tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 30, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EST
the central bank is on its own. costco deploys cash to shareholder and qatar buys a piece of british airlines. forget the hummus and there will be bubbling of desert heat at the greeley house. so many sauces and so little time. this sis "bloomberg surveillance" and aware -- we are live from our buffalo wings headquarters in new york. >> breaking news tom knows how to say that. >> it is a little cute statement. we have a news flow that is extraordinary. let's get started. >> we begin in brussels where the european union government are getting ready to slap russian with more economic sanctions inhinting the technology the ambassador is not
fazed. he says the penalties are not working. >> they are not working. in political terms. they may be having an effect on both sides in the economic area but not politically. >> talks are scheduled to resume in belarus over the conflict in ukraine. government bonds higher with global debt markets poised for the best january on record as stocks have the best start since 1989. futures hell-- fell on the strength of the u.s. economy falling three basis points in london. >> a beat for amazon and miss for google. the amazon c.e.o. shows he can pull out profit posting net income of $214 million on sales of more than $29 billion. sales surged more than 12% in extended trading.
different for gaggle. it missed sales and the advertising business faced more. it climb to 14.5 billion and they were looking for 14.7 billion. i.p.o. for shake shack. raising $105 million amid strong investor demand. it sold five million shares at $21 each. it begins trading today. we will eat wings later. it is listed on the new york stock exchange and the symbol shack. >> very cool. we will have more on that. there is a game there weekend in the national football league. they want to reconsider the game ball protocol. it will look at everything from the required inflation levels to the chain of custody for footballs. you have to be kidding me. renewed attention as the league conducts an investigation looking into whether the new england football patriots
improperly deflated footballs they used during the a.f.c. championship win over the dreaded indianapolis colts. it is like eight other back stories and somebody is having a baby with the seattle seahawks. richard sherman. shows you what i know. we will try to get through there as quickly as we can because there is news out of russia and phil will have important breaking news in a moment. euro dollar 113.60. on to the next screen, please. the idea of currency, yen solid stronger the last 20 minutes off the news on russia. euro swiss pulls back. weaker swiss franc and ruble 68 when i walked in and plunging right now. here is the original monitor today which is the one-way bet on euro parity. this is a massive bet of euro weakening which has to do with russia. there is a fancy screen and this
is the idea i'm going to buy the euro and sell. >> you can't come out with 3-d charts and not explain. >> this is my checkbook after the kids are done with it. >> looks like a blanket. this is the volatility bet one year on parity euro. we move it to the clear and present news. here is ruble and credit suisse call for 82 ruble. they made that a 68 and now 71. >> what kremlinologists have been trying to do is the level of independence the central bank has. everybody guessed that the rate with remain unchanged and they would attempt to continue to defend at least with the ruble. that is not what happened. i think what we are seeing is a surprising amount of latitude that the central bank president has in russia. >> i think credit suisse bet up to 80 is a pretty big bet there
will be a severe banking crisis. >> the linkage is mortgage in russia and quality of banks. morgan stanley moving on gazprom. joining us on the set from washington, d.c. is phil. you have sources at the state department and we look forward a week or so to what secretary kerry will or will not do. what have you learned? >> there are questions whether he will travel to russia to meet with the leaders to discuss along the lines of what has been occurring and they have spoken regularly and met and there are reasons other than ukraine why that occurs. russia is crucial to what they are trying to do in iran and syria and even afghanistan. the big question we saw last night the visit is happening. i'm told be cautious on that.
but there have been talks going on. what is going on in ukraine has thrown a lot of things up in the air. five days ago the secretary was condemning russia and so was the president so flog diagnose-- nothing is definite. >> would he meet with mr. putin as well? >> it would be tough. when he is in the same place as vladimir putin will talk with him two minutes and that is extent. the optics are the biggest problem. the governments speak regularly as this becomes more public i'm skeptical that john kerry will go to russia. >> we go to berlin now. what a bit of news? >> there have been so many pieces of news. in is not just an e.u. or u.s. story but a night toe story.
there have been three times as many intercepts of russia jets as the previous year. he is urging all night nato companies from doing this. do you see any possibility of this happening? >> in terms of defense spending it is unlikely in any cash strapped european country. in germany there may be more for missions in northern iraq and those are mostly described as humanitarian. in terms of buying any new euro fighters i wouldn't bank on it. sweden is the only one that is upping their defense budget as a response to russia. one note on the bomber incursions. u.k. had to scramble jets. that is remarkable. >> we have the ruble almost to 72. >> but to hanz's points there were skwraeptsd -- jets and
that is the picture. >> this feels very cold war. we have not seen this since 1983. >> that is not a flight pattern into heathrow, is it? >> tom mentioned the ruble. it is heading to 72. credit suisse is heading to 82. a lot of this depends on what is happening to the banks and is there any chance russia is kicked out of swiss? >> well, the sanctions are an extension of the previous ones and the news out of brussels is they are able to keep their foreign policy on the same page. there was this fear greece would undermine it but don't oversell the sanctions. there sis nothing new. it is still 132 individuals that have travel restrictions and some banking restrictions on them. this was not an escalation by any stretch of the sanctions. >> what are the sanctions doing
to the german economy? >> well, look, yes, there are some -- there is some exposure. it is less the individual sanctions and more what it does to the german economy. on that way you have it both ways. if you see a four or 5% contraction in russia growth which is predicted what won't be good for the companies like seemness or adidas that have a lot of exports to russia and weak ruble there not going to help either. at the same time all this has to be taken in with the lower euro and weaker euro and that is really helping the exporters in the auto industry so that is on the plus side. then we have the whole deflation conversation but i will let you figure that out because the numbers are too grim to talk about. >> we will work on it. meantime from where you are do you get the sense that in brussels they are getting more comfortable with the identify of
the reason we have the success yesterday in diplomacy and some conciliatory remarks. is europe support comfortable with that? >> that is premature. we have to see what happens with the belgian finance minister meeting with his correspondentunterpart in greece. that is really the key moment. yesterday what you saw on the steps there of the prime minister's residence in athens was the niceties. today the negotiations start. they say he will be just listening but he will be reporting back to his counterparts in the e.u. and they have to figure out what is the opening bid and offer and how hostile with this be. >> thank you. we will continue our discussion on russia through "bloomberg surveillance" surveillance". so much of this is speed of news. howard has been involved in investment in mobile investment
and social and we will talk facebook and refuse lagsvelation and news feed but so much of the speed is due to your world. everything is sped up. where will we be in five years with news flow? >> your show always great to be here, your show is interesting and fun and wofrpgnky. the world i live in is very american. i say that as a canadian meaning i live in america the world of chipotle wild wings, shake shack, optimism. we laugh at ourselves. and roar, ego roar. we had putin, let's not forget he was man of the year in "time" magazine not long ago. it is comedic at some level the way i look at the world because i look in terms of social leverage the rest of the world is looking at it in terms of war and financial.
>> we are in ruble right now. >> my perspective i have watched this and said how can i play russia as an american sitting here with no idea what is going on and i look at the world in the world of internet and an option play all of russia i watch it implode and don't want to read headlines is maybe something like the index which is their google which is a long shot but tpif russia is going to work yendex. >> seahawks or patriots caught to the chase? >> i like the toronto argonauts. i stay loyal. >> robert shiller says buy russia. >> they are in my ears to announce i'm rooting for the patriots. olivia continue. >> you started this by saying you live in america and you bumped a canadian team.
execution deadline set passed thursday. japan is working to save a japanese journalist and jordanian air force pilot. >> the alibaba found are took a 1.4 billion drubbing as it posted a slump after missing revenue estimates. that gives the tycoon the title of china's richest person. he is still worth $26.3 billion. qatar airways is anchoring to the main ally had europe a 9.9% stake in i.a.g. it offers them better access to the americas an traffic flows through the gulf linebacker. it may raise the stake more in the future. that is the latest world news. >> this is the executiveclusive we have plans apartment 9:00 or 10:00
free breakfast. 11 wall street locations. please. get on this right now. >> how are you? >> i would love that. please. i think in is a game this weekend. >> yes. >> ahead of that the president will give less big game interview. he annually has an interview with the network broadcasting. this year it is on the over of the release of his spending blueprint for fiscal 2015. we will look at what kind of message the white house will want to convey. i have the cover. you might as well hold that up. roar, eagle, roar. this cuts to the center of the message. >> my favorite part of that is on the eagle's shoulder is another eagle. it is more and more american by the way it goes. that is what we have been
hearing from the white house. state of the union he was talking with democrats last night in philadelphia all about the economy and the good top line numbers are giving them room to push for things you wouldn't talk about the last couple of years. more spending programs. more focus on the middle class, lower class, tax credits. i'm hearing a lot of that. the phoeuz gamazing thing is it gives him huge viewership in a short period of time. tough to go wrong even when they did bill o'reilly with fox. all we are talking about it ukraine. i bet that doesn't come up in the interview. >> no, it is middle class chicks. that is what we heard in the state of the union and same message the republican party is pitching. what is the difference? >> democrats will let republicans try to talk about inequality until the cows come home. the president met with house democrats took a not so slightly veiled shot at mitt romney
talking about this saying that is funny based on your financial situation and 47% comment. let's have the debate over and over. we talked about quickly what does middle class mean to both sides. made a lot of calls. neither side can define what it means. that should underscore the difficulty we have the debate. >> to me it is i would say upper quartile. it means new york, air b and b. hotels uber chipotle. >> how many golf courses do uyou own? >> i'm a member in a country called chula vista 10 minutes from the mexican border, san diego. it is very extensive. >> i do not believe you are middle class. >> what i want to tell you is everybody has in the hand the power to jump in front of lines
with an aoububer around has the power to use hotels tonight. they can spend less money. >> the question i think do the -- the people the president will target with the pregame interview sunday are people that are in cities that don't have access to uber around have not heard of air b and b. that is important between the both but with all due respect middle class incomes have been falling and i'm not sure they have the disposable income -- >> i have disposable income to stay at a nice hotel. i choose to use uber and eat at chipotle and shake shack. these are all middle class opportunities. >> did you saeuy buffalo wild wing wings because of the c.e.o. >> the pizza rev thing will be
interesting. >> i don't think the internet has done for the middle class what you think. >> it is a point of debate. russia on the move. the next hour with russia and finance that you are experiencing in this february peter fisher will join us. look for that on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television and bloomberg business in the next hour. ♪
central america six million young central americans enter the labor force the next decade. if opportunity is not the western -- >> is he running for president? >> it is not clear. he never said he is not but remember last summer when we saw tens of thousands of children from central america turn up he is making the argument the cost of investing in a secure central america is not as high as letting violence fester so the administration will ask for a billion dollars. that is not a lot. >> for these three it is. central america is the biden portfolio. we talk about the speed of the news cycle. the biggest story in the united states the one that undercut immigration is undocumented child immigrants. nobody talks about it. this is joe biden's focus and one of his foreign policy focuses and he's been able to
get $1 billion in the budget proposal not hard. >> he has to think about his legacy whether he runs for president or not. >> another interesting issue on the twitter question what did the u.s. get ride that europe didn't. we would love your thoughts about economic management. tweet us at the stpaeupbls. there is "bloomberg surveillance" on your tablet, ear phone and tom is getting on a harley.
>> good morning "bloomberg surveillance" russia front and center ruble well through 70, printing to 71 earlier. >> republicans have approved the keystone 62-36 vote sets up a long awaited fight with president obama who promised a veto. nine democrats backed it. house passed its version this month differences have to be resolved before a final version is sent to the president. more bad news for air bag maker honda investigating a crash in houston that is the fifth u.s.
death linked to the device. according to a lawsuit the victim was killed in a honda accord he bought in april. the dealership had not performed a recall on the air bag. california is grappling with how to pay for road and bridge repairs. the governor is preparing bills to help them pay for a $59 billion backlog of fixes and trying to curb gas consumption. his legislative package has several proposals including extended car lane pools for drivers. >> let's talk about facebook without question front and center faculty re configureconfigure howard we ask as a news feed. here is the facebook page of tom keene. here is olivia sterns.
brandon greeley and rachel, john. warren. >> that is just a shot of my nostrils. terrible. >> but it is a news feed. facebook was what it was social network it is new. where are they with that news feed in 24 months? >> i see the news as a person who lives on soft woods which is a derivative of twitter i live in a page that is different. everybody has their own page. i don't use facebook but my wife just discovered it. i don't use pinterest. i have a pressure to understand snapchat. facebook is done. snapchat is -- when we sit here next year we will be blown away that snapchat is blowing people away. the u.i. of the snapchat world is something my kids 15 and 17
kid all their news. how did he understand that was happening without turning on the tv. on snapchat stories. what they think a reporter is different than what you think a reporter is. >> snapchat is not just about sex? >> it is for me. i'm just saying -- i can't even use it. the kids have moved on because they don't trust that brand. >> that brand you are pointing at facebook. >> yes. think about what google has done with the numbers you gave at the beginning of the show. kids adults, middle class go to google and put information they use not against us. there is a 15-year-old company we trust. >> the advantage is all the teenagers i know which is a hand ful snapchat me and i barely know how to use it. i know how to make a video. >> very hard. >> not really sure of the
utility but the point is this is a social niche. >> it is socially cure rated. the twitter you are locked on that stream. we want our ability to turn on to get what we want. you are not that person. you are a news person. >> rand paul is all about air products. >> tom, did you know the i.m.f. criticized the irish failure it impose a bailout this morning. >> i saw that. it may not be true. that could have been written by a dude behind a wall. how can we prove that? >> tom to your question whether the president will be using it who did the president gave interviews to a woman with green lips because she is a youtube star. >> rand paul has been on snapchat and everybody will follow him.
>> what do you do on snap chat? >> not what tom thinks. >> stand,. we will do a cross check that. is snapchat. >> what you have to understand is we have pegged it as something that is dirty and it is nothing like it. >> that is a "bloomberg surveillance" break there. i was in davos and one of the most interesting interviews richard adelman does this trust barometer and it is off the cliff and in part to his play he has lionel barber talking about i.m.f. ireland and you are going i don't trust it. >> your world our world you are 15 or 20 years older than me -- >> wow, he is cruel. >> in raoublsubles. the kids' world is they don't know what schwab and fidelity is. whoever owns snapchat could be
anybody. they are gambling on that. >> i'm impressed. >> look at that. i'm watching 15 and 17-year-olds grow up in ned in this case, savannah chat and -- snapchat. >> i'm downloading snapchat this week. >> you have nobody to use. >> we will practice. you need to practice. >> subject for a short story. tom keene on snapchat. i want a live feed of it. >> too much talking. howard where will the news feed be in 24 months? >> it won't be the way you see t. it will be stories. it will be stories creativitied by people stitched together using snapchat or twitter, a little bit of facebook, instagram is where the influences are so sales and products and branding will come through instagram. instagram will own the brands. twitter has messed up but in 24
>> i signed up for snapchat. we get to the single best chart. >> last one without snap chat. we have discussed fast food and we wondered is mcdonald's doing poorly or chipotle well. that is our single best chart. we looked at movement in a couple of restaurant chains over the last eight years and what is the outlier? you see the white that is chipotle. here is the deal. if you look at that bundle of restaurants it does not matter which you pick. if you look at fast food or fast casual it always looks the same. there is a bunch of restaurant along the bottom and then
chipotle just soaring. we are looking at shake shack shares opened today and howard, how would you look at this? we have been comparing everything to chipotle but it sis in its own class. if my daughter knew i sold her stock 300 points ago sealed -- she would kill me. the most important thing about -->> you talk to your daughter about accounts? >> she trades. >> you are middle class? >> i'm educating them in the language of finance. that is an important language. everybody talks you have to learn spanish or chinese. the tape is available to everybody and when you learn to read the tape which is what i do you can learn to read the markets. it is a tool. reading that tape. but back to chipotle we have to
assume the bull market continues. and oil at $40 has helped. but what chipotle has done is stunning in a city like new york they are everywhere. and you don't see any fancy logo. you walk down the street and there is one underground. people feel good about eating there. the food is served fast. they get to make it on their own. there is that brand feeling we associate with starbucks. i don't like the coffee but they have there brand going to. >> i think you hit on it. people feel good eating t. we are talking about this yesterday figure out what the difference is between -- i think mcdonald's tried to go healthy and wanted lower calorie count. what people think of healthy is not low-calorie it is well sourced beef. >> they got it right. there much investors in chipotle
and google sold at i.p.o. for whatever reason. mcdonald's was chipotle. they sold it at the i.p.o. that chart would be different if the mcdonald's held their stake lake -- stake if they had not sold their chipotle stock. they owned t. they were genius. >> it didn't change the massive. this massive mcdonald's system from product. >> they were fine if they held it. >> the point is it came out they were not going to only use pigs a certain way. >> mcdonald's doesn't use pigs. it is some contained of conglomeration of stuff -- some kind of conglomeration. think of amazon and zap possess mcdonald's failed to learn. there is fear of change there because you have executives that just have an easy thing.
don't change things. >> but the thing that is most amazing about chipotle is somebody from ohio who lived off it throughout college the price difference. it has gone up a dollar or more with no negative impact whatsoever. it is skyrocketing. it was $5$5.20 when i was in college and now $6.75 now. you eat it. >> starbucks has that too. >> lets look at our top photos. i have been quiet because i'm trying to figure out snapchat. two photos. >> you will be the leading guy. >> you are going to lead finance on snapchat. >> number three, demonstrators swarm behind henry kissiner in an armed services hearing and called for him to be arrested blaming him for bombings in the vietnam war. >> go back to the previous photo.
is that secretary schultz the older guy to the right corner? >> that is. dr. kissinger is the young guy. there are 180 years of american public service there. here is secretary kissinger and in the bloomberg business week in fine form. whatever you think of him, he was in fine form. >> sharp for his age. in response he reportedly called the protesters low life scum. >> mccain did. >> the young guy. >> john mccain is the chairman, brings in the wise men, has the hearing and doesn't hold his tongue when codepink start to show up. >> i heard they showed up with the weapons of mass destruction door of trade. they were in your face kind and made the protest. next photo, please. >> they have a great
relationship with capital home security. you have the tiger photo. >> we appreciate it on "bloomberg surveillance" playing a shot on the first hole during the first round of the waste management phoenix in scottsdale. with a crowd of more than 100,000 people watching. he scored 73 going two over par which is good for tom but terrible for him. he is 106 in a 132-man field. >> that last picture what i love there is he has his trademark swing grimace with all of his teeth. >> and he is 39. >> he is 39. >> he is 39? >> yes. time moves on. it waits for no man. >> number one, tom likes this. the first ice climb of frozen niagara falls. he climb 142 feet on the new
york side. tom is worked up. i have no idea why. in some places it is only one inch thick. 150,000 tons flow over at 62 miles an hour. >> this has the aura of 19th century. >> what breaks my heart is those that climbed the wall were going for national gee graphic adventure of the year and didn't get it. >> that is wild. >> that is when you lived in western new york the parents inflict on you winter trip. >> did you just say that your parents made you do this as a child? >> they made us go it niagara falls and stay on the canadian side which is in the background and put you there and say if you don't brave next year we are throwing you in the river and the whirlpool is frightening. >> look how you turned out. >> another trip into the cold
>> this is a serious network. i'm ready. let's get to the headlines. >> we begin athens where the new leader says he won't bring any vices on the creditors. he promised stability. he pent about two hours with the e.u. president. it was his first face-to-face meeting with european officials since his election victory last sunday. they rebounded from historic lows wednesday. boeing will sell aircraft to the tokyo hub worth $2.2 billion. they will buy eight from boeing and seven from airbus. they are said for delivery between fiscal 2015 and 2021. china and u.s. turn up heat on kim jung un trying to build
momentum for talks. kim may have himself to blame for the squeeze. he suckggested he would be open to meeting the president of south korea. he will make heusis first trip to russia in may. bilateral talks would be the first steps. that is the latest world news. >> i need to point something out i find slightly distressing. while olivia was reading tom was praying his kim hand motions. >> that is a good one. will there be wings? she started as a tax specialist and became c.e.o. of buffalo wild wings and made it a household name. 1000 restaurants. sally smith is withes. us. one reason why americans are expected to eat 1.25 billion wings in the super bowl.
middle class. >> come off of it, howard. sally, here is my formula for buffalo wild wings. tv, wings and you can take your kids. what was your formula when you started with 35 restaurants? >> a college bar is how it started. as we were able to expand we found if uyou enjoyed buffalo wild wings in college you enjoyed them when you started having kids and still wanted to go out. somebody blogged about it. it is the bar you can take your kids to. >> i have taken my kids to buffalo wild wings. i think you have to put a dollar in the jar. but you say that you grew up sort of as one of your dad's guys playing golf although your handicap has suffered since you went into the restaurant business but when you are trying to describe buffalo wild wings what does the restaurant need to have? is it just sports or wings? >> a combination. i think that the wings drive people in. we have great wings. they are fresh never frozen.
best viewing experience. no bad seat in the house and you need the combination of guests. it is that fan base. they come to cheer. if you are traveling and you go to buffalo wings you may not know anyone going in but you will coming out. >> you lived there in college, right? >> as an ohio state graduate there are a couple of things on campus you need to know. will is ohio stadium and buffalo wild wings on the corner. then somewhere else a library and class rooms and things of that nature but it is ohio stadium but a half mile way three stories where everybody goes constantly and now pretty much every time you go back to ohio for a game that is where we meet before and after the game. my question is, i'm from ohio and that is my place. do you tailor any differently
how you treat buffalo wild wings in ohio or manhattan or a big city? >> there is some change. certainly the footprint. we like each restaurant to look a little bit unique. but then we will tail are it with the sports memorabilia for something that is local and the general managers get out an work with the local teams. we like to sponsor a lot of high school teams. it is the place people go after the game, after practice. >> that works in tallahassee but you just opened one in the philippines. has it changed there? >> no. american brands very strong internationally. we opened thursday in manila:we will tail are some -- tail are some of the sauce. >> not all american brands are doing well. in the time your share price has again through the roof mcdonald's have flat-lined.
what do you think they got wrong? >> i think that you always have to be aware of what the change in tastes are. mcdonald's certainly has done a great job over the years and my guess is they will come back. you have to be willing to change. listening to early commentary it is one thing we're thinking about. >> is it obvious a formula or was obvious, sports wings. but 35 it 1,000 restaurants. what is the hardest part of the execution of that? >> making sure our culture stays the same. as you think of what you want to bring for those first guests that went to ohio state how do you mac sure they will have -- make sure they will have that same experience in austin or los angeles. it is helping and training the team members. >> are these free range? >> some of them might be. they are fresh. i know that. >> thank you so much. i will go through the forex report right now.
sanctions feared the finance minister speaks in moscow. the russian economy will prevail -- the ruble plunges this morning. costco the ploy cash to shareholders. just as qatar buys a piece of british airlines. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm tom keene. joining me, scarlet fu and brendan greeley. >> actually, i'm olivia. >> sorry. >> european union governments are ready to slap russia with more sanctions. extended blacklist of 132 people. russia's a master to the eu -- ambassador to the eu set the penalties are not working. >> they are not working in
political terms. they may be having an effect on both sides on the economic area, but not political. >> talks are scheduled to reserve today and belarus over the conflict in ukraine. during its monthly sum to 11% as a new government took over. trading volume 27% greater than that 30 day average. climbing 7% this month. >> a beat for amazon and a miss for google. amazon's ceo shows he can still post a profit. the profit followed two straight periods of losses. a different story for google. missing sales and profit estimates as the advertising business faced more competition
on mobile devices. analysts were looking for $14.7 billion. a tasty ipo for shake shack, raising $105 million. shake shack sold 5 million shares at $21 each after offering them for 17-19 dollars each. it is listed on the new york stock exchange as shak appeared >> the national football league will consider protocol. everything inflated requires certain level -- getting down to the process of it all. renewed attention comes as the league conducts an investigation , looking into whether the new england patriots deflated the footballs that used during the previous game against the indianapolis colts. the data check this morning is
absolutely extraordinary. features down but the ruble takes it all. the ruble off the central banks stunning action. they reduced the interest rate. >> nobody expected this. everyone assumed the central bank wanted to hold onto the ruble. they said we had to take some measures to protect the russian economy. >> i put the chart on bloomberg radio plus. we are getting there rather quickly. >> protect the ruble, don't predict the ruble -- they decided they can do it. >> the russian finance minister speaking to reporters right now. he says the fx situation has currently called down. like a finance minister putting his head in the sand.
>> we have these headlines out of the eu leaders -- peter fisher senior director of blackrock's investment institute , now advising all of blackrock. he joins us this morning. we will go to the options. how few degrees of freedom does vladimir putin have this morning? >> with respect to the exchange rate, very little. thomas jordan and the swiss national bank found out how hard it is to maintain when you are a credible bank. russia is bigger and out today keeping the interest rates high just was not going to work. >> how fragile are the russian banks? >> i don't have a thought on that.
>> see how he dodged that? years of practice. >> if you don't know something don't answer. >> what about the swiss banking system? is there any chance that russia will get kicked out of the system? >> no. i don't think they will. it might happen to individual banks but not the whole system. i think that would be chaotic. no matter how strong of sanctions you want, that would not be never once collective interest. >> the first deputy prime ministers saying russia is going to need to restructure its economy. that was a signal that this is not going to change. the ruble will keep depreciating.
they will have to change the economy to deal with it. >> absolutely. we have had seven years of quantitative easing all over the world. money has been free everywhere. even with japan and euro, that changes things. the monetary core is on a path over the next five years to do something different and places like russia, it's different when the standard changes direction. >> we will speak to mohamed el-erian. the question is this word of the moment divergence or separation. his russia free of the united states? his russia separate from these other issues or do we all adapt? >> the ardennes verging down there path for their own structural reasons. it is compounding on itself.
-- they are diverging down their path. >> a russian bomber flying over u.k. now su summoned to explain what's going on. >> some of the volatility at the end of last year and coming into this year, clearly. when ukraine first imploded on the news, we still had qe in full throttle. now, the background has changed and here we are. >> it was amazing last year how markets were not indifferent but not all that excited about what's happening in the ukraine. we are slowly learning what's happening as russia probes to see where nato will defend. >> a few days ago a strident essay on mr. putin.
his only viable strategy is to remain in power -- foreign military adventures are most appealing when the domestic front is on fire. what is the strength of european banking? the short-term paper market -- what is that strength of our solvency and liquidity? >> hooton's behavior -- vladimir putin's behavior is making the system look better. the world is a risky place, even if you were a european bank and not all that tidy, you sure look better relative to the rest of the world. his behavior politically makes europe and the u.s. draw closer together and mix it easier for people to reach agreements. >> looking at the fixed income all over the world, we used to
throw russia and with a basket of developing economies. >> it was always a mistake. >> interesting. >> it is a petro economy, in a different stage of development. we don't think of industrialized come in developed nations being that dependent on a single commodity. >> we will talk about the interest rate environment. what have you learned the last few weeks at blackrock? when you look at the u.s. fixed income market, what is the fisher observation? >> the shape of the curve still worries me. the market is underestimating the extent to which the fed will have to move eventually. that does not mean they will do it quickly or be patient about it. they're coming to the realization that zero is the wrong rate. >> do they move discreetly and stay within a sub 1% bound or does it go to greens greenspan's
language of measured? >> they will not do raising rates on a train schedule. but patient and deliberate, i would expect. they would like to find a place where the funds rate -- >> and observe the data from their. >> so much more to talk about including the impact of negative yields. it is time to ask you are twitter question of the day. what did the u.s. get right that europe got wrong? we want to hear your thoughts. what policies have been working in america that are not working in europe? we will be back in just a moment. ♪
-- google is a boring, old blue-chip company. it is not diversifying in the way that it should. when we are costly looking at this she is pointing out that we should be putting google in the big blue. >> peter fisher with us. they are a blue-chip company but they want to play by a different book. they are not deploying cash to shareholders. >> think they are trying to move in that direction. i'm on an advisory committee for google's investment process. i think they are being thoughtful -- a lot of companies face the same problem.
you have cash and active investors and anxious investors. they are in a hurry. >> 1.8% dividend. that is a different scale. >> the big news for me is the apple-microsoft turnaround. apple being valued double what microsoft is. how much churn there is in the top thousand companies in america. >> how much credit do you give mr. cook? executive of the decade? >> my kids and i had their stuff. i think it works pretty well. there will be churn. there has been a lot of it under the surface the last five years. >> do you see any inkling that europe pulled will develop tendencies -- >> not fast enough.
>> good morning, everyone. let's get to some world and news. >> the fate of two hostages held by islamic state unknown at this hour. the execution deadline passed thursday. japan is working to save the japanese journalist andrew heaney an air force pilot. the militants are demanding a prisoner exchange. -- japanese journalist and
jordanian air force pilot. an unstable wrubel and runaway inflation. weakening beyond 70 two the dollar. jack ma posting a record slump after missing revenue estimates. -- an unstable wruble and runaway inflation. >> thank you so much. futures at -14. >> we have nicholas burns, and a knowledge expert on everything russian. we have so much news today out of russia. -- an acknowledged expert on everything russian.
a significant problem they will have to deal with in the future despite everything else is all of these mortgages they have that citizens have in foreign currencies. russia is dealing with a basket of problems right now. not just the currency rate. >> they certainly are and the russian government has more problems they anticipated. i don't think president putin felt the price of oil would descend to where it is today. he did not really believe the west would be able to mount these very tough sanctions over the last six months because russia has been intervening in ukraine. now, you have a lot of investor sentiment that russia is not a place you can and base -- invest safely. this is the design president obama and angela merkel had to drive up the economic costs for intervention in ukraine. >> would you please link the
fragility of their financial system into their politics? >> right now, there is no question that president putin has a lot of authority. he has the support of the oligarchs. if you can't support the oligarchs in the long-term, that is his achilles heel. he does not have to worry about popular movements because he has been so authoritarian and he has cracked down on popular movements and freedom of speech. he does have to worry about th e support of the wealthy people around him who will continue to be rich of the system persists. >> what are we to make of the fact that there are three times as many intercepts of russian planes as they were in 2013? we have news of a russian bomber
, a cold war moment, intercepted over the u.k. what is the endgame for all this constant probing for them? >> the russians are trying to show that they are still a great power. vladimir putin is someone who takes his cues from the past. he wants to rebuild that some of the strength and glory of the soviet union. he feels the united states and europe are too powerful. there is a limit to what he can do. he is rational. he knows the united states and germany and nato are far stronger than he is. you will see a lot of action. russia will mobilize its entire baltic sea fleet and air force in a show of force. >> this is critical. olivia sterns has been talking about airplanes over the english channel all morning. please extend baltic exercises
to these overt and singler fronts by russia. >> as u.s. ambassadors to nato i was an opponent of all that russia was doing. i remain an opponent. russia is almost a paper tiger. a country that cannot contest with the west and nato militarily. you see these show up forces. they have been flying near the united kingdom. flying planes in the mediterranean sea. it is a show of force to try to remind people that russia is still great. russia has a weak economy and a declining population. it has not reformed its economy. it will not be a great power 30 years from now. >> economists writing that the plan is a sign of mr. putin's
desperation. >>. he is on the defensive. it wanted to have a trade agreement with the european union. because of the temerity of the ukrainians president putin invaded crimea and has been fundamentally stabilizing -- destabilizing eastern ukraine. ukraine is not going to become a member of nato but they do seek a feature of economic integration with the west. putin is time to prevent that from happening. immersing the politics of the 1970's and 1980's. >> thank you for helping us understand the stream of headlines out of russia this morning. >> i believe there is a game this weekend. go daddy pulled it's at about
of the bill earlier this month. differences have to be resolved before a final version is sent to the president. more bad news for takata. honda investigating a fatal crash. the victim was killed in a honda accord that he bought in april. china and the west turning up the heat on kim jong-un. diplomats in asia trying to build momentum for formal talks. he suggested he would be open to meeting the president of south korea. bilateral talks would be a first step forward -- >> on the global economy, the new mediocre -- janet yellin may
have all the best -- collapsing price and negative interest rates. peter fisher has a more optimistic outlook. deflation, justin rates -- adjusted rates -- what is the environment mean? >> step back and think clearly about real borrowing costs. 100 years ago, if a kansas corn farmer faced falling prices of corn, his income was falling and his debt payments were fixed. that debt burden went up. the factory worker had rising really income. we have to think clearly about what it means to borrow. business today have positive operating margins, 10% or better. the army are borrowing money for
free. not because inflation is low -- we have to untangle that. >> bringing microeconomics into the view -- let's take the germans. a weaker euro is a plus for germany. these are good things. >> that is unquestionably a good thing. not a good thing from the low yields in europe. they make money on the term premium. the spread between short-term and long-term. when it gets flat it's hard for a lender to make money. the credit side of the economy does not perform well. that is the gamble with qe >>. do you look for more mario
draghi qe? >> with the japanese have a demonstrated is it is hard to stop once you get started. the fed went on for more years than they originally planned. mario draghi is doubling down. they have to pick it up. >> what will be the ramification in the first five minutes, the first day, the first week of janet yellen began to raise rates? >> shorted paper will go down in price. what you see in the old curve now is the view that we live in a disinflation areaary world. whether it's june, july, august september that is inside
baseball. looking at the shape of the old curve is a challenge for the fed because they can jack up the short end but it's not jacking up the long and, it is flattening it. that will be bad for credit creation. >> this is all elite financial talk. what does this mean for america's middle class? >> probably good news. the oil price shock is a rise in real incomes. the fed will not? borrowing costs anytime soon -- jack up borrowing costs anytime soon. >> it will be a real trend here on "bloomberg surveillance" this year. the ambiguities about what we're talking about from 35,000 feet. >> let's check the markets. futures down by 13 points right now. the yield on the 10 year trading at 1.72%.
the euro ever so strongly against the dollar. nymex crude just a touch higher still trading below $45 a barrel in new york. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." we look to a football game this weekend. >> are you ready for the super bowl? . -- victoria's secret is. this feisty teaser -- we see the angels andin full football gear. it is purely a teaser for the full version they will allow. this goes to show how intense the buildup is. with us on set a reporter for bloomberg businessweek.
he picks the puppies that star in the halftime add. what is the better play here? hot chicks or puppies? >> you can never go wrong with bikinis. the trend is toward this heartfelt, longer than 62nd trying to swell some tears. we saw that in chrysler with the ode to detroit and at last year budweiser with a huge hit with the puppy. >> a tearjerker. >> adorable. go daddy misfired on this. >> may be. they are taking the ironic track on this trend. they had to pull it. these people worshiping out there puppy in a box. go daddy has been a business
where awareness is everything. >> the at length is extending. you can do a lot more in two minutes then you can with 30 seconds. >> 40% of ads are now one minute or longer on the super bowl. 22 of the paid ads were one minute or longer. half of those were these somber ads. >> you also have humor. i want to play kim kardashian's t-mobile at. -- t-mobile add. >> millions of gigs of unused data are taken back by wireless copies. tragic. data you pay for that can be used for seeing my makeup, my backhand, my outfits, my vacations and my outfits. sadly, all lost. please, help save the data. >> pushing the limits at
t-mobile. i think it works. >> that is the classic rhythm of a super bowl ad. 30 seconds, a joke brought to you by a brand. >> it used to be you developed the added over the course of the super bowl itself. you would move it forward. the super bowl is the launch itself for the added which will then play forever. >> there was the famous moment when apple made an ad for the super bowl. now, people make their ads for their super bowl and it's the centerpiece for a larger digital campaign. >> will blackrock be advertising in the super bowl? >> i don't think so, but i'm not aware. >> the idea of wall street reconnecting with main street.
i can't think of a better place to do it. >> the etf platform has been advertising in sports. >> nhl hockey. what is the biggest surprise? $4.5 million. what will you be watching? i will have my buffalo wild wings -- what are you watching the third quarter? >> we will look to see if people -- if any brand tries to push the envelope that does not have the ability to do the kind of credible, authentic, heartwarming at. >> are we still going to disneyland at the end of the game? >> they still do that, but not in the life spot -- life spot. >> should richard sherman skip the super bowl to see the birth of his son? >> we will talk about that on
i want to bring your attention to amazon results. jeff bezos showed he can still pull out a profit, posting net income of $214 million. amazon had a loss of $241 million for the full fiscal year. following two straight periods of loss. they are still holding at 11% in the premarket right now. a really interesting year for jeff bezos. they are trying a few moonshot things. he is still growing sales. how long do you get a pass? >> the cfa institute should use
emma stone as a case study. -- amazon as a case study. >> jeff bezos and i share a taylilor. shake shack starts trading today. betty has an interview coming up in one hour. do i buy a shake shack burger or the stock? >> or get it delivered by drone? it is interesting that shake shack is doing an ipo the week we saw the immense change at mcdonald's. a tale of two burgers. dolls has 36,000 outlets. shake shack has 63 around the world. -- mcdonald's has 36,000 outlets. they went abroad their price range -- above their price range.
they will expand to 400 stores across the world. they are pretty popular in the middle east. the big question for shake shack , can they continue to put out these gourmet burgers at the same price with the same taste? can they do that to the skill that mcdonald's -- in the way mcdonald's has? >> is there a ceiling on how many outlets he can build? will they hit 1000 or 6000? what is the upper limit? >> the worst answer to any question would be to say i think there is a limit. there should be no limit. that is what the ceo should always say. no limit to how big this company can grow. can they do it at that same quality?
>> good morning, everyone. we need some headlines right now. >> african leaders want to strengthen -- troops to combat boko hurrah. -- boko haram has killed more than 13,000 people since 2009. the group has put pressure on the nigerian president who is seeking reelection next month. qatar airways anchoring itself to its main ally in europe. the parent company of british
airways. offering them better access to the americas and traffic flow through its goldulf hub. a big purchase by japan's largest airline. buying 15 aircraft from boeing and airbus. the deals are worth a combined $2.2 billion. they will buy a planes from boeing and seven from airbus. -- eight planes from boeing and seven from airbus. >> very good. on oil and america, and eventful friday. the joys of cheap oil. peter fisher has spent a career at the fed, the treasury and now blackrock. considering the ambiguities of seismic international events that she looks at a dollars 74 gallon and says positive for america. -- international events -- he
looks at $1.74 a gallon and says positive for america. >> the market has gotten wound up about the losers. it is obvious who the losers are. >> the winners are less noisy. >> harder to figure out who would will be. walmart or pepsico. they will be out there. it is a huge boost to gdp and real disposable income. >> plus 3%? what is the fisher optimism? >> three or better. the oil boost to gdp is somewhere between 2.5-three basis points. it will be positive over the coming year. i'm proud of the fed for looking through this. the ecb and bank of japan are struggling with -- it's not a
problem. it is a boost to real incomes. the fed looked through that. >> what about actual consumer confidence? do pros care about consumer confidence? >> i certainly do. i have been focusing on a component of that. americans income expectations. americans thought to their income would go up 3% a year. 2008, it drops to zero. for the last five years, they thought my income is not going up. it has skyrocketed back up to 2%. that's where the confidence comes from. they feel good about their employment prospects going forward. they will feel better about spending. retail sales come slowly. it just jumped up.
that is a big shot in the arm for the economy. >> the middle class -- you have a different view of this than the politicians. how do you define middle-class? you see a sharp distinction between a republican middle-class and democrat milk labs? middle-class? >> the median income -- i don't want to be partisan. we all should focus on theat part of the income distribution and stop fussing about the high-end. >> there is no policy fix? >> no. comes when we focus on the real productive potential of our economy. we will see some churn here.
that is the only way we get real middle-class incomes to rise is with productivity. >> we talking about winners and losers. what about the high-yield energy sector? >> that's what i was alluding to. when you can borrow at a negative real rate, it feels really good. their income is way down here to oil collapsing. the companies that are two highly levered will have to pull back. others in the retail space or consumption space will do much better. we are not seeing -- used to seeing this churn. it is a positive. >> with your resume and the law background, i want to talk about the american can doism. are we asking too much of government as we try to increase
gdp? are we becoming too public policy centric? >> i'm sympathetic that we want to use government for good. the government chair of gdp is better off when it's smaller. we would rather see private sector job growth -- we ought to be focused on that. we ought to stick to it. >> of course we would rather see it. one of the main trendlines has been dramatic decline in government jobs over the last five years. we would love to see more private jobs but what happened was we hammered state jobs that are now gone forever. >> i'm afraid one of the negative consequences of qe is it encourages the substitution of capital for labor. >> the tax cuts at the state
level -- a lot of republican governors. the role of public policy, whether or not we are looking to public policy for economic management. it brings us to our twitter question. what did the u.s. get right that europe got wrong? "timing is everything. all in the trigger before it was too late." "u.s. is one country legislated by divers leadership." "the u.s. fiscal policy in monetary policy does not argue every night and have to sleep on the couch for over a decade." it is on the cover of bloomberg businessweek and the president's message to the american people. the u.s. economy humming at a 5% clip. we will get fourth-quarter gdp
at 8:30 a.m. "bloomberg surveillance" will continue on radio. it is time for the agenda. this u.s. gdp number. we are looking for a 3% read. the jobs market has been humming along. the president says this is good news. the unemployment rate at 5.6%. >> the people who had their fingers crossed are the democrats. how to take advantage of a good economy. where we do not have good economic numbers is russia. quotes from the head of nato and the deputy prime minister and the central bank governor in russia. we will see what happens as the ruble starts to float.
>> the ruble holding above $70 -- 70 rubles to the u.s. dollar. i'm struck by the cover, a russian bomber intercepted. it feels very cold war. >> what is your super bowl routine? >> i don't have a super bowl routine. watch it until that time. >> i will watch it until we get prepped for "bloomberg surveillance." >> i'm rooting for the patriots. i grew up in boston. >> in the dark days of the patriots. >> i used to sneak in and watch them for free. >> does deflate gate make a pat's victory bittersweet? i'm rooting for the pats too.
90 minutes away from the opening bell and a lot of news already -- a surprising move out of the russian national bank. speaking of national banks, the president of the federal bank of st. louis, james bullard, will join us. how patient is he? he has said let's move. my guest host this hour -- earnings from google are out. we will tell you what is juicing shares. here are the top stories this morning. in a surprise decision russia cut its key interest rate, citing concerns over a looming recession. the bank had hiked rates in recent months. the move sent the ruble sliding against the u.s. dollar.