tv Bloomberg Bottom Line Bloomberg July 17, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
>> good day. i am mark crumpton along with tom keene. lives continuing coverage of the ongoing situation in ukraine where ukrainian separatists and the government both deny shooting down a passenger plane with 295 people aboard. let's get to michael mckee at the breaking news desk with the very latest. good afternoon. >> let's bring you up to date. 17aysian airlines flight took off at about 9:00 p.m. nine --time -- at about 6:30 a.m..
they were5 a.m., informed that traffic control lost contact with the plane. a ukraine interior ministry spokesman, they feel it was shot down by rebels. the rebels deny that at this point. according to ukrainian air traffic control, the plane was flying at almost 34,000 feet, and so it would take a fairly sophisticated surface-to-air missile to do that. members,ngers, 15 crew a total of 295, according to the ukrainian government, all of them have been killed. there is an unconfirmed report that 23 of them were americans. again, no confirmation of that. united states had closed the airspace to u.s. carriers in april, and why the europeans did not close it, they made a basically off-limits, telling pilots because of the war zone they should avoid the area, so that was a question why the
plane was in the area at the time. russians say they close the airspace because they have to fly into russia out of the ukraine. ukrainian see the airspace was open today. that is the very latest. we are still waiting for details. it is very difficult to get details because of the armed troops in the area. >> we were in the newsroom trying to sort out the shock of this and we both turned to the book "missile system." i am trying to get smarter on it. you have done a better job than me. tommy about the grisly system, -- tell me about the grisly system. >> this is an antiaircraft weapon that can be moved around. .t is not shoulder-fired it can hit targets as high as 82,000 feet. civilian airliners usually fly 40,000ange of 30,000 to feet. it would be well within the
range of these missiles. we do not know if the separatists in the ukraine have this type of weaponry. we assume the russian military does, but the russians denying responsibility at this point. eight it is interesting that it seems that -- it is interesting that the russians were the ones that informed the americans because president obama and president putin were on a phone call and this came up. absolutely. we turn to our gentleman with terrific perspective on russia. ryan chilcote is on his way to the ukraine right now enjoins us by telephone this afternoon. ryan, you go into a changed ukraine. what will be your first question in kiev? >> i think the very first question is what proof do you
have -- this is the question for the central government of the ukraine -- that this plane was shot down by the insurgents, as you claim? now, the idea that it was a russian weapon that brought it down is not particularly surprising. if you think about it, the ukrainian military is armed with russian weapons. the insurgents are armed with russian weapons. russia is the world's exporter.gest arms this is its neighbor. everyone in the region has russian arms. we have the central government saying these were the insurgents firing on this plane using russian weapons. i think the real issue is what proof does the ukrainian central government have? the next question is who is control of the actual accident site? remember, this plane went down in the east of the country where there is a war between the ukrainian central government and the insurgents.
one of the critical issues is who is on location, who is in control of the investigation? neither of these sites are objective and both of them, in lie.frequently, by -- >> are we hearing anything at this point from the poroshenko administration? and reaction? >> we have heard a lot. the ukrainian resident has expressed condolences, said there was an investigation underway, and he is invited international investigators to be part of that effort. the ukrainian government has blamed the insurgents for bringing down this plane, saying that international observers need to be brought into this area. just imagine how cap kidded that is. you have tens of thousands -- complicated that is. you have tens of thousands of forces on either side in the conflict zone. how you would bring in outside
parties to investigate, i'm not really sure how that would work. he has been very quick to react to this, and very quick to point the finger at the insurgents, and indirectly, effectively, at the kremlin. , is there any one entity, one government, both sides could agree to that could come in and not take the lead in the investigation, but at least assist? >> it is a good question, and i think the answer to that is probably no, and if there was a country, it would be a country like austria, possibly germany, but the problem is just last night germans introduce new sanctions against russia, so as far as russians are concerned, germany is not objective in this conflict anymore. germany is biased toward ukraine. i think it will be very difficult to come to some kind nf an agreement on who can be a
objective third-party. >> you have terrific respecter on the institutions of russia, the ukraine, for that matter of europe, as they look east. which institution would you turn to to get this investigation going? does ukraine have the ability? >> they have what they need. at the end of the day, as we heard earlier in the newscast, there are very few weapons that can take a plane out of the sky at 10,000 meters. we are talking 32,000 feet up into the sky. so, it will not be difficult to figure out what python, and it should not be very difficult to figure out where it was brought down from. then, it is simply a matter of who fired the weapon. now, if the ukrainians were able to prove that the weapon was
fired from russia, the russian side of the border, that would be dramatic. if the ukrainians are saying the weapon was fired from inside ukraine but by insurgents, that is going to be difficult to prove because they will actually have to come up with evidence to prove it, and there is no institution,ity, in ukraine or russia right now that would take a neutral role in what is a very nasty conflict between these two countries. >> bloomberg's ryan chilcote joining us on the phone. he is en route to ukraine. as you pointed out, he has a unique perspective. >> you and i have been sitting here cushy in new york and ryan has been in and out of these areas many times. experts weighsome in, and some less than experts waiting and. neednot convey that we
expert analysis, and we get that from chief washington correspondent peter cook. what have you learned in the last hour? how is the president adapting his schedule today? well, the president is about to speak at the port of wilmington up in delaware. the topic of conversation is supposed to be official trip investment and a new effort to bring the five tie -- private sector into that investment, but we are told the president will discuss the situation in ukraine, the downing of the plane in his opening comments. we told you earlier the white house is saying they have no confirmation as to what brought this plane down but the president did talk about it with vladimir putin. we know the subject came up to me initiated by president putin, and the first reports of the plane going down occurred while the two were on the telephone. that is why he was not the top of their conversation. it was breaking news the leaders
of these respective countries as well. the president will talk about it at the top of his comments. i would not expect the president will provide too many details at this point. the u.s. government is trying to be very careful to determine exactly what happened. >> peter, it is mark. a question of how this plays out against the backdrop of those sanctions. we have been hearing that the u.s. is rapidly -- ratcheting the sanctions. >> ratcheting the sanctions. the president is approaching the podium right now. one of the reasons for the sanctions was the u.s. was concerned about the flow of weapons from russia into the separatists. one of those things that could've come up during the call could have been the weapons in play here. >> peter cook in washington. president obama speaking in delaware. let's go there live. >> it is wonderful to be back in delaware. there they begin, obviously
world is watching reports of a downed passenger jet near the russia-ukraine border, and it looks like it may be a terrible tragedy. right now, we are working to determine whether there were american citizens on board. priority, andrst i have directed my national security team to stay in close contact with the ukrainian government. the united states will offer any assistance we can to help determine what happened and why, and as a country, our thoughts and prayers are with all of the families of the passengers wherever they call home. i want to say thank you to jeremy for that introduction. give jeremy a big round of applause. [applause] it is great to be in the state that gave us joe biden. [applause] >> the president of the united states speaking in delaware, and he said at the top "we are
working to determine if there were american citizens on board." that is our first priority. >> i surprised that the brevity of his comments come but that really shows how this is unfolding in ad hoc basis here, pmn as we go into our 2:00 hour. peter cook is our chief washington correspondent, and it really speaks to the lack of information flow. turne ask, who would you to for expertise in washington when you see a plane go down from six miles up? >> i would speak to the pentagon, and see what kind of weapon could take that down at that altitude. one of the questions is does the government have that kind of capability. you would think they would, even though we have not seen any demonstration of that because they had not been taking on aircrafts on the part of the
circus. russians have that kind of -- separatist. russians have that kind of capability. how did that get into the hands of separatist if indeed that is how this plane went down? this is a question about the heavy weapons, the kind of firepower being brought into this fight in eastern ukraine. it is any concern on the part of the european union, united states, the fact that the violence has been escalating, and the firepower, the sheer firepower, has been escalating as well. >> peter cook, our chief washington correspondent, thank you. again, president obama with some comments. he did add that the united states would offer any assistance, and as ryan chilcote site,ned, the crash appearing armed rebels in that area, so it is a question of whether an estimator's can get -- investigators can get into
>> welcome back. the equity markets took a dive on the initial report of the malaysian plane allegedly being shot down. let's go to our senior marcus correspondent julie hyman. she is in the newsroom with the details. >> they took the initial dive and they remain lower, not sharply lower. we are seeing a selloff, but it is not an out-of-control, panicked selloff, is what investors are telling me. if you look at what is selling off the most, it is across the board, industrials, energy stocks, and financials being hit
the hardest. technology stocks are also on the list, things that tend to be vulnerable to any kind of shift in geopolitical tensions and the economy. as money is flowing out of stocks, investors are looking for what they perceive as safety. when the places they are going, the treasury market. treasury prices climb. it is at the lowest level at more than six weeks on the 30-year. we'll see a contraction on the yield curve, a narrowing of the yield curve, the most narrow since 2009 between the five-year and the 30-year. we also are looking at those models that tend to be perceived as a haven. gold is watching -- metals that tend to be perceived as a haven. gold is rising. palladium also has been rising in reaction to all of us. iscourse, the russian market
closed, so investors can not sell russian stocks directly, but we see a russian etf, the most heavily traded in the united states, also take a steep hit today. there are broad market applications, but investors, just as we are, mark, are also holding back to some extent as they wait to get more information. >> julie hyman, thank you. for more reaction to the malaysian airlines crash, we from austin, floyd texas. thank you for your time today. as ourf gray area here reporters have noted in the initial stages of a catastrophe like this. some of the information is correct, but often times a lot of the information is incorrect. what do we know, or what would you, as an expert, like to know? >> we know, as you said, is very great. there are a lot of claims and finger-pointing going
back-and-forth because each side is trying to frame the argument. has we do now is the plane lost contact and crashing we have evidence of that on the ground and everyone is dead on board. from there, the assumption is that was shot down based off of based offrash -- where he did crash because it was in a conflict zone, but at this point we cannot rule out mechanical failure, pilot error, or even necessarily a terrorist attack of some different sort to being a cause. adjusted in very your knowledge on missile systems. in particular, the book "missile system." what can you advance in our conversation on a missile that can take a commercial jet out six miles off of the ground? >> is one of the commentators pointed out, this is very easy in the surface to air missile systems. they are designed to engage
military aircraft that are hard to see, find faster and higher than civilian aircraft. in many ways civilian aircraft are large, easy to see, and flying slow. system -- side is claiming the system because they do not operate that system, so it kind of indirectly points the ander at the separatists russia as be the approximate causes for this crash, year if it was shot down. >> paul, it is good to speak with someone with military experience. as a former army ranger, you have done that. what is your belief in the institutional integrity in ukraine? this is an award zone, as my colleague mark crumpton mentioned earlier. my do -- a war zone, as colleague mark crumpton mentioned earlier. how can the community, or even the ukraine going to study this accident? >> it is important to note that
the plane has crashed in predominantly rebel-held territory, so it will require military force, or at least security to establish this, and honestly, we are already losing time. most authorities look -- like to be on the scene as soon as possible, and we will lose days before people can determine what actually happened. >> paul, speaking of geopolitical intelligence, one of the implications here, not just for ukraine, but for washington and for moscow? >> if you look at this in the broader context of the east versus west, and more specifically with russia and the u.s. colliding heads over the ukraine, you could label fault to who determine -- if you determine who shot down the plane, more pressure could be brought to bear. the u.s. has been more aggressive, and the u.s. that more tepid with sanctions because it is more economically intertwined with russia, but if
it were proven russia had a hand in this to make eu might, for the fence and put serious sanctions in place. if they can determine someone shot the plane down, it can bring a lot of international pressure focus directly on that actor. >> paul floyd, thank you so much. terrific perspective. i know there has never been a mistake on "the bottom line," but in our special coverage, if i can find a light moment, i mentioned eight hours, or nine hours, ukraine is only seven hours different in terms of times a. >> and -- time zone. >> and as you mentioned, with night following, and we can talk to willem marx about that in a few minutes, what will happen -- who is in control of the area, is the area contaminated by bad actors? to thinku only begin -- we wonder where we will be
>> welcome back to bloomberg television's continuing coverage of the malaysian airliner crash in ukraine. i am mark crumpton. tom keene joining me from "bloomberg surveillance." let's get more from the commodities market. commodities the into the close, particularly want to focus on oil. wti up 2%. experts tell me you have got to ignore part of this move today. u.s. oil is not going to move on any incidents we are going to see from ukraine, because of large refinery runs at the highest levels since 2005. pivoting to branch, where you
will see much more impact, it is much more muted than you would have thought, by half a percent today. overall analysts say that there is capacity and opec will step up with exports of oil is lost. we have oil coming online from libya, supposedly. the issue will be if the companies in russia are ever affected like exxon, slumber j, halliburton. rounding it out, you have to take a look at u.k. natural gas. that rose to the highest level in the 2 weeks on not only the sanctions, but the jet crash we heard about earlier today. russia provides europe with about half of its gas imports and half of that goes through ukraine. i have energy experts saying that all in all this is not going to be a big deal for the commodities market partly because europe has a tremendous
supply of natural gas right now. inventories are the highest since 2010 and that is helping to deflate the risk premium somewhat. overall it was a relatively warm winter. the one problem that could be an issue is in france in terms of inventory could only about 58% filled. there theyreally hot would need a little more gas. >> alix steel, thank you so much. mark crumpton and i with our coverage over the last hours. a number of very qualified guests on aerospace could now we turn to the most important in view of the moment. recently in ukraine, it barely describes his commitment to being on the ground not just in kiev and fancy hotels. joining us with his work from netsk, only- do 100 miles from the crash.
like?oes the last of look -- the landscape look like? >> flat farmland and it extends the russian border. those roads outside the city when i was there and to the same extent now are controlled 10, 20 miles away from the city by the ukrainian army. everything inside the region is controlled by the separatist isels, and really, donetsk the last bit of this movement. there are little pockets across ukraine but they have been forced out of the major cities and they have taken refuge in donetsk. i was in donetsk about 6 weeks ago. >> would you suggest from the reporting you have seen him in new york and london that there has been a deterioration or desperation on the part of the rebels in the past 6 weeks? >> i think they have got their backs against the wall. what are the reasons that has not been a killer move made them
is because the ukrainian army felt that going into the city of waging's size and warfare inside the city is going to be very costly in terms of civilian lives. they stayed on the outside and have been seeking some kind of blissful solution. this may be a turning point of the attack has come from separatist rebels and donetsk. >> strategically, if the ukrainian army were to go in there, as you mentioned, 100,000 people, are they setting themselves up for some sort of massive full-scale offensive to do that? >> they have been waiting in the wings now for months. it is a very well defended city. there is a huge number of personnel, when i was there and even more now. they controlled the city for several months and they put a positions and they are going to be-- > >> when you were there -- and this is critical, mark -- the idea of controlling airspace. they control the flat landscape
that is the stereotype of eastern ukraine. when you were in donetsk, were they controlling above? perimeter outside the city dat -- and they do control. there is an air base just to the south of the airport that the rebels reported having taken control of. this may be something that proves critical in the story. at the time they claimed they had taken control of the air defense regiment, and it included missiles. those claims are being wiped from the record. this is part of the information war we have seen from ukraine the last few months. they are now claiming that is not the case. >> ryan chilcote said in a lot of finger-pointing is going on and this will go on for next days, probably several weeks. how does this get resolved? >> that is a very good question. i think if the rebels and do own after having been behind the strike -- let's be clear, we do
not know that this plane has gone down as a result of the missile strike -- if they claim they were responsible, that will be huge for them in russia. >> mike mckee joining us with breaking news. michael? >> the black boxes from malaysia airlines flight 17 has apparently been found, going to rebel forces in the donetsk region. they said they would turn then over to russian authorities that is the case. perhaps we will have more information relatively quickly. said a flatillem area and scattered about but at least reasonably easy to get to. the only problem appears to be that since it is an rebel-held territory, it is difficult for emergency workers from ukraine to get them. the russians have asked the ukrainian government for permission to send in emergency response teams. it will be interesting to see how they handle that one. the british have apparently asked for your input to the un security council -- the u.s. to
the council meeting to discuss the latest. >> michael, thank you very much. this has been a very harried several hours starting before noon, when we got this information from you and mr. mickey out in the newsroom trying to ascertain what in fact was going on. is this not the best of what this organization does? >> it is, due to your great team as we put this" coverage together. all of our interviews on digital media -- i would bring your attention to the conversation we had with willem marx and also wonderful perspective from the faa flight instructor. >> tom keene and i don't get to work together often. >> we should meet halfway. >> sounds like a plan. stay with us. "bottom line" will continue in just a moment. ♪
>> before we break to take us back to regular programming, we want another perspective on the situation in ukraine. joining us is patrick skinner, director of special budgets at the soufflé in group. he is a former u.s. air marshal. mr. skinner, thank you for your time today. your reaction to the news you have been hearing throughout the morning and afternoon in ukraine? --pre-shocking, actually pretty shocking, actually. very unusual to have a civilian airline shutdown in a conflict zone, particularly at that height. >> we have been hearing about the height -- we have been talking about that throughout the day. we are talking about a plane that was about 6 miles in the air, cruising all the d -- cruising altitude. are you surprised that it
appeared to have been brought down? >> yes, it wasn't a defense system like a stinger missile. it would have to have been brought down by a tracked vehicle. >> in terms of intelligence, when we look at the theater where this incident took place, is there anything that the international community new or should have known -- knew or should have known ahead of this incident? >> there was an advisory for u.s. planes to avoid the area over crime area, but no provision for any line over ukraine. it is an established air traffic route from asia to europe. towas not unrealistic continue to fly like that. it was in a hot zone. -- it wasn't such a hot zone. no one would've expected to fire a military grade missile 30,000 feet in the air. >> we have asked our guests
about what this means for other commercial civilian aircraft flying in that area. you just mentioned that u.s. faa advisory that went back out in the spring, i believe it was in april. what might this mean for other civilian aircraft agencies? >> klm has just issued a no-fly director for that area and i imagine every airline will avoid that, and that will have a ripple effect because as i said, that is a popular route. they will have to go to the south to avoid that border region. >> we have received in the newsroom some amateur footage that appears to show a plane being brought down. it shows at least of the fireball that you can see in the distance, the fireball of what is reportedly the crash of the malaysia jetliner earlier today over ukraine. we had a map earlier in the coverage that shows the plane had been tracking used towards the russian border and it flew
about 100 miles over that territory, over that airspace before the incident occurred. beenkinner, we have talking about the geopolitical ramifications of this and also what this means not just for ukraine and not for the violence that has been going on between ukraine and between some of the russian-backed rebels, but what this means for the united states and russia, what it means for moscow and washington. planshis ratchet up any to try to bring this to a conclusion? does it ratchet up of more sanctions? we heard about the implementation of more sanctions. >> the timing is hopefully coincidental, but yesterday we imposed much more severe sanctions then previously put on. this -- in fact, the rebels -- if in fact rebels shut it down, it has a huge impact geopolitical, not just in ukraine but the way the international community, which
is kind of taken a hands-off approach with russia, they are tolerating the aiding of the rebels because it has not affected them directly and they depend on a natural gas, but if it turns out the rebels fired this, it will have a big impact. the rebels will have to do a lot of explaining and russia will have to account for their support -- >> mr. skinner, i'm sorry, in our last minute, does this mean that the international community is now going to be in a position where it is going to demand some sort of action and some sort of resolution to the violence? they don't want their planes flying over the area and if they have to, they honestly don't want their planes being shot down. >> i think this is going to have to change the equation. the status quo is clearly unacceptable. there has been a nascent civil war in the heart of eurasia, europe, the last 6 months. you cannot allow these things to continue like a cancer. >> patrick skinner of the soufan group, thank you so much for your time today.
>> general motors executives had another round of grilling on capitol hill today. the general counsel joined as ceo mary barra before the senate and lawmakers did not spare their recommendations that gm's top lawyer is not the right man for the job. mattberg auto expert miller is monitoring the hearing and joins me from the hill. >> good afternoon, mark. a number of senators recommended that mike milligan be doing something different than what he
is doing for general motors for now. claire mccaskill, who is opening -- who is heading the hearing, open up by saying she was shocked that the -- that he still holds this position there. senator richard blumenthal, who has been really aggressive with the gm and washington, laid into him with a number of questions about whether or not gm would continue to steal documents are tending to previous settlements, whether or not gm would list pepsi protection as far as victims in these kinds of crashes, and why -- in bankruptcy protection as far as victims in these kinds of crashes, and why they are not widening the scope with cars that can be included in ken fein berg's compensation fund. listen to this interaction. >> will they be free to answer those -- >> i will have to look at the agreements -- >> will you wait any confidentiality requirements? >> i would have to look at the
agreements themselves before i answer that question honestly, senator. >> i hope you will come back to this panel with different answers. if not, i would speculate suggest that this company is not well served by your continued -- >> i actually spoke briefly with mary barra when she stood in front of a number of reporters after the hearing today, and i asked her, listen, you have got a number of u.s. senators that think that your lead counsel is unfit for the job, how does that make you feel? she says she stands 100% beside him, that she is the -- that he is the right man for the job and she trust him completely and has no plans on firing him or excepting his is a accepting his resignation. as it stands now it looks like general motors will keep mike millikan in charge on the legal side of things.
he has been working at the company for 37 years. a lot of questions about his position today. mr.ike -- i'm sorry, matt, millikan in his defense said that when he found out about this in february he did take action and that some members of the legal team were dismissed. >> he did. he definitely said other people were responsible for the problem in the legal the apartment and he fired those other people. that is the kind of people that is that's kind of thing that does not sit well with senators after 4 hearings here and not getting the answers they want. over andcaskill said over again that there were death investigation notices and wondering why they didn't get to him. >> matt miller, thanks. before we take a quick break, let's show you one more time to mature footage of a fireball that may be related to the report that that the malaysian jet was shot down over eastern ukraine, killing all 295 people on board.
crashed and there is confusion over what has caused it and conflicting allegations about that. s&p 500 down 7/10 of 1%. selling stocks they were looking for what they perceived to be more safe investments. gold is one example, rising the most in 4 weeks today. to talk more about the market reaction across asset classes, i want to bring in michael reagan, our stocks editor. mike, let's start with you. we have been talking throughout the day about this selloff on concerns of what may be happening in ukraine and the implications of it. but it is not a huge selloff. >> the dow is down about 83 points. %.p down about 0.7 there is a lot of calls out there from her investigators predicting some -- from prognost
icators predicting some sort of correction in the market. they have predicted some 5% to 10% correction. the numbers vary with each, but basically they are all still bullish and the long-term. they believe this bull market has years to run but it has gone so long. the s&p 500 has gone 2 years without any big approaching 10% dip. it just makes people nervous when we go that long without any pullback. >> in the latest bloomberg global poll we talk about investors and a lot of people say that there is a bubble in stocks and now. >> about 15% believe we are already in a bubble. about half believe we are getting close to unsustainable levels. obviously a lot of nervousness about these evaluations. the s&p is about 18 times earnings, the most expensive it has been since 2010. still not quite dot-com bubble level valuation, but enough that something like this is going to make people nervous until they
get more information and know exactly what happened in ukraine. that said, there is a lot of people with money on the side lines waiting for dips like this to buy into. that is probably not why we are seeing as big of a spike down -- >> some of these are going out of stocks and into gold. the backup for gold, the fundamentals for gold on not necessarily positive right now, but we keep getting these shie -- these geopolitical flareups. >> most analysts are calling for gold to continue declining, it has been one thing after another and whenever you have this financialhether it is or geopolitical, the panic button is the buy gold button and that is what is happening today. >> you have been watching oil and wheat and those numeral to have more tangible effects from what is going on in russia -- not just the crash in ukraine, but the sanctions. they were overshadowed by the crash, but new sanctions were announced today.
>> including on the biggest russian oil and gas producers. unlike with gold come there is direct skin in the game when it comes to oil, and wheat as well. both russia and ukraine are big exporters of wheat and there is concern you might not get those supplies to market. >> great to get your perspective and depth of knowledge on stocks and commodities. appreciate it. we will be back in 30 minutes with more "on the markets." "street smart" is next. ♪