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tv   HAR Dtalk  BBC News  November 21, 2017 12:30am-1:01am GMT

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united states president, donald trump, has put north korea back on the list of state—sponsors of terrorism. mr trump said putting north korea back on the list would trigger further large sanctions. the us secretary of state says he still hopes for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. as robert mugabe's party prepares to start impeachment proceedings against him, zimbabwe's military says there has been encouraging contact between mugabe and his former vice—president. argentina says its missing submarine which has 44 crew on board had reported a mechanical breakdown. the vessel disappeared last wednesday. a navy spokesman says sounds picked up by two search vessels earlier did not come from the submarine. they had been detected on the route it would have taken. you are up—to—date. there is more to come on bbc news. you are watching bbc news. now it is time for hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk. i am stephen
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sackur. after 37 years in power, it is perhaps not surprising that robert mugabe cannot accept zimbabwe's robert mugabe cannot accept zimba bwe‘s new reality. robert mugabe cannot accept zimbabwe's new reality. but no amount of playing for time will save his presidency now. the robert mugabe era is over. the question is what comes next. will it be a continuation of the oppressive rule of zanu pf? orwill the continuation of the oppressive rule of zanu pf? or will the politics of the country open up in new and unpredictable ways? my guest is ibbo mandaza, a former government official turned academic analyst. will zimbabwe's official turned academic analyst. will zimba bwe‘s current drama official turned academic analyst. will zimbabwe's current drama and well? —— end well? ibbo mandaza,
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welcome to hardtalk. thank you. i just refer to this compelling drama playing out in harare. you have obviously just come from playing out in harare. you have obviouslyjust come from harare in the last few hours to talk to me. can there are only be one ending, that robert mugabe will be gone within days? i don't know about days, but certainly it is the end for him. except now we have a serious stand—off between him and his party. is it a serious stand—off? his party. is it a serious stand-off? i think it is. it is his party. is it a serious stand-off? ithink it is. it is a constitutional crisis. it appears to me that robert mugabe seems to have the upper hand on the once
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additional and legal side. it is quite obvious he has some of the best legal minds around him. clearly, his speech last night had very cogent arguments, not to mention the fact that from the outset, the military insisted that it was not a coup, although it is a coup in my view. they also insists he is the head of state and the commander—in—chief. he is the head of state and the commander-in-chief. yes. it is very ha rd to commander-in-chief. yes. it is very hard to figure out precisely the relationship between the senior military command and robert mugabe. there they all were in that bizarre shot of the military chief sitting next to robert lagarde they as he may be address to the nation. sceptics think that perhaps this is all being orchestrated and that army command is quite happy for robert mugabe to go through the impeachment
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process , mugabe to go through the impeachment process, because it legitimises the removal, it puts a veil of constitutionality of the whole thing. do you think that is true?|j think thing. do you think that is true?” think so. but also, it appears to me events leading to the coup were sparked by fear by the generals that they would be charged with treason. and so it appears to me the first act was to pre—empt the heads of state doing what he intended to do. it appears to me they did not have a clear plan as to the outcome of the intervention. they thought it would bea intervention. they thought it would be a few days and robert mugabe would resign. he surprised them clearly. they don't no what to do now. let's talk about the potential for destabilisation, for undress, for destabilisation, for undress, for violence. —— unrest.
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for destabilisation, for undress, forviolence. —— unrest. some for destabilisation, for undress, for violence. —— unrest. some people are saying this is a fragile moment for zimbabwe. it is hard to see where the violence would come from, because the only person it seems you with really determined to defend robert mugabe's rights and interests is robert mugabe himself. he does not seem to have any street presence supporting his claim to stay in the job. there are various constraining factors for the military, but you are right there is a danger we could have rogue elements within the military, within the whole veteran association, who would want to push, association, who would want to push, as appears to be the case, robert mugabe to resign, and if need be, even attack is person, break into his "blue roof" so called, it could escalate. let me talk about what
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chris is saying, the head of the vetera ns' chris is saying, the head of the veterans' association. chris is saying, the head of the vetera ns' association. this chris is saying, the head of the veterans' association. this is a few hours ago. we will organise a sitting and we will not leave harare until robert mugabe is gone. would you worry if there is a sit—in around the so—called blue roof, his residence? as far as the events on saturday, the army did not allow the crowd near the area, let alone the blue roof. it is clear the military are in charge of the whole process so are in charge of the whole process so far, including the rally itself, including directing and organising it. the military will want to play it. the military will want to play it constitutionally, legally, safe, as far as possible, except if the stand—off is extended, as is
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appearing to be the case, then they may resort to other means. they want him to resign and he is refusing. you have more experience inside the government as one of the top civil servant for you went into academia and political commentary. i just wonder, when we are talking about the constitution and the impeachment process , the constitution and the impeachment process, just how important and how durable and resilient is the zimbabwean constitution, because the issueis zimbabwean constitution, because the issue is that he has ridden roughshod over it for many years. is a part of the political process to stick to the constitution? yes, except where it is done so expediently and conveniently. in general, there is a very high disdainful constitutionalism, even in the party itself. you can see it
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is very messy and tidy a process. right now, the committee met yesterday and voted to get robert mugabe and everyone else out. and his speech last night wanted to render that all illegal, saying he is ill in power. —— still. you have a situation where the interpretation of the constitution is left to expedient subscription thereof.” ask you at the beginning of there was any doubt about the outcome and i was thinking about robert mugabe's removal and you indicated it could ta ke removal and you indicated it could take longer than you think. but robert mugabe is ultimately going to have to go. is there any doubt in your mind that the successor will be the vice president briefly deposed but now back, emmerson? is that
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going to be the outcome he will succeed? if the coup succeeds, yes, he will be in. if the coup and says they intend it to end with robert mugabe leaving, it will have been successful. if, as appears to be happening, there is a resort to constitutional arguments and, more importantly, the intervention of south africans, it appears that they may find a solution, such as the governor of national unity, our group the platform for consensus have been saying since last year when we saw this happening, a national transitional authority, a non—partisan authority of
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zimbabweans who would take charge of the state for two years during which time they would be political reform. but of course, that is a hard sell from the very beginning because you have contending factors, both within zanu pf itself in the larger polity. your message is that emmerson taking over would be bad for zimbabwe? yes. that one faction in a factional fight would be seen to be taking over will be seen as a coup. as far asiam over will be seen as a coup. as far as i am concerned, the solution is to transcend the zanu pf faction, to find someone within zanu pf itself who was above the factions, and it is difficult to find such a person, ora is difficult to find such a person, or a neutral factor altogether, leading a transitional authority and transitional government. but ibbo mandaza, are you not part of the
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issue? you were once a loyalist of the maduru faction. you have had a sta ke the maduru faction. you have had a stake in this yourself. that is why he dislikes you, he sees you as someone who has always favoured his opponent. well, i had a family relationship with the madurus, both in the late husband and herself. and, yes, ifelt as in the late husband and herself. and, yes, i felt as a zimbabwean citizen that we were shortchanged in 2014 when these purges began. she was elected in 2004. she was a vice president in every sense of the word. and in 2014, the vice president and others were rejected. but my point is not so much about joyce and what happened to her, we
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interviewed her on this programme and frankly she does not amount to much support these days. it is your message about factionalism. it is interesting to see how anybody in zimbabwe today could have any hope that factionalism won't continue. it will be a dominant force. emmerson and the head of the military are clearly people who want to keep our closely in the hands of those, you know, one could perhaps say old cronies of robert mugabe are going all the way back in zanu pf. it is ha rd to all the way back in zanu pf. it is hard to see how that will not happen. is you're looking for a solution mediate that difference, thatis solution mediate that difference, that is where some of us come in as citizens. —— if. in retrospect, in hindsight, it is clear, as you are correct, in your characterisation,
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that the military has always been central right from the ceasefire in 1980 with maduru and on and on. it is true the military has been central. some of us as analysts have been confused and lost the plot thinking he took control of the military. clearly he did not. this is becoming self—evident. military. clearly he did not. this is becoming self-evident. let me quote you. it is interesting what you are saying. the top branch of the military have been extremely influential. let's not forget that emmerson going way back was minister of state security and ran the intelligence operations as part of his ministerial duties. he campaigned. he has a long record. and this is what one western
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diplomat said, if he takes over, this is farfrom being a brave new dawn for zimbabwe it. he is cut from the same cloth as mugabe. would you agree with that? clearly, yes. his base at the moment is the military. he is the most powerful person at the moment. and really, it appears to be that the military wanted a civilian face. and he has been chosen. it is difficult to make a distinction between the mugabe regime and the era he had and emmerson and the military. they are one and the same. this is a factionalfight within one and the same. this is a factional fight within zanu pf itself. which party is completed with the state, really. going back to instability, i want to quote to you one other person who has been out on the streets, linda, she is an
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activist, founder of the zimbabwean women in politics, she said she has waited all her life for mugabe to stand down, but now she is worried about what happens next. the military is stepping in to resolve the factionalfight military is stepping in to resolve the factional fight and it has nothing to do with reforming the country. you seem to be echoing that very bleak sentiment. s with those sentiments. i agree entirely. but we have to be realistic, we have to be political and take into account the reality and take into account the reality and see how we can work out of it to and see how we can work out of it to a more positive scenario. to be specific, what are you going to do? well, it is not me. what i will do, it isa well, it is not me. what i will do, it is a question of, asked trying to —— asked trying to leverage on the
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process , —— asked trying to leverage on the process, on the intervention, and the need to mediate... you keep talking about sadac, we know the south african government has taken a mild position, asking everybody to please focus on following the zimbabwean con situation. i can quote you the president of zambia, edgar lungu, who has actually said that in his view, the military ta keover that in his view, the military takeover reflects intervention and meddling by western countries. he says westerners are trying to spearhead regime change, notjust in zimbabwe, but in zambia, south africa and malawi as well, and we won't let it happen. so i'm not sure that african neighbours are of a mind to push the reform agenda. it doesn't sound as though they are. some of them sound like they are quite tempted to defend mugabe. precisely. i think basically, a successful cooing zimbabwe would send the wrong message across the region. —— coup in. the differences
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between the regimes in the region are those of degree, rather than kind. you are talking about sadc, sadc is normally lame but i think sadc is normally lame but i think sadc has never been faced except for lzutu with a similar situation to this. it will be interesting to see what sadc does tomorrow. i agree this will be based on self—interest in parts of sadc and the south african state, rather than any concentration such as that which linda was referring to. what about the international community more widely? i am the international community more widely? iam intrigued by the the international community more widely? i am intrigued by the notion which i have read in some quarters which i have read in some quarters which says that actually, the key player in this is not any western country, the united states anybody else. it is china. there is talk of a key meeting involving mr mnangagwa and mr chiwenga, the head of the military, actually in beijing. and that the chinese signed off on the move against mugabe because china of course has vast economic interest in
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zimbabwe. is china a big player, do you think? yes, but i also know china as one who tries not to interfere in internal politics, exceptin interfere in internal politics, except in its own neighbourhood. so i think that is mere speculation. there is no evidence to that effect. nor is there evidence that western countries have been directly involved. there has always been speculation, of course, unconfirmed, that emmerson mnangagwa and in this case, this military coup, would have the support of the british or the dish intelligence services. again, thatis dish intelligence services. again, that is speculation. so what's next, in your view? i imagine when we stop talking you will be going very soon back home to harare, and you are somebody who constantly speaks out forfundamental somebody who constantly speaks out for fundamental transformation in zimbabwe, getting away from what you call the factionalism, opening up of six, bringing in a new generation,
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making the country more genuinely free and democratic. —— opening up politics. how on earth, given the nature of our conversation, do you believe you can play a role in that happening? well, i am gratefulthat you give us the opportunity of this important interview with a very influential programme like hardtalk... influential programme like hardtalk. .. well, that is very flattering, but nonetheless, it is just words. long after you leave the studio you have to go home and figure out how to change the situation on the ground. yes, i cannot do it alone. we're working many other people. i made reference to the pcc, the platform for concerned citizens. we have submitted a public document to be sadc secretariat and to be troika. we did that through the south african government this afternoon. so there are many efforts at home. there is representation by the churches. there is a prominent clergyman who has been involved in
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the negotiations between mugabe's residence and the military had offers. so there is a lot of stuff happening on the ground but we're hoping that the sadc intervention, but also the international community, i know that the western met yesterday to discuss the zimbabwe situation, and i also know that they are recommending a government of national humidity. —— western ambassadors met yesterday. which involves everybody, the other political parties as well. i think they were all shocked yesterday with they were all shocked yesterday with the statements which suggested that this was an internal issue of zanu-pf. i think the this was an internal issue of zanu—pf. i think the solution is to have them transcend the zanu—pf factionalism and have a national dialogue and national process which includes everybody, at least as a transitional authority, towards elections one or two years hence. that is interesting. yet a signal
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failure of you to mention mr changi wright and the movement for democratic change, what has long been the leading opposition party, suggests to me that you do not really feel they could be serious agents of change. —— mr tsvangirai. maybe i am misleading you. do you think mrtsvangirai maybe i am misleading you. do you think mr tsvangirai has an important role to play? on the contrary, i think all parties must be involved, including morgan tsvangirai. you cannot ignore morgan tsvangirai in any process in zimbabwe, not least because he was shortchanged in 2008. it is common knowledge now that morgan tsvangirai won the election in 2008. and it was this time mr mnangagwa and general chiwenga who took over, and one would say it was a coup actually, in 2008, in the form of the manipulation of the results, the subsequent run—off, and how mr mugabe stayed in power. so morgan tsvangirai can not be
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ignored, not at all, either as a person or in terms of his party. we have talked really politics in this interview. let's end by thinking about something else, just as. do you think there is any possibility that robert mugabe and people very close to him might be brought to face justice for close to him might be brought to facejustice for some of close to him might be brought to face justice for some of the things that happens under his command? his rule of zimbabwe? i am thinking in particular of the mass killings that we know happens in the early 1980s. is justice part of this, or not? well, one would hope for some kind of truth and reconciliation such as we have in south africa. but if it we re we have in south africa. but if it were to be revenge, that would escalate things out of hand. the human rights factor must be taken into account. yes, mugabe, and those persons, mnangagwa and chiwenga have
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much to answer for, for the violence over the last 30 years, and to periods which were punctuated by violence, not only them, but there massacre of the earlier era which remained save them a shot at history. but also subsequent killings at election time. in 2008 some 200 people perished. yes, there will need to be a taking account of all that, and one might even suggest we need to go back to be beginning of the struggle, where there were many killings among ourselves, as zimbabweans. i think a truth and reconciliation commission is something that might help to close the chapter on this sordid history of hours. a final thought, before we end. i was very struck by the joyous scenes, frankly, which i saw from harare and the mass demonstrations, the people out on the streets on saturday at the weekend in your
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capital city. are you feeling full of optimism, positivity, and maybe even somejoy at of optimism, positivity, and maybe even some joy at the thought of robert mugabe's" right now? or are you actually feeling somewhat alarmed and curvaceous about the future of your country? —— alarmed and trepidation as —— trepidatious. they did so through the four days. prior to that the military were acting on their own. there was not the conventional mass reception of the conventional mass reception of the coup which you have seen in other parts of africa. i think people are beginning to sober up and realise there is something at the heart of this which has to do with the manner in which the system has been run for the last two decades at least. ibbo mandaza, it is a sobering thought to end on. thank you forjoining me on hardtalk from johannesburg. thank you very much,
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stephen. hello. for many it was a very mild start to the new week. 16.6 was the high, well above average for this time of year. we stay in the mild air for tuesday and for much of the week. i'm sure you've noticed an area of low pressure and a frontal system, which means rain. at eight o'clock in the morning, that rain is draped across scotland and likely to keep falling here through much of the day, just clear of northern ireland. rain returning here later in the morning. it could be a tricky rush hour, particularly through the central belt, heavy and persistent rain. not as cold as it has been, milder air nudging north. that rain will be just about clear of northern england,
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but certainly down underfoot, with mist and murk and low cloud. in much of england and wales, lots of cloud, but aside from the odd patch of drizzle it will be mainly dry and mild. temperatures around 11 or 12. through england and wales, through the day, that cloud will try to thin and break, especially to the lee of high ground. so there could be a bit of brightness. the rain keeps falling over scotland and later in the day we see another spell of rain in northern england, and northern wales. to the south and east of that, mainly dry. the best of any brightness will be here. mild, with high temperatures of around 14 or 13 celsius. still quite cool in scotland. in the evening, more rain to come through scotland, slowly pulling away, then a different spell of rain pushing east across england and wales and becoming more persistent across north—west england and north wales as we head through the early hours of wednesday morning. the winds will be strengthening as well, likely to touch gale force along the western and southern coasts. a mild night as we go into wednesday. a much windier day. chance of gales in some places. persistent rain across northern
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parts of wales, northern ireland, and perhaps stretching up to southern parts of scotland. to the south and east of this, mainly dry, with the best of any brightness. we could well see 15 celsius, butjust 8 in the far north of scotland. lots of isobars through wednesday night and into thursday. strong winds. this front will sweep these, but that will bring heavy rain for a time. how quickly it clears from the south—east of england is a bit open to doubt at the moment. behind it we start to lose some of the milder air and something colderjust starting to dig back in. a sign of things to come by the weekend. on thursday we could see some snow once again over the mountains of scotland. some rain across northern england. further south, it should be mainly dry, with some sunshine. but eventually some rain pushing back in later. still mild here, 12—14 celsius the high. much colder further north. i'm rico hizon in singapore.
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the headlines... president trump declares north korea a state sponsor of terrorism — and promises more sanctions. president mugabe's own party decides to impeach him — saying he let his wife usurp power in zimbabwe. i'm babita sharma in london. also in the programme: a new report from amnesty international is expected to accuse the myanmar military of crimes against humanity in rakhine state. more than two years after nepal's devastating earthquake, the un ways temple restoration work is just not good enough.
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