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tv   Outside Source  BBC News  December 4, 2017 9:00pm-10:01pm GMT

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welcome to outside source. a wig and a half ago the european union it said today was a deadline for the uk to suggest the lilley —— a week and a half ago today the european union said today was a deadline for the uk to reach progress with brexit talks. but then today we have this. sufficient progress was not made. there are differences which require further consultation and negotiation. it looks like getting a deal done, with northern ireland effectively remaining within the customs union but that was scuppered by theresa may's parliamentary partners from northern ireland. northern ireland must leave the european union on the same terms as the rest of the uk. this is likely to add pressure to theresa may from within her own party, and we will be to westminster to discuss that. we will spend the whole of this edition concentrating on the many aspects is the brexit story, and if you are
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confused by it, you are not the only one. “— confused by it, you are not the only one. —— many aspects of the brexit story. we will be joined by chris morris from the bbc‘s reality check. get in touch with us through twitter and e—mail. we will spend the whole hour of outside source looking at the issue of brexit, send in questions on any pa rt of brexit, send in questions on any part of it. these brexit talks come in two phases, the first one is all about the nature of the uk's departure and the second is all about the nature of the uk's future relationship with the eu, and for the second phase to start there needs to be sufficient progress in the first phase and we thought we might hear about that today, this is
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theresa may and jean—claude juncker, they met earlier we thought they might emerge to say they had reached that point. we were wondering, could they make enough progress on citizens rights and the divorce bill and the irish border and the answer was no. i'm still confident that we can reach sufficient progress before the european council on the 15th of december, this is not a failure, this is the start of the very last pa rt this is the start of the very last part and this is the start of the very last partand i'm this is the start of the very last part and i'm very confident. we have had a constructive meeting today, both sides have been working hard in good faith, we have been negotiating ha rd good faith, we have been negotiating hard and progress has been made, on many of the issues there is a common understanding, but it is clear crucially that we want to move forward together, but on a couple of issues some differences remain which require further negotiation and
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consultation. and those will continue but we will reconvene before the end of the week and i'm also confident that we will conclude this positively. our europe editor said before these talks, that ireland remains the toughest issue and she was proved completely right. the crux of the issue is the border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland, the only land border with the eu with the uk. there was a draft eu on this issue, it would have meant northern ireland remaining in the eu's customs union and single market, while the rest of the uk would leave those two, that was the plan, but he did not last long. remember this? —— was the plan, but he did not last long. rememberthis? —— but it did not last long. the prime minister had to cut a deal after the last
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election with arlene foster the leader of the dup, in northern ireland. this was arlene foster's statement. we were not accept any form of regulatory diverges which separates northern ireland economically or politically from the rest of the uk. and because of theresa may's reliance on the dup diack legislation to the house of commons, when they dig in, she needs to listen. and this is how it panned out. all of which left the irish leader little bit amused. he gave this statement. following the meeting this morning at the irish negotiating team received confirmation from the british government and the michel barnier task force that the uk had agreed a text on the border that met our concerns but this text would form
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pa rt concerns but this text would form part of the broader eu uk agreement on the first phase and would allow us on the first phase and would allow us to move on to the second phase. i was contacted by the president of the european commission jean—claude juncker and the president of the european council donald tusk night confirmed to them both the irish agreement that text of. —— to that text. i'm surprised and disappointed that the british government appears to not be in a position to conclude what was agreed earlier today. christian fraser has been digestive all of this. the objective this week is to find a form of words that both sides can agree, and what has happened, the british government spent a lot of time speaking to the irish government to make sure that they are happy with the form of words and maybe they did not talk enough to the dup and the other issueis enough to the dup and the other issue is that the european side, having got agreement with dublin,
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did lots of briefing, saying we are positive, lots of positive optimism, but there was no counter briefing on the opposite side, so the media beat it up only to be left disappointed at the end. with theresa may looking as if she had egg on herface, but i'm not sure that she would not have known the concerns of the dup. maybe the dup talked about it to the cause of the morning and they could not sell it to their constituents —— the course. arlene foster came out with a firm statement that she was not going to accept it. one last thing, when it comes to politics in northern ireland, she has to look tough, so maybe this is part of the sequencing. that also applies to european politics in brussels, as well. there are three issues there, citizens rights and the divorce bill as well, have those two been mentioned as much? yes, they have.
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about a week ago, we would have said the financial settlement was the sticking point, but we now know a formula has be arrived at, and that seems to have been put to bed. the european parliament had a meeting ahead of theresa may this morning and they are still not happy with some issues, like the role of the european court of human justice, thatis european court of human justice, that is a red line for some of the brexiteers in the uk, some of them said that was a red line for them and they don't like the fact that the ec] would be consulted through the ec] would be consulted through the transition and they don't want that have any role when the uk has left the eu. but right now, it is theissue left the eu. but right now, it is the issue of ireland, can they find
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a formula that all sides are happy with before that meeting of 27 eu leaders in ten days' time? i've been speaking to paddy smith, the europe editorfor speaking to paddy smith, the europe editor for the speaking to paddy smith, the europe editorfor the irish speaking to paddy smith, the europe editor for the irish times. speaking to paddy smith, the europe editorfor the irish times. this is his take on the irish political dimension to this story. it was a surprise to everybody because most of us thought that the deal was done. the irish cabinet thought the deal was done, as well. the turnabout from theresa may, it appears to have been at the behest of arlene foster, and that was a shock. no one would expect her not to know what arlene foster's views we re to know what arlene foster's views were on the subject. given that arlene foster is saying the status of northern ireland when it comes to brexit needs to match the rest of the uk, how do you think we go from here in terms of finding something that works for her and the irish government? what is interesting, the
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position that the british government signed up to was much more subtle than she is giving them credit for, and it wasn't the same thing as being part of the customs union and the single market, it was talking about regulatory alignment apart from the eu, so the northern ireland regime would have been set up separately and it basically would have copied some of the laws but administered them themselves, so there was an element of independence in the proposals. it is arguable, the british can argue this is not creating a new regime in northern ireland apart from the rest of the uk, and it is actually handing powers to northern ireland executive which is in abeyance at the moment, u nfortu nately. which is in abeyance at the moment, unfortunately. brexit is applying
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extra ordinary pressure to british politics and the same could be said of irish politics, as well. yes, it isa of irish politics, as well. yes, it is a very serious salient in irish politics, and we have had a political crisis in ireland recently where it looked as if the government might have to throw in the towel and call an election but that has passed. there is a degree of agreement amongst political parties about the position that the government is taking on brexit. in these negotiations, and in particular the emphasis on the board and what has to be done on the border. in terms of arlene foster's approach from now on, she has scuppered today's deal, she was important, what does gmail seek to ta ke important, what does gmail seek to take from that place from theresa may? —— what does she now sick. take from that place from theresa may? -- what does she now sick. they will be frantic discussions between her and theresa may in the next 2a
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hours, by problem is, i don't see what other formula the british government could come up with to meet the concerns that ireland have and the rest of the european union. __ my and the rest of the european union. —— my problem is. 27 member states have been united around this particular position. i can't see what other position the british government could take and formulate in the next two days that will have the same result. it is a question of the same result. it is a question of the tories persuading the dup that it isn't worth the candle. sarah says, when is the mainstream media going to talk about the possibility that a brexit deal might not be possible at all. on the bbc, we have discussed this possibility many many times, the possibility of no deal, which all sides have said could come to pass but most have said they would rather you didn't. john is
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very critical of brexit and says, can we tearup very critical of brexit and says, can we tear up the article 50 letter. he says, if the uk wanted to change its mind, that it's possible, but there has been known sign from the uk government that that will happen. liam is asking what is the dup statement mean, well, it means they have a significant amount of leverage and that is because theresa may and the conservatives have an agreement with the dup and without that deal it would be almost impossible for the conservatives to get legislation through the house of commons and so the dup has a lot of sway which is why any plan for northern ireland and the irish border that theresa may proposes evidently is going to need the support of arlene foster and her collea g u es support of arlene foster and her colleagues in the dup. keep the questions coming. when it comes to brexit there's no doubt theresa may is under pressure notjust in brussels and notjust from her political opponents but also from
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within her own party. we will talk about the brexiteers who want her to do more. we will be live in westminster. there has been reaction to the suggestion that northern ireland might be able to leave the eu on different terms to the rest of the uk from the mehrabad london. —— from the mayor of london. what i've been arguing for some time now is for us to bea arguing for some time now is for us to be a member of the single market and for us to have membership of the customs union but also if there is to bea customs union but also if there is to be a cast iron guarantee feet eu citizens who contribute to our country —— for our eu citizens. the government has accepted the principle that if it is not the entire country being members of the customs union and the single market, pa rt customs union and the single market, part of the country can, and bearing in mind the importance to protecting tens of thousands ofjobs, the
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government should also said to london, membership of the single market and the customs union and the cast—iron guarantee, that the entire country has the same deal. if that is the case. we are alive in the lesion with outside source. asch live. the uk has failed to reach an agreement with the eu to move to the next stage of brexit negotiations. we are devoting the programme to brexit. bbc arabic is reporting the killing of the former president of yemen. he had been allied with the who it was the first president after it
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united in 1990. yemen's military had been loyal to him. it is not clear where they will shift their loyalties do now. in malta, eight people have been charged with the death of a journalist. an australian mp proposed to his partner during a same—sex marriage debate in parliament. you will be pleased to know that when he asked the question, the answer was yes. we have discussed the issue of the irish border and now we can get the divorce bill. this is the amount of money the uk will pay the eu to free itself of its ongoing financial commitments and liabilities. if you are watching last week we were reporting that the uk had indicated
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that it would make an offer of up to 50 billion euros, which is up on what the british foreign secretary has suggested would be paid. the sums i've seen that they are demanding from this country seem to be extortionate and to go whistle is an entirely appropriate expression. the figure was also dismissed by the brexit secretary david davis. all sorts of stories flying around in the papers this morning. it was nonsense, the story is completely wrong. chris morris, the reality check correspondent, it did not prove to be entirely inaccurate, that story, so where are we now? who would have thought, women get close to the endgame of sufficient progress that money might be the easy bit —— when we get close. it is
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easier to hide it, frankie, some of the money might not be paid out four yea rs the money might not be paid out four years and echoed stash —— frankly, some of the money might not be paid out for years or decades, and it will be hard for someone to come up with an exact figure. the irish border is harder to phage, and that is why the money at the moment, and we might come back to problems, haggling over technical details, but at the moment that it pays to be sorted. we talk about the financial commitments but less about the liabilities, can you explain why the uk has two by its way out of certain liabilities? there are two things, the money it has committed, for development projects, and also assets which the eu has and the uk says we should have a share of those. it probably won't get a share of assets when it comes to buildings
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because it is difficult to break off a bit of building and legally the buildings and many of the assets belong to the eu as a whole rather than individual member states, and there are also cash assets like fines on companies, and that an area where the uk says, we would like some of that cash back, and some of those tentacled details will be haggled over behind the scenes in the months to come —— technical details. we will come back to you shortly, chris, we have questions for you. citizens rights now in more detail, there are 3.2 million eu citizens in the uk, and around a million uk citizens living in the eu, and this issue is complex because on the british side concern about levels of immigration drive the brexit vote and on the eu side freedom of movement is the foundation of the single market. in october theresa may made proposals
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which she said helped both groups of people, she said their rights will not diverged over time, but there has been divergences of a different type if you ask michel barnier. he has claimed there is agreement on how the rights of eu citizens in the uk will be guaranteed. a reference to the european court ofjustice. just explain the role of the ecj at the moment in deciding the rights of these eu citizens here and how the uk imagines this working. these eu citizens here and how the uk imagines this workingm these eu citizens here and how the uk imagines this working. if you are a citizen of the european union, any european member state, on anything to do with european law, that issue ultimate place of recourse, when the uk leaves, eu says it's ultimate place of recourse, when the uk leaves, eu says its citizens who are living in this country should also have some form of recourse to the ecj, but brexit supporters here say that is one of the reasons why we left, to rid ourselves of the overview of the ecj, so that is a
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problem. again, this is something which is difficult to phage, legal jurisdictions are black—and—white, but many of these other areas are searching for the grey areas and jurisdictions don't have many grey areas. in terms of what might be a cce pta ble areas. in terms of what might be acceptable to both sides, i'll we talking about a third entity? —— are we. it is whether you could have indirect recourse to the ecj, you could have a legal agreement on citizens rights which is written directly into uk law so much more difficult to change, and then if there are elements of european law within that agreement british courts might have to pay some heed to the european court of justice, might have to pay some heed to the european court ofjustice, but how much heed, that is a tricky issue, and there are people within the european parliament who are very firm on this. the european parliament gets a vote on the final
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withdrawal agreement and they are determined that the rights that the citizens of other eu countries have now in the uk, but they should not lose after brexit. chris, thanks. we're looking at brexit from all of the different angles on outside source. and now the pressure on theresa may's government, it comes in many forms. the government only functions because of a deal between the conservative party and the dup in northern ireland, we have all you heard about the dup's displeasure about the proposed plan for the irish border and that plan would have allowed northern ireland to in effect stay in the eu's single market and customs union while the rest of the uk left, but unsurprisingly that immediately got a lot of attention in scotland, this is nicola sturgeon saying this. next, the welsh first minister
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ca rwyn next, the welsh first minister carwyn jones. both of them making the same point. yet more evidence of the pressure that brexit is applying to the uk's structure of devolved political power. these are live pictures coming from the house of commons. mps are debating the eu withdrawal bill. the issues on raising and many others are likely be coming up there, as well. —— i'm raising. chris mason is in westminster. i have a stack of questions, but before i get to those, what precisely are the mps debating at the moment? this is the giant piece of legislation that is working its way to the house of commons and then we'll go to the other chamber of the british parliament, the house of lords —— will. it allows what will effectively be the cutting and pasting of the big eu rule book of
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laws and regulations into uk law, so on the day the uk leaves the eu there isn't a gap where things are not counted for in law. it is a colossal piece of work that parliament is working on, taking up the entire bandwidth of the british parliament. not just in the entire bandwidth of the british parliament. notjust in terms of the mental energy that brexit is consuming at the moment, from the prime minister down, but also the legislative energy, very little else that the british government can do at the moment, given the vast challenge of delivering brexit. what is happening on the floor of the house of commons this evening is the latest illustration of that. don't go anywhere. there is pressure of a different kind coming from a pro—campaign group, pro—brexit group which has sent a letter to the prime minister asking that the eu agrees to certain demands before finalising that divorce bill and these include
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ending free movement of eu citizens and ending the rule of the european court ofjustice in the uk as soon as brexit happens. this is the conservative mp jacob as brexit happens. this is the conservative mpjacob rees mogg who is one of the signatories. it is very important that we don't hand over a great deal of money unless we have an agreement. the risk is we paid the money from the day we leave and that reduces our negotiating clout to get the trade deal finalised if it hasn't been done before the 29th of march 2019 and that seems an obvious point. we have seen pressure from the dup, but presumably within the conservative party the prime minister is walking a delicate line. incredibly delicate. if the last couple of minutes of our conversation has led you to conclude that whichever way the british prime minister looks there is potential trouble over compromises around brexit, then in
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essence you have understood what today announced it. it is incredibly difficult. the simple reality for theresa may is that she can't please eve ryo ne theresa may is that she can't please everyone all the time, she can't even please some people all of the time, the whole nature of the politics of delivering brexit is to encourage as many people to remain close to her argument as often as is possible and it is inevitable as she goes to the process that they will be some people all the time wanting to complain. is the dup getting all the money it was promised in the deal it made with the prime minister? it hasn't yet, but you can see the power they have got today. that was chris, answer your questions, and i will be back in a couple of minutes. —— answering. another winter storm moved into the
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western side of the united states at the end of last week and has continued its journey to the east, across central and northern parts of the us into the great lakes as we richmond amg say, gale force winds and heavy rain —— as we reach. across the west, it is looking fine after the weather system has moved through but it will be cold despite the sunshine, looking at a frosty start to the day on monday and tuesday for vancouver, seattle and portland. into the south—eastern asia, heavy rain in places, especially around the philippines. southern areas of thailand and indonesia and there could be the risk of flooding and landslides. keeping a close eye on this cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the bay of bengal, this could
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develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves north into the north east of india and southern bangladesh. the big story in the last few days over south asia is the severe cyclone in the arabian sea, causing problems in open waters to the marine transport fatalities, and this system is weakening considerably as it pushes into the north east of india, bringing heavy rain into mumbai as we head into tuesday and wednesday. things then come down, it looks like the sunshine will make a return to this pa rt sunshine will make a return to this part of the world. it is the dry season across the north of india but more storms in the south. into south east asia, very heavy rain across parts of north—west greece, into albania, as well, fields have been inundated with waters and the rivers have burst their banks. these intense and storms have been affecting this portion of europe but they will slowly eased down as the
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area of low pressure weakens and booziest, this mass of cloud has had snow “— booziest, this mass of cloud has had snow —— weakens and moves east. it will fizzle out through tuesday and wednesday, as high pressure becomes the dominant feature, but it stays quite windy, you will notice the tight isobars for the high pressure will keep things fine as we head into tuesday, slightly milder air pushing in off the atlantic, as the area of high pressure moves in, but it will turn very wet and windy and very mild on wednesday. away from the far north, another fairly benign day, variable cloud, some sunshine, and it will feel quite mild in the sunshine, but quite cool further north. much milder on wednesday. welcome back. it was the day that the eu set has a deadline for the uk to demonstrate sufficient progress in brecht negotiations. but they
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haven't quite got there. this is what we heard earlier. it wasn't possible to reach a complete agreement today. on a couple of issues, some differences remain which require further negotiation and consultation. the deal that appears to have been on the table involve more than ireland effectively remaining inside the eu's customs union. that idea was scuppered by theresa may's parliamentary partners. . northern ireland must leave the european union on the same terms as the rest of the uk. the people have spoken and the answer is we are out. 18 months on from the brexit vote we speak to a pollster about why people voted them and whether they have been changing their minds. keep sending your brexit questions. chris morris is standing by. chris is still here. there's a lot
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of interest in the northern ireland ‘s suggestion that was scuppered and may yet reappear. peter parker would like to ask if northern ireland was to effectively remain in the single market does that mean the rest of the uk could use it as a back door to access it? this is a real problem ina to access it? this is a real problem in a couple of ways. if anyone thought northern ireland was fully in the uk and filly in the single market at the same time after the rest of the uk has left, if i ran a chinese semiconductor belfastfi'jli‘ i‘ve . f 7, belfastm'j‘i‘ i've measured 5 belfastm'j‘i‘ i've measured up 5 his belfast. before i've measured up my shelves, rest assured . reg be g be saying hang on, you cannot will be saying hang on, you cannot use northern ireland as a back door into the single market. that will be
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the same for the rest of the uk. it's a point worth emphasising, there is no members —— membership liked. darren asks, is there still a possibility the uk as a whole could remain in the single market? theoretically yes. take the example of norway, it's in the single market and eec but not in the european union. it seems to me that parts of the labour party are moving towards an idea that may be staying in the single market and the customs union should be an option. of course the labour party and in power. practically under the current government, which we have to admit is fragile and the braille, no. but politics can change. -- fragile and febrile. steve wants to ask, how
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much weight should we give to sadiq khan's idea that lund of special status as well? —— london should have special status as well. there's a lot of politics going on here. practically the idea that london could be in the single market and not the rest of england doesn't make sense to me. politically, if you have scotland saying we want a piece of this and england saying we want a piece of this, the idea of saying maybe the most sensible solution is staying in the single market in some form takes a deeper root. that's what a lot of supporters of staying in the eu would like as a second—best option but it's not what's on offer at the moment from this government. you. we are going to go through a couple of things. if we go back 18 months, these scenes we re we go back 18 months, these scenes were familiar. there was ten weeks
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of campaigning running up to the referendum on the 23rd ofjune 20 16. in the end, it was brexit. the vote to leave one pretty co mforta bly, vote to leave one pretty comfortably, 51.9%. compare those details with this survey from yougov today. they've been asking if the uk was right or wrong to leave the union. there's a lot to die just here but if we look at this, this is interesting. people who said it was the right decision to leave, 42%. people who said it was wrong, 44%. that shift but not much. this is one of the recurring themes of your work which is the regret that some people predicted brexiteers would experience just hasn't materialised. what we've been measuring is that
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there has been little change in the overall level. the country remains divided down the middle on whether it is right or wrong to leave the eu but inevitably it is more complicated. small numbers of people are changing their minds but in both directions. more importantly, around about seven out of ten people believe it's right brexit should go ahead either because they supported it in the first place or because they believe the results of the referendum should be respected and democracy should have its day. the fa ct democracy should have its day. the fact it's costing more than some brexiteers suggested, the fact it may involve leaving the single market, that doesn't seem to be denting peoples attitudes? because for most people they aren't paying that much attention to the minute detail and it's not really affecting them. it's a bit like having a large war ina them. it's a bit like having a large war in a far off country. yes, it has its presence in the news, you hear about it but it doesn't affect you. it's only when these things
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start coming to our home shores and making differences to people's economic situation that we will see a difference. i think that will only be after decisions are made and perhaps then even years down the line. you say some people have changed their mind but not many, is possible to say who those people are? there isn't one group that has changed. it tends to be across different age groups. we are talking about tiny numbers. what hasn't emerged yet is a major bregret group. my sense is it could be labour supporters in industrial towns if they feel they aren't getting the deal they expected. it could also be the case that when a final decision is reached, huge numbers of people if they believe that decision goes too far and another huge number believe it doesn't go far enough, and what's left in the middle is a fairly small numberof left in the middle is a fairly small number of people that support the
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final analysis. a number of viewers are asking about the possibility of are asking about the possibility of a second referendum which neither of the two big parties are offering. is their interest in that or is that a remain fantasy? it's not large numbers of people that believe a second referendum is appropriate, but that's how things stand at the moment. the reason we are tracking this so regularly is because as the situation changes, so does public opinion. it may be the conservatives or labour offer a second referendum ona or labour offer a second referendum on a final deal before we go into the next election. does the perception that perhaps the negotiations haven't gone as smoothly as promised, is that something people factor in when they talk to you? it appears to because people expected the negotiations to go badly. although the government is saying it's not going as well as expected, most people expected it to go badly and they have failed to be disappointed with their expectations. anything you would pick out but we should pay attention
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to? particularly in the press, we have newspapers keen for this to be a su ccess have newspapers keen for this to be a success and others with concerns. it's difficult to gauge the finer points but is there a story we are missing? the crucial question is when people start to think it affects their own economic circumstances. it's fine for people to think the country is taking a hit but what about them. it's the equivalent of the draft being introduced. when that starts to affect people at home, then we may see an impact and it's that we should be looking out for. thank you. we've had a question from jeffrey wa nts you. we've had a question from jeffrey wants to ask about the world trade organisation. if these negotiations don't go to plan, where does the wto fit into how the uk and the eu may have to trade?“ does the wto fit into how the uk and the eu may have to trade? if we have no deal with the eu, so no withdrawal agreement and therefore no transition, suddenly when we leave the eu we have to trade and sometimes. if you like to default to
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the basic rules of the world trade organisation. it's not impossible but it would be a big shock to many sectors of the economy. tariffs would be introduced in both directions. the trouble is that only accou nts directions. the trouble is that only accounts for trading goods. the vast majority now of the british economy isa majority now of the british economy is a service economy. if we fall out of the eu without any deal of any kind, the service sector would be badly hit and i think that's the real concern for many businesses. thank you. if you want more information on brexit head to the bbc website. if sufficient progress is made in phase one of the brexit talks, then phase one of the brexit talks, then phase two can start. this will look ata phase two can start. this will look at a new trade deal between the uk and the eu. we'vejust at a new trade deal between the uk and the eu. we've just been discussing it with chris. for brexit
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supporters this is a huge deal because traders an opportunity in their eyes. notjust because traders an opportunity in their eyes. not just with because traders an opportunity in their eyes. notjust with the eu but beyond as well. here is the brexit secretary david davis injuly 2016. within two years... let's be clear, the timescale mr davies describes is looking impossible now. in time, of course, those deals may follow. next, this is britain's trade secretary liam fox. he is also optimistic. he said this about trading with the eu ‘s. if you think about it, the free trade agreement we will have to come to with the european union should be one of the easiest in human history. we are already beginning with zero tariffs, we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalents, in other words our
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rules and laws are exactly the same. britain says the transition to this new deal will last around two years. perhaps it will, but in october the eu chief negotiator michel barnier gave an interview in which he said it could take several years to negotiate. he also talked about this new trade deal between the uk and eu being... we should note, that deal between the eu and canada is limited in areas such as banking. banking is crucial to the british economy so you would imagine the uk would want something different. another perspective comes from the head of the world trade organisation. clearly, this is not going to be a situation where all trade stops. there is a lapse in terms of the economy as a whole. that is the end of the world, but it's not going to bea of the world, but it's not going to be a walk in the park. there will be an impact. the tendency is that prices will go up, of course. you
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have to absorb the cost of that disruption. that is the head of the wto. chris, we talk about moving on to phase two about trade talks between the uk and the eu. what does that mean in practice? they aren't going to be trade talks as international trade negotiators define where you get down to the nitty—gritty of the legal text. most people say it will take longer than we had under the article 50 process, the two—year period until brexit day. what the eu side is saying, and it's not what david davis is hoping for as we heard in the clip, but what they are saying is what we are looking for is by october next year we wa nt looking for is by october next year we want a broad statement of political principle about how the future relationship looks. notjust on trade but on security and other issues as well. that gives a few months until brexit for a withdrawal agreement and some of those broad principles to be ratified by the european parliament and the uk
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parliament and others. most experts to look at this say, most of the detailed technical negotiation will have to be done after brexit, not before, which is why it's so important for many businesses to have this transition period. theresa may likes to call it an implementation period, to smooth the path. there are these major ambitions for new deals with india, china, the us and others. when can the uk get on with that? part of the problem is most of those countries won't really finalise a deal with the uk until they know what its relationship with the eu looks like. you have countries like japan, a lot of japanese investment in the uk you have countries like japan, a lot ofjapanese investment in the uk is because for them it's a bridgehead into the single market. if that is going to change dramatically, countries are going to want to know. they can start to scope out those agreements but i don't think these final agreements will really happen until the relationship between the uk and the eu becomes clear. we are
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looking... britain is not going to sink beneath the waves but to get back to some sort of equilibrium where we know what all our trading nation chips look like could take several years to achieve. we have phase one going on at the moment, at some stage phase two will start. if the idea they come together into one deal which is agreed six months out from brexit? if we get the fabled sufficient progress in december that kind of marks the start of phase two. in phase two they will have three things. number one, the finalisation of what we've been discussing already. the irish border, citizens' rights and the financial settlement. then you'll have a discussion about transition. there is a hope that can be wrapped up there is a hope that can be wrapped up relatively quickly to give business some confidence there will be continuity, although there are some very be continuity, although there are some very tricky issues surrounding transition not least the future of third country deals. hundreds of deals which the uk is only part
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because at the moment it's part of the eu. those won't necessarily simply roll over when the uk leaves. can it not copy and paste them in the way it has with some european law into uk law? they have to get the permission and agreement of dozens the permission and agreement of d oze ns of the permission and agreement of dozens of countries around the world. you can't just dozens of countries around the world. you can'tjust have an agreement between the uk and the eu and tell third countries to sign up for it. it's a complex process. the third part of what happens is this broad discussion of what the future relationship looks like. the idea is you need to leave a few months at the end for ratification. it needs to be ratified by the european parliament, the uk parliament is going to get a substantial vote and other capitals need to look at it. it's still a tight timetable and there's a lot to do. thank you. we are trying to get through every aspect of the situation with brexit across this edition. we can't really say this enough, nothing is agreed
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in these brexit talks without the uk government and the governments of the other 27 members of the eu agreeing. you'll hear me talking about michel barnier a lot the chief brexit negotiator. there is jean—claude juncker, president of the european commission. they are hugely important in this process. but in the end, it will be those 27 members of the european union who have to get the final sign. arguably, while we've been concentrating on westminster and brussels, germany is the most important of those eu members. this is one view of the german attitude towards brexit. certainly when i was covering the german elections in september, brexit wasn't coming up a great deal. that election gave angela merkel a difficult hand. her party was the biggest but she had a disappointing election and is trying to form a coalition government
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still. that a destruction. —— that isa still. that a destruction. —— that is a distraction. there's no official reaction from the german government but today's developments won't help to ease what is now a profound and all—encompassing sense of concern in germany that this is not going to end well. i'm not talking so much politically but among industrial voices. business voices, there is a fear that britain is going to crash out of the eu without a deal which could have profound implications for german export businesses. but something that the business world is very concerned about. they are also worried about what happens in the meantime. the instability this brings, their inability to plan for the future. on the political front angela merkel of course is busy herself trying to fix a new government. in a sense, nothing in germany has changed in the last year
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or so. angela merkel has always been keen to emphasise in particular to things. first of all the remaining eu 27 member states have to stick together, have to present a united front. secondly, she will save there are principles to which the eu simply have to stick and one of thoseis simply have to stick and one of those is freedom of movement. it's not something from which germany is prepared to budge. what's really striking in germany is whoever you speak to, whether it's the public, politicians, businesses, pop and large they will say the same thing. they really sad, they didn't want to see britain leave the eu. next we go to spain and we are going to hear from our report in barcelona. also we need to bear in mind gibraltar. it hasn't come to the boil as an issue yet but it could
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still do between the eu and the uk. here are more details. spain and the uk have a close relationship in many economic areas, not least of all in tourism. last year 17 million british people visited spain on holiday. but also there are around 300,000 british people who live in spain. many of them are pensioners who live on the costa del sol. the spanish authorities are concerned about those british people. they don't want them to return back to britain. also the spanish authorities are watching closely the status of their own nationals, tens of thousands of them, who live and work in britain. beyond that, there is also the issue of gibraltar. the territory on the southern tip of the iberian peninsular which belongs to britain, but that ownership is disputed by spain. spain has said it wa nts to disputed by spain. spain has said it wants to have a veto over any brexit deal that has any kind of impact on
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gibraltar. those are some of the issues that the spanish authorities are watching very closely when it comes to the brexit negotiations. well, spain and germany are among the older members of the eu. if you go further east, while many eastern european countries joined the eu within the last 15 years, one of them is poland. here in warsaw there are two main brexit issues. by far the biggest is securing the rights of the 900,000 polls already living in the uk. at the moment their status is unclear and that has caused great uncertainty both for them and their families caused great uncertainty both for them and theirfamilies back caused great uncertainty both for them and their families back here. secondly, money. poland gets more than any other country under the current eu budget and britain is a big contributor to that budget. with the uk leaving, there is some concern there could be a shortfall in cash and that could mean fewer eu
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funds for poland. survey after survey shows that poles probe overwhelmingly support being in the eu. brexit doesn't appear to have changed that. what might be beginning to influence opinion is the ongoing dispute between warsaw and brussels over the rule of law. some poles are beginning to think it might be better to follow britain's lead. before we finish this special edition, we are going to speak to chris morris again. i want to run you through the brexit timetable for the next couple of weeks. on the 6th of decemberjean—claude juncker hosts a session of the european council. the chief eu brexit negotiator michel barnier is expected to give an update on whether sufficient progress has been made to go ahead to phase two. but will be decided by how those top—level negotiations are going on citizens' rights, the divorce bill and the irish border. on december
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14, eu and the irish border. on december 1a, eu leaders including theresa will gather for a summit in brussels. these happen on a thursday and a friday and on the friday december 15, theresa may will leave the leaders of the remaining 27 will decide if phase two can begin. chris, we know these things tend to get thrashed out before the summit begins. they do. you mentioned the sixth which is only two days' time, there is some suggestion theresa may baby back in brussels —— may be back in brussels. there will be a lot of chat tomorrow between the conservatives, her cabinet and the dup. they realise if you can't sort this out in the next couple of days it's probably going to be too late to achieve what they want to do at the summit week later. the danger thenisif the summit week later. the danger then is if sufficient progress is announced, is for agreed to be reached on the broad outlines of the
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other 27 saying we can move on and here are our guidelines. if that doesn't happen on the 1ath, you've got the christmas holiday, new year and suddenly it's january. the clock sta rts and suddenly it's january. the clock starts ticking even further. i think they need to get it done in the next 72 hours to prepare for that summit at the end of next week. gordon says what happens if there is no deal on the irish border? isn't that an thinkable? if there is no deal on the irish border, if you got to the stage of brexit and nothing had been agreed and northern ireland left the single market and the customs union along with the rest of the uk, there would have to be border checks on that border. a hard border would re—emerge. the problem is the british government appears to have red lines which slightly contradict each other. we want northern ireland and the uk to leave the single market and the customs union but we wa nt market and the customs union but we want no evidence of any border, an
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invisible border if you like, between northern ireland and the republic. it is difficult to marry them together. you can have certain fudges. maybe there is this regulatory alignment between the republic and northern ireland on certain key issues like agriculture, energy. there's a lot of the detail which gets very difficult and technical. they aren't there yet. i'm not expecting you to answer a detailed question about the cruise industry but is one save, how will this affect how the cruise industry works? i guess it highlights how there are lots of questions for businesses about how, if they reach across from the uk into the eu, how it's just across from the uk into the eu, how it'sjust going to across from the uk into the eu, how it's just going to work in practical terms. presumably you mean big ocean liners? a cruise liner based out of southampton at the moment, there will be a regulation which the
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maritime safety agency, and eu safety which all eu countries are pa rt safety which all eu countries are part of. if the uk going to stay pa rt part of. if the uk going to stay part of. if the uk going to stay part of that, is it going to mirror the regulations? we talk about things like regulations but that is how the world operates, and rules and regulations. at the moment we have the same as the rest of the eu and that is going to change. i'll find a question you can't answer at some point but i haven't managed it today! you can get more from the tea m today! you can get more from the team not just an today! you can get more from the team notjust an brexit but an lots of news stories, search for bbc reality check. thank you for watching this special and brexit. we are back tomorrow at the same time covering a range of stories. welcome to our latest thoughts on the weather over the next four or five days and into next week. the
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script for this week is that we start the week fairly quietly. by wednesday and thursday things get very wet and windy as you will see. then the end of the week turns much, much colder. let's do that stage by stage. on tuesday a replica of monday, a lot of settled weather around save the northern and north—western parts of scotland. it of brightness around, 8—10d. not too bad at all. but this is where we begin to see the first signs of a change, especially across northern and western parts of the british isles. this low pressure is going to gradually drag its wind and rain into those northern and western areas. it could be a gale, small comfort perhaps that it gives us the mildest day of the week. temperatures widely in double figures, that's the last time i will be saying that in this particular forecast. as the low—pressure churns its way up towards the coast of scandinavia, we begin to see the
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last of the mild south—westerly winds slipping away towards the near continent, and notice the temperatures in knowledge are 11 degrees in the morning, as we tucked into some of that cold north and north—westerly wind we conclude the day in norwich at 8 degrees and falling. notice the number of isobars. this is a deep area of low pressure. that could be severe gale force if not storm force winds coming down the eastern shores and coming down the eastern shores and coming from a very cold direction. as we kicked into a north and north—westerly we tap into that reservoir of cold air sitting there, waiting to the north of the british isles. on friday across all parts of the british isles, a cold day. the showers will be wintry, not necessarily just on showers will be wintry, not necessarilyjust on higher showers will be wintry, not necessarily just on higher ground, given that that will be the temperature profile. you could be closer to feeling like “i! rather than plus two. as we start the
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weekend, not a deal of change. still a lot of isobars on chart, especially so through central and eastern parts. still plenty of showers especially among those eastern shores. north york moors seeing a covering of snow and the high ground across northern and eastern parts. towards the latter pa rt eastern parts. towards the latter part of the weekend, this high pressure trying to tumble into calm things down across the western side of the british isles. my eye is fixed on that area of low throwing frontal systems down towards the western side of the british isles. is that low—pressure drags down across the south—west in quarter, if you are properly in the milder associated with the low—pressure then you are going to see leaden skies and it will rain. here comes the butt. however, if that low— pressure the butt. however, if that low—pressure comes down across the south—western quarter of the british isles, you are more likely to be in the colder air, then i think you're going to stay in that rather wintry regime and there will be some ice
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and snow. the uncertainty comes in the boundary between where is the warm air, where is the cold air. it will be colder in the north and east and milder in the south and west. where is the snow going to fall on that boundary level and just how much? see you soon. tonight at ten. no breakthrough yet in the latest round of brexit talks. the future of northern ireland is the main issue. theresa may and jean—claude juncker say good progress has been made but more talks are needed later this week. some differences do remain which require further negotiation and consultation.
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this is not a failure. this is the start of the very last run. i am very confident that we will reach agreement in the course of this week. the irish border is the big challenge with the dup saying they'll resist any plans to align northern ireland with the rest of the eu. we have been very clear, northern ireland must leave the european union on the same terms as the rest of the united kingdom.
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