tv In the Loop With Betty Liu Bloomberg December 18, 2013 8:00am-10:01am EST
you are "in the loop." ben bernanke and other fed policymakers are wrapping up their two-day meeting today. remember that bernanke's news conference will be 30 minutes later. coming up short in the fiscal sector here in an airline reported earnings that missed estimates. fedex raised its forecast for the entire year. shares of amc began trading today. the movie theater chain controlled by china's third millionman raise $302 and invited members of its customer loyalty plan to take part. an unusual aspect to this ipo. we mentioned, chairman ben bernanke will be holding what is likely his last news conference today. expires january 31.
the confirmation vote in the senate may take place as early as next week. no one is taking that's after the surprise where the central bank confused -- prediction.making a you are not sticking your neck out. class i am not. job creation has really picked up and that has a lot of people talking about the possibility of a taper. we talked yesterday about how retail sales were pretty good. maybe that means things were sustainable. let me show you something i did not show you yesterday. step back a little bit and look at this overtime. retail sales have not been breaking out. they are still in the same range they have been all year. you could say the same thing about job creation. it is in roughly the average range it has been all year.
anyhas not broken out of kind of range. it is hard to argue you he has made a whole lot of difference. do you keep it going? cut back because it is not at no big changeass in gdp and employment, the fed sits waiting for employment to really move the cook -- before class they also want to see it is sustainable. they are looking for evidence the economy is accelerating. when you step back a little bit, you are not seeing that. you do not know what you should do. class qe1 started back in november 2008. diet,e been on qe, the for about five years. is it about time to take it away ? class a lot of people are arguing that. we should get to a $4 trillion
said alice she sometime this week. some people at the fed are worrying about that and the excess reserves piling up at the banks with the economy so slow. they are suggesting we should cut interest rates. maybe they will lend some of it out. others say you do not want to do that to ignite inflation. a big debate. to people's gun head today and say you have to make a bet on the markets, people would say they probably are not going to taper. a couple of possible surprises. a pressld have conference at every meeting and the markets could interpret they will taper in january. >> just the announcement of more press conferences would mean here is an increase likely. flex they do not have a press conference every month. he will think in the month they do not, they will not do anything because the fed chairman cannot explain what they're doing.
>> light of they do it every month? >> it was just the way they set it up. phenomenon.h a new >> yes. they were experimenting with it. it seems to have worked. maybe it becomes less of an event driven thing. >> thank you very much. the verge of a significant change. silver rake is set to be poised to buy ing worldwide for 2 billion dollars. cristina alesci has insight on the toss. julie, interesting, downstairs. what is up with fedex? class we are looking at fedex earnings just coming out this morning and missing analyst estimates by four percent and coming in at one dollar and $.57. the company raised its forecasts, or ickes range of earnings-per-share increases, looking for the full year, from
eight percent to 14%. it had been looking from seven to 13%. it looks like investors are focusing on the miss here at fedex. the company said basically it is still struggling between express and ground and freight volumes, people opting for cheaper volumes here. at the same time, fedex has been undergoing this ambitious cost- cutting plan aiming to cut over the next several years. at the same time it is trying to upgrade aircraft and improve its fleet. it is a time of change here at fedex and one would think it would be benefiting quite a bit from the online shopping growth. it is to some extent, but perhaps not as much as had been anticipated. >> thank you. another company dealing -- gearing up for the holidays is amazon.com. facing a second week of the union strikes in germany.
amazon'sols is outside logistics center. this is a very different situation than amazon's aces in other parts of the world. what do the workers there one? >> it is a destroy in a broadcast i give you a german lesson. want a collective wage agreement. in short, they want more money. they are paid 950 euros an hour and they want to be bumped up more to the 11 if the range. they want to be out of as retailers and not as those in the logistics industry. amazon says their workers are paid at the upper end of the logistics ban at the 950 range, but not in the retail category. fundamentally, we are talking now about a test of wills between amazon, the company, and these workers. there are 9000 workers in germany, permanent. over the last couple of days, we are in the third days of strikes, we have seen about an average of 1000 workers
striking. about five percent of the workforce. the challenge for amazon is for them to continue to deliver product and shipments throughout this holiday season while doing it with less than five percent of their workforce on strike outside picketing. most have left here today. earlier, there was a crowd of a couple hundred. they went downtown to get support among university students. they will be back tomorrow and going all week. workersonfident are the they will be able to break amazon here? >> there is a lot of bluster from the union organizers. they gave speeches and rallies. underneath it all, there is a great deal of year. that flies a few kilometers to the east in poland. amazon is starting three new ones in poland. amazon could simply outsource those jobs and wages would be
lower and there will be fewer collective action bargains there. what they are really trying to do is have solidarity with potential workers in poland and the czech republic so they can wage -- the cost of living is so much different and the distances are so small. think about sending someone from ohio to jersey. that is the difference from poland to this part of jersey. a couple corners. the challenge is how to hold the fort down here and make sure they do not lose territory. poland in countries like , where amazon wants to expand. >> we reached a part of the broadcast where i give you an amazon lesson. amazon language, they do not call them warehouses here they call them fulfillment centers. they want you to know fulfilled not just in your purchase, but in your employment. think amazon is
about this different labor situation there than they have ever had to deal with? i tried to look up for film and centers but there is not an exact translation. the challenge amazon has here is it is in some ways analogous to the other challenges tech companies have when they come to germany. a different set of issues. amazons bluster on seaside, as well. they are saying we will continue to deliver products on time to our consumers and customers in germany. as long as they're able to, they may have the upper hand in these negotiations. that said, 2006, there was nothing here. behind me big factor now. in 2010, the union should of and they have made robbins. -- progress. they have christmas bonuses. they are making incremental progress. what the union wants to see is fully unionized and higher
ridges. they want to see vacation money. job security. amazonre long lists might not be prepared to share. >> thank you so much. hans nichols. did you feel fulfilled at amazon? class i did enjoy my time. spent time at those of foam and centers and it is a really hard and mindnumbing job of putting stuff on shelves and taking stuff off shelves and walking off with a sharp -- shopping cart, having people monitor how quickly you are working. it is a rough job here my first reaction was, thank you doug for their hard work and thank you doug i went to college because that is not the job i want. books andcan get your everything else. thank you, guys.
♪ moving and shaking this hour, the wolf of wall street, the new martin scorsese's film that required actors to learn quite a different side of investing. leonardo dicaprio stars as a real-life rocher convicted of stock swindling. let's make him the movie held a new york premiere and we spoke and got of his costars a feel for the business by talking to legitimate brokers. a reale were playing story of people involved with stocks, and i would take any assurance to make sure i was, you know, learning everything i could and immersing myself as much as possible. werearn what of it. they really open with us in letting us see what their day-to-day operations were like. class i spoke with salesman. with people today and got a lot of things from people trying to sugarcoat. you can see they were pivoting. wrapy, it is a -- it is a
of all of that. class immersion acting? they go into trading floors. class i think it is a great point, the notion that legit rocher's are different from the bucket shop brokers. level, you're trying to get a sale done. i have seen guys of all kinds engage in these things. the book was a real eye-opener. class you mentioned. what was interesting was there were other comments made at that premier where they talked about, what do they do about investing themselves and mostly actors trust any ofdo not these wall street guys. i am very conservative and i will put my money in bonds and will not let any of these guys gamble the money away. is a general feeling in hollywood about how wall street is. >> when people come into money as actors do after struggling,
it is a hard thing to manage financially. class absolutely. same for athletes. the movie opens christmas day. we will be watching it. i never go to the movies but i want to see it. to buy img is poised for more than $2 billion. cristina alesci is inside on the toss. it is an interesting deal and has as big names as you could imagine. class absolutely. if there's one thing you need to know about the deal, if you thought emmanuel was a big deal for this deal, he is an even bigger deal now. he is going to be combining william morris endeavor with ing , diversifying his business, really, away from hollywood, and it in addition to having the agency business, he will now have a very big sports business and not just on the agency side,
but also on the licensing side. they are getting into a much different business right now. silver lake, how it plays into this, is that they back emmanuel back in 2002. >> the inspiration for ari gold in entourage. class exactly, a caricature. correct every that the character. you could see. class i do not want to know what that night was like. >> in a full disclosure, i am a client of img. the very bottom of the list of its stars. tell me who the biggest stars are. it,s d manning, you name they have the big man sphere that is the month -- not the most profitable part of the business. it is the college sports business they have that licenses all kinds of things related to college sports teams. in addition, they would say they have nationalized local sports
and brought in big national sponsors to locals or schemes and this is the driving force behind our growth for quite some time. --is one of the major region reasons silver lake one of the business. there will be significant challenges. a big character. he has pulled off mergers before. endeavor bought william morris, a bigger shop ear again. he is going after a bigger fish. not only will he have to write -- to digest all of that, but he is putting debt on this business. between 1.5 and $2 billion of debt on the business. lesson has got to be pretty steady from these businesses as well. class absolutely but you have got to pay your guys. all of his agents are thinking, what will happen? there will are definitely going to be cost cuts out of this deal. class people want to know what the mother fed them. they are all outside characters and all hugely stressful in the fields they are in. thank you so much. coming up, a dozen donuts goes
>> ben bernanke's his final fed meeting is today, and 100 year anniversary, bringing together former fed runners. a businessman whose career has spanned the last few decades as those three men lead the central bank. we are talking about paul bucher. and ben bernanke. the former partner of private equity firm bain capital and also the author of "unintended consequences. oh -- consequences."
years andthrough the you also lived through the bernanke years, culminating in your book. in your view, which fed chairmen serve you best? [laughter] >> i suppose alan greenspan. even.t things steady and if you look at the class of 1982, it has been an extremely successful class because over this time, the economy has grown by leaps and bounds relative to other times. are talking about what ben bernanke's legacy might be but i feel like we do not know because we do not know where it ends and the flooding of the markets and all this money could and poorly. money really led to the asset inflation and lead to a crash that was very punishing for a lot of people.
do you think we can take stock in bernanke today e >> i disagree with you on greenspan. i do not think the fed has a big impact on asset bubbles. small but not large. i think ben bernanke will be recognized as saving the world. he had tremendous courage and stepped up and got the job done and a lot of other people might have wilted under the pressure or might not have done as much as he did yard i think he will be remembered primarily for that. collectively have a big market crash next year -- class i think a grand experiment that prove the fed is not very effective at producing growth. classes and that the point where you say they are not responsible for driving asset bubbles, but they still have been affected him pop them the bubbles. look at what bernanke did. >> but he popped the bubble by stepping on the gas and throwing us all to the windshield. stepping on the brace and throwing us through all the windshields, enormously high
unemployment. you are taking a sledgehammer as a way to break a bubble. the housing bubble existed around the world over many monetary regimes. it is a little hard to just blame our monetary regime for housing bubble and it occurred on almost every other part, except japan, which had gone through and enormous recession and germany, because both companies are exporting capital as opposed to importing capital. >> he say the fed has essentially been ineffective on the economy. are you are getting there should be no fed? class know, but i am in the john taylor, it should be very predictable and follow a certain set of rules and not get far out i. >> like the ecb. class i think in this. it wast think unreasonable to try the spearmint that was tried. the state of monetary knowledge is ambiguous. both sides, not much agreement about how much of an affected has. to try this experiment at this time is not unreasonable. i think the evidence is that it
>> you are watching "in the loop." good morning. >> it is 26 after the hour, which means bloomberg television is on the markets. on early her eye morning. >> we are about an hour away from the open. right now, futures are pointing to a higher open. a lot of individual company news having to push the index is higher, including saying it is boosting its dividend and increasing share buyback. it is a theme we have heard throughout the week from companies.
>> the question everyone is waiting for is the fed's announcement this afternoon. >> we have the announcement coming out at 2:00 p.m.. ben bernanke will hold his news conference. maybe his final one as fed chairman. ahead of that right now, treasury prices are down. a lot of people are eyeing three percent as the next level to watch for. we also have the dollar stronger. a common theme over the last couple of. the talk intensifies, the fed perhaps looking to curb and taper its bond buying program. also worth mentioning is gold prices elevated before that 2:00 p.m. announcement. all over the fed announcement. thank you. a look at the bloomberg top headlines. the unemployment unexpectedly in three four-year low months. it stands at 7.4%, still above hours. the bank of england said they
will consider raising interest rates when unemployment falls to seven percent. a higher year-over-year second- quarter results, they missed analyst estimates. a company posted earnings of one dollar and $.57 per share him up from a year earlier. the company also raised its full-year profit forecast. the holiday season got a whole for a couple people who won last night's 600 and 56 million dollar -- crested the when you go >> unfortunately, no. >> david marcus from paypal probably one. -- won. butone of us did congratulations to those a did. in the meantime, we are waiting for economic data. mike mckee, you have got a pretty on the numbers. >> you know, the housing market is the economy at the moment.
everybody is looking for strength. the fed screwed up earlier by talking about tapering sending mortgage rates higher. we saw a reaction in the housing market. we do not know if we us in recovery yet because congress screwed up and shut down the government. we have not had housing numbers for three-month. three months worth coming up in a moment. it will tell us a lot about the direction of the economy heading into 2014. if anything will move the markets ahead of the fed decision, it will probably be this. >> interesting. we have not seen the numbers in such a long time. it could be really different than what everyone is nothing. we have not had a case in so long. thus it will be interesting because we will start with september numbers and those could be down. we saw a delayed reaction as mortgage rates rose. do they accelerate up through november? we will get a revision to august. we will see what effect the fed had and whether or not the economy has been able to recover since then. >> we will find out in a few moments. housings expected to be at
955,000 for the month of november. building permits, also an indication of how healthy the marking it -- the market is, is expected to be at 990,000. in your area in california, there has been a huge rebound in housing. >> tremendous. really big year- over-year numbers, in someplace 20% increases with big numbers to start with. >> if you own a house, probably pretty happy at that moment. here come the numbers with better than expected in housing starts. 1.0 9 million starts. 955 thousand is where economists had expected. that is a growth of 23% month on .onth also much better than expected, surpassing the million mark. 990,000 is where economists expected building permits to be. from the priorll month. that is again less than what economists expected. take a look at how futures are trading right now.
those building on some of gains right now not by much. >> is that a pun building on billy numbers? that happened. 0.2%, so expect that will likely filter through until, of course, we get the fed meeting in the announcement. that will be the big market mover. what do you see in these numbers? >> you see exactly what we were looking for, a drop-off in august. you can see the month of august and september, housing starts fell and then they recovered big-time. a huge percentage for the month of november. it puts us over the one million mark. we have only been over that one time previously this year since the 2008 recession began. we look at the numbers. over one million, almost 1.1 million homes started in the month of november. at an annual rate. it tells you the housing market is beginning to recover. not only that, it was broadly based. family not just single-
homes. also multifamily. normally, we see them alternate going up and down. each of them up 20%, single- family homes up 21%. in housingt strength in november and that will put the thumb on the side of maybe beginning to taper on the fed today, maybe not decisive, but it makes the argument the economy is starting to pick up again. is the fedsk you likely to look at today's data and change their mind on what they said going into meetings? >> no, they want to look at the emulation of data. one of the things i wanted to do was stimulate the mortgage market with eyeing of mortgage bonds, keep the mortgage rates lower, and it did not work when they started talking about taper before. they may want to hold off a little longer to make sure what they set out to do continues. >> thank you very much. interesting stuff. 12 days of christmas. ,here are 12 days of bitcoin thanks to matt miller's fine work. you have been following the eighth -- the eight days.
>> i am not tired at all. >> what is the latest in your venture? >> today, -- >> swans are singing. intoday, what i am looking , have you seen my tie? because of said day, i thought it would be interesting to take a look at the ben bernanke of bitcoin, as it were. guy or itamoto is the could be a girl or a group, the person who invented it point. >> we do not know if this person like? e e -- >> we have no idea. in 2009, bitcoin, 0.1. we are not even at 1.0. gavin was named lead director of the bitcoin foundation because
doing a lot of other things. finally, moved onto other things. set this via e-mail because no one has ever had a ace to face conversation with a guy who laid the foundations for this currency on which i have been living. went dark and stopped posting anything. the name has not been seen online. if the character existed, a character is not present online right now. >> exactly. hen completely dark. >> japanese? >> we do not. men -- the name is meaningful. means, i believe, something like a well-intentioned person. wise.ns clear thinking or i forgot my japanese for a moment. means thinking clearly inside the foundation, which is omission impossible old. >> it is indeed. we have nothat -- really talked much about how
bitcoin works and the next bitcoin is so much harder to create than the last. >> that is the key. that is why i make this connection to said day. of a really the opposite modern central bank. modern central banks do everything they can to debase their current css as possible. they are in a war to print as much as they possibly can. only 21 million bitcoins can be printed altogether. they always have. banke said the central must be trusted not to debase the currency. this is what you need for it to work. but currencies have a history full of breaches of that trust. eventuallyal bank tries to debase its currency and eventually print as much money as it tacitly could. >> yes. because it is stimulus. at the same time, they want to make sure currencies are if a blessed awful as well. >> that is our official policy. we have a strong dollar policy.
strong.o not want >> strong dollar is not the same as stable dollar. >> you want it to be worth less and less in relation to other major currencies so we can sell more of our goods. it is the same way japanese and europeans want. >> do they want to stay anonymous? >> i guess so. not only has he gone dark and not talk to anybody or e-mailed anyone, but he has not bent the massive bitcoin fortune he mined from the beginning from the genesis block. i have read on a blog from this us this chart, or from whom i took this chart, he has identified 900 houston, at so shebitcoins that's it mind. the bitcoins have not been spent. they are just sitting in his wallet somewhere. >> creating scarcity value. >> that is right. one of the things about bitcoin
is a lot of it will be lost and a lot of it will be hoarded, like this. that creates even more of the opposite effect of a printed money effect. i have about 0.42 bitcoins less, -- left, worth less and less because the chinese have been trying to kill this. to bitcoin sort of works oppose their power and their currency power. anything thatke takes away their power. >> thank you. >> it has been a pleasure. >> coming up, as ben bernanke prepares to give up will likely be his last press conference a s fed chairman, we will see his legacy ahead of the federal reserve. and the trading debut today after pricing at the bottom of its range. a preview of a place that in the nation's second largest movie theater chains. -- chain.
>> ben bernanke will be holding what is likely his last fomc news conference. his chairmanship is already one of the most consequential and controversial we have seen in said history. withter cook joins us now more on his legacy. the debate over the back -- the bernanke years is already underway. >> that is right. take your pick. your party has some of that during the course of the program. ben bernanke's actions touched every single american and it has not in boring for him. that is not what he expected when he took over in 2006. the handoff was pretty smooth.
instead, he saw the worst financial crisis since the great depression ripped up the feds playbook, all these extraordinary actions, quantitative easing, you name it. his decisions have been second- guessed. he is credited with keeping the economy afloat. the questions are in terms of historical times. in does he get look back at terms of his legacy. we cannot answer the question yet because a lot will depend on how the fed unwinds. extraordinary steps. we are not. . >> what matters is how all of these moves have affected everyday americans and have a feel about the fed and how they handle this. as bernanke is the first to say he has not met his own targets for the recovery. .orrowing costs declined the rate dropping to a 3.68%. they have been on the rise since then. you have got other numbers that affect americans. stock portfolios have surged. the s&p 500, almost three times
despite the dire warnings from critics, inflation is not a disk -- not a threat. deflation is a risk right now. bernanke will become the first fed chairman in 35 years to leave with a jobless rate higher than when he arrived. the fed holds almost $4 trillion in assets. the byproduct of all the quantitative easing, how that is unwound will largely determine the final legacy on ben bernanke. he would be the first to admit that. >> stand by with me. with hiss now perspective is the chief economist at northern trust, formerly with the girl reserve bank of chicago. also, tom keene with us as well. you have been tweeting out all morning long on your show about views on the legacy of bernanke. peter said it well. there is a general view that what the fed did help wall street and help stocks, but it did not help.
>> carl tannenbaum has a history of this, working within the midwest. i would suggest the prism of what chairman bernanke has done in the midwest is very different than the island of manhattan. what is the difference? class it is fair to say the results of economic recovery have been unevenly is generated. there is hard work to do that. income inequality has grown. if you are fortunate enough to have a stock portfolio, it looks a lot different than if you had lost your job and are still looking. i think the federal reserve and chairman bernanke have had this philosophy, that it is entered to try and get economic activity going, try to create the conditions for a wealth effect that would create higher levels of economic activity for everyone, and then see the income distribution issues solved naturally. we are still waiting for the second leg, but there is hope it will come. >> we talked about mohammed yesterday and the whole notion about what the impact has been, and i thought it was interesting.
they really pointed to income equality. look at what he said. >> business investment has not picked up and therefore our growth is not on steady footing. meantime, we have gone back to the old model of promoting growth through the asset channel, which has been income distribution. the key issue is for the fed, and more portly, for the rest of washington. the fed has been trying its utmost with imperfect tools. west of washington, it has to get its act together and have an environment that promotes business investment and private led growth. that is the objective. >> this is perfect and it is because he has studied in england. a balance sheet analysis where americans are income state analysis. he went back to the idea of, we did asset remedies, all this bond moving around, to fix the problem. no surprise, moving bonds all
around helps three zip codes in manhattan and it does not help carl tannenbaum's world in chicago. >> you have mentioned, the fed the longeparing for goodbye. one of the things mohammed said was, even if there is tapering, there will be a package of other add-ons the fed will have to tell the markets. one of them will be forward guidance. >> important will that be? very important. as we transition to the top. i want to point out the federal reserve does not have the tools to solve all of the nations problems. it has operated in the face of rather narrow fiscal choices that is limited not only the impact of the fed's activity, but also to, esther bijan all elements. given the limitations, the fed has done fairly well. given some of the news we have gotten in the last few weeks on ,nemployment and retail sales
it seems like the fed has created the momentum that is conducive to broader and more positive economic results. we think about the fed actions and the bernanke legacy, what would things have been like had they not taken these actions? it is always present. that is the only way we can judge whether they have been effective. >> one other thing about his legacy that is important to remember is despite the debate over his actions and things like that, one thing we will have gone from ben bernanke that we be able toe, we will asking questions at the news conference today about these issues. to do that when he first started his term. that will be a lasting lately -- legacy. >> will we see more transparency? will you be sitting in the media with them? hope.i can only at least the c-span cameras are
in there. she was tasked by ben bernanke of handling the communications. she has been intimately involved. it is no way she the gene -- it is no way the genie is going back in the bottle. will see moree transparency from the fed. hard to imagine she will move to aggressively early on. class we have got to wrap it here but thank you so much. the chief economist at northern trust and thanks to tom and peter. we will be back in two minute. ♪
joining me is one of the people behind the discovery, as well as the market majors -- market makers anchor. this is a huge shake up here in the billionaire world. class it is. thank you for having me. good morning. imagine waking up one morning and you are no longer -- you go from being the 20th richest man in the world to not even in the top 100 or 200 very as of right now, david thompson, loud of the top 300 billionaire rankings we put together. that is probably a sobering reality. >> tell us the numbers. for those who are not tracking these day by day. questionnaire. the family had a fortune of fort $27 billion that,
reasons of tradition and history, you could call it even sexism if you wanted to be controversial, it was always something traditionally that was given to david thompson in any kind of rankings. he was the chairman of thomson reuters, families biggest investment. he was the patriarch of the current generation of thompson's. according to the way the fortune was divided up, first among the three children and then downward to the severn -- seven children of those three children, he only ended up with a stake of 14%. cousin has a 23% holding. a discoveredecome billionaire who is now the richest woman in canada. >> the richest woman in canada, a fortune of $6.5 billion. is youwant to say here cannot understate the importance
of this reporting. maybe it is not resonating in america the latest north of the border, but what i said on twitter yesterday still stands. it rewrites the canadian history books. thomson, the guy who bought the times of london, now owned by rupert murdoch news corp., put canada on the media map by owning the times. he had an empire of 200 newspapers, but the times was the crown jewel. everyone always assumes ken thompson, his son, inherited 100% of his fortune and david thompson inherited 100% of the family fortune, which includes a 55% stake. this is not the case that this is the way it has been written north of the border for decades. >> a longtime belief that these were the aristocracy was true.
>> exactly. >> is the money. >> imagine waking up in the morning and finding out you are not rich. he knew. we have printed this way, bloomberg billionaires index put david thompson as 20th in the world's richest people and forced to the same thing. here, the chronicler of canada's wealthiest people, and similarly , he wrote that ken thompson passed on the fortune to david thompson and that is the way it worked. >> yugo is making the point he .new >> of course. there is some untruths best left undisturbed. out, this has almost become fact in canada. it is -- it's the to the country's richest family. then we discovered this woman
who many people never heard of partly because her last name is not thompson, lives in a lovely house in victoria overlooking and lives a very quiet life but is sitting ounces $.5 billion, invested in very quirky industries. fm radio in ontario cottage company -- >> this is what i often find myself listening to what i go north.d drive up >> classic rock radio. >> we can talk about canadian billionaires all day. eric certainly could. >> thank you so much. eric and hugo. i want to tell you quickly about a piece of breaking news that came out. fort, two thousand 14 north american pretax profit lower than in 2013. you do the the stock is down. a bit of a surprise given what a role fort has been next year.
be lower than it was in 2013. the company sees your results improving. asia-pacific results of primus and as last year. a stern back to our top story this morning, the matter what ben bernanke decisive of tapering, it is already one of the most consequential and controversial in fed history. >> more on the latest, just in time for the holidays. you wrote this morning that ben bernanke of worst boyfriend. >> i'm here to stage an intervention. ben bernanke is just not that into you. he is clear he will make a decision and the committee will make a decision when they get together at their meetings. they will make a call. they will testify in front of
congress and say, maybe within the next couple of meetings, even though we will make a willion, and the markets freak out and say that is a clear signal he is communicating with us. >> usa and women read too much into words? -- you are saying women read too much into words? >> both genders do. he is like a spurned lover. >> he is exactly right. the problem is the mark critz -- the markets got used to console he was bring in the year, i love you, baby. >> there is a historical problem. central banks all over the world got used to for guidance and dropping hints. slightly more clear and slightly less muddled over the course of his tenure. they have come to expect and do a little bit of criminology.
devil's advocate. i havernanke had said, said exactly what i mean and what i will do, but the markets and then they have to come out and try to explain this situation. look at theseyou things that are supposedly hints that markets are reacting to, they are couched in so much language, "i do not really know. " >> ben bernanke is for joy dollars worth of purchases at tiffany's. >> that is a big diamond ring. greatflooding those with affection and love, as we have been is guessing all morning. >> in june, he said, by the end of the year, if the economy continues, we could be tapering, which was a specific statement, coupled with, when we are done, the unemployment rate will be at
evan percent. the problem was the market at that as, "we are going out to dinner saturday night." them, heid not take was very disappointed. >> there is another problem, which is that habits last a long time. people trading now, developing .hese habits the fed also has to make fiscal policy. it is the only body capable of making fiscal policies. it has to watch unemployment more closely than it did work. -- before. for now? do you see a path out? >> i do not, but it was not always like this. class it was not.
part of the problem is the fed was looking at more things because it is the only game in town doing anything about the unemployment. >> a problem that did not occur before is they succeeded. ben bernanke wanted people to take more risks and they took a lot of risks. when they see a hand to the policy will change, they want to pull back and do not want to do it until the last minute because they keep wanting those returns, but they need to move quickly. >> how much do you think bernanke is concerned about his legacy? >> he is smart enough to know he cannot control his legacy now. it is what it is. it will be dependent on janet how to get out of this extraordinary policy. if they manage that, people will look back and say, maybe he did as good as he could have. the results of those policies you have got coming, crushing numbers, costco cutting numbers,
and the places where -- >> the problem is, it is counterfactual. you do not know what would've happened. this was a tremendously unusual situation. >> thank you very much. good stuff as always. moving to the world of talent agencies. official word silver rate -- lake buying for more than two main dollars. more on this. tell us more about what silver lake wants from ing? >> we have the official release. silver lake buying ing, one of the biggest agency deals ever, really. it will create a real juggernaut in the industry. have the release, there are various questions unanswered and a lot of it has to do with financial terms, how much debt william morris is taking on to get the deal. how much equity silver lake is putting into the deal. those are important questions. at the end of the day, what they
would like to see is long-term success. the financial times, in part, will dictate whether or not this company will be successful over the long term. also important, there will be a culture clash. we know emanuel has got a pretty big character and ego, and he will be taking on agents that are in a completely different business, the business of sport licensing. we might have to see how the culture has come together. a lot of agents, where the two countries overlap, are probably asking themselves whether or not they will have a job going forward. , ithis financial market usually means shedding employees. >> let me ask you about the situation and the taking out of all this debt. if you think -- why is it a
have >> if you do not enough financial assets to back up the cash flow -- >> money. >> that is true. i'm sure you have insurance policies for that. if you look at their financial assets, what is valuable about the college sports business is the fact these are long-term licensing contracts that do provide some kind of stability for lenders, some kind of confidence for them to make the loan against. at the end of the day, some of the cash flow may be going to pay salaries. we do not know exactly how these companies calculate the numbers because they are private at the end of the day. there is a trust element between .he lenders >> thank you for staying on that story.
moving and shaking this hour. jamie dimon. this has nothing to do with government finds, london wales, any of that. it is about the family holiday card this year area check it out. not your traditional shot at the family in front of the fireplace. pretty cool. we see an epic indoor tennis match featuring their wife and daughters and son-in-law and the family dog. cori, look at jamie's back end. a big tennis player. class apparently. you can buy a new one when it is done. >> i have interviewed jamie dimon for my book. book? >> yes, that you conveniently have. in this book, he mentioned telling his daughters about the day he got fired. i want to read for you one part of what he said about the day he got fired. ", i went home and sat
my three little girls down and they were probably -- you can read more if you want to know what his girls responded to him. you can read more on bloomberg.com. >> a tough conversation to have with kids. during the recession, my kids were coming of the age where they were starting to hear the word and they thought it was one of the meanest things you could say. they watch this cartoon, a pixar movie, "the incredible's." one time in the movie, they tell someone, you are fired. daughters said that means you do not need to use your cell phone anymore, can i have it? that is where kids heads are these days. coming up, time to make the
>> fedex reported earnings short of wall street expectations. shocking. joining me now is julie hyman and the senior analyst -- logistics. let me start with you. what went off the rails? class part of the issue was holiday timing. because fedex is relying more of a very specific time, the holiday season, specifically, the e-commerce
thatay shoppers season, was pushed later this year because of the late thanksgiving. cyber week and cyber monday pushed into december, meaning the third quarter from november, the second quarter, which they just reported. sounds like part of the mishap to do with the timing of the holiday. >> what about you? what do you see in these numbers? class i agree. , theiggest miss we saw benefit from e-commerce and holiday time. he's being pushed off because of the compressed holiday week following thanksgiving. that is not necessarily a miss. back pushing the earnings to handle volume almost double due to e-commerce rush.
-- the bad news is expectations were wrong and maybe not looking at the cost to prepare for santa. santa? ere is no do not tell me that. it is a mystery. a three percent year-over-year sales growth. two percent the previous quarter. whenever i see companies push i'm talking about business growth. >> they expect for the most part growth to accelerate. that is pretty much in line with most economists on the street. you will see the slow growth week -- economy and the slow recovery in north america and around the world. .hat will benefit fedex >> i should mention also we -- the trend we saw for fedex, and
there has been a trend across these types of shipping companies, you saw the trend for people preferring not to spend the extra money for people to get packages overnight. >> fedex, that is their big business. >> yes, even though fedex has been bumping along and doing ok, so they are not getting that margin from the overnight shipping, but they are trying to get that market back. >> i just want to correct something cory said. there really is a santa out there for anybody. there really is. >> it was a question. i am concerned. we have seen forward lowering expectations. companies, ibm, cisco, seen declines in year-to- year sales. fedex three percent sales declining growth rates and the market off to the races like things are wonderful.
a really big disconnect. our other big story of the day, the fed, it is the difference there. i wonder if fedex, given all the stimulus and not really growing much, is a bigger concern than we are thinking right now. >> another thing i should mention. you heard fred smith talked about on the call. he said when you look at online sales as a percentage of all sales, not get to 10% until 2017. on the one hand, that is not getting here as quickly as you might inspect. at -- as long as the growth is there, fedex will capture. not the biggest portion of overall sales. >> some companies, you talk about what the holy grail is for some companies. you think about coke and pepsi. the holy grail is, where do i find the zero calorie sweetener that will make code -- sodas taste the same. if i did just take the analogy for logistics and package companies, the holy greg -- holy grail is, how do i will -- deliver packages on the same
day? that is how i will grant -- win the race. >> yes. also, investing in your network. fedex spent considerable money .efreshing networks 30% more fuel efficient. that is going into the express bottom line they noted on their call. they are saving three percent on fuel consumption because of the reflection -- refresh fleet. tnt,nies like fedex, ups, they have the scale to be formal competitors on the global scene. only expresst services. logistics services. they are a one-stop shopping place for people that have logistics needs globally. >> three point death three percent year-over-year sales growth. 14% net income growth. you want to make more money with
every single quarter and improve the margins. i wonder, do you see a lot more that they have left to do? 1.7 billion dollar profit improvement plan that will go out through fiscal year 2016. we do not really know how far along they are in that area they are refreshing internet era they they will do rate increases for all businesses. that, coupled with low single- digit gdp growth should provide high revenue growth for fedex and some operating margin improvements as well, given cost initiatives. , asenior logistics analyst well as julie hyman. thank you very much. here is a look at some of the top tech stories. $2.2 billion for the mobile phone subsidy. it makes services cheaper and enables carriers give services
to the poor. leading to a record number of americans in poverty to abandon land lines altogether. another factor, low costs. 35% of the folks make at least double the poverty level and do not have a landline. fort is really interesting people below the poverty level. mobile phone is literally their lifeline to getting a job, to essentially getting what they need. in many cases, they will forgo other services but keep their mobile phone. >> increasingly, people, more and more services offered coming to the phone and the ability to do just about anything. >> the question is, how much -- the controversy is, how much of the $2.2 billion is really going to help subsidize access to phones to the poor and how much is going to the carriers. >> the digital divide, people access, income
equality on the show all day. here is another thing, where the opportunities for income investment and not being poured are closer and closer tied to technology. you cannot get into the technology of you cannot get online. if you cannot on the phone, you cannot -- i have a landline but i never use it. i only use my mobile phone. same for you? >> occasionally. there is a quality issue. you can hear someone all the time on landline. have a landline. isn't the mobile penetration in the u.s., isn't it only something like 64%? a lot of people -- that or is that smartphone? >> a number of mobile phones is the number of -- greater than the number of americans. hundred four percent penetration. all the people walking around with two phones constantly. thank you very much. we will catch all of the latest media and technology news every day of the week only on bloomberg west. >> just a few minutes away from
>> welcome back. it is 26 minutes after the hour. lumbar television is on the markets. class right now, it looks like stocks are set to open higher. we are seeing gains across the rest of the world. asian markets, all advancing before the federal reserve makes on announcement at 2:00 p.m. the pace of its bond buying program. slow it down, taper. let's take a look at treasuries.
prices are down and yields are higher. 2.87%. the dollar weakening -- strengthening by just a little bit. stronger versus the yen. oil prices still holding below $98 a barrel. 9750 before the 2:00 p.m. announcement and the 2:30 news conference by ben bernanke. we are back in 30 minutes. >> thank you. let's count down to the open. the only trades you need to know about. corey joins in as well. giant said it would write off more than $1 billion of costs related to an unsuccessful well. it announced it made a significant oil discovery in the deepwater gulf of mexico. the manufacturer that makes stuff for ibm and lack berry, earnings rose 11%. they also sell their after mark of services is this and get $75 million for the business.
we expect the sale to close in the third quarter. >> i have got number eight. a -- an insurance company. allowing it to improve its financial for stability and explore issues that have negatively affected -- affected business. class and, the second-biggest homebuilder reporting a 32% jump. positive results fueled by higher deliveries in selling prices. weble digit revenue growth. saw some good housing numbers this morning. class apple, the maker of computers, phones, and bloomberg west stories, trading lower. the world's largest phone companies, will spend more on subsidies to boost smartphones to as much as 42%. didn't mention anything specifically about an agreement with apple. a highly anticipated offer with apple iphones. class number five is general mills, the maker of cheerios cereal, despite slightly lower revenue.
the general mills ceo says they were hurt by higher ingredient costs as well as slower food and beverage sales. class groupon, a sales site teaming up with borderlinx. groupon said the partnership will allow to provide a broader selection of deals and easily slip shipped them to customers in canada. .> number three, the big giant i want to look for replacement of ceo steve ballmer. they were anticipating finishing the search sometime next year. john thompson, the outside director conducting the search. 100 toof candidates from 20. >> making progress. adex, the company reported smaller than expected 14% and boosted its earnings growth forecast for the year. it said the record share buyback land it announced in october has
been helping to drive profits. is forward.e the automaker plans to introduce 23 new vehicles next year. the cost of bringing them to market will lead to a decline in earn $7ax but will billion next year after an estimated $8.5 billion in predeath pocket for 2013. it is time for the call. the markets have opened. let's bring in the senior equity strategist at wells fargo advisors. his call is that the fed will likely not taper >> if you look at the central tendencies, i think the fed is way too optimistic. something new.s they tend to be over optimistic. i certainly think they are in
2014. >> what about the results from fedex? then we have the ford numbers today. do you think that impacts the fed at all? >> in terms of fedex, they are in the industrials. airfreight -- that stock, that industry group has had a big move. what that report told me was that all it did was confirm that we are in a modest growth, modest inflation environment. we have been there the last couple of years and we will be there the last couple of years. i don't think that will sway the fed much. global activity is ok, it is not great. 3.5% udp in the states at least based on our work. -- gdp in the states at least
based on our work. -up. have a round businesses favor cheaper shipping options. then you bring in other industrials. for them, it all comes down to muted capital spending. mining customers are reducing spending. high-margin parts remain under pressure. it not good news for industrials. >> go-ahead. has beenk cap-ex lacking. i think it will improve a little bit. the global economy in europe and in the world will improve a little bit. improve to be continued to be some headwinds. as much as they have lagged for much of this recovery, they have some upside potential here.
if you think the global economy is going to be better, you will definitely want to be taking a look at some parts of these industrials. >> what could surprise us next year? a littlek we could see bit better news coming out of europe. there is a lot of pessimism in europe right now. i think you will see a little better performance there. half the revenues in the s&p 500 come from overseas. overall,ou will see, the emerging world stabilize and maybe do a little bit better -- china and india will be problems. if we can get a little bit better growth here and in europe and a little bit better in the emerging world, that it's really going to help the profitability's of our companies here. that is that we get to our five percent earnings growth number for next year. we are not wildly optimistic.
i think we will see about a seven percent total return on the stock market next year. it pales in comparison to last year, but it is still good. >> thank you. nkin brands ceo to invest just in time for business. >> save me some. >> two of the biggest icons in the music industry in the headlines. we will tell you what the boss is up to. beyoncé's new album. ♪
those goodies this morning. people have asked this -- why expand out to the west coast now? >> we have got so many stores east of the mississippi. we can still build another 3000 east of the mississippi. >> you have over 10,000 now? 10,500.lly, 7,598.united states, we are traditionally an east coast brand. we announced we were going to expand to california. we sold out southern california. you won't see the story -- 2015. until it takes a while to build. about --, a lot more internationally.
>> do you have a number for next year? >> the top end of our range. 360. next year, i would expected to be higher. it is a fairly fast pace. >> this is an interesting fact. you have 515 stores here in the big apple. that is almost double what starbucks as here in new york city. we always think there is a starbucks on every corner. there is almost double -- >> we had the 500th store back in july. we think we can have a lot more. manhattan we think we are under- stored. >> you're not oversaturated? >> we think just about every borough in new york we could have more stores. our franchisees have done a very good job in new york. we are very happy.
you will see a lot more store. >> as you were signing new franchisees on the west coast, what do you see in a successful franchise partner? >> you want people who have operated in this kind of business before. multiunit retailing. clearly, the right resources. it is all about operations. if there was one thing i am proud about in the last five years it is that we have improved our operations capability of both our franchisees and/or corporate staff enormously. -- ourr corporate staff corporate staff enormously. our scores have gone up year by year. with theally pleased percentage increase in those scores. >> my first job was working at a dunkin' donuts. >> was it? should you have disclosed that? are you biased?
must not up in such a great job since you aren't still there. [laughter] >> it was my first job. what i remember when i was there, the morning was the busiest time. changed?has that mix how much more do you rely on coffee sales? how much more do you rely on sandwiches? >> beverages keeps going up. morning business keeps going up. our afternoon up sales on the back of bakery sandwiches. great margins for our franchisees. we do want to keep expanding the rest of the day. we are focused on the pm -- taking it into the evening. we are going to launch our new loyalty program next year and
that will enable us to leverage morning traffic and move it to the rest of the day. >> loyalty program. >> we will incentivize you to go different times of day. --i am on the paley a thing paleo thing. talking about loyalty programs -- they have not always been successful in your industry. i am picturing a line of homer simpsons. i think it is true in one respect. sr is behindd -- q retail. we are one of the leaders in the field. we launched our mobile up and we're hoping that everyone will use the mobile app to send gifts. mobile.dunkin card by we have taken the mobile app and we are building in loyalty behind it and we believe that
will improve our frequency, average ticket. but you are right. this industry has not been in the whole digital place. >> the ceo of mcdonald's admitted that they have been way behind on digital. when you look at a company like that and how they have fallen behind, what is the reason for that? why is this industry not as quick? >> i think it is the way it is served. i used to work at blockbuster and papa john's. we knew everything about every customer, because you had to rent out a video were deliver a pizza. you had the name address and all that. this industry has never had to do that. every consumer was just another person. we have got to get beyond that. we have got to get into the world of one-to-one marketing. will take a real big increase i would expect. a -- is not really rg and
our g&a. we do this with our franchisees. the trick to all of this -- we installed new surveillance franchiseesur agreed -- we are adding this digital technology. it comes out of our advertising funds that are franchisees pay into and they see this as an important way of marketing in the future. >> why mcdonald's? why your entire industry has had -- it has to be a partnership with an incredibly disparate group of franchisees. >> it comes down to relationships. it is a world-class relationship. if you get that right,
everything will work out. >> why are you closing in china? >> we did not get it right. >> what? >> we didn't get the model. we over localized. i was in the u.k. yesterday -- opening our first store their. re. the model we have in the u.k. is similar to the u.s. we over localized in china. gived not get the -- sufficient income and dedicated support. descending on the donuts right now. it will get ugly. [laughter] >> make you for stopping by. chairman and ceo of dunkin brand. ♪
she dropped an album out of the blue. not everybody is happy. target is now refusing to sell the self-titled album because they have had an exclusive relationship with beyoncé for quite some time. so they thought. joining us now is josh rabinowitz. this target have a point here? >> it does. it is the battle between physical and digital. digital is winning. it is a clever endeavor. on friday the 13th. good luck for beyoncé. not such great luck for target. >> so they just drop this out of the blue. >> no warning. >> they wanted to keep this thing on the sly. >> i'm not sure about their thoughts about target, but they certainly kept it on the sly. they took a bite out of apple, if you will. >> really?
a bite out of apple? could've been some sort of legal action if target had known this that happen. >> they were very clever, very secretive. >> itunes is almost half of the music market now. target ranks third or fourth. beyoncé had a little bit more leverage your because it is not as if target dominates the music selling industry now. some have criticized this. can do this.ist you have to be a beyoncé to pull this off. >> exactly. or a jt. no pre-marketing at all. usually she is involved in something that is heavily premarket it. she is really the queen right now. >> not queen, but king is ron anchoring, these
days. this whole marketing campaign has been very, very creative, funny. there have been so many different variations on this. one was an appearance with robin thicke. what do you take out of this? >> i think it is genius. i think it is really clever. i would be happy to do it. certainly the music component is always great, particularly with this robin thicke initiative that they did. they made it brilliant. >> is that going to change the way some movies are now released? >> i think so. these kind of social media, digital things that are going on. think about the stuff that saturday night live has done with justin timberlake. records aregood new albums or whatever we are supposed to call them. it new music from bruce springsteen in january.
factcover the disturbing that it is the 30th anniversary of "born in the usa." a big record. a big release. >> high hopes. a lot of outtakes, covers. he writes a lot of music, a lot of music he has not used in other albums. was written usa" for another album. >> what is he doing here? what has he done right here? >> he is a credible artist. he has done right by his fans. his live concerts are epic -- sometimes three hours long. he tours continuously. >> thank you, josh. that does it for us today on "in the loop."
chance the fed will begin tapering. 2.87% is your 10-year yield. we will keep an eye on the reactions. what about commodities? we are looking at gold. gold futures are moderately higher before the fed decision. what would a long-awaited a pronouncement me for gold? -- announcement -- tapering announcement mean for gold? people want to see inflation at against ald acts hedge against inflation. fed turnve seen the more and more concern about disinflation. that is what the gold bugs want.
i must say, the economists polled by bloomberg, they don't see any taper today. we have a chat room this morning that was quiet until one person put in the chat, what do you think about the taper? it lit up with a million answers. does anybody on this board believe there will be a taper today? no'ss 50 nose in a row -- , there will be no taper. i think it would surprise the gold market if there was a taper. very going to be interesting to see. if the fed does taper, that means the economy is heating up. in essence, that is pretty good for the bulls. that would provide inflation at the end of the day. it will be interesting to see the knee-jerk reaction. what happens today, according to the people in the chat room, gold will go a bit lower.
what it will be a month or year from now. that means the economy is getting better, right? >> you have a chart for us. what does it show you? >> what is really interesting about this is that qe1 and qe2 -- the debts that the federal reserve bought. gold went up. the fed is putting a lot of money into the market. in qe3, the reverse happened. it was the biggest buy of government and mortgage securities, gold went down pretty much the entire time. it gets back to the fact of -- is the fed worried more about inflation or about the economy picking up? >> if inflation does go up, that would be a sign that the economy is improving -- or at least that is what a lot of people are pushing toward. if the focus on the taper is really what is driving
everybody, what else could or should traders and investors be looking at as a sidebar concern? talke of the things we about, once we get through tapering, we understand what the fed is going to be doing. quite honestly, even though they are talking about transparency, the markets do not seem to understand. once we understand what the new fed is going to do, then the focus goes on global inflation, what is going on in china, india , is europe actually seeing a recovery? i think the market will focus away from the fed and more on the rest of the world. >> back to the fundamentals then. ♪
bloombergom headquarters in new york, this is "market makers" with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. >> superstars. nuking of the hollywood hills and the sports game. the biggest talent agency on the planet. -- just one week until christmas. you have not finished your gift shopping at. bigger bargains and sales galore or our retailers doomed to post holiday discounts? smart cars