tv In the Loop With Betty Liu Bloomberg March 6, 2015 8:00am-10:01am EST
minutes away from the opening bell. we have a great lineup are you this morning. the jobs report out in 30 minutes. mohammed el-erian, jason furman alan krueger mike turner of ohio and the renowned investor and ceo of 3rd avenue. a huge lineup this morning. the numbers may be slightly delayed due to the weather in washington. the weather is creating havoc around the country. here is a look at our top stories this money. vladimir putin meeting with the european leader since the first time since the ukrainian conflict. sitting down with the italian prime minister in moscow. they say they agree on the cease-fire efforts in ukraine. hillary clinton's e-mails being
checked to see if she broke security rules while secretary of state. using a private computer server. the state department is try to determine if they included sensitive information. john kerry says clinton has been cooperative. >> last year, the department sent a letter to representatives of the former secretaries of state requesting they submit any records in their possession for proper preservation. in response, secretary clinton provided the department with e-mails that span her time at the state department. betty: she's omitted 55,000 pages of e-mails to the state department. the nation's biggest banks could survive a financial crisis. the passed the first phase of the stress test. one had barely enough capital to
make the cut. goldman sachs. they won't be allowed to match last year's dividends and share buybacks. apple's new mobile payment system is giving thieves a new way to steal. they are doing bogus buying on apple pay using stolen credit cards. banks are now asking users to call them before account counter activated on the apple service. new questions about how soon runways should be closed during snowstorms. the delta jet skidded into a fence, stopping just feet from an icy bay. six people were hurt. the runway looked to be in good shape. >> this particular runway had been plowed shortly before the incident. pilots on other planes reported good braking action. betty: person 40 is recovering
from injuries after crash landing in a vintage plane. -- harrison ford is recovering. those are your top headlines. back to our top story this morning, hopefully not too scary here. the great jobs data out in 30 minutes. employers probably added 235,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is expected to take down slightly to 5.6%. the strongest three months of job growth on average since 1997. joining us with a preview is carl and david pabart, the ceo of 3rd avenue. we know there is going to be some sort of weather affect.
what other chances that could distort these numbers? >> a lot of people roll their eyes when economists start blaming the weather forbade economic data. we learned our lesson last winter at this time when we had severe winter weather it affected everything from retail sales to employment to gdp. we would be remiss not to pay attention to these potential weather stories. you watch these impairments due to weather. people who worked reduced hours or did not show up at all. those will be the first clues. they may come out later than usual. the release was impacted by bad weather yesterday. >> it will take some time for us to get those numbers out on the broadcast. the weather is going to impact
if we see a big negative surprise on these numbers. does that make february a throw away? >> if it is a weak number, we have to ask ourselves, is it due to the weather or some other more nefarious factor? we have moving components in the economy such as the dramatic strengthening of the dollar. we focus on this report because we are two weeks ahead of the next fed meeting. if it is a weather story, the fed ignores the data. if it's more like this is due to the strong dollar affecting exporters and manufacturing or some sort of loss of confidence among domestic employers, that would be something more troubling to policymakers. i don't think that is the case based on the other leading indicators of labor. >> how does the labor report inform your investing? >> i'm thinking longer-term. the trend has been increasing in terms of job growth.
for us, that is a good sign we are long-term investors. this month, last month, next month, it doesn't really matter that much to us. i have carl to rely on for this information. grexit he will do the work. >> yes and this is important but not really. we are really feeling great about the u.s.. the market reflects that it's great. the s&p is at almost three times book, 17 times earnings. we are finding stocks in the portfolio that do not trade at those levels. there are still value stocks out there, but you have to be little contrarian, and you have to think long term. if i had to play that game, it would be very difficult for us to succeed.
betty: some of the stocks you i was reading through the notes and riding the general trend, general motors, for instance. david: right. better -- betty: is that because people are feeling better about their jobs? david: it is the housing recovery long-term. as people are able to sell their homes, they can use their capital and investment a little bit, let's just say, into a better life. get into one of these better deals at the senior living facilities. it's still a discount in our analysis. they are putting that capital to work to buy themselves a better life. and it's a play on the economy generally. betty: and the demographic, if you can afford it. david: we think it is a value here at this price. betty: carl, when i look at the
jobs growth and what has been created in the last tree months, 380,000 jobs on average -- three months, 386,000 jobs on average which is incredible, that means at the end of the year we will have added 4 million jobs in the u.s.. there was an economist i was talking to yesterday who said, look, i feel good about the economy. i don't know about the 4 million job economy. is it? karl: given the gdp we saw at the end of the year, i think it is consistent with that. there should be gdp growth and employment growth. we saw these very robust nubbers in quarter for but the numbers are -- in q4, but the numbers are down of it. we have used the information we have, which is somewhat flawed. betty: but does 4 million seem doable this year? adding 4 million jobs?
karl: i think we will be close to last year's number. we will see some moderation. those are really astronomical hiring figures. betty: it is. carl riccadonna, thank you for joining us. david is staying with me. wait growth has been coming from the -- wage growth has been coming from the retail sector. walmart joint gap and ikea in raising worker pay. why haven't things retailers -- why haven't these retailers been boosting wages? julie hyman has more. are they feeling the pressure, or is this politics at work? julie: it is probably a little bit of all of the things that might be in play is employee turnover. we know it tends to be relatively high anyway, and it's only been taking higher. we can look at a couple of things. we can look at a thing called quick weight -- quit rate, the
rate at which people quit retail jobs, and you can see that is sticking up pretty dramatically. it is now have a 3% weight -- 3% rate. and if you can find that with -- combine that with hiring -- with firing, it goes up. 5.1%, and if you think about that over the course of a year the amount of churn your getting with employees, that present a real problem for these retailers. as for tightness in the labor market and for where these people are going when they are quitting, that is more difficult to measure. for example, we know that during the recession, the economic muddling along that followed, a lot of people could not get jobs in their industries for which they were skilled. maybe they went into retail. are they going back into those more highly skilled industries? that is still as of yet unclear.
betty: maybe they are quitting and going back to the job they want, or the career they want. julie: or a full-time job. betty: yes. what about retraining workers? is it expensive to do this? julie: it is expensive, sure. the folks at bloomberg business week and bloomberg online, they crunch the numbers and found according to the center for american progress it costs about eckstein percent of an annual rate entering a new -- of an annual wage to train a new person. it becomes expensive. these retail employees are making about $10 to $16 per hour, so around $21,000 per year. so it is an expense -- it does become a significant expense. betty: that does -- that is significant. thank you.
collect here is a look at the top stories we are following. amazon is trying to reach more shoppers in china, with hitching a ride with alibaba. amazon has struggled overseas. international sales made up just over one third of its revenue last year. widespread use of self driving cars could end 90% of all u.s. auto accidents, that is according to a new report from the consulting firm mckinsey. the report says thousands of deaths would be prevented and an annual savings of $190 billion in damages and health care costs. however, the firm predicts it
will be another 15 years before there is mass adoption of the driverless cars. officials in northern illinois are letting a freight train that derailed and exploded just burn itself out. the tanker car went off to join me the mississippi river. people living nearby were evacuated. no injuries were reported. it's the second derailment of a tanker training as many months. in five people recovered in jerusalem after a suspected palace indian motorist rammed his car into a group of people. the attack occurred here a police station. four of those hurt were police officers. the driver was shot and wounded after he exited his car brandishing a knife. they are calling it a terror attack. and a cardinal has died. the former archbishop of new york oversaw up -- broad and sometimes i unpopular financial issues for the archdiocese.
cardinal edward egan was 82 years old. and that to our big story of the day, jobs. we are roughly about 50 minutes away from the february report. let's talk about the jobs lost. month. into a new report -- according to a new report, u.s. employers announcement 50,000 job cuts in february, the energy sector responsible for about one third of that. more than 16,000 jobs were lost in energy. david baarse is with me still. energy, no doubt, a stress right now. do you see opportunity here? david: absolutely. i look at energy like we have in the past looked at opportunistic traits, if you will. in the 1990's, you have the real estate market. in the early 2000, you have a telecom bubble. now you have energy.
this is one of those opportunities where in three years we will look back on it and they, why weren't we investing? betty: you want to make sure you don't have that regret. how are you investing in energy? david: equities for well-capitalized companies that we think the whether through this time and possibly even thrive through an opportunity to make strategic investments, devon, a dodgy and to tell -- and total are the three we have. it represents about 17% of the market and there are numerous credit situations that are more than just stressed. they are distressed. you have to be careful about your research. do fundamental research on these companies. betty: right, because at a time at this, aaa it all gets taken down. it's up to someone like you to say, i know where the cinderella ones are. david: we collect the fulcrum security. and if we are wrong, and we
always want to look at what will go wrong to see what will go right. maybe that is where we will buy security. maybe if we are right, and we are right in a different way and better than we thought, we will have a very nice return for our investors. betty: the last time you were on, you are not looking at regional things. you are now looking at some of the regionals. why? david: you announce earlier about the stress test the past. it appears things are calming down a bit, if you will. we've always looked at the regionals as better capitalized. those things will take advantage of growth in housing growth in the consumer wage. and we think there are better ways to play that sector. the balance sheet of the larger money center banks are just too complicated for us. we are really simpleminded people. betty: even now? david: it is tough to get in
there and figure out exactly what is in those balance sheet. you can rely in part on what is the financial disclosures, but it is almost impossible for a typical investor to go in there and understand everything. betty: not to get too simplified . if they pass their stress test wouldn't that make you feel better to say, maybe? david: you cannot rely that -- if we were going to rely on that as an exquisite way to make an investment decision, people should not be paying us. -- as an exclusive way to make an investment decision, people should not be paying us. there is a better way. betty: the fed is going to raise interest rates. does that affect the regional banks? david: for sure. we are looking at the net interest margin for key criteria as to what will create value for us. as those rise, the margin should increase and benefit the banks. betty: david, stay with me.
much more ahead. the february jobs report is moments away. we will break those numbers as soon as they come out. remember, they may be slightly delayed, given the weather. plus republican reaction from congressman mike turner. as the fight against isis ramps up, we will be asking him if america should be doing a whole lot more. he says yes. we will be back. ♪
betty: you are watching "in the loop" live on television and on mobile at bloomberg.com. market makers has a great lineup for international women's day. in the highlights, gwyneth paltrow joining us. as well as the ceo of neiman marcus. and right here on bloomberg tv less than five minutes away from the jobs numbers. we are going to see whether wages grew last month. it has long been the missing piece in ever positive
employment numbers. there are wage pressures beginning to build. listen to this from roger altman earlier this week. roger altman: the labor markets are not tight enough, but finally they are tight enough to start moving up. not a lot, but some. to me, the most important thing we want to see and i do think we will be seeing is continuation of wage gains. betty: i want to bring in alan krueger, the professor of economics at princeton and chief economist at the department of labor. till -- still with me is david barse. formerly of the council of economic advisers. allen, do you think we will see the tick up in wages that we been waiting for? allen: i do agree with roger and i think he's right, the job market is getting there. if the market follows walmart then it's a sign of what's to come.
betty: it seems that way, but with that statement it is walmart, tjx, and that is it. why aren't we seeing more? alan: wage growth in january was quite strong. we've seen a drop this year in the share going to workers. that is in the backdrop so that means wage growth might be slower than you would expect given tightness in the labor market. but i do think we will see the phillips curve hold. i do think we will start to see wages grow. betty: david, are you glad to see this in companies you observe? they have a little more pricing power? david: as investors, we like a little bit of distress, but generally we want to be optimistic about the economy. we think the economy is sending all kinds of signals that it any better, especially here in the u.s. line i use that -- in the u.s. i use that focused view
because there are a lot of things going on outside the united states that cause concern. betty: it gives company more pricing power. but it is a next her cost and i wonder if it can become a headwind when you are looking at a stronger dollar, for instance. david: we think i'm a generally, you have to apply weight to these factors, and job growth and wage inflation is a good thing for our economy. betty: how about on your end? how will it hit corporate profit? alan: i think what david said is correct. it will be good for business. if workers are taking home or pay then a drop in gasoline prices should help. i think the next leg to help
recovery will be the consumer, especially in discretionary spending. as wages grow and incomes grow we will see more discretionary spending. betty: something else roger mentioned this week was the underemployment rate. it's a lot higher than the unemployment rate. it's around 11 point percent. we have a chart -- 11.6%. we have a chart here going into the recession. that's underemployment rate was around 8.8%. while i totally hear both of you that the economy is doing better and we feel better when you look at the underemployment rate we are still very far from before the recession. alan: what is driving the u six is drivers who are not attached. it is driven completely by workers who say they are working part-time hours and would prefer to work full-time.
that is a source of slack in the economy. on the other hand, average work hours are back above trend. i think that is not implying that much slack over out. -- overall. i think ours are more back to normal. we may see some workers go from part-time to full-time, but we may see it in the other direction with some workers working more hours than they want. betty: that is true. alan krueger, thank you. david barse is staying with me. scarlet fu is monitoring any reaction in the market. this is an unusual market report . chief correspondent peter cook is in washington watching out for these numbers. as i mentioned, they will trickle out a little bit late. and i know alan is watching. if you want to see yourself when these numbers are instantly going to come out, you go ahead and put into bls.gov.
i'm reading a headline now that says those numbers are temporarily unavailable. this is really unusual, guys, on this friday for the labor report. scarlet, i'm curious what you are seeing in the market. scarlet: very little reaction. futures are basically unchanged. if you look at the screen behind me, it looks like there are big movement, a big leg up and a big move lower, but these are incremental moves. there you go. it's probably more like this. this is a half percent moved to the upside. 3/10 percent moved to the downside. these are minute moves as we await the jobs report. the 10 year yield is holding pretty steady. david: i got it. 295,000 jobs added in february. the unemployment rate edging down to 5.5%. job gains occurring in
transportation, food service, and warehousing. let me go into participation rates and other factors. the participation rate at the 2.8%. it was at 62.9% a month prior. nonfarm payrolls rising 295,000, which was higher than our estimate compared to an average monthly gain of 266,000 over the prior 12 months. let's look at the possibility of broke -- of revisions over the prior month. moving down the page, after revisions, the total change in nonfarm employment remained at 295,000. it dropped in january. with these revisions in employment gains in december and january, we are 18,000 lower than previously reported. over the past three months, job
gained been 200 89,000 -- 289,000. average earnings, three cents. the year-over-year change, 2%. not hitting our estimate of 2.2%. betty, that is the number. unemployment dropping to 5.5% better than expected as well. and getting awfully close to the picture of full employment at the fed has been looking at. some improvement on wages. you will have to crunch the numbers did of the month over month number, but the year-over-year number, again not what the forecast survey had suggested. there is still some question about wages and whether the wage pressure will really take off. for 12 straight month above 200,000. we all looked at the 300,000 level.
a lot for the fed to consider. in terms of wage gains, that is still a question. that he: scarlet, back to you on the market. do you see a little pick up in future? scarlet: not that much. i'm seeing more of a movement in treasuries and the dollar. treasuries first, you have the yields moving higher and are now at 2.1588%. they got to as low as 2.09% just before the release of the numbers. now the yields are moving higher, which looks like selling of the actual security. the prices are going down and the yield is moving higher. the dollar is also strengthening against the yen. it moved from about 1.19 to 120.7. -- from 119 to 120.7. the broadest measure of european stocks already trading at a seven-year high. you see that leg higher, right
at the end is where the jobs report came out. the futures have now moved in a more positive direction, but these are not big moves i any stretch of the imagination. still only up by 1/10 of 1% if you were to rounded up. betty: i agree. alan, what does this make the fed do? allen: -- alan: i think the fed will see different things into it. jobs are outstanding. that is fantastic. unemployment rate coming down to 5.5%, that is a sign of the job market is getting closer to full employment. it is not there yet. on the other hand, labor participation fell. i've been expecting to see the long-term unemployed leave the labor force. i don't think even if we get a very strong recovery traditionally you do not see very many people rejoining the labor force. betty: why not? alan: when people leave the
labor force, they go on to other things. they take care of the house, retire early. and we don't see too many added workers coming back when the labor economy starts to grow. people misinterpreted what happened in the 1980's. a lot of that was driven by demographics. today, the demographics are going in the opposite direction. on the internet, the wage growth was weaker than i would have acted. that will give us pause -- then i would have expected. that will give us some pause. but this is just one indicator of wages and it's not necessarily the best one. the cost index is probably even more important. medical and david, i know you are a bottoms up investor. -- betty: david, i know you are a bottoms up investor. in many ways this is theater. david: this is theater. the delay in the numbers was super dramatic. i don't even know what i was going to do. what would we talk about? betty: i know. [laughter]
but you must have questions about the economy. for someone like alan here, you must have a question that will inform your own moves. david: again, we are taking a three to five-year horizon view. we look at general motors brookdale, weyerhaeuser, target we look at the companies in our portfolio even those that are going through a blip right now and we are thinking three to five years out and we are very confident about those securities. we love our portfolio right now will stop and all that is theater does for me is give me more confidence about the selections that was made. betty: why, because the numbers themselves are positive? david: i don't have to worry about some impending doom that is going to end up impairing their ability to grow their balance sheets to improve their financial performance, for management teams to do what they need to do, which is focus on their own enterprises and not worry about economic data that ultimately will not have an impact on their day-to-day life.
betty: one question that keeps coming up alan maybe you can answer this. why are we seeing such great jobs growth yet how we could be on average over 300,000 -- such great jobs growth? we could be on average over 300,000 in the coming months. why is in our gdp stronger? why we still stuck at 2.5% to 3%? allen: that is a great question and why has activity growth been some negative? i don't think there is a full answer to that question. eddie: shouldn't somebody be put on this question? alan: a lot of people are looking into that question, no doubt. gdp is very noisy. it is the one of all the indicators that gets the revised -- it's revised the most longest. i would not surprised to see revisions and gdp. also, it's hard to measure the quality of services, the output. i'm not that worried about that.
i think it's more important that we get the labor market back to full health, that we start to see incomes and wages growing more. and i think david said is exactly right and it's important for your viewers to understand. take a long-term perspective. these numbers are not theater, but they get way more attention than they deserve. betty: i'm sorry, but the fed is also watching these numbers. alan: but the fed has a filter. it is also taking a longer perspective and taking into account other numbers that are coming in. i have to say because one of my jobs was to talk about these numbers in front of the white house, and i thought there was far too much attention paid to the jobs report. betty: you were there every month, in front of the camera. alan: and i was at the same thing. i would say, the economy was continuing to heal, whether the strong -- the numbers were really strong or really low. betty: i remember those days.
solid, what is going on in the market? scarlet: you're seeing movement in some segments of the market. financials, for example. xl is moving higher because it benefits. utilities is down now because dividend payers and other defensive payers would be less attractive in a rising rate environment. i was just looking at one security and he says this is a bad report. for the fed to delay, this is not such great news. betty: peter, what do you have for me? peter: just couple of sectors. food and beverage service the biggest by far. we saw construction of 29000. retail, 32,000. we shed temporary jobs. a lot of people in that cold weather apparently are going in a getting a job at a bar.
betty: that is where i would end up. [laughter] peter, thank you so much. also, scarlet fu has been watching the markets. alan krueger of princeton university, great to see you. and david barse, thanks so much for joining us. we are going to stay on the reactions of the jobs report. coming up, speaking with congressman mike turner right here in our studio. ♪
meanwhile, harrison ford is recovering after crash landing his playing on a golf course in santa monica, california. he said to the engine on his world war ii plane failed. his injuries are not life-threatening. sunday will mark when years and the malaysian airline jet vanished over the indian ocean. no trace of the plane has been found nor of the 249 people on board. animal-rights activists are pleasantly stunned this morning, cheering the news that the ringling brothers and parliament bailey -- barnum and bailey circus will phase out elephants from their circus by 2018. one activist calls it a moving it -- a giant move in the right direction. but they also want to know i will take three years. ringling says it will take time to prepare the proper facilities. a woman as husband died in the marathon bombing addressed the
accused man directly calling him a coward and saying "you can't handle the fact that what you try to just write you only made stronger." her post, as you can imagine, when viral. she lost her leg in the version of the finish line of the race. there is a different problem in alaska. the famed iditarod is running on a new course because there isn't enough snow. the weather patterns that have pounded the eastern u.s. left alaska fairly warm this winter. i will gladly give them some of this snow. and the jobs report is just a few minutes old. beating expectations by adding 295,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate held to 5.5%. it looks like we are headed solidly in the right direction. i want to bring in reaction to these numbers. joining me now is congressman mike turner, the ohio fifth district and on the ohio
services committee. a lot of talk about russia and isis and what is going on. but before we head overseas, congressman, this is a good jobs report. the white house says we done enough for the economy and republicans should stop criticizing. congressman: i think what we see as a stabilizing economy, but we have not seen enough growth to recover from the recession. we are not seeing rate -- weight growth and the other types of jobs increases that provide the class with the disability may need for economic mobility. overall, it is a stable economy. people feel that. it doesn't show the types of growth that people expect to participate in a growing economy. betty: i would agree to the extent that we do not really have our house in order here in the u.s. quite yet. we are still fighting over immigration. we just pass this bill, the
department of homeland security, i know you voted for the thing though. are you worried that is detracting from the larger issues are brought, which i -- a broad, which i know you are focused on, which is fighting isis, and in your view, arming ukraine? congressman: exactly, i think it is a distraction from the real threat. russia won't even call it an invasion. this represents a threat to our european allies, and ultimately the u.s. isis is a growing threat and not only is it destabilizing a great worship of the middle east, but it certainly is a threat that we have seen in instances in paris the model america threat. -- and the threat to the mall america. betty: and we've had something like 180 americans go and join isis. congressman: you see the horrors, but also recruitment at the technological level.
betty: what do you make of iran trying to take back to quit --tikrit? what do you make of that? congressman: iran has always been always -- always been funding the kind of action. they are a destabilizing force. any action they take will be tore their own interests. isis is a destabilizing force but one that iran sees as a threat also. betty: they do. russia, you don't think the cease-fire will hold? wishes still arm ukraine? congressman: it is not holding. russia undertook a great push for landgrab and then has continued to destabilize the area. russia has long-term plans for taking ukraine and the united they need to respond by arming ukraine. -- the united states needs to respond by arming ukraine. betty: much more ahead on the
betty: we just had to bring in these images. it is bureau -- brutally cold in the northeast, but it is bald eagle season. in hanover, pennsylvania, using a father sheltering his eaglets in the nest. you cannot see it, but there are newborn eagles under there. that is a live cam. that is them right there. you thought your job was tough taking care of the two young ends. -- younguns. coming up, apple day. a scary story coming up. ♪
betty: welcome back. we are 30 minutes away from the opening bell. futures are little changed at the open, slightly lower. wall street making down the job numbers. the payroll grew more than expected, almost 300,000 jobs created in february. hillary clinton's e-mails from her days as secretary of state are being checked to see if she broke security rules. mrs. clinton used a private security account to send messages. the washington post says the state department is trying to determine if those e-mails included sensitive information. secretary of a john kerry says mrs. clinton is being cooperative.
secretary kerry: last year, the state department sent a letter to former representatives of state requesting they submit records in their possession for proper preservation. in response, secretary clinton provided e-mails that spanned her time at the state department. betty: mrs. clinton gave the state department 55,000 pages of e-mails. and overseas, a palestinian man rammed his car into a crowd today near a police station. the suspect then try to staff a guard before he was shot and arrested. five people were hurt, four of them officers. the fed says the nation's biggest banks could survive a financial crisis. the federal reserve giving them passing grades after its first stress test. the 31 banks have more than $50 billion in assets, but one had barely enough capital, goldman
sachs. that means goldman will not be able to match last year's dividends and share buybacks. after that rough landing at laguardia in new york both landing strips are close. six people were hurt. meanwhile in california harrison ford is recovering from injuries after crash landing his vintage plane. the actor said his engine failed. he brought the plane down on a golf course and those are your top headlines. i want to get to the breaking news desk for more on apple. scarlet? ok, ok, i don't we have your microphone. i will bring you the news. apple is going to join the dow jones industrial average, this according to the "wall street journal." what i'm reading right now is that apple is set to join the dow jones. this is all the details we have
so far. we have scarlet. scarlet: it is official now that apple is joining the dow jones industrial average. this they price weighted index. it will be interesting to see how this plays out. it will replace at&t. at&t is out while apple is in. if you look at the dow jones industrial average, these is the highest weighted number right now at a price of $274. now that apple is joining with a price tag of $126, it would be let me see, the fifth heavily is -- heaviest weighted stock in the dow. at&t is fairly low on the bottom of the list here. it is number, let's see, 27 out of 30 within the dow jones industrial average. it gains apple and we see at&t leaving the dow jones industrial average. betty: number one in the nasdaq
now number 17 in the dow. scarlet: number five or number six. betty: oh, got it. thank you for that breaking news. another big story we're following today, jobs day in america. the labor department showed employers added 295,000 jobs in february. economists projected a gain of 235,000 jobs. the unemployment rate now dropping 5.5%. -- dropping to 5.5%. i want to go to peter cook. wages are still key problem here. peter: still a key problem and we are not seeing the kind of growth in wages that the fed has been hoping for and a lot of americans have been hoping her as well. the headline number better than our survey of bloomberg. and it is the 12th straight month above 200,000. we have not seen a street like that is 19 and he five, and the
unemployment rate dropping to five 5%. why did it drop? because they were fewer folks -- more folks going back and getting jobs and the number of unemployed fell at the same time. the participation rate also falling down to 62.8. that is also somewhat of a cause for concern. let's talk about the wage numbers, though, because that is such a big focus right now. wages are up 0.1% our -- average hourly earnings. betty: peter, thank you for those highlights. we will talk about that more through the opening bell. and we are under 30 minutes to the start of trait. joining me today is bob henry
and also olivia sterns. let's start with apple, which we just heard is going to be joining the doubt. the stakes are high for the new apple watch, which debuts on monday. developers from companies like facebook and others are watching it. olivia: the lab is located at the apple headquarters in cupertino, california. tightly controlled, as you can imagine. bob: is an apple the best in marketing, creating the drama? the secret lab, how did we find out about the secret lab? c see, apple probably told us about it. 30 million of these watches are probably supposed to be sold during the first year. take a lesson from this terrific marketing campaign. betty: are you with bob? olivia: i am with bob. betty: you say they are going to sell 30 million in the first year.
will they get close to bob: -- will they get close? bob: they don't have to. olivia: they have turned product launches into concert events. betty: a new report this morning involving fraud from apple pay. typing stolen credit card numbers into the pavement system and is now requiring banks to call users before they are allowed to use apple pay. olivia: i have to admit i'm a big fan of apple pay and i use in almost every day in the yellow cap. 80% of the unauthorized purchase have been with big-ticket items bought with smartphones that apple owned stores. is not the stuff they are buying from whole foods or walgreens. the other very important point
is that the technology is not the problem. the problem is with the authorization process with the reddit card companies. the way -- with the credit card companies. the way a lot of people are getting around it is to call your bank, which i had to do with my apple pay. bob: the advances have not really caught up to apple pay. olivia: the problem is that they are entrenching these and all of the credit card companies are still going to them. if not the actual bluetooth technology. that is still secure. bob: apple has been famous for new viruses on their system. here is a change in the armor. betty: number six, could self driving cars save lives? according to a mckinsey report widespread use of self driving cars could reduce accidents by 90%. can you believe this? and this could be wonderful prevent thousands of deaths. plus, millions of dollars in savings in damages and health care costs. olivia: i don't know.
and maybe the technology will be there, but at the pace at which regulators currently move and congress, do you think this will actually be legal? i think the driverless car ecosystem that we are getting way too fair carried away with this -- way too far carried away with the story. there was an article saying that we are going to have hydrogen fuel cell -- fuel powered vehicles by 2020. betty: we may still have those cars, but just not so quick. bob: i'm the only one who remembers the world's fair of the 1930's. betty: [laughter] you look so good. bob: by 1965, traveling around in jet packs and monorails and go from city to city. i love the idea. you said you use yellow cabs but not jet packs. olivia, i used to watch "back to the future" and asked my dad when we would have flying cars. bob: right, so maybe driverless cars.
betty: we continue to count down the opening bell. number five, the american labor market. employers added a healthy 295,000 jobs in february but not enough to boost wages. the average hourly wage rose just three cents. we are joined by former pimco ceo mohamed el-erian. great to see you so bright and early this morning. it seems like every thing was great, and then you look at wage growth and wonder what is going on. mohammed: there are two
blemishes. the rate and they decline. it occurred in the context of a relentless strong dollar and bad weather. that is why we outperform the expectations of 235,000 by a lot. second, the longer term trend is very encouraging. the 12 straight months of 200,000 or more job creation and a moving average of almost 295,000. a blemish yes, but overall, a very strong report that will have policy and market implications. betty: let's talk about policy. does it give the set and janet yellen room to drop the word "patience" in march? mohammed: march or thereafter and a rate hike after the september meeting.
it encourages the said to feel more comfortable about starting a very gradual hiking cycle by or at the september meeting. betty: with no substantial weight gain, you don't see the drop in oil -- wage gains, you don't to the drop in oil. you don't see any deterrence to the fed raising rates this year? mohammed: i think it will make them careful. it will be a very gradual and measured path and they will struggle of the historical average. but i think they want to get off .08%. to quote vice chair fisher, they are worried that the market will increasingly believe that zero is normal. zero is not normal. they see a reason to start moving. on the issue of wage growth, it will come with time. it will come with these strong numbers. it's just a matter of time. betty: let's go overseas
though. i know you've been commenting on what is going on in europe. speaking about china stokes some inflation in europe. you just heard the other day the ecb saying they will start quantitative easing on monday. i want you to listen to what mario draghi said about inflation. mario draghi: inflation rates are expected to start increasing gradually later in 2015. this assessment is also broadly reflected in the march, 2015 ecb projections for the euro area which forced the annual inflation -- which foresees annual inflation at 0% in 2015 1.5% in 2016, and 1.8% in 2017. betty: i don't know about you, but to grow from zero to 1.5 and a years time, that's a pretty big job will stop -- a big jump.
will it be enough, this program is putting in place? mohammed: i tweeted out today the ecb staff notes. my reaction is that they are overoptimistic. they are factoring in the most expensive effects of a number of things that are only partially tested. if you look at what they've done to the nominal gdp estimates, they hike them up both from the growth side and the inflation site. i hope they are right, but i don't he will be. betty: what will happen then? will we see some kind of shocked? that -- mohammed: verse and foremost, it's because to the diversity of the market. they have consequences for the markets. i spoke to a teacher and said the good news is that the average quality of your class is better. the bad news is that the dispersion is getting higher. the average growth is going up because the good economies are doing better, the u.s., the u.k., and india.
but on the other end, not only do you have the sluggish economies like the euro zone japan, but the wildcards like russia, greece, venezuela, nigeria, so overall this is a divergent economy and the ecb will have to be very proactive. what is really striking also is if you look at yesterday's statement, you get the impression that this is a statement by committee. there is something for everyone in there, but overall it actually left quite a few people a little bit confused. betty: on that note, stay with me. we will get more clarity from mohammed on the market. mohamed el-erian staying with me through the opening bell. before we had to break, an update on the news we broke earlier, apple being added to the dow jones, replacing at&t. apple shares are now up 1.4% and at&t down over 1%. we will be back. ♪
betty: let's get back to bring you the most important stories before the bell. joining me are bob and olivia. head over to number four, this is interesting. amazon is trying to reach more shoppers in china. now they are hitching a ride on what we potentially with is a rival, alibaba, and opening a store in the mall owned by the chinese giant. olivia: if you cannot beat them join them. go fish where the fish are. i'm quoting somebody at forrester research. amazon has had a lot of problems in china will stop they are doing well in japan and germany, but international revenue has actually fallen from 2009 through 2014 as a total of revenue from 40% to 40%. bob: i would like to know if
there are things they cannot sell in china because it's so much more restrictive there. but 1.5 billion people, i mean jeff bezos is salivating over this. betty: oh, yeah. and the numbers in the middle class in the millions. i wonder if you could just superimpose, if you could just cut jeff bezos in half along with jack ma and put them together and it would be an alibaba amazon giant. bob: a1 world company. betty: a monster ceo. the fed results are in from the stress tests and for the first time, already when things got a passing grade. at the trial is not over. round to his next week. kind of a surprise that goldman sachs scraped by. olivia: everyone was worried about citibank, and even michael corbat that his job was on the line. goldman sachs clearly the one that scraped by. and that means they will not be able to pay out the same kind of dividend and give the same kind
of share buybacks. bob: are we worried about citigroup because they passed the stress test? i been worried about citigroup for years. betty: why? : because a notch or citigroup will survive another downturn. and the stress tests for some -- bob: because i'm not sure citigroup will survive another downturn. olivia: is it the size, the leverage ratios? bob: the size of it, the mismanagement that goes on, and the quasilegal going into the legal aspects of what they've been doing, and what they've kept doing since the crisis. they haven't stopped. betty: mohamed el-erian just talked about how he is skeptical somewhat of mario draghi's plan. that is number two. the ecb bank president mario draghi and his qe program beginning on monday. he's very optimistic that this is going to work. more so than anybody else. olivia: good for him.
does this fix any of the core structural problems in europe? no, but it buys him sometime and maybe a little bit of early inflation. bob: they are not telegraphing what they are buying and selling him and i think that might be good because no one can front run then. betty: we will be back in two minutes with the opening bell. ♪
betty: welcome back. let's get back to getting you the most important stories before the bell. joining me today, bob henry and olivia sterns. the number one story this morning the labor department. wages. employers added almost 300,000 jobs, 295,000 to be act. the and affluent the rate is down to 5.5%. who is feeling good? i feel good. who is feeling good? olivia: that nobody's getting a raise yet. bob: that is just it. i've got a beef. let me get something off my chest.
the fed calls it full employment. let's not collect full employment anymore. because anybody west of here and east of the west coast doesn't feel like it is full employment. it shows just how out of touch the fed is. betty: you -- olivia: it used to be the threshold was 6%. now we are at 5.5%. that is not full employment. : and today's stories that we might go down to 5%. it is a race to the bottom. betty: we will be around 3% though. bob: we will be at full employment when people feel like the rent is too dam high and when people can pay the rent that islamic will have full employment. -- that is when we will have full employment. betty: in the meantime, you are depressed. [laughter] bob: right. betty: i want to bring back mohamed el-erian.
he is an optimist and said in his latest column you said, as far as oil prices they are likely to rebound to $100 per barrel soon and the consequences have yet to play out fully. [opening bell] you have some doubts this will be a win-win for the economy? >> i am saying there are two trends, one that is playing out quickly. we are seeing enormous reduction in both actual and future capacity in the energy sector traditional or nontraditional. what you hasn't -- what hasn't yet played out is job creation. it is not enough to take oil prices back to 100. it is enough to have a gradual recovery in oil prices. they are not going back to 100 because it is a supply paradigm exchange. >> what about the net effect on
the economy? >> i think that net is positive but a competence are really important. lots of gainers and few big losers. put all that together, it is a net positive. >> what is cheap oil on the jobs market? we are seeing layoffs across the industry, a reduction in cap what is that going to do? >> energy jobs, that is where we have seen a lot of inflation. >> what we are seeing first is the effect of the supply destruction. that is what he spoke to. lots of job losses. what you are going to see next is the effect of demonic creation -- of the mont -- it is amazing to hundred 95,000 jobs are created in the context of weather disruptions and a
stronger dollar. that is why overall this is an encouraging report. wage growth will occur. >> without the stronger dollar and even the winter of fact, where do you think we could have been? them based on today we could have been at 300,000. that is how meaningful this momentum is in terms of job creation. and it makes a standout globally, compared to the eurozone. it speaks to this divergent and economic performance. it speaks to yet a stronger dollar, a weaker euro. and it speaks to the queue each trade accelerated in europe. >> we had professor alan krueger from princeton university. he said for employment is six months away.
he says it was at 6%. where do you think full employment is? >> i think it is somewhere between what alan said and -- i don't know. i don't know because the participation rate is doing really funny things. i find this a particularly puzzling time when it comes to estimating neutral values in the economy. the fact we haven't had wage growth yet suggests we may not the at that point. >> there is still the percents -- still the persistent problem of wages. how do we get wages to the point that we are growing budget what we could be happy with. >> we are not wet -- not yet where we want to be in terms of wage growth. i think there is a combination
of structural and secular issues playing out. there is a lot of discussion about this. a great decoupling has occurred between gdp growth and unemployment growth on one hand and wage growth, income growth, inequality him of there has been a great decoupling that has occurred in the economy. from a cyclical perspective, it is just a matter of time before we get the wage growth. the job creation is so robust that it will translate into higher price for labor. >> doesn't seem right that we are here at record highs. the nasdaq almost hitting 5000. does this seem right to you? >> what seems right to me is the marketplace has learned in condition to respect central-bank spit as long as
central tanks are in the business of creating liquidity through qe, markets will continue going up. there are longer-term issues with prices up here. how did that converge over time? will fundamentals validate the higher prices? that question is going to be answered not in the next few weeks or months when the qe trade is going on, but it is going to be answered over the next two to three years. it is a really controversial question. >> i heard you speaking to our buddy earlier this week talking about one of the most significant decoupling speed this enormous spread aware treasuries are trading, the difference on the 10 year now at a 25 year high. what are the consequences for the market? >> it places enormous stress on
interest rate differential. this was a healthy relationship where it was capped at 150 basis points. the divergence has become so strong that we have both. we have reached that ceiling and we have had a stronger dollar at the same time. it speaks to health fundamental this team i've divergence is. we are going to see european equities. that is the other side of that relationship. we must forget this. it is driven by experimental central-bank policy. >> great to see you this morning. great to see you on job state. the bloomberg view columnist and former pimco ceo. thanks to olivia sterns and bob evers for joining me. we are going to get reaction to the numbers.
, i want to dig deeper into the surprising jobs report. 200 95,000 jobs created last month. i want to bring in the chairman of the white house council of economic advisers for the white house take on the jobs. as mohamed el-erian was saying earlier, this is a loud report. it is a feel-good report for the public. if in that wages are still pretty stagnant they are not growing as robustly as the jobs growth would suggest, are you worried that despite this good number americans aren't really going to feel it? ; you will's desk you will let
me stay on one second on the lower before the wages. -- >> i hope you will's -- you will at least a for one second on the wow. we are going through what is really an extraordinary streak. job growth average is 260,000 per month. it is something most people didn't expect. we should be happy about it. to get to wages in particular january we saw pretty large rise in wages. we continued to rise in february. i think a strengthening economy will help it. they did growing 2014. they are growing in 2015.
we can do better. >> america can do better on wages. on judge -- on the job's growth what are we on track here for the u.s.? how many jobs do you believe we are going to add by this year? >> i do not have a prediction by the end of this year. we should continue to see strong job growth. as long as we do what we need to hear in washington. those are the reasons why we are able to have this economic performance. we should be taking other steps, like investing in infrastructure that would help make sure they would -- make sure that all of this would continue. >> that's having a big impact. at least publicly for people
with wage growth. what about an washington? how is that being perceived? >> that is a real indication of the president yield that higher wages, higher productivity good for businesses, good for workers, all that is compatible. you are seeing states around the country say it. as the federal government we are doing the same thing. >> speaking about congress, house speaker john boehner spoke about the report. they say it shows we are creating jobs and middle-class families do not feel enough. he should not be levying a new or higher tax. those are negative effects for middle-class families.
>> you look at the last year and see a real vindication. the 529 plan, we would love to focus on plans we would agree on. reforming the business tax code to make us more competitive and investing in community college. >> is any of that going to get any traction in washington? is any of that going to get any traction in congress? >> we are making progress and discussions in it number of those areas. i would have loved to seen some of those things done a year or two ago. i really hope we can do it. there is no reason not to come together to strengthen our economy.
>> thank you so much for joining us. a cold day in the sea. trading getting underway. early action on some of the movers. >> we will get to the interest rate sectors in a moment. i want to the start with apple. at&t is on a one-month low on a change in the industry of his first month reshuffling since 2013. changes take effect at the start of trading. what can't did this move his thesis for-one stock flip. it would reduce the influence of tech names. he keeps his price in line with the average price of the dow number. asian interest rate sector moving on the job state. the financial benefit from
more. we have a jampacked two hours. >> we have three hours today. we were speaking to women. we thought of gwyneth paltrow has just an actress six years ago. it has turned into so much more. i sat down and said do you want to become a ceo? there's a difference from people wanted to like you to meeting to buy your product. we're going to talk to the ceo of nieman markets. she is in a women's business. not so much. across industries they are still dominated by men. the numbers are abysmal. there are more ceos in the fortune 500 mean to john then there are women. the numbers are so terrible.
>> it does feel like it is gaining traction. this whole gender gate that whole gender gap. >> cheryl has done a lot but we still do not have great paid care leave. more than 50% of people graduating comment -- graduating college are women yet they are not leading industry. trying to get more girls and education, pushing women, young girls into science, technology engineering. the numbers are just not enough yet. >> dedicate our data the best ones. be sure to catch all of stephanie and eric's interviews. female business leaders coming up in the next few moments in market makers. nasa's space craft is getting its first ever good look at it
dwarf planet. it is thought to have an icy surface, also salt and thence that release plumes of vapor. some are hoping we might find signs of life. tying this into job stay do you know how many people work at nasa? 18000 people. that does it for today. on monday, the apple watch finally arrives. can you get excited about this? joining us is area ceo chet kenosha. that is all starting monday at 8 a.m. right here on bloomberg television. ♪
the data will keep pressure on the fed to stick to admit 2015 timeline for an increase. the dow lowered for third time this week. now the highest in 2015. it dollar getting a boost. we want to take a look at india. it has been one year since he took over as prime minister of india. joining me now from chicago with a look at which etf's are seeing the most action is bloomberg's etf analyst. when you look at some of these names, is it just a matter of tracking the sector with any other indian benchmark? >> it is astonishing. india has led the way in both performance and lows.
small caps have done a little bit better. they have taken in $4 billion which is the most of any past year. india took over where japan left off when it comes to single country investing. back in 2012 they had this huge year afterward. india took over and there are some tailwinds. you have a rate cut. you have a gdp growth that is supposed to be at 8%. the ind a as the ticker. it is a classic market cap weighted index. institutions like this one the new jersey pension plan, a lot
of institutions bought into this. that has helped this one be the largest play. >> what about currency risk? i know we talked about the strong dollar. that is constantly eight team here. >> one of the nice things about investing in a country like india is you do not have to worry about that. the currency is such a big deal. the other part of it is because interest rates are 7% in india. you how that headwind when -- you do not need to worry about it right now. >> what is the biggest risk when it comes to investing in these etf's on india?
is it similar to japan and europe where you have political risk? >> really if you look at the ratio, they have gone from 16 to about 20. they are looking a little rich. how much more return could be had from india? you look at the volatility increasing. could be a maturing play. >> get home safely, eric. market makers is up next.
>> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is "market makers" with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle. >> we are celebrating international women's day here on market makers. a three-hour special. you will be meeting some of the most powerful women in his miss government, and entertainment. from valerie jarrett to karen katz, two academy award winner and lifestyle guru, the one and only when it out tro.