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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  January 27, 2014 2:00am-4:01am EST

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>> asian stocks sell all shares for the most in seven months with emerging markets anxiety deepens. >> of more warnings about the risk from developing markets. an exclusive interview with trichet. world, the most vulnerable countries and considered as potential problems. >> at&t as said to top the telecom acquisitions. with the vodafone. ♪
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>> welcome to "countdown." i am caroline hyde. breaking across the terminal. do intend to make an offer for vodafone and we were -- running a story earlier. talking to regulators about potential takeover with the vodafone off. >> it is no surprise was that at&t has made it clear they are looking across the atlantic to make purchases and they want to expand their market. you have sprint and t-mobile really hitting them hard in terms of price and in the united states. they wanted to come to europe and much speculation with the vodafone. maybe some other european companies. >> when of the story first broke at the end of october according to people familiar, bloomberg ran a story.
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a statement has been released that has quashed speculation that an attempt to make an offer for vodafone. our international correspondent has been of the story this morning. hans, quashing speculation? >> it looks like the speculation the at&t is going to make a bid for vodafone is over and it looks final. that makes them beating in and davos all thatin more important. what did they talk about? a potential bid for ee. we know at&t is on the move, on the hunt and they are looking for assets. on the wireless side, they are facing stiff price competition potentially a price war back in the states. when you see other movement going on especially t-mobile and sprint, both really making a push to eat into at&t's market share. one thing that is interesting
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about at&t not interested in vodafone is the timeline of no deal until the end of february these to be scotched. remember, at&t and vodafone cannot really enter into negotiations or have some sort of final deal until vodafone entirely unwound itself from verizon. the date was february 21, $130 billion deal. that is in material. the love for potential bid for a company and in the european union from at&t and we no longer have to have that falls timeline. it could happen any day. this adds more urgency to the story potentially more speculation and an opportunity for all those here at bloomberg to do some more reporting a hit the fossil stop i hope a matt campbell is a back -- and hit the phones. -- i hope matt campbell is back. >> they could be interested in other companies such as the spanish cable operator.
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it is such a busy sector for m &a, the most busy globally. >> we could've connected the dots earlier that it may not have been an ideal match. a is looking to expand with the potential their sixth line, the cable this is aware at&t was interested in only the wireless side. this idea that vodafone is in discussions talking about taking them over could mean that the just vodafone and at&t were not a good fit because vodafone wants to do wireless and fixed lines and cable. there's a lot more about the story we do not know than we do know so we will get back to it will have a little bit more at potential it can shed a little bit more clarity on what is happening with all of these deals. , hans nichols. well reacted. quick it is phenomenal. the amount of m&a going on.
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spentear, $260 billion more than 570 deals. the most active. we will continue to see consolidation in europe stopped many investors saying there is too much competition in europe so that is why they are not make as much profit. in america, there are four big players. in europe, hundreds. >> interested in bigger. 5.2 billion dollars, not at the top with the volume. >> let's change in little bit. marketsl about emerging as well because stocks fell to the lowest level in more than four months. are continuing to weaken. manus cranny joins us. put it into context for us. we have been knowing about quantitative easing arraignment ning in.ig
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it seems to be ramping up and people are worried. >> it is like a cocktail. you do not see the kick until of late in the draw in terms -- ok? it kind of hits you. that is what is going on in foreign exchange. that is where the move is coming from or the most the monster fit example of -- the monstrous -- demonstrative example of, the terms of the news with had so far, it is a stampede at the moment. let's look at the stampede. the top three worst performing stock in the argentinian peso and the turkish lira and the rand. the three worst-performing currencies since the start of the year. it is a stampede. invested in not differentiate between the quality.
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that was pimco. ubs and heime with said we are going to be, more discerning and we have these and there's a continuation of the move. then, we are going to get it was systemic and important. the risk currency is something like the south african rand and not like the peso. the currency store in itself is where the big moves are already 13 courses have weekend in the space since there forecast this year. the analyst are going, they are going, look at that. >> everything is being tarnished. >> of the peso. .aking a move get a more liquid. in the meantime, they might follow but in the long run they are the ones to watch. jean-claude tr--
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ichet weighs in. >> probably right in thinking that 2014 would be nicer with and a all over the world little bit more growth than the , theyear and so, again mood is good. you can understand that in the short term. but of course, there is risk of there. it is everywhere. banks are central doing extraordinary things including treasures and zero rate. that signals that things are not yet working normally and in the economy even if they are going. they are also there in the
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emerging world the most vulnerable huntress. -- countries. the emerging economies. still again, some of them because of the change of the global finance and cycle on its way to change, so the most abominable are clip -- of vulnerable are clearly on the international community. >> let's talk tech. apple will be the first to report earnings this week. we will get numbers at 9:30 p.m. that evening. jon ferro will walk us through what we expect. record sales but what about profit because they have been down. >> with the witness of the first half a gain in a year which will beast -- we could expect the first profit again in a year which could be significant. they sold a lot. 65 million false.
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what if i million ipads. -- 65 million phones. a lot of people scrambling to get their hands on that around christmas. a lot of people wanted a piece of that action. that'll get them a nice little bump. also there forecast what is happening in china and the number said they expected to get of the back of the deal with china mobile. the big complaint among some investors and analysts is where is the innovation? iphone, a bigger screen. people want a little bit more. >> you were in the warehouse last weekend i did some investigating journalism. i said what is the biggest selling phone right now, the 5 c followed by the galaxy is selling. the cheaper model is the biggest
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seller in my neck of the books. 5 expectede galaxy s to come out soon, probably april. talk us through where they are innovating. -- 2014 isfor 24 is mobile payments. apple wants a piece. >> they do. some of the numbers are pretty amazing. 400 million, those are the details and they have registered on file with the itunes store. about 21ard have million customers. a lot of these ebanks and credit companies do not even touch. >> and that's a big contrast. >> a massive contrary. people talk about facebook with a one billion users and they can leverage of what they do not have access to your account. you talk about the iphones, imagine going to the shop and here it is paid for.
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you by your clothing. it has the potential to do that. you want to proclaim the death of something, the depths of your wallet so that the bu where it is in the future. a bit competitive in the space. the likes of amazon. there would be a big push into the space. they could make serious money. >> thank you. >> the crisis in the ukraine worsened. ryan chilcote is here with the latest. big 24 hours is coming up. let's look back before we look forward. anddeal to the opposition it does not seem to been taken. >> ukraine feels like it is in limbo. the center of tf, the capital looks more like a wasteland. it is more about the debris left over from last night in anticipation of what is going to
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happen tomorrow. yesterday, we had protests including a coffin being brought through crowds of people. the first time we saw anything like that. a young man. he was shot dead early last week. he was to turn 20's it yesterday. hundreds of people marching. in addition to that, with had clashes in kiev. another government building, the convention center. they had about 300 troops and is concerned there will be a bloodbath as the group of thousands moved. the opposition came in and did -- and negotiated the release or exit of the passage of the police inside so protesters can move in. outside of kiev, trouble continue. buildings blockaded by the opposition. these are not shows. in one case in one city, or 2000 people charging a building and
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they were repelled all on live tv. significant concern. politics. goes to a vote of no confidence. to -- problem it convenes the parliament convenes tomorrow. it'll be the catalyst for what happens on the street. the ukrainian president has offered to of the opposition members places. they said -- it is a presidential republican worth noting. >> of the deputy prime minister. >> is a bit of a slap in the face because it is the most popular politician after the president. they do not have all of the control. oppositionber of the was not offered any postal stop he happens to be the leader of the most militant protesters. are they trying to divide them? >> i guess you could certainly see that.
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an attempt to divide and alienate from protesters. >> thank you very much. investorg chief michael o'sullivan gives his vision. the shapeevent that 2014. that include emerging markets crisis. ♪
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>> welcome back to "countdown." i am mark barton. >> i am caroline hyde. let's talk more about the merging markets. private banking and wealth management chief investment officer for eastern europe and middle east and africa am a michael o'sullivan. talked was about the emerging markets. you preempted amazing time, what you thought the catalyst would be. among them was emerging markets crisis. >> it is opened up murphy's law there. there was ae had -- series of risk on the table with tapering and etc. and we never saw markets react or the move above 20. we had a big move on friday. emerging markets, several things
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have happened. one is less friendly market conditions as people begin to taper. second, you have political situations like turkey and ukraine. you have elections in india and south africa in the next three or four months. the bigger picture, we are at the end of a secular period of growth that is beginning to slow. in markets are pricing that compounded by policy errors in countries like argentina. that is probably what is going on right now. and in the background, are we back into another asian crisis? i think the backdrop is better. europe is beginning to strength. good emi last week and europe. i still regard emerging markets as a valued trap.
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all?oid all the smart -- saidegs -- our last guest ovoid. avoid all? -- our last guest said ovoid it all. >> you have to be careful. at the moment, many of these countries are being charged with the same. what will determine whether this selloff deepens or not is the chinese new year where we already have you typically have a tightening of conditions. what is happening is that the authorities will ease some of the liquidity back into the market. things like the wealth management which is something you talked about earlier on would be results of a market friendly way.
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>> will be back with a michael o'sullivan. private wealth management. we will be talking more about china. the potential slow down and how that is impacting emerging markets. and tensions within japan. but that is next. ♪
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>> the fed will be much more
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gradual and the u.k. will probably follow and europe will be more proactive because of deflation. and on the emerging markets, it will be the same especially with -- [indiscernible] on japan, it will be change. spring withr in the the negotiations. if you do not go away with deflation. >> that is one of the biggest names in the hedge fund world, lagrange. >> let's talk about bigger risk for the year. we have michael o'sullivan. talk us through the rising tension between china and japan in the east china sea and how this might play out. --ck that accuse each other
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>> they have you accuse each other. even on friday, they had an editorial titled "into the drift." may be beingallels misjudged. i think both countries have far too much to lose from this economically. >> japan is already losing. a record trade deficits are we saw exports up. time, bothame countries have strong elements of patriotism. call it what you wish. their place.regain it makes for potentially difficult scenario. there's potentially an international institution to intervene was some kind of thatfic solution whether
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will dole tensions in the long run, i am not quite sure. >> could've the fed slower tapering or not taper this week because the global events? >> i do not think slowing tapering. emerging markets is from the the result of qe, not tapering. they are taking this away. i think central banks, the bank of england would be happy with this little bit of softness, it is good. it takes the edge off inflation. >> you think they could be behind the curve? scenario. risk the bank of england was telling us on a limited when it 7% in q3. we are pretty much there now. -- telling us unemployment would hit 7% in q3. -- we are pretty much in their
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nonstop that is a scenario they have to watch. a better place at the moment. >> that is michael o'sullivan. ♪
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>> i am mark barton. the top headlines. ant has a said it to make offer for vodafone. they made a statement after reports of a potential bid. vodafone has learned the chief executive of at&t met with the top telecom officials at the world economic forum. the government and opposition into thescussing aid city. this is the second day of peace talks in switzerland. the opposition has provided a preliminary lease of 20,000 people it wants to release. the former contractor edward snowden said there is no doubt the u.s. engages in industrial
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espionage stop speaking to german tv, he said if a company like german was found useful information to the u.s. government, the national security agency would use it. ♪ >> welcome back to "countdown." i am mark barton. >> i am caroline hyde. let's move to at&t and tax. are ended speculation that looking to buy vodafone is saying they have no plans to make a specific offer. let's head out to berlin with hans nichols. an update. they have written it off the table. but they ripped it off the table stop there and raises the question what might at&t be interest -- >> they wrote it off the table and it raises the question what might at&t be interested in? an interesting question and we will update you.
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the head of at&t met with the top eu trade and that raises questions about what did they talk about and is at&t answers and something other than vodafone? they put out a statement indicating that the vodafone is not a target. i will read it. confirms it does not intend to make an offer for vodafone and that would event at&t from going after vodafone for six months under u.k. rules." all of the focus comes back to vodafone. vodafone is going to have a lot of cash on their hands because of the deal unwinding with verizon, one should $30 billion deal. if you take -- $130 billion deal. you have to think vodafone is hunting. they are looking for potential takeovers as well. inknow they are interested the spanish cable operator. that means it could be more
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likely that the vodafone makes a bid, a play for ono. 5%. it will be interested to see how vodafone reacts when they start trading later on this morning. >> the cash kyle of a 100 -- pile of $130 billion. thank you. >> in tel aviv. one of the leading players in the field not only because of fiber, our middle east correspondent. there are reports of hackers breaking into a ministry computer. what do we know? >> that is right. according to reports, 15 computers were taken over by hackers. a malicious e-mail attachment for the it's a look for a came from an address at the israeli domestic service. one of the computers taken over
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is used to monitor palestinians in the west bank. they are not admitting it happened a you would not expect them to. i would imagine they would desire tonetanyahu's encourage the industry to support the industry. time, keeping israel's security needs as a priority. ofyou cannot have the growth the world of the economy without the internet. it drives the growth. everything is dependent on one thing -- security. how to protect your bank account, your user files, your systems, electricity and so on. all of that is becoming just a tremendous issue. to be we will manage and balance our security needs with our business opportunities. >> from his comments at the mighteconomic forum, it
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suggest he is inclined to loosen restrictions on export licensing for cyber security firms after a drop in sales last year. he was meeting with israeli startups at the cyber tech event. there are more than 200 of them raising more than $400 million over the last three years. netanyahu will be showing them he supports them in every way that he can as a security is taken into account. >> that was elliott. from not gone unnoticed big international tech companies stop who are we talking about? >> martin lockheed is saying they are looking to invest in a number of technology areas including cyber. last year, ibm. another company $800 million. the reports from the paper here that amazon and microsoft are on on prowl for security
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startups as well. let's not forget the check went which is the biggest companies worth $13 billion, the inventor of the firewall. there are a few reasons why israel is quite strong in this area. let's not forget the drones. it's a battlefield is tested. they have to deal with cyber attacks on a minute by minute basis. 1000 a minute according to some reports. they have to be on top of their game. you have many israelis, they spend a couple years is a divisions. netanyahu himself helped establish the cyber security bureau which is looking to encourage collaboration between education, this is, -- this is thomas and the ministry -- business, and the ministry as well. and believe the government should lean on and they are encouraging to do so. netanyahu speaking at the event this morning.
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>> thank you. >> to music. 56 and you will grammy -- annual grammy awards. macklamore among the winners. how much does a winning the gold main -- mean? >> emerging markets. >> daft punk, no surprise. i am upset -- >> why? 17 grammys.y had a he had the best collaboration with the justin timberlake. was what of the biggest winners. they won best new artist and rap album. passé, caroline stuck he and his wife opened --
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caroline. -- he and his wife opened up. the look on his face. >> shoes of the cover last year. >> the jv was there. the opening -- >> she was the cover last year. -- they were their master. >> -- they were their master. >> it is a window. magical marketing. it is when you actually get the opportunity to get in there and present yourself. you are looking at -- i just bestyou that daft punk won alb -- record of the year. it looks like those are the main winners. >> what does it mean for artists?
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>> a lot. let's put it this way, adele and her album "21" was chart topping already. straight after the grammys in the following weeks, sales went to 730,000 albums from 100 teams to thousand. -- 122,000. >> everybody -- yellick couldre be the monetary winner. speaking it's not as well-known as the others and could be up for a big monetization on this. >> only one award that matters. a rock album of the year. it forzeppelin won "celebration."
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they won rock album of the year. >> the revival of the rolling stones. they were up against each other for best rock song. >> and paul mccartney. how many grammys are given out? >> it went from over 100. >> a long ceremony. >> when it started, it was over a 100 awards. they scaled back. quickly do you remember the one you956 was mark -- >> do remember the way in 1956 was mark was insulted me there. >> he is nothing but kind. >> i was there and sitting right here for some he was tweeting. ,
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boys. very young at heart. chickens crossed the road. watch out. that is next. ♪
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>> time for hot shots, the most compelling images making news today. ♪ most active volcano exploded on sunday. the rapture is the first of this year after an active year last year. lava streamed down. no evacuations were needed. 3000 chickens got their shot at freedom over the weekend after a truck overturned on a motorway in china. the runway chickens shut down a section of the road while they tried to recapture the clucking fugitives. welcome back to "countdown." i am mark barton. >> i am caroline hyde. i am very impressed you did not make a few puns there. thank you. let's go on to oakville on the
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move."-- "on the she is having a well needed rest after davos. you will be talk about futures trading lower. >> exactly. markets not having a rest at all. the emerging markets and whether it was the start of material correct and the talking point after the end and i will be a talking point as we go into this week. this was the futures are telling golf stop -- telling us. cav holding up but expecting weakness. their week is a trading period since june. >> futures coming off the lows. we are looking at vodafone because it could follow because at&t is saying no deal. >> at&t is coming out with their statement. terribly familiar with that one.
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they said they are not going to bid for vodafone. that statement is good for six months. them and toke vodafone share prices as people speculating there might be a bit with conceived. they do not tell us what they would do after the end of six months and what did the commissioner stated during the meeting with the management of at&t. we will have to see. >> and what other assets. exactly. you will be back in 15 minutes. over to you, mark. >> a look at the top macro t hemes. investor confidence following last week in june -- last week. business confidence. >> that is one we are closely watching. that is something to watch. when you look at the market -- futures are lower again.
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the stocks got a whipping overnight the weeds but a similar -- and we expect similar in a europe. about 1130 -- at 11:30 a.m. u.k. time. mark carney at how they will throw it under the bus at the neglect it. you have a policymakers try to get a feel for where it is going. the big month. that is coming up and we are looking for to that. i'll be forward guidance on the rates. >> they will have to evolve it. picture can you paint when you're going to be using not only the unemployment rate? but of course, it is hard to preempt. if you're using a myriad of analyses using different numbers, it will be hard.
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>> it goes back to inflation targeting. >> i think the big take away is we want monetary to normalize. iom the likes of mark carney, bet he cannot wait until it gets boring and nobody was to speak to hell. >> it will not happen quite yet. industryal of goods and will have more on that and the week ahead. apple is releasing earnings and he said will meet for a couple of days tomorrow. german business confidence. come, that too,, -- to market analysis. ♪
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>> welcome back to "countdown." i am mark barton. >> i am caroline hyde. marketake a look at the before it opens. futures are mixed at the moment. trading lower but will have all eyes on vodafone and german business climate. we are joined by etx strategist. first of all, paint for us how the open is going to be like. >> absolutely. we have seen the wickedness after the mark -- weakness at the market opened and we should see recovery. we will be keeping watch over germany. they are expecting a decent number. a little bit of a bounce off of
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friday's european markets. a bit of weakness. significant fal on friday and we have worries about what is going on in china and emerging markets. generally, the european market looks a bit sturdier. >> talk to us about the industry groups with telecoms and attack. apple is coming out later this evening and that will feed through arm holdings, a big supplier for apple. what are you expecting for apple but mark -- apple? is the ceo of arms holding expected to step down because of health reasons. weakness. about in terms of apple, i am expecting in my numbers with the
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company reporting, the revenue around $60 billion. strong iphone sales that will drive it. more of the outlook for the new iwatch scheduled for this year and also the tv business. on the whole, quite strong numbers. what will help to stop is if we hear more about the dividend or more share buybacks. moving upward. german business confidence at 9:00 a.m. london time. investor confidence unexpectedly fell, will we have more of the same? yes, absolutely. we are going to see a slight pickup. what was reflected was the recent upswing in the pmi, that should be consistent with the growth we are seeing.
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it will continue to instill confidence of germany of the growth of the eurozone. again, is to reaffirm the strong domestic in germany. see more dissent coming from german business or more of a turn to shake off the worries about the emerging markets after a friday's selloff? which industry groups will outperform? wille financial sectors bounce off friday's selloff and earnings and we should see a decent bounce for that. last week, we had port numbers after the announcement of pmi warnings. and we also have philips. they should be better than the market is expecting. and setting up by abb. >> and of course, talk to us about m&a and vodafone.
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it could be week on the open. at&t is not going to be bidding any time soon. vodafone could lower a little bit. absolutely. the week is and vodafone this morning. but it looks pretty strong. a candidate and would had previous reports of other candidates looking out for vodafone and we will see bids for the company in 2014. on the whole, a story and a lot of our investors are very positive on vodafone as a whole. >> thank you. we will leave it. more m&a. toited global has decided buy the telecom company. i was 30% stake. >> that will be buying out the rest. paying up $10
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billion in a stock and cash. it is all about telecom. lots of m&a last year and on a winning streak in this year. >> we will continue to watch at&t and vodafone next. ♪
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>> welcome to "on the move." i am anna edwards and for francine lacqua at bloomberg european 500 in london. we are just moments away from the start of european trading and our markets team has everything covered from companies to currencies. joining me now, john ferro and manus cranny. hans nichols is also with us live from berlin. before we get to them, let's tell you a little bit about that breaking news that our colleagues on countdown were picking up. o inrty global to buy zigg cash and stock. that just breaking at the end of the last hour.
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the deal is a nine percent premium on the share price of ziggo. reach 7ine entity will million dutch homes, the equivalent of more than 90% of dutch homes. let's get up-to-date with what our markets team is covering. >> the question is whether the emerging markets moving currencies and equities is the beginning of a bigger move. this is a big week in terms of the second move from the federal reserve. will they go for a straight and concurrent reduction in quantitative easing? equities and emerging markets, it is the worst start since 2009. foreign exchange, the sharpest drop in fx emerging-market currencies in five years. the question is, where do you want to put your money? if it is risk off, you have the yen. whether this is the beginning of a much bigger move, that is what
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yet needs to be decided. >> that is the big question. we will see how that develops through the morning. jon, you have your eyes on -- what do you have your eyes on? >> bg. this is the you k's third-largest oil and gas producer. they said, 2013 private is going to be lower than expected. it isear is it about -- about volumes, volumes, volumes. we are expecting the stock to fall at the open. areat's get to berlin hans, you are watching all things telecom. in the cross hairs. >> it is a big morning. theree liberty now with were european beachhead entirely firmed up in holland with the purchase of ziggo. vodafone is no longer a target by at&t. the question is, does vodafone then start looking for acquisitions? they are interested in ono in spain.
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in m&a, it is hot or be hunted. vodafone is now predator. >> vodafone's share price also not open yet. we will wait for that one to open up area -- open up. news surrounding edward snowden over the weekend. >> snowden gave his first television interview in russia to a german station. he made the explosive allegation that the nsa is doing industrial espionage. this gives more legs to this story that will provoke outrage here in germany. look for businesses here in germany to try to profit off of those allegations. >> thank you very much for that update. manus, and the face of that selling pressure from asia, european equity markets are a little more levelheaded. >> we are keeping an eye on german confidence. france kept their aaa status.
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we're going to keep an eye on jobs. the stoxx 600 had the biggest two day drop since june. the question is whether you believe the emerging markets move is going to continue through. japan having 18 months of deficits not helping the situation. you have equity markets -- look, paris opening just by an eighth. a little bit of a lift. let's see if we have any pricing on ziggo just yet. unilever, we are waiting. in terms of some of the other companies, johnny mentioned bg. this is the uk's third-largest oil and gas producer. in terms of the price of gas, the state is going to rip a hole of approximately $2.2 billion. we are waiting to the stock open
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to finish trading. vodafone was called two to three percent lower. at&t not going after the assets of vodafone at the moment. insurers is a u.k. which has been troubled by an irish operation. the dividend may have to be sacrificed. approximately 500 million pounds. whether that is the case or not, .ore speculation in the press that is a moving story. in terms of currencies, where you want to have a check is this, you saw the yen, money going into the den coming out of the dollar. that was a little bit of a continuation in terms of the emerging markets story. as you saw the trade data come, you saw the yen begin to soften a little bit there. you are looking at it coming off a seven-week high. in terms of the emerging-market
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currencies, let me just show you a today move. this is the indian rupee. you get a sense that the overall momentum which is dollar rising, indian rupee falling. and gold, coming just off this level at just below 1300. we are seeing that gold is going to make it up to a two-month high, its longest weekly gain since 2012. it is going to be short lived according to mark lays. back to you. >> thank you very much. welcomeus now, let's jim mccormick, global head of asset allocation at barclays. thank you very much for joining us. i'm sure experienced investors such as yourself never get nervous. do the developments in emerging markets make you nervous about where equities are heading? >> i suppose it does. setas been an interesting
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of actions given that the underlying fundamentals globally look ok. global growth has started in reasonably good shape. fixed income markets in the developed world have been well behaved. there has been a lot of idiosyncratic stories in emerging markets but it is a worry because the background fundamentals don't look so good. >> -- don't look so good. >> it is difficult to work out where this negativity is coming from. there is a global growth story out there. might be a consolidation year. we might see further growth from averaging and developed markets. yet the nervousness around emerging markets perhaps think to tapering by the fed is also a theme. in terms of where we are, are we at the start of some correction or is that overplaying it? >> firstly, emerging markets, we should recognize that they have been adjusting to the new picture in china for almost three years. market that has finally
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recognized a trend that has been in place for a long time. as far as developed market equities, with growth picking up and earnings looking ok, unless you are talking about the beginning of a fed tightening which looks unlikely in 2014, i don't think this is the beginning of a big downturn. >> are countries such as argentina and thailand in a special place in investors' arts? -- hearts? are we overplaying? >> i would say that is unlikely those markets on their own can cause a real systemic problem. what you have is an environment where sentiment around emerging markets is so poor that it takes very little. i would be much more concerned about the slowdown in growth in china and i would be worried about turkey. >> thank you very much, jim mccormick. here is a look at what is coming up on "on the move."
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no deal. at&t is not making an offer for vodafone. we will have the latest. that is coming up just after a short break. ♪
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>> i am anna edwards in london. this is "on the move" on bloomberg television. let's have a look at one of the top movers today.
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vodafone down by 5.6%. at&t has said they are not bidding for vodafone. they had to satisfy the takeover rules in the u.k. they say they are not bidding. that comment is good for six months. that is it at the moment. 11.9% afterdown by that company came out with a profit warning, announcing a non-cash impairment of approximately $2.4 billion partly to do it egypt emma partly to do with the united states. numbers will be out on the fourth of february. we spoke exclusively to the former president of the european central bank, jean-claude trichet over the weekend. he told us the davos man -- told us what the davos man has got right about 2014. >> the davos man is probably right in thinking that year to is -- 2014 will be later with
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andth all over the world with a little bit more growth than last year. again, the mood is good and you can understand that from a short-term perspective. of course, risks are still there. risks are they're everywhere. central banks are still doing extraordinary things including nonstandard measures. not signals that things are yet working normally in the advanced economies even if they are growing. risks are also there in the emerging world where the most honorable companies -- countries. we are relying on the growth of the emerging economies. some of them because of the
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andge of the global finance the financial cycle being on its way to change, some of the most vulnerable -- >> jean-claude trichet there. still with us is jim mccormick. let's pick up on some of the themes there about growth in emerging markets. you previously have said that you are long emerging markets. is that something you are reevaluating in the wake up what has happened over the last week? -- selectively constructed. selectivity,rms of the equity picture still looks good given global growth. with the currency, we have focused on two which is indian rupee and brazilian real. ,elative to other currencies they have done ok recently.
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>> what about other areas of the world you're interested in? i know you like japan. the nikkei had a good year last year. >> i think japan, the key message is that the story in 2014 changes a lot. the we need to focus on is behavior of the japanese investor. we think that there is a very strong case the japanese investors will start moving money out of fixed income into equity. that should be a decent boost for japanese equities. >> we have had a lot of m&a conversations this morning and this year about telecoms in europe. is that a sector that interest you at the moment? is it for growth or is it for the m&a story? >> i think that telecoms and technology globally look very good given what is going on with global growth. i think regionally we really like europe. europe is a big surprise this year and the european growth story has been ok. to be a decentes
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support for the markets. regionally, europe is definitely something you want to be looking at this year. >> so your long european equities and you are buying stoxx 600 energy index. ,ome people including bg group a little cautious about what is happening in the energy markets. part of that is egypt specific events and part of that is pricing in the united states. does that put pressure on the biting energy stock strategy? >> there is a lot priced into energy right now. we are back at levels when oil was trading at six dollars to $10 a barrel. it is a story that is in the price and my guess is that we should see some upside this year. >> in terms of your overall strategies, the central banks were a big talking point at davos. whether we are too reliant on central bank's around the world. does that give you opportunity to play one central-bank strategy off-site instead
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another? >> i think this year is going to be a very interesting year for divergence in central-bank policy. we think the ecb is going to cut rates again sometime this quarter. we think the fed is going to taper and the market will have to start pricing tightening by the end of the year. that should be a pretty big event. you expect to dollar strength in that. i would expect significant underperformance of fixed income in the u.s. versus europe in that type of environment. >> is that an acknowledgment that the ecb is really working for the core of the eurozone and all the stress is around the not enough to get them to take the step? persistenteeing weakness and france, that is what the city is focus on? >> it might be even simpler. the ecb is a very pragmatic inflation targeting central bank. core inflation is below one and they think it will be there for a while. that means they need to act. >> is that going to be a theme for 2014?
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>> i think deflation will probably be an overhyped theme this year. europe is where you want to be worried. in my mind it is probably a couple of peripheral countries that are already experiencing deflation. we don't see deflation in the eurozone as a whole as a risk for this year. >> you are light in terms of your strategy to liking europe. you like some of the periphery in particular. >> if you are looking at a central bank that is going to react aggressively to low inflation at a time when earnings should be picking up, peripheral stocks should be a reasonably good i. -- good buy. >> should that have happened years ago? >> if europe is going to adjust, it is going to have to include deflation in the peripherals. it is not a fun way of adjusting but it is the only choice you have with fixed exchange rates. it is happening. they are going through it and it is a long-term positive.
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i wouldn't want to be part of it in terms of the day today. >> this bubble around emerging markets, are we going to start distinguishing between those countries that have large current account deficits and are more vulnerable than others? is that a theme that is going to develop? >> i think so. you are starting to see a good deal of differentiation. that wasn't the case last week. last week, my guess, is an anomaly. there are even some of the crisis stories like india which suddenly looked ok. india has had a significant improvement in its current account balance. that is helping the currency. it should be a niche or sting year for differentiating emerging markets. i would be surprised if it is going to be a repeat of last week throughout this year. >> bs a quality review, is that something that will comfort us or -- the asset quality review, is that something that will comfort us or where yes? we like european banks for
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2014. >> thank you very much for joining us this morning. great to get your thoughts so early on a monday. jim mccormick joining us from barclays. coming up, at&t says it won't make a bid for vodafone. more on that coming up next on "on the move." ♪
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>> welcome back to "on the move
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." i am anna edwards in london. your some company's that are on the move this morning. samsung and google have sent a global licensing agreement to share their technology. the deal covers existing patents during the next 10 years. the companies say the partnership may reduce potential litigation. the egyptian billionaire tells bloomberg that he is ready to step in and invest in telecom italia. thatis on the condition the carrier's largest shareholder telefonica will exit. to say how much he is willing to invest this time. onofone is seeking to buy as the spanish cable operator prepares for an initial public offering. according to people familiar with negotiations, video may be announced in the next few weeks. the acquisition will be part of vodafone's expansion into services like high-speed internet and television across europe.
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vodafone, all things telecom, at&t says it doesn't intend to make an offer for the u.k. wireless company. at&t was responding to speculation about a possible takeover. let's get to hans nichols in berlin for all of the details. >> what started off as an at&t at&t coming toof europe, looking for a target, has turned more into a vodafone story. if you take the precept of hunter and hunted, vodafone is no longer prey, they are now turning into predators. what do they go after? we should know that their stock clear the idea of a takeover from at&t may have been priced into their stock price. here is the actual statement from at&t. it is a request of the u.k. transfer panel.
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at&t confirms that it does not intend to make an offer for vodafone. that. at&t fromevents making a play for six months. all this comes in the context of vodafone unwinding their deal with verizon. at the end of february, that deal will be complete. now, 80 ofillion that will go back to shareholders. they will pay off some 400 billion in debt. vodafone will be a company that has very little debt and maybe in expansion a remote. what might a buy? that is the question. >> you have to wonder on at&t's part, whether they decided not to bid or whether they had no intention anyway. only time will tell. another telecom story that you are covering, liberty global is buying ziggo. what are the details on this deal? >> it is priced at about 34 euros a share. this puts market valuation i
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believe at $9.4 billion. this is a go. what is important here is that john malone has succeeded in getting a dutch telecom where carlos slim did not. there was this big movement a couple of months ago where carlos slim was trying to buy kp end -- kpn. what you seeing is that global ,ompanies see a lot of value potentially unlock value and european telcos. whether that is wireless or fixed line, they are looking for customers. they were looking for an opportunity to compete someplace where competition is perhaps a little softer. you see this in the u.s. market with at&t. competition is going to heat up in the u.s. market. at&t may be facing some sort of price war with sprint, with verizon. they are looking to expand into europe, get a hold of some sort of 4g network. one potential at&t target is e.e., the venture between orange
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and deutsche telekom. cash is still relatively cheap. some of these companies have a lot of it. if you look at what is happening in terms of debt financing and interest rates staying low, companies that are on the move that want to make an acquisition have a short amount of time before interest rates start to spike at making these acquisitions becomes more costly. i suspect we will be talking about telecoms more in the coming weeks as long as some of that cash stays viable. >> fascinating stuff. fascinating that these deals are not just in mobile. they are not just in cable. they are in all of these areas. hans nichols reporting from berlin. up next, a blue christmas for retailers but apple saw green. the tech giant is set to post its third profit gain in more than a year. will it be a enough to boost investor confidence? that is coming up next on "on the move." ♪
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am anna edwards in for francine lacqua. let's check in on a couple of stocks that are on the move today. we see executive moves from company to company and it doesn't usually do this to share prices. lanxess up by 8%. merck down by 9%. this is because mark's cfo matthias zachert has said that he is leaving. he's going to become the ceo of lanxess. it seems where this man goes, investors want to follow. lanxess is responding positively to the arrival of this new ceo. merck's share price is trading
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down by 9%. morgan stanley and foxton both cutting their recommendations. clearly some investors believe he has a material impact on these businesses. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see how things are shaping up more broadly. there is that story in the drug he and let's have a look at the broad market. the ftse 100 down by 1.2%. markets were fairly relaxed in the early start of trading. in the face of that selling pressure coming over from the asian markets, last week equity volatility measured by the vix increased to the most in two years. it seems as if we are in for some nervousness still as these equity markets in europe are moving lower. let's move onto what is happening in the currency markets. emerging market currency weakness is one factor that gave equity markets something to think about last week. we have got the dollar against the yen, the won.
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the dollar stronger across the board. not just the japanese currency but also those emerging market currencies in south korea, turkey and argentina. another 1.5% move against the dollar for the argentine peso. let's bring you to bloomberg's top headlines. equity volatility in emerging markets jumped the most in two years as turmoil spread across global markets. asian stocks slid the most in seven months in the south korean won bank weakened. the turkish lira weakened to a record against the u.s. dollar. gold also gained. one third of swiss banks offered amnesty by the u.s. have applied for the program. that is according to three lawyers involved. the u.s. government gave the bank until december 31 two seed nonprosecution agreements if they believe they may have invaded u.s. tax laws. edward snowden the says there is doubt thehere is no
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u.s. engages in industrial espionage. he also dismissed accusations that he worked as a foreign agent and said he worked alone. now. look ahead for you apple will be reporting earnings later today. for more on what we can expect, let's get to john ferro in the newsroom. >> good morning. we are expecting some pretty big headline numbers from this company. they could paste their first profit gain in over a year. how many iphones, ipods were sold over christmas? it could be 65 million phones, 25 million ipads. the new releases are going to get you a bump a quarter. we have the ipad air, the new iphone too. another point of interest is the forecast. as they team up with china mobile, how optimistic are they about sales in that region? there have been a lot of people talking about a new iphone that may have a bigger screen. , this isle complain just evolution of existing
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products. what a lot of people want are some big innovations. >> basil evolution and innovation debate that you have been talking about, apple has not entered a new product category since 2010. there has been a lot of talk about what they could do in the mobile payment space. is that something to watch? >> there has been a big buzz about this over the weekend. 400 million, that is how many credit card details apple has on file with itunes. some speculation that apple may try to leverage that. card --digital credit imagine walking into a shop and using your iphone or itunes details as a digital credit card. there could be some competition in this space. facebook has one billion users with a username and password but they don't have access to their accounts. -- 400repeat that number million registered users. car hadext, berkeley
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around 21 million customers. the banks don't even touch the sides. >> the death of my wallet, i am still not giving it away. thank you very much. edward snowden says there is no doubt that the u.s. is engaging in industrial espionage. stealing useful information from foreign companies. the latest comes from injury of snowden did -- an interview snowden did with a german television station. has always been one aspect of the concern here in germany. that is that the nsa is spying for theean companies financial advantage of u.s. companies. here is what snowden said. it is a six-hour interview, his first television interview. it is significant that he gave it to a german station. he used the company that everyone associates with germany along with the auto company, siemens, my name. if there is information that siemens that is beneficial to u.s. national interests, even if he doesn't have anything to do with national security, they
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will take that information. he also refreshed his charges about what the u.s. has done in terms of eavesdropping into angela merkel's phone and he also said that he doesn't think he could get a fair trial in the states. what we have here is essentially the economic aspects of what was a national security story. this gives it more legs. at the same time, here in in davos, youso see european companies making the case that data is more secured when it is stored in the country of its origin. it really allows companies like sap to make the case that they can provide secure data in europe and not have data in the wherego over to the u.s. we don't know what sort of regulatory framework may the attached to that data.
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>> the footprint that your data leaves looks as if civic could ina topic of conversation 2014. data protection was a concern at davos. this is going to lighten those concerns. >> it absolutely will ---those concerns. >> it absolutely -- heighten those concerns. >> it absolutely will. companies are using this to their stretch it -- tactical advantage. how many like cisco and microsoft are aware of this. they are trying to answer concerns. it is tough to stay ahead of the story when you have someone like edward snowden making explosive allegations on german television which is watched by german consumers and german companies. >> thank you very much, hans nichols with all the details on that story. as we mentioned, emerging markets stocks fell to their lowest level in more than four months today. currencies have been weakening again. dennis carney joins us to put joins usmanus cranny
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to put this in perspective. is this all about tapering? is this the umbrella we should put across these moves? >> i certainly think it is one of the biggest drivers. it is the reality of what happens when the fed is pulling back and the u.s. dollar is getting stronger. in china, there is a small movement in terms of data. , thee have concerns biggest slump in five years, goldman sachs says we warned you about this in 2012. in december they said, pull back from your fx positions in em. what sums up beautifully is what pimco said. have a look at the three worst-performing currencies for 2013 and 2014. the argentinians have gone for a devaluation, the turks have gone for intervention. the rand trading at 2008 lows. it is a stampede at the moment.
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investors, don't differentiate between quality names and low-quality. therein lies the issue. we have had credit suisse, ubs and here today saying this is the beginning of a continued move. we will come to a point where we begin to differentiate between the structure really poor currencies. >> those with high deficit for example. >> exactly. --idn't see the exclamation escalation coming. 13 currencies have gone through the median forecast for the year. people are abandoning their original calls. that sums up the fx story. >> let's move onto stocks. this is being reflected in global equities. >> it is. let's look past the equity story and talk about volatility. you mentioned it in your market coverage. it is beginning to cost you place of statue a lot of money. volatility has jumped the most in two years. that is a contagion into mature
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markets. there is a very boring markets thing we look at. >> i am sure it is not. go ahead. >> is nine days in the s&p 500. me is what that says to that there is a preparedness for this correction that has been much touted, much mooted. goldman sachs said, get ready for a bit of a draw down. that is what is coming through in these volatility indexes. 82% jump in volatility. $995 billion wiped off equities since the fed first mentioned tapering. >> thank you very much, manus cranny with the latest on those global equity market moves. coming up, the political crisis in ukraine worsens as the power-sharing bid fails to settle the unrest. stay with us for an update. ♪
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>> welcome back. i am anna edwards in london. this is "on the move" on
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bloomberg television. political crisis in ukraine worsened over the weekend after president yanukovych's offer to share power with the opposition failed to end the unrest. ryan chilcote is here with more. what is the latest? >> funeral processions have become a feature of the opposition movement. protesters yesterday carrying whocoffin of one kevsky would have turned 26 yesterday. he was shot down earlier in the week. he was led through the streets, his coffin, followed by hundreds of marchers, many wearing masks clearly intent on participating in the clashes going forward. those clashes continued when protesters seized at least one government building. the justice minister within the last hour saying if the justice ministry wasn't released whether protesters then she would be forced to ask the president to call for a state of emergency.
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it would then be up to the president to decide whether he would do that. in the regions, we have the protests spreading. regional headquarters of the federal government either blockaded or occupied by protesters in 10 different regions. that is mostly in the west of the country where it is ukrainian nationalism. it is also now in the more pro-yanukovych territories like the east and the south of the country. >> that is very interesting. where does this go now? parliament is convening tomorrow. >> that is right. i think what transpires in parliament tomorrow will be the catalyst for what happens next on the street. president yanukovych offered one of the three opposition leaders over the weekend the job of prime minister. he refused. he offered the deputy prime minister post to the former heavyweight boxer, another option leader -- opposition leader. some said, this is just an attempt by the president to try to divide the opposition.
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>> an already divided opposition. >> that is right. a third opposition leader, the leader of the more militant elements wasn't offered any jobs. this perhaps was a way to try to divide and alienate them from an increasingly disinterested group of protesters on the streets who aren't paying attention. obviously need to pay attention to what happens of parliament tomorrow. eupresident putin is meeting representatives in brussels. >> that is right. both the european union and russia have the ability to influence what is happening in kiev. the russians have given the ukrainian government $15 billion. we will see what they do tomorrow. >> ryan, thank you so much. imf chief christine lagarde warned once again about the threat of deflation while she was in davos last week. guy johnson caught up with one of the biggest pains in the hedge fund world, pierre lagrange and asked him if he shared her concerns. are quite we
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concerned about it. it is a serious trend. especially because the cbi is hiding another area which is weakening. --hink we are starting japanese banks, when they start getting the value because of deflation. the value of what you lend against. while it doesn't hit you , thatately, and 20 years asset deflation bubble is going to be different. it is a problem. >> that conversation with guy johnson who joins us now. >> bureau la grange, cofounder of geology, has a clear -- year lagrange,-- pierre founder of glg has a clear view on it. we also had the head of the ecb, mario draghi saying this is a
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low event from our point of view. we are ready if we need to to stand up to deflation. we don't have a securitization market that exists properly at the moment. philip sure is investing us to talk about all of this. an emerging got markets specialist coming on the show to talk about what has been happening in atms. -- in em's. we have to talk about the grammys as well. is it a business award or a music award? that is the debate. i am looking forward to seeing you in that hour. >> i will be there for that conversation. thank you very much. that is what is coming up on "the poles." in terms of what is happening in the markets, the uk's third-largest oil and gas producer issued a profit warning. .et's bring in brian talk us through what is happening. why are oil and gas companies issuing profit warnings now? in this case it has to do with
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pricing in the u.s. and egypt. >> there are specific things for bg and global things. shall last week issued a profit warning. the problem by have is rising cost of investment. and a struggle to increase production. bg has specific problems. they are very big in egypt. egypt accounts for almost one percent of their output. all of the shipments they were so was to be making are being diverted back into the domestic market because of political unrest. >> they are declaring a force majeure. >> that is right. and liquefied natural gas is really bg's specialty. things aren't going well for them there. apparently things are getting worse. >> this is a big surprise to investors because the share price was weaker at the start of trade today. down by some 13.5% now. what is the biggest surprise? >> the problem for investors is they downgraded guidance for this year and what they were
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expecting for 2013 as well. they areey are saying going to be worse this year than they expected. it is worse than what analysts were expecting. they are saying it will be a big jump in 2015 but it makes people skeptical. >> thank you very much. we will take a short break on "on the move" and be back in two minutes. ♪
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>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am anna edwards in london. investors may have been looking at a potential upside to apple expanding in china. my guest says that is a bad move. let's welcome a senior european editor at engadget. the queue for joining us. why would apple be expanding in china if it is a bad idea? >> i don't think it is necessarily bad. it is risky. we are talking about the upside. apple has gained access to the biggest wireless carrier in the world, 700 million subscribers. that can only be good for business. at the same time, it is important to look at the risks involved in terms of apple's image. i am not sure that people have necessarily thought this through. apple has made very strong and passionate morally based commitments to its american customers about their data, never being exposed to the
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government. thatook recently said employees would have to be carted out in a box. >> even in the face of nsa requests. question that will arise in china is, can apple make the same promise to its chinese customers? china mobile is state-owned. you negotiate with china mobile and you all should negotiate -- >> when google went into china, there were questions about the whole do no evil and how they would sell this to the google brand. are there similarities? >> yes. this is not an apple-specific problem. apple, being the industry leader logo whicha special is an important part of the margins, it is more vulnerable than others. that is why we have seen tim cook on other potential ethical with 2012 and 2013, he
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has been quick to make a passionate defense for apple. he knows that apple doesn't suffer from bad reviews. it suffers from scandals. he has jumped up to defend the moral principle of privacy in the west. we know already -- that apple has taken down apps that discuss tibet from the app store. ultimately i think people will see that if there is two faces of apple, one for the west and one for the east, that is going to be a potential pr nightmare for apple. it is not going to be fatal. it is something to bear in mind. >> talking about where politics and possibly even government influence and espionage meet business, let's take a brief look at a in dash at at&t not bidding for vodafone. do you sense that this is anything to do with the eight nsa scandal? >> it is probably purely
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business focus. we have seen that t-mobile and verizon had bumper courses in the u.s. and have recruited many new customers. they are now competing on price, especially t-mobile. foremosthows first and is that there is nowhere to go as an american carrier right now. you need to look abroad and look at acquisitions. does that make it a good thing for vodafone? it ultimately raises the question for vodafone customers. it will be a new concept to be owned by at&t, an american company, when we know that our privacy is not treated the same way as u.k. citizens. our data doesn't have the same protections. >> another dimension. thank you very much for joining us. that will do it for "on the move ." stay with bloomberg television. guy johnson is up with "the pulse" coming up in just moments. we will stick it short -- we
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will take a short break here. ♪
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>> deal and no deal. vodafone shares slide as at&t says it won't make a takeover offer. liberty global agrees to buy ziggo. oil giant in trouble. weak start for shell's profit warning. bg says earnings will be lower than expected. shares have fallen today. the grammys, music awards or business awards? founderdiscuss with the of the mercury prize. good morning. welcome. you are watching "on the


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