, i'm just waiting to get evacuated from here, and then i'm going to come back, and try and salvage something and help, i don't know. my whole life is here, so... it wasn't just barbuda. know. my whole life is here, so... it wasn'tjust barbuda. irma caused extensive damage here in the british virgin islands, plus at saint martin, said bat, anguilla, and the turks and caicos islands. after briefly weakening, irma was back to category five strength with winds of 160 mph. as it made landfall in cuba, creeping along the island's
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northern shore, for most two days. as irma was hitting cuba, i was in the united states, which was waiting for its second major hurricane in as many weeks, and this time, the target was florida. hurricane is battering cuba, around 300 miles to the south of us, and even here, you can feel the power of the storm, that's how big it is. irma's florida la ndfall that's how big it is. irma's florida landfall was in the cut keys, causing major damage as a category four storm, with winds of over 130 mph. as irma moved north, this was the scene in naples. it's got really intense now. and then, irma met my location in tampa. it had weakened
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slightly, but it was still a category two storm, and i wanted to see to experience the condition is outside. della mac you can talk about wind speed, you can talk about pressure, but it's a completely different thing to experience a hurricane first—hand. different thing to experience a hurricane first-hand. it must be devastating for people, caught in the storm. more than 120 people are known to have died as a result of irma, including at least 80 in the united states. but as the clean—up gun, it was not long before the caribbean was in the firing line again, but how do you knowjust how strong these hurricane is like a are, before they hit land. here is nick again. commercial aircraft steer around hurricanes, but not the hurricane hunters, including views of the us air force reserve. their
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mission is to fly when no one else does, this time right into the heart of hurricane irma. the more times we passed through the eyeball, the better they can calibrate exacting where the storm is moving. it's not pretty, but everybody get changed to do had to kick in all at once, because the plane is falling and you arejust because the plane is falling and you are just holding because the plane is falling and you arejust holding on because the plane is falling and you are just holding on looking for good air. we are back now at the bbc weather centre, and i'm joined by professor mark saunders. mark is a climate prediction scientist. he is involved in predicting hurricanes and tropical cyclones right around the world. so, thank you forjoining us. just expect to me, how do we even begin to predict a hurricane season? we use computer models. between august and september, two of the key environmental fields are how warm or cold the tropical atlantique
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sea temperatures are in august and september, and how strong the winds are blowing across outstanding from west africa to the caribbean, and if west africa to the caribbean, and if we can pick those perfectly, then you can generally get a very good understanding of how active or quiet the hurricane season will be. 2070 has been a particular actors hurricane season. today forecasters get it right and if not what went wrong? they got it right to a large degree, and most forecasts predicted to be above normal hurricane season, but not the actual hyperactive levels that were not anticipated. we think one of the factors that contributed that miss forecast was the current imac sudden cooling of the current imac sudden cooling of the waters in the tropical called el nino. waters called by a big degree by august, that's quite unusual and
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contributed to a more stable atmosphere conditions over the tropical atlantic, which enables storms to build up and become strong, and also happen more often. thank you forjoining us. and coming up, from the hurricane front line, i will be giving my experiences of reporting joined the storm. and, what's caribbean caves can tell us about hurricanes of the past and future. so far in this weather world special we have been constituting an hurricane irma. but it was not the only tropical cyclone with the deadly impact. it too would reach category five strength and head for the caribbean. nick has the story of hurricane maria. here we go again, september, and let in at the hurricane rapidly intensifies. this is quite a leap hit by wind and rain. a months worth injust a day. but by the time maria's i had
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passed, of orderly, dominique taken a hit. this unverified video was made as the lights went off. after the hurricane, the fall horror of what happened here was revealed. these were the strongest winds on record to have hit his islands, and at least 30 people were killed. when maria made landfall in puerto rico, it was a category for hurricane, and be stronger here since 1920s. as ever, it is notjust the winds that has the damage, it is the author to, and both from flooding rain and storm surge causing catastrophic flooding. all of the elements combines to leave the entire island without power, admit fears of a high manager terry in crisis. period then came close to the dominican republic, before turning north away from the usa. —— utilitarian crisis.
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in october, another storm followed maria. severe flooding damaged thousands of homes. nate was blamed for the deaths of at least 25 people, including nicaragua, but in costa rica and honduras two. —— two. next in the site, was the usa. strengthening, it began dumber became the fastest moving hurricane ever recorded northern mexico. it hit mississippi as a category one storm, but at least, impact in the usa were not as serious as has been feared. we know a lot about hurricanes in the era of modern weather technology. but what about the hurricanes that came before that, well doctors james and lisa from durham university running a project in the caribbean to answer that question. i give a joining me. it involves being to caves. yes, it
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does. caves are the most obvious place to look, but in fact they are full of really interesting deposits called stalagmite and salad tights. what we aim to do in this project is to reconstruct long—term records of hurricane impact, and... you've got a stalagmite here, what does that tell you. big rock from the ground of the cave, and they are deposited as the judge ordered drips onto the ground. that strip water has a chemical signature that reflects the rainfall at the time it was going, hurricanes have a really unique chemical signature, because the water actually evaporates from the ocean was mac servers, and it is drawn up early high up in sky, and thatis drawn up early high up in sky, and that is where temperatures are lower, and it impacts the chemical signature of that rainfall, so we
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can look at the chemistry, going through a time, and we can pick out years when there were more hurricanes, and your years when there were fewer hurricanes. so give there were fewer hurricanes. so give the michigan line, depends on how alljust the michigan line, depends on how all just outlets are? the michigan line, depends on how alljust outlets are? yes that's right. the record we had to about is back to 1550a. d. right. the record we had to about is back to 1550a.d. at about 450 years long. but stalagmite can grow for a very long amount of time. we can date them 6000 years ago. it is likely we will be able to extend that record. that will give us the information that we will need to assess what is happening now.|j information that we will need to assess what is happening now. i am fascinated to learn what you have learned so far, and the indications the future, but will look at that, for now, thank you. from side success to an infamous... earlier on
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today, a woman on the bbc had that there was a hurricane on the way. if you are watching, don't worry, there isn't. michael fish's ill—fated reassurance. . . isn't. michael fish's ill—fated reassurance... kennedy not a hurricane, but a area of low— pressure hurricane, but a area of low—pressure that felled 15 million trees. the storm's wind gust of 115 mph was recorded in west sussex. sustained winds that strong would rank asa sustained winds that strong would rank as a category three major hurricane, but just how rank as a category three major hurricane, butjust how i'll hurricane, butjust how i'll hurricane wind speed ranked? here is sarah. we often talk about the strength of hurricanes in terms of their categories. atlantique hurricanes measured on the saffir—simpson scale. the skill provides examples of the type of damage and the impacts associated
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with given wind speeds. category one, winds are between 74 and 95 mph, and can cause some damage to roofs and gutters and the doctors more trees. category two, winds between 96 to 110 mph. they can cause more extent of damage and power failures. category three, storm becomes a major hurricane, with winds between 111 and 129 mph, and can lead to devastating damage to buildings. category for 132 156 mph, and after caused catastrophic damage to roofs and exterior walls and power cuts that can last for months. category five hurricane ‘s, winds in excess of 157 mph. this can cause catastrophic damage and ties homes and buildings. affected areas will become uninhabitable. destructive winds and torrential
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rain, this looks like a hurricane, in fact, it's a typhoon. slamming into china's coast in august. the reason for the similarities that hurricanes and typhoons are the same in anything but name. earlier on in the programme we work to do a fascinating research project a place in the harrods, caribbean. this was true caves through the use of stalagmite. we have not yet revealed what you have found out through the study of what is happening with the stalagmites. what have you discovered? what we have seen is a peak in tropical psychoactive to, affecting our site and around 1000 60050a.d. this is in belize. we see this peak in activity affecting our
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site around 1650 a:d.. now, 1650 was remarkable, because it was the peak of what is known of the little ice age that affected the northern hemisphere. after that, the northern hemisphere temperatures were warming, but we see a degrades in tropical cyclone over time. it is important to emphasise that there is a lot of randomness with how hurricanes go. any given year, hurricanes go. any given year, hurricane can either steer out into the atlantique, or hit central america. there is a lot of randomness about where they go. the average track through time, through our research, is north. u nfortu nately, our research, is north. unfortunately, what this means is that hurricanes can still strike in the atlantique basin, but in average, the north—east coast in north america can expect in increase in the number of hurricane. thinking
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along the lines of hurricane sandy. it's good becoming using a normal over the next few decades. is there something in this that may make the butt in europe sit up and take notice? we see that the track is moving northward through time, this also means that there could be an increase in the frequency of storms in the north atlantic, and also potentially impacting europe. in the north atlantic, and also potentially impacting europem this an ominous sign for europe, and other major hurricane, but this one further east in the atlantic than ever seen before? hurricane ophelia first started in spain, killing more than 40 people. then, as it sped north, it remains a powerful storm. ireland brought the brunt —— bore the brunt, with three people being
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killed. elsewhere in the uk, dust from the sahara carried along by ophelia, gave the sun and unusual red glow. hurricane is rightly leads to mass public titrations, and one of the biggest in american history trip is ahead of an. butjust as most is the boar are leaving, but whether reporters go to the storm, getting as close as this if you can, to tell the for the story. aside in florida, but it requires is national tea m florida, but it requires is national team and technological effort. this is where i was doing this height of the storm in downtown tampa. see that road there, this is where the winds were roaring down at hurricane force. i was standing in the middle of that road. hurricane holds the record for managing to sustain category five longer than any other hurricane in recorded history. to
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the viewer, it might seem like i was the viewer, it might seem like i was the only one there, but of course, i had my cameraman, john, my producer, three of us at any middle about street. i lost everything in my home. what can be destroyed in a matter of hours can take weeks, months and maybe years to repair. here in puerto rico, just as many have caribbean islands, the damage was extensive. any british virgin islands. they were delivering desperately needed aid. here in the turks and caicos islands, the story is the same, hurricane, go, but the effect that they have on millions of lives goes on long after the storm has passed. and that is it for this special edition of weather world, with nick and sarah in the bbc
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weather centre in london, and from me here, until then, weather centre in london, and from me here, untilthen, keep weather centre in london, and from me here, until then, keep checking the weather. certainly across the republic of ireland, will season very strong winds. round the coast, on saturday, particularly saturday morning, we will see gusts of wind, maybe 60 mph, at stops maybe 70 miles an hour and a few experts in part, couple that with spring tides, that when tides a particular high, that strong wind could be a cause was a minor coastal flooding, , wind could be a cause was a minor coastal flooding,, a wind could be a cause was a minor coastalflooding,, a good start wind could be a cause was a minor coastal flooding,, a good start to eastern england and scotland. 12 showers in the afternoon. showers are more frequent and could merge into longer spells of rain in the west. it is the ever west england, and temperatures will be on the
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slide, it's good to feel a bit cooler anyway given the strength of the wind. the wind was only use down. still a bloodstream night, storm brian will push out into the north sea. that will drag the winds in from the north—west. that will mean western scotland, western england, north—west wales will season frequent showers. but the buzz of rain in the morning. some dry and brittle whether developing in the afternoon, particularly as this out and the use, and the winds will use down, but it will feel rather cool, and the showers will be with you, outbreaks of rain nine or 10 degrees in the hills or the north—west of the country, and at best around 1516... sunday night, they go, what is left of this storm brian, pushing in whether france, pushing erratically eastwards across the country on monday, but the brightest in eastern areas, brightening up in the west later on. staying cloudy for northern
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scotland. then we'll see something heavier work across the country, through the night and across the tuesday morning. then we will see the weather front trailing across the weather front trailing across the south. southern areas to start next week, always very cloudy. half—time for many, but not a brilliance that. patchy rain coming or going. after some heavy overnight rain further north, will see things brightening up. east of the pennines, and ease of the scotland, dry and bright weather that will continue into wednesday. let's not forget the weather front across the south, much try and much brighter further north. best of sunshine eastern scotland and north—east england. whenever too far away from warmer air, not a particularly cold week to come, and the weather front will go northwards. low pressure there, but the weather fronts coming m, there, but the weather fronts coming in, high pressure building towards
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the south—east, and that will continue to field feeding reasonably mild air. it is not go into bb dixie cold, later on in the week, the north and west will tell better, but after a dark and cloudy start to next week, later in the week in the south and east town dryer, brighter and a little bit warmer. we'll keep you updated. bye for now. some progress on brexit, as eu leaders agree to begin preparations for talks about future trade. despite the smiles in brussels, the prime minister is told not enough progress has been made on other matters to allow formal talks on trade to begin. i am ambitious and positive for britain's future, and about these negotiations but i know we still have some way to go. while progress is not sufficient, it doesn't mean that there's no progress at all. a major sticking point remains money — how many billions the uk is prepared to pay for the so—called divorce bill. also tonight:
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a police inquiry has been launched into the way rbs treated its small
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