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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  April 9, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EDT

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anna: saving face. these meets the deadline and pays its built of the imf. we will look at how much money the government has left. a french economist says the main cost of a british exit from europe would be to the u.k. british leaders will debate this topic later this morning. emerging markets on a tear. as stocks head for the longest winning streak in a year, we speak to legendary investor mark mobius. welcome to "the pulse" live from
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bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm anna edwards. greece cross the first of many hurdles today by paying its obligation to the imf. what is next for the country that is still locked up in talks with creditors over reforms? for more, we are joined by manus cranny in paris at the same event as greece's finance minister, yanis varoufakis. now that this bill has been paid, will greece make it this month? what is the next crunch time? >> hopefully so. there is one billion still to be rolled over next week. there is the 1.5 billion euros to be paid in pensions. greece hasn't had any financial aid since last august. it has been depleting cash reserves quickly and heavily. there's not much left in the
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greek offers. that's for sure. the republic has been tapping reserves from every source imaginable. there hasn't been a very heavy burden from the payments front. i think that was a technicality. the greek republic will not default on that debt. i think the april 24 meeting of the eurogroup is very important so that financial aid will be dispersed to greece. even if it is a partial front. there's so many payments that greece can't make without international aid. today, the governing council in frankfurt convenes over the emergency liquidity assistance program that extends to the greek banks. the greek banking sector is suffering due to deposit
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outflows since last december. anna: tsipras is giving a speech in moscow right now and he says russia is not the solution. how has the tsipras visit to russia gone down where you are? vassilis: i think athens never saw this as a big game changer, especially on the liquidity front. that is a european thing. i think tsipras tried to seed developments on the energy front and the agricultural front. i think he has managed to do well on those fronts. greece and russia due to being orthodox countries have close diplomatic and commercial ties for many decades. russia is seen favorably by many greeks. i think the administration managed to keep the thin red line's that are important to the
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cap on the -- to be kept on the russian front and at the same time gain some positive developments on greece beginning and energy hub for the balkans. anna: thank you very much vassilis: joining us from athens. yanis varoufakis, the greek finance minister is speaking in athens. he is at an event where manus cranny is also there, stalking varoufakis no doubt. he has also been catching up with the secretary general. good morning to you. what did he have to say? manus: he was his usual if use of self. i understand that he and varoufakis had breakfast this morning. this is the chateau of the oecd. my understanding is that they've
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already had their discussions. when you think of the heavyweights they are bringing in here george soros, thomas piketty all talking about the new way forward. my conversation turned around. he has met with tsipras and varoufakis on a number of occasions. what is the oecd's role in building trust with the rest of europe? it is a big one. >> we are trying to create a common ground, a common language, built on taxes and the collection thereof. the second is about corruption the fight against corruption. more competition, so you can fight against monopolies oligarchy, etc. and last but not least, to have a government that is functional
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and has the capacity to execute what is legislated and what is regulated. on these premises, we've built a cooperation where the greeks tell us what their priorities are and we inform them what are the best practices around the world, what has worked, what hasn't worked, what is more effective what we believe could work better for them. this is the arrangement we have with them. manus: anna, it is fascinating. we at bloomberg and many other institutions focus on the numbers. where is your opinion coming from here? that was angel gurria talking about how do you run an effective government? governance and execution. anna: here's somebody who might have a few ideas about that. thomas piketty. what did he have to say? controversial, sometimes, this
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economist. manus: absolutely. i think it was a rather daring statement by thomas piketty. this man is helping them deal with the media. accident? in his opinion, it could all be conspiracy. >> i think they are mistreating the greeks in europe but i think the eurozone as a rule is not doing well. even in germany the growth right now is less than what it is outside the eurozone. i think, overall, the eurozone countries have basically transformed the crisis which came from the private financial sector because of bad institutions. manus: the little bit of sound i did want to bring to you there goes to bloomberg business.
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you will be able to see the entire of interview. he basically said, i think brussels along with germany has got an agenda of where they might be trying to push and shove the greeks. that is the essence of it. also, a few issues about the eurozone overall. anna: manus, thank you very much. for more on greece, we are joined by ubs group's senior economic adviser. george, good to see you. greece has made a payment of the imf according to the finance ministry officials. do you breathe a big sigh of relief? george: i think every payment that the greek state manages to make is greeted with they got over the hurdle this time. there is serious risk, as your packages have outlined that later this month or in june, july august, when there are steep payments due, that will
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not happen. it is really down to politics. tsipras' visit to moscow kind of captures what i think is the fundamental fear of merkel and hollande for example that the sanctions against russia requires unanimity, so if one country breaks ranks, the whole thing falls apart. the integrity of the eastern part of the european union actually is not whole. it is politically at risk in many places. then there's the whole question about what if the greeks were to exit what the implications would be what kind of financial consequences. the trans-adriatic pipeline and so on. these are huge geopolitical
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issues. i'm not saying the germans and french would stand by greece at any price, but i think at the moment, it is going to continue to go down to the wire, as they say. i think they will find a way of trying to keep greece hold. anna: some kind of political solution is your base case. what kind of chances do you put on grexit? george: right now, i think it is pretty small. but if you permit me a wider horizon, i think it is inevitable that greece will be out of the european union, out of the monetary union. it is a question of how it happens and under what circumstances. it is allowed to happen. whether greece gets help on the way out, including a debt restructuring, whether it is a member or not, or whether it ends up -- [indiscernible] i think that is the outcome. it is a question of how we get there. anna: george magnus stays with us.
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we will talk more about the fed and the bank of england. here's a look at what else is on our radar. the bank of england is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low for the 73rd month when it releases its latest decision at noon today. the decision comes after fed minutes showed u.s. policymakers were split over whether they would raise interest rates in june. mylan has offered to buy rival drugmaker era go for $28 billion. the deal would create a generic medicine powerhouse. the offer is a 25% premium over tuesday's closing price. shell's acquisition of bg group is being met with shareholder skepticism. the biggest deal in shell's history failed to win over many investors, who worry that the premium is too high. the shares being used to buy bg fell the most since 2008 after the announcement. still ahead, as emerging markets
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stocks had for the longest winning streak in a year, we speak to the legendary investor, mark mobius. plus, later this morning, we will be debating one of the central issues of this election for british business. stay tuned for our bloomberg debate at 11:00 a.m. london time right here on bloomberg television. if you have any questions, you can see them listed on the screen. tweet them using the #bbgpoli tics. we will pick up those questions and get them to the panel. ♪
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anna: welcome back. minutes from last month -- federal open market committee meeting showed policymakers divided over the timing of a u.s. interest rate rise. meanwhile, the bank of england releases its decision today. for more, we are joined by bloomberg's jennifer ryan. how is uncertainty playing into the thinking at the bank of england? jennifer: as with any election, you don't know what business policies you are going to get. with this particular election, there's no clear majority for either party in parliament. what that means is, you don't know what shape the coalition government is going to take and what policies are going to be put in place afterwards. anna: is the election the biggest factor on the agenda
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the uncertainty surrounding that, or is oil prices and inflation more at the front of the thinking? jennifer: for the bank of england, they've got an inflation target. with inflation down at zero even some outliers have said it is not necessarily the time to raise rates. what you want to make sure is that that rate of inflation doesn't get entrenched in the economy. in parallel to that, you see that the drop in oil prices will have a limit on economic growth. you will see inflation picking up perhaps. anna: what are the chances of a rate cut? jennifer: the chief economist has said he thinks it is equal between an increase or a cut. if you look at what investors are saying, they are saying an increase in 2016. the bet is that we overcome this
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low period of zero inflation and the benefits of a drop in oil feed through into economic growth. anna: jen, thank you very much. jennifer ryan joining us with the latest on the bank of england. george magnus is still with us. investors, in terms of the u.k. suggesting that 2016 is when we are going to see a rate rise. what is your thought on the direction of rates are the timing? george: i think the direction of rates is going to be up. anna: not much further to fall. george: the issue really is here in the u k as in the united states as well, it is quite common for people to kind of think about it is only a question of time. if it is not this quarter, it will be next quarter. very often, that discussion doesn't take into account a
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really important part of the framework of the discussion. why are interest rates this low even after the cessation of qe? this is really about the fact that we've had a huge slump in investment. companies are saving huge cash. household savings rates are up. governments are trying to cut back the school deficits. there's strong intonation on the part of all economic actors to save and there's not enough investment. i think that the balance of risk is that over the next 3 6, 12 months, interest rates will be up a bit. i think the context in which that happens is not normal. anna: so the bank of england has as a priority its mandated priorities, the fact that it keeps talking about productivity in the u.k.
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it is questioning why productivity is so low. if they want to see an investment increase, is that going to be one of the things that drives productivity? would that be a reason to keep interest rates lower for longer? george: by now, i think that the chief economist and his staff and many of the governments hold the view that low interest rates are really not the game changer as far as capital investment is concerned and there are other things, other policy initiatives, which really lie more in the government sector. it is nothing to do with funding. it is nothing to do with financing. if you look at the levels of the equity markets and the implied cost of capital, it is very cheap for company to invest. they are sitting on this cash. anna: so what is it? george: a lot of it has to do with, a, we may have lost a
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permanent amount of output as a consequence of the financial crisis. so the amount of investment we would have to do to maintain that lower level of output is that much weaker. but it is also a trend. it predates the financial crisis. investment in national income has -- investment of national income has been declining. we have to think a little more smartly about what it is that would make companies invest more. a lot of this has been rehearsed in public debate especially surrounding the elections, about what the government should do in terms of infrastructure, what we should do in terms of the medium term. raising the level of employment would bring forth levels of investment. so it is not about money. anna: that is the long-term conversation. what about the wage conversation in the u.k.?
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do you see signs of wages increasing? that plays into a lot of the politics we are hearing about and what the bank of england might do with interest rates. george: again, the u.k. and the u.s. stand out like a sore thumb with the rest of the developed world. there are signs in some occupations and cohorts of the labor force that we are at full employment or close to full employment. there is a bit of a tick up in wages and salaries, but it is not very strong. particularly not as applied to the general labor force. so a lot of economists say we are now at levels where we should expect to see wages picking up. i think the central banks will wait. they can afford to wait to see if that view comes to fruition. anna: so all the conversation
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about whether the fed will put up interest rates in june, and the minutes suggest they split, would that be too soon for you? george: to be honest, it may -- if they did it in june, i think it would have quite a strong demonstration effect. however limited i don't think it would go very far, but i would say there is no urgency to do that. the situation might not be any different in september. you could turn that argument on its head. we might as well do it in june. if you think it has to get started. if there are other reasons why zero right are no longer appropriate. anna: george magnus, senior independent economic advisor at ubs. keep it here on bloomberg. later, we will be debating one of the central issues of the u.k. election. that is the question of europe.
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that is at 11:00 london time today. if you have a question for any of the panelists, you can see them listed on the screen if you have any questions, tweet us. we will be asking questions from twitter in the second portion of that debate. ♪
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anna: welcome back to "the pulse
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" live on bloomberg television and radio. let's check what is happening on the markets. this is a picture of the european equity markets. this is the currencies for you. euro-dollar up 0.71%. you can see the pound against the u.s. currency at 1.4781. if we bring up what is happening on equity markets, a strong day underway. european markets set to close at an all-time high. the stoxx euro 600 up 0.4% around an hour ago. looking pretty strong across european equity markets. a strong hand over from the asian equity session. things in hong kong looking very strong. investors in china are looking for closure in that valuation gap between hong kong shares and shanghai shares. that is one of the topics we
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will discuss with mark mobius. coming up, emerging markets stocks jumped today. what is behind the move? we will talk about that when we return. ♪
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anna: welcome back to "the pulse ." i'm anna edwards. emerging market stocks are headed for the longest winning streak. for more, let's bring in richard frost. the to see you. what is behind the surge in hong kong? richard: what we've seen in hong kong recently is a huge amount of money flowing across the border from mainland. in mainland, there are very few outlets in terms of investment.
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their stock market has become overheated, the valuations surging. as of the beginning of last week, their regulators eased rules, allowing more money to flow into hong kong. they've taken advantage of that and as a result, we've seen a huge surge in the stock market with records today and yesterday. anna: will the flows into hong kong continue? some are talking about the valuation gap between the shares in hong kong and shanghai. is that set to continue? richard: that's something that has been drawing mainland investors. the discount has widened in terms -- often, they are the same stocks trading in hong kong. those dual listed shares they are still cheaper in hong kong. they are looking here to try and buy bargains. they are allowed to buy some 10 billion yuan every day.
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that has been exhausted yesterday and today. previously, there was very little mainland interest in hong kong. now, you are seeing local investors pouring into the market in anticipation that those funds are going to increase. as a result, we are seeing increased volatility. anna: richard thank you very much. richard frost joining us with the latest on emerging markets. stay with us for more on emerging markets stocks. mark mobius will join us in 30 minutes time. here are bloomberg's top stories this morning. jamie dimon has said that last year's volatility in u.s. treasuries is a warning shock to investors. the ceo of j.p. morgan chase said the fluctuations in yields on october 15 last year was an event that is supposed to happen only once every 3 billion years or so. he added that the next financial crisis could be exacerbated by a
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shortage of securities. in the united states, a jury has convicted dzhokhar tsarnaev for his role in carrying out the 2013 boston marathon bombing. three people were killed and 260 wounded in the attack. the penalty phase of the trial when jurors decide whether to sentence him to death or life in prison, could begin next week. world bank president jin young kim is battling comments that china's launch of a new development bank is the end of u.s. global dominance. he told bloomberg there is a need for the aiib. >> if china wants to embrace multilateralism, there are 50 countries part of this new bank. that is a good thing for the world. there is no question that the need for infrastructure
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financing in asia, the needs are huge. there's no way that the world bank, the asian development bank, or any of the other institutions, could meet that need now. anna: it is a deal that would shake up the pharmaceutical industry. mylan has offered to buy drugmaker para go. it would be mylan's biggest purchase ever. more than four times the size of anything it has attempted. for more, let's bring in manuel. good morning to you. why this move? manuel: the latest move in the pharmaceutical m&a frenzy. big pharma are trying to identify potential targets as they try to book up their operations. for mylan, it could make sense to buy perrigo.
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at the same time, it could be seen as a defensive move if other companies decided to give it a try. anna: put this deal in the context of any broader m&a that might take place. there is a company that might be interested in buying one or both of these businesses? manuel: exactly. they have said they want to grow through acquisitions this year. they want to do more deals. mylan would be a perfect fit. it would get them out of exposure in the u.s. and emerging markets, which sits nicely with the strategy as well. anna: last year, we were talking about deals when u.s. companies come to europe to try today get advantage of favorable tax regimes. this is a broader story. why are we seeing so many deals
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in the pharmaceutical sector right now? manuel: i think we are poised to see a lot more. as big pharma are faced -- [indiscernible] they have to look for acquisitions to rapidly move and bulk up their pipeline. i think we are going to see more. it is interesting about these deals. we are talking about two tax inverted companies. mylan, which acquired non-us operations and was the legal headquarters to the netherlands. and also perrigo which moved the legal tax headquarters to dublin. regardless of whether this is a tax inversion deal as we saw last year, i think we will see more of these deals. anna: perhaps still feeling the
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effect of last year. thank you very much for joining us, manuel baigorri. coming up later this morning former chancellor in the u.k., lord lamont, and the chairman of the ae systems will be among the panelists joining us on bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think many people are tired with -- [indiscernible] many people will react by saying, too bad for them. i think the main cost will be incurred by britain. anna: that was the french economist thomas piketty speaking to manus cranny in ennis goose of interview, -- in an exclusive interview, talking about the idea of britain leaving the eu. let's talk about grexit. we heard from the greek prime minister who said the cost of no deal on greece would be greater for the european union then for greece. for more, let's welcome douglas renick in the studio. great to see you. tsipras saying the cost of no deal on greece is greater for
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the eu. what is your response to that? douglas: to be honest, i think the cost for greece would be quite significant. there's also a cost to the eu if it was to get into -- to give into greek amends thomas o they need to look at both angles. a grexit would cause a lot of damage to greece. anna: you recently downgraded greece's credit rating. you saw a significant enough reason to make that announcement, despite this publishing schedule. you must be concerned about repayment by the greek government. douglas: we think the fault is a real possibility. the reason we took it out this cycle is because we've been talking about the last few days, the imf repayment, which looks like it has been made. but the repayment schedule is pretty unrelenting. when you talk about will they won't they pay, for us, that is
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more a can to a triple c rating. anna: what would you need to see to have the rating move in the other direction? there's a number of drivers for these grades. what do you need to see in the development of this story to take the rating the other direction? douglas: i think you need to see quite a few things. it is going to be a long year. we are looking at the reforms submitted by the government to satisfy their creditors. that is halfway through completing the review. even if they complete the whole review, you then need to think about what happens in the second half of the year. greece is presumably still going to need extra funding from its creditors. that would require a new deal. whether you call that a program or not, it will probably come with strings attached.
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we have a long way to go this year before we can be confident that greece is back on the path to recovery. anna: is the syriza government and the body of the international bodies that are owed money, the creditors, are they talking the same language yet? it seems the greeks have been playing -- have been presenting plans and they have been saying they lacked detail. are we closer to being on the same page? douglas: that is the crucial thing. it has been slow progress up to now. you will see reforms submitted a lot of things in there that i would have thought the eurogroup would be quite keen on. that's something that greece has been asked to do for many years now. there is common ground there, but there are sticking points in terms of pension reform, for example. the government wants to push
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back on that. it is unclear whether they can strike a deal. we think they can. you asked earlier about the cost of a grexit. they are high for both sides. there are strong incentives to reach that deal. but it is really dragging out. we are talking about brinksmanship at every stage. that increases the risk that something could go wrong. anna: when you look back at how these negotiations have gone in the past in february, we saw and extension of one of the funding programs, and you saw that there was a compromise struck. that gives you some hope that compromises can be found. it does seem difficult to work out how the greek government which was elected on an ending austerity platform, manages to satisfy the demands of its voters and the creditors. douglas: the greek government actually is doing reasonably well in terms of opinion polls domestically. it has capital it can use at the right moment to strategically
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back down on some things. that is quite likely to be the outcome. but yes, i think the language is -- they are still finding a big gap between what they are asked to do and what they want to do. anna: how worried are you about the greek banking sector? does that give you cause for concern? how concerned have you been and how concerned are you now? douglas: we've downgraded the banks as well to triple c. we are saying that failure of these banks is a real possibility. capital controls is a risk. we have to look at the role of the ecb as well. the ecb has kept a tight rein on the amount that greece gets. the government is unable to fund itself very much through the banks because the ecb would see that as monetary funding the banks borrowing from the eurozone. i think in that context, you have to look at deposit outflows
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as well. we've seen 15% of the deposit base come out since december. that is comparable to 2012. we are concerned about the banks. anna: what about the possibility of grexit, greeks exiting? what likelihood do you attach to that? would it happen on purpose or by accident? douglas: there's a lot of different ways in which it could happen. i think it would be because this brinksmanship i talked about earlier there's a miscalculation in terms of negotiations. i think you see capital controls before a grexit as well. it would be more accidental then agreed grexit. anna: graccident, dreadful term. thank you for joining us douglas renwick. here are bloomberg's top
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headlines this hour. olson and lafarge have appointed eric olsen to lead their combined cement maker. the move comes as both teams look to overcome opposition to their planned merger. large -- zynga says that mark pincus will return to the role of ceo. pincus was the company's founder and chairman. he will replace don mattrick who has led the company since 2013. pincus has said the firm had a strong first quarter and he is confident in the outlook. orange is looking to invest in bitcoin startups. it would make the company one of the first to become interested in the technology behind the digital currency. like other carriers, orange is building up its mobile payment business. coming up on the program, the u.k. general election is like --
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is unlikely to give one party a clear majority. we will explain all the possible coalition combinations with the help of some legos. ♪
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anna: welcome back to "the pulse " live on bloomberg television and radio. with less than a month to go until the u.k. election, no one can say what will happen afterwards. a new poll suggests neither labor nor the conservatives will win a clear victory and might need a coalition partner. that is where the hard work begins. >> her majesty, the queen has asked me to form a new government. our country has a hung parliament, where no party has a majority. >> in 2010, david cameron formed a coalition in just five days. this time, it looks much harder. no one is expected to get an overall majority. you have the greens, the welsh nationalists, the scottish nationalists, the labour party, the u.k. independence party, the democratic unionist party.
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all wanting to have a say in what happens next. the forecasted result looks something like this. david cameron's conservative party, about 270 seats. ed miliband's labour party about the same. david cameron or ed miliband make it inside number 10 they will need the support of at least two other parties. but there is a problem. >> it is absolutely impossible that you can't would help one or other of the parties. >> we would never do any kind of deal with the conservatives. >> the parties have a lot of negotiating to do. the snp would effectively be supporting labor, but asking for less austerity and a nuclear weapons-free scotland. they are keeping their options open. nigel farage once a referendum
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and so does david cameron. the greens want an end to austerity, so they sit with labor. the irish party mostly sits with david cameron. the numbers clearly stack up in ed miliband's favor. but that gives the liberal democrats a lot of bargaining power. >> what a dismal choice. >> this is just a projection. the conservatives do a little better. what many want him to do is risk forming a coalition and go it alone. anna: fantastic. i'm joined now by my bloomberg politics coanchor, guy johnson. guy is hosting a debate on britain and europe. good morning. guy: it kind of leads back to what rob was talking about. who is going to form the next government? the labour party says that a
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referendum is bad for british business. the conservatives say that a referendum needs to be answered. today, we talk about the fact the fiction, and the future. we've got a great panel. john mills, lord lamont roger carr, all joining us downstairs. it is our debate, but it is also our audience's debate. we are going to have a twitter war. we are taking questions from our tv audience and from our twitter audience as well. anna: #bbgpolitics if you want to have your voice heard in the room. be in touch with us and we will try and put those questions to the panel. it is going to be a fascinating one. it is not a binary conversation. there is the possibility of a reformed europe. guy: everything is ill-defined. that is where i'm going to start
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it. we had thomas piketty talking about the fact that the u.k. would bear the cost of the next it and the european story would be fine. we don't know anything at this stage. we don't know what the reformed europe would look like. we don't know what david cameron would be able to achieve. we don't know if there was a referendum and that was in favor of an exit what the terms of that exit would be. how much would it cost britain? what would be the advantages? this is almost absent of facts in this debate. anna: we've done a lot of research, running various scenarios around any kind of grexit. you can get some very different views depending on what assumptions you make about whether the u.k. stays in and under what terms. guy: therein lies the problem. you don't know what those terms are until you actually pull the
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trigger on leaving. until you've got into the negotiations, you don't know whether or not leaving or not leaving is a good idea. anna: you don't know what u.k. policy to the rest of the world would look like if the u.k. were to leave. that could be more the point than what the policy is with europe guy:. guy: so we don't know whether the u.s. would be prepared to sign a u.k. trade deal. we don't know all these things. we don't know, we don't know, we don't know. it is almost entirely a hypothetical debate. quite fun and we need to talk about it the we could have a referendum. anna: fascinating views i'm sure. fascinating voices on the stage with you. we look forward to that. for those listening on bloomberg radio, "the first word" is next. for our viewers, a second hour of "the pulse" is next. we will be talking to legendary investor mark mobius about
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china, and about hong kong. we've seen some stunning moves in those markets. we will be talking to him about those when we return here on "the pulse." ♪
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>> grease meets the deadline. -- greece meets the deadline. the french economist says the main cost of a british exit to europe would be to the u.k. british leaders will debate it. emerging markets on a tear. we will speak to legendary investor mark mobius. welcome back to the program.
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welcome to those just waking up in the united states. this is "the pulse." i'm anna edwards. greece has crossed the first of many hurdles by paying its obligation to the imf. for more, we are joined by manus cranny, who is in paris. you caught up with thomas piketty this morning. what did he have to say? manus: i thought he was really quite controversial in his views. grexit. everybody is pontificating about whether greece would stay, would it go, would it be encouraged to
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stay? the franco german alliance and the pressure they might be exerting on greece. >> the attitudes of a number of people in brussels and berlin. it looks like they are pushing greece out. [indiscernible] [indiscernible] the country is not going to pay this for 20 years. we are postponing the discussion. manus: what to the greeks need to do to convince berlin that they can and should remain in the eu?
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>> they should talk less about just greece and more about the working of the eurozone. there is no solution for greece without a model solution for the eurozone. we need a redemption song for the public debt in the eurozone. we will keep separate account as to which country has put into the common interest. at least we would have a common interest rate, like in the united states. manus: behind me yanis fairfax s -- the greek finance minister is downstairs. anna: let's talk about brexit.
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bloomberg is going to be hosting a big debate about britain's role in europe. manus: thomas piketty has become a well-known controversial celebrity economist. does anybody in europe really genuinely believe what david cameron is proposing in terms of a referendum? >> many people on the continent are tired with britain desiring to exit. in the end, the main costs would be incurred by britain, not by the continent.
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manus: there you go. the celebrated famed mr. thomas piketty said it would be our problem, not theirs. quite frankly, i don't know how to finish that phrase on air. quite frankly, my dear, i will send it back to you. anna: thank you manus. we are joined by mark mobius. thank you for joining us on "the pulse." every investor must be watching what is happening in europe and wondering how this is going to resolve itself. what do you need to see happen to enable us to not talk about greece anymore? mark: there is no question that
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the greeks have to adopt some of the reforms. that is primarily the privatization of state-owned enterprises. if that happens, i think the troika will begin to accept them and help them with their debts. i think that is the key and i think it will happen. it is a matter of time. i don't think greek is going to leave the euro or the eu. they are a very important part of nato as you know. i think this will be worked out. it is a matter of being patient. anna: do you think greece should be looking elsewhere for support? you have been talking about what the chinese could help them out with. mark: the chinese can help them out with privatization. the russians can help them out as well. there are many countries that would be interested in investing in greece in the right situation.
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the greeks have to accept that they need to have some sort of privatization. that does not mean selling the crown jewels. you are allowing foreigners to come in and help manage. that is simply it. anna: is there anything that you know from your experience in emerging markets that helps you understand what is happening in greece? greece is not considered to be an emerging market, but some of what you are seeing must be a bit familiar. mark: greece was an emerging market when we started the first emerging markets in 1987. then it became a developed market because of its admission to the eu. but now it is back into our fold, which i am very happy about. this debate is going on in many countries around the world including romania.
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we have had to convince government officials to do more on privatization. there is more to be done and that is true in many parts of the world. what the greeks are going through is no surprise. anna: let's turn our attention to what is happening in asia. speaking about china and hong kong and more broadly, are there markets that have run too far in asia? mark: the asian market in china looks at risk. there should be corrections along the way. nobody knows when these will take place, but there is an awful lot of money going into the chinese market. i would say there is some risk there. i am not saying the bull market is going to be over, but a 20% decline is typical of what you would expect. anna: are you still buying with
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that in mind? mark: we have been buying shares very cautiously. we are very careful about what we buy to make sure we have good value. they have been dragged down by the bull market. the average discount is about 20%. anna: yes, it seems that you are in good company with that trade. many of those shares in hong kong investors are saying that they have seen strong growth in recent trading sessions is because people are betting that the valuation between the shares in hong kong and china will close. are you expecting the valuation gap to close? mark: definitely. this connect program has not really been completed. people like us have not been able to join in that program
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because our custodians refuse to accept the shanghai stock exchange system. there is a long way to go in terms of bringing the markets together. anna: mark, stay with us. mark mobius stays with us. here is what else is on our radar. the bank of england is expected to keep its benchmark interest rates at a record low. the decision comes after fed minutes showed u.s. policymakers were split over whether they would raise interest rates in june. mylan has offered to buy a rival drugmaker to create a generic medicine powerhouse. shell's 47 billion pound acquisition of bg group is being met with shareholder skepticism.
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many investors worry that a 50% premium is too high. the shares being used to buy bg fell the most they have. keep it here on bloomberg later this morning. we will be debating one of the central issues of the election campaign here in britain and crucial for business -- british business, that of europe. if you have a question for any of the panelists on the screen you can chime in using the hashtag. we will be asking questions from twitter in the second half of that debate. ♪
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anna: welcome back to "the pulse." live from london. we are back with mark mobius. thanks for staying with us. before the break we were talking about the next program that links the hong kong and shanghai stock markets. it was announced with great fanfare. some are suggesting it has not lived up to expectations. what needs to happen next? how can i deliver more? mark: there are billions of dollars waiting to get into that program. institutions like ourselves would like to participate, but we can't because our global custodians will not accept the shanghai system of safekeeping of shares. according to chinese regulations
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, the ownership transfers over to the shanghai side and our global custodians will not accept that. they really have to work this out. otherwise, billions of dollars will be waiting in the wings and the connect program will not work properly. anna: who needs to take action? is that something that regulators are legislators need to help with? or is it specific to the banking industry? mark: it is definitely the regulators. the regulators in china need to change the rules of regulation. title of the shared needs to stay with the foreigner or his custodial bank when he buys a share. anna: if you say that there are billions on the sidelines and people are impressed enough by what they see in china and hong kong, how can these markets go if the stock connect program delivers more fully? mark: what we are afraid of is that once we are permitted to go win by our global custodians
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the market will be too high that we have to be very careful about it. anna: what would be too high? what marks too high for you? mark: it is getting pretty close in the case of the asia. the good thing about the connect program is it gives us access to a lot of median or small side companies who may have not participated in the big search of prices. in that sense, there would be opportunities, but it would be difficult if the surge continues at this level. anna: away from the asian equity markets story i know you are keen on commodities at the moment and you have been talking about buying oil. are you buying oil markets or things related to oil at $50? where do you think the oil prices going to move? mark: we think the oil prices will move up gradually and by the end of the year you will see a rising price and next year a
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continuation of that. the demand for oil continues around the world and the supply and demand equation has not changed that much. shale oil will not be as big as it was previously. there are other factors that will allow oil prices to rise. more importantly, we are holding onto to oil stocks that are diversified. they are not only in exploration and production, but also in retailing, refining, and so forth. we have some protection on the downside. we believe oil, and commodities generally, will continue to be in demand and it is a matter of picking the right stocks to be in the most efficient producers. anna: where do you find those right stocks at the moment? mark: the big ones are in brazil, south africa china, and in india, to some extent.
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some of the big nations with the big growing demand for oil and gas would be the places to be. in the case of brazil and south africa, you have the resources. anna: how do you look at what is happening in iran and the conversation around sanctions? do you think that that is going to be material for the conversation around oil? if we see iran welcomed back into the international fold and their oil back onto the market, is that going to be something that makes you rethink that a list sentiment toward the oil price? -- that bullish sentiment toward the oil price? mark: i don't think there would be much impact. iran has been exporting oil. in turkey you will find that they are buying oil from iran. the problem for iran is that they are not getting the right price because of the sanctions.
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they have to accept a very low price. when sanctions are over, they will raise the price and i don't think the supply will be that much greater than it is now. the good thing about the end of sanctions in iran is it opens up another huge emerging market. they have an active style market and a lot of wonderful companies and very good managers. the surrounding companies would be benefited, such as pakistan, turkey, and so forth. the outlook is very brightest they are able to reach some conclusion on those negotiations. anna: that is interesting. where would you look in iran if we did see an end to the sanctions environment? would you buy into the middle class? what is the story you would invest around? mark: i go to the consumer stock , those stocks that will begin to really move and benefit from what is happening. incidentally, there are some
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stocks in saudi arabia that have operations in iran. the main be opportunity in that direction, as well. iran has a thriving stock market and we believe there will be lots of opportunities. anna: can i talk to you a little bit about india? this is a market that has caught a lot of people's attention because of what narendra modi is doing there. who are you most impressed by? the prime minister or the central bank governor? mark: i think both. it is very difficult to choose. maybe the central bank governor is a little bit more impressive but the prime minister plays a very critical role. he is a real leader. he is very eloquent. i think he is going to make some changes that will benefit india for many, many years to come. i think that combination of conservative, but yet very vocal central bank governor who is
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willing to take some chances and a leader who has the charisma is terrific. anna: what are you looking at in india right now? moody's is citing the economic prospects for the country as one reason they have upgraded their aspects -- outlook for the country. how are you expecting -- expressing optimism? mark: the demand for motorcycles, all vehicles is going to be growing as a fast pace -- at a fast pace. telecoms. there is some risk but at the end of the day, telecoms will do very well. and retailers. because the growing middle class -- the retail stocks will do very well. there were lots of things in india to buy because it is such a huge country. anna: i'm told that the central bank governor said there is no reason to panic. he said that just this morning. there is no teen -- no need to
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panic about routine appreciation of the currency. are you concerned about the appreciation of the currency? mark: no, i'm not panicked at all. india is a big importer. if they can buy things cheaper, the cheaper oil has benefited them tremendously. a stronger rupee would be very beneficial to the economy. it is not necessarily a one-way street to read a stronger currency can help the country. anna: your specialty is emerging markets. you must be keenly watching what happens in the united states with regard to interest rates. do you think the fed policy on interest rates has the ability to move emerging markets in the way it did a couple of years ago? mark: i don't think so. it is pretty much discounted as a result of what happened a few years ago when the tapering panic took place.
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people are expecting it, but it is not happening as fast as people expect. i think because of the distance between what the u.s. is doing and what europe, japan and china are doing -- they do not want to stronger dollar and if they raise rates too much that will impact the exchange rate. in europe, papering the continental and with japan doing the same and with china moving quickly you are going to get, globally much greater liquidity than we have seen. anna: mark, thank you very much for joining us. mark mobius. we will be back. ♪
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anna: welcome back. coming up we will be debating one of the central issues of this election, the question of europe. that is at 11:00 london time. if you have any questions, you can tweet them. we will be asking questions from twitter in the second half of that debate.
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if you want to ask any of the questions to any of the gentleman listed, they will be here at bloomberg. that is coming up at the top of the hour. meanwhile, you can get in touch with me on twitter. ♪
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anna: welcome back to "the pulse." live from london. let's check in on the markets. jonathan: the global equity run continues. the gains in china spread to hong kong. all-time highs on the stoxx 600. we go through an all-time high that we have not seen since yesterday, but that goes all the way back since 2000.
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it has been 15 years since we were playing with these kind of levels. the ftse is up as well. for europe, greece pays back the imf 450 million euros. they have indeed made that payment. in the bond market, yields start to go in little bit lower. the three year note yield is down. greece has still got some big problems, some big issues to solve. elsewhere in the bond market bond yields are near an all-time low on the german 10 year. the portuguese two-year the yields on that turns negative for the first time ever. some remarkable moves on bond yields.
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the euro is down by 0.3%. let's get a quick check on the pound. down by 0.5%. the bank of england meeting today -- set to stay on hold for the 73rd straight month. boring. anna: thank you very much. there he nicely sets us up for our next conversation -- very nicely sets us up for our next conversation. why is this like 1950? >> we are looking at the position david cameron finds himself in. it is the last month of his premiership. what was the last time we saw these economic circumstances right after the end of world war ii? obviously, the losses are much different and the rebuilding
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that needs to be done is a very different situation, but this tells you the depth of the damage from the financial crisis. rates unchanged as the economy heels. anna: fascinating comparison. how much is the election uncertainty weighing on what the bank of england has decided? the next time they meet is a day after the election. >> it is an inflation targeting central bank. it sees inflation below the target. with the uncertainty ahead of the election, it makes sense to keep rates on hold. you have uncertainty around any election. with this vote, you have no clear majority set to be won by any major political party. you don't know what referendums will be set out or what will be decided. anna: is that the biggest issue driving bank of england, uncertainty around the election? >> the inflation issue is
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something to focus on. just across the channel you have risks of deflation taking hold in the ecb -- in the eurozone and the ecb buying government bonds. we are seeing that there are signs of recovery and the recovery has continued in the first quarter but we are seeing inflation well below the target. anna: thank you very much. mark mobius is still with us. if i could get your thoughts on the u.k. situation right now. you are an emerging markets investor. your perspective is much more global. one of the big conversations we are having a bloomberg is there -- about the relationship between the u.k. and the eurozone.
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a british exit from the eurozone would have ripples to emerging markets, i'm guessing. mark: no question, there will be impact. we are invested in eastern europe and there will be implications. the interesting thing is that if the u.k. left, the eu would lose a strong critic, which, in some ways, has been good for the european union because you need people inside criticizing some of the policies. on the other side, if the u.k. leaves, things would go much smoother for brussels. they would not have to deal with a lot of the disputes that are brought up by the british. it will be good on one side and battle the other. anna: would you have a preference? mark: at this stage, i think it is probably better that the u.k. left because then i think a lot of the problems with greece and other countries in the eu would be more easily done and resolved
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with brussels. but it will be a loss, no question about that. anna: that is an interesting one. why would you come to the conclusion that would -- that it would be better for the u.k. to leave? there is a lot of uncertainty as to what the relationship would look like if the u.k. did leave. mark: i think brussels could then work more easily to bring europe together, to regularize all kinds of issues legislation, rules, so forth and so on. in that sense it will be easier for europe to become more cohesive on the continent. as i said, it would be a loss because they would lose someone inside the european union who criticizes and who makes sure that no issue is left unsaid. anna: is the u.k. holding back
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the european integration project, you think, then? mark: i do think they are holding back the integration project. not because they do not want a strong euro, but simply because they did not agree with a lot of what is going on within the continent. anna: let's talk a little bit about something closer to your investment portfolio and that is another country we have not visited yet in our conversation we saw the elections. does the handover of power change your view on investment in nigeria? any change in the prospects for the country? mark: yes, definitely. a big, big change. the new president will be able to confront boko haram and the militants in the niger delta more effectively. secondly, the fact that he has been in politics for so long means that he will be able to tackle some of the administrative issues that are
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so important to the country and corruption is the key problem for the country. he will be able to do a lot to stop the corruption that we have seen so far. anna: similar to the conversation we had around iran, when you look at nigeria and investment opportunities there are you looking to the nigerian consumer? is that where your focus is? mark: yes. and we do that through the banks. the banks in nigeria have gone through a big reform program. many of them are working very well and are expanding. growth in the economy will help the banks. the banks will be the beneficiary of that. i believe with this new leader the banks will do quite well. anna: how do you view the election process that took place? is it significant to you that there was violence and there were questions raised around some of the procedure, but we
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saw a peacetime handover through a democratic process from one party to another within nigeria? is this something that plays positively to the investment outlook? mark: yes very positively. goodluck jonathan should be congratulated and praised for his behavior and allowing the new president to take over and making it a peaceful and over. that was very, very good and i think it is going to be historically good for the country. anna: mark thank you so much for joining us. mark mobius. coming up, you may have heard about it -- we talk about the u.k. election issue of the hundreds of thousands of on live in homes spot by foreign investors. ♪
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anna: welcome back. there is a growing phenomenon in the u.k. called buy-to-leave. foreign investors pour more money into u.k. real estate. homeowners are not even bothering to pick up the keys in some cases. the backlash to this phenomenon it seems to be growing.
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caroline: there are almost half a million homes are vacant in the u.k., people not even picking up their keys. considering we don't have enough affordable homes being built in the united kingdom, the backlash grows. many people are bringing this to the fore. we have already heard from a labour mp, she is the hopeful for the next year as mayor of london, and she wants to give counsel tougher powers to penalize those who leave their homes empty. many foreign investors from asia want to invest in the asset class that has been rising in value, but don't want to be putting people to live within that asset class. they don't want the flats filled. they use the premium of a brand spanking new flat. they want to raise taxes on
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those who allow their homes to stand empty for more than 12 months. interestingly, we are already hearing from the council in islington, one of the most densely populated areas they are already saying that they are consulting to look at legal requirements that force these sorts of flats to be used, to be leased as apartments. they want to make it an offense if they stand empty for anything more than three months. there is a project us -- just down the road from here where more than half of the flats stand empty. kensington and chelsea, they have added a 50% annual council tax fee if flats are left unfurnished for two years. anna: this is quite a political
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conversation. the building companies, how are they reacting? caroline: they have jumped the gun. they have all been trying to prevent the likes of their flats being sold to foreign buyers. particularly, we have heard fascinating conversations when people are marketing these flats in asia. they are making false claims. they are being articulated as a five-minute walk from harrods, when they are five miles away. the building companies are saying, they are not directly looking to market them to foreign buyers. it is the asset that everyone wants. anna: thank you very much. caroline hyde.
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that sets up our next conversation very nicely. let's continue the conversation on the housing market and the general election. jeremy, thanks very much for coming in. this buy-to-leave phenomenon. 460,000 properties stand empty in the u.k. is that the magnitude of the problem? jeremy: it is a big number and it is growing. you can see how many building projects are going on in london. it is getting worse. we've got this problem, this contrast in london, this oversupply. anna: do we need legislation? do we need the government or local councils to step in and stop people from buying houses if they are not going to live in them? i know that takes us into the realm of politics. is that a likely progression? jeremy: it is certainly
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possible. there are already tools in the bag that the council can use. the point that is messed is that -- missed is that the investors buying these properties are often underpinning these developments anyway. the foreign investors are taking the units. anna: the problem remains that a lot of people are looking for homes in the u.k. and a lot of people cannot find them because there is not enough housing. jeremy: shilique tell you something frankly? i talked to a lot of building companies, agents, surveyors, occupiers. most people regard these numbers as really crazy because the
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likelihood of them achieving that without real, radical action planning, lending bringing forward more public land for development, is the opposition just going to melt away? is lending going to get easier? it is not going to happen. people are saying, the numbers have election written all over them. anna: is there nothing the political world can do? no easing of planning restrictions? no overriding of local planning? jeremy: it is a severe problem and it needs radical action. you cannot just tinker with it at the outside and expect something major to change. otherwise, we are going to carry on which must have -- with muc h of the same. we need some radical action. anna: what with the radical action look like?
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jeremy: it would look like bringing forward more supply rather than talking about demand. it is land banks. clearly, it is in their interest to keep their values up and prices up. land banks is one. although it does not seem as much of an issue as it was a few years ago. release of public land, easing of planning restrictions. it can take years for those ideas to actually come to be delivered. anna: thank you very much for joining us. jeremy leaf joining us. coming up at the top of the hour on bloomberg television, we will be debating one of the central issues of the election. that subject is europe. that debate takes place at 11:00 this morning the top of this
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hour. you are looking at a live shot of the room where the debate will take place. guy johnson will be hosting that debate. we have four guests on the stage and we will be putting your questions from twitter to them. see you on the other side of a short break. ♪
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anna: welcome back to "the pulse."
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live on bloomberg television and streaming on your ipad and we are joined by anthony in moscow. tony, prime minister tsipras met with putin yesterday and today sits down with the prime minister of russia. what did his meeting with putin produce? >> it was high on rhetoric and low on specifics. tsipras made a speech in moscow where he said they did reach agreement on a gas pipeline from russia to greece, which will be meeting greece posco's need -- greece's gas need. essentially, apart from warm
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words, this is been a meeting which has promised tomorrow, when greece needs to take its medicine today. anna: what can he expect from today's meeting? >> we may get a bit more detail in flushing out what was agreed between tsipras and mr. putin yesterday. again, i suspect we will have more warm words about cooperation. culturally, historically, economically. mr. putin did observe that trade between the two countries was down 40% last year. there was a lot of ground to be made up. anna: thank you so much for joining us. prime minister tsipras having met with putin yesterday and today sits down with the prime minister of russia. that conversation is coming up a little bit later on today. we will continue to watch those
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developments and how that feeds into the conversation around the grexit and how it can do a deal to meet the requirements of its creditors. april 24 is the date in the diary that looms large. that is it really for "the pulse." keep it right here on bloomberg television. for our u.s. viewers "surveillance" is up next. for those on this side of the atlantic, we will be debating one of the central issues of this election, the u.k. election europe. the debate takes place at the top of this hour. we will take a short break before that. these people on this screen here, they are taking part in that debate. guy johnson will be hosting the conversation.
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the labour party has said that they do not want to see a referendum on europe. the conservative party are the ones who are suggesting we should see a referendum after the election. the former chancellor of the conservative party will have a thing or two to say about leaving the eurozone. there is the stage where this debate will be taking place. guy johnson's getting things underway. warming up the audience, perhaps, ahead of the debate. those are the gentleman who will be taking part in the conversation to come.
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stay with us on bloomberg. you can follow me on twitter. if you want to get in touch with the panelists, use the hashtag. ♪
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>> that this is "bloomberg surveillance." olivia: will there be enough cash for the next bill for greece? m&a mania.
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what is the next sector up for sale? it is not tiger's fault. who is to blame for golf's declining popularity? this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from new york city. i'm olivia sterns. brendan greeley is joining me. tom keene is actually off today. brendan: greece is all paid up, at least for now. they repaid about half $1 billion to the imf today. greece is trying to persuade europe to unlock billions more in aid. >> i think they are mistreating the greeks and also are mistreating themselves. the eurozone, as a ruler, is not doing well.


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