tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg March 31, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EDT
say red lines cannot be crossed. oil, gold and the dollar signal deflation. the american housing economy searches for economy -- searches for normality. this is bloomberg "surveillance," live from new york. tuesday, march 31, the end of the quarter. olivia sterns and brendan greeley with us. let's get to our top headlines. olivia: it is deadline day in the negotiations on iran's nuclear program. john kerry staying true -- centric issues have to be resolved. negotiators worked late into the night in lausanne switzerland. iran's deputy foreign minister says it is unclear whether an agreement will be possible. >> i think it is unlikely that we reach a deal tonight. tomorrow we might reach a point of an agreement or come to the conclusion that a deal is not feasible. we hope that maybe tomorrow or
the day after tomorrow it is done. olivia: the standoff over iran's nuclear program has lasted 12 years. the u.s. and five other countries taking part in the talks and want to make sure iran cannot build a nuclear bomb. iran wants the west to lift sanctions immediately. in greece prime minister alexis tsipras trying to rally support for the ballarat talks. asking opposition lawmakers to back his strategy of putting an end to austerity. he told the greek parliament last night and he did it must -- any deal must include a restructuring of the country's debt. mr. tsipras: a new agreement must have restructuring of debt. no country when it has a debt of 180% of gdp can come to the markets. olivia: greece and its creditors are far apart.
the country has submitted a list of economic reforms. officials tell bloomberg it is not enough to make them give more money to greece. corporations based in indiana urging leaders to revise a law. they want to make sure it cannot be used to discriminate against gays. they say their employees must not feel unwelcome where they live. the speaker of the indiana house says the legislature will not clarify -- will clarify the measure. brendan: 2 of the biggest names in online fashion, italy's yoox has agreed to buy net-a-porter. the deal is an all stock transaction valued at $775 million. net-a-porter's owner richemont will have a stake in the company. jay-z is taking on the streaming music business.
tidal is an artist-own streaming service. a standard version will cost $10 a month. going against spotify and the new service apple is working on. another example of march madness, the resale market for final four tickets, average resale price for games -- almost $1900. that is a record. 25% more than the previous record a year ago. tom: i guess that is success. the definition of it. brendan: it has to do with wanting to see a perfect season. that is not something you get a seat. tom: a data chat, end of quarter. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. futures deteriorate, 10 year yield. euro-dollar, 1.07.
a weight to the commodity market. second board, please. 14.51 on the vix, a less than volatilevix. gold holding up pretty well given moves in iron ore. dollar-yen, 1.20, close to that. weight in commodities. many different blended indexes, this is the bloomberg commodity index. hthe headline is we have dipped below where we were at the lehman lows. brendan: it is good to run back as far as you can. when you get to the early 1990's this is looking closer to a reasonable measure and not just that most recent dip in be 2011. olivia: i'd be curious to see
china. tom: there we go on commodities. something to watch this morning. midnight beckons in lausanne switzerland. peter cook is in washington. gulnar is in tehran. tell me the tone of hardliners in tehran/ gulnar: in general, the hardline voices compared to the past have been more muted. we had an editorial by the editor of one of the main hardline newspapers here. he spoke out strongly saying the iranian officials in lausanne should not make any concessions that would contravene the red line set up by iran's supreme leader. that is really the only voice
where hearing here. i am large when you compare -- by and large when you compare last year, the sounds have been muted. an admittedly very important voice this morning. olivia: questions about whether or not it john kerry strikes a deal it will be approved. is it a similar situation in iran? is the foreign minister for empowered by khamenei to strike the deal? is there a chance he goes home and it is rejected. golnar: javad zarif the foreign minister has the full support of the supreme leader. that backing is crucial.
what happens when mr. zarif returns to tehran if he comes without any kind of framework i do not think that will change at all. i think that's unlikely, the red lines of the government in general are pretty much set out. the flexibility depends on what is being said in lausanne between officials and this meetings. peter: we could ask the same -- brendan: peter cook in washington, we could ask the same question of the. what is the most recent word in washington? peter: members of congress john boehner is in israel this week. the senate majority leader mitch mcconnell in israel. both expressing criticism of these negotiations and of the deal they believe is being crafted and lausanne.
this is going to be a tough sell in congress. but not impossible -- they believe if they get the framework they can sell it to enough members of congress. olivia: the standoff has gone on 12 years, the talks were delayed six months. if this does not work out in lausanne by the end of the day what happens? peter: the question remains could there be an extension. the u.s. has given every indication it wants to see the deadline honored but there could be a possibility of an extension. the other possibility is they get a framework but not every sticky issue gets resolved by midnight. they extended through the formal deadline, the end of june. they have another three months to iron out differences. tom: thank you so much. we'll join you in our next hour. bob with us the turning of the
markets and a grind towards weaker commodity prices. jp morgan's global chief investment officer for fixed income has been busy. tell me about liquidity in the markets. everybody is throwing around this work, what does liquidity mean? bob: there is so much money being printed by the central banks, even though the fed and it qe -- ended qe between the ecb and the bank of japan you have about $130 billion hitting the market every month. it is money that did not exist before, it cleans us out of bonds. it forces us to redeploy capital somewhere. tom: is your world destabilized or distorted? it is not a normal bob michele world. bob: it is wonderfully stabilized. it is common to see negative yields across europe where the
acceptance of low interest rates is widespread and most holders of european government debt or japanese government debt sell it to their central bank and then redeployed elsewhere in higher-yielding assets. brendan: something jumped out at me, poland is not a member of the eurozone. it had been financing its debt in dollars, it decided to take out a loan in euros. what is happening in the eurozone is spreading beyond as well. bob: you are seeing a lot going on in the emerging markets. countries that are issuing in dollars, they have a convertibility issue. their currencies are going down like power windows. it is a big issue so why not find yourself in a currency that ostensibly should look weaker in the coming years, certainly versus the dollar. olivia: u.s. rates, 10 year
yield still below 2% in the u.s. they started off last year at 3% . does this while of money and negative yields put a lid on u.s. rates? bob: we should think janet yellen. the fed is our friend and the bull market continues. that is our message to clients and investors. she backed away very carefully from a june tightening and i think they have set the path for something around september and maybe later, maybe 25 basis points every other meeting. that is as benign as i can remember and i have been doing this for 34 years. olivia: have you changed your forecast at all since the start of the year? bob: a little. we thought the fed would go in june. i think they should, they are telling us they are not going to. i do not think we need zero
interest rate policy. i think certainly there is the absence of inflation. whether it is disinflation in the u.s. or deflation in other parts of the world it is real. oil is the primary culprit. olivia: 2% gdp, lots to discuss with bob michele. lucky to have you as guest host. still to come, it is crunch time for greece. the prime minister took his case to parliament in a dramatic address last night. will he be able to come up with enough support to secure bailout fund the lubitzs -- the greeks need. ♪
nuclear program. deadline day. john kerry says the same issues have to be resolved if diplomats are to reach a deal by the end of the day. irans;s deputy foreign minister says it is unclear whether a deal is possible. in greece, prime minister alexis tsipras wants lawmakers to back his plan to end austerity measures. he told parliament any deal must include debt restructuring. greece and its creditors are still far apart. in virginia live pictures. police are surrounding a hospital outside washington looking for an escaped prisoner. the man is dressed as a hospital gown. he has no shoes but he does have a gun. lawyers for the accused boston marathon bomber will call witnesses today. prosecutors wrapped up the case against dzhokhar tsarnaev.
his attorneys are trying to prove he was elsewhere when the materials for the bomb were bought. he could face the death penalty if convicted. men dressed as women who drove towards the nsa headquarters made a wrong turn. officers fired at their vehicle and killed one man, they waited another. they spend the night at a nearby hotel with a companion and stole his car. former secretary of state e-mailed her staff with an ipad edition -- in addition to a blackberry. clinton claimed she used a personal e-mail so she could use a single device. tom: bob michele on the oil markets, the troubled debt. then jay z takes on spotify with usher. brendan: and kanye.
tom: taylor swift is on board. we look at indiana, the uproar over mr. pence. olivia: in a dramatic late-night address to parliament, alexis tsipras vowed to "stop the bleeding of the greek people." early word from the officials is that his list comes up short. hans nichols joins us from the heart of greece's biggest paymaster, berlin. a joint news conference later this morning. what do we know about the details and what tsipras put four. hans: $3.7 billion in new revenue, most of that is going after tax evasion. when you look at any way you are going to have to have any of the
money unlocked everyone has been clear that greece needs to follow through on the bailout program. we do not have anything specific so far so it looks like no money. brendan: an interesting detail this morning saying that european officials accused the document of lacking technocratic details. do you think this is something tsipras would have gotten right by now? hans: there are challenges on making sure the documents are proved in english. the creditors want to get more specific and the debtors want to talk in philosophic terms. that is the tension when technocrat to visit athens. according to mario draghi they
are not given the access to the books they would like so everyone can agree on a common set of numbers. then you can argue about solving for x or whatever not equation. olivia: wolfgang schaeuble is offering to send the german accountants. brendan: that is going to work out great, german tax collectors in greece. hans, i was struck that alexis tsipras went before parliament in greece and said what we need is debt restructuring. that is a walk back. hans: yes. a lot of times when he is speaking to his to mastic audience he talks about long-term debt. that is part and parcel with what syriza said. he sa heati -- he said he was promised a package in june. we just heard from donald tusk,
president of the eu parliament, he says no deal before easter. olivia: thank you so much, hans nichols. back to you enter on with updates on the meeting between hollande and merkel. tom: gideon rose of "foreign affairs" magazine. bring it back to american foreign policy on radio and television with mr. rose in our next hour. this tuesday morning, bloomberg "surveillance." the end of the quarter where did it go? ♪
coming up earlier and moving around the sky. a beautiful sunrise. brendan: it is going down later and keeping children up later. that's my dollar in the jar moment. our morning must read is from bloomberg view. our man in tokyo says "debt could derail china's ambitions." "at those levels, china would be susceptible to a search in -- a surge in long-term interest rates." bob michele, that is what you are doing all day at j.p. morgan looking at long-term interest rates. not just top line but down to local governments. do you believe those numbers? bob: i think it is pretty high. china did it part coming out of financial crisis.
there was a lot of borrowing, there was a lot of investment and property development. now they are retrenching. i think those numbers are right. brendan: no matter what they do in terms of their technocratic mastery they cannot fix long-term interest rate if debt gets out of hand. debt issue is the one issue that they are not addressing. bob: you can certainly look at japan and see countries that operate with high total debt levels to gdp and interest rates are moderate. the people's bank of china understands this. this is why they are quick with stimulative policies. they have to get the economy going and maintain growth. tom: do we buy their debt? bob: do we buy their debt? is it all internal? there's some dollar debt.
olivia: how has chinese appetite for u.s. debt changed? bob: i don't think it has changed that much. there's a lot of private wealth that has been created in china. we are talking about total debt to gdp. a lot of that money is being exported into the develop market. tom: our twitter question on iran what changes if we get a deal with iran? stay with us. ♪
olivia: countries playing beat the clock. john kerry is saying he sees a little more daylight this morning. besides are closing in on a joint declaration. steps they would have to take to solve a standoff. sergey lavrov sounded optimistic. >> i believe the prospects are very good and promising. one can never be sure with anything 100%. if no one makes the stakes too high and tries to get advantages at the last moment instead of finding equilibrium, i believe the prospects are good. olivia: the sticking point, the pace of sanction relief.
there's also the question of how to reimpose sanctions if iran violates the agreement. breaking news from virginia. live pictures. police outside washington, d.c. have closed the roads around a hospital after a prisoner escaped. police called the man armed and dangerous. in nigeria, the ruler has taken a leave in the presidential election with half of the states reporting results that muhammadu buhari has a lead over goodluck jonathan. brendan: indiana, pressure building to make changes to the new law that will lead to discrimination against gays.
the reputation is at stake and half steps will not undo the damage. leaders are willing to amend the law to make sure it does not allow discrimination. tesla state -- tesla shares rose after tesla announced -- after elon musk announced --. the company will unveil a consumer battery for homes and businesses. mcdonald's latest attempt to pull out of a sales form. they will serve breakfast all day. taco bell and starbucks have expanded their breakfast menus. tom: it is amazing and has to be a trial program. brendan: do you know how hard it is to unveil a new product at mcdonald's?
olivia: you're going to bring in the egg mcmuffin's, you have to get rid of cheeseburgers. i did a story on a burger joint. tom: did you flip burgers at mcdonald's? olivia: no, i did not. brendan: at least none of us has that. tom: robert michael is the chief investment -- bob: it is not oil at 47.48. we are keeping a watch on inventory and capacity for
storage is slowly running out. we think storage capacity will run out at the end of april. tom: do you have a price of oil where you can say they have to act? bob: we thought it should average $60 a barrel this year. we drew a $50 a barrel range to either side. we are right at the $45 lower bound and it makes it difficult for the investment that has gone into oriole -- gone into oil to service that debt burden. if you start testing, it even just for a period over the summer, it will put pressure on oil borrowers.
olivia: we thought we would see a wave of bankruptcy, but what you have seen is smaller producers going to the capital market. where is this coming from? bob: it is coming from the amount of liquidity. that money will come around. it will always be there. it will always form at these low levels. i do not think it changes the fundamental story. it is a tremendous oversupply of oil. it is one of the things we are worried about.
tom's is this is one of the ugliest charts. -- tom: this is one of the ugliest charts. 30% is a big number. bob: they would like to get off the lower bound, but when they look at the #'s of inflation they do not see it. tom: we're going to our morning must-read. janet cannot raise rates. brendan: so many companies dependent on oil, brazil dependent on commodities and it is laying their best laid plans to waste. we are going to move to rewrite the music of this.
tom: good morning. it is time for a single best chart. it is hip and cool. i am trying to think of the new cool phrase. brendan: jay-z unveiled tidal. rihanna was there, so was madonna and kanye. pimm fox asked us sure why he joined tidal. brendan: control over streaming revenue. here is what we are looking at. there has been growth. that is digital revenue for music. look at the two areas of growth.
no one wants to let go of that. look at how much bigger of the blue chunk has gone. that is subscription services. artists are deciding they want a bigger chunk of it. this makes me think back to 1919. jumping in against what was in the studio system that had been taking all of their money. tom: it is a tug-of-war. there is a lot of money involved here. olivia: the artist are sick and tired of itunes making money on the downloads. they want a slice of the subscription fees. this is why taylor swift is not on spotify. they hope if they do it themselves, they are going to get a better cut. they are also going to do exclusives. it is a higher-quality music
track. brendan: this is a way of exerting more leverage over spotify. spotify was so dominant they could set the terms. i do not think that will be the case in the future. when you listen to artist and label's talk about this, the labels want to talk about it as if they are the artists. tom: it is ancient and tangible. you see it in the litigation. olivia: are you going to pay twice what you pay through spotify? tom: if i am an artist, i am in an uproar over this. brendan: do not miss the interview with pimm fox.
let's take a look at photos. olivia: these are cool pictures. an annual joint military exercise between the u.s. and south korean troops. those are explosions from the sea. 80 aircrafts. this happened outside seoul. the exercise always creates tension with north korea. it looks like a lovely 19th-century painting. number two, cherry blossoms. these are cherry blossoms blooming in tokyo. we are in the heart of the season. it only last for a week or two at most. people come out to take pictures.
a nostalgic moment for the japanese. brendan: tom is composing a haiku on spring. olivia: the reason i wanted to talk about the cherry blossoms is because i was in japan last weekend. brendan: she sent a photo to us over e-mail as a way of saying how are you doing. olivia said i had a great time. i did a lot of eating. this was a shot glass full of live, baby eels. they were still jumping out of the glass. a bunch of the people i was with bucket like a shot. i did bring back matcha
flavored kit kat's. tom: it is not chocolate. it is green tea. what did you see there? olivia: tokyo, the whole city is lit up. they still have not totally recovered from the sunol me -- from the tsunami. the experience is different because the city is not lit up the same way. tom: david will join us and we will look at the housing market. futures, -11. we say good morning. ♪
deal. negotiators in switzerland. the path to a deal is not clear. breaking news out of virginia. a hospital near washington, d.c. is on lockdown. a prisoner overwhelmed a private security guard and escaped. the suspect is wearing a hospital gown. he has no shoes, but he does have a gun. the copilot blamed for the germanwings crash had been treated for suicidal tendencies. andreas lubitz crashed the airliner last week. he went through psychotherapy before getting his pilot's license. two former federal agents accused of stealing while they were on a drug case. they skimmed bitcoin worth more than a million dollars.
a federal grand jury wants to question people who work for a congressman. he resigned a week ago after questions were raised about his spending habits. today will be his last day in the house. connecticut back in the women's final four. they rolled to a 21 point win over dayton. connecticut trailed at halftime for the first time in two seasons. they will play maryland, which advanced with a win over tennessee. those are your top headlines. tom: coming up on "bloomberg surveillance" -- the iranian talks, we will go to tehran. we will look at john mankin and his final essay. an essay on a janet yellen that will be delaying.
david with nationwide with an optimistic tone. brendan: i am being -- to say go lady terps. i wholeheartedly agree. mike pence says the religious freedom restoration act had been grossly misconstrued. 20 states have turned to some version of the bill into law, only four have enacted nondiscrimination laws. jonathan allen is our bureau chief. help me untangle this. johnjon: i was hoping you would say something about them making the final four. the thing is we have hit a perfect storm in terms of indiana being in place while
businesses were ready to rise up against this. mike pence is known on the national level, or you have a strong religious conservative component. you are seeing the backlash. last night, ted cruz came out backing him. jeb bush, he came out and back to him. we have a political fight here. brendan: hearing what he said on tv d think he did not expect this kind of reaction? jon: i think he did not expect this kind of reaction. businesses are coming out whether it is eli lilly, anthem, angie's list we are seeing them
come out and say this is not the way we want our employees treated. in the past, it was whether or not customers were discriminated against and now you are seeing that on behalf of employees. olivia: there was an op-ed in the washington post. others are saying tim cook is confusing the issue along with the ceo of eli lilly. what is at stake for businesses? jon: it is open to interpretation, which is why you have this divide. you have opened the door to discrimination unless you come around on the other side and have a law that says you cannot discriminate on the basis of factors, including sexual orientation. some of the states that have
religious freedom laws have those on the books. that is a question for the courts and lawyers. brendan: when indiana passed this law, or legislatures -- were legislators thinking about the hobby lobby case? jon: this is an issue that has come a time and again over the last few years. companies that are not religiously affiliated but have religious founders, whether they have the ability to hire, fire, promote and create policies based on religious beliefs. we have seen it over and over again. hobby lobby is one example. olivia: the front page of the indy star, criticizing the law
in indiana. is this an election issue for 2016? jon: absolutely. we have seen several candidates coming out in support of mike pence. those that have not will have to do something at some point. it is an opportunity for democratic candidates to show where they stand. it is going to be a 2016 issue, at least in the short term. brendan: john allen, i have a feeling we are going to be spending a lot of time with you. tom: thank you. we really appreciate you.
has shrunk, the final 12 hours of a 12-year disagreement. hard-liners in tehran say red lines cannot be crossed. oil, gold, and the dollar signals inflation and disinflation, yet still the american house economy searches for normality. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. the end of the quarter, march 31. i am tom keene, joining the olivia sterns and brendan greeley. olivia: deadline day for negotiations on iran's nuclear program, and both sides are said to be closing in on a declaration detailing a step they would have to take to resolve the standoff. any agreement would probably fall short of resolving all of the issues. those will be worked out over a three-month period. russia's foreign minister sounded upbeat about the prospect. >> one can never be sure with
anything 100%, but as long as nobody makes the stakes too high or tries to benefit or give advantages at the very last moment and set of trying to find the will of ram and these talks. i believe so far the prospects are rather good. olivia: the standoff over iran's nuclear program has now lasted for 12 years post of and five other countries taking part in the talks, making sure that iran cannot build a nuclear bomb. iran, meanwhile, once the west to lift the sanctions that have crippled its economy. in the search is on for an armed reserve the state from a hospital a few hours ago. police say the man overpowered a private security guard and took his gun. the prisoner is wearing a hospital gown but no shoes. he was being held at a hospital in fairfax, virginia. in indiana, big corporations are debating the religious freedom laws. ceo's from several company say
their employees must not feel unwelcome where they live. the speaker of the house said they will verify the measure so no one will feel unfair tonight services. brendan: italy's -- has agreed to by another company. in all-stock option. net a quarter' -- net a porter's earlier conversations stalled. who do you like in this fight? jay-z and his friends against the streaming music business. jay-z has created a tidal, an artist-owned streaming service will stop it will be going up against spotify and a new service that apple's beats is working on. and final four tickets are going for record prices. people want to see whether
kentucky can wrap up an undefeated season. the average retail price for a season -- almost $1900. that is 25% more than the previous record a year ago. those are your headlines. tom: wide open. brendan: let it not go unsaid in the ladies final four, the lady terps of maryland. olivia: how about the fact that tom keene is number five in a bloomberg celebrity bracket? tom: that is a miracle. trust me, it is. my vast knowledge of the data check, we are going to rip up the script. it is a very simple data check futures -13, greece yields widen out. this has been waiting for four days or five days, 26 basis points on greece versus germany. that is a litmus paper for some of the changes in athens this morning. we need to move to switzerland, to iran, midnight beckons in switzerland. is that deadline now movable
? our peter cook is in washington, another correspondent in tehran. secretary kerry races to midnight. peter: it has always been movable in a sense that this is a preliminary self-imposed deadline for a framework agreement. the final details always faced a deadline at the end of june, so there has always been a second target out there and i think what is emerging right now, according to officials that we are talking to involved with this negotiation, is that they are heading toward this declaration today. they hope by this midnight deadline, yet not all the odds will -- i's will be dotted, all the t's crossed, and they will have a three-month window. is that enough to satisfy members of congress? certainly not all of them, but it may be enough to buy the administration more time. e.m.brendan: you have been so good
at explain to us about the hardliners in iran. i am curious about what people say in shops, on buses. the people talk about this deal? >> it is interesting because it is supposed to be a holiday, but some of the gatherings i have been to over this past week, in the background, the conversations are often about the nuclear talks, and there is a real -- it is a combination of fatigue, a kind of tiredness with how the thought that been-- -- talks have been continuing they are optimistic but cautious, and they have their eye more on the july 1 deadline. they know the difference between th the negotiation is trying to trying to -- they know the difference between what the negotiation is trying to achieve . they are optimistic, but if nothing comes up today, i do not think they will be shocked at
the same time. olivia: golnar the question the u.s. is if john kerry does come home with a deal, whether or not it will be approved in congress. what is the situation like in iran? is the administration fully empowered to strengthen the nuclear program, or is there a chance he can strike a deal and come home and have it rejected by the iranian parliament? golnar: it is difficult to answer that question without knowing exactly what, you know what the outcome will be today. for now we know that the supreme leader has fully endorsed these talks and these negotiations. he is backing president rouhani and he reiterated that support at his new year's speech about 10 days ago, so they have the confidence of the most important power in the country and for now, i think that is the most important thing in terms of domestic politics as far as that is concerned.
we will not know what the reaction will be here in tehran until we know what the outcome of today's talks are. brendan: peter cook let me throw the same question to you. we just talked about the streets into a wrongful stop let's talk about the american street. there's an abc news/"washington post" poll talking about a 50%-backed iran nuclear deal. are they out ahead of congress on this? peter: they are ahead of congress on this. it may be the best news for the congress today as the president continues having to sell this to not only skeptical members of congress but skeptical foreign capitals as well, israel just one of the countries where this will be big for the president. the fact that the american public is behind this is a big deal to the white house, and if you will, some indication that they believe that their policy here has been the right policy. tom: peter cook, thank you so much in washington. golnar: motevalli in tehran this
morning. on one hand is iran in our ally in iraq, gideon rose is the head of "foreign affairs" magazine david person with us on housing with nationwide as well. gideon, i cannot fathom how interesting it is at the council of foreign relations. gideon: we were interested in this letter from the 47 iranians to a obama reminding them of the supreme leader is supreme, and whatever he does, his accessor could abdicate the deal if he chooses to. tom: cut me in here in any moment. how does this end up. with the best thinkers you have at cfr, at "foreign affairs." gideon: nobody knows. there is the actual question of what is going on in general and what is going on with iran and the nuclear program, and then there is the american polarized political discussion over what is going on in the middle east. the latter is unserious, and
crazy, and be stuff going on the middle east is fascinating because the whole region is in flux in a way it has not been in generations. it is fun to watch. olivia: how is everything going on in the ground affecting these talks? we are on a same side in iraq, not syria. gideon: this is what is happening. with the arab spring topping up some regimes with the right to implement them, with iraq under saddam having been knocked out, the old arab sunni authoritarian order has been discombobulated and it is kind of on the way out. that is the context on which the united states is kind of partnering with iran a little bit and many of the remaining sunni authoritarians in saudi arabia and egypt, and with their israeli l.a. now, who likes order, are trying to push back against that -- their israeli ally now, who likes order come are trying to push
back against that. it is sort of like an "games of thrones" thing. it is not clear that we can dictate this, and in many respects thanks to the changed energy environment, thanks to the change broader political environment, it may be that we do not need to get into some of the details. it is not entirely clear that we know what to do in yemen, that we really care what goes on in yemen, or that we have a particular answer to it. if 10 different nations are having troops and six different tribes -- it may not be our fight to get into. tom: gideon rose to make us smarter in this hour on america's unique foreign policy. we need your help as well. our question of the day -- what changes if we get a deal in iran? stay with us. it is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene with olivia sterns and brendan greeley. john makin died yesterday of the american enterprise institute, at a tragic 71 years old. pity the fed. you should pity the federal reserve, the timing of expected fed tightening will keep slipping, probably into 2016, especially as the fed faces reality and abandons the 3% growth forecast will stop the fight -- forecast.
the final writings of john makin. makin was the best i knew, the chicago school of facts, but speaking the -- he was the conservative that liberals respected, and he nailed the 2008 crisis more than anybody else. gideon: absolutely. he was the best person to be able to talk about the chicago school. always very clear and fair whether you agree with him or not. tom: liberals adored him even though they did not agree with him. gideon: again, it was -- david: it was clear economics straight economics. tom: it was just not working out for june, obviously. is it possible it can get to 2016? david: it is possible. i disagree there. a lot of weakness in the first quarter is weather-related, as it was last year. tom: gideon rose, this buttresses up against the new
mediocre, as lagarde calls it. yellen has to deal with everybody else out there as well. gideon: and he said that he the fed -- pity the fed, the people in my era envy the fed. it is a tough challenge, but at least they can do it on their own. tom: you see it, brendan, you talk about brazil as one example, they used to be 5% gdp. where is it? 2%? brendan: it got sucked into the commodity super cycle. it is further proof -- you look at venezuela, you look a nigeria, you look at russia -- you cannot depend on just one resource. you have got to diversify. tom: olivia, was tokyo bustling when you were there? olivia: they have a 3% hike in the consumption tax, which knocked the country back into recession. they have been dealing with
deflation for 15, 20 years. there is a sense that life goes on. they're getting excited for the olympics. david: with unemployment going down below 5% this year -- tom: down 5%? david: by the end of the year absolutely. tom: let's take another look at outward or question this morning, @bsurveillance. what changes if we get a deal in iran? stay with us. it is "bloomberg surveillance." futures -13. ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to our top headlines with olivia sterns. olivia: officials familiar with the run talk to say they of -- with the iran talks say they are nearing a deal. they have until june 30 to finalize an agreement that will stop iran from building a nuclear weapon. secretary of state john kerry says tricky issue still must be results.
in a virginia hospital near washington is in lockdown right now. willpolice are looking for this escaped prisoner who overwhelmed a security guard fired one shot, and escape. authorities say the suspect is wearing a hospital gown, he has no shoes, but he does have a gun. also, lawyers for the accused boston marathon bomber will call witnesses say. he prosecutor's have wrapped up their case against dzhokhar tsarnaev, his attorneys are using phone records trying to prove he was elsewhere and when the bomb materials were bought. new details this morning in the hillary clinton e-mail controversy. the associated press is the former secretary of state messaged staffers with an ipad and a blackberry after it was revealed that she used a private computer server. mrs. clinton said she did it so she could use with just one device. amazon is underscoring how serious it is about drones. the company has hired the former number two executive of the
airline's pilot -- shaun cassidy, the faa recently gave amazon permission to test outdoors, but that only apply to an outdated model. and the pilots weathered freezing temperatures out of men more -- myanmar. it will be the first flight powered by the sun to circle the globe. those are your top headlines. tom: very good. on housing, the health is in the eye of the beholder. manhattan is decidedly not denver. underwater mortgages. slowly housing returns to normal. david burson suggests it is the best market since 2014. i was stunned at the recovery of the rental market. when you look at rental
vacancies, we are well back to normal. is it a normal housing market? david: it is not quite normal yet, but it is the best has been since 2001. we had the best sales since the gloom -- that is not what we want. what we want a sustainable growth in housing, and this is the best since then. we have got household formations that are up stronger, job growth is pretty good mortgage rates are amazingly low, and affordability is an credibly high. tom: how come i cannot get a loan ? david: that is one of the few flies in the ointment. the credit boxes still to small. we do not want to way too big but it is way too small. tom: with your best number crunchers, they have got to make the so-called credit boxes bigger? david: it needs to be modestly bigger. if it were modestly bigger we would see a pretty big pickup in home sales. it would take some of the pressure off of the rental market but everything else is
looking good, so housing i think is sustainable right now. this is going to be the best year for housing of this expansion. most sales, most starts, home price gains probably moderate, but i would say that is good. brendan: david, in terms of square feet, houses are even bigger than they were before the recession. is that driven by credit conditions, or is it a long-term trend we cannot escape? david: it is a long-term trend. we have seen the sizes go up for decades, and family size of shrinks, people will want smaller homes -- that sibley has not happened. people want larger homes with more amenities. brendan: this is not credit-driven. this is the american dream? david: this is what they are doing -- they are biting larger home. and it is not last year or this year -- it is decades long. if rates go up because the economy is stronger, then -- anytime mortgage rates go up, it is negative, but the positive of stronger growth and a better job
market should more than offset the rise in rates, so we think the modest rate hikes later this year perhaps next year, it is not going to negatively impact housing very much. olivia: what if there appeared to be a diversions between new-home sales and existing home sales? new-home sales are going gangbusters, existing are a little soggy. david: can build for the market, so if people want big homes or starter homes, they can build for that. existing is whatever is on the market of the time, and the other thing is there or not that many interesting homes at the market. if you talk to the realtors they will see one of the big problems holding the existing sales is they are not that many homes for sale. olivia: are we seeing a rush of buyers trying to get in before rates go up? david: i do not think we are seeing that yet because i still think we are sometime away from those rates going up, but once rates go up, i think we will see that rest. we all we see that russian we will see a big pickup in sales later this year. tom: we are so jaded by manhattan real estate, it is
stunning what the stuff costs. give us a snapshot of what is going on in tulsa as you go into the spring season. are we excited about the market, or is it a single-digit plodding forward? david: still plodding forward, but not quite as plodding as it has been. things will be a little better but that is not necessarily bad. you do not want markets that are too hot. markets that are too hot eventually collapse on themselves. you want a sustainable market, and over much of the country today, we have that. tom: david berson with nationwide, thank you. interesting study on the housing market as well. we have got a twitter question. olivia: very germane to the conversation. nuclear negotiators are meeting in switzerland. they have until midnight tonight to strike a preliminary deal. this is a self-imposed deadline. it are twitter question today is -- what changes if we get a deal in
besides foreign affairs, like commodities. let's go to the terminal. here is the bloomberg commodity index. china, this is the boom "foreign affairs" subscriptions went [makes noise] -- [laughter] brendan: i'm wondering where bloomberg terminals obstructions went with this. tom: be careful. [laughter] olivia: stunning overnight, deutsche bank putting out a note we are on commodity markets, falling below $40 a barrel. tom: cue gideon rose on china. give us an update on where we are on china right now. what about the integrity of their system? gideon: this is fascinating. in fact, our next issue coming out in a few weeks is all about china. and what is going on inside. basically, china has managed to this extraordinary run over the last several decades. they have moved from totalitarian poverty to sort of middle income authoritarianism.
they have kind of picked all the low hanging fruit of development and modernization, now they are buffering up again the challenges, and it is going to be very exciting to watch what happens next. the anticorruption campaign that xi jinping is doing right now is an example of the entire regime's problems, challenges and potential hopes. tom: that was a massive shameless plug. get that other one more time -- look for china in "foreign affairs." olivia: we have a gong? brendan: tom has been battling a serious cold, but the "foreign affairs" prospect will him up. olivia: negotiators trying to reach a deal on iran's nuclear deal have bought themselves from time. they are close to an agreement on the main steps. it would give them until june 30 to resolve any other issues. the u.s. and others want to prevent iran from building a nuclear bomb. they want -- iran wants to end
sanctions immediately. in northern virginia, and manhunt is on from a prisoner who escaped from a hospital this morning. police say the suspect overpowered a security guard and stole his gun before escaping. roads around the hospital outside of fairfax, virginia have been shut down. the prisoner fled wearing a hospital down but no shoes was up in indiana, the state was the largest newspaper had made a huge statement about the new law that many say what allow determination against gays. the "indianapolis star" is urging governor mike pence and legislators to "fix this now." the paper says the state's image and reputation are at stake and hashtags will not undo the damage. brendan: syria's president bashar al-assad says he welcomes talks with the united states but not anything would be on the table, about the insurgency against his government and the rise of islamic state. aassad was asked how he sees the u.s. role.
president assad: what are we going to do regarding our political system our constitution, our laws, or our strategies. we came regarding the terrorism and making pressure on different countries like turkey and saudi arabia, and some in europe that support the terrorists politically and financially. brendan: assad says there must be direct talks with militants in syria in order to end the fighting. shares of electric carmaker tesla rose from a tweet -- rose after a tweet from ceo elon musk saying tesla will unveil a new product line that is not a car. there is speculation that it may involve a stationary storage battery. muska said he would unveil a consumer battery for homes and businesses. mcdonald's has a new tactic to get americans to start loving it
once more -- really, guys? they will experiment with serving breakfast all day is some of it san diego outletss stop breakfast foods count for -- at some of its san diego outlets. breakfast foods count for a big percentage. tom: why is this a big deal? the goal as they are desperate for revenues and they think this will do this breaksclusive o because same sale -- this will do it/? olivia: because the same sale stores have been going down. brendan: aaa has been -- ch ipotle has been an exhaustion the shock to mcdonald's. people love breakfast. olivia: and hash browns. tom: an interesting data check futures -11, the euro $1.0750, down .8%. the german spread is widening
out, we're not there yet but we make it there a lot bigger than we think. 11.24 percentage points difference between greece and germany. oil this morning -- $47.64 on west texas intermediate. olivia: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm olivia sterns here with tom keene and brendan greeley. it is time for my morning run street and it comes this money from the ceo and editor of "foreign policy." the editorial titled operation charlie foxtrot, which is to say operation cluster you know what. he writes -- gideon rose, editor of "foreign affairs," still with us on set.
does obama have a coherent strategy in place? or are we just scrambling to react to events that are moving too fast on the ground in egypt and yemen and elsewhere? gideon: it is a little bit of both. there is a broader alliance shift in iran like you did with cuba, like he tried to do with russia and so forth. on the other hand, the regional order is falling apart and basically you have two kinds of states in the middle east -- tierney and chaos. -- tyranny and chaos. the problem is neither of those are particularly good partners for us because the tyranny b reeds disorder in the future, and the chaos breeds disorder now. they have not handled it very well but it is hard to actually say what you would do better. olivia: right. brendan: gideon, this is my quote of the week from you, the
middle east is like "game of thrones" without the sex or the dragon. saudi arabia is now taking response ability for its own security. gideon: that is a good thing. on the other hand, you do not want them to have too much security. you do not want them to get out their own nuclear weapons from pakistan, let's say, in order to protect themselves, but the saudi's are essentially a triple, zealots, an article that this is the -- fanatical despotism that runs a gas station, and as long as i got stationed matters to the world economy, we are going to care what happens. at the minute we sort of stop talking about the gas coming out of the gas station -- they care a lot more about yemen than we do, and they are trying to take some pressure through there. we want to keep them calm, but we should not give the maybe to overall american foreign-policy. tom: very good. breaking news -- this is interesting. brian roberts and team setting up -- with their chief financial
officer. this is going to be an investment company $4 billion. there will be money ponied up by their partner angelakies and it is a carefully-worded press release about new opportunities. they go in there with a new opportunity of a time warner merger occurring, and inventors ventures as well. i do not know what to make of it. brendan: i am reading this for the first time as well. i would argue this is part of a way to reframe what they do in advance of what they are seeking right now, with his permission from the sec for this merger. the conflict has been -- where does innovation happen in the internet? does it happen at the center, which is the network which comcast owns, or doesn't happen at the edge, the periphery, new devices? what comcast is a as we will not just be good for america, we are
going to invest in the edge as well. i would argue this is a political move, but again i am seeing it for the first time as well. tom: i will not decide if it is a political move, but i will decide it is carefully worded. there is no question about it. there we are on comcast this morning as well. futures native 11, dow futures negative -- futures -11, dow futures -8. where are we on this? brendan: we are waiting. i've not follow that story very closely. what has shifted is net neutrality. we have less to -- if indeed these rules are upheld -- we have less to worry about in terms of competitive pressures from a combined time warner-comcast. it may be good news for regulatory approval on the merger. tom: there it is. comcast as well. then we will look to nigeria. olivia: we are. gideon rose, editor of "foreign
pictures from new york city, looking at sunshine and the arrival of april tomorrow. this is "bloomberg surveillance." today i am brendan greeley. retail sailors may have run out of excuses. ibm and the weather company said they will build tools that will help industries prepare for bad weather. inside the building, not looking at the sunshine. betty liu, what do you have on today to talk about the weather? betty: we are safe from the weather right now, brendan, but this partnership between the weather company and ibm, they can no longer a say in their earnings, oh, we had that sales because of the weather impact. this is supposed to allow companies to be able to use weather data more accurately, so retailers can know how to stop their inventory better, utility companies might be able to know better where power outages are going to be, etc. david kenney, the ceo of the weather company, will be joining
me. a first on bloomberg. also, the senior vp of analytic that ibm will be joining me to talk about why this makes sense for ibm. brendan: here is what i want to know about this -- what has changed in the last 10 years? the last 10 years i was working at swiss rate, and we were offering weather derivatives they doing the exact same thing forecasting to look at what earnings might be an hedge against them. betty: it might be in your pocket, brendan. your smartphone. brendan: why? what has changed? betty: now we have so may different touch points will stop our hardware, what we carry these days, our ipads, it is the internet of things. that is giving us more and more accurate weather data, so you are able to pull data -- not just weather of course it all sorts of data from these touch points. that is why i be in himself is
spinning $3 billion over the next four years because they want to capitalize on this -- that is why ibm is spending $3 billion over the next four years because they want to capitalize on this. they did not have the capacity to expand this on a broader basis, so this is where ibm comes in because ibm has the cloud service behind and where it can store and analyze all the data. that is how ibm plays into this partnership. the weather company would like to do this on their own, but they needed somebody to partner with them to scale this up essentially. brendan: this sounds like a good deal for ibm. they're trying to be are out there new job when they shed some employees, they're going to move into the cloud like every other technology companies. i also wonder when you look at technology, it has applications for labor as well, and we talk about on "surveillance" all the time underemployment. people cannot the hours they want because copies have been sold sophisticated about forecasting labor demand.
betty: absolutely, but if you are more egg -- if you are more able to accurately predict how you stock inventory, you will lose less on sales, and a will be a courteous to the bottom line, and that will help stabilize the company and create jobs. that is the circle. brendan: there you go, you have an interview with david kenny and bob picciano. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
tom: good morning everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." futures -10, dow futures -72. let's get to our top headlines with brendan greeley. brendan: officials familiar with the around talks say they are near a deal -- with iran talks say they are near a deal. they have until june 30th to finalize. secretary john kerry says "tricky issues still must be resolved." a virginia hospital is in lockdown right now. police say a prisoner overwhelmed a private security guard and then escape. authorities say the suspect is wearing a hospital gown. he has no shoes, but he does have a gun.
also crossing the bloomberg terminal right now -- prosecutor says copilot blames the germanwings tragedy has been treated for suicidal tendencies. investigators say andreas lubitz intentionally crash the plane. he joined the airline two years ago after finishing training in 2012. floodwaters receding today in india, but the death toll is rising. rescue workers have pulled 15 bodies from two houses hit by a landslide triggered by three days of incessant rain in indian-controlled kashmir. searchers are looking for a six-year-old boy trapped in the mud. more rain is expected in the coming days. two former federal agents are accused of stealing all they were on the silk road drug case. schemed money from bitcoin. connecticut is in the women's final four again. a 21-point win over dayton.
it was not a cakewalk. they trailed at halftime for the first time into season. the huskies will play maryland, go lady terps, two national semifinal games we played in teva, florida on saturday. those are your top headlines. tom: they're a good. on bloomberg radio through the day, 8:00 a.m., bloomberg television, left on the' -- luf thansa's legal woes continue, when we passed that horrific crash. the cdc's first anti-cigarette at -- anti-e-cigarette ad. and forfareed zakaria on education. olivia: muhammadu buhari is leading in polls after this weekend's election in the country. if he does indeed when come it will be the first transfer a party power in the country since
the military handed the government back to civilian control 16 years ago. gideon rose, editor of "foreign affairs" still with a sunset obviously under president goodluck jonathan, the economy initially did well. it has been slipping with the collapse in the price of oil there has been a terrible rise with the islamist insurgencies. what would change under buhari? gideon: it is a little to choose what -- it is a little too soon to say what will change but the big question is whether they will be -- not just if buhari w ins, but an acceptance of this when in a kong, clear, transfer of power. he did a wonderful book on the rise of a liberal democracy and nigeria is a question about -- is it a liberal democracy? the real question is -- if buhari wins, will be loser
goodluck jonathan, except the results come i will the army except the results come and will there be a clean and voluntary transfer of power? if that happens, that is even more significant than buhari's new powers because it the gin -- because it means the nigerian policy is rooted. olivia: will the christian oligarchs accept the buhar presidencyi?? gideon: the answer is possibly. the leaders from the north in the south have traded off power every eight years. that got a little bit messed up when one died early, and jonathan good luck took over before the eight years were up, but i think it can happen and the fact that the opposition is winning and we have a real election for the first time, essentially because it is really big news. if they can only keep it going forward and have the results be certified and clean and accepted, that will be a huge statement 400 area -- a huge statement for nigeria. brendan: biggest economy in
sub-saharan africa. we tend to look at africa north from south africa. should we begin looking south from nigeria? should that be our starting point for that continent? gideon: not quite. it does what you are looking for, the election and how it is handled. is african democracy and the african economic growth or we are seeing the last two years going to take root enough to continue forward that will make it a successful, ongoing region for investment for a stable political progress and so forth. that is why everybody is looking at the so carefully. olivia: how strong is boko rom in the country? does the military have the strength and the will to defeat it? gideon: it is looking better than it was that while ago. the government postponed the election and they went on offensive, they reclaimed a lot of territory. boko haram will be around for a while, but i think they are now on the defensive rather than on the offensive, in overtime, i think we can push back.
the real question is they have devastated this region so much that the story will not end even if and when boko rom is defeated because the region will be in turmoil and it will need a lot of eight and stability -- aid and stability. olivia: has goodluck jonathan lost power because of oil? "foreign affairs gideon: if you lose that, -- the question is if you have an elite compromise and the top guys live the country, at what point where your population not except that anymore -- accept that anymore? that has been a factor as well as dropping oil prices. olivia: we will be watching this, as i said, muhammadu buhari in the lead with just over half nigerian states reporting post-up it is time to answer our twitter question of the day -- we asked you what changes if we get a deal in iran?
the first question -- it will be even easier for iran to get the equipment. the march to the bomb will become a sprint. second answer -- small but positive for the world economy. third answer -- we will sell more arms to the region, oil prices will drop further, iranian leaders will claim victory, and iranian people die. gideon, if we do in fact get a deal here, is it inevitable that saudi arabia build a bomb? gideon: that is a fascinating question. they are threatening to do that, they want us to think they will do that. i tend to doubt it. there is an interesting question, it is a little bit like the israeli strike that the israelis always talk about doing on the iranian nuclear program but never get around to actually doing. i think although they will be tempted, they might not because we will probably extend our security umbrella to saudi arabia more aggressively to cover them, to head off their threat of doing that, but it is an interesting question. brendan: again, saudi arabia has
to take more control, more responsibly for managing its own region. does this get us out of this mess? gideon: again, the problem with giving them more space to take control of their own region is that their interests are not necessarily our interests, and the israelis and the saudis are not just opposed to iran because of the bomb -- they are opposed to iran's general influence in the region. the saudis in particular have a sunni-shiite rivalry. you are seeing a period in which the stable middle eastern order we have known for the last generation or two is collapsing and is under reassessment, and how that is all going to play out we do not really know yet. it will be fascinating to watch. thankfully the oil prices going down means this is not quite as crucial a region for the world economy as it used to be. olivia: you have to wonder to
what extent the collapse in the price of oil brought iran to the table, which brings us to the agenda. on my agenda, these iranian nuclear negotiations entering their final hours. questions reign over enrichment research and the pace of lifting the sanctions critically. iran wants the sanctions lifted immediately. the u.s. wants to verify, they want a gradual lifting of the sanctions. russians foreign minister -- russia's foreign minister sergei lavrov saying the chances are pretty good. brendan: secretary jack lew is in beijing. there's a lot going on between u.s. and china right now but at the forefront of these negotiations is whether or not the u.s. will join the asian infrastructure bank. we said pretty clearly that we are not and we are trying to figure out whether. that will be a long-term mistake. tom: very good for stop i am looking at the end of the quarter with equities flat commodities are not flat. they are stuck. very careful watching into the beginning of april. iron ore leads tehhe way down,
a huge show ahead for you. tackling the controversy over e-cigarettes. the cdc takes direct aim encourage americans -- miguel martin will be my guest. for reads cardiac joining me on his new book which says focusing too much on stem education is a mistake for this country. -- for readsareed zakaria appeared a well teamed up with -- and well teamed up with morgan spurlock for a new series called "connected." -- aol teamed up with morgan spurlock. signs of progress today in the iranian nuclear talks. an agreement is