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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  August 30, 2019 8:30am-9:01am BST

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ffififlfig feeling fresher, up. feeling fresher, with some heavy can potentially thundery showers. this is business live from bbc news with ben bland and victoria fritz. bracing for impact. more us businesses and farmers say they are suffering from the trade war with china — as they prepare for the fall out from a new round of tariffs coming in over the weekend. you're watching bbc news at 9 with me annita mcveigh — the headlines. live from london, that's our top the government says it's intensifying talks with the eu to try and find story on friday 30th of august. a new brexit agreement. an emergency injunction to stop the suspension of parliament — scotland's highest civil court american companies, and consumers, will rule this morning. are starting to feel the pain the increased risk of breast cancer from menopausal hormone therapy lasts more than a decade of the trade war with china — after treatment stops, as a coalition of us industry groups a major report says. asks mrtrump to reconsider the dispute. we don't want to alarm women also in the programme... but we don't want to give them false reassurance about the risks security researchers at google have
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found evidence of a sustained associated with hrt. two prominent pro—democracy effort to hack iphones over a period campaigners are arrested in hong kong, as police ban of at least two years. a planned weekend protest. will have the markets for you. the european indices picking up on a rally from asia overnight. some optimism around potential talks to what resolve the us— china trade war. it's been a big week in politics here in the uk with the brexit saga — and also abroad — how does that change the economic outlook? we'll have andrew walker with us to canter through the future for the uk, italy and argentina. researchers at google uncover security flaws on iphones — with hackers potentially getting hold of contacts, photos & location data. so today we want to know — how quickly do you apply software updates? what else do you do to keep data safe? let us know — just use the hashtag #bbcbizlive
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hello and welcome to business live. happy friday. we start our programme in the us — where trade tariffs will be hiked yet again on more goods from china. the latest round will affect another $125 billion worth of products — everything from smartwatches to flat screen tvs, footwear to bluetooth headsets. all in all — it will mean that a total of $550 billion worth of goods traded will fall under tariffs imposed by president trump. american companies, and consumers, are feeling the pain. a coalition of us industry organisations has asked mr trump to reconsider his plan. china — this time — has indicated it won't immediately retaliate with tariffs of its own. in fact, the chinese commerce ministry says beijing and washington are discussing the possibility of talks next month. with me here is the
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economist linda yeuh. thanks for coming on the programme, good to see you. america cannot have a cheap currency, a trade conflict and a thriving economy at the same time. is donald trump risking recession with these tactics? that is the danger, the us economy is slowing. in fact, is the danger, the us economy is slowing. infact, globally, growth probably peaked last year in the us, and in this part of the cycle the last thing you want to imposes taxes on everything that trine are ascending to the us. and china is retaliating, not immediately, but they are retaliating in other ways, including increasing costs of what america is selling, as well as some issues around investment. so, this issues around investment. so, this is one of the reasons why us industry groups, and also others, are quite concerned that if the trade war does not get resolved, it is just trade war does not get resolved, it isjust a downside risk trade war does not get resolved, it is just a downside risk of the worst pa rt is just a downside risk of the worst part of the cycle. if you look at the us response, one of the things president trump has asked, well,
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tweeted, that the head of the us central bank to do is to do more. he realises in this part of the cycle that confidence is fragile. if you can't get the central bank to do more, that means he may have to change his actions. i think there is quite a lot of impetus in the white house right now to try to get a deal in terms of the level playing field with china, and that is the hold—up. it's not actually over these levels of tariffs. this is the instrument, the deep underlying problem is that they want this resolved once and for all. i don't think that is possible very quickly. it doesn't appear to be so. let's talk about donald trump's twitter feed. do you think there's any truth to his claims that his plan so far, his trade plan, has caused the loss of 3 million jobs in china? has it hurt them that much? there is certainly an impact in china. it's very difficult to know the extent to which it is because of the extent to which it is because of the trade war or because china is also ina the trade war or because china is also in a cyclical slowdown. in other words, in this part of the cycle, of course, taxes and tariffs, and changing supply chains, which is
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one of the most damaging effects of this trade war, is going to have an impact on chinese exporters and on their employment. but it's also the case that the chinese economy is slowing. now, officialstatistics, we can talk about that another time, but the trend is a slowdown. it's ha rd to but the trend is a slowdown. it's hard to know how much of it is domestic demand slowing, because they are in this part of the cycle, and how much of it is due specifically to what is happening with the trade war. i have no doubt some of it is, just as it is with the us. for instance, the us administration has put in 12, $15 billion of subsidies to help american farmers. so there is definitely an impact. which, again, in this part of the cycle, for the two main engines of growth in the world to be worsening the slowdown, it could lead to recession, may be in their economies. it certainly globally it is having an impact here, as well as germany and elsewhere in the continent. absolutely, you are right. what do you think we should read on china
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deciding not to immediately retaliate to the latest round of trade tariffs coming in this weekend? i think that was viewed as quite a positive step in trying to get this resolved. markets reacted a little bit more favourably. i should say, they were just relieved to have some news that trade talks might resume. you saw that. i think one of the things that has to happen is the chinese and the us have to come to the table to resolve, essentially, differences around trust. in other words, they were very close to a deal a little while ago, but what happened was the americans didn't believe the chinese would go through with what they said. they wanted it legally enshrined in chinese laws. that fundamentally tells you what is wrong with these trade talks. if they can't get to the table and build some trust, they can't actually come to an agreement that can be enforceable. and fundamentally, and i think this is the part where the chinese, we talked about economically why everybody wants it ended, but i think fundamentally this trade war will last even if they come to a
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deal, because there are us elections next year. but it is also because it isa next year. but it is also because it is a struggle over power. so, this means that right now it is tariffs, it has spread into supply chains, president trump once american companies to produce at home, it is over 5g, this is where the current frontier is. and this frontier is going to move. next year it will be other issues and other ways in which us and chinese standards and dominance, and influence, it is going to go on. but i think for all oui’ going to go on. but i think for all our sakes we should hope that this trade war phase gets resolved. because the last thing you want is to make global trade restricted and more expensive at a time when, actually, if you look at seven quarters gdp here, the uk is contracting, germany is contracting, it is not a good time to be in a trade war. while ago exactly, stuttering. thank you very much. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news.
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the uk prime minister borisjohnson has said he is to step up tempo on new deal talks. the uk's brexit negotiators will now meet their eu counterparts twice a week next month. it follows a backlash from mps and opponents of a no—deal brexit against the decision to suspend parliament next month. japan's jobless rate dipped to its lowest level in 27 years injuly, bucking forecasts, while retail sales dropped at the fastest rate in more than three years. german retail sales took a bigger battering than expected injuly. they reveal the biggest drop this year in the latest indication that europe's largest economy may well slide into recession. seasonally adjusted sales fell 2.2 % last month compared withjune, continuing a declining trend since february of this year. later today we'll have the latest gdp figures from india. and we could see more signs of a global economic slowdown. suranjana tewani is in mumbai —
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what are we expecting to hear? well, it is not likely to be good news from these figures. the gdp figures are for the april tojune quarter of this year and experts are expecting it to be around 5.7%. compare that with last year, when india was going at about 8%. there isa india was going at about 8%. there is a significant slowdown. we have been seeing it for the last few quarters. there are a number of reasons for this, india is facing a shadowed banking crisis that has dried up lines of credit to businesses to people, so they are buying less homes, less biscuits, they are even buying less underwear. and that has had a big on big industries. so the auto industry has seen a real slowdown. the biggest manufacturer has seen a slowdown of 36% in sales injustjuly manufacturer has seen a slowdown of 36% in sales in justjuly alone. everyone is quite concerned, including the government, who last
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week, on friday, introduced a raft of measures to try to stimulus growth and revive the economy. even the other day, the government announced new rules with relation to foreign direct investment, which has been a contentious issue in the past. but it realises it needs to do something to stimulus the economy. lets look at the markets. asian shares jumped to a one—week high on friday as the united states and china showed a willingness to resolve their trade dispute by returning to the negotiating table, though lingering recession fears temperedsome of the enthusiasm. tension in hong kong has added to investor jitters. the hang tension in hong kong has added to investorjitters. the hang seng is fairly flat, down just a shade. their main us indices ended with steep gains. that filter through to europe. we will see how europe is
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doing. a strong finish on wall street overnight. we will keep an eye on what is happening. we will getan eye on what is happening. we will get an expert take on the market moves in a moment. security researchers at google have found evidence of a sustained effort to hack iphones. what did they find? google has a team of researchers called project zero, they routinely investigate other people's software to try to find security flaws. with the iphone they found that for at least two mac areas in the ios operating system there was a floor where attackers could leave booby—trapped websites, and if you visited one of them they could get hold of some of your data from the phone, messages, photos, geolocation data, sometimes even information from some of the apps you are using like instagram or whatsapp. what is unusual about this is that often security researchers find these flaws and they are hypothetical,
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where nobody has been using them in the wild. but google says this particular flaw was being used the wild. but google says this particularflaw was being used in the wild, they found it being used by criminals. apple has fixed the flaw, they issued a software update in february. if you want to stay safe, always install the software updates. which i'm sure you always do, ben, you never leave them waiting! absolutely not. i love the idea in the wild, the wild west of the internet. let's get that expert take. the man himself, james bevan from cc la investment management. let's start with the world's most profitable company. well, it's not. it is quite opaque. it may be the world's largest company in terms of profits, but profitability is a function of profits relative to revenue. this is a huge company in revenue. this is a huge company in
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revenue terms. that is what is generating the cash. let's talk about that cash. let's talk about how it might be up for grabs. we know that at some point it will be floating, we know that it will have an initial public offering. the whole point has been who is going to get a slice of this pie, where is it going to list. we understand that the favoured venue for the international listing is likely to be tokyo. that is what the media is reporting at the moment. that's quite a blow to london, hong kong? new york? it certainly is, i agree. there have been big discussions in london about how listing particulars may need to be relaxed in order to ensure that saudi aramco would be welcome. this was a revelation of significant opportunity for companies that would achieve reve nu es companies that would achieve revenues associated with the float. the assumption it is going to tokyo will be a glum piece of news for
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operators in london. lets keep this in perspective, us gdp revised down by o.1%, in perspective, us gdp revised down by 0.1%, should we be worried? absolutely not, the trend rate of growth in the us has been around 2%. ido growth in the us has been around 2%. i do worry that the first half of the year, growth was massaged up by the year, growth was massaged up by the building of infantry is. in other words, stuff was produced, and instead of ending up with consumers and went onto shelves. i think the second half of the year will be quieter. full year growth of 2% would be a country mile better than many other economies. very briefly, we don't have much time, business investment is falling for the first time in three years. manufacturing appears to be in decline. those are not forward—looking indicators that appear to be very good for the us economy. absolutely not. the import indicators say america is going to stop importing the volumes it has had as well. on top of the slowing global economy, that has to be bad news. we should expect a slow
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economic picture than we have had. good to see you. good to be here. still to come.. a big week in politics here in the uk with the brexit saga — and also abroad — how does that change the economic outlook? we'll have andrew walker with us to canter through the future for the uk, italy and argentina. you're with business live from bbc news. registered growth. it's been nine straight months that house prices have barely registered growth. this is according to nationwide building society. in fact, things have looked preety sluggish since the middle of 2016. but there are always things that'll boost the desirability of a home — living near public transport, for example. if you're in the capital and near a tube stop for example, expect to add as much as 42,000
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to the value of your home. andrew harvey is nationwide's senior economic analyst — what signals are you getting from the property market? good morning. yes, as you mentioned, it has been a relatively subdued picture. we have seen nine months in a row where house price growth has been below 1%. in august, we saw growth of just been below 1%. in august, we saw growth ofjust 0.6%, year—on—year, and no change on the month, given normal seasonal factors. i think the picture is one at the moment where activity is relatively subdued. in terms of transactions, we have seen a bit ofa terms of transactions, we have seen a bit of a decline on hmrc figures, although mortgage approvals themselves have been relatively flat. there will be data out this morning which will confirm the picture forjuly. today we have seen a weakening consumer sentiment based on the indicators, suggesting that consumers will be slightly more hesitant in purchasing property. let's talk about this idea about public transport boosting the value of your home. this is fine if you
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are living in london, glasgow, manchester, not great news if you are effectively off grid or rural. just not connected to the public transport network. rural accessibility is a problem, although there are other factors that will provide a boost to rural areas. some researchers around national parks on the benefits to living within those. it's not all bad news if you are in a rural community, but clearly there isa a rural community, but clearly there is a greater dependence on car, rather than public transport. as you mentioned, what we're seeing in the big cities is where you do live close to a station, and we do say there is a significant house price premium, they are most prominent in london, as you would probably expect, given the dependence on public transport, where home buyers are willing to pay over 9% more for are willing to pay over 9% more for a property which is within 500 metres of a tube station. andrew harvey, thank you very much. plenty more on the website. a story has
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just gone up. she was own shares taking a kicking as the executive quits with no notice. —— shoe zone. more us businesses and farmers say they are suffering from a trade war with china as they prepare for a fallout from a new round of tariffs. let's look at how the markets are faring. it is pretty much flat. a turbulent month in terms of trade. volumes have been quite thin. some of the moves we have seen look exaggerated. but at the moment, the ftse 100 exaggerated. but at the moment, the ftse100 is up just exaggerated. but at the moment, the ftse100 is upjust ten exaggerated. but at the moment, the ftse100 is up just ten little points. interesting that the pound is up to $1.21. it has been responding to the twists. it has been a big week in politics for the uk, with the decision to prorogue
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parliament. let's chew over all of that would undo andrew walker. —— with andrew walker. the pound is likely recovering compared to the dollar. it seems to be that the currency reflects how investors are viewing brexit. absolutely. the pound has very much be in the indicator of what investors think is the probability of outcomes in the whole brexit process. in the past month or so, it has been a false ability of a new deal brexit. the decision to prorogue parliament was seen as increasing the possibility, because it reduces the amount of time that parliament has to prevent no deal. we did see a significant, although not a massive fall in the value of the pound. perhaps markets are taking a bit of comfort from news today that the prime minister is intending to increase the intensity of the negotiations. i
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think he does genuinely want to have a deal, although he is prepared to live without one. the fact he is putting more effort into that may also have the benefit for him, i suppose, of discouraging conservatives who want to avoid no—dealfrom conservatives who want to avoid no—deal from joining forces with the opposition. perhaps they might be more inclined to give the government back the benefit of the doubt and a bit more time to try to nail a deal down. not a question of whether it is realistic to suppose that the british government can get a deal a cce pta ble british government can get a deal acceptable to them and to the eu. views on that do obviously differ quite widely, just about how credible that objective is. absolutely. let's talk about italy. the country appears to be moving closer to ending a three week political crisis. but the collapse of one government, and the arrival of one government, and the arrival of another? yes, the president has instructed giuseppe conte, who was the prime minister before, of a
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different coalition government, to put together a new government programme. previously we had the populist 5—star movement on right—wing league the league have pulled out and now we have negotiations to nail down a definitive programme for the 5—star movement with the centre—left democratic party. the political situation has progressed. it is not a straightforward matter. it has to go to the membership of the 5—star movement, and who knows what they will decide. the markets have viewed this develop and positively, partly because it suggests we have a chance of getting a government. but also the party that has disappeared, the league, with ones that were more enthusiastic about extensive tax cuts, that would then pose new challenges for the italian government's finances, more arguments with the european commission, and do bear in mind that italy has the potential, at least, to be the eurozone's biggest
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financial problem. you might not believe that if you looked at the bond market, because italian ten year government bonds are yielding less tha n year government bonds are yielding less than 1%. and there has been a general drift down over the course of the week in government bond deals because of these concerns about the economic outlook. there is no question that italy could blow up for the rest of the eurozone. argentina, potentially plenty of reasons to cry for them, because you have the currency falling, having to grapple with the imf over the bailout deal. it seems quite worrying. we had another development this week with the government decided they wanted to re—profile their debt repayments to the imf and much of their bond debt, and that essentially means pushing repayments further out into the future, and many investors, no doubt, will see this as a default, and certainly some of the credit rating agencies have been thinking in those kind of
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terms. it does underline yet again argentina has a desperate economic and financial situation. markets we re and financial situation. markets were hoping that the incumbent president was going to signal a new era of well—managed government finances and of market friendly economic policies. he has done some of the things that market think are appropriate, but it's not been enough to get control of inflation or to really get the government finances under control. and the chances are that he's going to lose power in the next election and we get reversion to the kind of more populist government that will make the markets very uneasy. the signs that this was going to happen was what triggered it off. lovely to see you. ina what triggered it off. lovely to see you. in a moment we will go through the business pages, but first if you wa nt to the business pages, but first if you want to get in touch, here is how.
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london, singapore, shanghai, new york, our correspondents have your business world covered. on air, online and on the bbc‘s news app. check out bbc.com/business for the insight and analysis. the bbc‘s business live page has the latest breaking business news. we wants your views too. get in touch via the business live page, tweet us @bbcbusiness or find us on facebook at bbc money. join the bbc‘s business conversation. are you going to talk or am i going to talk? respectful silence! what other business stories has the media been taking an interest in? james bevan is with us again. the guardian has this story, lewis hamilton investing in a meat free burger chain, it turns out he is vegan? and has been since 2017. one might say there are three issues here, one is that he is clearly in a sense putting his money where his mouth is, the second issue is that i
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think he is quite cleverly cashing in on his reputation, because people will say we need to go there if he is endorsing it, we want some of the action. thirdly, this is a venture capital and he will be looking for the tax breaks. this is a gentleman who is making a huge amount of money, but to try and keep as much of that money as possible he obviously wants to pay legitimately as little tax as he can get away with. venture capital gives him that opportunity. looking at the growth of the market, we know what happened with beyond me to when it debuted on the stock exchange, extraordinary rise, the rise of the market more generally. the number of uk vegans are soaring from 150,000, to 600,003 orfour mercurius? are soaring from 150,000, to 600,003 or four mercurius? what is interesting about this is that a large chunk of the appetite to participate in a new lifestyle has been about climate change, it has been about climate change, it has been about climate change, it has been about animal rights. the lewis hamilton perspective, no, this is actually jolly good food. thank you very much, a lovely thought to finish on. have a great weekend. and
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i hope you have a great weekend as well. see you soon. goodbye. good morning. we've got a north — south divide going on as far as the weather is concerned today. for the southern half of the uk it is breezy but mostly dry. for the northern half of the uk, it is blustery once again, with outbreaks of rain. it is down to a weather front that is draped through northern ireland, stretching up into scotland. along this band of rain we are going to see some heavy pulses for the day. it will slip further southwards in parts of north—west england and north—west wales. brightening up for the far north of scotland as the day goes on. the best of the dry and bright weather will be the further south and east you are, that is where we see the highest of the temperatures. feeling warm, highs of 25 celsius. the rain keeps coming, this evening and overnight. some
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heavy bursts affecting similar sorts of areas but it starts to pivot and moved into western areas by dawn. for most places, the further east and south you are, you will hang on to clear spells. a fairly mild start to clear spells. a fairly mild start to saturday. gradually through the day on saturday, it is going to be working its way eastwards. it is a cold front. before it does so, it will have brought a fair amount of rain to parts of northern ireland in western scotland, where the met office has issued yellow warnings. so, our band of rain is on the move through saturday, from heavy pulses initially, it then starts to weaken and fragment. turning more showery and fragment. turning more showery and that band of rain narrows as we head through the day and it works its way down towards the far south and east. behind it, it brightens up. it will feel noticeably cooler. if you shower is feeding in, which have the potential to be heavy and thundery. temperatures certainly downer where they have been, holding onto that warmth in the far south and east. our cold front gradually
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clear south eastwards overnight into saturday. it's a bit of a game changer, because it then opens up the floodgates to much cooler air, working its way on in a north—westerly breeze. that will be a feature as we go through sunday. a fresh appealfor all of a feature as we go through sunday. a fresh appeal for all of us. it is the first day of metrological autumn, and while there will be dry, bright, sunny intervals, we will also have showers feeding on, which have the potential to be heavy and thundery. temperature—wise, ithink we will notice a difference on sunday, not only by day, but a 00:28:34,483 --> 4294966103:13:29,430 chilly night to come, too.
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