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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  March 11, 2015 2:00am-4:01am EDT

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>> global stock sound off. sell off. sending a shock wave through the market. the credit suisse chief executive tells bloomberg his replacement is the right man for the job. >> i think it is a good fit. he has a strong track record of growing in the emerging markets. >> european finance toxic year up -- talks gear up for talks.
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and two german giants report earnings. we will report the numbers as they come. welcome to countdown, i am mark barton. also coming up, almost a million dollar tribute to the late marvin gaye. and the late lawsuit. net income falling 17%. seems to be below estimates.
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analysts expecting a drop. earnings before taxes, down 1.9%. 905 million dollars. analysts were estimating 94 mine dollars. what is important is the projections for 2015. the company has confirmed the forecast for 2016. they will pay a final dividend of 85 euros. those are the headlines. stay with us. later this hour, i will check with the chief executive. the strongest euro in a dozen years. concerns about corporate
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earnings. ftse 100 fell 2.5%, pulled it down by commodities stocks. the swiss market was not hit as hard. it was buoyed by the news at credit suisse. let's focus on credit suisse? a bank in transition. the new man at the top will be -- the announcement of his replacement had an immediate and positive effect on the stock. what about the man he is replacing? he sat down with bloomberg's manus cranny to talk about his time. he began by knowledge in the challenges -- fighting knowledge in the challenges he is facing. >> the last eight years have
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been one of the most challenging for a global bank. i have been there 25 years total. i'm close to the people and businesses. spent the bulk of my life with this company. mixed feelings. i wanted to make sure the transition was done in the right way. which i think we have accomplished. i think that is good. a clean, nice transition. the market is relatively positive. a lot of history here. close connections with people. i do love the firm and the people here. i think it is a balance. >> we get together every quarter. i say to you, are we going to cut risk-weighted assets? many of the detractors would say, you did the heavy lifting. they revamp in 100 days.
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there is some merit in that? >> it has been a long. of challenges -- a long time of challenges. we have been proactive and aggressive. that has been good. i hope for the sake of the organization there is relatively less to go. it is dynamic. with the targets we sat for the end of the year we think that puts us in a good place. fourth-quarter earnings. we think that puts us in a good place. but obviously --
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the question of the fed, i think it is a good fit. i think he has a strong record of growing in the emerging markets. overall, i think he is a good manager and great guy. i think it is probably a good thing. >> credit suisse added to their market cap. manus cranny was in the front row. good morning. what was your sense of the occasion? his move? >> there was a real sense this was about managing the transition. a message which emanated from the platform. which was, this was my
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instigation. it was dugan who made the approach. it was dugan who raised the issue of succession. many would say what a horrible year. in many ways, he tried clearing out that investigation. set some of those monumental targets. i got the sense, when i wrote to him, he started in german and followed in french. my sense was, here is a ceo playing to the gallery, the gods, and the stalls. in terms of three different languages. also fascinating," which will come to hot him. the absolute fact.
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when asked about his ability to run an investment bank, i have the organized investment banks. studied physics and math, quite complicated. when it comes to derivative math, that is quite primitive. if i am sitting in investment bank, i would say, here's a man that has organized banks and studied physics and math. i thought it was an interesting -- >> tell us about his career. he was at credit suisse since 2007. you look at the total return. i know you expected me to look at the total return yesterday. he has over performed versus his peers in that time. how do we rate his legacy? >> he would take exception at this if he is watching.
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he would argue the metrics we use, the total return without the dividends, he has indeed underperformed his peers. they paid a dividend throughout. you are right, this is a man that began a bankers trust. just around our offices, the epicenter. then he moved on to the credit suisse in 1990. he ran bonds. he was a billion-dollar producer. he should have learned more from john mack. what i found fascinating is this was a man started the same kind of time as me, except he went further. he was interested in building businesses. >>ok we seem to have a problem
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mark with the sound. we will try to bring it later. this was a question when i look back through this, when did you have the most fun? he said the most fantastic times were when we built businesses virtually from cloth. we started businesses. we built them from the ground. if you look through his cv, i will go and tweet it out. the guys in the prints team in zurich wrote a nice piece about his growth through his career. if you go and a look at it is evident this is a man -- the higher up you go, the markup located the business becomes as it grows, the less fun you have when you are growing it. that is true, when you start new derivatives desks and sales
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desks. i know this from a smaller and more personal level. you are still invested in it. you want to be the king pin in terms of delivering revenue. he got the sense he had done the big show and tell piece. there was a sense of relief. he is very focused on executing in these last couple of months this transition. if there was one message to walk out with, this was dugan at his best. controlled execute and a deliverer. he is executing on his own change of direction. that is my sense of the overall news conference. i said, will you leave dear john notes? he said, yes. we are focused on the
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transition. how to deal with the media. i said, i am easy to deal with. >> you certainly delivered, manus. well done with the interview. manus cranny in zurich. a bad day for the euro, falling against the dollar after the second day of qe. this comes as mario draghi prepares to address a conference focused on the effectiveness of the sovereign buying program. it's bring in a global investment strategist at seneca -- let's bring in a global investment strategist at seneca. they will be quietly rubbing their hands together. this makes europe extremely competitive. although it will take a bit of time for that to lead to economic growth, it will be a huge boost which is what we need. >> it comes as qe enters its
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third day. many saying it came at the perfect moment, as the economy turns. you want qe2 work on an economy that is not -- that is ideally turning. >> beer in the camp. europe is behind the u.k. and u.s.,, but the key metric is unemployment. that is the one thing that gives you a good indication of the temperature of an economy. unemployment -- employment started improving in the u.k. and u.s. a long time ago. europe, it has only just started to improve. you have already started to see a noticeable decline in the unemployment rate. it's got a long way to go. hopefully that trend is now in place. what we are seeing, the
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culmination of qe plus a more competitive exchange rate, you should see a good picture of growth. >> does that ensure the flood of money that has moved into european equities in recent months will continue? >> i should think so. we increased what was already a heavy position in european equities. in anticipation of the announcements we had from the ecb. also because we believed things were getting better on the economic front. the big question for an investment strategist has to be one is in a bull market, a bear market4 -- in the case of europe, we think we are in a bull market. monetary policy is very
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supportive and will remain supportive for a long time. the economy is moving in the right direction. friday wishon's -- valuations are not very cheap but they are ok. that means earnings will start to improve, which will help you wishon's. -- evaluations. >> greece. >> it doesn't get any less messy. in a bailout situation coming were looking for the government in question to run a surplus. it involved a big exchange rate depreciation, you would get that quickly. you would get a big boost to the private sector.
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tax revenue increases. a budget surplus. you are not getting that in greece because you do not have any exchange rate depreciation or need -- depreciation. that means it is much harder to run a primary budget surplus. deals will be done. i'm sure that we will muddle through. >> for the opposite of europe read the u.s. negative earnings growth. that has not happened for a number of years. fed rates, when are they going to be raised again? the gains have disappeared. >> you have to have a good run. we have employment numbers, which were extremely strong. that brought back fears of interest rates going up.
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i don't think one should worry about that. the fed is careful of teddy ightening policy. they are a student of the 1930's. they tight eened monetary and fiscal policy and the economy went into a nosedive. they had to stimulate again. they are going to be very aware of not wanting a repeat of that. there are inflationary pressures building. that is what is going to be sacrificed. they are not going to want to disrupt the recovery such as it is. >> thank you for joining us.
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a global investment strategist at seneca. we are gorgeous feet to one man who has an opinion on the state of the eurozone. the former time prime minister. the top stories on bloomberg. china's industrial outpi and retail growtut missed estimates. that means more stimulus may be needed. retail sales advanced 7%. the biggest banks in the u.s. will get their annual report cards from the federal reserve later today when the fed releases results from the second of two faces of stress test. last week, they said all 31 banks have enough capital to absorb losses during a sharp and lasting downturn. officials gearing up for a look at greece -- doubts remains
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whether they will open up books. ministers pressure degrees to follow through with pledges. you can join the conversation. manus, as you saw, is in zurich. anna will be joining me and 31 minutes time. there i am. what of the stories today? credit suisse still in the news. coming up, we are going to discuss the figures with the company's ceo. ♪
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>> europe's biggest postal service reported earnings. thank you for joining us on countdown. >> good morning. >> you have given your guidance for the next year. earnings will be between 3.05 billion euros and 3.2. that is more than last year's figure, but less and the median forecast of analysts. what is holding you back? why can't you a more generous guidance? >> we said during the last year,
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based on a good performance in 2014, we will deliver a significant improvement this year. this shows we want to increase our results significantly. 2015 will be a year of transferred -- preparation. we are investing this year in changes to our organization. we believe this is perfectly in line with our targets for 2016 and 2020. >> part of your investing is upgrading your i.t. infrastructure. you are installing software. when will you be done with this and when will it translate into
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higher profits? >> we are going through a major transformation where we change organizational structures. which is always very demanding for an organization. we do see that there is an impact. we are confident we have found a good approach to do that. it will probably take longer than originally planned. clark's part of your business that many of our viewers will be familiar with is your parcel delivery service. the so-called at last mile delivery to the end consumer that has investors talking. what are the new solutions you are coming up with for the
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so-called last mile delivery to ensure those people ordering goods online get them as soon as or as near to the point that they ordered them? >> your of sloot -- do are absolutely right. we'd have to continue to innovate. we introduced lockers where you can pick up your parcel. we are now introducing a new solution where you could put parcel lockers or blocks in front of your house so you do not have to be home. we looked into a drone flying from germany mainland to an island. we do same day for food. that will be a constant flow of
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new ideas. we are constantly looking into it. we are confident we can upgrade our capabilities more and more. >> on the subject of a drone, how much of the below was it should mark you had a u.s. ruling that the kind of a thomas flight drones envisioned by you and amazon and google, is years away. how much of a blow is that? we do not expect this will be a massive deployment anyway immediately. if you look at the commission where they address that we need a proper regulation, she is excited about the opportunity. we never put anything in our numbers that this will be a major deployment. what you have to do you have to be on the forefront of everything.
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you mentioned realty as another example. you can see the glasses where you get information on the picture. >> thank you for joining us. ♪
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>> time for your foreign exchange check. there is only one currency in town. the euro against the dollar. it is on track for its worst quarterly drop ever. down by 11.6%. that eclipse the drop it experienced against the dollar during the critic crunch. now it is down to 1.069. this is day three of qe by the ecb.
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on behalf of the ecb. talk of a u.s. rate hike lifting the dollar, dragging down the euro. it is worth remembering where the euro started 2015. one dollar 29. look at how much it has lost. $1.20-one dollar$1.06. against 31 major currencies only two writing against the euro. the danish krone and brazilian real. analysts thought the euro would finish the year by $1.18. by february, it was down to $1.10.
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now they are saying it will and $1.07. -- end at $1.07. you since the forecast will continue to be cut, leading to the question, how long before euro-dollar surety? -- parity? we have an underlying profit net income. 1.6 one billion euros. the underlying loss net loss 3.1 6 billion euros. according to bloomberg, a loss of 4.24. we had a net income of 2.09. eon is the entire german energy
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landscape come changing in response to an overhaul of the power industry. the energy shift is forcing it to close reactors. undermining our prices. decimating profitability. it was not even profitable last year on a net income basis. they have a big plan, which essentially means there's putting themselves up. hans nichols, we had a net loss. it is a tough time, isn't it? for energy giants like eo we will hear how toughn. >> when they talk about it. they said sales were down.
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if there is good news, they have achieved cost-cutting targets one year before they intended to. they are a little bit out front. the other good there's,news, the net loss of 3.1 billion down one billion from last year. they are going to have a green energy company which is hopefully going to be able to compete in germany. they are going to sell off a lot of their other assets. nuclear, and whatnot. -- coal nuclear and whatnot. we are going to hear about their path forward and what their future may be.
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we will see if they give any indication of what they plan to do with their north sea assets. bad numbers, not horrible numbers. the dividend market is going to be $.50 per share. that is what we expected as well. >> hans nichols in berlin. the top stories on bloomberg of this hour. hillary clinton says all her e-mails were secure. she kept work and personal e-mails at home in the state of new york. she says she has turned over all the e-mails including more than 30,000 copies. >> looking back, it would have been smarter to have used to devices, -- two devices, but i have confident that everything
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that could be in any way connected to work is in the position of the state department. > two women are suing goldman sachs for allegedly pay discrimination. the judge says they are two different -- too different to be considered in a single class action. potential damages would increase if found liable. italy's top court has upheld the acquittal of sylvia harris going. -- berlusconi. he had been acquitted by a court last july.
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and top gear star jeremy clarkson has been suspended after allegedly aiming a punch at one of the producers. that is according to reports in several newspapers. the broadcaster -- pulled his transmission of the show in the u.k. you can join the conversation on twitter. tell us what you think of the show. anna i will be joining me in roughly 20 minutes. manus cranny is in zurich having interviewed the still ceo of credit suisse, brady dougan, soon to be former ceo. there i am. 6:37 in london. stay with us. ♪
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>> time for today barth chart. what are the worst performing currencies? they are former soviet republics. have a look at the worst four performing currencies against the dollar in 2015. that is out of 174 tracked by bloomberg. top, the ukrainian currency.
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down by 27% against the u.s. dollar. it it has actually recovered from number two, the belarusian ruble. down 27% against the u.s. dollar. number three, the azerbaijani m anat. down 25% against the dollar. number four is the moldovan currency. all four linked to the ruble slump against the dollar, the ruble paris the plunge threatens to flood smaller neighboring countries like these former soviet republics with cheaper russian-made goods. that undermines their trade imbalance. well this relieves the pressure by keeping their currencies
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competitive against the ruble, the flipside of the coin is higher inflation. fact it is more expensive to repay foreign debt. charles robinson says there is very little these types of countries. it would take years to loosen economic links with moscow. they have certainly been busy in 2015. belarus decided to do value it's ruble in january, tightened capital controls after the currency fell to a record low. ukraine raising their interest rate to 30%. the highest interest rate in the world. georgia, armenia, they have also raised interest rates to little effect. the currency to watch, the ruble. all these currencies are very much linked to the ruble. it has rebounded to percent since the end of january.
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the central bank could be sitting at up for further losses by reversing course. the central bank surprised the market, raising interest rates to 17% in one day. it cut rates again surprising the markets in february. morgan stanley says it may do so again this week. these are the world's four worst performing currencies against the dollar and 2015. top stories in bloomberg, the labor secretary warning and next set could harm security. he said if it were to splinter no one would be more pleased than vladimir putin. david cameron studying the possibility of cutting
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intelligence agency's budget to help meet a nato target. it says the government is seeking to meet a nato target for defense spending of 2% of gdp. mark carney has welcomed the program of qe. he said the 1.1 trillion program could boost growth over three years in the zone. x our estimate is the --, >> >> are estimate is the impact would be just over one percentage point of gdp over the next three years. >> the 2013 hit "blurred line."" has not been without controversy. now the writers have lost a copy
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right suit. >> funnily enough they sued first. they countered sued. marvin gaye's family countersued. this song has hundreds of million views. it made about 60 million dollars in profit for its writers. it has not been without controversy. look at the video. a little bit risque. demonstrations in the u.s.. it was banned in student unions because of lyrics that were outlandish. the controversy is since mid-2013, the industry has been enraptured by the suit.
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the blurred lines between when is a song reminiscent and it is copied. it is claimed it was not just reminiscent of marvin gaye it actually constituted plagiarism. sadly, we are waiting for the songs. i will not sing them. overall, what they are saying they claim robin thicke didn't just copy one song, he had a marvin gaye fixation. they say another song infringed on "i want you can."the jury found it has infringed on the song overall. they owed $7.4 million.
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this is thought to be the largest damages ever awarded. >> the writers made 16 million. >> they are not going to be bankrupt. but it is a huge settlement. the marvin gaye family, the three children who only breaks to be sound, say it has been long and hard fought and at times, emotional. on the flipside, what does it do for creativity? the likes of -- they were trying to say, this was a folk in an era. -- evoking an era. it was starkly different than marvin gaye three think of the number of songs drawing inspiration. robin thicke was there, singing .he performed on a keyboard.
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rated them altogether to say, you can hear melodies that are similar. that perhaps people draw inspiration from each other. the lawyers were saying is not improperly derived. it came out robin thicke had little to do with it. >> didn't feature the other rapper as well? >> he produced it and got more profits overall permit overall they say they are disappointed. they say he created "blurred lines" from the heart, mind, and soul. interestingly, this is not without president to read we have seen big settlements happened before. we have to go back to michael bolton. >> i remember him coming back in
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the 1990's. he has short hair now. >> 1994, michael bolton and sony had to pay $5 million because their song, "love is a wonderful thing," it was meant to infringe on another song by a soul band. it seemed to that michael bolton had copied and used all the same lyrics. they had to pay out. equally, george harrison's "my sweet lord." " he is so fine" was released in the 60's. the george said, i don't think he purposely plagiarized but they sounded too similar. >> this has happened.
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it has not put off people creating new music. or stopped megahits. but maybe it will stop all those future artists from wanting to hurled back to a different era. they might be a little cautious. they might have more discussions with their lawyers. >> didn't he give an interview with gq he said he wanted to write a song inspired by marvin gaye? >> he said to gq it was his favorite song and he wanted to a vote the era -- evoke the era. that is what they cited in the court case. clearly, robin thicke said it was his favorite tsonga read >> can we get those songs up?
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i want to hear them. can we get them up? >>. our. -- here we go. ♪ this is the marvin gaye, "got to give it up." >> can we bring in "blurred lines." ♪ there is inspiration. is this ok and an era? -- invoking an era? >> the judge said $7 million. >> you didn't find it controversial in terms of the lyrics? >> it is just a brilliant song. when you heard it in 2013, he worked cooked. also, "get lucky."
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both brilliant songs, immensely catchy. >> let's hope it doesn't detract from what has been a huge success. we will look back at our favorite stories including while the watch may attract a geeky guys but not women. stay with us. ♪
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>> time for our top choices from bloomberg's digital output. >> we are wondering whether women will buy the apple watch. they are trying to show off this is a female friendly tech product. they had one of the most famous models in the world wearing it. showing how she used it to run a marathon in africa. the reaction seems to be next. reporters have gone out speaking to female students saying are you going to replace your watch? a lot of women do not wear watches or are using it for fashion statements. people are saying, this is aimed at fitness fanatic females or largely men. i do not wear much wearable
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tech. i wear a watch more as fashion. i don't think it put me off the apple watch. i do not think i will be pumping out $10,000. i will wait until they get it seamless and beautiful. then maybe i will spend more than a few hundred. >> he became the player who scored the most gold in european football. he scored a two in rail madrid -- real madrid's loss. in the champions league, he scored 75. lionel messi, the argentine in. --he scored 60 goals in the last
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games. the odds of that happening 500 to one. incredible red back to zurich with manus cranny. stay with us. ♪
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anna: global stocks selloff. the strongest dollar and weakest euro in a dozen years sent a shock wave through the markets. we will bring you the latest of mario draghi's speech in frankfurt. mark: the credits we sti -- credit suisse chief executive tells bloomberg his replacement is the man for the job. >> he's got the management background. he's got a strong track record in the emerging markets, both of which fit well with our business. anna: meeting the creditors. european finance chiefs gear up for talks with grace. else remain about whether athens
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will open its books for inspection. we are live in the capital. mark: welcome to "countdown." anna: warm welcome to the second hour of the program. also coming up, pharrell williams and robin thicke pay a multimillion dollar tribute to the late marvin gaye. but by the hand of the court. we bring you the latest. mark: let's talk markets. the strongest dollar and weakest euro in a dozen years fueling a selloff in global equities. the s&p 500 closed down. corporate earnings are in worse shape than investors recognize. the ftse 100 fell 2.5% in london, pullover by commodities. european equities closed lower as well. the euro-dollar fell to $1.06.
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it was buoyed which sent shares up by almost 6%. anna: let's stick with that credits we story. a transition. the new man at the top will be to gently m. the announcement of his appointment had a positive effect on the credit suisse stock. what about the man he is replacing, brady dougan? dugan sent down with manus cranny in zurich to talk about his time at credit suisse. he began by acknowledging the challenges he's faced. >> i think we accomplished a lot. it has been a challenging period. the last eight years have been one of the most challenging periods to lead a global bank in a long time. i've been here 25 years in total. i'm very close to all the people , very close to the businesses. spent the bulk of my life with this company. obviously, it is very mixed
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feelings. on one hand, we wanted to make sure this was done in the right way at the right time and in the right way, which i think we have accomplished. i think that is quite good. it was a clean transition. i think the market is relatively positive. obviously, there's a lot of history here, a lot of close connections with people. i do love the firm and the people here. that makes it hard. manus: we get together every quarter and i say, are you going to cut risk-weighted assets more aggressively? many of your detractors will say you did the heavy lifting and tidjane thiam walked in, revamped in 100 days, and cut off low hanging fruit. there is some merit in that. >> it has been a long period of challenges for the industry. there's been a lot of work we've had to do. i think we've been proactive. i think that has actually been
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good. frankly, i hope for the sake of the organization that there is less to go. obviously, it is dynamic. we think with the targets we've set for this year, that puts us in a pretty good place. we think that puts us in a pretty good place, but it is a dynamic environment. my fervent hope is that that is the case and it does get easier from here are the industry and for credit suisse. manus: the balance between wealth management with asset management, is he the right fit? >> i've known tidjane for a long time. i've always been very impressed with his intellect, with his courage, with his vision. i think he's a great person. the question of the fifth, i think it is a very good fit.
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he's got the management background. he's got a strong track record of growing in emerging markets. overall, i think he's a good manager and a great guy. anna: credit suisse added nearly 3 million swiss francs to its market cap in yesterday's trading session. at the press conference in zurich, manus cranny was in the front row and had the opportunity to sit down with brady dougan. good morning, manus. what was your sense of the occasion? manus: i thought, very well orchestrated between the three of them. i suppose the great accusation is that dougan didn't go far enough in terms of transitioning the bank. this was about managing transition. it was dougan who raised it last autumn and dougan who said let's start the process of
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looking for a successor. you get these snippets with the ceo's every quarter. you get to know them a little bit. this is dougan trying to manage his own destiny. what really caught my imagination was tidjane thiam first started in german followed up in french, and answered in english. there is a nuance there, playing to the gallery and to the stall, the swiss media, talking about his coming in with a clean slate. i thought what was most interesting, this is the comment which will be either something that follows tidjane thiam for the rest of his career, or we begin to understand -- he's reorganized many investment banks. the mathematics in derivatives in investment banking is quite primitive.
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this is a ceo who has not run an investment bank, but he knows a terrible amount of how to do it. if you are an investment bank right now, you would begin to wonder. that was his take. it was very well-crafted. i got a sense that dougan felt a little relieved, not that he was going to be interviewed by me, but that he was in control. anna: going off his european language skills, tidjane thiam some analysts talk about how it is his asian experience that credit suisse wants to tap into. let's focus on brady dougan. tell us more about his career. manus: i think what is ironic is that he comes out of an institution called bankers trust. it was originally just around the corner from where bloomberg is. i started off in london. it was a hotbed for derivatives, very smart guys.
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he went to tokyo. he went to new york. he did derivatives. he did equities. he did bond underwriting. he worked under john mack. maybe he should have learned more from mack the knife. the man who/12,000 jobs from credit suisse. when it came time to understand i found it fascinating. this is a ceo who was a billion-dollar producer long before billion-dollar producers existed. >> certainly, as you get into larger and larger management position, it becomes less fun. running smaller businesses and having a close relationship with everybody who works in the business and growing and building businesses, that is where i had the most fun. building businesses, creating new businesses. there were a number of businesses over the years that we pretty much created businesses that didn't exist.
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that is really fun. but it has all been satisfying in different ways. even this job, with all the challenges of the past eight years, a very difficult period to be a ceo of a global bank, a lot of satisfaction. manus: the challenge for tidjane thiam is fairly straightforward, how much and in what way do you change the investment bank? how aggressively do you cut risk-weighted assets? what impact does that have on jobs and how much capital will that boost to the bottom line and the balance sheet to keep the regulators happy? interesting day. managing transition very well at this stage. back to you. anna: manus, thank you. so many euphemistic uses of the word "challenge." mark: bad news for the euro today which has fallen to a
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12-year low against the dollar. the slump comes as mario draghi and other policymakers prepare to address a conference in frankfurt focused on the effectiveness of the central bank's sovereign bond buying plan. let's get to peter, investment director at citifinancial who is chuckling when i talk about the effectiveness of the bond buying plan. it seems to be effective. yields have been driven down. you wonder if there are enough bonds to be bought. >> the euro slide, you called it a slump. part of it is useful for the eurozone. it will help growth. it will help earnings. there was marginally better news coming from the euro economy before the buying program began. if you want to do the divergence of economic outlook, europe looks better place. yesterday, u.k. felt 2.4%.
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it gets a lot of support in 8, 9 weeks. 31 billion of new flows. it is a lot of money. anna: perhaps the ftse 100 complicates things because of its exposure to commodity stocks. if you look at what continental european stocks did versus the u.s., that's where you see the true story, is it? is that worry about the dollar? >> already, there was an earnings problem. if you look at the announcements, even pre-christmas, they were already citing dollar strength as a challenge. that's fairly consistent with the idea of an interest rate change. the dollar get stronger. if you look at the u.s. the have been doing marginally better. it is conforming to a pattern.
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you can look at the next phase as one in which the rest of the world takes up the poison chalice, if you like. they will take up the challenge of running with higher stimulus is. there is annual pouring onto that. bond buying programs. you buy the treasuries in the u.s.. other assets are beneficiaries. that is the upside of qe if you think of it as an upside. anna: what will be your measure of success? >> the actual plan is to stimulate the underlying economy. at the end of the day, the hope is somehow qe has been put into this box where it stimulates economic growth. there is no evidence of that. it seems primarily to benefit asset pricing. some of the numbers, spain
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germany, we are doing this conversation that europe has had a torrid time. it is not as if our pockets have been doing well for a considerable time. this comes at a point in which the cycle looked like it was turning. it was unloved. it was out of favor with asset allocators. you've got better marginal news and an underweight position. mark: very quickly, in athens today -- >> administrators. [laughter] europe seems to be turning against greece, even its former pals. france, spain, portugal, they are all turning against greece. >> varoufakis is interesting. greece is definitively bankrupt. it has got a massive debt to
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gdp. they kick it down the road and what they have is the same thing they had a month ago. there will be some facing off again as they position themselves in advance of the next meetings. threats of referendum in greece are all good fun. they are not going to manifest themselves. grexit is not yet. we should realize that the european union is ready to force it out. mark: back in a second. peter toogood will stay with us. anna: more on that with our next conversation. the top stories on bloomberg this hour. china's industrial output retail sales growth missed analyst estimates in january. that suggests more stimulus may be needed to boost the world's second-largest economy. factory production rose 6.8% with retail sales advancing 10.7% january and february.
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bank of england governor mark carney has hinted that a probe into money market auctions will examine both external traders and bank officials. giving evidence to the house of lords economic affairs committee, connie said that investigators had advised the bank not to comment on the matter to avoid risk of prejudicing it. >> i will leave it to the sfo to answer that. the clarity that has been provided is around auctions and there are a variety of participants. anna: the biggest banks in the u.s. will get their annual report card from the federal reserve later today when the fed releases results from the second of two phases of stress tests. the federal reserve said all 31 big banks that went through the test have enough capital to absorb losses during a sharp economic downturn. mark: join the conversation on twitter. the french 10-year bond yielding
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below 0.5%. you will find manus in zurich today. anna: as i mentioned, just to reiterate, the bank of thailand cutting its key rate from 2% part of that global easing trend. that was unexpected by economists. we will get more on that when we come back. stay tuned to bloomberg. we will speak to one man who is sure to have an opinion on the state of the eurozone. he is the former italian prime minister. stay with us. ♪
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>> if it were identified that we were in a period of prolonged supply shock which had positive productivity implications such as whether it is in computing, whether it is through globalization, there might be a case for adjusting the level of the inflation target. mark: bank of england governor mark carney talking about his battle with inflation targets. he had to defend the target at 2% as inflation stayed near record lows. let's bring our guest back into the conversation. he is peter toogood.
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election permutations have the potential to move u.k. financial markets. discuss. >> nice one. there won't be a majority. you can't see it, can you? it is fairly clear, it will be problematic. they are trying to form some kind of alliance. you will end up with a minority government potentially. it means you end up with difficult times. the conservatives want to get you out of europe and the labour party want to turn you more socialist. that is not particularly good news for financial markets. anna: if the nationalist voice -- what does that do to u.k. assets? >> the answer appears to be, we will spend our way out of it. [indiscernible] on the other side, the eu exit
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plan they are so engaged with trying to get us all to buy into , it is going to be challenging. if you look at what managers are doing, the banks are under scrutiny. the utility companies are potential targets for a left-leaning government. people are getting more nervous. you can see some action in the stock market already. against that people are a little more positive about the economic domestic situation in the united kingdom. they are marginally increasing their cyclicality towards the consumer. regardless of the political outcome, at the margin, the u.k. economy is doing quite well. hence the positive story. that is quite interesting. even though they are concerned about the election, they are focused on playing into that. mark: is fear of exit from the
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eu becoming the overriding fear of this election? >> i think it is the consequence of what comes next showed the tories have to get in to keep themselves in power and it becomes an obsession. we are the main fdi beneficiaries in the eurozone because of our flexibility in labor. it will put a cloud underneath that. you see all those good things about london and the city. i think there will be a challenge in fdi. why do we have to bother with all this? we don't really want to leave the eu. 50 million people floating in a sea of 7 million. we are going through the machinations of this. it is a challenge. it will be a problem after the election. anna: peter, thank you for giving us your time and thoughts. mark: eu officials gearing up for a look at greece's accounts today as greece agrees to open up its books.
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it was decided that creditors would return to athens. it was unclear last night whether any appointment had been confirmed as greece runs out of money, time, and allies. is it in a position to push back? hans nichols is in berlin. where are we? will they be allowed to look at the books? hans: mark we know that auditors are due to arrive in athens today. we know from two former troika officials and two greek officials that there weren't any meetings planned. a separate official in brussels said everything was going according to schedule. we don't know if there is time for these officials to actually look at the books. here is what mr. viso bluhm said yesterday. he seems to be increasing his rhetoric and his worry. he says we can only start discussions when people are welcome in athens.
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if that remains an issue, the process won't start and the clock continues to tick. i told the greek minister it will have to start tomorrow. that is mr. dijsselbloem saying his credibility is on the line. how much time does athens have? how much money does greece have coming in? according to one eu official, there is anywhere from one to three weeks left before they run out of money. the point is, they don't know. that's why it is crucial that everyone looks at the books in athens. in the offing, 7.2 billion euros aid disbursement. to get that money, they have to agree. greece is going to have to open up their books and show progress on implementing reforms. mark: without any money, what can athens do to meet their obligations? hans: they can raid some
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internal accounts. they've got their social security trust fund. syriza is pressing the trust fund to make those moneys available to the common fund. that is according to "the financial times." the social security fund doesn't like that idea. it is unclear where the money is going to come from and what sort of financial and accounting money shifting you can do and how so you're the crunch is. we won't know until creditors are able to look at the books. mark: hans nichols in berlin today. our international correspondent. 7:25 here in london. futures indicating stocks in europe will open higher today. the big selloff did a car in the united states. anna: gains for the euro raised. it seems driven by a concern
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about what the strength of the dollar does to u.s. earnings. you have to wonder, why would that have such a negative impact on european markets? it was having a negative impact on some of the commodity related stocks in london. the european markets didn't do so badly. that was a distinction that peter was drawing. some of this driven by currencies. this is where the euro-dollar is. mark: parity going to be reached. at the start of the year orchestral -- forecasters were saying 1.18. we are at 1.06 right now. you sense those forecasts coming down further. anna: people getting bolder. increasing numbers of people putting themselves in the parity cap. this is where you will find us on twitter. a couple of surprises already this morning. the french yield on the 10 year bond down. mark: thailand cutting rates. how many central banks have cut
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rates this year? anna: 55% have cut in the last three months. that must be changed now. mark: still to come, more on that interview with brady dougan. ♪
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mark: you are watching "countdown." time for your foreign-exchange check. euro against the dollar. the euro falls to its lowest level against the dollar since march 27, 2003. qe enters its third day. talk of a u.s. rate hike gathers pace, lifting the dollar pushing the euro down. fascinating to see where the euro started 2015. 1.20. down to 1.06. it has fallen a good 13 euro cents in the space of just 2.5
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months. it is on track for its worst quarterly drop ever against the dollar. that eclipses the 10.6% drop it experienced during the financial crisis. on a trade weighted basis, the euro is down by 6.8% year-to-date. that is the most in the group. against 31 major currencies only two are rising the swedish krona and the brazilian real. it is the beginning of the year. out of the analysts we surveyed they forecast the euro would end the year at 1.18. they made that 1.10 within two months. now it has gone to 1.07, which begs the question, how low do most analysts forecast the euro will reach? anna: the top stories on
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bloomberg this hour. hillary clinton says all her e-mails were secured during her time as u.s. secretary of state. clinton cap work and personal e-mails on a server at her home. she says she turned over all her e-mails to the state department including more than 30,000 paper copies of messages relating to government business. >> looking back, it would have been probably smarter to have used two devices, but i have absolute confidence that everything that could be in any way connected to work is now in the possession of the state department. anna: two women are suing goldman sachs for alleged pay discrimination. a judge says they shouldn't be allowed to bring their case against the bank together. a u.s. judge in manhattan says the cases are two different from one another to be considered in
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a single class action. if the women were able to sue together, potential damages would increase. goldman denies discriminating against women. italy's top court has upheld the acquittal of former prime minister silvio berlusconi on charges of paying for sex with an underage nightclub dancer. berlusconi had been acquitted last july of paying the girl known as ruby the heart stealer and of using his power to obtain her release. jeremy clarkson has been suspended by the bbc. it has been alleged that he aimed a punch at one of his shows producers. according to several newspapers, "top-tier" is the bbc's top worldwide export. mark: as bloomberg reported yesterday, the new man at the top of credit suisse will be tidjane thiam.
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let's get more from bloomberg's interview with the man he's replacing, brady dougan. dougan sat down with manus cranny in zurich. they discussed the potential of global universal banking. >> i think the question about the concept of global universal banking is different from what you mentioned. i think for credit suisse, an important issue is, we have an important franchise but it is also fairly focused. it is the high-end of the private bank globally. it is a capital efficient high returning investment banking model. that is far from a universal banking model. i think there's going to the room for a lot of different models. there are going to be some universal banks that actually work and make their business model work. i think that's hard. it probably has gotten harder. there probably are going to be more firms that focus down into
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certain areas that they are really good at. that has always been our view. as a result of the crisis, you are going to get more and more focused more and more specialization. i think that's fine. we feel like we've got a great segment in terms of the private banking, the institutional business, making those work together. we think we can drive one of the highest return businesses in the industry. anna: for more on what the change in ceo means for the bank, we are joined by the head of london-based analysts. great to see you as ever. what does this tell us about the strategy of credit suisse and the regulatory environment? >> i think it tells you, like the interview just said, global private banking is really the core of credit suisse.
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the equity market values the stable earnings profile of that business and the capital-like business model more highly than investment banking. especially the sort of balance sheet-heavy, lower margin type businesses which have been under pressure for the last two years. mark: is it going to be a clone of ubs? >> it certainly looks that way. ubs arguably had a strong equity base to fall on. credit suisse, in fairness to them, always had a little bit more of a high-yield emerging market focus. i obably bank on higher interest rates, higher yields in those markets to last for longer.
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we are in an environment right now where higher yields are difficult to make on a sustainable basis. anna: as manus was telling us, tidjane thiam, the new ceo was showing off his language skills, his european language skills. is it actually his asia experience that the banks want to tap into? if you focus on private banking, is that where the growth opportunities are going to come from? >> i would suspect very much so. euro people, they all speak many languages. i think that would be the deciding factor. i think very much the experience in asia in building an asset-gathering business in asia , i suspect had a lot to do with his selection for the job. mark: how much should we make of
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the fact that tidjane thiam has never run a bank? he's going to have to grasp the intricacies of the investment banking division. is that a negative or a plus? >> i think it is a fair question. for me, it would probably be a negative. i think ultimately they are different businesses. people act differently. the drivers are different. i'm sure he's very experienced so sure, we will also get a lot of help in doing all this. but on balance to me it is more of a risk than an asset. anna: does it suggest they are about to do something quite drastic on strategy? they bring in an outsider who may have more success in bringing -- in being quite ruthless. >> this leadership change would
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suggest that. credit suisse was already moving in the direction of cutting back substantially in the investment bank. i would imagine if you bring in somebody who's basically made their name growing an asian asset gathering business and replacing somebody who is an investment banker, that's basically all you need to know. mark: what is the right business model in this era of higher capital requirements, low interest rates regulations barclays stepping back from investment banking, standard chartered is, rbs is. we have a story on bloomberg saying that deutsche bank could benefit if credit suisse retreats. they might benefit at the margin. what is the winning model going forward in this troubled time for banking? anna: the winning --
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>> the winning model is still emerging. i wouldn't suggest there is one winning model. like mr. dougan said in your interview, i think it has been for ages always a matter of building specialist operations in various parts of the market. i think different parts of the market are very different drivers. i don't know as much, but i'm sure the private banking world has very different requirements than investment banking. it seems very clear what in the last few years has happened is a complete change in regulation which has especially impacted the fixed income businesses, which are very balance sheet-heavy and low-margin. that gets adjusted. funny enough, at a time when
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there is an underlying trend for corporates to access the capital markets, maybe the primary business is really in a secular growth phase while the secondary trading model needs to change and is changing. anna: thank you very much for joining us. otto dichtl. mark: twitter time. you can join us. tell us what you think. tell us the stories you are following today. manus is in zurich. up next nbart chart time. the four worst-performing currencies. ♪
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mark: time for today's bart chart. what are the worlds worst-performing currencies? against the dollar, we've tracked 174 currencies here at bloomberg this year. these are the worst four. the worst one, ukrainian hryvnia. 27% lower against the dollar. belarusian ruble, down by 27%. the azerbaijani manat, not every day i get to say that, 25%
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lower. finally, the moldovan leu a decline of 16%. they are all former soviet republics. they are feeling the aftershock of the russian financial crisis, the fighting in ukraine. both are showing some signs of easing. the drop in all these currencies are in reaction to the decline in the russian ruble. all the economies are closely tied to russia's ruble. it fell by 46% against the dollar last year. that threatens to flood these types of countries with cheaper imports from russia. that undermines their trade balance. on the plus side, by devaluing they are keeping their currencies competitive against the ruble. the flip side is, with lower currencies, higher inflation. it is more expensive to repay your foreign debt. a chief economist says there is very little that these types of
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currencies and countries can do to stem the slide in their currencies. it would take years to loosen economic links with moscow. they have been busy trying to an act measures. uluru's devalued its ruble -- belarus devalued its ruble after the country fell to a record low. ukraine raising its benchmark interest rate to a record high 30% last week after the currency fell to a record low. georgia armenia, they've also been raising rates. the currency to watch is the ruble, the russian ruble, as all the economies are very closely tied to russia. since the end of january, it has rebounded against the dollar. it is up by 11%. morgan stanley says it could be setting the ruble up for further declines by reversing course
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after last year's rate increase. we had that surprise rate increase by the central bank of russia in december. it surprised the world by raising rates in february. it took back some of that. morgan stanley says it could do the same again, putting pressure on the ruble. what is that going to do to the worst performing currencies? anna: 7:47 in london. europe's largest -- said profit would be subdued. the ceo tells a cc 2015 about laying the foundation for growth. >> we will deliver a significant improvement this year. i think this shows that we want to increase our results significantly. 2015 will be a year of preparation and transformation for us to leave a good foundation for our midterm
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targets until 2020. we are investing this year in changes in our organization to prepare our business even better for growth opportunities. anna: u.k. labour party's europe spokesman is warning that exit from the european union would harm british security. pat mcfadden will say that if the eu were to splinter, no one would be more pleased than russian president putin. british prime minister david cameron is studying the possibility of counting the intelligence agencies budget to help me nato targets. the report says the government is seeking to meet nato targets for defense spending of 2% of gdp. i cap england governor mark carney has welcomed quantitative easing, giving evidence to the house of lords economic affairs committee. carney says the 1.1 trillion euro program could boost growth
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in the eurozone over three years. >> our estimate is that the net impact would be just in the order of under 1% of gdp over the course of the next three years. mark: now, the 2013 megahit "blurred lines" hasn't been without controversy. now its writers, robin thicke and pharrell williams, have lost a multimillion dollar copyright infringement suit. here with more is caroline hyde. it has been a bit of an obsession. this is a big fine. caroline: $7.4 million, the biggest fine, one of the biggest we've ever seen. it has been an obsession in the music industry for a year and a half. this has sparked so much controversy, not only because it sparked demonstrations in the united states, students banning the song in some unions in the u.k. because of sexual politics
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that it sparked in terms of the lyrics and video. now the controversy comes about "blurred lines" between what is taking views, evoking a particular time, what is reminiscent, and what is out and out copying of a song. it was thought that this song was not too reminiscent of marvin gaye's song "got to give it up." have a listen. make your mind up. ["blurred lines' playing] ["got to give it up" playing] caroline: the jury found that the 2013 best-selling song was thought to have been infringing the copyright of marvin gaye's
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family, the children of marvin gaye who own the rights to this song. $7.4 million is what they've got to pay out. it was interesting. they cited an interview that robin thicke did saying i said, "got to give it up" was my favorite song and let's make something with that groove. interestingly, there's controversy about how the court case came about. it was pharrell williams and robin thicke and t.i. who preemptively sued robin -- marvin gaye's family. they sued not only that family but also funkadelic because they thought they were about to get hit themselves. in turn, these people countersued. funkadelic settled last year. anna: what has been the reaction of the artists involved?
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caroline: they say it evoke an era. they set it is starkly different. i would have loved to have been in the courtroom. you have robin thicke at times playing certain songs, trying to show how familiar and similar certain sums are. he played a medley of u2 the beatles, bob marley, as well as michael jackson. he tried to show that there are similarities between songs and medleys. you take inspiration, you don't out and out copy. we heard from lawyers howard king supporting pharrell williams saying they are extremely disappointed by the ruling. they say it set a horrible precedent or the music industry. they say pharrell play this with his heart, his mind, his soul. they are considering other legal options. it was a little note of saying, it is not going to bankrupt these people, but this isn't
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without precedent. we have seen previous sons attacked. we had michael bolton and sony payout $5 million. in 1994, the song "love is a wonderful thing" seemed to copy the 1960 song "love is a wonderful thing." they got $5 million on the back of that. george harrison's "my sweet lord" seemed to have copied "he's so fine" from the 1960's as well. the judge said, i don't think he purposely plagiarized, but it sounds too similar. more recently "bittersweet symphony" was pointed out as a song that has not been sued by one, but by two rolling stones previous managers because it seemed too much like "the last time the account this keeps happening -- "the last time."
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this keeps happening. it is perhaps a little bit of it is going to be painful for pharrell williams. it was the caps on of 2013 and he basically produced the whole thing. what a court case. anna: time for our own blurred lines. let's make no attempt to transition. six minutes away from the start of european equity trading. greece is going to be one of the focuses. caroline: it has been. we are expecting a miniscule bounce today in equity markets. basically, we have been under pressure today and some of the concerns about greece we've got the officials in the ecb, the european commission, the imf, they are beginning talks about a supposed bailout. that starts in brussels. we've got technical discussions in athens. they start tomorrow. the creditors get to check the
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books. they want to look underneath the bonnet of the engine that is greece. and of course this is all about the outstanding loans of 7 billion euros to greece. they've got to show that they are walking the line that the ecb, the european commission, and the imf want. the finance minister of greece doesn't want to call them. mark: yesterday, we saw gains for the year wiped away, but the stoxx 600 this year is up by 14%. i wonder when the last time there was a disparity of 14% between europe and the u.s. if the european stock market finishes this year with a gain of 14%, it is its best year ever. caroline: interesting. french 10-year bond yields below 0.5%. we continue to see that weakening. mark: how many central banks cut
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rates? anna: more than 55%. caroline, thank you very much. more from caroline later in the morning. stay with us. ♪ . .
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anna: good morning and welcome to on the move. we are in the city of london and moments away from the start of european equity trading. let's start the brief. stocks selling drags the s&p into negative territory. the euro drops to a 12 year low against the dollar and bond yields hit the lowest level ever. in just a few minutes, mario draghi will speak about the effectiveness of monetary policy. the group formerly known as the troika arrives in athens. will they pry open the books?
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this is what we are watching. european equities are set for a small bounce. also, quite substantial losses in markets yesterday. let's get caroline hyde with the details. caroline: the equity markets followed suit and have awoken to the issue that the united states may be raising rates. it puts downward pressure on the united states. the biggest fall since january. emerging market stocks have been falling for nine straight days. the longest losing streak since september. yet, we are opening up .4% on the ftse 100. we are getting back some of the falls we saw yesterday. speculation is growing on whether the federal reserve will raise rates.


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