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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  March 23, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EDT

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particularly in germany this morning. the prime minister of singapore has died. good morning. this is bloomberg "surveillance." we are live from new york. i'm tom keene, joining me is brendan greeley and olivia sterns. olivia: ted cruz is running for president. he has become the first republican candidate to officially throw his hat in the race. he announced just after midnight on twitter. he will launch his campaign in a few hours at liberty university in virginia. he is the canadian born son of cuban immigrants. he was backed by the tea party. he has been an outspoken critic of obamacare. he spoke against it on the senate floor. singapore is mourning the death
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of the man who turned the country around. he was the first elected prime minister and served for 31 years. he is grieved beyond words. we won't see another man like him. he was singapore. olivia: this could be another make or break week for the greek prime minister. he is meeting with angela merkel. without those measures, european lenders are unlikely to give greece the cash it needs to stay a float. brendan: the price of oil is falling again. futures fell 1%.
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west texas intermediate is trading below $46 a gallon. the oil glut will get bigger. in the health care industry tenet healthcare is close to buy united surgical partners. they operate 200 short state surgical facilities. we started with 68 teams and now we are down to sweep the team. a pair of number two seeds lost yesterday. wichita state beat kansas. let's all admit it. michigan state be virginia. next up for the spartans oklahoma. those are your top headlines. tom: i love how cbs doesn't it. it's endless basketball.
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brendan: what else do you want? tom: arizona was gigantic. brendan: i know nothing about college basketball. i had kansas going all the way. tom: why aren't they paid? brendan: how many blocks you want to rip up so we can talk about that? olivia: president obama says he doesn't think athletes should be paid. brendan: that's ridiculous. olivia: tom keene is in the top five on the bloomberg bracket. tom: we still need an adjustment and see where we are. shot of tequila, i'll take that when. enough on basketball. commodities are the backdrop. stanley fischer is speaking at the economic club of new york today. the economic world will hang on
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each and every word. the euro is stronger. on to the next screen, it's a complacent data check. the vix. the east german from east german yields. these are the leaders of greece and germany this morning. this is singapore. the collapse of the british empire the separation is over here and then up we go. this is a different vector. it slowed down a little bit. brendan: i see this more simply. all you see is unstoppable growth. that is the success story that singapore has provided for the rest of the world. what do other countries see when they look at this? they see what they want to see.
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tom: what's amazing here, they were more harmed by the latest financial crisis than they were by the asian crisis in the 90's. i did not know that. there is scope and scale on singapore. for an honorable purpose he was the founding father of singapore . he is dead this weekend at 91. he constructed the first city state out of the ashes of the british empire. jonathan fendi is the on the qualified. he is the author of the history of modern china. will china dominate the 21st century? you were to be with us anyway. we are greatly appreciative for your wisdom. tell us about this relationship
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between singapore and indonesia. guest: singapore has been such a success. we forget how small it is. i'm ever been with the defense minister of singapore. we were talking about the defense budget. he said you wonder why we spend more per capita than any other state in the world on defense. look out there. there's malaysia and indonesia. tom: there is a scene in "empire of the sun" and the japanese are coming down. translate that fear of another lifetime when he was 20. he was in singapore for the japanese occupation. translate the tension and the fears the people of singapore have. guest: it's the whole of east asia.
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we underestimate the volatility of east asia. taiwan may boil up again next year. you've got a lot of confrontations around the south china sea. what he did brilliantly was ensure unity at home. everybody spoke english and that was a great binding force. he was pretty authoritarian. there were elections. brendan: let's look at economics. what did he get right for those decades in singapore? guest: running a small open economy. it's very important. i was editing a newspaper in hong kong at the time. the businessman said if china
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tried to impose law in hong kong , they would move business to singapore. olivia: you knew him personally. what did he say about china? guest: he would say we have to work with china, though china did some fast deals. we've got to keep on good terms with them, but we need america just as much. to balance china and in us. tom: what can china learn from singapore? guest: i would say the rule of law. you're not going to have that in china. the chinese love singapore and they go there all the time. they study it. china's got 1.3 billion people. olivia: what are the lessons and
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governance? guest: to have independent governance, both government and in corporate affairs. china is a different state. it is a common as party state. tom: kathy would is joining us from arc investment management. what is the distinction that you see in technology investment right now? we have not had a hysterical ipo at the nasdaq in ages. guest: what we are seeing are for general-purpose technology platforms and normally, only one is evolving and disrupting. the cloud is one of them. dna sequencing is another. robotics is another and energy
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storage is another. these are battery technologies. you can make a lot of money. tom: i do see how you make money in these. guest: people don't understand how profaned -- profound these changes are. they don't have the right dna to take the capital. tom: can ibm get the cloud right? guest: for years, they focused on return on invested capital and did not invest as they should have in the cloud. now they are trying to catch up. tom: did you read the black books cover to cover? were they cool? guest: they are still cool. i used to start by looking at the charts and let that lead me. tom: nobody knows that she had a day job. olivia: i'm pretty sure
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everybody knew she had a day job. tom: she was a security analyst. olivia: and she was ceo. as we head into the break, our twitter question of the day, can ted cruz when the republican nomination? we are streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com. good morning and happy monday. ♪
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tom: get out the champagne. my bracket is just awesome. brendan: ted cruz is throwing his hat in the ring. he was the first candidate to enter the residential race. he made his announcement on twitter.
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he will launch his campaign a few hours from now at liberty university. singapore is mourning the death of its first elected prime minister. he was 91 years old. you and officials say yemen is at the brink of civil war. rebels just sees the third largest city. they control the capital. all u.s. personnel are evacuated. personal information of 100 service members was posted on line. u.s. officials are notifying those named. china's biggest chemical company is taking a stake in pirelli. they will buy more shares. taylor swift is trying to stay ahead of internet trolls.
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she is buying some x-rated domain names. i can't believe i just had to say that out loud. tom: my deepest sympathies. can we shift to the good of the sold-out madison square garden. some people actually went. brendan: which of you wants to talk about area on a grand day? tom: let's look forward to the next hours here it olivia: coming up we have a new rival to the world bank. where in the world are people happiest? we're looking forward to going inside "mad men."
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ted cruz is running for president. he made the announcement last night. >> it's going to take the new generation of courageous conservatives to make america great again. i am ready to stand with you. olivia: it looks like a movie trailer. he will make his first stump speech from liberty university in virginia. he will be the first contender to declare his candidacy. peter cook joins us from washington dc. he is going first. in the course rates among republicans, this is a race to be number two, isn't it? guest: it's a race for the conservative core of the party. he is trying to get out there first to get that national spotlight before the others jump in. it helped him raise money before
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others get the opportunity to tap the grassroots. he is trying to run to be the conservative candidate in this field. he will not be the establishment candidate. he is sending a message to some of the other candidates. olivia: he is wildly popular with evangelicals, can he raise money? guest: that's an open question right now. one of the reasons he is at liberty university is to try to tap into cultural conservatives. he wants to say i and your candidate, let's raise money. he has been successful at that. he has not been able to prove doing it on a national scale in the way that president obama did. that is one of the big challenges and one of the ", if he is as much of a fundraiser. brendan: i'm going to read you a
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quote from bob vander plat. he is a prominent conservative and i will. 75% of iowans did not want romney to be the nominee. that says a lot about the republican party. do you agree with that logic? guest: you've got to remember in places like iowa, ted cruz will be much more of a player than he will be in other parts of the country. watch him it's time he spends and i what first the rest the country. if he does one or two or three he is out of the running. this is an opportunity to play to those christian conservatives in iowa and see if he can sustain something beyond iowa. this is someone who has been underestimated before. he is a threat to republican candidates. olivia: thank you so much.
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do stay with us for that speech. this will be starting at 7:40 a.m. eastern time. this brings us to our twitter question. can he win the republican nomination? tweet us. it we are streaming on your tablet, phone, and at bloomberg.com. ♪
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tom: good morning everyone. bloomberg "surveillance." we have somebody who has thought about technology for years and this is the morning must-read technology article.
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the idea of the distribution of income for this creative class takes the form of a power law with a small number of winners capturing most of the rewards and a long tail consisting of the rest of the participants. this goes back to credit suisse and very few people win in technology. how do you invest? guest: i don't agree with that, first of all. think about the cell phone and what that has done for emerging markets. that has benefited a long tail of people. they would probably still be trying to do old telephones. tom: from an investment standpoint? guest: from a stock point of view, what we are seeing is those with the vision and the
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right business partners in these new technologies they tend to take the lion's share of the market just like microsoft and intel did. facebook, twitter. tom: i've got to talk to about the new disease, a new technology comes out and they extrapolate a value into the future. interest is the latest. guest: a lot of asset managers are getting into the pre-ipo space read it's getting very crowded. when stocks go public, they tend to go down. investors we try to figure out and see were they're going to bottom out. we are not going to go whole holiday in the beginning. that part of the market is crowded. brendan: you are so good at
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describing about technology companies. how'd you identify those larger industries? guest: we are seeing a lot of convergence in the world. the industrial companies that are releasing the big winners are focused on robotics or energy storage. these are two general-purpose technology platforms. you've got focus on machine vision systems. you've got intuitive surgical. it's industrial companies that are touching other sectors. you've got japan and robotics. we think robotics is going to go from $11 billion to $180 billion in the next 10 years. that is a 32% annual growth rate.
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olivia: they have such wild valuations. one of the most important metrics? guest: we try to size the ultimate value. how big is this opportunity and who is going to get the unit economics? we think three planting could be a $500 billion business. tom: let's come back with kathy would. from new york, it's bloomberg "surveillance." good morning. ♪
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101tom: good morning. it futures are negative five. this is bloomberg "surveillance." olivia: ted cruz is tweeting his way into the presidential race. just after midnight, he tweeted that he is running for president and links to his video. he will make a formal announcement at liberty university. he is the first republican to throw his hat into the race. he is in his first term in the senate and is a favorite of tea party accidents and -- activists.
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singapore was turned into an economic powerhouse. he died at the age of 91. he was the first elected prime minister and served for 31 years. his elder son is now the prime minister. this week may determine the future of greece in the euro area. the greek prime minister will meet with angela merkel for the second time in five days. greece is running out of cash rapidly and they need european leaders to unlock money. they are unlikely to do sort until greece spells out what reforms they will take. brendan: john kerry is saying that negotiators have not reached the finish line on iran. it is achievable. talks resume this week. in an interview with the huffington post, president obama said there was a major sticking point. >> what is going to have an
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impact is iran, are they prepared to show the world that it is not developing a nuclear weapon and can we verify that in a consistent way. brendan: iran once sanctions ended immediately and not over a. of years. the fate of radioshack will be decided today. they obtained up with sprint. standard general is headed against companies that want to liquidate the company. when the pitfalls of being the pope, pope francis says all he would like to do is go to a pizza without being recognized. he has to be happy with what occurred in naples. he handed the pope a pizza.
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no word yet on if he actually took a bite. those are your top headlines. i love that guy. tom: the 70 come out with chili dogs? -- when the president is jogging down the street, does someone bring it chili dogs? this is a pleasure. they are in search of a new china with chinese characteristics. it's time to reassess where china is. you can do no better. it is a 126 page jewel by jonathan fenby. just the reading in the back is worth buying the book.
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you talk about the china dream. that is the struggle. what is the china dream? guest: it was set up by the leader of china. he is probably the most powerful leader in the world. he wants to make china not the dominant power of the world, what a great power. tom: you have an authority with the decades of experience you had. what do we get wrong about china? guest: we don't look enough at the domestic challenges and problems which are enormous. we spend all of our time doing this. you could list a or 10 challenges. tom: they take the old food and they put chemicals on it. brendan: this is what i was wondering. listening to you lay out the dream there is a lot of
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daylight between that and what chinese people want. guest: the chinese people i said what is your dream? she said for the air to be clean and the trains arrive on time. olivia: she is in the midst of this crackdown on corruption. what should we understand about the domestic opposition in china? guest: that's partly political. he is getting rid of his enemies. and the head of the campaign is not being done by the lower courts or the police. this is being done by a secret communist party committee. they want to make the economy in business more effective by getting rid of corrupt ceos. olivia: they can detain you for
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six months at a secret location without trial. guest: the head of the commission said this will go on forever. the big question is if they get rid of corrupt bosses do you have another lot of corrupt people in? tom: you come to the same conclusion america has things not to fear. guest: america has tremendous strengths. we overestimate china's appeal. just take the most simple political soft power element. i have seen a lot of people demonstrating for western-style democracy. i've never seen anybody doing that in china. brendan: i want to talk about the attempt to dominate international institutions.
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the asian infrastructure investment bank says we are wary about accommodating china. european union countries have joined this. did we make a mistake? guest: this was a bank that is set up under chinese influence. the chinese would be very awkward. olivia: why are the british on board? guest: a lot of investment. there are big developments. olivia: what is the tolerance level for dissent? guest: he has made clear that hong kong longs to china and they are allowed an element of autonomy. olivia: after all the protest we
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saw, those yellow umbrellas out in the streets, will anything change? guest: i doubt it very much. brendan: coming up, we have new data that shows were the happiest and saddest people are in europe. it is not length -- linked to the strength of the economy. that is today's single best chart. ♪
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tom: good morning everyone. bloomberg "surveillance." let's get to our single best chart. brendan: they may be experiencing negative yields but art europeans satisfied with their own lives? this stat looked at whether or not people are satisfied with their lives. they are reporting this themselves. we see a trend that is familiar. the nordics are happier. is that socialism? i don't know. the danish are 8.0.
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kathy would, is this a sign to take seriously? guest: this is not what i usually do. i am more focused on a gdp and inflation and interest rates. brendan: this is not data that plays into anything you look at? olivia: i feel of correlation with maternity leave. brendan: for me, this map is a different frame of the way we normally talk about europe. we've been praising the practical austerity of the baltics, that they are unsatisfied people. the danes are always the happiest. guest: there is a more raw city
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-- morales-- tom: people don't know they have written on france. is this real? even with sarkozy doing ok over the weekend? guest: i followed her father for a long time. she appeals to and unhappiness in france in a way mainstream politicians don't. that is not just hard right people. this is a lot of working people who are unemployed and see her. they are wrong. brendan: is this uniquely french? guest: it's happening in italy as well. they are blaming brussels for everything. tom: let's get to the happy top
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photos. olivia: our first photo is the eiffel tower through a haze of pollution. the city will cut the number of cars on the road in half starting today. public transportation will be free. this is combating a spike in pollution. you were bureau chief for the economist in paris. did you ever think the air quality would get to this? guest: no. it has gotten worse. i was in beijing last week. it was amazing the skies were blue. brendan: they referred to this as an aipac blue. this is a specific shade that only exists in china.
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guest: sometimes it goes disastrously wrong. you get snowstorms. olivia: i find that shocking. i never to photo, take a listen to a desert rain frog giving a warcry. i take full blame for this. i love a weird animal photo. tom: that is actually thomas celebrating his bracket success. olivia: devon williams of the west virginia mat near -- mountaineers hit a slamdunk against maryland. they will face the undefeated kentucky wildcats. tom: i lost that one. brendan: i had kansas going all the way.
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olivia: you are still be me in the bracket. brendan: it's time to get an update on your celebrity brackets. 36 liters from top corporations are taking part. they have pledged $10,000 apiece. in first place is john donohoe. bruce richards is third. i do not have $10,000 to spare and i have a 48 point olivia: tom keene is in fourth place. tom: i'm doing ok. there needs to be some adjustments. brendan: coming up,
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>> i am a reader of picketing. he is a great writer. brendan: highlights of my interview with mad men creator matt weiner.
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tom: futures are at negative four. let's get to the top headlines. olivia: ted cruz is running for president. he is the first major candidate to enter the race. he made his announcement after midnight this morning on twitter. he will latch -- launches campaign at liberty university. singapore is mourning the death of its first elected prime minister. he saved -- served 31 years. he was 91 years old. fbi profiler's have joint investigation of a black man found hanged in mississippi. they are from the behavioral analysis unit. the body was tied to a tree. i taught see expected soon. the bodies of seven new york
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siblings are being sent to israel for burial. they died in a brooklyn house fire. the fire was sparked by a hot plate. an attack on a walmart worker led to a brawl in arizona. assessment was fatally shot while trying to wrap an officer's gun. seven suspects are in custody. starbucks is ending its race relations campaign days after it was lost. critics said it exploited recent cases a black man killed and confrontations with police. those are your top headlines. howard schultz was saying there was no deliberate marketing effort, he wanted to use
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starbucks footprint to proper larger conversation that should be taking place about race. brendan: i can't understand who thought that was a good idea. it seems like a poorly prepped idea. olivia: if you don't want to have that conversation, you will no longer see it on your coffee cup. coming up, we look at lessons learned. how to attain market risks are in we have shown in between greece and germany. brendan: matthew weiner does not think about any quality the way we do on bloomberg "surveillance." he has been the show runner on mad men since 1999. the show begins its last season april 5.
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he talked about how success in america is a white anglo-saxon rosengren >> it was the ultimate aspiration. it to become a white wasp male. that is the ideal american. that is the currency of power and success in the united states. brendan: you think that's true now? >> i guarantee it. i see it when i see rap stars dressed in ralph laurent. it's the accrued vermont of the wasp heritage. whether it's works brothers -- brooks brothers or newport. it has the sheen of success and power. i think we have a socially mobile culture still.
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a team leading wealth can put you at the top of power, no matter what your background is. brendan: that resentment in the show between guys who went to ivy league colleges and the ones who did not, you think that's still there in america? >> absolutely. it's only turned back in time to the way it was. there is still a secret handshake. brendan: paul sweeney is here with us. he is our director of research and a huge fan of the show. when i listen to matt weiner talked about that world i have a hard time figuring if he's talking about them or it today. is that why the show resonates? guest: it resonates from the time of the 60's.
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i think it's less relevant today. i took issue with some of his comments in that piece. when you think about the madmen days it was madison avenue and wall street. somebody could make their mark. this is a global economy and a global market place and people are creating value and wealth all over the place. you look at silicon valley. tom: i take massive issues with what he said. peggy olson in season one or season two is in brooklyn and she is in the catholic community. guest:brendan: the way the show is constructed, a man who lived in deep poverty makes himself into a lost. -- wasp.
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this is a direct reference to john cheever. when you look at the madison avenue of the 1960's, the uc any wall street and that? guest: i don't. i think we are in the front offices of wall street. there has been a 20% drop in the number of people employed. the pressure is on wall street. the performance pressures are such that they are causing bad behavior. there is a lot of benchmark sensitivity. we are trying to invest in the future. olivia: this sounds like the bonfire of the vanities where everybody wants to be captain of the universe. rap stars don't dress up like wasps anymore. brendan: jay-z wears really nice suits. the madmen fun continues
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tonight. tom: thank you to all of you. stirling is 149. ♪
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>> this is bloomberg "surveillance."
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tom: greece may run out of cash by the end of april. tsipras meets with merkel in berlin. stock markets higher, yields to send in germany. a passing of a giant singapore 's lee kuan yew. lessons from a city state. olivia sterns and brendan greeley. olivia: ted cruz became the first candidate to enter the race for president. announcing on twitter he is running. he also linked to a video. ted cruz: time for truth time to rise to the challenge as americans have always done. i believe in america i believe we can stand up and restore our promise.
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olivia: that is not a sony promotion, it is a campaign launch. cruz will formally launch at liberty university in lynchburg virginia. he has been a very outspoken in his opposition to obamacare. he wants spoke on the senate floor against it for 24 hours. he turned singapore into one of asia s most prosperous countries. mourning the death of lee kuan yew. singapore's first elected prime minister served for 31 years. his son has been prime minister since 1994. >> we won't see another man like him. to many singaporeans and others too, lee kuan yew was singapore. olivia: critics accused lee of being authoritarian. he imposed fines for
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misdemeanors and the death penalty for serious crimes. a make or break week for greece 's prime minister alexis tsipras . meeting with angela merkel. merkel has been present tsipras to spell out what economic measures greece will make it without those, lenders are unlikely to give greece cash to stay afloat. brendan: the price of oil falling erasing last week plus gains. west texas intermediate trading under $46 a barrel. the oil glut likely to get bigger. saudi arabia pumping crude at close to a record pace come almost 10 million euros a day. -- 10 million barrels a day. tenet healthcare close to buying united surgical partners. united surgical operates 200 facilities. the upsets have not stopped. down to the sweet 16 hit a pair of number two seed flask, wichita state beat kansas.
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not what your bracket looked like. the first meeting between the schools in 20 years. michigan state beat virginia. next up for the spartans oklahoma in the semifinal. oklahoma still alive, olivia. olivia: still pulling for the sooners. wichita what an upset. brendan: three-pointers. every member of the starting five went into double digits. tom: you are a font of basketball wisdom. brendan: ever since i read about it. tom: data check. quiet but deceptive. yields lower, particularly in germany. the german 10 year coming down to the .17 level. a positive statistic. oil churns the euro churns. this hour we are joined by ian
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bremmer of the eurasia group. he will publish a new book inmate -- inmate -- in may. dr. bremmer on the passing of a giant in singapore. larry burrows, the great photographer killed and laos has a photograph of lee kuan yew ages ago. young and vibrant. we forget what he did in 1965 when they split from malaysia. what did he do? ian: this is a country that was in the third world. below malaysia on every indicator. today this on on top of the charts globally on most measures. when you talk about anything from education and quality of literacy, integration of women
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into the workplace. you name it and singapore is on top of the charts. globalization. tom: think of james c lavell's king rat. the airport, they built it out. what was the best practice? ian: the level of consensus achieved by lee kuan yew across the country, the ability to get everyone in the small city straight to -- city state to pull together for a relationship with the u.s. and china that was equally functional he did not play favorites. i think that allowed a country to grow immensely in terms of wealth and population, a magnet for international capital. brendan: best practices are more important than ideology.
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there are so many world leaders who have said i want to be the singapore of x. pulpit coming -- paul kagame has said i want rwanda to be the singapore of africa. ian: nazarbayev has said that about kazakhstan. size matters. chinese officials that you would make a fine mayor of shanghai. to achieve the level of consensus. every member of the population will a great. -- will agree. they will say this man was the father of our nation. you cannot do that with 100 million people. you cannot be that close to your society. you could do it in the time -- in bhutan.
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it's the only thing that is close. olivia: they are terribly happy. what are the lessons for xi jinping? does he see the success story there as an endorsement of authoritarian led state development? ian: singapore's more liberal in terms of openness of its financial system, the transparency of their sovereign wealth funds and state owned enterprises. none of that is true in china. socialism with chinese characteristics and capitalism with chinese characteristics actually is very different. they are going to reform economically but they are not trying to create a one billion person singapore. i do not buy that. brendan: an interesting piece in "ft," pointing out that dysfunction in washington is becoming a problem internationally for the u.s.
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over the past seven decades congress has played a supporting role in u.s. foreign policy. that era is fading. foreigners can no longer dismiss u.s. gridlock as a local as intracity. ian: lee kuan yew has been assertive and till his death, was writing a lot of articles and getting a lot of speeches. he was frail but his mind was not. one of the things he was concerned about in his last few years was u.s. governance. he was concerned about the role the u.s. was playing in the rest of the world. the lack of leadership and the impact that would have on asia. he was not surprised by the rise of china but he was concerned singapore might no longer be able to play this balancing role in the region. and was calling on the americans to make a difference so things would be easier. olivia: can i ask you about the horse race in the u.s.? you tweeted out you are not sure
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america is ready for a canadian president. ian: i'm not sure. olivia: he's not canadian. brendan: his parents were american citizens. ian: i think we are ready for a woman president. we are ready for an african-american president we are not ready for this canadian president. olivia: he's not canadian. [laughter] brendan: culturally it is awkward. he sizzles the mandate of the constitution. he did hold onto his canadian passport for a long time. in the last two or three years decided to get rid of it. ian: a lot of texans have a hedge plan. brendan: i and a citizen of the republic of texas. tom: did you say he likes hockey with a certain tone? ian: what would happen to me if i was in hockey?
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olivia: ted cruz's father was a cuban immigrant, can he win the hispanic vote? ian: he can win texas. ted does well locally. what ted is going to do, he's a very bright fellow. i've met him. having his international views on the stage in the republican debate is going to be important. olivia: we are going to continue this conversation with ian bremmer after the break. our twitter question of the day, can ted cruz win the republican nomination? tweet us. ♪
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tom: in this spring. there is no snoutw. the empire state building and the freedom tower. a smart morning must-read. olivia: all the way back to saturday. the wall street journal's essay. "why islam needs a reformation.
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" she says this process has already begun, ayaan hirsi ali, based in the u.s. and born in somalia. ian bremmer of eurasia group. wheere -- where is this moderate muslim voice? who are the muslims pushing back against extremists and do they have power? ian: if you ask me why the middle east is imploding, the economics are falling apart and the governance is poor. the u.s. is not playing the role it has historically. technology is empowering a lot of people that have disaffection. islam does not work. of those five things, which is the most likely changeable in the near-term.
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the fact that you have an address at all is islam. it is great that ayann wrote this. few people have written about this. brendan: are you comfortable with a reformation? the reformation was a long and bloody affair. olivia: and assad haas - amb assador haas says we are going to another 30 years war. ian: i am not comfortable with that imagery but leaders need to stand up. i'm not a fan of the liberalism of sisi but i liked his speech a couple months ago, we have to look at what the clerics say. when they are spewing hatred. olivia: yemen on the headlines again. how worried do we need to be? ian: i think the islamic state
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as a state is going to be weaker at the end of 2015. there will not be able to pay for the 30,000 people and the arms. the impact isis will have in creating new cells and attracting people that is going up and yemen is part of that. tom: ian bremmer, in may, his book "superpower" will be out. dean curnutt joins us from macro risk advisors. ♪
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tom: good morning. bloomberg "surveillance." monday morning from new york city. olivia: ted cruz throwing his hat in the presidential ring. the first major candidate to enter the race for 1600 pennsylvania avenue. cruz made his announcement on twitter. he will launch his campaign at liberty university in virginia. singapore morning the death of its first elected prime
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minister. lee kuan yew served 31 years and turned the state into one of asia's most prosperous countries. he was 91 years old. a you and officials said -- a u.n. official says yemen is on the brink of civil war. shiite rebels seized the third-largest city, they already control the capital. all u.s. military personnel are evacuated. the rush is on to visit cuba. a sense of urgency before mcdonald's invades havana. the company saw an increase in january. 600,000 u.s. travelers estimated to visit cuba every year. cuban officials estimate that would arise to 1.5 million if all restrictions were removed. regulators have questions for nissan. the automaker recalled almost one million cars last year due to faulty air backs. the government wants to know if bags were fixed.
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some drivers are complaining the flaw persists after multiple repairs. nissan says they have addressed the defect. taylor swift trying to stay ahead of internet trolls, buying x-rated domain names including taylorswift.porn. public figures are getting a chance to register domain names before they become public. those are your top headlines. coming up on bloomberg "surveillance," singapore loses a giant. lessons from lee kuan yew. at 7:35, germany and greece heading for a showdown, merkel meets with tsipras. we profile vladimir putin with ian bremmer. tom: the vix closing friday at 13.02. this is a miracle. amid central-bank generations, -- gyrations, negative interest
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rates and villanova losing. the stock market moves up. to steal a phrase from chairman greenspan, it is quiescent. ian bremmer looks at the correlation of the world. foreign-exchange movement, why is the stock market signaling a lack of volatility? ian: in the u.s.. there's a stability coming from capitalist -- tom: bloodmoney. -- blunt money. ian: coming out of europe. investors are forced to have risk. they are fearful of underperformance. tom: how does a math guy like you quantified the walls of worry? ian: there are a bunch of indicators. the vix at 13 is quiet. it has been lower but nowhere near the danger zone. other measures of market risk .
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c a couple examples,ds -- cds on brazil is the widest we have seen in years. that is a country at the epicenter of emerging market risk. put options on the british pound. tom: brendel, that was a freudian slip of tongue. he did not say country, he said currency. brendan: the country is a thing that supports the currency. something left out from the terminal this morning. we reported that 1.44 trillion euros in government debt is negative yield right now. is that driving this? paul: that speaks to this portions -- distortions imposed by singlee -- brendan: qc central banks
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driving the risk. a piece from the "ft" saying central banks are following trends and not driving them. >> there is the portfolio balance theory yellen subscribes to a, draghi made mention of it. saying that money has got to jump out of assets no longer a tractive and into things like stocks. olivia: aren't we supposed to be in a new normal of higher volatility? we're in an era of unprecedented and forward guidance. we're going to move into higher rates, shouldn't that trigger an increase in volatility? dean: if you study what janet yellen is doing, she's trying to take back the option now they she has given the market to be a forward guidance has been powerful. as she takes it back to give the fed flexibility -- tom: let's review. the vix would show a chart of a
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trend over the last number of months, getting us under 14. is that the market speaking to dr. yellen and vice chair fisher speaking in new york this afternoon. or is that them adjusting and changing the markets? dean: the vix is in a consolidation phase. it is not going back to town as it was last summer. we see upside in the vix. as we look at other measures of risk across the globe certainly in currencies we think the fed and the central banks sponsor currency volatility. tom: but not the stock market. dean: ultimately we see it hitting the stock market. tom: correction or bear market? dean: their markets are tough to come by we see choppy or market had. tom: dean curnutt with macro
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risk advisors on the vix. olivia: greece and germany go head-to-head. angela and alexis. can the two countries find common ground? we ask our guest. this is bloomberg surveillance, streaming on your tablet, phone and bloomberg.com. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg "surveillance. there is the nation's capitoal. we look a t the capitol, the dome getting retrofitted. a look 35 years at singapore.
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log chargt, slope matters. growth, growth a couple pullbacks. the triumph of lee kuan yew, deat at -- dead at 91. the new asia. christine lagarde is miffed about a new organization. ian: she's worried the chinese are driving architecture that will undermine u.s.-led global institutions like the imf. the asian and the structured investment bank. tom: what is that? ian: created by china to throw billions of dollars at countries to build infrastructure which is underdeveloped. it will help chinese in their backyard. americans worked hard to convince all sorts of countries
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like south korea, australia and allies not to join. they think it will have less conditionality towards liberal democracy than american institutions. they are right, of course. a week ago, the brits said they would ignore us and they are becoming a founding member. the europeans signed on, the asians are going to sign on. it is an enormous loss. in terms of grand strategy in a part of the world lee kuan yew if he were alive today, this would have been the single thing he was most concerned about. anywhere in the world. brendan: did we make a mistake. ian: absolutely. the important thing is do not draw a red lines if you cannot uphold them or they are not going to go your way. this has happened on things like syria and ukraine and on the asian infrastructure bank. now that china is large enough
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to set this up, we should become observers so we can influence the background. olivia: the british are doing this because they want to be a yuan outpost. ian: why say no? they would rather be sitting around a table that matters than not. tom: let's get to our top headlines. here's olivia sterns. olivia: ted cruz tweeted his way into the 2016 presidential race. republican senator from texas tweeted he is running for president. the tweet included a link to this video. ted cruz: a time for truth. a time to rise to the challenge as americans have always done. i believe in america and i believe we can restore our promise. olivia: that is not a movie trailer, that is the campaign announcement. the formal announcement will come later at liberty university in virginia. cruz is the first republican to
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formally declare for the race. he's a favorite of tea party activists. he's been a harsh critic of obamacare. this week may determine the future of greece in the euro area. prime minister alexis tsipras meets with angela merkel for the second time in five days. greece is running out of cash and tsipras needs european leaders to unlock money from a bailout fund. they're unlikely to do so until tsipras spells out what economic reforms greece is willing to make. brendan: talks resuming on a nuclear deal with iran. john kerry say negotiators have not reached the finish line. but he says a deal is achievable. in an interview with "the huffington post," president obama said there was a major sticking point. president obama: it is going to have an impact on whether we get a deal done. is iran prepared to prove to the world that it's not developing a nuclear weapon? can we verify that in a consistent way? brendan: part of any deal, iran
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wants the u.s. and europe to end sanctions immediately rather than over eight period of years. the u.s. balking at that. bankruptcy options might decide the fate of radioshack. standard general has teamed up and is proposing saving 700 stores. standard general is pitted against companies that want to liquidate the chain's remaining assets. a bankruptcy judge will make the decision to one of the pitfalls of being the pope. pope francis that he would like to go to a pizzeria without being recognized. since that is not going to happen, francis has to be happy with what occurred in naples. a pizza owner ran to the motorcade and handed the pope a pizza. it had the words "the pope" spilled out. no word on whether the pope took a bite. there's a your top headlines. ian: pope-aroni. tom: i was going there.
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we're on the same way. let's do a data check.. 10 year yield 1.92%. nymex crude, $45.88 per barrel. olivia: this is bloomberg "surveillance," here with tom keene and brendan greeley. brendan: another meeting, another week begins in greece's debt crisis. prime minister alexis tsipras will be received in berlin. hans nichols is in berlin. hans, can it be a crisis if it never ends? what are the stakes? hans: the stakes are even higher. the newspaper, they keep outdoing themselves. this is the front page. welcome to germany to mr. tsipras. they flipped it over and they did it in greek. it gets at a frustration.
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a populist campaign some of the press is whipping up against greece. as the talks dragged on, both populations of both countries are diverging. that could make it more challenging for politicians. brendan: angela merkel is very popular, her approval ratings are in the 70%. does she have any leeway to drag her country if she makes concessions? hans: potentially sound. there is an interview this morning from the cdu, the top parliamentarian and her party. he's a little bit, not wanting to get her so much legroom to maneuver. merkel firmly is in control of her party. you look at the number of defections on the last vote when they voted to extend it for two or three months, it was 31 against an 520 for. merkel seems to have some both
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her party and her coalition behind her. brendan: what is the actual what is the content of the disagreement? what is the measure greece needs to take that it will not take? hans: they need to implement reform measures they agree to february 20. very little action has been taken. what both sides are saying today is a get to know you meeting. they will not be going line by line. mr. tsipras has been talking about how it is nice to have a conversation without negotiations. it is not as if there is direct pressure on today's meeting. clearly we all know what is on the agenda. they may be talking about macro ways to get there instead of getting content and in our the technocrats being allowed in athens, are they being given access? it is these kinds of issues that hampered and poisoned some of the previous meetings. brendan: hans nichols in berlin.
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the crisis that never ends. always good to see what the negotiations will fail to be concluded. do you see an end? ian: no time soon. as it goes a long we have the germans becoming increasingly complacent and supportive of a greek exit. it makes it harder on merkel to make real concessions. at the end of the day there has to be some level of compromise with the greeks so syriza will be able to bring a deal home. the greeks will have to go further. the sides are far apart. we cannot lionize the greeks, we have to wait until the last moment. olivia: do we have a handle on how much cash greece has? ian: i do not. you talk to the people who are the market watchers, they believe the likelihood of capital being forced upon greece is higher than the general
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person on the street. brendan: hard to get past the weighty well was poisoned when greece brought up to the's word -- product germany's -- brought up germany's war debt. ian: the dynamic between the germans and the greeks. the lazy greeks, it turns out they are the most productive when they had jobs. the germans are seen as being the most responsible and yet they have no willingness to recognize that not every country can around the kind of surplus -- olivia: what about political contagions is podemos the next syriza? ian: podemos may be but spain is not the next greece. spain does not have the economic degradation. olivia: they are further along
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with the reforms. ian: nothing is like greece. one of the reasons germans think the greeks should go. olivia: back to u.s. politics. can w ted cruz win the nomination? ♪
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olivia: good morning. live pictures. from new york city. monday morning. it is spring even though it is about 30 degrees here. this is bloomberg "surveillance," o i am olivia sterns p on "in the loop," the founder of usa network will be joining betty liu. you are talking the strength of the u.s. dollar. betty : kay popovic has two passions. a lot of retailers reporting. being hit by the u.s. dollar, the greenback. they are still well above 50%. a have seen the crash of the greenback. that is going to be a theme when we get our earnings in the next few weeks, how much companies
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like retailers have been hit by the u.s. dollar. olivia: for retailers it is also about tourists. betty: american tourists are doing great. we are getting a 30% or 40% discount. this coming here and buying luxury goods are having a harder time. on the sports side, are you a c ord cheater? olivia: i'm a cord a-la-carter. betty: i'm getting to that point, cord cutting. 20% of those who have gotten regular television programming actually steal other people's passwords. steal it might be a strong word, they borrow. netflix, hulu, sling tv are seeing up to 20% of their business some of the users are
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using shared passwords. this is an issue we will tackle with kay, founder of usa networks. a big sports fan. online streaming is going to be the next arena. olivia: everybody is trying to figure out how they can stream the ncaa march madness. you can stream until the final four? betty: cbs, over the air, you can stream cbs for free. including the championship game. if you want the final four you have got to own a cable box because those are on tbs or turner. if you are with charlie ergen and you own sling tv you can get that for $20 a month. it just goes to show that it is extremely confusing these days to figure out how you stream online. that is something cable operators have to figure out. olivia: what does this indicate
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about the future of streaming? betty: sports might be the last frontier and the most lucrative. olivia: sports are the one holdup, the reason cord shavers are buying bundles. everybody wants espn. looking for to your interview with kay koplovitz on "in the loop." catch that interview at 8:00 a.m. this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom brendan and i will be right back. ♪
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tom: oil, $46.12. i guess the crisis is over. another crisis. here's brendan greeley. brendan: ted cruz is running for president. the texas republican senator is the first major candidate to enter the race. cruz made his announcement on twitter p he will launch his campaign a few hours from now at liberty university in virginia. singapore mourning the death of its first elected prime minister, lee kuan yew. he turned the state into one of asia's most prosperous countries. he was 91 years old. fbi profile is during the investigation of a black man found hanged in mississippi. the agents are from the
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behavioral analysis unit at the body was found tied to a tree with a bedsheet. autopsy results are expected soon. the hotties of seven new york city siblings are being sent to israel for burial. -- the bodies of seven new york city siblings are being sent to israel for burial. the fire was sparked by a hot plate left on for sabbath. refusing to issue a license bearing the confederate battle flag. eight states have issued similar plates. texas says the plates would offend those who viewed the symbol as repressive. starbucks is no longer writing "race together" on coffee cups. critics said it exploited cases of black men killed by police. the company says the cups were a catalyst for conversation. olivia: coming up at 8:00 a.m.
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we talk about ted cruz's decision to run for president. 8:10, the winners and losers of the west coast port strike. 8:20, how the strong dollar is affecting consumers. russia continues to pour heavy weapons into ukraine, according to nato's general breedlove. he said, "we see disturbing elements of air defense, command and control resupply, and equipment coming across a porous border." ian bremmer is president of eurasia group and with as onset. does anybody believe that minsk 2.0 is going to hold? ian: about as well as minsk 1.0. breedlove has been he has made statements about how many russian troops and tanks are following on ukrainian comments.
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it is not as if we do not think the russians are there. french and german military intelligence does not comport with those numbers. you cannot give the russians any space between where the americans and the europeans are. that means you have to be incredibly focused when you are making these comments. it cannot be just kiev says this. olivia: german intelligence is more conservative. ian: they are looking for reasons to back off in terms of the sanctions, which are hurting their economies. brendan: how seriously should we be taking these pinpricks from vladimir putin in other parts of europe? flights and truth exercises. -- troop exercises. ian: seriously. americans would not respond to an invasion in the baltics. they would not respond to the toiling frog you turn the water hire a he never jumps out. a few months ago, the russians
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went across the estonian border and grabbed a border guard who is now in jail in moscow. was that an invasion? no, but it was a breach of sovereignty. brendan: what is the goal of the little operations? ian: to see how much flexibility and to show power. to show the americans putin is not going to sit there in response to a policy he sees as oriented towards regime change and undermining his power. he as an individual is an incredibly powerful person and you cannot expect he is simply not going to punish the americans for their perceived -- olivia: is the relationship between the u.s. and putin irrevocably broken? ian: yes. there has been hedging in this geopolitical environment the g-zero.
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few countries have changed their orientation. russia is the one that counts. it has been bouncing between east and west. the u.s. relationship is over. their orientation as a junior partner towards the chinese is becoming more significant. that long term, it really does change the world order. tom: you are the most quoted person on the disappearance of mr. putin. in your book "g-zero," it changed the dialogue appear to what does the next g-20 meeting look like? i cannot frame it. i cannot figure out -- ian: the next security council meeting. global leadership does not work anymore. it is pre-shattered. one of the reasons why i was upbeat by obama's last meeting with xi jinping was because they started talking about the americans and the chinese on climate. not that it is a lot but it is more than what you can do globally. the transpacific partnership, more than you could do globally with the doha round of the g-20
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does not really exist other than a symbolic backdrop for leaders that do not agree on anything to get together. olivia: if was interested in saber rattling, putin would have cut off the gas to europe? ian: no his view in trying to cleave the europeans all from americans is useful. it has not, -- if you have not been for malaysia airlines flight, the germans would have left the americans. mr. tsipras recognized the annexation of crimea. i do not think greece will leave the years on, if syriza stays in power they could leave nato. brendan: does vladimir putin have a definition of success or is he having fun? ian: he's really pissed off, pardon my french. he made some solid bets that
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going into ukraine was going to be popular. he did not bet oil prices were going to go down over 50%. that has hurt him. he did not that he was going to have nemtsov gunned down outside the kremlin. i think that is the reason he was gone for 11 days. not because he ordered nemtsov's killing. if you are putin, the only thing you have going for you is people recognize you are calling the shots. if people do not, you have to do something internally. tom: oil with a little rebound. i cannot convey in the major message, a sell side that is still exceptionally cautious on oil. all of it is from oil dynamics, far less dollar dynamics. radar up on oil. brendan: greece i have to temper my own ennui.
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i can't stand continuing to report on it but it is important right now. w come -- what comes out of the meeting today will be important. olivia: ted cruz announcing he will run for the republican ticket. the freshman senator from texas will be speaking at 10:00 a.m. this morning. full coverage on bloomberg.com with mark halperin and john heilemann. he's the first to enter the race. this is a bid to be who will be number two behind jed bush. tom: is this a vanity bid? what's his support? olivia: with the evangelicals andd the tea party. tom: he's running for president with 94% of america not supporting him? brendan: i think it is a vanity bid. he believes he can win this.
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ian: the circus is beginning. we will have a dozen plus candidates. most of them have no chance of getting a nomination. and chances of improving their speaking fees and selling books and lining up for a cabinet position. thank god ted cruz wants to get that started olivia: will there be a point when he gets paid to read "green eggs and ham"? our twitter question, "no, u.s. not ready for another first-term senator as president." "he will have to win iowa. he's being seen as a symbol." third answer "no, ted cruz will entertain, no experience." tom: ian bremmer, thank you so much. ian: great to be with you. tom: looking forward to your book, have you sold the movie
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rights? leonardo dicaprio as ian bremmer. we continue across bloomberg radio. stay with us. futures flat. it's bloomberg "surveillance," good morning. ♪
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betty: a very good morning. it is monday, march 23.
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you are "in the loop." the founder of his usa network is also on the board. why she is excited about getting her march madness online. plus, he left wall street. a fund manager making a billion-dollar bet but first here's a look at the top story this morning. senator ted cruz a few hours from now will become the first major candidate in a 2015 presidential race or he lost his campaign at a christian college in virginia 30 revealed his plans on twitter. >> it will take a new generation of courageous conservatives to help make america great again. i'm ready to stand with you. to lead the fight.

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