tv On the Move Bloomberg March 19, 2015 4:00am-5:01am EDT
many find a compromise? could russia's see more sanctions? a high tension summit as eu leaders had to belgium. that's what we are watching this morning. european markets just opening up, getting a first chance to digest what we heard from the federal reserve. let's check in with manus cranny. manus: u.s. equity markets really surged. the s&p of over 1.4%. europe just a little bit hesitant. the markets have been surging. when i was reading the notes from janet yellen, i thought, you go on there. you just lit the torch paper of volatility. you mentioned communication. that doesn't mean we are going to be impatient. volatility in equity markets dropped yesterday. pulling the french market back a little bit. saffron and airbus both down
over 1%. some individual news that is worth bringing to our viewers' attention, these are three stocks we will be watching. well holcim do the deal with lafarge? is bruno the man that the market wants to see at the helm? lafarge wants to do a deal and they want new management structure. that has implications for this company, crh up 0.9%. 24.70 is where we are. he's got his eye closely fixed on that. next this is where it gets a little spicy. full-year numbers. they have lowered their guidance for this year. they say you are going to see sales rise between 1.5% and
5.5%. originally, they set a rise between 2.5% and 7.5%. they are in 70 countries at the moment. the market doesn't like the critical issue. we get some data from switzerland. central-bank comments later on from mr. jordan. johnny is on his way to do that interview. we have seen exports drop over 2%. they've dropped their sales. still doing very little to impact that particular stock. the question is -- actually let's have a look at the two-year government bond. still trading at 0.55%. one of the single biggest moves in the bond market in almost six years. that was the biggest rise in price, drop in yield that you saw.
the fed has slashed their view of where rates are going to be. 0.65%, coming back to where the markets believe rates are going to be. the market was a little suspect about the fed possibility to pump those rates higher. yellen's message is clear. i'm not necessarily patient. don't read that as impatience. back to you, anna. anna: thank you very much. the fed is in full focus today as manus was saying. it has been a matter of obsession for investors, trying to figure out the timing of the fed's first rate hike in more than a decade. yellen warns not to get hung up on the words. >> just because we removed the word "patient" from the statement doesn't mean we are going to be impatient. anna: from patients but not to
impatience. that is the message from janet yellen. let's get an investors take. we are joined by edmund. good to see you, edmund. good morning. how do you read the linguistics around patience and impatience and the area in between? guest: i don't. i'm almost at the point of not caring anymore. to be honest, people have overdone this. people are trying to dissect what janet yellen yellen and the rest of the fed are saying. really, they shouldn't be. they should be spending their time on more important endeavors. the bottom line is very simple. they are telling us that they remain data dependent. we will raise rates when we think it is time, dependent on the data. employment data, inflation data. they are bringing us back to that. what they did do is shift the goal post slightly by dropping
the rate at which unemployment can drop without pushing inflation up. anna: nearer to 5%. edmund: which means there is less pressure on wage growth than previously thought by the fed. anna: so they can wait a little bit longer. edmund: potentially. but it wage growth accelerates and unemployment accelerates they can still move in june. they will move where the data tells them to move. anna: you quoted bridgwater in saying your biggest concern around all of this is that they move too soon. do a tree shape or and ecb. what do you mean by that? edmund: if you remember president reagan a -- president triche he raised rates too soon. it was the wrong thing to do from an economic point of view. dalio was just underlining that
fact. it is easy to raise rates to squeeze out inflation. what happens if we get deflation? what are they going to do then? we have fewer tools. zero interest rates already. already qe3. what is next? he's saying there is not a lot left in the toolbox. anna: one of the things that is impacting that deflation number is the strength of the dollar. this was a statement where they referenced that. you say they are dependent on the data. that's what we hear from janet yellen and the fed. r they dependent on the data and the dollar? edmund: the dollar obviously affect the data. anna: but you could get ahead of the data if you saw one dollars are doing. edmund: currencies are difficult to predict. the fed is going to hang its hat on what the dollar does from one day to the next. the dollar has been strengthening. that is impacting exports.
that is also impacting domestic inflation. anna: let's talk about some other matters. greece is on the agenda. russia is on the agenda. on greece, you say the germans are being a bit ridiculous. edmund: it is like an exercise in flagellation. let's get back to the beginning. greece should never have been in the eurozone. it was never an economic decision to put greece in the eurozone. politicians protesting greece are at fault, including the germans. now, got to pay the bill. you should not have let greece in. you did. there are bills to pay. germany, being the largest country and the strongest within the eurozone, has to pay a large share of that bill. they should swallow it up. anna: some of the rhetoric has been tough on both sides. it seems angela merkel may be seeking to calm us a little bit.
anna:. welcome back. i'm anna edwards. european leaders meet today in brussels. greece and ukraine are in focus. let's bring in joe and marcus bensasson in athens for a look at the story. first in brussels, joan satan joins us. our more sanctions against russia from the table? >> that is a question we are going to see about today. eu leaders are gathering in brussels in a few hours. they are still far apart on whether or not to extend the sanctions. the countries in the east generally there is a block that wants to extend them. other countries in the south and west would rather leave things the way they are and see if the cease-fire holds in eastern
ukraine. they are looking to see if that takes hold and russia abides by it. they are willing to give a little more time and make sure that happens before making a decision on sanctions. anna: a little bit more time perhaps. what does the greek prime minister hoped to get out of his meeting in brussels today? there is this general gathering of leaders and then a site meeting of tsipras and merkel. jones: that's right. greek prime minister tsipras has requested a special meeting on the sidelines of the summit. he wants to meet with merkel, with draghi,, with juncker, and also with hollande of france. i think he's trying to get some impetus behind the technical discussions that are taking place on greece's bailout program in order to get the
bailout money flowing again. the technical discussions have bogged down to a certain extent the creditors, the ecb, the imf and the euro area aren't quite happy with the way greece has been going lately. i think tsipras is trying to push this to a higher level and get something with the leaders that there can be an impetus for the technical talks that are ongoing. anna: jones, thank you very much. let's get the markets in athens. give us the view from athens. how isolated does greece feel at the moment? what are the tension points with the creditors? as we heard from jones, there are these meetings arranged. marcus: greece is pretty isolated right now. over the last few weeks questions have been going on in the technical level without really progressing.
a lot of the discussion, a lot of the arguments have been about what has that agreement actually meant. obviously, there's frustration all around on the lack of progress. there was a meeting of euro area finance officials which is where a lot of these discussions are hammered out. there was a meeting on monday which was by all accounts short and bad tempered. one of the complaints from the institutions formally known as the troika was greece is pushing ahead with what they call unilateral measures specifically legislation being driven through parliament tackling the social crisis and more legislation.
the technocrats say this is -- they weren't consulted enough. on the greek side, they are saying it is ridiculous. we can't -- tsipras gave a speech saying this is their first piece of legislation in years that has been written in greece rather than translated from what the technocrats have given us. greece is hoping to hammer it out on a political level with merkel, draghi, juncker, and so on. whether the counterparts will be receptive to that is another matter. marcus -- anna: markets, what does greece hope to get out of the summit?
marcus: a great outcome would be to get some financing. greece is very short of cash right now, with redemptions coming up. the intention to pay at the end of the month, that is very unlikely to happen today. greece is likely to be told, you need to make progress for more funding to be released. so that is the level on which there have been talks. anna: marcus bensasson joining us from athens. let's bring back edmund shing. edmund, you mentioned that you are soon to the with the greeks in this particular tussle. from an investor's perspective, how much is it playing into investment strategy, all this talk? do you feel that a deal will be done? edmund: exactly. that would be the bottom line.
it is in everyone's interest to reach a deal. chancellor merkel has issues within her own party. she wants to be more moderate. she has particular domestic difficulties to deal with. ultimately, they will move towards a compromise deal with greece. it will take time. both sides seem to be fighting to get the best deal. ultimately, it will get done. marcus: looking at your investment themes one of them is, recovery. edmund: if you look at the bloomberg monetary commission index, it is in favor of europe. europe very much on the up. the u.s. is very much on the down. when you look at pmi surveys, it is not just manufacturing but it is also domestic services that are getting a boost. that is interesting.
it means that consumers and households are feeling more confident and ready to spend some money. anna: does that mean you invest in companies that get a boost from the european consumer not the european businesses outside of europe? edmund: i think you can look at both. for my purposes, i would look more domestically. anna: let's talk about some other things you are investing in. technology and health care. where are the opportunities? edmund: with technology, it is difficult to focus on europe. you are focusing on taiwan and south korea. on the other hand, the u.s. i'm focusing on the u.s. at the moment, also looking at taiwan for semiconductors. i like the semiconductor sector. i think there is a lot of growth in terms of devices and things like memory chips. all of that is coming through. we are seeing higher gross margins as well as sales growth. anna: does the strong dollar
hurt any of this? edmund: to an extent, but i think the underlying fundamentals are much more important. in the long run, it is not going to kill the sector. anna: health care, where do you look for that? edmund: i tend to focus more on the u.s. that is the biggest health care market in the world. i'm looking at healthcare services on the one hand hospitals, insurers, who are still benefiting from obamacare, and secondly, generics. on the one hand generics because we all want cheaper drugs and there is huge growth in emerging markets as well as the u.s.. biotech because we still need new drugs. i look at companies like gilead companies with very strong sales growth going forward. anna: what kind of yields are you looking for these days?
the environment around bond markets has shifted so much. you are looking for alternative sources of yields. are you finding any? edmund: i am but you have to look in more unusual cases. forget sovereign bonds. forget cash. i am looking at municipal bonds state bonds that can give you 5%, 6%, or 7% dividend yields but which trade at a discount. they are holding bonds. you are buying their bonds cheaper and with a better dividend yield. what is not to like? anna: edmund shing global equities fund manager at bcs asset management. as we had to break, german chancellor angela merkel has been's aching before lawmakers in berlin. she calls the crimea referendum a tool for a russian land grab and says the ukraine crisis makes eu energy security all the more crucial. more on her comments throughout the morning. she is speaking in berlin this
morning, then she heads to brussels. before we go to the break, let's check in on what is happening on the european equity markets. not impatience nor inpatients it seems. this is where equity markets in europe are. they got a boost from janet yellen's comments yesterday. we will be back in a few minutes. ♪
anna: welcome back to "on the move." let's bring you up to speed with bloomberg's top stories. in tunisia, gunmen killed 22 people after storming a museum. the assailants first entered parliament before taking visitors hostage at a nearby museum. citizens from poland, italy, and germany were among at least 17 tourists killed. three japanese nationals were killed in the attack. russia has accused ukraine of breaching a cease-fire agreement by assigning a special status to some eastern regions of the nation. the claim comes as skirmishes continue in some parts of ukraine. eu leaders meet today in
brussels to consider the possibility of additional sanctions on russia. citigroup shareholders will vote next month on whether to defer a chunk of top executive pay for 10 years and use the money to cover fines if the bank breaks laws. it would be a substantial portion of annual compensation. citigroup has advised shareholders to reject the move. shares in nintendo surged for a second day into view at the the company said it had plans to develop games for mobile devices. the move marks an end to nintendo's resistance to using its iconic carriers like mario on the smartphone. the stock has jumped 75% over the last two days. coming up on the program, it is the smb rate decision. we will bring you the news in just a few minutes. later today, jonathan ferro will be speaking to the head of the smb, thomas jordan. we will bring you that.
in five minutes time, we will get the decision from the smb. we will also speak to andrew sentence senior economic adviser at pwc. he will be on the show with us. let's get a quick look at the currency markets. you can see what the dollar is doing. gaining some of its losses back this morning. the euro is 1.0651 against the dollar. #and dollar, 1.48. some fairly substantial moves. you can follow me on twitter. i am @annaedwardsnews. we will come back with that smb rate decision. the forecast is no change from the smb. they are not a central bank that is shy of surprising the market. we will see if they deliver any
anna: welcome back to "on the move." i'm anna edwards in london. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see how things are shaping up. up by 0.4% on the ftse 100. the ftse mib in italy getting a boost. 8:30, we are getting the decision from the swiss national bank. as expected, no change in interest rates. they are saying the frank overvaluation is still given. the franc is still significantly overvalued, is some of the
commentary. the two things we were waiting for the three-month libor target and the deposit rate, both of those are unchanged. this is a central bank that took big steps in january, removing the peg between the swiss currency and the euro. we saw a surge in the currency. the currency was of some 15% on the back of that move in january. it seems as if the snb wants to take more time to digest how that move has gone down with the markets but they are saying they remain active in the foreign exchange markets. the snb says to remain active in foreign exchange markets if necessary. they are giving up their 2015 and beyond forecast for the economy for growth and for inflation. we got forecasts this morning on inflation from the government. what the snb is saying is
similar. there forecast for inflation in switzerland is -1.1%. any movement we are getting in the currency, the dollar against the swiss franc on your screen. they are saying they are going to remain active in foreign exchange markets. that will be a topic of conversation between jonathan ferro and the man at the head of the swiss national bank. he is going to be talking to jon ferro a little later on today. we will bring you that interview. in the meantime, let's get a look at the stocks that are on the move. caroline. caroline: i'm looking at the leaderboard. keep an eye on per rally. up 3.5%. the reason that it is rising is on the back of some italian press saying maybe there will be new investors. it would be along with one of the biggest investors, the chairman ofp pirelli along
with unicredit as well. there will be a restriction -- a reconstruction. the italian newspaper says they may be delisted after a bit. keep an eye on that particular stock. meanwhile gold coming off of its highs today. it was droning higher yesterday and it is pushing up. fresnillo, a big silver minor but also a gold miner, is up almost 3.5%. the reason is that the federal reserve is pushing back potentially any timescale and the rate of rises we will see in interest rates. fresnillo and any sort of mining stocks are looking pretty rosy this morning. on the downside is the u.k. retailer next, down more than 3.6%.
is it a fashion faux pas? that is the key question. they are downsizing their full-year sales forecast. no longer will it be 7.5%. they are only going to reach as high as 5.5%. that is what they are telling us this morning. the consumer economy is looking be nine -- benign. they say last year, pretty much every single collection was right. this year, they haven't managed to do the same thing. certainly it seems as though the investor base are looking a little worrying they at these headlines. anna: caroline, thank you. never a fashion mistake. let's talk about central banks. it has been a busy week. we had the decision from the swiss national bank. no change in interest rates. yesterday, the fed lost its
patients line, dropping the phrase. the recs bank in sweden also cut rates deeper into negative territory. joining us now is a man or news at thing or two about central banks. senior adviser at pricewaterhousecoopers. great to see you. let's talk about this global easing trend. the swiss have their own challenge. the fed has a different direction in mind. the global easing trend, is that something that is going to last throughout 2015 and drag other central banks into it? andrew: i think what has happened is more about divergence. in the u.k. and the u.s., there is an expectation that rates will begin new rise at some point. in europe, there's an expectation that rates will stay low. central banks get caught in the middle of that. in a sense, they worry about the
exchange versus the euro. relatively weak against the dollar ahead of a surge yesterday. they are going to feel some upward pressure on the currency. anna: you say it is about divergence. how divergent can the usb, can the you k -- can the u.s. be, can the u.k. be? andrew: i don't think it is the u.s. being de-coupled from the global economy, in the sense that the u.s. economy is growing reasonably well. other parts of the global economy are growing reasonably well. the global economy is generally getting a boost from low oil prices. there is a spectrum. the u.s. and the u.k. at the top of that growth spectrum. some of the euro area economies are at the bottom of the spectrum. they are dragging down the level
of interest rate in europe. that is quite a longer-term structural problem. therefore, that resistance in divergence of interest rates is going to be with us for some time. anna: how do you view the strength of the u.s. economy right now? measuring data against expectations is one way to look at things. if you do that, the u.s. seems to be disappointing more than europe. andrew: that is a indication that expectations ran ahead too far. in some areas, like the labor market, it still looks quite resilient. i think we've seen this before. when the oil price moves, people expect growth benefits that come through more quickly than they do. in 1985-86, it wasn't until late 1987 that we began to see the benefits of that in terms of growth. we will probably see in the second half of this year more of
the benefits for consumers of these lower oil prices. consumers are benefiting from low inflation at the moment. marcus: and -- anna: and how does that play into the fed's decision? when do you see the fed putting up interest rate? andrew: i think the market expectation has been that they will move over the summer. people talked about june. it may be then. it may be later. i would have thought that if the u.s. economy continues to grow we continue to get reasonable data from the labor market -- unemployment is down around 5%. that is low by international standards. we should expect u.s. interest rates to rise either this summer or in the autumn. anna: we want to talk about the u.k. we have the budget out yesterday. what is your conclusion? there don't seem to be any big surprises.
that doesn't mean they won't deliver certain policy changes. andrew: there were no big surprises. perhaps housing was one that people hadn't anticipated. the broad direction of the budget being a fairly political budget help for pensioners savers, low income households and not really any significant changes in macroeconomic -- the chancellor spent the first half hour of the budget on the economic record talking about how well the u.k. economy had been doing talking about how he was getting borrowing down. he is actually able to announce the debt to gdp ratio will fall by about 0.2%. we are actually getting on top of the situation and stabilizing it. it is obviously a lot higher than it was before the financial crisis. i think the main message he
wanted people to take was -- and he has put it the economic plan is working. the things the government has been doing are coming through. if you look for us in the next election you should see a continuing growth. anna: how do you rate his record on the economy? do you think that george and austerity has driven this recovery or do you think the recovery has happened by george and austerity? andrew: there are two ingredients. one is what i call the bouncebackabio;lity of the u.k. economy. although historic advantages of the u.k. have helped us claw our way out of the recession. that hasn't been anything the chancellor has done. what he has done he has set a broadly consistent course. there are not many countries that have pursued a consistent
policy going back to the beginning of the recovery. the government has been in power since 2010. he does deserve credit for that consistency and sticking to his guns when people were talking about a double-dip recession. now economic growth is improving. he can take some credit but not all the credit. anna: what do you make of his comments about the level of austerity we're going to happen the next parliament if there is a conservative government? he seems to have been damaged by comparisons to the 1930's. day-to-day public spending back in 1930's levels. he seems to be trying to remove that comparison and reset that conversation, saying that austerity will end a year other year. andrew: i think the talk and the rhetoric around austerity has been a bit overblown. what we've got is a very long
prolonged period of restraint of government spending. government spending is not being cut dramatically but it is being held to the rate of inflation. how that impacts different budgets depends very much on where you sit. what he's signaled in the budget is that he wants to shift more of the burden of that onto welfare spending, onto benefits so he can sort of keep a balance between spending on these government departments and keep the totals under control. i think the fact that he's suggesting that by the end of the parliament they may be able to increase spending is perhaps a little bit -- we don't know whether that is going to come through. anna: thank you very much for joining us. andrew sentance. as we had to break, german chancellor angela merkel has been leaking in berlin.
-- has been speaking in berlin. she called the crimean referendum a tool for a russian landgrab. she has also been talking about the greek crisis. saying that if the euro fails europe fails. that all ahead of an eu leaders summit that takes place later today in brussels. 8:43 in london. up next, cementing a deal. holcim and lafarge are battling to save their merger. ♪
anna: welcome back. i'm anna edwards. this is "on the move." holcim and lafarge are battling to save their merger. it is crucial to the companies and to the company crh which is seeking to buy assets if the deal goes through. caroline hyde joins us with more. you've got more on the attempt to salvage the deal. it seems to be looking more positive. caroline: it really is coming down to the wire. we understand there are 11th hour talks. they are desperate to iron out these problems that have arisen since they agreed that deal back in april of last year. it looked like they had crossed all the t's, dotted all the i's and this was deal was going to go through. suddenly, they have difficulties. basically holcim has been
performing far better than lafarge. they want a sweeter deal. we understand that in the background, they've been agreeing to change the 1-1 share ratio to a 0.9-one share ratio. suddenly it is looking a little sweeter for holcim overall. also, leadership issues. bruno the font, the chief executive of lafarge, was meant to take the helm of the combined unit. suddenly, they weren't liking his leadership style. perhaps they didn't feel he would be able to push through the savings that they are promising their shareholders. perhaps his more abrupt tactics of smoking cigars and chewing gum aren't quite in line with the current ceo's quiet nature. now, it looks as though they are agreeing that bruno lafonyt
should become cochairman. he went take that alongside wolfgang writes all. they are still looking for a new chief executive. a new player perhaps to really lead the combined team. all of this is coming down so much to the wire. the clock is ticking for crh. anna: what are the ramik of a guidance -- what are the ramifications of this for crghh? caroline: crh is meeting to discuss signing off on the assets. to get through the regulatory hurdles, they have to sell off assets. crh wants to get its assets from chile, brazil, the philippines. it wants to expand its global empire. it wants to boost its sales 28%. this is a major deal. the ceo has been saying it is a key part of the growth and
future strategy of crh. a slight problem if lafarge and holcim aren't going ahead with the merger. then it couldn't buy the assets. it has already sold shares to the tune of 1.6 billion euros to pay for this deal. it is really putting crh between a very hard rock at the moment. it really does need to see the deal go through. not only for holcim and lafarge but for a big m&a deal in europe and helping some of those shareholders that hold not only crh but also holcim and lafarge. not to mention all those hard-working lawyers working extremely hard. anna: caroline, thank you. chicken chain mentos -- nand
o's has made a billionaire. here is devon pendleton. he helped fund the original nando's concept in south africa, but his fortune is really drive from the u.k.. guest: he actually has a residence in the u.k. nando's has company-owned stores and franchise stores. he owns the concept in the u.k. he owns all 320 stores that operate here. it has basically given him half of his fortune. anna: this is a business founded back in the 1980's. what made it so successful? devon: it is a great concept, but a very simple concept. everybody loves chicken. it has this fun vibe. it is everywhere. anybody in the u.k. knows that you can't walk on the high street without seeing a nando'
s. anna: talk about the afro portuguese theme. he has influenced a lot of the fanatics in the restaurant design. devon: he definitely has put his spin on the restaurant. he is a big art collector of south african art. he is a big patron of them. he has amassed a very big art collection, which he has decorated the restaurants with. it is one of the biggest south african collections in the world. anna: devon, thank you very much for joining us. as we had to break, let's check what is happening on the euro after the fed statement yesterday. the euro grinding lower this morning. "on the move" is back in a few minutes. ♪
anna: welcome back to "on the move." for our viewers, "the pulse" is coming up. we are joined now by guy johnson. good morning. what is coming up? guy: it is not just the pulse, is it? today is kind of a full inauguration of the show. yesterday was the budget. today, we really get into the countdown to the german elections. anna: we've got an interview with the leader of the green party. it fits in nicely.
she is talking about the limitations of the voting system. we have a somatic running through the show today. it is all about the party dynamics. this is one of the small parties. guy: you wonder whether or not we are inching towards leaving the system. i'm quite excited by that. what are we talking about? we have the director of conair on. his latest movie, he did other movies as well "conair" one of the highlights. anna: that stuck with you. guy: "tomb raider" one of the other ones. the latest film, crowd funded. in the wake of the budget, that is what the british film industry needs. anna: film financing. guy: and the fed. anna: george osborne did reference the creative industries. it seemed to the internet of
things. guy: the whole of the budget was basically a series of maneuvers from one area of the other to talk about kitchens. anna: a few jokes about the french as well. and some significant policy change. we will discuss that later on. guy will be back with "the pulse" and after that we will have the politics show. that is up at 11:00 london time. it runs for an hour and goes on until we have a government. we are not entirely sure when that will be. later on in the day, jon ferro is talking to the head of the swiss national bank. jon ferro will be sitting down with thomas jordan to talk about the fact that they've not moved on interest rates today. they want to remain active in the foreign exchange markets. the currency moving around already. we saw what happened in january when they moved away from the peg between the swiss currency
guy: don't fight the fed. a rally is amid speculation yellen isn't in a rush to raise rates. >> insiders tell bloomberg the chancellor is looking for a compromise. guy: and time is money, as they unthe latest watch. we speak to the c.e.o. in an exclusive interview. guy: good morning, everyone. we are live from bloomberg's european headquarters. i'm guy johnson. francine: i'm francine