tv On the Move Bloomberg March 23, 2015 4:00am-5:01am EDT
and a whisper from an all-time high, stoxx 600, starts 0.4% from a record high. three of the things we are watching this morning. i am excited for the market open. i know someone else, caroline hyde. caroline: just a few moments, are we complacent? that's what people are talking about. a ticking time bomb in greece is what a capita group is saying. eric nilsson calling it ended game stop. they could slip out of the eurozone into chaos if they do not make a u-turn. meanwhile, stocks opening pretty much flat. ftse pretty much flat, 0.25%. last week, we close at values that take the global equities to highs. $68.4 trillion is the value of global stock market if you're
looking at the country world index. that can buy you elites four times united states gdp. where else do you go when you have the economy flush? the u.s. backing off from immediate rate hike. japan, not to mention the rest of the countries around the world. people are going into stocks. pretty much flat and concern about what greece will do concerning its finest. king dollar up 0.1%. meanwhile europe pretty flat for you want to watch is commodities. a high on oil. trading in the united states is up. saudi arabia over the weekend record amounts of crude. all about 10 million barrels per day. you are not going to get back to $100 for oil per barrel.
you have shale back on in higher cost turning on the tap oil going down. let's check in on bonds this morning. one area with a little bit of concern is the greek 10 year. 14 basis points. going into the u.k. connerly money going the to u.s. treasuries. moving last week, foreign cost going down by 14 basis points. negative yields, i love desperate a negative yield a vortex. almost 1/3 of the euro is in negative yields overall. norway's starting to bite nigerian debt. keep an eye on all the debt markets this morning. we say it's perhaps complacency
when it comes to stop markets for jonathan: thank you, caroline hyde. the reason people are getting into equities. our guest, the ftse 100 trading down. political risk is the focus today and it always is in europe. the greek prime minister is set to me the german chancellor for the second time in five days for you this is greece getting increasingly close to running out of cash. hans nichols joins us. and our guest in the athens studio. we have to talk about this meeting in berlin. what are we expecting? hans nichols: both sides are dampening. last week, angela merkel said he will not have a solution. what mr. tsipras is saying you will have a conversation with a key european leader without the
threat and pressure of negotiations. greek papers are reporting that privatization or plans to roll back some of the privatization may be requested by mr. tsipras. all of it from the back of the meeting on friday and the friday morning and 2:00 a.m., where there's not a great deal of clarity. we know what have at the beginning. mr. tsipras asked for an immediate disbursement an outstanding money left in the bailout program. his argument is he cannot make it to the end of april without facing a severe cash crunch for separately, the financial times reporting about a letter sent before last week's meeting from mr. tsipras to mrs. merkel about how they will be unable to service their debt and make payments to last that long until the end of april. one key question people are trying to figure out -- how long does greece have to make basic payments to pay their employees?
there was a report out yesterday , a respected publication, saying april 9 is the new cut off debt -- date when the grease runs out. on both sides, particularly german, they will look for clarity and information on what the state of greece's finances are in what can be done to bridge them. jonathan? jonathan: greece, it is fair to say, has not been making many friends in germany. i would expect it to be an awkward meeting. are you expecting that? hans bank -- hans: they are rolling out the red carpet. an official state meeting. in santa barbara whether mr. tsipras brings up reparations, i would suspect if he is interested in unlocking the bailout money, his call for reparations are better leveled at domestic audiences as opposed
to a german audience. there's a report out this morning that said the greeks are not only asking the german government from reparations for what were to budge are meant of his companies off more than 100 million euros. a slight chance of opening up a slack -- second front. jonathan: hans nichols, thank you. our bureau over in greece. the question, do we have a hound on how much cash greece has left? how long can a last, a matter of days or a matter of weeks? guest: i think the next few weeks or days according to our sources, it is very demand area mr. tsipras said april 15 will be a crucial time and we have wages to be paid this week and
pensions over one billion euros on a thursday. that will be hard. nobody can pin it down the date of the cash problem because there is more volatility on the inflows. and last week, you have tax collection overdue payments. nobody could really project. really, the problem is very severe and very dyer. we cannot candidate down the exact date. -- we cannot pin down the exact date for we know april is the last time they will have money in the coffers. jonathan: a lot of talk about liquidity problems and a lot of talk about liquidity problems for the bank. we saw a report that outflows is that another problem they have to think about and fast? vassilis karamanis: that is a major problem. the greek government is accepting deposits from the
pension funds and public entities. the liquidity of the greek banking system and so basically the banking system at the moment is a float by liquidity assistance by the ecb. the ecb is reluctant to increase for the greek banks on that basis. pumped up liquidity in the forms of 300 million euros per week. if outflows continue and the greek government keeps on the deposits hard, maybe it will cross at the line. the ecb and greek banks and going into a situation where the greek banks are insolvent. jonathan: vassilis karamanis fantastic work. that is some the latest on greece. one of the comments over the weekend i hope there will be a
u-turn on policy, if not the greek economy will collapse and they will slip out of the eurozone and into chaos. that was the week in review of erik nielsen. let's get to the investor take. this is been going on for a couple of months, a couple of years and the issue is pretty simple -- reform gets of the money. do not reform, do not get money. isn't that simple? guest: i think it is. after the january rally, profits at this point and cut our risks and so what we are recommending is they do a strategy where you buy a downside before the redemption and that is the point where you cannot reach and the back and pay your pension funds and your utility companies through those kind of petty cash
accounts. that is the point where it should be a default. jonathan: the problem of greece and so far greece on long. will not the bond market and the equity. i'm pressure you are bored of talking about it. does it really matter for the rest of europe? ramin nakisa: absolutely, we think it does. that would have to be recapitalization. big amounts of money to the system by germany because it is a big stakeholder and we got to see refunding of the bailout area it would require cash. it would be a capital market impacts. and an impact on sentiment. all of the u.s. flows pouring into u.s. -- european equities and it would stop. and it would be the biggest since the beginning of january. the dax is on fire. dax versus em, that's a very good one. jonathan: to about the equities
markets in 20 minute's time. is it a sentiment as opposed to economic? is it short-term selloff? ramin nakisa: the question is what will it do to other countries like portugal? what what happened to portugal? we see the political parties respond to what happened in greece in a negative way. the second is a russia. russia has been funding la pen and the real worry is there will be a switch to political influence to russia and away from europe and not to be on our doorstep. it is something we cannot ignore. jonathan: we will dig deeper into the politics for you do not want to miss our interview with yanis varoufakis tomorrow and that will be first on bloomberg television. ramin will stay with us. the political pendulum.
back to 12,000 points per over the weekend, it was all about politics. establishment parties took the headlines. third-place well l -- while la pen's party came in second. charles penty joins us. first, to greg. the winner seems to be a throwback. mr. sarkozy. what is the significance of a win for his party? greg: sisi came at a similar retirement to take over the reins of the first big test. -- since he came out of 70 retirement to take over the reins this is first big test. the view of old all of the papers. national front it did well, 25%. a few years ago, that would send
alarm bells. the polls before this election showed the national front and net and not ahead of the unp. the fact it took the first round by several percentage points we do not have the final results yet, but about 3%, closely a big victory for sarkozy. it has to be confirmed in the second round next week. the people who did not get a majority in the first round runoff again. it looks like the unp will have a historic run and will probably control 80 of the 100 departments. jonathan: a quarter of the vote still the national front, a win for the former president sarkozy, is it a vote against president aland -- hollande? charles: yes and no.
they run a local transport -- greg: yes and no. it should've been abolished ages ago and it always been proposals to abolish and local leaders flip out. these elections never go for the party in power. it was always the left that would win every time they came up so they were always used to the way of sending the message yeah, it is unpopular. unemployment is high. no way to get around. i would not over dramatized that the social party did poorly. just of a great inside. gregory joining us over in paris. i want to take it out to charles penty. the socialist holding party but the podem partyos -- podemos
party won 16 seats. what is the significance? charles: we are seeing emerges of these protest parties. people looking for an alternative to the traditional 2-party structure. we have seen podemos coming in a strong third. and andalusia has been held by socialist for 30 years. they held on reasonably well in its debts and possibly not what some people expected. we are seeing the emergence of protest parties. that is podemos, from the less -- a left and picked up a chunk. jonathan: does it tell us
anything about the general election later this year? charles: i think it does. andalusia is different. a huge area of southern spain and a socialist stronghold. we know the kind of votes they are getting in andalusia not represented across the country as a whole. we know podemos gets high score in opinion polls for national elections and we see the emergence of other centrist parties as well. and we returned to that point with the mergers of the two new parties which are really shaking things up in spain and that is the trend everybody will be watching going into the national elections later this year. jonathan: charles penty, thank you for joining us. i want to bring back ramin nakisa. let's tell about credit risk and
the bond markets, not really seeing much for the likes of marie pen coming into power. ramin nakisa: what we are telling our clients is to reduce duration in european softened bonds. people were overweight going to to ecb buying. people saying ecb is buying a huge amount of debt and that is going to push yields down. we disagree with that. the traditional argument stands against that. and growth is improving. inflation is rising. you look at the five year in europe, inflation is increasing. we think spreads are going to widen and we also think the yields are going to rise. in that kind of environment you do not want the sovereign market. jonathan: the long end is where you would rally? as cpi bottoms out and so should yields? is it that that is more
significant or political risk? ramin nakisa: political risk for spain is much lower than for greece. the most important thing to look at its fundamentals for if growth arises that is a complete miss pricing. we would not want the long duration in that environment. jonathan: do you stay up instead of going short? erik nielsen: where -- ramin nakisa: where's the upside? client shouldn't have be short and should not be long duration. jonathan: staying with it and from stocks to bonds. is there any juice left as they had to all-time highs? we will talk about that. ♪
jonathan: good morning and welcome back. stocks a little bit softer. we are coming off the back of another stunning week for equities. their best we can almost two years. the dax on a 10 week winning streak. europe stoxx 600 a whisper away from an all-time high. check this out. the move on the stoxx 600 over the year in dollars, you get a different picture.
i want to bring back ramin nakisa. ramin nakisa: europe after these levels are looking at more expensive. you may see it increase up by 0.1%. i think all of these massive blooms we have seen are pretty much it done. jonathan: when i spoke to a strategist, she said we need fx. we need more flow because of x x stability. -- fx stability. do you agree with that? ramin nakisa: i do it we still see it. it flows into european equities. it seems to be popular, even in europe and the u.s. i think it will continue. my worry is stories about greece switching off the flow. that seems to be the case. declining over the past few weeks. the deposits in greek banks to
watch and we will see numbers at the end of the month. anecdotally, we have heard it is very big deposit outflows. i'm sure you cover that. jonathan: we have. wait for a better entry points, is that your view? erik nielsen -- ramin nakisa: that is our review. we are incredibly bullish on europe. we like a japan. within the corporate governance there is fantastic. and problems with the commodity markets typically japan outperforms and we expect that continue. jonathan: i have to say that to you, the government story in japan and weapon waiting. why are you so confident. ramin nakisa: $1 trillion fund buying into the nikkei and i'm happy. just the bank the pension fund. -- jonathan: the pension fund. ramin nakisa.
jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into your trading day. this is how the session is shaping up. the day off a losses. the dax is down. the ftse 100 dropped below 7000 points up by 0.3%. what a run we have had for european equities. some losses and. story sprint lets it gets of them with a mark barton. mark: trading over 2%. the biggest shareholder
agreement to sell to chemchina that will lead to a 7.7 billion euro for this carmaker. pirelli is valued at 7.1 billion euros and is below the share on friday. jumping to the highest level since early 2000. on thursday, emerged in papers that camfin. pirelli is up by 3%. another stop moving is bi llfinger. moving to the downside. yesterday, it announced a statement saying it is probing allegations of bribery linked to its brazilian unit. payments from the brazilian unit may have been made to unspecified public officials and employees of state companies in connection with orders. the company has carried out an
inquiry and said it has been substantiated. investigations are not completed. it is unclear to who and what amount. lvmh, 3% lower today. jpmorgan downgrading to neutral from overweight. 12 month price target has been quite of a run. 42% higher in the last 12 months. it is 6% below its highest of march of 16 when it reached the highest level since 1998. that 12 month target is higher than the 12 month target of the analysts we surveyed on bloomberg. what a run for lvmh. shares down by 3%. jonathan: thank you, mark barton. here with the top story this morning is singapore against a
week of national mourning after the death of its founding father, lee kuan yew. she held his post for 31 years and he is credited for guiding the city state from a post to win the most prosperous nations. he was 91 years old for you norway sovereign wealth making plans for the first asian real estate investment. that $870 billion wealth fund counted out 2.2% of its assets in real estate last year and is seeking to build the share and 5%. national front leader le pen casted her ballot for it was former for the president sarkozy's party that won the most. the national front took 26%. hollande's party took 6%.
and of course, another event we are focused on is a key meeting in berlin and another one in paris on a day that mr. tsipras and mrs. merkel meets. coming together and efforts capital for the gic conference with the bank offerings. manus cranny is standing by with a guest. over to you. manus: john, thank you. joining me is the chief economist at the lloyds bank corporation. great to have you with me. christian noyer is upstairs. i know you are keen to get back up there. your subject today a you will talk about growth income. you are a little bit skeptical about the longer-term prospects why? where are we in the debate? guest: i am more then skeptical i am pessimistic about long-term. one, the whole stagnation. your surfers from an aging
population and that will drag down growth. on top of that, without the legacy of the crisis. it resulted in low level of investments by governments and businesses. that is what a serious, long-term consequences. manus: when we were chatting, you said 2015 my surprise people. my counteracts would be the 60 billion euros of quantitative easing, why are you still so skeptical if that's what the ecb are doing? patrick foley: it is a bit of a red herring. if you believe it will have an impact, it may have an impact on companies and help the economy. i do not think it was any other besides confidence. what will drive eurozone growth in 2015 is one less fiscal restraint. will see really severe fiscal
restraint and that is getting cut back. secondly, the week in your role will help a week oil prices -- weak euro and weak oil prices will help. a one off the benefit. manus: there is a debate about parity and jpmorgan saying, the dollar has gone to the upside. is the euro the big driver in terms of return to growth? there is export oriented within the eurozone. patrick foley: the fall in the euro will not have a lot, maybe 2% or 3%. i wonder if it will remain weekend and the long run it. market a view will change it was he a stronger euro. that isn't the right place for the euro in the long run. manus: we have the long going
between merkel in mr. surfers today. tsipras, still kill time in terms of making the debt payments. how much protection is there in europe to grexit is they stumble? what is your best case scenario with greece? patrick foley: the prospects are high. the euro is strong enough to withstand the impact. it would have much more confident impact then maybe a couple of years ago. therefore, in my view, the perfect countries to jump the way they did before. mario draghi is and the back row saying i will do whatever it takes to keep bond yields down in the country. manus: let's talk about the u.k.. very international debt.
our economic growth to a certain extent and currency in the united kingdom with what happens here and from places like france. where is sterling? a story about people paying more for protection sterling. where is our relationship in terms of currency? patrick foley: in terms of volatility, we are going into the most un-promised election since the war. no clear idea who is going to be in government. there will be uncertainty and that is driving people looking for protection in sterling. in terms of the u.k.'s relationship with europe your account for 50% of our trade. it has quite a bit impact. the surprising thing is that in u.k. trade is not really changed
that much. no matter what the level of sterling is pretty what it suggests is exporters are taking the profit margins rather than the volume. i would not the fall of the euro would have much impact on the u.k.'s volumes. manus: would we talk about the political risk going into the election, the least worst outcome for you? it would be a quick formation of a coalition? patrick foley: the opinion polls today suggest it will be some sort of coalition. no one party is going to roll on their own. the quicker we get a coalition formed that looks stable and able to survive the better in terms of financial markets. manus: oil is the main trending
story on a daily basis. i had a conversation with michael drury earlier in the said where at the point where he could see oil down to $45. and we could see a further aggressive a move. i am not asking about the level what was i want to understand is what momentum can that deliver to the u.k. to europe? the u.s. has had a much bigger impact. where does oil play into the u.k.? patrick foley: oil i think well quite a bit impact. look at today's level, that's probably half of gdp growth. it has a big impact for you where it goes from here, i am not an oil expert. [indiscernible] [laughter]
and if you take the futures market, oil will recover gradually from this level and that is the view we tended to use. manus: a lot of coverage was given to andy last week and inflation continues at the current level or goes to zero or negative and there might be a need in the u.k. that is duff kind of talk, isn't it? patrick foley: the bank of england is making clear there are risks on both sides of the interest rates. they will fall. the bank of england and every other forecaster i know expect a drop of inflation to be below zero so you do not react what today's inflation but where it will go in the next two or three years. over their framework, it will go down to 2% and that seems
higher. the bank of england with a similar view. manus: you would join the group very briefly in terms of rate hike later this year and the next year? patrick foley: later this year. manus: patrick, we will go back upstairs. thank you for joining us. chief economist. back to you guys. up next, wells fargo chief economist and then we get into the central-bank and we have loretta master, the president of the cleveland fed. back to you. jonathan: if you were wondering, manus cranny is not on holiday. we are 10 minutes into the session. let's check out the stock exchange. it is positive. up by 0.9%. the three year note up by 40 basis points.
jonathan: welcome back. this is "on the move.” time to talk about takeovers. her really could be taken -- per rally could be taken private -- pirelli could be taken private with chemchina. it sounds complicated. caroline: it is a relatively complicated. a key takeaway here is 70 billion euros, 15 euros per share and the number one current shareholder selling out 26% holding. it values pirelli at 7 billion euros. chemchina is a company that wants to take the 26% stake off the hands of camfin.
it is the us italian owner, the biggest shareholder at the moment who is also of course the man behind it is the chief executive and chairman current marco. he is the man behind ca and is selling the 20%mfin stake to chemchina. they would then go for the rest and make a tender offer for the rest of the company. camchemchina, state held chinese company, will take at least 15.1% of pirelli.the rest might all go to camfin. there will be 2 holders then they take the company private. it could go public in four
years. it will go private initially. let's look at what is in it for pirelli. why would they want chemchina why would they want a chinese owner? it is all about scale. skim china has a list ties. this could be achieved with pirelli. subtly you are doubling though volume of truck tires. what does it do? help against their competition. homegrown condition, inc. of michelin -- think of michelin and continental and that they beating themselves up pirelli at eight to asia. pirelli-- beating themselves up to get to asia. pirelli would have that base. suddenly, italy is buying up asian assets this. they have not done so. we could see pirelli, it will be the biggest deal ever for a
chinese company trying to an italian company. last year three .5 billion -- three point $5 billion worth of assets, not that much, this could be in its entirety, get pirelli double the amount over the expanse of the whole year. suddenly, assets right for the picking. pirelli is a change in their history. subtly, we are seeing it going private taken off the public markets. it is likely the current chief executive and ceo, marco, the man behind it was a russian stakeholder with an investment vehicle. he will remain chief executive of the overall company. a complex deal but at the takeaway is a big chinese player getting to pirelli and taking a
private a giving us go. jonathan: caroline hyde, great worker as we head into the break. the dax put together 10 weeks of gains and this morning, it looks like it is set for a day of losses. down by almost 1%. the ftse 100 the all-time high we hit on friday and down by 0.3%. a remarkable rally. a bit of a breather. we'll talk about what is ahead in two minutes. ♪
jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move i am jonathan ferro..” bloomberg the first words up next and a pulse -- and the pulse is next. we have seen markets. greece and their eyes say crunch time -- and a dare i say -- crunch time. guy: the meeting with angela merkel and alexis tsipras is merkel looking tsipras in the eye in asking is this a guy i can do business with? she is under pressure from her party to be hard on him. and i think she will. it is a crunch meeting. it is less about negotiations and more about the tone and sentiment. if she decides this ain't gone to happen, it it is not going to
happen. jonathan: the people you talk to, do they feel like it will happen? guy: the since is it is looking more and more difficult to see how a deal can be done and to see how greece can maintain its current political stance with his economic stance for an extended. that would be my sense. the ecb is going to pay a -- play a pivotal role. there could be a vote on whether or not to legislate the greek banks cannot take anymore t-bills. christian noyer is coming all later talking to manus. i would love to get his take on that. jonathan: we have manus cranny. manus, a big day for you and what does mr. noyer have to say
about greece? manus: guy is correct. it seems like it is almost tsipras make or break between merkel and tsipras. to get christian noyer's view on how would you feel extend greater latitude to greece? that interview at 10:40 a.m. london time. we will see you whether mr. christian noyer shares the e bullience of mr. draghi? what about negative yield rates? those are some of the subjects we will christian noyer cover with and he is the host of the gic conference going on today. what a great line earlier, negative rates, we have barely begun to get off of the races. that is one of the sound fathers
of the gic or not to be outdone post-fomc, we have ms. master. loretta master, the cleveland fed president and she tells about normalization. she is upstairs and discussing key pieces at the gic conference. talk to ms. master about her view from the cleveland said and where we are -- cleveland fe and where we are. djonathan: the political scenario. spain, the national front. guy: that will be rating on alarm bells and may be mean you push rates. you do not want to give them latitude or a wi if you do, you given, podemos win. jonathan: fascinating morning. manus cranny bringing key